Not sure if this will help anyone, but figured I'd share anyway. Games are
only as of 9/23 as I wasn't tracking prior to this and I don't know of
anywhere to get lines from previous weeks (if anyone does happen to know a place, please let me know). I have tracked all games with a line of 20+ (Favs are only 22-20), but have noticed that HOME DOGS getting 20+ points are 8-1-1. Below are the games, along with how much they covered by (5 of the 8 that covered did so by 10+ points):
9/23 - Houston (+29') v. Miami, 13-38, W by 4'
9/25 - Stanford (+22) v. USC, 28-31, W by 19
9/25 - Illinois (+21) v. Purdue, 30-38, W by 13
10/9 - Baylor (+20) v. Missouri, 10-30, P
10/16 - Buffalo (+20) v. Miami OH, 7-25, W by 2
10/16 - Kansas State (+20) v. Oklahoma, 21-31, W by 10
10/16 - Tulsa (+21) v. Boise State, 42-45, W by 18
10/23 - Mississippi St. (+24') v. Florida, 38-31, W by 31'
10/23 - Arizona (+21) v. California, 0-38, L by 17
10/23 - Duke (+24) v. Virginia, 37-16, W by 3
Also worth noting, of these 10 games, the HOME DOG only trailed by more than 10 points at the half in two of them (Miami, Cal....Mizz was up 10), meaning that they would have covered at the half in probably 9 of these (Miami was up 14 at the half). Three of the dogs were even leading at the intermission.
Right now, four games on the board with home teams getting 20+ this weekend. Kinda scary to take a UNC (v Miami) or Baylor (v. A&M) against anyone.