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MLB 1st-Half Season Package
Premium Plays
Matchup: Atlanta at Chicago-N
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) JURRJENS, J vs. (R) WELLS, R
Play: Atlanta (ML -101)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 6, 2009 @ 1:05:12 PM EDT
Atlanta looks to improve its 3-0 record they have vs. the cubs so far, it was an odd series in Atlanta where the Braves made two comebacks and had to reschedule game three due toa rain out. Nonetheless, the Braves are looking to make a move in the NL east with their best pitcher in Jurrjens. JJ has been so soild on the road a he has accumulated a 2.44 ERA in 48 innings of work. I expect him to shut down the cubs offnse tonight.
Pick Courtesy Of: Pat Hawkins
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Matchup: Pittsburgh at Houston
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) VASQUEZ, V vs. (L) HAMPTON, M
Play: Houston (-1.5 +130)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 6, 2009 @ 1:02:50 PM EDT
I like the Houston Astros in this game vs the Pittsburgh Pirates...Houston starter M.Hampton has completely dominated the Pirate hitters this year to the tune of a 3-0 record and a miniscule ERA of 0.90...Hampton has owned the Pirates in his career, 13-3 with an ERA just over 2...the Pirates are scrappy but haven't played well on the road...they are 17-38 in their last 55 road games...2-8 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series...15-36 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter...21-51 in the last 72 meetings in Houston...4-12 in the last 16 meetings...the Astros are 9-1 in Hamptons last 10 home starts vs. a team with a losing record...20-4 in Hamptons last 24 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game...28-7 in Hamptons last 35 starts as a favorite...Astros run line is the play here
Pick Courtesy Of: Bill Marzano
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Matchup: San Diego at Arizona
Time: 9:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) SILVA, W vs. (R) GARLAND, J
Play: Arizona (ML -163)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 6, 2009 @ 12:58:10 PM EDT
The Diamondbacks hold so many clear edges that it's worth laying this tariff.
Let's start with the pitching matchup. Walter Silva, a clear stop-gap with Jake Peavy and Chris Young out, goes for San Diego. Some pitchers have misleading ERA's. Silva does not. He's as bad as his 0-2, 8.86 ERA shows. He has given up more walks (14) than he has strikeouts (10). The scary thing is that Silva has pitched most of his innings at Petco Park, the best pitcher park in the majors.
On the road, he has an obscene 16.70 ERA! He is averaging less than five innings per start. So he needs serious bullpen help. However, the Padres bullpen has serious fatigue issues with closer Heath Bell and Edward Mujica having worked the last two games and Joe Thatcher and Luis Perdomo unlikely to pitch because of high pitch counts in yesterday's extra inning loss to the Dodgers.
Speaking of that loss, it has to be physically and mentally draining to the Padres because they staged a miracle rally in the ninth scoring five runs to tie the Dodgers before losing. The Dodgers still out-hit San Diego, 18-6. Now the Padres go on the road where they are 12-26, that's tied for the second-worst road mark in the majors.
Unlike the Padres, the Diamondbacks have their confidence restored returning home after taking two of three at Coors Field from a red-hot Rockies team.
The Diamondbacks are just 15-28 at home, but I see a turnaround coming. Jon Garland has held the opposition to one run or none in three of his last six starts. He'll be able to tame a weak Padres offense that ranks last in runs and batting average.
Adrian Gonzalez is the Padres' lone legitimate threat and he's in a slump going six-for-34. His last homer was back on June 23.
Pick Courtesy Of: Stephen Nover
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Matchup: Florida at San Francisco
Time: 10:15 PM EDT (Mon)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) WEST, S vs. (R) CAIN, M
Play: San Francisco (-1.5 +130)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 6, 2009 @ 1:00:50 PM EDT
Given proper run support, Matt Cain can be expected to deliver winning results for San Francisco. And since we expect he'll get some help from his offense tonight, we don't mind laying an extra run for a better price with the Giants in the opener of their midweek set at Candlestick vs. Florida.
Cain, selected to the NL All-Star team, has been very consistent, with a 9-2 record and 2.48 ERA this season. And when he was given over 6 rpg of support during his first 13 starts this season, Cain recorded a 9-1 mark, and deserved a better fate than his no-decision last Wednesday at St. Louis when limiting the Cards to just one run in 7 IP. Expect the San Francisco offense to do more business vs. young Marlins starter Sean West than the first time the Giants saw him June 8 in Florida, when the Marlins won 4-0. Since then, West has recorded a 6.30 ERA, and the Giants should take advantage tonight. Play Giants on Run Line
Pick Courtesy Of: The Gold Sheet
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posted by vegastaco
July 6 2009 6:22pm -
0 likes
only 7 days left for my picks package i hope some of you may have won by following or fading
MLB 1st-Half Season Package
Premium Plays
Matchup: Washington at Colorado
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) ZIMMERMANN, J vs. (R) HAMMEL, J
Play: Under (10.0 -120)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 7, 2009 @ 12:04:38 PM EDT
This is the kind of pitching matchup that is misleading to the oddsmaker. Jordan Zimmerman and Jason Hammel don't have fancy numbers and the game is at Coors Field, so the oddsmaker is hard-pressed to make this total less than double-digits.
