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   Sports Reporter

   SUPER BEST BET

   *NORTH CAROLINA over VIRGINIA by 21

   So, Al Groh. You finally reversed those Florida State embarrassments. In front of a national

   TV audience, too. Where are you going next? “Uh, I’m going to Chapel Hill.â€Â

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 21 2005 3:57pm
2. 0 likes

   Kevin O'neill - The Max

   Saturday, October 22, 2005

   Hawks Soar

   @Iowa (-2½) over Michigan

   Michigan scored a nice win on the last play of the

   game against Penn State but there is no disputing

   that the Wolverines are down. The win makes the

   Wolverines 4-5 in their last 9 games of Big 10 action

   back to last season. They face a tough opponent

   here. Iowa played terrible games at Iowa State and

   Ohio State but their young talent is developing

   nicely under their fine coaching staff and the result

   has been consecutive blowout wins over Iowa, at

   Purdue, and over Indiana. Iowa comes into this

   game with a lot of momentum.

   Iowa’s talented young players (much improved

   recruiting aided by NFL success of Iowa players

   since Ferentz arrived) are improving rapidly, while

   we don’t see the same thing happening with the

   Wolverines. Iowa QB Drew Tate is better positioned

   to take advantage of injuries in Michigan secondary

   than Penn State QB Robinson, who didn’t play well

   on Saturday.

   Michigan is to be commended for winning their last

   two road dog appearances, with an upset win at

   Michigan State this year and at Purdue last season.

   But the setup is tough for the Wolverines in this

   one. UM has the satisfaction of a comeback win

   against a formerly undefeated team and now heads

   into a tough environment, as Iowa is 24-4-1 against

   the spread on their home field and the Kinnick

   Stadium advantage will be even more pronounced

   this week, as Iowa has a well established inferiority

   complex and would love the opportunity to take

   down one of the media darlings from the eastern

   side of the conference. Well-coached Hawkeyes

   get it done. Iowa by 10.

   Historical Handicap

   Nebraska (+3) over @Missouri

   Missouri had the good fortune of having QB Brad

   Smith knocked out of the game with a little under

   minutes left against Iowa State on Saturday. The

   senior QB was playing terribly and having his bell

   rung game Missouri the opportunity to insert

   redshirt freshman Chase Daniel. Daniel led the

   Tigers on TD drives of 73 and 87 yards in the

   minutes of the game to force overtime, where

   Tigers won on a field goal after Iowa State missed

   field goal of their own. Daniel had played a series

   in the first half and will likely continue to see action,

   although he will not supplant senior star Smith

   the starter. But Nebraska will be more ready for

   Daniel than Iowa State was. ISU’s entire defensive

   scheme was designed to thwart Smith, and it

   worked.Nebraska played well on Saturday as a small favorite

   at Baylor. Nebraska outrushed a very sound (4-1

   heading into the game) Baylor team 182-51.

   Remember that Baylor just missed winning at A&M

   and won at Iowa State, but Nebraska physically

   dominated them on both sides of the ball.

   Interestingly, it appears at though Bill Callahan is

   shunning his west coast offense to an extent, as the

   Huskers threw the ball only 8 times in the entire

   second half. The win was impressive considering

   the horror of the loss to Texas Tech the week before

   (game clinching interception was fumbled, giving the

   Red Raiders new life and a win).

   As horrible as Nebraska was last year, they beat

   Missouri 24-3. Smith was terrible in that game,

   completing only 24 of 56 for less than 5 yards per

   pass attempt. Nebraska won rushing yardage 209-

   51. Callahan knows what worked last year against

   Mizzou and what worked last week against Baylor.

   Look for Nebraska to run the ball and handle the

   Missouri offense.

   Last year the Huskers were a small home dog, and

   despite handling Missouri handily in that one they

   are a small road dog here. Nebraska’s Black Shirt

   defense is excellent and as the Huskers run the ball

   more their results should be favorable. Nebraska

   by 4.

   Bearing Down

   @California (-11½) over Washington State

   Statistical projections suggested that California

   would destroy Oregon State on Saturday but Cal let

   down big time from their stunning loss at UCLA

   which knocked them from the undefeated ranks.

   Cal was killed by 5 turnovers that helped hand

   Oregon State a surprise victory. Cal QB Joe Ayoob

   appears to have the little girl with the curl

   syndrome, and he was very, very bad in this one,

   throwing for a terrible 13 for 39 with 2 interceptions.

