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Take a look at these strong trend plays (Tennessee lost in this situation against Florida a couple weeks ago):
KANSAS STATE +7.5
IOWA STATE +13
NEBRASKA +11
I've posted this trend several times in the past. Actually didn't follow it last year, but it showed great profits the previous five years or so (and probably years before that).
BET AGAINST ROAD FAVORITES OF 7.5 to 14 POINTS COMING OFF A BYE WEEK
It seems so simple, but if you really analyze this statement, you can truly understand why it wins year in and year out. It's not just a crazy or fluky trend. I'm not going into it here, but I figured I would throw it out there for everyone again.
posted by jdelt88
Oct. 1 2008 2:31am -
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UGLY DOGS 2008 12-9
3-2 Last Week On Road Dogs
UGLY DOG #22 IOWA +8 @ Mich St
UGLY DOG #23 SOUTH CAROLINA +3 @ Mississippi
UGLY DOG #24 @VANDERBILT +4 vs Auburn
UGLY DOG #25 STANFORD +7 @ Notre Dame
UGLY DOG #26 @NEBRASKA +10½ vs Missouri
UGLY DOG #27 @WISCONSIN +1½ vs Ohio St (game opened at 2½)
Good Luck Degenerates and be careful, the lines are sharpening as they do every season around this time
posted by goat-
Oct. 1 2008 8:15pm -
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Virginia +14
A big system play for me. Since 2004, teams in UVA’s spot have gone 23-3 ATS.
At first I was not very thrilled about taking UVA, who the guys on ESPN were saying may be the worst team in all of the BCS conferences (Wash St, Syracuse?). They have lost a ton: suspensions, transfers, injuries…anything you can think of. Ending Duke’s 25 game ACC losing streak is bad enough, losing 31-3 is embarrassing. A closer look though, this game was 3-3 at the half. In the 1Q, UVA outgained Duke 126 to 19, got inside the Duke 35 three times, but only got 3 points. Early in the 3Q, two of UVA’s top defenders (who already had 2 INTs and 2 sacks) had to get IVs. When they came back in the 4Q, it was 24-3 (Sintim got his 3rd sack when he returned). Also, UVA turned the ball over FIVE times in the 2H alone. In the final stats, UVA was +1 in 1st downs, +26 in rushing, and +20 in passing. UVA held Duke (who is improved from prior Duke teams) to 84 yards rushing on 37 attempts. UVA didn’t have their top RB but ran for 110 yards. This is a home game for the Cavs, national TV (sort of, ESPNU), night game, coming off an embarrassing loss…..they need to at least be competitive this game, Groh won’t last if they keep getting hammered like this, but it may even be too late for him. My only concern is do they have the talent to keep it close? I think if they run the ball/use the clock (and no one cramps up), they can. Not turning the ball over 6 times is also encouraged. Of course, they have scored a combined 20 points in 3 games vs 1A opponents, so that is a bit concerning. Time to break out the trick plays? Maryland is coming off a nice win at perennial under-achiever Clemson. So they’re feeling good, plus they see a team who just got stomped by Duke and all 1A opponents. I see the classic letdown here. In their two road games, MD hasn’t scored much (17 ppg), W 20-17 at Clemson, L 24-14 at MTSU, who didn’t really impress me Tuesday night. MD was also a similar 13 pt fav at MTSU. They beat Cal at home 35-27, but were outgained by 164 yards. MD does have revenge after losing in the final minute at home last year.
Looking at some numbers, MD is 2-6 ATS L8 vs a team with a losing record (Cavs def qualify here) and the Dog in this series is 7-3 ATS L10. Last few meetings were decided by 1, 2, 12, 16, 10. Based on numbers I see (not sure how accurate), it is showing 2/3 of bets on MD.
If it’s not a must-win for UVA (because there may not be any more W’s this year), at a minimum it’s a must-be-competitive. Not sure which way this line will move, I’ve put half of what I’m gonna play at +14. Will put rest on UVA later in the week.
