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Monday Trends and Notes

St. Louis fell to 5-5 SU and 3-6-1 ATS with last week’s 37-17 loss at Buffalo. The up-and-down Rams have won and covered two of five road games this year and are only 7-14 straight-up and 6-15 against the number on the highway the last three years.

The Rams, who have scored an ATS win just once in their last five outings, have lost their last four non-division road games by 21, 19, 22 and 21 points against the spread.

Special teams have been an Achilles’ heel this year for St. Louis, which ranks 30th in punt coverage, and 31st in kickoff coverage, kickoff returns and punt returns. Veteran punter Sean Landeta was released on Friday and Kevin Stemke was signed. In the Buffalo loss last weekend, the Bills returned an 86-yard punt for a score and had a 53-yard return that set up another TD.

The Rams are on current spread slides of 12-19 in conference games and 6-13 when installed as a road pup between 3½-to-7 points. They’re not the offensive juggernaut they have been in previous years, but they’re still ranked sixth in yards per game (370) and 11th in points. However, they’ve failed to exceed 23 points in four straight games.

One factor behind the St. Louis offensive decline is that the running game has slipped a bit as compared to recent years. St. Louis, which ranks 18th in the league in rushing offense, is led by Marshall Faulk with 676 yards while rookie Steven Jackson has 337 yards on the ground.

The Rams have covered only five of their last 15 games on grass and are on an overall spread slide of 16-25-1 the last three years.

St. Louis is ranked 27th in the league in points allowed (25.4) and 28th in yards allowed (355.8). The Rams are also ranked just 27th in takeaways with a mere 10, but that is two more than Green Bay has.

Defensively, the loss of end Grant Winstrom to Seattle in the off-season has hurt the Rams. Teams now double-team speed rusher Leonard Little, who has just 4½ sacks so far after garnering 14½, 12 and 12½ the past three seasons.

The Rams are 9-12 straight-up and 8-13 against the number on the road in Monday night affairs. However, they 3-2-1 ATS in their last five Monday night outings, including a 28-21 win over visiting Tampa Bay as a seven-point chalk on October 18.

Green Bay won straight-up for the fifth consecutive game in rallying to beat Houston 16-13 as a three-point road chalk last Sunday night. The Packers, 6-4 SU and 4-5-1 ATS, are 3-1-1 against the number in those five victories.

Quarterback Brett Favre, who has been sacked just five times this season, will be making his 200th consecutive start. He leads an attack that is ranked third both in passing yards per game (224) and total yards (335). However, he’s had a tough go of it in his last two starts versus the Rams, both of which were played at Edward Jones Dome.

In the 2001 playoffs, Favre tossed six interceptions as the Rams rolled 45-17. Then last year in Week 7, Favre broke his thumb early in the game as the Packers committed four turnovers in a 34-24 loss.

Green Bay has covered seven of its last 10 non-division game when playing with revenge while the Rams are on a 2-11 spread slide on the road versus avenging opponents. The Packers, though, are 2-4-1 against the number as a chalk this year and 15-18-1 as a chalk the last three years.

Green Bay has gotten better production from its running game of late, but the Packers are beat up in the offensive backfield. In their early-season four-game losing streak, the Packers averaged just 85.5 yards per game on the ground. But then Green Bay averaged 168 yards rushing in reeling off four straight wins. Last week, though, they were held under 100 yards by the Texans as Ahman Green suffered sprained rib cartilage on the Packers’ first offensive play.

Green, who was limited to a season-low 35 yards on 20 carries last year versus the Rams, is listed as questionable for this contest. His backup, Najeh Davenport, who was deactivated for last week’s game against the Texans, has been slowed by a hamstring injury and it’s unsure how he will hold up Monday night as the game-time forecast calls for temperatures in the 20s and a chance of snow.

Davneport, who practiced incident-free indoors on Friday, was replaced last week by Walter Williams, who had been promoted from the practice squad. But Williams suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half against Houston and is listed as questionable.

The only two healthy halfbacks are No. 3 Tony Fisher and recently signed former Brown James Jackson. In addition, backup fullback Nick Luchey is day-to-day with a separated left shoulder.

Green Bay, which is 11-12 versus the number at Lambeau Field the past three seasons, is 1-1 SU/ATS on Monday night this year. The Packers posted a solid win at Carolina in Week 1, but were embarrassed by offensively challenged Tennessee 48-27 at Lambeau on October 11. Still, they’ve cashed the Vegas ticket in 10 of their last 13 under the Monday night prime time lights, including five of seven at home.

Defensively, the Packers are ranked 19th in the league in totals yards allowed per game (335) and 23rd in passing yards (224). And, they’ve been susceptible to giving up big pass plays this season. Through 10 games, the Packers have allowed 38 pass plays of 20 yards or more, up 47 percent from a year ago when Green Bay had allowed 27 in the same number of games.

Totals Tip: Green Bay has sailed over in five of its last six games and in 20 of its last 34 when laying points. The Rams have gone over in four of five on the road this season and three of four as a dog in 2004.

phantom

posted by phantom

Nov. 29 2004 3:49pm

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