   You know that Cal Coach Jeff Tedford will be

   reading the riot act this week about the turnovers.

   He already began the discipline by benching

   Marshawn Lynch for the second half. The Golden

   Bears lose nothing when Justin Forsett goes into the

   lineup, as both are extremely productive runners.

   Cal was up against it all night, as they started 8 of

   their 16 possessions inside their own 15-yard line.

   Last week Cal had trouble getting up after blowing a

   big lead in their previous outing. Now Cal faces a

   team in that exact situation. Washington State is 0-

   3 in conference play after blowing a couple of 21-

   point leads against UCLA and losing in overtime.

   That followed a 14-point blown lead against Oregon

   State and a horrific loss to a bad Stanford team.

   Difficult to see WSU being primed for a peak

   performance this week, as their bowl hopes are

   quickly going down the drain. On the other hand,

   Cal will use their running game to dominate the line

   of scrimmage here, as last week was the first time in

   19 games that the Bears didn’t have a 100-yard

   rusher, which is an amazing figure. Tedford is a

   sharp guy; he’ll find a way to get the offense back

   on track. The QB guru helped Ayoob bounce back

   from a horrendous performance against Sacramento

   State to have a huge game at Washington. Look for

   the work they do this week to be productive, and for

   them to get a big win against a team still stunned by

   their blown lead overtime loss to an undefeated

   opponent. Cal by 18.

   Defenseless Favorite

   Oregon State (+9) over @UCLA

   It is amazing that UCLA is undefeated, as their

   defense is terrible. Against Cal a couple of weeks

   ago the Bruins gave up 330 rushing yards. In their

   comeback win at Washington State they gave up an

   identical 330 yards. This is a historical event, as

   you’d have to look long and hard to find a team that

   gave up over 300 yards rushing on consecutive

   weeks yet won both games.

   Though this is largely a play against UCLA, Oregon

   State does have some merits. Mike Riley is a better

   defensive schemer than given credit for. As a result

   of playing air-it-out types like Louisville, Boise State,

   and Washington State, Oregon State entered their

   game last weekend ranked dead last in pass defense

   in the NCAA statistical rankings. But OSU stacked

   the line to limit the running game and Cal couldn’t

   recover. Oregon State may have a similar

   advantage in scheming here. Also, the Beavers

   may have an antidote to UCLA’s terrific punt return

   game, as OSU punter Sam Paulescu dropped 2

   punts on the 1-yard line at Cal.

   There is little doubt that the 39 Californians on the

   OSU roster have a chip on their shoulder when they

   play the big name schools of the Golden State. That

   will help offset their being in a letdown situation

   (road dog off a road dog upset win) here. UCLA has

   no such offset and are due for a fall after their

   fortunate comeback wins. OSU hangs in there in a

   high scoring game. UCLA by only 3.

   Coaching Familiarity

   @UNLV (+12½) over Utah

   UNLV is not a good team. No surprise there. But

   they do enjoy one significant edge in this ballgame.

   Rebel coach Mike Sanford was the offensive

   coordinator of the Utes in their two dream seasons

   of 2003 and 2004. He famously rushed out of a

   Utah practice for the Fiesta Bowl to take the UNLV

   job. Obviously he is intimately familiar with the Utes

   and their entire program. He knows the personnel,

   the schemes, the talent, the strengths and

   weaknesses. He also has a couple of staffers with

   him from Utah. They know this Utes team.

   Both of these teams are 1-3 in the conference and

   with the knowledge that UNLV’s Sanford has of the

   Utes, the double digit road dog pricing obviously has

   a heck of a lot of last year in it, and is far less a

   reflection on Utah’s current abilities. The Utes

   average game last year was a 45-20 win, this year

   the average contest is a 24-24 tie. Last year on

   October 23, Utah was favored by 24 over UNLV.

   That game was at Utah, but if you take away 3 for

   home field and give that 3 to UNLV we’re looking at

   about 18 or so. UNLV is just about as bad as they

   were this year so this line suggests that Utah is only

   5 points worse than they were this same weekend

   last year. That doesn’t seem to be enough of an

   adjustment and gives us some value on the Rebels.

