ufc 74
plays so far for ufc 74
top play
babalu -210 over heath 2 units. ive watched all of heaths fights in the ufc recently and i am extremely unimpressed. his stand up seems sloppy, and it doesnt seem like he has much of a ground game either. as for sobral, he has fought world class fighters for a long time. only question is, does he still have the drive. he is coming off of two straight ko losses. however, lambert is no slouch and his fight resume blows heaths out of the water. yet, i believe babalu was -450 for that fight in march. i dont beleive he has declined that much. heath is no spring chicken, they are similiar in age. as long as babalu prepares properly for the fight, i see late first-early second gnp or sub, with sobral taking heath down and controlling the action.
grove -265 over cote 1.5 untis. this line is a little on the steep side, was hoping to get -175 to -225, as grove was only -160 his last fight. can get better at other books, but i am only using bodog for mma right now. basically, i believe grove is not going to lose until he faces a top contender at middlewieght. he is so long, lanky. this makes him very dangerous standing as well as off his back. cote is an experienced fight and a threat, i would bump this down to 1 unit if you cant get the line <225.
kosheck over gsp +200 1 unit. i really think there is great value in kos, however line is dropping, opened at +205. bodog now has +180. i see two extremely talented athletic fighters, coming out of good camps, that should be prepared. however. i believe kos is stronger mentally. he seems to enjoy adversity. whereas, gsp is currenlty seeing a sports psycologist. if i hit the early fights, i will prooly juice this up to 1.5 unit.
would love insight from other fight fans on guida-aurellio and couture-gonzaga. sucks guida fight not on main card. he has had some tough dec losses, thinking that will be in the judges head and give him a break.
also early look on puture ufc's bisbing is only -225 over hamil for ufc 75. this line should go up, i believe should be around -325. also, fitch/sanchez at ufc 76 -115. pc got me on the fitch bandwagon. really hope to see him win. what do you guys think about that fight. should be great.
posted by terpkeg
10 replies
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I'll post Saturday AM...
we disagree on one...agree on another, and I'm not playing the 3rd. I'll have my winners up and ready to roll on Saturday AM.
have a great weekend. I'm getting sick of watching the same WEC fights on VS...more I look at them, the more I am convinced not one of those guys can cut it in UFC or Pride...Maybe McCullough..but their welterweight champ Carlos Conduit would get worked in the UFC or Pride.
posted by pc7588
Aug. 23 2007 8:45am -
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im gonna add frank mir since the line has dropped to -155 for 1 unit. i know he has looked like shit since coming back, but hardonick showed no ground game in his last fight, which was against a late replacement for mir, justin mcully i think, who didnt look all that impressive either. one hardonick hit his back he floundered around like a fish out of water. hopefully mir comes in better shape than he has been and can get a sub or boring decision that wont make the televised card.
sobral 2u
grove 1.5u
mir 1u
kos 1u
really intrigued by couture/gg but cant seem to make play, can really see fight going either way, with a lean on gg i think the line is right on.
posted by terpkeg
Aug. 25 2007 10:01am -
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I'll post it when I get off of work but I can tell you this terpkeg...
I am backing the Natural Randy Couture tonight. He is such a sharp fighter that I think he will win an endurance war. Awful tough to knock out Couture (his weakness is stand up) but if it goes to the ground it's going to be Randy's night. Conditioning wise I can't see Gonzaga going 5 but I can see Randy doing it. (He's done it 7 times in his career.)
I'll post the rest later when I get off of work. But I'm definetely posting on Couture as one of my plays.
Have a good one...full card coming at ya later.
posted by pc7588
Aug. 25 2007 11:16am -
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you are right the endurance factor is a huge atvantage for couture. i saw an interview w/ forest griffin and he said that wrestling 5 rounds w/ randy is the most greuling training he has ever done. said he has the best condition of anybody he has ever seen. ive actually only seen two of gg fights and the first one was against kevin jordan i believe. he gassed late in the first and was completley shot, both fighters were actually. they were getting booed out of the arena until gg awoke from his slumber to land a vicious superman punch and end the fight w/ one min to go.
so if he hasnt got his cardio together and the fight gets into the championship rounds it should be randy's fight to win.
best of luck with your card.
posted by terpkeg
Aug. 25 2007 2:33pm -
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Here's my complete card;
BEST BET MAIN EVENT: Roll with me on the Natural AKA Captain America..AKA America's Hero
Randy Couture.
2.5 units to win 3.1 units
I just can't see Captain America following to a BJJ or wrestling stud. Cro Cop is a striker, Couture is not. I'll take the wrestler who is very intelligent and can plan to fight anyone. Couture is evolving at the age of 43. Notice the intelligence he used in beating Sylvia. I see more of the same against Gonzaga. He will get it to the ground and grind for a decision.
