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How to play the NCAA CONFERENCE TOURNEYS

I've used a real successful formula for capping the conference tourneys over the years, here are the most important keys:

1.) If a team has nothing to play for (They are already in the dance and can't improve upon their seed.) then roll on the dogs. Under this scenario I would fade Oklahoma, Duke, Wash St., etc...the teams that won't get the seed they want but are in the tourney.

2.) Play on teams that finished strong. I have been absolutely cashing on San Diego this year. They have had one of the best 2nd half of the seasons (both ATS and SU) of any team in the country.

3.) Expect the unexpected. I can't preach this enough..if the line looks funny as shit...(Example..UNC -4 over V. Tech in the ACC tourney..hypothectical) roll on the funny side of the line. There are reasons we will see goofy lines in the conf. tourneys. Oddsmakers know which way the pub will roll..trust me their spreadsheet at the LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) is a little better than the ones we keep at home. Many times in the past I have been burned until I got wise. The oddsmakers know who is going to show up. A good example was Middle Tenn State on mar. 10'th...Everyone and their mother was on 26-6 S. Alabama but no one gave MTSU much notice..then when I saw the line drop a full 2 points over the course of the day while the pub was hammering S. Alabama..I scratched my head. When in doubt, throw 2 units on the funny side and you will come out ahead.

4.) Know your teams. If your capping a conference you don't know dick about, pickride or take the dog. For instance, I want to play on the Ohio valley tournament, but I know nothing about the teams. After resarching the teams and lines, I still don't feel good. I'm staying away but I'll watch to see if my hypotheticals turn in. STAY AWAY FROM WHAT YOU DON'T KNOW..no one can cap 142 college teams and call themselves an expert. If they do, they are the guy you pray sits at your card table because you will bust this fish up.

5.) Be unpopular. If everyone is on one way, don't be afraid to go the other if that's what you like. A client recently asked me if I just straight faded the public sometimes and I told him no. But if I do my research and find a play I like, and then see everyone and their mother including rookies who don't know dick about capping calling it a lock, then I not only play the unpopular play, but hammer it. A great example and my favorite of this is the Texans inaugural game against the Cowboys. My boy the Ultimate Capper was one of my "locals" at the time and I bet on the Texans at +9. He laughs and says I"m the only winner on the book. He got nervous and jacked the line to -10 cowboys. Still got all kinds of play on the Boys at home and jacked it to 11. Well, for those that remember, the Texans won ML and Ultimate Capper bought a new BMW that week because all the schemps thought the Cowboys would hammer the expansion Titans. My point...stand alone on the island, be unpopular, be a man...take the play you want irregardless of what everyone else is doing.

That's all I got. If you apply those principles to the conference tourneys, you can't lose. Check out http://www.ballinpicks.com [ballinpicks.com]">www.ballinpicks.com and you'll see what I'm talking about. We are banging and we are absolutely killing it for our clients. Doesn't matter if your a client or not, if you have any questions or want an opinion on an upcoming game don't hesitate to email me or PM me. I'm always GP first, just disappointed personally in what the site has turned into capping wise. We'll get it back at GP, but it's going to take a new wave of cappers proving themselves.

GL all..enjoy the conference tourneys. If you want to give ballinpicks a shot, I recommend a 1 day buy on Saturdays. I personally have been over 80% ATS in the last 4 Saturdays and BPC has shown such a huge profit over the Weekends that I'll just shut up about it. Check out our past records ATS and on money makin Saturdays and you will see what I'm talking about.

pc7588

posted by pc7588

March 11 2008 9:08am

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