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JETS/STEELERS - Not interested in this one. Our number on the game is the Steelers by 7, which gives the Jets some wiggle room for a cover. But we can see this game going either way. By either way, we mean a comfortable Pitt cover or the Jets squeaking under the number. In either scenario we don't see the Jets coming away with a win. Tough week for the Jets after having traveled west last week. Pennington had a stomach flu earlier in the week and back up Quincy Carter missed practice for personal reasons leaving the Jets to practice with two no names at QB before one of the biggest games in Jet history! We're rooting for the Jets, but just don't see it.

NFL 7* FALCONS -6.5 over RAMS

This season, the NFL was filled with games where what *should* have happened didn't. As the saying goes, they don't play the games "on paper" and that's why they play the games.

But the playoffs are a different animal. The playoffs are generally more predictable because teams play to their talent level, unlike the regular season where any number of variables come into play such as travel, injuries, motivation and so on. Sure, every now and then a playoff team forgets to show up and comes in flat, but by and large, teams play to their talent level come January.

With that in mind, these two teams don't belong on the same field together.

We've been saying it all year, and have been burned once or twice this year for it, but we're sticking to our guns. The Rams are a terrible football team with a terrible coach.

Any team that goes 8-8 in the regular season and comes into a playoff game -24 in turnovers does not belong in the game. But here we are, with the Rams even coming into the game with a little momentum!

The Rams rushing "D" is ranked 29th in the NFL and they'll be up against the best rushing game in the NFL with the Falcons with Michael Vick , Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett.

True the Rams are built for turf and this game is on the turf in the Georgia Dome, but let's not forget the Rams were 3-6 on the road this year (Falcons 7-1 at home) and lost their last 5 road games, never coming closer than a 17 point margin!!

The Falcons had no trouble getting to Bulger earlier in the year (Atlanta won 34-17) sacking him 5 times.

We're a little worried about Atlanta starting slow, having had the bye week AND having rested their starters in the last two regular season games. Coming from behind is NOT a position Atlanta wants to find themselves in this week and really is our only question mark with the game.

Our number on the game is the Falcons by 11 and we feel the margin will be even larger than that.

This is a game where we're figuring what *should* happen, will.

In that case, this game is a mismatch and Atlanta should easily move on to the NFC championship game next week.

NFL 5* EAGLES -8 OVER VIKINGS

Circumstances in this game very similar to the Falcons/Rams game. Here we have an elite team going up against a team that has no business being in this game.

Let's not get caught up in the Vikings win last week over Green Bay. They beat a Green Bay team that quite frankly, wasn't very good. Let's also not forget that these Eagles spanked those very same Packers 47-17 a few weeks ago.

You'll find it hard to believe you're watching the same Viking team as you saw last week as they figure to struggle BIG TIME against one of the best secondarys in the NFL. (Not to mention Moss limped off the field last week in Green Bay)

Randy Moss could probably leave this game at Halftime if he wants.

This Viking Team lost 4 of it's last 5 games and figures to still be celebrating last weeks victory when they walk into this hornets nest in Philly this week.

The Eagles gave away their last two regular season games as they had everything locked up by week 14. So in reality, this team is 13-1 this year with NINE of those wins coming by MORE than 10 points!

Lke the Falcon game, we're a little worried about the Eagle layoff as not only did they have the bye week, but they also have been resting starters since week 14.

Also a tad worried about the chemistry of the team after losing Terrell Owens for the year. But then again, last time we checked, T.O. didn't play Defense which is where this game will be won. Neither team had trouble putting the ball in the endzone this year but check the defensive numbers. The Vikings gave up an average 27 points per game on the road this year while the Eagles held opponents to 15 points per game at home!!!!

Once again we're banking on what *should* happen here.

Our number on the game is the Eagles by 11 and we feel the margin will be even more than that.

This game is another mismatch where the cream should rise to the top.

We hate laying points, particularly in big games, but that's the only way to look in this one.

Not even close...................

NFL 5* COLTS +3 -135 OVER PATRIOTS

Well, the NFL saved it's best for last this weekend as this is what a playoff game should be!

Let's start by warning you that we are going AGAINST our own numbers in this one. As a matter of fact, when comparing our numbers to the lines this week, our largest discrepancy is in this game as we make the Pats a solid 7 point choice.

But there are other variables at work here this week.

For starters, there's been a rule in effect several years in the NFL that states no contact with a receiver after 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. But that rules was rarely enforced over the years. Until this year that is. The reason it's been enforced this year can be traced directly to last years AFC championship game between these two teams as the Colts complained big time about being bumped all game long. The rule has even been referred to as the "Peyton Manning Rule".

The enforcement of the rule obviously has had a HUGE affect on the scoring in the NFL this year and one only needs to look at the Colts record setting offensive season as evidence of that.

This rule obviously favors the offense, but in this game the rules presence is magnified even more by the fact that the Patriots will be without their TWO starting cornerbacks Ty Law and Tyrone Poole.

We respect the Pats "D" as a whole, but it's not as if this is a "great" defense. This unit gave up 24 to the Colts, 34 to Pittsburgh, 28 to Cincinnati and 29 to Miami!!

Peyton and Company will have no trouble finding the end zone this week and that type of game favors the Colts big time.

Belichick pulling out all stops trying to slow this Colt offense down. It was reported today that they intentionally left the field uncovered this week in what was a bad weather week in New England with lots of rain in hopes of creating a slower, sloppy field. Think Belichick is a little worried???

The Patriot bus stops this week as the Colts advance to the AFC Championship for the 2nd year in row.

phantom

posted by phantom

Jan. 15 2005 11:12am

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