Winning Points
****BEST BET
Baltimore over *Chicago by 18
Baltimore has played two road contests so far this season, losing 25-10 to
the Titans and self-destructing, 35-17, to the Lions. In those two games, the
Ravens committed a combined 31 penalties for 220 yards. So you have a
perfect right to ask why go with the Ravens now in their third road game?
Beacause the Ravens have learned their lessons. Quarterback Anthony
Wright is playing much better than he did when he played the Titans in
Week 2.This game is on grass, Baltimore’s natural surface.The Ravens have
a minus seven turnover ratio. These things tend to even themselves up
when you have a defense as good as Baltimore’s.The biggest handicapping
factor, though, is taking the Ravens’ defense against a bad Bears offense that
is trying to get by with a rookie quarterback and a banged-up offensive line.
Kyle Orton has thrown four touchdown passes and seven interceptions.
He’s averaging less than 135 yards passing a game. He’s thrown for just 117
yards each of the last two weeks against the Browns and Vikings, not exactly
fearsome defenses.The Bears have been relying on an excellent defense
and running back Thomas Jones. But Chicago’s defense is going to get worn
down by the Ravens’ ground attack led by Jamal Lewis and change-of-pace
back Chester Taylor, plus a short passing attack,which is improved with the
return to health of tight end Todd Heap. Jones isn’t 100 percent. He almost
didn’t play last week because of an injured knee.The Bears were lucky to
be playing the Vikings because they were missing two key starting offensive
linemen, tackle John Tait (check status) and guard Reuben Brown
(check status).The Bears are going to struggle mightily if those two are out
against the Ravens. BALTIMORE 24-6.
***BEST BET
San Diego over *Philadelphia by 13
Every week it seems the Chargers draw a team coming off their bye. First
it was Pittsburgh two weeks ago, then Oakland last week and now the rested
Eagles. In this instance, though, the Chargers finally catch a scheduling
break.They draw the Eagles at low ebb.The Eagles’ defense isn’t so intimidating
anymore.They have just three sacks their last four games – and that
was against immobile quarterbacks Kerry Collins, Trent Green and Drew
Bledsoe. Not only is Chargers quarterback Drew Brees nimble, but he has
the best running back in the game, LaDainian Tomlinson.The Eagles went
into their bye ranked 24th in run defense. For the first time since 1997, the
Eagles have allowed back-to-back games of 30 or more points. It’s not just
Philly’s run defense, which misses nose guard Corey Simon, which is vulnerable.
Defensive end Jevon Kearse has done nothing so far this season,
and there are concerns about the Eagles’ secondary, which has surrendered
seven touchdowns the last three games. Philly also has worries on offense,
too. The Eagles lack a sustained ground game, thus putting almost all the
pressure on Donovan McNabb.The Eagles ranked last in rushing entering
their bye week, averaging just 64 yards a game. Getting an extra week rest
may help McNabb. The Eagles are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four years following
their bye. But the fact remains McNabb is trying to gut the season
out despite suffering from various aliments with the most serious being a
sports hernia. San Diego is a fantastic 10-0-2 ATS their past 12 road games.
They have one of the league’s most dangerous return men, Darren Sproles.
The Eagles’ special teams haven’t been performing well and star kicker
David Akers isn’t expected back yet. SAN DIEGO 30-17.
Preferred
Green Bay over *Minnesota by 11
The record shows 1-4. But the Packers are a dangerous team. They have
outscored their opposition by 29 points.The Packers have had two weeks
to game plan for their arch-rivals following a huge 49-point win against the
Saints, the Packers’ biggest margin of victory in 38 years. Green Bay’s passing
game is restored,Brett Favre has his confidence back and Ahman Green,
who missed the New Orleans game, is expected back to boost the ground
attack. Minnesota ranked last in rush defense through Week 5 and have a
cluster injury problem in its defensive line along with injuries in the secondary.
