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   Santa Anita - Strub Stakes (G2)

   By BRAD FREE

   1. SKIPASLEW 2. GOOD REWARD 3. ROCK HARD TEN

   SKIPASLEW ran super in the San Fernando, his first start in nearly two months, and he could be the upsetter in a wide-open Strub. SKIPASLEW battled on a hot pace, stuck in there to midstrech, then weakened late to finish third. The race signalled a return to top form for the hard-trying colt, whose best races have come from just off the pace. He should get that trip here, positioned right behind the speed. When the leaders weaken, he can get first run. GOOD REWARD has not raced on dirt since late 2003, but there is no questioning his class. He beat a good field in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby, has freshened and aimed for this dirt race since then by trainer Shug McGaughey, and figures to come back firing. If he can handle the surface switch, he can win it. ROCK HARD TEN will be underlaid off a half-length win in the seven-furlong Malibu. He is expected to improve with a prep under his belt and this longer ditance, but the parimutuel question is, how much of an advantage does he really have? On paper, the good-looking colt's advantage is minimal. CASTLEDALE ran well in his comeback,while LOVE OF MONEY looks like the one to catch.

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   Feb. 4 2005 3:22pm
2. 0 likes

   Santa Anita - Strub Stakes (G2)

   By DAN ILLMAN

   Hendrix

   Both lifetime wins came on the lawn, and he failed to reach the winner's circle in his 3 previous Graded Stakes races over his preferred surface; have to respect this barn, and the colt will make the important 2nd start of the form cycle after a confidence-boosting win; he also should sit a nice ground-saving trip after breaking from the inside post position; still, one has to wonder if he can handle some toughies on the main track; others entice more on the win end.

   Skipaslew

   It's been over a year since he last reached the winner's circle, and it could be argued that he does his best running on a wet racetrack; ran a pretty courageous race in the San Fernando as he was up on the pace throughout, and still held on doggedly in the stretch; may improve with that race under his belt, and a solid ground-saving, pace-tracking trip may be in the works; have to respect this barn, but a minor award may be his ceiling today.

   Good Reward

   Beautifully-bred Phipps colt came into his own on the grass at the end of 2004 so it is very interesting that McGaughey tries this spot for the 4yo debut; certainly is bred to run well on dirt (dam was a very nice one for these connections), and he did break his maiden over the main track; still, he looks to be a better runner over the turf course; taking a wait-and-see approach.

   Castledale (IRE)

   Won the Santa Anita Derby over this course and distance last year, but didn't have the easiest of trips in Louisville, and then went on a long vacation; returned with a solid effort in the San Fernando, and one could surmise that he was a bit short for that race - his 1st since May 1; Mullins wins at a very high percentage, and note that this colt improved by leaps and bounds 2nd off the last year; contender with a late move.

   Love of Money

   This lightly-raced runner took all the money in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after his dominating performance in the Pennsylvania Derby; showed speed as usual at Belmont, but couldn't hang with the gritty Funny Cide, and faded badly in the stretch; he won his debut easily, and that indicates that he can fire fresh, and he should make the front in here without too much of a fuss; should be prominently-placed when the field turns for home; don't overlook.

   My Creed

   Multiple stakes winning gelding has had trouble at this Graded level, but he may be stronger in his 2nd start of the form cycle, and his Beyer Speed Figures are on the improve; have to like the fact that he has some tactical speed, but he hasn't gained stretch ground in his last 3 races, and will have to show a stronger late punch today; others entice more on the win end of things.

   Rock Hard Ten

   When he's well-behaved and on his best game, he is one of the top horses in training; was so impressive running down some good 3yos in the Malibu, and he is probably more effective at this 2-turn route; has always shown an affinity for this surface, and tuned up for this with a quick 6f work on 1/30; Stevens may be able to park his big colt just off Love of Money in the early stages, and he could gain 1st run on the final bend; obvious threat.

   Imperialism

   This gray got very good over this surface earlier last year, and he may have been a bit short when 4th in the San Fernando (drifted in when tiring in the lane); another that could be sharper in his 2nd start back, and he is capable of a triple-digit Beyer on his best day; late-runner may be left with too much to do when the field turns for home; prefer 'underneath.'

   Diamond Fury

   Ultra-expensive 2yo purchase paired up Beyer tops in his last 2 races, but he has yet to face this caliber, and will need a strong Beyer surge in order to compete with these; recent quick works indicate that he has retained his form, and he may be hanging around the early leaders down the backstretch; Baffert at a price is enticing, but this guy must show more.

   With Distinction

   He's shown flashes of brilliance in his short career, and he chased a solid runner in Outta Here in his recent prep race; nicely-bred son of Storm Cat still has some upside potential, and he has the tactical speed to find a decent position despite the wide post position draw; may factor in the bottom of exotics at a price.

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   Feb. 4 2005 3:23pm
3. 0 likes

   Those of you familiar with the SA Derby last year ought to love this race ---

   Castledale beat Rock Hard Ten and Imperialism in a shocker at 30-1 odds.

   Since then Castledale has only raced twice with no sucess.

   Rock Hard Ten is a fan favorite, going off at 3-1 in last year's SA Derby finishing 2nd - DQed to third.

   Imperialism was my pick in the Derby last year - And Oh how things might have been different if the Derby wasn't run in a mud bath. Imperialism is still trying to get all that mud out of his eyes and lungs from closing through the field.

   Imperialism is a great closer and never seems to get a good trip. Unfortunately, the public gives this horse alot of respect and seems to go off at lower odds than one would expect since he hasn't cracked a WIN or a PLACE at the finish line in his last 7 outings. Solis is riding Imperialism for the first time which may be just what the doctor ordered.

   That said - This is a rematch of the 2004 SA Derby and should be a great race. Really need to keep an eye on the tote board to see where the value lies come post time.

   Picks -

   8-7-4 TRI 20

   8-4-7 TRI 20

   8-7 EX-B 200

   Good Luck

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   Feb. 4 2005 4:29pm