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Atlanta at Philadelphia NFC Championship Game

Philadelphia looks to finally take that next step as it hosts its third straight NFC title game and competes in its fourth straight overall. The Eagles, behind QB Donovan McNabb and off an impressive divisional playoff victory over Minnesota, appear finally ready to erase painful memories of championship games past. However, another standout quarterback, Michael Vick and the Falcons stand in their way. Atlanta was equally, if not more impressive in ousting St. Louis last week in the divisional round. Philadelphia has been installed as a 4-1/2 point favorite and the total has dropped from 42 to 38 as winter weather is expected to grip Pennsylvania on Sunday. Here are some of the top trends for the NFC title game, which happens to be our FREE FoxSheet of the week! See all of the in-depth FREE analysis by visiting FoxSheets.com.

Top StatFox Power Trends Favoring Atlanta:

PHILADELPHIA is 1-5 ATS (-4.5 Units) in home games vs. awful

passing teams averaging 150 or less passing yards/game. since

1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 15.8, OPPONENT 12.3

ATLANTA is 6-0 against the MONEY LINE (+6.6 Units) after 2

consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers over the

last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 22.0, OPPONENT

18.7

ATLANTA is 6-1 against the 1st HALF LINE (+4.9 Units) vs. good

passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game in the

second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score

was ATLANTA 15.9, OPPONENT 11.1

ATLANTA is 23-3 against a TEASER LINE (+13.5 Units) after gaining

4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game since 1992. The

average score was ATLANTA 22.9, OPPONENT 22.1

Top StatFox Power Trends Favoring Philadelphia:

PHILADELPHIA is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) when playing against a

good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season

since 1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 21.9, OPPONENT

18.5

PHILADELPHIA is 17-2 against the MONEY LINE (+16.2 Units) in

home games versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.5 rushing

yards/carry since 1992. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 25.5,

OPPONENT 18.2

PHILADELPHIA is 17-7 against the 1st HALF LINE (+9.3 Units) after a

win by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The average score

was PHILADELPHIA 14.1, OPPONENT 7.5

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 against a TEASER LINE (+7.0 Units) vs. poor

passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game. over the

last 3 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 25.6,

OPPONENT 13.3

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New England at Pittsburgh AFC Championship Game

The AFC title game is also being played in Pennsylvania, and that contest is also expected to be affected by mother nature. The game pits two teams that have combined to win 31 of their 34 games this season, marking the first time that has happened in Championship play since the 1998 season. Pittsburgh, 15-1 on the season and undefeated at Heinz Field, amazingly finds itself as a three point underdog in Sundays showdown. Oddsmakers have apparently put a lot of stock in Bill Belichicks success as coach of the Patriots, their impressive win last week against Indianapolis, and the fact that the Steelers are starting a rookie quarterback. Who can argue, as the New England is the defending league champion and boasts a two time Super Bowl MVP in QB Tom Brady. The game certainly has the makings of a potential classic. Here are some of the top trends favoring each team for this weeks game. See the top StatFox Super Situations, the rest of the top Trends, plus a computer score projection and StatFox staff opinions by registering for as little as a week of FoxSheets service at just $19.99!

Top StatFox Power Trends Favoring New England:

NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) vs. good defensive teams who

give up 17 or less points/game over the last 3 seasons. The average

score was NEW ENGLAND 21.0, OPPONENT 8

NEW ENGLAND is 16-1 against the MONEY LINE (+16.2 Units) after 3

or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.2, OPPONENT 14.6

NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 against the 1st HALF LINE (+5.9 Units) vs.

good passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA in the second half of

the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEW

ENGLAND 14.0, OPPONENT 6.8

NEW ENGLAND is 28-4 against a TEASER LINE (+15.3 Units) vs. good

passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second

half of the season since 1992. The average score was NEW ENGLAND

20.2, OPPONENT 15.7

Top StatFox Power Trends Favoring Pittsburgh:

PITTSBURGH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a top-

level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average

score was PITTSBURGH 23.7, OPPONENT 13.6

PITTSBURGH is 7-0 against the MONEY LINE (+9.5 Units) vs.

good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game this

season. The average score was PITTSBURGH 25.9, OPPONENT 14.3

PITTSBURGH is 8-1 against the 1st HALF LINE (+6.9 Units) versus

the 1rst half line in home games this season. The average score was

PITTSBURGH 15.1, OPPONENT 6.7

PITTSBURGH is 24-1 against a TEASER LINE (+20.8 Units) vs. good

passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA since 1992. The average

score was PITTSBURGH 23.8, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 1*)

phantom

posted by phantom

Jan. 21 2005 4:54pm

1 replies

  1. 0 likes

    NFL Playoff Handicapping: A Look Back, A Look Ahead

    Various Trends, Tips and Angles for Analyzing the Postseason

    (StatFox) -- The beginning of the NFL playoffs means just 11 more games in the season to â€Â

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Jan. 21 2005 4:57pm

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