The Vikings’ offensive line is unsettled. Daunte Culpepper has been
a turnover machine with 12 interceptions. The Packers are the more
focused club.They don’t have off-the-field distractions like the Vikings do
after their recent floating brothel escapades. Vikings Coach Mike Tice is
about as effective a leader as the skipper in Gilligan’s Island.The Vikings are
reeling emotionally and as far as playing on carpet, Green Bay has defeated
the Vikings in Minnesota each of the past two years. Because of the extra
time, the Packers also could get back tight end Bubba Franks and center
Mike Flanagan to further boost the offense. GREEN BAY 38-27.
*Miami over Kansas City by 10
For the first time in four weeks the Dolphins are at home.That’s bad news
for the Chiefs. Miami is 2-0 at home this season with impressive victories
against Denver and Carolina.The Chiefs don’t know what it’s like to play in
humid South Florida during the first half of the season. Their last visit to
Miami was 1997. It’s Kansas City’s first road trip in four weeks and they
have a look-ahead game up next vs. the Chargers.The Dolphins should be
fully focused for this matchup.You know Nick Saban will be cracking the
whip hard after two straight shoddy Miami performances. Look for Ricky
Williams to be more in flow with the offense after making his debut last
week. He won’t be so rusty this week. Quarterback Gus Frerotte should
play better, too, being home against a bad defense and weak secondary.
Frerotte has thrown two touchdowns in each of Miami’s home games.The
Chiefs have only put up four touchdown passes all season. Quarterback
Trent Green has yet to throw for more than 237 yards in a game. Kansas
City’s strength is its ground game. But Miami came into Week 6 ranked No.
4 in defense and No. 2 in rush defense. The Dolphins have forced six
turnovers in their two home games. MIAMI 26-16.
OVER/UNDER
**OVER: Green Bay at Minnesota – Both teams have vulnerable secondaries,
and the Packers have gone over 14 of their last 16 on artificial turf.
UNDER: Denver at New York Giants – Denver is averaging 15 points on
the road, while the Giants haven’t faced a strong defense.
OVER: Tennessee at Arizona – The Titans have scored at least 23 points
four of the last five weeks, but their porous secondary has surrendered 13
touchdown passes.
NCAA
****BEST BET
OREGON over ARIZONA* by 27
If ever a college football team had an opportunity to get down on itself and lose
focus, it would have been Mike Bellotti’s Ducks a month ago. Off of a rare nonbowl
season in 2004, Bellotti made some key changes, particularly the hiring of
Gary Crowtown to open up the offense, and they began the campaign with some
solid efforts. Then on week #4 the Big Dreams came to the table, as they outplayed
Southern Cal for the first 30 minutes at Autzen Stadium. It all came apart,
of course, in an 0-35 second half run-out, and it would have been easy for this particular
group to go into a funk. They did not do that. Since that game they have
gone on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in Pac 10 play, beating Stanford, Arizona State and
Washington by a combined 62 points. Kellen Clemens has been an excellent fit for
Crowton’s spread schemes, but just as impressive has been a defense that rebounded
from that second half vs. the Trojans to play with a real swagger. Now they can
carry that momentum over against an Arizona team that is playing without any
confidence at all right now, and the timing is outstanding. Having already conquered
the conference road twice there is plenty of confidence, and with a bye
week on deck it also means no letting up at all here - they will game plan for the
Wildcats as though this were a bowl game. That is not good news for Mike Stoops
out-manned squad. They have only come up with seven takeaways all season, and
after getting dinged for 39 first downs and 725 yards at Southern Cal, they will not
get in the way of the rhythm of Clemens and the Ducks. OREGON 41-14.
***BEST BET
WAKE FOREST* over N. C. STATE by 15
In 2004 Chuck Amato fielded a talented N. C. State team has out-played most of
its opponents, but lost some heart-breaking games due to mistakes and some bad
bounces. They had the statistics of a New Year’s Bowl team, but ultimately a losing
record. That has carried over into this season, and now we have a team that is
losing its way. The talent is only good, but not great, and in their last three games
they were the ones getting the lucky bounces – if not for a couple of fluky plays vs.
Georgia Tech they would have gone 0-3 in that stretch despite being favored in two
of the three games. Now we have a matchup that is Amato’s worst nightmare.