But there's nice value going under double-digits because these two pitchers are clearly under the radar screen and have rested bullpens to back them up. Rockies closer Huston Street did protect the Rockies' 1-0 win last night, but threw only six pitches in getting the save.
Look past Zimmerman’s 4.52 ERA and you'll find a 1.12 ratio and a 75-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio with a healthy number of ground ball outs. The rookie had some bumpy spots early, but his outstanding talent is starting to blossom as evidenced by a 2.12 ERA in his last five starts. This includes outings against the Red Sox and Rays.
The Nationals' weak defense also got a huge upgrade with the recent addition of center fielder Nyjer Morgan, one of the fastest players in baseball.
Hammel hs given up two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts. The right-hander has walked just 19 batters in 80 2/3 innings. He held the Dodgers to one run and no walks in eight innings during his last start.
The under has cashed in seven of Colorado's last eight games. The Nationals are 21-8-1 to the under in their last 30 games and 21-7-1 to the under versus a right-handed starter.
Handicapper: Stephen Nover
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Matchup: San Diego at Arizona
Time: 9:40 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CORREIA, K vs. (L) DAVIS, D
Play: San Diego (ML +138)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 7, 2009 @ 12:04:38 PM EDT
Doug Davis had very solid numbers this season which has made a hot topic in trade rumors but the Diamondbacks are only 4-13 in his starts this season, including losing each of the last five outings even though Davis allowed just two earned runs in 21 innings. Davis does walk a lot of batters which has kept him from posting more dominant numbers and lasting longer in games. Arizona is just 2-7 in his home starts and he has just one win at home this season. San Diego is not a strong road team but the travel here is minimal and the Diamondbacks have lost more home games than San Diego has lost games on the road. The Padres are hitting .278 in the last ten games against left-handed pitching and San Diego is a .500 team for the year against lefty starters. Arizona is 1-7 in the last eight home games and the Diamondbacks are batting just .231 overall in the last ten games. San Diego is 8-8 behind Kevin Correia and he made five straight quality starts before a rough outing his last game. Correia rarely allows walks and has actually pitched better away from home.
Handicapper: Joe Nelson
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Matchup: Texas at Los Angeles-A
Time: 10:05 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) NIPPERT, D vs. (R) LACKEY, J
Play: Over (9.5 -110)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 7, 2009 @ 12:04:38 PM EDT
TUE LATE PITCH TOP TOTAL
(927) TEXAS (NIPPERT) at (928) LA ANGELS (LACKEY) 10:05 PM
As a team, the Rangers hit a monstrous .349 against Angels starter John Lackey; their team OPS ranks as an unheard of .969 with an extended sample. Five regulars (Hank Blalock, Marlon Byrd, Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) hit better than .300 and all five have hit multiple home runs off him. Lackey's career ERA against Texas is 5.79 in 28 starts. The Rangers' Dustin Nippert, who will make his first start of the season, holds a career 6.42 ERA and a 6.92 ERA vs. the Halos.
Lackey is coming off two quality starts, but both came against offenses that sport a lowly OPS (Arizona .681 and Baltimore .694 L/7 games). Lackey has blown up in four of his eight starts allowing four more earned runs and 10 hits. Lackey has pitched at home only twice allowing a combined 19 hits and 8 runs in 14 innings. Despite his last two starts, something isn't right with the presumed ace. He has been more than hittable since coming off the DL and the Rangers have a bone to pick with the former 19-game winner. Lackey faced the Rangers on May 16 in Arlington, his first start off the DL, and a contest where he was tossed after two pitches. The first was behind the body of second baseman Ian Kinsler, while the second hit Kinsler's left side.
Nippert, sidelined since the beginning of the season with a strained muscle in the back of his right shoulder, is coming off the disabled list to make his first start of the season. The right-hander had a 2.25 ERA in five games (four starts) during his rehab assignment, but struggled with his command in all four outings. One of Nippert’s strengths at the minor league level was his ability to keep the ball in the park as he allowed only 18 homers in 451 2/3 innings, which translates to one every 25 innings. He hasn’t been able to translate that success to the major league level. In 2008 the right-hander allowed five long balls in 32 innings, 2007 saw him give up five in 45 frames and in 2006 he allowed five in 10 innings of work.
