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Marc Lawrence Playbook 9/25

Mark Lawrence Playbook

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET

Boston Coll over WAKE FOREST by 8

The Eagles find themselves in their very best role here. When playing with revenge off a SU and ATS win, BC is a nearly perfect 11-0-1 ATS. Almost the exact opposite is true for the Deacons. Wake

is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 home games against avenging opponents, including a perfect 0-5 ATS when the enemy is off BB SU wins. BC remembers last year's season opening loss in Chestnut Hill where

they dumped as double-digit chalk despite outgaining the Demons by 134 yards. Paul Peterson the difference for the Eagles.

5 BEST BET

Louisville over N CAROLINA by 17

The Cardinals have ruled the ACC with ten ATS wins in their last 11 chances. More importantly, Louie is 29-4 SU the last 33 times he scored more than 30 on the road and 38-8 ATS in its last 46 road victories. Carolina has allowed 39 ppg in its last 22 games and, until last week, had held only punchless Duke

and impotent East Carolina to less than 31 over that 22 game span. It also doesn't hurt knowing UNC is 1-7 ATS in their last eight in Chapel Hill when playing off a win. Heels tarred again.

4 BEST BET

VIRGINIA over Syracuse by 31

Syracuse owns possibly the worst numbers on the card this week. The Orange are 3-41 ATS in their last 44 SU road losses and a pitiful 5-23 ATS in their last 28 shots as road underdogs

vs .600 or better hosts. Going into last week, Virginia had covered seven of its last eight non-ACC games and had a

money making 15-5 ATS log at home under current coach Al Groh.

3 BEST BET

TENNESSEE over La Tech by 14

For all the success that Tennessee has enjoyed over the years, you would think that they would have a better record than their 1-12 ATS mark against .600 or better teams. The Vols are also a paltry 1-8 ATS at home off BB home games and 5-9 ATS after playing Florida. Louisiana Tech has cashed the

money each of the four times they've been installed as dogs of 30 or more points and catch the Vols in an ideal scheduling spot, to be sure, with none other than Georgia waiting on deck. A natural Vols letdown appears in order and we're first in line at the handout window.

NFL

5 BEST BET

MINNESOTA over Chicago by 17

Chicago, off a stunning 'inside-out' stat win over the Packers in Green Bay - lost the stats by nearly 100 yards - has no one who can cover Randy Moss. Injuries to McQuarters and Azumah could render the Bears helpless against the Culpepper-Moss combination. Late season road loss in the Windy CIty cost the Vikes a playoff berth last season. It won't happen here today as the Vikings are 7-1 ATS with division revenge and 5-1 ATS after playing Philadelphia. This could get real ugly.

4 BEST BET

Tampa Bay over OAKLAND by 7

Tampa is 6-1 ATS on the NFC West road and 4-1 ATS in its last five September road games. Oakland is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight as favorites or dogs of +3 or less. Of course, the story line here is Jon Gruden against Al Davis, the man who cost Gruden his dream job at Notre Dame. We've seen the look on

his face when he talks about Oakland and Davis. ChuckyÂÂ

ricky

posted by ricky

Sept. 22 2004 11:43pm

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