While he has loaded the roster with players from Florida in an effort to upgrade
their overall talent, those same players do not take these Tobacco Road games a
seriously as their opponents. They are now on an 0-6 ATS run against their in-state
A.C.C. opponents, losing those games to the spread by a combined 75 points. And
this particular matchup might be Amato’s biggest headache of all. Now his team
has its fundamentals severely tested by a gritty Deacon squad that plays much
smarter football. In each of the last two meetings in the series the Wolfpack were
large favorites, yet they had to escape with an overtime win at home last year, and
were whipped 38-24 here two years ago. In those two games the Deacons beat the
spread by 32.5 in regulation, and we expect the same here, with the Wake execution
under Cory Randolph at QB (no turnovers at Florida State and Boston
College the past two weeks) up to the task. WAKE FOREST 31-16.
Preferred
Oklahoma* over Baylor by 26
While other programs that saw their big expectations get crushed early in the season
often go flat, we do not see any signs of that at all from Bob Stoops and his
Sooners. That is a sign of a team that is still working hard in practice every day,
and as such they can become an excellent value as they fly far below their usual spot
on the radar screen. And this is an ideal spot for us to step in. The Bears were on
quite a roll until that deflating loss to Nebraska at Waco on Saturday night, but
that also exposes some of the shortcomings for a team that plays with passion, but
lacks game-breaking talent. Meanwhile the Sooners have that kind of talent, with
Rhett Bomar being able to absorb a little more of the playbook each week, and the
defense is still capable of being a dominating unit vs. this class in Big 12 play (just
ask Kansas State and Kansas). The Bears did not score a point, and managed just
156 yards, in losing 35-0 at home last year, and not all that much has changed on
that side of the ball. OKLAHOMA 36-10.
Ball State over Ohio* by 2
The oddsmakers are going to struggle in making numbers on these Cardinals for
the remainder of the season, and this is the ideal spot to step in. While those nonconference
smashings by a combined 157-3 vs. Iowa, Auburn and Boston College
can not be eliminated from the log books or the statistical columns, they have
absolutely no meaning at all here. It was an extremely short-handed team playing
those games because of the suspensions throughout the program, and now that
they finally have all hands on deck again they are more than capable of grabbing a
few W’s in M.A.C. play. They were able to pull the outright upset at Western
Michigan two weeks ago, and now they bring more weapons at the skill position
to the table than Frank Solich can muster from his limited roster. With the Bobcats
also bereft of depth in the OL because of injuries this Ohio offense can not escape
its current doldrums (have only reached 200 yards either running or passing once
in a game all season). BALL STATE 22-20.
Army over Akron* by 1
Bobby Ross and his Cadets have get to break into the victory column this season,
but as always there is no lack of effort, and with just a bounce or two they could
be 3-3 instead of 0-6. But instead of getting down on themselves we believe the
usual work ethic will be there all the way to the final game vs. Navy, and in a game
in which they give up no physical dimensions we will call for the breakthrough this
week. The setting is ideal, as they catch the favored Zips in a major flat spot, off of
a key M.A.C. revenge affair vs. Miami O. (it was the RedHawks that kept them
from playing in the league title game last year), and with another showdown vs.
Bowling Green on deck. Meanwhile we get excellent value from Army’s loss at
T.C.U. on Saturday night, a most misleading score in that they trailed only 24-17
midway through the fourth quarter. Look for Carlton Jones and Scott Wesley to
find plenty of room on the ground vs. this defense, which creates a chance to control
the football and the game flow. ARMY 27-26.
Arizona State over Stanford* by 21
Two Pac 10 road wins in a row already puts Walt Harris ahead of Buddy Teevens,
and puts salve on some of those early wounds at Palo Alto. But we are not convinced
at all that the Cardinal are ready to turn the corner. They won those last
two games by going +7 in turnover ratio, and even with such a monstrous edge that
was only good enough for escapes by 24-21 and 20-16. The offense was downright
feeble at Arizona, managing only 11 first downs and 195 yards, and the timing is
not right for any kind of improvements here. Now they take on a talented Sun
Devil team that goes into its “Second Seasonâ€Â