Eric Cooper is scheduled to call balls and strikes. His tiny K-zone won't help either pitcher and force both starters to challenge hitters in the strikezone. The last three games in which Cooper graded Lackey, two in his 19-win season, all three went OVER the total. The OVER is 9-2 in Cooper's last 11 games behind home plate.
The OVER is 6-2 in Lackey's last eight home starts with the Vegas total set at 9.0-10.5.
TOP TOTAL Play on the OVER
Handicapper: Lawrence Prezman
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Matchup: Florida at San Francisco
Time: 10:15 PM EDT (Tue)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) JOHNSON, J vs. (L) ZITO, B
Play: Under (8.0 -115)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 7, 2009 @ 12:04:38 PM EDT
Have to love the under.
J.Johnson has pitched 2 games at San Francisco and has allowed 3 ER's in 13 innings!
B.Zito's last 3 vs Florida have been outstanding! He's gone 18.1 innings and has allowed only 8 hits and 2 ER's!
Florida struggles vs lefties especially on the road. Batting only .237 scoring 3.22 runs per 9 innings.
What puts this over the top is Umpire C.Reliford who has the most liberal strike zone in the Majors.
His games average 7.62 runs per with a 2.61 K-BB ratio!
Runs at a premium here.
Handicapper: Jamie Tursini
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posted by vegastaco
July 7 2009 3:36pm -
0 likes
MLB
PHILLIES -150 WIN
LA DODGERS -145 LOSS
LA ANGELS -130 LOSS
BOSTON -160 WIN
TAMPA -155 WIN
GL
posted by takis28
July 8 2009 5:17pm -
0 likes
MLB
CWS -125 LOSS
GL
posted by takis28
July 9 2009 7:28am -
0 likes
Sportsbook.com Free Pick's Pick Pack
MLB 1st-Half Season Package
Premium Plays
Matchup: Los Angeles-N at New York-N
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: New York-N (ML +140)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 9, 2009 @ 11:02:29 AM EDT
**8** MLB DARK HORSE DANDY **78% ANGLES** Livan Hernandez is coming off a horrible outing in his last start as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits and four walks in just three innings of work against the Phillies. This was the fourth time this season he has allowed five runs or more and in the previous three instances, he followed it up with big efforts. He put up a combined 2.79 ERA in those three games and two of those were on the road where he has struggled all season. At home, Hernandez has a 3.43 ERA in six starts compared to a 5.34 ERA in 10 road starts. He faced the Dodgers once this season and pitched a gem, allowing just one run in seven innings in Los Angeles. He squares off against Randy Wolf who has been a very pleasant surprise in the Dodgers rotation this season. He has a 3.49 ERA in 18 starts including a 2.91 ERA in nine road outings but the Dodgers are just 4-5 in those games compared to putting up a 7-2 record in his nine home starts. The Mets are hitting a solid .298 against left-handed pitching this season including .305 at home. Hernandez has thrived in these situations as his teams have gone 10-2 when he has been a home underdog of +125 or more over the last three years. The Dodgers are just 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in New York. After losing three straight series, New York desperately needs to pull out a win in this rubber game. 8* New York Mets
Handicapper: Matt Fargo
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Matchup: Atlanta at Colorado
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) HANSON, T vs. (R) COOK, A
Play: Under (9.0 -110)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 9, 2009 @ 11:02:29 AM EDT
A fantastic pitching matchup takes place at Coors Field, as Tommy Hanson and the Braves meet Aaron Cook and the Rockies. Hanson is 4-0 on the season, while shutting down potent offenses like the Yankees and Red Sox so far in his young career. The Braves have finished UNDER the total in Hanson's last five starts, while allowing only 3 ER in that span. Atlanta is 9-26-3 to the UNDER this season in night games against right-handed starters, including a 2-12-2 mark on the road. Cook is being upstaged by teammate Jason Marquis, who has won a NL-best 11 games. Cook still has an impressive eight wins in 11 decisions, while allowing 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts. Cook shut out the Braves last time he faced them in Atlanta, tossing a complete-game four-hitter. Both these teams are riding nice UNDER streaks, Braves in five straight, and Rockies in eight of their past ten. I'll ride those streaks tonight, and take the UNDER between Atlanta and Colorado.