   Utah won that game 63-28, and as a result of that

   loss last year and UNLV’s getting dismantled at Air

   Force, the Rebs are in a solid “off a blowout with

   revengeâ€Â

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 21 2005 3:58pm
3. 0 likes

   The Max NFL

   Site Specific

   @Dolphins (-1½) over Chiefs

   The Dolphins were a disappointment on Sunday,

   struggling offensively and not taking advantage of

   having Cadillac Williams and Brian Griese (2nd

   quarter injury) out of the Buc lineup. Ricky Williams

   didn’t do anything positive. They lost a pair of

   fumbles and Gus Ferotte was only 21-43 and missed

   some open receivers deep when getting pressure.

   According to Zack Thomas, “We’re not doing

   anything right, we’re not executing..â€Â

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 21 2005 3:58pm
4. 0 likes

   Winning Points

   ****BEST BET

   Baltimore over *Chicago by 18

   Baltimore has played two road contests so far this season, losing 25-10 to

   the Titans and self-destructing, 35-17, to the Lions. In those two games, the

   Ravens committed a combined 31 penalties for 220 yards. So you have a

   perfect right to ask why go with the Ravens now in their third road game?

   Beacause the Ravens have learned their lessons. Quarterback Anthony

   Wright is playing much better than he did when he played the Titans in

   Week 2.This game is on grass, Baltimore’s natural surface.The Ravens have

   a minus seven turnover ratio. These things tend to even themselves up

   when you have a defense as good as Baltimore’s.The biggest handicapping

   factor, though, is taking the Ravens’ defense against a bad Bears offense that

   is trying to get by with a rookie quarterback and a banged-up offensive line.

   Kyle Orton has thrown four touchdown passes and seven interceptions.

   He’s averaging less than 135 yards passing a game. He’s thrown for just 117

   yards each of the last two weeks against the Browns and Vikings, not exactly

   fearsome defenses.The Bears have been relying on an excellent defense

   and running back Thomas Jones. But Chicago’s defense is going to get worn

   down by the Ravens’ ground attack led by Jamal Lewis and change-of-pace

   back Chester Taylor, plus a short passing attack,which is improved with the

   return to health of tight end Todd Heap. Jones isn’t 100 percent. He almost

   didn’t play last week because of an injured knee.The Bears were lucky to

   be playing the Vikings because they were missing two key starting offensive

   linemen, tackle John Tait (check status) and guard Reuben Brown

   (check status).The Bears are going to struggle mightily if those two are out

   against the Ravens. BALTIMORE 24-6.

   ***BEST BET

   San Diego over *Philadelphia by 13

   Every week it seems the Chargers draw a team coming off their bye. First

   it was Pittsburgh two weeks ago, then Oakland last week and now the rested

   Eagles. In this instance, though, the Chargers finally catch a scheduling

   break.They draw the Eagles at low ebb.The Eagles’ defense isn’t so intimidating

   anymore.They have just three sacks their last four games – and that

   was against immobile quarterbacks Kerry Collins, Trent Green and Drew

   Bledsoe. Not only is Chargers quarterback Drew Brees nimble, but he has

   the best running back in the game, LaDainian Tomlinson.The Eagles went

   into their bye ranked 24th in run defense. For the first time since 1997, the

   Eagles have allowed back-to-back games of 30 or more points. It’s not just

   Philly’s run defense, which misses nose guard Corey Simon, which is vulnerable.

   Defensive end Jevon Kearse has done nothing so far this season,

   and there are concerns about the Eagles’ secondary, which has surrendered

   seven touchdowns the last three games. Philly also has worries on offense,

   too. The Eagles lack a sustained ground game, thus putting almost all the

   pressure on Donovan McNabb.The Eagles ranked last in rushing entering

   their bye week, averaging just 64 yards a game. Getting an extra week rest

   may help McNabb. The Eagles are 4-0 SU and ATS the past four years following

   their bye. But the fact remains McNabb is trying to gut the season

   out despite suffering from various aliments with the most serious being a

   sports hernia. San Diego is a fantastic 10-0-2 ATS their past 12 road games.

   They have one of the league’s most dangerous return men, Darren Sproles.

   The Eagles’ special teams haven’t been performing well and star kicker

   David Akers isn’t expected back yet. SAN DIEGO 30-17.

   Preferred

   Green Bay over *Minnesota by 11

   The record shows 1-4. But the Packers are a dangerous team. They have

   outscored their opposition by 29 points.The Packers have had two weeks

   to game plan for their arch-rivals following a huge 49-point win against the

   Saints, the Packers’ biggest margin of victory in 38 years. Green Bay’s passing

   game is restored,Brett Favre has his confidence back and Ahman Green,

   who missed the New Orleans game, is expected back to boost the ground

   attack. Minnesota ranked last in rush defense through Week 5 and have a

   cluster injury problem in its defensive line along with injuries in the secondary.

