8 replies

1. 0 likes

   Marc Lawrence.. BEST BETS

   4* BEST BET

   MIAMI FL over Georgia Tech by 27

   After a month off, (South Florida, Duke and Temple) Miami

   finally gets to play a competitive football team. The

   Hurricanes are happy to get back into the national spotlight.

   We’re not sure Georgia Tech is happy, though. The Yellow

   Jackets are completely beat up physically and, after three

   straight wins to open the season, were manhandled by

   Virginia Tech and dominated by NC State. Miami owns the

   nation's top ranked defense and they laid a similiar number

   on the road at Tech in last year's 27-3 victory. Again.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET

   Tennessee over ALABAMA by 7

   This is one of the more remarkable series in college football.

   Remarkable because the road team has covered 12 of the

   last 13 games in the rivalry. We must note that Alabama

   struggled against a pedestrian Mississippi team last week

   and that Tennessee has played very well at the tough venues

   in Gainesville and Baton Rouge. Tennessee seems to play its

   best against the best and, believe us, that’s a great trait for

   an underdog. With two losses on their ledger and their backs

   to the wall, look for the Vols to move to 7-0 ATS on this field.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   3* BEST BET

   S FLORIDA over W Virginia by 7

   After beating, no pummeling, Louisville at home, South

   Florida went on the road and took two to the groin area. It

   was an expected loss at Miami, but the Bulls figured they

   would beat Pittsburgh. Now, home and angry, they can take

   out their frustrations on a West Virginia team that is just a

   little phony and a little bit fat off the Louisville extravaganza.

   Just look what Louisville did in Tampa then look at what the

   Cardinals did in Morgantown. You don’t need to know

   anything else. We smell an upset.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   5* BEST BET

   Wyoming over COLORADO ST by 13

   There’s not much distance to cover on Highway 287 to get

   from Laramie to Fort Collins and there’s really not much

   difference in the talent levels of these two football teams.

   Nevertheless, the underdog in this series (10-2 ATS last 12)

   has been golden. Today that dog brings 118 yards the better

   defense into this fray, looking to avenge its worse conference

   loss of the season last year. Another 17 returning starter

   dog playing off back to back ATS losses rears its head today.

   Cowboys improve to 23-9 ATS as dogs with revenge

   Marc Lawrence plays from playbook

   PITTSBURGH over Syracuse by 14

   We know Pittsburgh has underachieved, to say the least, this

   season but this is a good spot for the Panthers. They have the

   good fortune of playing the worst road dog in football today.

   Syracuse is 1-8 ATS on the road against avenging opponents and

   a miserable 3-18 ATS in their last 21 chances as a road dog. Both

   teams have wallowed in mediocrity this season, but Pitt seems to

   be the least mediocre of the two.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   MICHIGAN ST over Northwestern by 13

   There’s a strange statistic involving Northwestern here. The Cats

   are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the game before playing Michigan in

   their last eleven tries. A coincidental stat, for sure, but one that

   will dismiss any look-ahead concerns. Here’s what to be concerned

   about if you’re thinking of trying the Spartans. MSU is just 10-21

   ATS in their last 30 chances as favorites, including 0-8 ATS at home

   when they allow 28 or more (NU averaging 35 ppg in 2005). In a

   matchup of 500-yard offenses we'll stay on the sidelines and watch

   the scoreboard short-circuit.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   IOWA over Michigan by 3

   There are some things that just don’t make any sense to do. One

   of those things is to fade the Hawkeyes on their home field. They

   have 21 straight wins here with 18 covers, including 12 consecutive

   SUATS wins against Big Ten opposition. Michigan hasn’t covered

   in its last eight games against the Hawks and is ravaged with

   injuries. We respect the Wolverines as an underdog with its back

   to the wall but, until Iowa loses one here, we’ll keep the Hawkeyes

   off our fade list.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   Ohio St over INDIANA by 15

   We’re well aware of Ohio State’s road woes (just 2-12 ATS in its

   last 14 road chalk roles), but we are also aware of OSU’s 12 straight

   wins over Indiana without allowing the Hoosiers more than 17 in

   any of the wins. We are also in tune to Indiana’s 1-15 ATS mark in

   its last 16 home losses and Ohio State’s 25-9 ATS log in its last 34

   SU road wins against winning teams. Now you're aware, too.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   Florida St over DUKE by 24

   Florida State has covered just one of its last seven games as a DD

   road favorite and Duke is a solid 8-4 ATS as underdogs of +20 or

   more but it's awfully difficult backing the Blue Devils in this. In

   addition to being player-poor to start with, Duke has a myriad of

   injuries that further weakens their nearly nonexistent depth. If

   Florida State still cares (they are a Bubble Burster) they should

   wear Duke down with its relentless pressure, but don't count on

   it. Hold your nose and grab the Dukies.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   Friday, October 21st