Handicapper: Kevin Rogers
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Matchup: Florida at Arizona
Time: 9:40 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) MILLER, A vs. (R) PETIT, Y
Play: Over (9.5 -115)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 9, 2009 @ 11:02:29 AM EDT
Scott Rickenbach’s MLB Top Play: OVER the total in Arizona vs Florida @ 9:40 PM ET: Petit vs Miller – We do expect Hanley Ramirez to be back in the lineup tonight for the Marlins. However, even if he is not, there is still plenty of support for this play tonight and it shouldn’t matter who is standing in the box against a struggling Yusmerio Petit and a suspect Diamondbacks bullpen. With red hot temperatures again expected in Phoenix today, this game is very likely to be played with the roof closed. Game time temperatures are likely to be too hot to justify keeping the roof open. This game starts early evening Arizona time and the ball does tend to carry very well at Chase Field when the roof is closed.
The Diamondbacks and Marlins both have plenty of deep ball threats and are each ranked in the top seven for home runs among National League teams. Arizona is riding a wave of confidence at the plate right now as the Diamondbacks have won five straight games and averaged six runs per game. Florida is also “riding high†as they’ve enjoyed a solid 11-6 run. The Marlins have averaged about five runs per game in their last 16 games. With this total likely to get no higher than a 10.5 (it’s currently a 9.5) we know that a 5-5 game put us in the winner’s circle guaranteeing no worse than a 6-5 final. So, can we expect each lineup to get to five runs here? You bet!
The Diamondbacks will be facing Andrew Miller of the Marlins tonight. We backed Miller, and won, in his last start against the Pirates on Saturday. However, that was at home where he has pitched better this season and, even though he got the win, he showed some shakiness in that outing. Miller allowed eight hits (including two homers) in 6.2 innings of work. He had to work out of some tough jams. The southpaw had not been allowing many homers this season but he’s now allowed three in his last two starts and Arizona’s hit 49 homers at home (good enough for 4th in the National League). Also, the Diamondbacks 100 doubles at home are 2nd only to Boston out of all 30 MLB teams. The Dbacks .436 slugging percentage at home ranks 3rd in the National League. Arizona can certainly hit the ball well at home and we don’t expect them to have much trouble with Miller here. The Marlins southpaw is 0-4 on the road with a 6.33 ERA this season. Also, other than a fine home start against the Orioles last month, note that Miller has been hit quite hard over the last six weeks. Other than the start versus Baltimore, the left-hander has allowed 47 hits in his last 40.2 innings of work. Miller did have a strong start versus the Dbacks earlier this season but that was at home. Chase Field creates it’s own unique challenges and Miller has certainly not been a “road warrior†this season.
The good news for Miller tonight is that he should receive plenty of run support! Florida will be teeing off against Petit of Arizona. The Diamondbacks right-hander, a former Marlin, will certainly do everything he can to shut down his former club but Petit just isn’t back in form yet. Even in his rehabilitation starts he did not pitch well. He’s trying to come back from shoulder problems effecting his throwing arm and, after not pitching at the MLB level for nearly two months, his first start after coming back certainly was not encouraging. Petit allowed four earned runs in just three innings. Yes, the start was at Coors Field but the fact is that Petit has not pitched well anywhere this season. His overall numbers show an 0-3 mark with an 8.46 ERA. Also, homers have been a problem again this season and that’s been an issue for Petit throughout his career. He’s allowed about one homer every four innings in his MLB career. This season at Chase Field he’s given up six homers in less than twenty innings of work! Petit had a good start against his former team in his only career start against them. However, the Marlins are facing “damaged goods†tonight as Petit is not healthy right now. Also, the Diamondbacks 5.07 ERA at home is dead last in the majors! Also, both bullpens have ERA’s that rank them in the lower third of the majors. The Diamondbacks bullpen is in particularly bad shape here and is likely to be called into action early as Petit has averaged only about four innings per outing this season. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this one. Play OVER the total in Arizona as a Top Play selection.
Handicapper: Scott Rickenbach
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Matchup: San Diego at San Francisco
Time: 10:15 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) GEER, J vs. (R) LINCECUM, T
Play: Under (7.0 -105)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 9, 2009 @ 11:02:29 AM EDT
San Diego Josh Geer has allowed 3 or less runs in his last 4 starts. The Padres are 15-4-1 UNDER their last 20 games and they are 6-2 UNDER after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and they 4-0 UNDER their last 4 games with the Giants. San Francisco starter Tim Lincecum has allowed 1 run total in his last 3 starts covering 25 innings of work. San Francisco 25-12-4 UNDER their last 41 games vs. losing teams. The Giants are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 Thursday games and they are 15-6-3 UNDER vs. NL West teams. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Lincecum vs. Geer)
Tom Freese is 2-0 with his 10* MLB "NO BRAINER" Plays this year. "NO BRAINER" #3 goes tonight. It's backed by AWESOME numbers supporting the play. You can't afford to miss out!
