Baltimore at Chicago O/U 30.5

There has only been one NFL game in the last 20 years that closed with a total under 31. In 1994, Chicago defeated Arizona 19-16 when the game had a total of 30.5. As of Wednesday morning, the under is priced at 30.5 -111. Why is this game so low?

From a yards per play analysis, Baltimore and Chicago have the #1 and #2 defenses allowing approximately 4.3 yards per play each. Offensively, they rate #29 and #26 respectively with 4.1 and 4.7 yards per play. Both have rushed for more than 100 yards per game. Combine outstanding defenses with poor rush-based offenses and you get the lowest game total of all time. What is the lowest scoring NFL game in the last 20 years? In 2003, the Jets beat the Steelers 6-0 (with a total of 38.5).

We opened this game at 32 flat and immediately saw sharp action on the under. We had some smaller players taking the over at plus money selling points. Several professional scalpers played over 30.5 (+106), but up until now the sharps are neutral at the current number.

Indianapolis (-15) at Houston

Most sharps shudder at the thought of laying more than 7 points in the NFL in any match-up and would rather play large dogs. I know many pros who won't lay more than 7 points no matter how good it looks. On the other side are the "public" bettors who are unafraid to lay any number. For that group, Indy has been a covering machine and they are now 8-4 against the spread in the last two years when favored by more than 7 points.

Houston is the NFL's only winless team this year. Why are they so bad? They have averaged 3.8 yards per play compared to a league average of 5.3. In five games, Houston has allowed thirty QB sacks. This means that in a typical twelve possessions for the Texans, 42% of these face a long passing situation against a nickel or dime defense. These problems combine to limit Houston to less than 11 points per game.

We opened the game at -15 and received large hits from sharps at +15 and +14. We dealt briefly at +13 but were then flooded with Indy money. It looks like the sharps are on Houston at +14 or higher, while the public is favoring Indianapolis.