NY METS (7 - 12) at LOS ANGELES (12 - 6): Play On The Los Angeles Dodgers -122
/6star
(Dodger-Mets write up)
Hi
Zambrano was just terrible today. I am going to come back with Nomo Tuesday as you have already seen. The Mets have only scored over 3 runs once in the last 6 games. While Glavine has been the better overall pitcher this year (even though his record does not indicate it at 2-0 Road and 2-1 Overall with an ERA of 1.00) I just don't see him getting any run support. If Nomo gets in trouble the Dodger bullpen has been very good this year with a home ERA of 1.26. Dodgers average 4.4 run per game at home with an OBP of .357 while hitting .268. The Mets are 5-10 vs RHP and have only averaged 2.7 runs and a .211 batting average in those games. Their Overall road numbers are not much better either. I think Glavine will have to be almost perfect to win this game. If the Dodgers get to him early the Mets bullpen is also bad with an ERA of 6.00 on the road and 5.04 Overall.
Here are the key trends I am looking at as they relate to pitching and offense
NY METS are 0-6 (-7.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better this season.
The average score was NY METS 1.7, OPPONENT 4.5
NY METS are 1-6 (-5.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was NY METS 1.3, OPPONENT 3.7
GLAVINE is 0-6 (-6.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .275 or better over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GLAVINE 3.7, OPPONENT 6.5 -
LOS ANGELES is 5-1 (+5.2 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.
The average score was LOS ANGELES 6.0, OPPONENT 4.8 -
NY METS are 13-33 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 3.3, OPPONENT 4.7
NY METS are 18-39 (-23.2 Units) against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NY METS 3.4, OPPONENT 4.8
A couple systems as they relate to Tuesday's game
Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (NY METS) - poor NL offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start.
(42-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.8%,)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -150
The average score in these games was: Team 5.6, Opponent 3.8 (Average run differential = +1.
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (40-7, +29.1 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (86-32, +35 units).
Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (NY METS) - poor NL offensive team (<=4.1 runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA<=3.33), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games.
(30-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (90.9%)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -138.3
The average score in these games was: Team 7.5, Opponent 4.2 (Average run differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-2, +19.2 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (40-10, +25.4 units).
I would back Nomo up to about -135 in this one. I am looking for a good 6 inning outing from him and then the bullpen taking over.
