College Best Bet Sides

2 Star Selection

KANSAS (+3.0) 23 Iowa St. 17

26-Nov-05 09:30 AM Pacific Time

Iowa State has been on a good run lately, winning 4

straight games and covering in 5 straight contests,

but the Cyclones are up against a highly motivated and

defensively stout Kansas team that needs to win this

game to become bowl eligible. Teams that are at .500

entering their final regular season game are a very

profitable 47-21 ATS at home since 1980 and the

Jayhawks apply to a very good 15-1 ATS subset of that

angle. Kansas was overwhelmed by a very good Texas

attack last week, but the Jayhawks' defense has still

only allowed 4.5 yards per play in their 7 conference

games this season - to teams that would combine to

average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team -

so they should return to their normal dominating level

of play here at home (they've allowed just 2.9 yppl in

two Big 12 home games). Iowa State's offense has been

better since top back Stevie Hicks returned to the

lineup a few weeks ago, but the Cyclones are still a

below average running team in the 5 games with a

healthy Hicks (3.9 yards per rushing play against

teams that would allow 4.2 yprp to an average team)

and I rate the Cyclones' attack at 0.1 yppl worse than

average with Hicks in the lineup (instead of the 0.4

yppl worse than average that they are for the whole

season). The Kansas offense is 0.8 yppl worse than

average for the season (4.4 yppl against teams that

would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but they are

better since senior Jason Swanson took over at

quarterback 3 ½ games ago. Swanson's numbers aren't

great (5.1 yards per pass play), but he has faced

teams that would allow 5.2 yppp to an average

quarterback and his -0.1 yppp rating is much better

than the Jayhawks' season long passing numbers (4.4

yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an

average team). Kansas rates at only 0.1 yppp with

Swanson at quarterback and he has cut down on his

interceptions the last two games (just 2 total) after

throwing 5 picks in his first 2 games. Iowa State has

a very good run defense (3.8 yprp allowed to teams

that would average 4.9 yprp against an average

defense), but their pass defense is only 0.1 yppp

better than average and the Cyclones' defensive rating

of 0.4 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to

teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against

an average defense) is not nearly as good as the

Kansas defense. The Cyclones do have outstanding

special teams that are 3.1 points better than the

Jayhawks' solid special teams units, and Iowa State

has a 4.1 points advantage in projected turnovers, but

my math model favors Iowa State by just 1 point in

this game and the Jayhawks have played their best

football at home, where they are now 9-2 ATS recently.

I'll take Kansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or

more and I'll Downgrade Kansas to a Strong Opinion if

they become an underdog of less than 3 points.

3 Star Selection

Georgia (-3.5) 31 GEORGIA TECH 17

26-Nov-05 05:00 PM Pacific Time

Georgia Tech's upset win at Miami last week is

supplying us with line value in going against the

Yellow Jackets, who are also due for a letdown. Teams

that win straight up as a double-digit road underdog

are only 47-82-3 ATS at home the next week against an

equal or better opponent (i.e. when favored by 3

points or less or getting points), and Georgia Tech

applies to a 13-39-1 ATS subset of that angle. Defense

is Georgia Tech's calling card and the Yellow Jackets

have allowed just 4.9 yards per play in the 6 games

that star DE Eric Henderson has played in this season,

despite facing teams that would combine to average 5.9

yppl against an average defensive unit. However,

Georgia's offense is actually slightly better than

Georgia Tech's defense, as the Bulldogs rate at 1.2

yppl better than average (6.7 yppl against teams that

would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) with D.J.

Shockley at quarterback (he missed their 10-14 loss to

Florida). Georgia Tech's offense continues to

struggle, as that unit has averaged only 4.9 yppl in 9

games with starting quarterback Reggie Ball at the

helm (he missed the Connecticut game) - against teams

that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team.

Georgia's is only 0.5 yppl better than average (4.8

yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl

against an average defensive team), but that unit has

a 0.6 yppl advantage over Georgia Tech's defense and

the Yellow Jackets' top running back, P.J. Daniels,

may be out again this week. The big difference in

these two teams is special teams, where Georgia ranks

among the best in the nation at +6.3 points per game

better than an average Division 1A team while Tech is

3.6 points per game worse than average in special

teams, which is horrid for a team from a BCS

conference. My special teams ratings have proven to be

one of the most important factors in my math model

(because other's don't give them enough weight) and

the math favors Georgia by 9 ½ points in this game.

So, we have some line value to go along with the

situation going against Georgia Tech and I'll take

Georgia in a 3-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less and

I'll Downgrade Georgia to a 2-Star Best Bet if they

are favored between 4 ½ and 6 points (a Strong Opinion

at more than -6 points).