Roll with me on Kurt Batman Pelligrino to upset Joe Daddy Stevensen. Kurt is the real deal and while Joe is a vet of the OCtagon, I think he's gonna slip tonight. Batman is electric and even though Stevenson is rounding into one of the best fighters at 55..I still think Batman pulls the upset tonight.
ROLL WITH ME ON KURT PELLIGRINO
1 unit to win 2.65 units
Roll with me on the Carpenter Clay Guida. Terp hit it on the head. I thought he got robbed in his last fight (of course I was financially backing him so I might be biased) But if you've seen him fight, he pushes the pace like no other and is an absolute stud on the ground.
2.5 units to win 2 units on Clay Guida.
Roll with me on GSP to beat a young challenge, but a tough one. I don't think GSP is going to lose this fight. I'm one of the 4 huge KOZ fans on the planet but GSP is world class athlete with more game in the stand up. KOZ is a better wrestler and this is actually a fight I hope I lose because I want Josh to keep climbing the ladder. But this rung is gonna knock him down bigtime.
ROLL WITH ME ON GSP AKA George St. Pierre.
1.5 units for me
Complete card Re Cap:
BEST BET: Randy Couture 2.5 units to win 3.1 (+127)
Kurt Pelligrino 1 unit to win 2.65 (+265)
Clay Guida 2.5 units to win 2. (-125)
George St. Pierre Risking 3.3 units to win 1.5 units (-220)
Good luck boys..
Terp..I agree with Mir, he doesn't win this one and we'll be hearing the cerebral assasin all year on Vs. for WEC. I'm actually a big Frank Mir fan and he is young enough to get back to the upper echelon. But he has looked so terrible..hope you hit that one and I agree.
Might take a look at Jensen pulling the upset tonight. He surprises me every time I watch him fight.
Good luck tonight. Ultimate Capper is at the event tonight in Vegas. I just gave him the winners.
Have a great weekend.
posted by pc7588
Aug. 25 2007 4:15pm -
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I can't wait for this card. I think we're gonna see some classic fights and at least 2 upsets of 200+ or more come in. Terp I don't know about GSP, he looks worried from what I'm seeing. You might be right on but I'll still back the vet.
Tell ya what, I wouldn't be surprised if Huerta gets caught tonight by Alberto Crane. He's undefeated and has very heavy hands. Anyways, enjoy the show.
posted by pc7588
Aug. 25 2007 6:39pm -
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i'm on
cote +200
clay -130
and zaga in the main event
posted by newman12
Aug. 25 2007 6:45pm -
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Great card again. Enjoyed the Main event and man is Randy the Man or what.
Complete card Re Cap:
BEST BET: Randy Couture 2.5 units to win 3.1 (+127) WIN
Kurt Pelligrino 1 unit to win 2.65 (+265) LOSS
Clay Guida 2.5 units to win 2. (-125) WIN
George St. Pierre Risking 3.3 units to win 1.5 units (-220) WIN
3-1 +5.6 Units
Nice call on Cote Newman I almost booked that but stayed away. Alberto Crane almost had Huerta, I will back him next time out.
Nice work Couture$$$$
posted by pc7588
Aug. 26 2007 12:35am -
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gotta give my props to pc for a nice card, although grove really destroyed my card, i made a little profit on the night tailing.
wasnt suprised gsp won the fight but was really suprised me how bad gsp out wrestled koscheck. i guess i was wrong about his mental state. he looked so big too.
also, too bad they didnt show babalu's fight. i think all the blood in the ring can from heaths face, but then he blows half his purse holding a choke for 7 secs after the tap to "teach him a lesson" fined 25k. im gonna check it out on ufc on demand.
pc, you been capping any other organizations events? i know bodog usually carries a wide arrange of fights and there some decent cards coming up the next month.
posted by terpkeg
Aug. 26 2007 7:09pm -
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...I play whatever I know. I'll be laying on Kimb Slice in his upcoming battle and I sometime play the KOTC or Ring of Fire cards. Good to see Joe Horn is getting back in the cage and Monson has a hell of a fight coming up with Pedro Rizzo. But yeah, I'm really not high on WEC. Their champs would get destroyed by the big boys and I'm not a fan of bantamweight fighting. I can go to the local crack hood in my town and get better action and knockouts by than what I see in WEC.
My big wish is we have a 1 day tourney in different weight classes like the early UFC's or the open weight grand prix's that Pride used to do.
Would love to see if a guy can go 3 fights in a day.
posted by pc7588
Aug. 27 2007 10:04am