Handicapper: Tom Freese
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posted by vegastaco
July 9 2009 12:18pm -
0 likes
I lost last one out..that's 9-1 ATS in the last 10.
Saturday big banger in MLS:
I advocate this game every year and the offenses lead to me believe this is no exception. Chivas has the best defense in MLS but throw that out the window inthe Superclassico. Roll with me on over 2 1/2 in the Battle of LA...Galaxy vs. Chivas usa.
4**** bet for me. This game always goes over.
posted by pc7588
July 9 2009 1:30pm -
0 likes
I got one for tonight I couldn't get in on time:
I'm taking under 9 +105 in the dodgers/Mets tilt. Randy Wolf is the king of the no decision and is having his best season by far. The Mets throw out innings eater Livan who can handle the majority of that Dodgers lineup. Mets offense is terrible, and I mean god awful. Don't let last night's explosion against Kuroda deceive you, the Mets can't hit period. If they put up a big number tonight, I might back off, but I don't see it. Livan and K Rod have to eat innings and get late into the game to have a shot. Wolf gets absolutely no run support. I'm on the under fellas.
3** on Under 9 even.
2nd play:
I'm on the over in Texas/Seattle. Yes, the Mariners bats are weak, but they have shown signs of life, especially Jose Lopez and Russel Branyon. Texas has Hamilton back, and they have been hitting ever since. Hunter is a garbage pitcher for the Rangers and Felix has had trouble in the past against Texas. Huge pitcher's park at Safeco, but I think we get a big run game from Seattle and Texas will get 4. I'm on the over.
2** on Texas/Seattle over 8
posted by pc7588
July 9 2009 6:32pm -
0 likes
MLB
Cubs +130
GL
posted by takis28
July 10 2009 7:24am -
0 likes
MLB 1st-Half Season Package
Premium Plays
Matchup: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Time: 7:35 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) MAZZARO, V vs. (R) NIEMANN, J
Play: Over (9.0 -120)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 10, 2009 @ 12:31:10 PM EDT
OVER the total in Tampa Bay vs Oakland @ 7:35 PM ET: Niemann vs Mazzaro – We felt certain we’d get some solid line value when we saw this pitching match-up coming up and, with an opening number of just nine, this one easily made our play list. Vin Mazzaro has a 3.59 ERA so far this season while Jeff Niemann has a 4.14 ERA so far this season. With combined ERA’s of just 7.73 we’re hoping this line will hold at a nine for us. Either way, neither starter has looked as good recently as they were previously purported to be. In his last five outings (four starts) Niemann had one strong start – against Toronto. However, in his other four outings, Niemann averaged less than four innings per game. He allowed 12 earned runs on 21 hits in 15.2 innings of work. In his last five outings Niemann has walked 11 while striking out just 7. He’s just not the same pitcher he had been looking like up until early June. The A’s also have an edge here in that this is their second look at Niemann. The Rays right-hander has been somewhat fortunate this season in that he’s only had to face the same team more than once just one time so far this season. That was Baltimore and, in his second start against them, Niemann was fortunate that he only allowed two earned runs as he did give up eight hits and walk three in just five innings of work. Even though the A’s scored just four runs on Wednesday, they did have 13 hits and they had scored at least five runs in three of their first six games this month. The A’s have been swinging the bats better than their full season numbers show and they should have no trouble with the offerings of Niemann here.
The trouble for the A’s tonight will be their pitching. Their bullpen has struggled this season, particularly on the road, and the overall pitching for Oakland has not been good away from pitcher-friendly McAfee Coliseum. Away from home this season, the A’s have a 4.81 team ERA. Oakland has lost each of Mazzaro’s last five starts. In his last three outings, Mazzaro has been reached for 12 earned runs on 22 hits and 7 walks in 17 innings of work. In his most recent start, at Cleveland, Mazzaro gave up 10 hits without recording a single strikeout. This is particularly concerning and this problem becomes even bigger in this outing because he’s facing a red-hot Rays team. Tampa Bay has won eight straight games at home and they’ve averaged six runs per game plus batted .301 during this hot streak. Look for another solid effort from there here! At home, the Rays are one of the top hitting teams in the league and, even though they scored just three runs in yesterday’s win Tampa Bay did collect ten hits. The Rays have scored 13 runs on 27 hits in their last two games. They stay hot at the plate here, Mazzaro’s struggles continue, and Niemann struggles again as he tries to shake the rust off from not starting since June 29th. Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay as a regular selection.
