All right, yata, yata, yata..if you read this forum you know I do well in this event. The standard disclaimer: YOU BET EXACTLY HOW I DO, you should be in the positive at the end of the night.
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Fight 1:
ROLL WITH ME ON MY BOY JON FITCH
This cat is lurking and waiting for the dust to settle in his class. He is top notch on the ground and has great mechanics. I'm tellin ya, Jon Fitch will be holding a belt for the UFC at some point.
1 units on Jon Fitch to win.
PREDICTION: 2nd round submission from a rear naked choke.
Risking 355.00 to win 100.00
Fight 2:
Matt Hammill this. He is going to lose this fight. His conditioning is a joke and he's a feel good story. The camp wasn't that intense with Tito's loss to Chuck..his training is suspect. My point...welcome to a quality opponent Matt Hammill...I would be very surprised if Hammill dominates this fight. He might win, but I'll take the great value on this.
ROLL WITH ME REX HOLMMAN +220
Risking 150.00 to win 330.00
Fight 3:
Sure I'll bite, I'll take Jason Dent for 1 unit @ +190. He doesn't have a UFC pedigree, but I know of him from before that. His only UFC fight was 3 round decision to phenom Roger Huerta..who I think is a huge up and comer in his division. Dent is fighting at his natural weight class where as Tibau dropped to this weight and barely made weight. I'll take the exceptionally conditioned fighter over the guy who had to cut weight and then eat again. IF Dent can get to the 3rd, I like him to win by submission.
ROLL WITH ME ON JASON DENT +190
Risking 100.00 to win 190.00
Fight #4:
I will go against Ace tonight and roll on Jason MacDonald +370. Read my last posts, call me and let me rant, Ultimate Capper has heard my theory on this for months. We are both in agreement that this is huge value. This is a great fight for MacDonald who is rapidly climbing the ladder as well. Remember how easy we cashed on MacDonald at +180 against Leban? This guy has done well for us (2-0 ATS on posted) and I love the spot he's in. If he can beat Leban in the Crippler's hometown of Sin City, he can beat Ace in Ohio. especially since Franklin hasn't fought since his nose got waxed as we cashed on The Spider. Anyways, MacDonald is fresh and his camp is excellent. Keith Jardine is in the same camp that produced the shocking first round knockout of Forrest Griffin. I'm tellin ya, MacDonald will stalll and get out of the 1st to quiet the crowd and frustrate Franklin. Then he's gonna win the next 2 rounds on the ground. Ultimate Capper brought up a good point to me...who in the hell has Franklin fought? He kicked the shit out of Loasiou..who is 0-2 since, but has dominated nobodys and 2nd tier fighters. You see Franklin escape with a decision or get lucky, but I really think MacDonald is gonna win this fight by decision.
ROLL WITH ME ON J MacDONALD +370
Risking 100.00 to win 370.00
Main Event and Best Bet:
Messy, let's just keep disagreeing on the Main Events. I'll take captain America. I know you love your boy from the Northeast, but Couture wouldn't fight if he didn't think he could win. His last loss was to Chuck Lidell, and I don't think Sylvia is in that class. The Maine Iac is bigger, taller, and has better reach, but if Couture avoids the haymakers, he can very easily submit those long assed limbs. Every loss Sylvia has seems to be a submission and you've got an Olympic class wrestler who used to fight in the all weight class divisions in different organizations. Captain America wins another belt (maybe even scripted Messy, remember my theory) and pulls the upset tonight.
ROLL WITH ME ON CAPTAIN AMERICA RANDY COUTURE
Risking 200.00 to win 460.00
Good luck and enjoy the card.
Opinions:
Sobral takes care of business in the first round.
Kampmann wins by a bloody knock out.
Hughes destroys Lytle with ground and pound
A decent card tonight, looking for the upsets to make it a good night. I just need 2 and Fitch to hit.
