FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs UAB
Florida Atlantic
Last year they returned 10 starters including their QB Smith and finished 5-7. This team got hit very heavy by graduation this year. They only return 11 starters, 2 offensive (0 linemen) and 9 defensive (3 linemen).
The offensive unit is less experienced as they replace the entire O-line. The offensive line is much smaller and one of the least experienced in the Sun Belt Conference. The must also replace 4 year starter QB Smith as well. The new QB Van Comp does have some experience and is very capable imo. The WR unit is less experienced and they also lost their top 2 WRs as well. Let's assume QB Van Comp can step right in for QB Smith - Who is he going to pass too and more importantly who will block for him? Overall, I expect a drop in production from this offensive unit this year.
The defensive unit will be more experienced this year as they return 9 starters. Not sure if that is actually good news for this program. This unit gave up over 450 ypg and 34 ppg last year. Overall, I believe there is room for improvement from this group in 2010.
To sum it up - the Owls have to fix a horrid defense and build an offensive line from scratch, and that is too much to do and hope to be competitive in the early part of their schedule.
UAB
Last year they returned 17 starters including their ace QB Webb and finished 5-7. This year they return 17 starters, 8 offensive (4 linemen) and 9 defensive (3 linemen) but must replace QB Webb.
The offensive unit is less experienced than last year. The loss of QB Webb is key but QB Isabelle should fit right in. A solid offensive line coupled with the experience at the WR positions should help QB Isabelle settle in. I expect a bit of a drop in production from this offensive unit this year.
The defensive unit will be more experienced this year as they return 9 starters. Same as FAU - this unit must improve on last year's numbers. Overall, I believe there is room for improvement and expect a better performance from this group in 2010.
To sum it up - the Blazers will be a more balanced team offensively in 2010 and if their defensive can pitch in a bit, they should improve on last year's 5-7 record.
Match-up
Last year these teams played and UAB won 56-29 as a 7 point favorite. Let's look at the numbers. UAB had a total of 622 yards (330 pass + 292 rush) vs FAU who had 440 yards (310 pass + 130 rush). The difference in 2010 will be a much weaker FAU team that is completely rebuilding their offensive unit. There is no way QB Van Comp can match the 310 yds of passing this year. Sure UAB looses QB Webb but the offense will be just fine and should have enough firepower against this Owl defense. Both defenses are suspect but the Owls will not be able to take advantage this time around.
Stats
FAU is 10-20-1 L10 yrs / 0-4 L4 ats vs non-conf opponents (48%)
FAU is 1-4 ats L5 games in Sept (20%)
FAU is 5-31 ats L36 SU losses (14%)
UAB is 12-2 in home openers (86%)
UAB is 5-2-1 ats L8 home games (63%)
UAB is is 41-9 ats L50 SU wins (82%)
Perfect KEY Stat - UAB is 11-0 ats L11 SU wins (100%) > If they win, they cover!
Perfect KEY Stat - FAU is 0-9 ats L9 SU Losses (0%) > if they loose, they don't cover!
To sum it up. I expect much of the same thing this time around. I don't expect 85 points to be scored but when it's all said and done UAB will come up on top once again. I'm betting that the UAB defense will be able to limit the re-tooled FAU offense this year. And finally, let's hope that Schnellenberger holds true to form in these early September non-conference games.
Projected Line: UAB -7
Projected Score: UAB 35--17
Lay the points with confidence.
GL,
Rockman
posted by rockman
4 replies
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0 likes
GL Rockman! I can't wait!!
posted by ricky
July 30 2010 5:35pm -
0 likes
UAB -13 1/2 NOW
posted by coolrick1
Aug. 6 2010 9:48pm -
0 likes
bump ^^
posted by ricky
Sept. 1 2010 9:28pm -
0 likesGuys,
2 TDs is a bit much. I was hoping for a line under 10. They should cover but there is much better value out there. I would pass on this game.
USC -21, Mizz -12 & Mich St -23 just to mention a few
Lay the BIG chalk in week 1 - don't worry - they cover very often!!
take care,
Rockman
posted by rockman
Sept. 1 2010 11:29pm