Home Dogs getting 20+
Not sure if this will help anyone, but figured I'd share anyway. Games are
only as of 9/23 as I wasn't tracking prior to this and I don't know of
anywhere to get lines from previous weeks (if anyone does happen to know a place, please let me know). I have tracked all games with a line of 20+ (Favs are only 22-20), but have noticed that HOME DOGS getting 20+ points are 8-1-1. Below are the games, along with how much they covered by (5 of the 8 that covered did so by 10+ points):
9/23 - Houston (+29') v. Miami, 13-38, W by 4'
9/25 - Stanford (+22) v. USC, 28-31, W by 19
9/25 - Illinois (+21) v. Purdue, 30-38, W by 13
10/9 - Baylor (+20) v. Missouri, 10-30, P
10/16 - Buffalo (+20) v. Miami OH, 7-25, W by 2
10/16 - Kansas State (+20) v. Oklahoma, 21-31, W by 10
10/16 - Tulsa (+21) v. Boise State, 42-45, W by 18
10/23 - Mississippi St. (+24') v. Florida, 38-31, W by 31'
10/23 - Arizona (+21) v. California, 0-38, L by 17
10/23 - Duke (+24) v. Virginia, 37-16, W by 3
Also worth noting, of these 10 games, the HOME DOG only trailed by more than 10 points at the half in two of them (Miami, Cal....Mizz was up 10), meaning that they would have covered at the half in probably 9 of these (Miami was up 14 at the half). Three of the dogs were even leading at the intermission.
Right now, four games on the board with home teams getting 20+ this weekend. Kinda scary to take a UNC (v Miami) or Baylor (v. A&M) against anyone.
posted by teeks75
4 replies
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0 likes
Sounds like some great info to consider. Combining your info with mine: I don't think the Baylor or Ball State games are good bets, but UNC has a slight possibility and Washington State will most likely do it.
Also, I think that donbest.com has a score board that you can check all the old date's games, lines, scores, etc.
posted by po_man
Oct. 28 2004 8:14pm -
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Looks like only one game meets that criteria this week...Kentucky +24 at home against Georgia. YUCK!
posted by playtoowin
Nov. 2 2004 4:59pm -
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Since I don’t feel like doing a thing at work today, figured I’d update the info on home dogs getting 20+. Thanks to Po Man for telling me where I could get previous lines. By my count, there have been 22 games with this situation, with the home dog going 14-7-1.
9/4 – SMU (+24’) v. Texas Tech, 13-27, W by 10’
9/11 – Central Fla. (+20’) v. WVU, 20-45, L by 4’
9/11 – Army (+23) v. Louisville, 21-52, L by 8
9/18 – BYU (+26’) v. USC, 10-42, L by 5’
9/18 – Idaho (+25) v. Washington St., 8-49, L by 16
9/18 – Arkansas St. (+25) v. Memphis, 35-47, W by 13
9/18 – Utah State (+20) v. Utah, 6-48, L by 22
9/18 – UTEP (+27’) v. Boise State, 31-47, W by 11’
9/23 - Houston (+29') v. Miami, 13-38, W by 4'
9/25 - Stanford (+22) v. USC, 28-31, W by 19
9/25 - Illinois (+21) v. Purdue, 30-38, W by 13
10/9 - Baylor (+20) v. Missouri, 10-30, P
10/16 - Buffalo (+20) v. Miami OH, 7-25, W by 2
10/16 - Kansas State (+20) v. Oklahoma, 21-31, W by 10
10/16 - Tulsa (+21) v. Boise State, 42-45, W by 18
10/23 - Mississippi St. (+24') v. Florida, 38-31, W by 31'
10/23 - Arizona (+21) v. California, 0-38, L by 17
10/23 - Duke (+24) v. Virginia, 16-37, W by 3
10/30 – UNC (+22) v. Miami, 31-28, W by 25
10/30 – Ball State (+20) v. Northern Illinois, 31-38, W by 13
10/30 – Washington St. (+25) v. USC, 12-42, L by 5
10/30 – Baylor (+25) v. Texas A&M, 35-34, W by 26
Last week, two of the four won outright, with Ball State falling in OT (prior week MSU won outright). A few notes:
• Of the 14 wins, ten teams have covered by 10 or more points
• Of the 22 total games, the home dog has led at the half five times and eight other times has trailed by 10 or less (plus Houston covered at the half v. Miami, so most likely 14 of the 22 games covered at the half)
• Conference games are 11-3-1, while non-conference games are 3-4
This week, as mentioned, looks like there’s one on the board, Kentucky (+24) v. Georgia.
posted by teeks75
Nov. 5 2004 11:58am -
0 likes
The more I look at this Kentucky game, the more i like it. Georgia coming off a big win vs FLA but still feeling like losers after getting little respect in the BCS poll AND facing the mighty AUBURN TIGERS next week.
Classic sandwich game, GA will play flat and win by 10-14 pts.
You talked me into it
posted by playtoowin
Nov. 5 2004 1:44pm