   The Vikings’ offensive line is unsettled. Daunte Culpepper has been

   a turnover machine with 12 interceptions. The Packers are the more

   focused club.They don’t have off-the-field distractions like the Vikings do

   after their recent floating brothel escapades. Vikings Coach Mike Tice is

   about as effective a leader as the skipper in Gilligan’s Island.The Vikings are

   reeling emotionally and as far as playing on carpet, Green Bay has defeated

   the Vikings in Minnesota each of the past two years. Because of the extra

   time, the Packers also could get back tight end Bubba Franks and center

   Mike Flanagan to further boost the offense. GREEN BAY 38-27.

   *Miami over Kansas City by 10

   For the first time in four weeks the Dolphins are at home.That’s bad news

   for the Chiefs. Miami is 2-0 at home this season with impressive victories

   against Denver and Carolina.The Chiefs don’t know what it’s like to play in

   humid South Florida during the first half of the season. Their last visit to

   Miami was 1997. It’s Kansas City’s first road trip in four weeks and they

   have a look-ahead game up next vs. the Chargers.The Dolphins should be

   fully focused for this matchup.You know Nick Saban will be cracking the

   whip hard after two straight shoddy Miami performances. Look for Ricky

   Williams to be more in flow with the offense after making his debut last

   week. He won’t be so rusty this week. Quarterback Gus Frerotte should

   play better, too, being home against a bad defense and weak secondary.

   Frerotte has thrown two touchdowns in each of Miami’s home games.The

   Chiefs have only put up four touchdown passes all season. Quarterback

   Trent Green has yet to throw for more than 237 yards in a game. Kansas

   City’s strength is its ground game. But Miami came into Week 6 ranked No.

   4 in defense and No. 2 in rush defense. The Dolphins have forced six

   turnovers in their two home games. MIAMI 26-16.

   OVER/UNDER

   **OVER: Green Bay at Minnesota – Both teams have vulnerable secondaries,

   and the Packers have gone over 14 of their last 16 on artificial turf.

   UNDER: Denver at New York Giants – Denver is averaging 15 points on

   the road, while the Giants haven’t faced a strong defense.

   OVER: Tennessee at Arizona – The Titans have scored at least 23 points

   four of the last five weeks, but their porous secondary has surrendered 13

   touchdown passes.

   NCAA

   ****BEST BET

   OREGON over ARIZONA* by 27

   If ever a college football team had an opportunity to get down on itself and lose

   focus, it would have been Mike Bellotti’s Ducks a month ago. Off of a rare nonbowl

   season in 2004, Bellotti made some key changes, particularly the hiring of

   Gary Crowtown to open up the offense, and they began the campaign with some

   solid efforts. Then on week #4 the Big Dreams came to the table, as they outplayed

   Southern Cal for the first 30 minutes at Autzen Stadium. It all came apart,

   of course, in an 0-35 second half run-out, and it would have been easy for this particular

   group to go into a funk. They did not do that. Since that game they have

   gone on a 3-0 SU and ATS run in Pac 10 play, beating Stanford, Arizona State and

   Washington by a combined 62 points. Kellen Clemens has been an excellent fit for

   Crowton’s spread schemes, but just as impressive has been a defense that rebounded

   from that second half vs. the Trojans to play with a real swagger. Now they can

   carry that momentum over against an Arizona team that is playing without any

   confidence at all right now, and the timing is outstanding. Having already conquered

   the conference road twice there is plenty of confidence, and with a bye

   week on deck it also means no letting up at all here - they will game plan for the

   Wildcats as though this were a bowl game. That is not good news for Mike Stoops

   out-manned squad. They have only come up with seven takeaways all season, and

   after getting dinged for 39 first downs and 725 yards at Southern Cal, they will not

   get in the way of the rhythm of Clemens and the Ducks. OREGON 41-14.

   ***BEST BET

   WAKE FOREST* over N. C. STATE by 15

   In 2004 Chuck Amato fielded a talented N. C. State team has out-played most of

   its opponents, but lost some heart-breaking games due to mistakes and some bad

   bounces. They had the statistics of a New Year’s Bowl team, but ultimately a losing

   record. That has carried over into this season, and now we have a team that is

   losing its way. The talent is only good, but not great, and in their last three games

   they were the ones getting the lucky bounces – if not for a couple of fluky plays vs.

