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Notes and Trends for CFB on Thurs 11/11

FLORIDA STATE at N.C. STATE

Florida State, 7-2 SU and 3-6 ATS, did not cover the 31-point spread in last week’s 29-7 win over visiting Duke. The 11th-ranked Seminoles have scored the pointspread victory just once in their last six games.

Sophomore quarterback Wyatt Sexton again relieved Chris Rix under center last week and is set to make his sixth career start Thursday night in Raleigh. He’ll try to jump-start an offense that has failed to produce more than 20 in any of its four road games this year.

The Seminoles are 0-4 against the spread in those four highway tilts with outright losses at Miami Florida and Maryland. They have failed to cover their last three highway games by margins of 14, 10½ and 14½ points.

Florida State does have a stellar defense, though, as FSU is allowing an ACC-low 14.4 points per game. It is ranked first nationally in yards allowed per carry (2.01) and second in rushing yards allowed per game (66.2).

In ACC games this year, the favorite has covered just 12 of 33 games. FSU has covered only six of its last 16 as a road chalk and is 1-3 against the number the last four years in its final highway game of the season.

Under Bobby Bowden, Florida State is 19-3 straight-up in games played in the state of North Carolina.

Florida State is on slides of 1-2 straight-up and 0-3 against the number versus the Wolfpack. Last year in Tallahassee, FSU scored a 50-44 double-overtime win as the two-touchdown favorite. Two years ago in Raleigh, the ‘Noles went down by a 17-7 final.

N.C. State dropped to 4-5 SU and 2-6 ATS with last week’s 24-14 loss to visiting Georgia Tech. The Wolfpack, who need to win their final two games over FSU and East Carolina to become bowl eligible, are 2-4 straight-up and 1-5 against the number in their last six games.

The Wolpack have covered seven of their last eight as a dog, but are just 1-4 in their last five when getting points at home. That includes a 14-point loss as touchdown home pup against Miami on Oct. 23.

Last week against Georgia Tech, the Wolfpack were held to only 131 yards in the final three quarters. Turnovers once again proved to the Pack’s undoing as they have 13 turnovers in their last three games, all of which were losses. Twenty-one of N.C. State’s 26 turnovers have come in their five losses.

Quarterback Jay Davis, whose primary backup Marcus Stone is still out with a knee injury, has tossed eight interceptions in the last two games. Also, with an average of 9.6 penalties per game, the Wolfpack are rank 114th out of 117 Division I-A teams in the country.

The Wolfpack have covered five of their last seven versus the Seminoles. Chuck Amato, who was a Florida State assistant from 1982-99, is 2-2 straight-up against FSU at N.C. State.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

UTAH STATE at ARKANSAS STATE

Utah State dropped to 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS after failing to stay inside the 5½-point number in last week’s 32-25 loss at Louisiana-Monroe. The Aggies’ fifth straight loss will result in the dismissal of head coach Mick Dennehy at the end of the season. Dennehy, in his fifth season at the Utah State helm, carries an 18-36 record into the contest.

The Aggies, who will be playing their fourth straight road game and third in three weeks, are 1-5 against the number as a road pup this year. They’re 9-22-1 against the number in that role since 1999, and have covered just once in their last dozen lined games overall.

Utah State, though, has won straight-up three of the four meetings with the Indians. After Arkansas State won the first meeting in Jonesboro in 1995, the Aggies have scored home wins over Arkansas State in 1999 (20-14), 2000 (44-31) and last year, when Utah State rolled 49-0.

The Aggies, who have dropped straight-up nine consecutive non-Saturday games, are only 3-22 straight-up in their last 25 road games. They also come into this game averaging a mere 1.9 yards per carry.

Arkansas State, 2-7 SU and 6-3 ATS, lost 45-31 as a four-point chalk last week at Idaho. However, since the 2002 season, the Indians have covered seven of their last eight games in Jonesboro.

Running back Antonio Warren has been hot of late, averaging more than 115 yards rushing in his last seven games.

Last year’s 49-0 loss at Utah State marked the Indians’ worst Sun Belt defeat to date. They have, though, covered six straight at home when playing with revenge. Arkansas State is also 14-2 against the number in its last 16 straight-up victories.

Home teams have covered 16 of 22 Sun Belt Conference games this year.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARKANSAS STATE

phantom

posted by phantom

Nov. 11 2004 5:06pm

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