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UGLY DOGS 2008 18-15-1
UGLY DOGS were 3-4 last week
Loser #28 @NORTHWESTERN +3 vs Mich St
Winner #29 SOUTH CAROLINA +1 @ Kentucky
Winner #30 @MISSISSIPPI ST +3 vs Vanderbilt
Loser #31 @WISCONSIN +5 vs Penn St
Loser #32 LSU +6 @FLA
Winner #33 @SMU +25 vs Tulsa
Loser #34 @SO MISSISSIPPI +12½ vs Boise St
Oct 18 Dogs
UGLY DOG #35 316 @DUKE +5 vs Miami FL
UGLY DOG #36 317 VIRGINIA TECH +2½ @ Boston College (wrong team favored)
UGLY DOG #37 353 MISSOURI +7½ @ Texas
UGLY DOG #38 363 MICHIGAN +24 @ Penn St
UGLY DOG #39 369 ARKANSAS +9½ @ Kentucky
Good Luck Degenerates and be careful, the lines are sharp, shop around a little for the best lines and BUY the hook
posted by goat-
Oct. 15 2008 1:57pm -
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Hey Guys,
I don't post often. So here we go...
So Miss @ Rice -3 (69) @ 3pm est
Lets break this game down. The OFF & DEF numbers are yards followed by ranking out of 120 teams.
So Miss
pwr rating= 65
sch = 59
OFF pass = 238 (#39)
OFF rush = 185 (#32)
DEF pass = 217 (#76)
DEF rush = 181 (#97)
Pts for/against = 27 and 28
Rice
Pwr rating = 68
sch = 52
OFF pass = 309 (#8)
OFF rush = 120 (#94)
DEF pass = 260 (#103)
DEF rush = 206 (#107)
Pts for/against = 39 and 39
First of all, both defenses are very weak as indicated by the numbers and points allowed. I looked at last year's game and Rice won 31-29 at So Miss as a 20 point dog. I also looked at this years team vs last year. So Miss has scored 2 PPG more and allowed 9 PPG more (ouch). There offensive passing has improved by 77 YPG, doesn't bode well for Rice. On the defense, there pass is allowing 37 YPG more and their rush 43 YPG more. Its there pass defensive that I'm interested in.
Lets look at Rice. Rice has scored 12 PPG more than last year and allowed 6 PPG more on defense. And, most impressive is their offensive passing with Clement, up 95 YPG (HUGE). Their defense is near the bottom of the league, enough said.
When playing totals, I look at a few different things. So bare with me. First, lets look at the Yards Per Play (YPP) on Offense. In other words, this is the average yards each team gets per play. Next, look at the YPP on Defense. And, finally I look at the Passing Attempts (PA) per game. These are key metrics in determining how fast a team can score. Scoring fast and more 1st downs prolongs the game and allows for many points to be scored.
RICE >> OFF YPP = 5.7 (#45 rank) DEF YPP = 6.6 (#114 rank) PA = 41 per game (#7 rank)
So MISS >> OFF YPP = 5.5 (#56 rank) DEF YPP = 5.7 (#92 rank) PA = 37 (#19 rank)
**Both teams prefer passing and get yards in chunks. Remember, dropped passes and 1st downs stop the clock. (KEY)
Trends
Over is 9-4 in SOMISS last 13 conference games
Over is 9-1 in RICE last 10 games overall
Over is 28-3 in RICE last 31 games on turf
Over is 24-4 in RICE last 28 conference games
Over is 12-2 in RICE last 14 games in October
Over is 5-0 in RICE last 5 games following a bye week
Over is 20-1 in RICE last 21 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game
Over is 11-1 in RICE last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record
Over is 22-5 in RICE last 27 games following a ATS loss
~~Not one trend points to the under in this game
In summary, these two teams scored 60 points last year and there is NO reason after crunching the numbers that this game doesn't sail well over 80 points this year. Rice in its first two home games has averaged 67 PPG. I know it was against No Tex and SMU but this So Miss is vulnerable on defense this year and is very capable of scoring themselves . Rice will exploit that for sure. I see both teams scoring over 40 points each. Bring on the aerial display.
Bet this with confidence~~~ SO MISS/ RICE Over 69 (BIG play)
Rock
posted by rockman
Oct. 15 2008 4:35pm -
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330 to win 300
Mizzou +7
G Tech -2.5
Miss St +8
Virginia +5.5
220 to win 200
Duke +5
Mississippi +13.5
Northwestern -4
Houston -12
Arkansas +9.5
posted by sherlock37
Oct. 16 2008 1:42pm -
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Some picks that I will be playing Saturday...
Iowa (-3.5) vs Wisconsin
Wisconsin is going in the wrong direction, having lost their last 3 games. Heartbreaking loss at Michigan, loss to Ohio State and thumped at home against Penn State last week. Iowa will continue Wisconsin's losing ways.
Michigan St (+3.5) vs Ohio St
I actually believe that MSU can win this one outright, but I'll take the points
Michigan/Penn St Over 47.5
Penn State homecoming game and a tune up for next week's game at Ohio State...I see a high scoring affair and will count on Michigan putting up at least 15 points to cover the over
Indiana (+16.5) at Illinois
Illinois has only covered the spread twice this season (against Penn State and last week at Michigan). They tend to play down to the competition and I can't see them covering this number
Good Luck with all of your plays!
posted by the_rookie10
Oct. 16 2008 2:22pm -
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There seems to be many good opportunities this week. I found plenty to take a look at:
RUTGERS +1
MARYLAND +2.5
CLEMSON +2.5
DUKE +4
VIRGINIA TECH +3
VANDERBILT +15
SOUTHERN MISS +1.5
NAVY +3
MICHIGAN STATE +3.5
MISSOURI +4.5
UAB +3
WASHINGTON +16
COLORADO -3
BAYLOR +17
UNLV +4
posted by jdelt88
Oct. 17 2008 5:08am -
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Be careful on:
UGLY DOG #37 353 MISSOURI +7½ @ Texas
Line is at now at 4. Me smells a rat. I just took Texas -4 and will try for the middle but would not play Missouri at +4
GL and remember MONEY MANAGEMENT this time of year is crucial. It's easy to chase (ask me how I know) after a bad spell
posted by goat-
Oct. 17 2008 12:20pm -
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Hello everyone,
Long time no see...I have one play and one play only...
Miami U -3
Good luck and have a good one!!!
posted by axd717
Oct. 18 2008 12:35am -
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Let's roll out a few for today...............
* NAVY/PITT OVER 51-
* Okla St./ Baylor OVER 66-
* La. Tech -20-
leans on.....
Bowling Green -9-
Nevada -22
Akron -4-
GLTA,
BeeSmart
posted by beesmart
Oct. 18 2008 12:41am -
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Early action
Rutgers ML
GL fellas!
posted by starks104
Oct. 18 2008 11:07am