   Georgia Tech they would have gone 0-3 in that stretch despite being favored in two

   of the three games. Now we have a matchup that is Amato’s worst nightmare.

   While he has loaded the roster with players from Florida in an effort to upgrade

   their overall talent, those same players do not take these Tobacco Road games a

   seriously as their opponents. They are now on an 0-6 ATS run against their in-state

   A.C.C. opponents, losing those games to the spread by a combined 75 points. And

   this particular matchup might be Amato’s biggest headache of all. Now his team

   has its fundamentals severely tested by a gritty Deacon squad that plays much

   smarter football. In each of the last two meetings in the series the Wolfpack were

   large favorites, yet they had to escape with an overtime win at home last year, and

   were whipped 38-24 here two years ago. In those two games the Deacons beat the

   spread by 32.5 in regulation, and we expect the same here, with the Wake execution

   under Cory Randolph at QB (no turnovers at Florida State and Boston

   College the past two weeks) up to the task. WAKE FOREST 31-16.

   Preferred

   Oklahoma* over Baylor by 26

   While other programs that saw their big expectations get crushed early in the season

   often go flat, we do not see any signs of that at all from Bob Stoops and his

   Sooners. That is a sign of a team that is still working hard in practice every day,

   and as such they can become an excellent value as they fly far below their usual spot

   on the radar screen. And this is an ideal spot for us to step in. The Bears were on

   quite a roll until that deflating loss to Nebraska at Waco on Saturday night, but

   that also exposes some of the shortcomings for a team that plays with passion, but

   lacks game-breaking talent. Meanwhile the Sooners have that kind of talent, with

   Rhett Bomar being able to absorb a little more of the playbook each week, and the

   defense is still capable of being a dominating unit vs. this class in Big 12 play (just

   ask Kansas State and Kansas). The Bears did not score a point, and managed just

   156 yards, in losing 35-0 at home last year, and not all that much has changed on

   that side of the ball. OKLAHOMA 36-10.

   Ball State over Ohio* by 2

   The oddsmakers are going to struggle in making numbers on these Cardinals for

   the remainder of the season, and this is the ideal spot to step in. While those nonconference

   smashings by a combined 157-3 vs. Iowa, Auburn and Boston College

   can not be eliminated from the log books or the statistical columns, they have

   absolutely no meaning at all here. It was an extremely short-handed team playing

   those games because of the suspensions throughout the program, and now that

   they finally have all hands on deck again they are more than capable of grabbing a

   few W’s in M.A.C. play. They were able to pull the outright upset at Western

   Michigan two weeks ago, and now they bring more weapons at the skill position

   to the table than Frank Solich can muster from his limited roster. With the Bobcats

   also bereft of depth in the OL because of injuries this Ohio offense can not escape

   its current doldrums (have only reached 200 yards either running or passing once

   in a game all season). BALL STATE 22-20.

   Army over Akron* by 1

   Bobby Ross and his Cadets have get to break into the victory column this season,

   but as always there is no lack of effort, and with just a bounce or two they could

   be 3-3 instead of 0-6. But instead of getting down on themselves we believe the

   usual work ethic will be there all the way to the final game vs. Navy, and in a game

   in which they give up no physical dimensions we will call for the breakthrough this

   week. The setting is ideal, as they catch the favored Zips in a major flat spot, off of

   a key M.A.C. revenge affair vs. Miami O. (it was the RedHawks that kept them

   from playing in the league title game last year), and with another showdown vs.

   Bowling Green on deck. Meanwhile we get excellent value from Army’s loss at

   T.C.U. on Saturday night, a most misleading score in that they trailed only 24-17

   midway through the fourth quarter. Look for Carlton Jones and Scott Wesley to

   find plenty of room on the ground vs. this defense, which creates a chance to control

   the football and the game flow. ARMY 27-26.

   Arizona State over Stanford* by 21

   Two Pac 10 road wins in a row already puts Walt Harris ahead of Buddy Teevens,

   and puts salve on some of those early wounds at Palo Alto. But we are not convinced

   at all that the Cardinal are ready to turn the corner. They won those last

   two games by going +7 in turnover ratio, and even with such a monstrous edge that

   was only good enough for escapes by 24-21 and 20-16. The offense was downright

   feeble at Arizona, managing only 11 first downs and 195 yards, and the timing is

   not right for any kind of improvements here. Now they take on a talented Sun

   Devil team that goes into its “Second Seasonâ€Â

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 21 2005 3:59pm