The way UVA has played, this is the mother of all of goats’ Ugly Dogs…..and I see even he didn’t touch it. GL everyone.
posted by teeks75
Oct. 1 2008 10:28pm -
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Some other games to ponder:
VIRGINIA +14 (teeks, totally agree with you on this one)
VANDERBILT +4
ILLINOIS +3
KENT +3.5
WISCONSIN +2
NORTH TEXAS +6.5
posted by jdelt88
Oct. 2 2008 3:55pm -
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lets roll$
posted by ricky
Oct. 4 2008 12:35am -
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A couple to toss out for Sat..............
* * * Forida -25 * * *
* * Tulane -20 * *
* * * FRESNO ST. -21 * * *
* * Okla. St. -25 * * *
GLTA,
BeeSmart
posted by beesmart
Oct. 4 2008 3:17am -
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I think MILWAUKEE -118 (Bush vs. Moyer) is worth a look tonight in MLB Playoffs
posted by jdelt88
Oct. 4 2008 6:36am -
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330 to win 300
W Virginia -14
Navy +4.5
Penn St -13
220 to win 200
Akron -3.5
UTEP +7.5
Baylor +24.5
posted by sherlock37
Oct. 4 2008 6:41am -
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PHANTOM ARE U READY BRO LET'S DO IT BUDDY NOTHING TO LOSE RIGHT
GOY PART 2
YOU READY HAWAII LET'S BUST THE BOOKIES BALLS WITH THIS PLAY I'M OUT ALL DAY TODAY BACK TOMORROW BETS IN
Philadelphia +105 GOY PART 2
GL EVERYONE
posted by takis28
Oct. 4 2008 11:31am -
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Anyone thinking about UVA, please consider the scary facts......
Suddenly, Cavs' pain is physical
Glut of key injuries increases problems presented by Terps
Saturday, Oct 04, 2008 - 12:07 AM
By JEFF WHITE
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER
Even at full strength, the University of Virginia football team would face an enormous challenge tonight against ACC rival Maryland. And U.Va. isn't close to full strength.
Little has gone right for the Cavaliers (0-1, 1-3) this season, and the injury report released Thursday night brought more ominous news. Among those who will miss tonight's game for health reasons are senior Zak Stair, who started the first four games at left offensive guard; sophomore tailback Keith Payne, who ran hard against Duke last weekend and has been a special-teams standout all season; and sophomore Joe Torchia, Virginia's No. 2 tight end.
Payne isn't the only tailback who's banged up. Cedric Peerman and Raynard Horne are listed as questionable, as are wide receivers Maurice Covington and Kris Burd. Peerman and Covington, when healthy, are starters. With Stair out, true freshman Austin Pasztor is expected to make his first start, leaving Virginia with a startling lack of depth on the offensive line.
History suggests the Wahoos will play well under the lights they have won five straight night games at Scott Stadium but the 2008 statistics suggest they'll struggle tonight. Of the 119 teams in the NCAA's Football Bowl Subdivision, U.Va. ranks 119th in scoring offense, 113th in turnover margin and 98th in scoring defense.
In its past two games losses to Connecticut and Duke Virginia has been outscored 76-13. The only U.Va. touchdown in either game came in the fourth quarter against UConn reserves.
posted by teeks75
Oct. 4 2008 12:00pm -
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Fellas,
Baylor +24
Fl St + 1.5
I'm drunk...
Full steam ahead...
GLTA!
posted by starks104
Oct. 4 2008 12:17pm -
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2 games I like today..........
Miami / Fla St. under 42 (heavy rain & thunder predicted)
UCONN + 7.5 (Go Huskies)
Later!
posted by pisswilly
Oct. 4 2008 12:30pm -
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quote by takis: PHANTOM ARE U READY BRO LET'S DO IT BUDDY NOTHING TO LOSE RIGHT :mrgreen:
GOY PART 2 :shock:
YOU READY HAWAII LET'S BUST THE BOOKIES BALLS WITH THIS PLAY I'M OUT ALL DAY TODAY BACK TOMORROW BETS IN :hookem:
Philadelphia +105 GOY PART 2
===========================================================================
GOOOOOOOODLUCK TAKIS!
LETSSSSSSSSSS GET'M!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2008 1:27pm -
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Picks For Saturday:
Phillies - takis goy2
Virginia +14 (teeks....ur makin me nervous)
Colo St -2
NC -7
goodluckfellas!
posted by phantom
Oct. 4 2008 1:30pm