3 Star Selection

STANFORD (+18.0) 24 Notre Dame 30

26-Nov-05 05:00 PM Pacific Time

As bad as Stanford's offense looked last week against

a fired up Cal defense, they are actually not that bad

of a team and the Cardinal should be able to score

enough points against a mediocre Notre Dame defense to

stay within the inflated number. Stanford had covered

the spread in 6 straight games prior to losing 3-27 to

Cal last week and the Cardinal are still an underrated

team, even if starting quarterback Trent Edwards (with

various injuries) cannot play. Stanford's offense has

been 0.2 yards per play worse than average for the

season, including their loss to UC Davis, as they have

averaged just 4.8 yppl against a schedule of teams

that would combine to allow 5.0 yppl to an average

team. The Cardinal attack is obviously better with

Trent Edwards in the game, as Edwards has averaged 5.9

yards per pass play (against teams that would allow

5.5 yppp to an average quarterback) while backup T.C.

Ostrander has averaged just 4.3 yppp (against teams

that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback).

With Edwards playing the entire game, the Cardinal

offense is average on a national scale and the

Cardinal attack would be 0.8 yppl worse than average

if Ostrander is forced to start and plays at the level

he's shown in his 61 pass plays so far this season. To

be on the safe side, I am going to assume that

Ostrander is at quarterback in this game. Notre Dame's

defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average, allowing

5.6 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against

an average defense and my math model projects 314

total yards at 4.6 yppl for Stanford in this game with

Ostrander at quarterback. Notre Dame's potent attack

(6.1 yppl against teams that would combine to allow

5.1 yppl to an average team) will obviously perform

better than that against a Stanford defense that is

only 0.1 yppl better than average (5.7 yppl allowed to

teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average

team). My math model projects 448 yards at 6.2 yppl

for Notre Dame in this game, but Stanford has very

good special teams that are 4.1 points better than

Notre Dame's special teams and very good special teams

is partly why the Cardinal has been deceivingly good

in covering 6 of their last 7 games. The Irish do have

a 1.9 points edge in projected turnovers, but the

overall math favors Notre Dame by just 11 points with

Ostrander at quarterback for Stanford. The math would

favor the Irish by only 4 ½ points if Edwards plays

the entire game at his normal level. Either way, there

is line value on the side of a Cardinal team that is

playing for the right to go to a Bowl game. Teams that

are at .500 on the season are 47-21 ATS at home in

their final game of the season and that record is an

even better 15-1 ATS if they are coming off a bad game

(a loss and spread loss). Also, final game home

underdogs of more than 7 points are good bets after a

straight up and ATS loss if facing team that does not

have revenge against them, and the Cardinal apply to a

33-10-2 ATS situation that is based on that premise.

When both of those situations apply the record is 3-0

with 2 straight up wins for dogs of +14 points and +9

points. My math model has been correct every time it

has picked on Stanford (with a 6 point differential or

more) and the math correctly picked against the Irish

last week as big favorite against a horrible Syracuse

team. Stanford is even more underrated after last

week's debacle and the Irish are overrated since the

public is blinded by the good offense and tend to

forget that their defense is suspect. This game

reminds me a lot of my Best Bet win on Stanford +7

over UCLA (also with a mediocre defense, in which the

Cardinal built a 21 point 4th quarter lead before

losing in overtime. The Cardinal also beat Arizona

State 45-35 as a 10 point home dog and their offense

has consistently performed well against mediocre

defensive teams this season. It was reported early on

Thursday morning that Trent Edwards will be the

starting quarterback for Standord, which makes me feel

better about this play. I would have taken Stanford as

a Best Bet even if Ostrander was the starter, but I'll

take Stanford in a 3-Star Best Bet at +17 points or

more with Edwards at quarterback.

I'll Downgrade Stanford to a 2-Star Best Bet if they

become an underdog of less than 17 points (a Strong

Opinion at less than +14 points).

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College Strong Opinions

WEST VIRGINIA (-14.5) 31 Pittsburgh 10

24-Nov-05 05:00 PM Pacific Time

West Virginia is still an underrated team despite

winning and covering the spread in 4 consecutive

games. My math model has been riding the Mountaineers

and the math favors them again this week, as does a

pretty solid 87-40-2 ATS late season home favorite

angle. Pittsburgh has a good defense (4.8 yards per

play allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl

against an average team), but West Virginia has a much

better stop unit that rates at 1.6 yppl better than

average (4.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine

to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive

team). The Mountaineers are also significantly better

on the offensive side of the ball, as they rate at 0.2

yppl better than average with dynamic frosh

quarterback Pat White at the controls while Pittsburgh

is 0.8 yppl worse than average on offense (4.6 yppl

against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average

team). White had been splitting time with Adam

Bednarik for most of the season, but White played so

well when Bednarik was injured that he is now

entrenched at quarterback even though Bednarik is now

healthy. White has averaged 6.7 yards per pass play

(against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average

quarterback) and he has run for 497 yards on 71 runs

(7.1 yards per rushing play). My math model favors

West Virginia by 19 points in this game and the

Mounties are 16-4 ATS under coach Rodriguez in

conference games when not favored by 14 points or

more. West Virginia is a Strong Opinion at -14 ½ or

more, but I'll make West Virginia a 2-Star Best Bet if

they are favored by 14 points or less.