Pick Courtesy Of: Scott Rickenbach
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Matchup: Chicago-A at Minnesota
Time: 8:10 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (L) DANKS, J vs. (R) BLACKBURN, N
Play: Minnesota (ML -122)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 10, 2009 @ 12:28:59 PM EDT
Play On: Minnesota Twins
Note: The Twins and White Sox open a huge three game series in Minnesota tonight where Nick Blackburn matches serves against John Danks. The Pale Hose enter tonight's game with 14 losses in their last 20 games on Fridays while the Twins have come up winners in 16 of their last 21 games on Fridays. With Danks 0-2 with a 9.68 ERA in his last two starts in this park, look for Minnesota to improve to 10-1 as a host in this series here tonight.
Pick Courtesy Of: Marc Lawrence
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Matchup: New York-A at Los Angeles-A
Time: 10:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CHAMBERLAIN, J vs. (L) SAUNDERS, J
Play: Los Angeles-A (ML +115)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 10, 2009 @ 12:26:50 PM EDT
The Angels have lost two straight to Texas as a significant home favorite – We cashed with the Rangers both times. Here, however, the Angels are the side on which to be. Joe Saunders is a terrific losing streak stopper. The Angels are 16-2 with Saunders when they are on at least a two-game losing streak, winning each of their last eight in this situation. In fact, in franchise history, the Angels are 7-0 with Saunders in the first game of a series when they lost at least their last two games.
Saunders has been less than scintillating in his last couple of starts. In his last outing he served up two home run balls, struck out only two and walked three. Many may site these stats as reason to play against the Halos, but that would be ill-advised. The Angels are a perfect 9-0 with Joe Saunders when he allowed at least two home runs in his last start, as long as they are not a 150 dog. LA has won each of the last six by multiple runs. In Saunders’ four starts in this situation this season, LA has won 5-1, 3-0, 11-3 and 9-6. In addition, LA is a perfect 11-0 in franchise history with Saunders when he is off a start in which he had more walks than strike outs.
The Yankees are “hot,†as they have won three straight and 13 of their last 15. However, they can be soft in this spot. NY is 8-11 as a favorite in the first game of a series when they are off two wins in which they never trailed. Six of the eight wins were by a single run and the Yankees were favored by an average of minus 188 in these 19 games. Also, NY is 12-18 as a road favorite in the first game of a series vs a team that has lost at least their last two games.
In Chamberlain’s last start, he put the Yankees in a huge hole by allowing eight runs in three and two-thirds at home vs Toronto. However, the Yankees’ bats and bullpen bailed him out by holding the Blue Jays scoreless thereafter to win 10-8. NY is 0-5 their last five THIS season on the road when they game back from a deficit to win their starter’s last start by multiple runs.
Joe Saunders has been a home dog four times in his career. In these four starts he averaged seven and two-thirds innings, and allowed and average of 1.25 runs per game. Each start was spectacular. He out-dueled Cliff Lee, Fausto Carmona, Josh Beckett, and this season beat Zack Greikne and the Royals 1-0 to hand Greinke his first loss of the season, pitching a complete-game shut out.
The line value here is all with the Angels.
MTi’s FORECAST: LA ANGELS 6 NY Yankees 2
Pick Courtesy Of: Ed Meyer
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Matchup: Texas at Seattle
Time: 10:10 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) FELDMAN, S vs. (R) MORROW,B
Play: Texas (ML -116)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 10, 2009 @ 12:34:10 PM EDT
Texas Rangers over the Seattle Mariners
Texas has two representatives on the AL roster for the 2009 All Star game, and interestingly enough, both are offensive players, OF Josh Hamilton (who missed about half the season so far with injury) and 3B Michael Young. It's interesting because it's really been the Texas pitching that has been responsible for this team's surprise first-half run. Three righthanded starters Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, and tonight's mound man Scott Feldman have a combined record of 23-12 and an ERA well under four runs. Of the three, Feldman is by far the most pleasant surprise on this team. He continues to throw mostly quality starts despite not having particularly hard stuff and he seems to get the outs when he needs them. He's done most of this without the support of the aforementioned Hamilton, who just came off the DL and should give Feldman and the rest of the staff a much-needed offensive boost. Seattle southpaw reliever-turned-starter Garrett Olson has done something very strange so far in 2009. He's managed to pitch better on the road (much better as a matter of fact) than at home, despite having the advantage of one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. At Safeco Field, Olson has struggled to an 0-2 record and 5.31 ERA in seven appearances (three starts) while on the road, he is undefeated (3-0) with a 4.15 ERA. Strange indeed. And also troubling because tonight's start is at Safeco. Take the Rangers.
Pick Courtesy Of: Big Al McMordie
posted by vegastaco
July 10 2009 6:32pm -
0 likes
Started 9-0..0-4 since..Let's get back on track:
Got a solid, solid 4****on BP
Here's some good plays for ya:
Cubs RL -1 1/2 +145
Zambrano has been pitching well and getting some tough luck losses. I look at Kyle Lohse toeing the hill and realize he hasn't pitched in almost 2 months. Cubs got beat by the Cards ace Carpenter yesterday. I think the Cubs ace will throw a gem today and Pujols is really looking forward to Monday's home run derby in St. Louis. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the day off. Cubs are in a dogfight to get back in the NL Central upper echelon. Should be a good game but I think Cubbies pull away and win this one by 3+++
2** on Cubs RL -1 1/2 +145
Cincy/Mets under 8 to 8 1/2
Harang and Pelfrey toe the hill. I've said it for a while now, this is the worst Mets offense I've seen in a decade ++. No Delgado, No beltran, No Reyes, just traded Church for Frenchie, Wright in a small funk, this team can't get it done. Harang is an innings eater pitcher with high K ratio per inning. Pelfrey can pitch well at home and the weather looks like the ball won't be blowing out to right which is the ONLY reason I would take the over in this new pitcher's park. Gotta roll the under, take either number you get. Let's not forget the back end for the MEts with K Rod is rock solid.
2**on Cincy under Pelfrey/HARANG must go
Dodgers+132
I like Kershaw and the resurgent Mannyigized Dodgers to beat Yovanni today in Milwaukee. Kershaw is finally pitching like the ace and #1 I thought he should be on the Dodgers rotation. His numbers have been sick and he's been getting it done for the better part of a month. Gallardo is rock solid too, but I just think the Dodgers are the better team. I have to back them today with Kershaw on the hill. Pub is probably going to ride with me, but the value is very good on Kershaw and the Dodgers today.
2** on LA Dodgers as a dog
posted by pc7588
July 12 2009 11:59am -
0 likes
MLB 1st-Half Season Package
Premium Plays
Matchup: Cleveland at Detroit
Time: 1:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) OHKA, T vs. (R) VERLANDER, J
Play: Over (9.0 -115)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 12, 2009 @ 10:32:08 AM EDT
OVER the total in Detroit vs Cleveland @ 1:05 PM ET: Verlander vs Ohka – We lost with this play yesterday but we have no regrets about pulling the trigger on it. Yesterday’s match-up between the Tigers and Indians was the only game on the board (not including the extra inning game) where the teams tallied twenty hits and yet the game did not go over the total. Yes, yesterday’s tough loss for us left the door open to line value for us again today. This total already moved from an 8.5 to a 9 and is as high as a 9.5 in some books. However, there is still a ton of value here. Both teams should stick the ball well again as we have reason to believe that each hurler struggles here.
Tomo Ohka gets this start for the Indians. It’s a “spot start†for him because Jeremy Sowers got sent down to the minors. The bad news for Ohka and being a “spot starter†is that the right-hander has thrown just 1.2 innings since his last start which was on June 27th. In other words, Ohka certainly won’t be crisp here and let’s not forget that he was already struggling badly. He has a 5.65 ERA this season and has allowed 7 homers in just 28.2 innings of work this season. It will be a mild afternoon in Detroit and the wind is expected to be blowing out toward left field. The ball has already been carrying very well so far in this homestand for Detroit and we look for more of the same here! In three games, two starts, in his career against the Tigers, Ohka was absolutely crushed. With a short afternoon expected for Ohka, this also will expose a weak Indians bullpen that has, once again, been a problem all season long!
The Tigers have some pitching concerns of their own in this one. Yes, Justin Verlander gets the start for Detroit and he’s got phenomenal numbers at home this season. However, the Detroit right-hander has given up three homers in his last two starts at Comerica Park. Also, Verlander gave up five runs (three earned) on seven hits in six innings in his most recent start. That outing came against the Royals and he faces a tougher lineup here. Verlander is 6-10 with a 5.74 ERA against the Indians in his career. Also, eight of the ten homers he’s allowed this season have come against left-handed hitters and he will see plenty of “lefty lumber†in the Indians lineup today. Cleveland has hit 22 points higher on the road than they have at home this season. Also, the Indians last eight games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game and today’s total is just a nine in most books! Each of the first two games in this series have stayed under the total but it’s been TWO MONTHS since the Indians last played a series without at least one of the games going over the total. Don’t look for a repeat of that there. This one gets nuts early with the ball carrying well and the pitchers and pens serving up some juicy pitches in this one. Play OVER the total in Detroit as a regular selection.