EAST CAROLINA (+5.5) 33 UAB 31

26-Nov-05 09:00 AM Pacific Time

East Carolina won as a dog on the road for me last

week and I'll take the underrated Pirates getting

points at home this week. UAB does have a very good

quarterback in Darrell Hackney and the Blazers' attack

is 0.8 yards per play better than average (6.5 yppl

against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average

team). East Carolina's defense is 0.6 yppl worse than

average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average

5.0 yppl against an average team), so UAB has an

overall advantage of 1.4 yppl when they have the ball.

East Carolina, however, also has a veteran quarterback

in James Pinkney and the Pirates are 0.1 yppl better

than average offensively (5.8 yppl against teams that

would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team). UAB's

defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl

allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9

yppl against an average team), so the Pirates should

move the ball well when they have the ball given their

0.5 yppl advantage over UAB's defense. UAB does have

an overall 0.9 yppl advantage from the line of

scrimmage and my math model forecasts the Blazers to

out-gain the Pirates by 32 total yards (after

adjusting for ECU's home field advantage). However,

UAB's Achilles heal is their poor special teams and

East Carolina's good special teams have a 6.2 points

advantage in this game. My special teams are a big

reason my math model has done so well this season, as

most handicappers and the linesmakers don't give

enough credit for the field position that special

teams accounts for. Overall, my math model favors East

Carolina by 2 ½ points and UAB is also only 4-10 ATS

as a favorite in conference play the last 4 years,

including 1-4 ATS this season, while East Carolina is

6-2 ATS this season as an underdog. I'll consider East

Carolina a Strong Opinion in this game at +3 points or

more.

KENTUCKY (+9.5) 23 Tennessee 26

26-Nov-05 09:30 AM Pacific Time

Tennessee is 0-12 ATS in their last 12 games as a

favorite, including 0-6 ATS this season and I don't

mind favoring an underrated Kentucky squad that has

covered 5 straight home games. The Vols are still a

good defensive team (4.8 yards per play allowed to

teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average

defense), but the Vols' attack has been 0.4 yppl worse

than average this season, which is horrible for an SEC

team. Tennessee is better offensively with Rick

Clausen at quarterback and they are a better running

team with Arian Foster as the featured back in place

of injured Gerald Riggs. With Clausen and Foster the

Volunteers rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average

offensively and that unit should move the ball pretty

well against a Kentucky defense that is 0.5 yppl worse

than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would

average 5.5 yppl against an average team) since

injuries took an early toll on the Wildcats' defense

in week 2. Kentucky's offense is only 0.2 yppl worse

than average now that top receiver Keenan Burton is

back in the lineup (he missed 4 games in the middle of

the season), but Tennessee's good defense has a big

edge in that match-up. Overall, Tennessee has a

significant advantage from the line of scrimmage but

Kentucky's outstanding special teams are 6.0 points

better than Tennessee's sub-par special teams units

and the math favors Tennessee by only 3 ½ points in

this game. I'll consider Kentucky a Strong Opinion in

this game.

Virginia (+18.5) 14 MIAMI FLA 27

26-Nov-05 12:30 PM Pacific Time

Miami could be a bit flat after seeing their slim

chance of being a part of the National Championship

game end with a loss to Georgia Tech last week. Teams

that lose as a double-digit favorite usually do not

rebound the next week and the Hurricanes apply to a

negative 44-70-2 ATS situation that is based on that

premise. Virginia, meanwhile, applies to a 97-41-2 ATS

blowout bounce-back situation that was brought on by

last week's 14-52 loss to Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers

are certainly not a great team, as their offense is

just average (5.3 yards per play against teams that

would allow 5.3 yppl to an average offensive team)

with quarterback Marques Hagans on the field and their

defense has only been 0.1 yppl better than average

this season (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would

average 5.3 yppl against an average team). That unit

did get better with the return to healthy of

All-American LB Ahmad Brooks and they are 0.4 yppl

better than average since he returned to full-time

playing status. Miami's offense is just 0.4 yppl

better than average without star running back Tyrone

Moss, but the Hurricanes' dominating defense (3.6 yppl

allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against

an average stop unit) has a huge advantage over the

Cavaliers' offense. Virginia does have an advantage in

special teams and my math model favors Miami by 18

points, which is where the oddsmakers have the game.

While we don't have any line value, the situations

favoring Virginia give the Cavs a profitable 56.8%

chance of covering and their bad road record (9-17 ATS

under coach Al Groh) isn't as bad if they are coming

off a loss (4-5 ATS) or if they have the revenge

motive (3-2 ATS), so I'll consider Virginia a Strong

Opinion at +17 points or more. Upgrade Virginia to a

2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 21

points or more.