Pick Courtesy Of: Scott Rickenbach
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Matchup: San Diego at San Francisco
Time: 4:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) CORREIA, K vs. (L) ZITO, B
Play: San Francisco (ML -131)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 12, 2009 @ 10:25:21 AM EDT
This Giants’ pitching staff is feeding off each other’s strong performances. After Sanchez’s no-no, Cain was excellent in a 2-1 victory over these Padres yesterday. Zito threw eight and a third scoreless innings in his last start and out-dueled Josh Johnson in a 3-0 win. The Padres have lost seven straight and Zito does not miss these opportunities to add another ‘W’ to his career total. Indeed, the Giants are 10-1 with Zito vs a team that has lost at least their last two and it is not the first game of a series.
The Padres beat Zito 2-1 the last time they faced him, with Zito going eight innings and allowing only two runs. The Padres are very obliging to a pitcher that is seeking revenge. In fact, San Diego is 0-8 THIS season on the road when they won the last time they faced their opponent’s starting pitcher.
The Padres are in a slump and they have shown no ability whatsoever to shake it in the role of road dog. San Diego is 0-11 since April 30, 2009 as a road dog when they are off a loss in which they never led. The Padres are also 0-6 as a road dog after a loss in which they were shut out in the first 6 innings.
The Giants have all the momentum here and the padres should not offer much resistance. San Francisco is 18-5 in the last game of a home series and 6-0 since THIS season at home after a win in which they used 5+ pitchers. This price seems cheap.
MTi’s FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 6 San Diego 3
Pick Courtesy Of: Ed Meyer
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Matchup: Florida at Arizona
Time: 4:10 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) JOHNSON, J vs. (L) DAVIS, D
Play: Florida (ML -116)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 12, 2009 @ 10:30:02 AM EDT
Florida is 14-3 when Josh Johnson pitches with 4 days of rest. Florida is 9-3 their last 12 games vs. losing teams. The Marlins are 11-5 their last their last 16 games vs. lefty starters and they are 9-2 their last 11 games as favorites. Arizona is 1-5 in the last 6 starts made by Doug Davis and they are 26-53 their last 79 games as underdogs. The Diamondbacks are 1-7 their last 8 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game and they are 1-4 in Game 4 of a series. 20* MLB FIRST HALF GAME OF THE YEAR PLAY ON FLORIDA - (Johnson vs. Davis)
Pick Courtesy Of: Tom Freese
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Matchup: St Louis at Chicago-N
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Sun)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) WAINWRIGHT, A vs. (R) WELLS, R
Play: St Louis (ML +103)
Line Source: SPORTSBOOK
Posted on: July 12, 2009 @ 10:34:45 AM EDT
The Cardinals have won five of Adam Wainwright’s last six starts and he has allowed just three earned runs over the last three outings, posting 26 strikeouts in that span without allowing a home run. The Cardinals are actually 7-1 in Wainwright’s road starts and he is backed up by a Cardinals bullpen that is featuring a 0.73 ERA over the last ten games. In that span the Cardinals are batting .284 against right-handed pitching and St. Louis is 7-3. The Cardinals have also won six of the last eight between these teams this season. The Cardinals are 3-0 this season against the Cubs with Wainwright on the mound and St. Louis should have the edge in the second game of the double-header as they feature a deeper bullpen and a starter that typically lasts longer into games. Carlos Zambrano has only won once at home all season and he features a 3.77 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP at home. Zambrano and the Cubs have been known to crack on the biggest of stages and this Sunday night national TV game could be problematic. Chicago is just 2-4 in Zambrano’s last six starts and he has allowed a lot of runs, walks, and hits in that span.
Pick Courtesy Of: Joe Nelson
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posted by vegastaco
July 12 2009 12:01pm -
0 likes
Went 2-1 today so far hittin +132 and +145 and losing -110 for a total of +3.3 units.
Overall since postin 11-5 ATS
Tonight:
I gotta roll the Cards. In 3 starts this year the Cards ace Adam Wainwright is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.47. I can't see the Cubs sweeping the Cards and Chicago already used Gregg the closer in the day game. Pujols made an uncharacteristic error and was ineffective at the plate against Big Z and the Cubs rotation. I really think we're going to see a Cards ass kickin tonight and I'm playing the dog.
2**on Cards +110
GL tonight
posted by pc7588
July 12 2009 6:10pm -
0 likes
CASH MONEY ON CARDS$$$$$
12-5 ATS in last 17..3-1 ATS today..see you guys for the All star game. I think I got the total nailed!
posted by pc7588
July 12 2009 11:01pm