   Virginia Tech over MARYLAND by 10

   It’s always difficult to recommend going against Virginia Tech

   considering that the Hokies are 13-2 ATS as road chalk of less than

   10 points (check line) and that they always find a way to score a

   TD they’re not supposed to score. Maryland is playing better after

   a rough start but we’re not sure if the Terrapins have closed the

   gap on Tech (lost last year 55-6). We love home dogs that can play

   but we don’t think this one isn’t going to be on our list.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   TROY over Florida Int’l by 7

   Since Sun Belt teams are 16-32 SU on the conference road over

   the past year and a half and Troy is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 SU wins,

   we would only play the Trojans here. It makes it even easier when

   you consider that the Golden Panthers have never won a lined

   road game. Sun Belt chalk isn’t on our list, either.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   UAB over S Mississippi by 4

   The Blazers have been waiting for two weeks to try and win back

   their fans after that home disaster against SMU. There’s no team

   in the league that UAB would rather beat than the Golden Eagles.

   The problem is they never do. In five tries, the Blazers have yet to

   taste victory. Southern Miss is a pretty good road team with eight

   SU wins and ten covers in its last 13 bus rides, including 8-1 ATS

   when facing a .500 or better foe. Nonetheless, we like the look of

   the Blazers in this battle.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   WAKE FOREST over NC State by 1

   North Carolina State is one of the biggest enigmas – or enemas if

   you’re a Wolfpack booster – in college football. Loaded with talent

   on both sides of the ball, the Wolves are 1-14 ATS in its last 15

   tries as a conference favorite and has won only one of its last

   eight ACC games. Wake’s home win over Clemson and sterling

   effort at FSU and BC bodes ill for the Wolfpack. If Wake remains

   the home dog, we’ll take a hard look at the Deacons here.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   N CAROLINA over Virginia by 6

   The Louisville game notwithstanding, North Carolina is playing

   better football than Virginia. We realize Virginia played its best

   game of the year against Florida State but we remember how

   Boston College pushed the Cavaliers all over the field two weeks

   ago. Carolina hasn’t covered in seven tries against UVA, but the

   Heels are 9-1 ATS in their last ten ACC games and appear poised

   to stop that seven-game pointspread losing streak. Our 'Brilliant

   Disguise' angle (see Marc's BETCHA DIDN'T KNOW on page 2)

   comes into play should UNC go dog.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   S CAROLINA over Vanderbilt by 7

   It would hard to invent a more difficult spot for Vandy than this.

   The Commodores are coming off a pair of brutally physical games

   against LSU and Georgia while South Carolina has had a week of

   rest after its cake walk against Kentucky. Add terrible history (2-11

   SU and 3-10 ATS ) to the Vanderbilt miseries and it could be a long

   day for the Commies. We’d normally lay the points in this situation,

   but SC is not our idea of a playable favorite.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   OKLAHOMA over Baylor by 21

   We won’t dismiss Baylor’s marked improvement this year nor its

   money-making 17-8-1 ATS mark under Guy Morriss. Neither will we

   overlook Baylor’s 12-6-1 ATS log in its last 18 league games. However,

   it’s impossible to ignore the results of the last three games in this

   series. Three Oklahoma wins by a combined score of 125-12 doesn’t

   exactly have us salivating over the underdog Bears. Check the Smart

   Box for an even more compelling reason to look OU’s way.

   Remember, the Sooners laid TWICE this number at Baylor last season.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   GEORGIA over Arkansas by 14

   While Arkansas has held fort against the elite teams of the SEC at

   home, the Hogs have not fared so well on the conference road

   with just four wins in their last 22 games against winning teams.

   That doesn’t mean Arkansas won’t cover this generous number,

   though. Georgia has covered only four times in their last 14 tries

   as a favorite and who could blame the Dawgs for peeking ahead

   at those Florida Gators waiting in Jacksonville. With due respect

   to the great Ray, Georgia is not on our mind today.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   Nebraska over MISSOURI by 6

   Missouri’s offense has been nearly unstoppable this season. They

   are averaging 36 PPG. The problem is they are surrendering 32

   PPG – thus their 3-3 spread mark in 2005. History tell us that

   Missouri is 1-25 SU in its last 26 games against Nebraska. The

   numbers tell us the Huskers own over 100 yards the better defense.

   Nebraska is vastly improved over last year's 5-6 edition, yet they

   are the dog for only the 2nd time in this series over the span of

   the 26 aforementioned games. Oh yeah, they won that game (last

   year) SU by 21 points.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   N Illinois over KENT ST by 16

   The best offense in the MAC takes on one of the worst in this

   battle. NIU has racked up over 500 yards per game thanks to a

   precision balance of running (with Garrett Wolfe and AJ Harris)

   and passing (mostly Phil Horvath to Sam Hurd). MAC observers

   compare this Northern Illinois team to the power combination

   Miami of Ohio possessed with Ben Roethlisberger and his stable

   of capable runners. Kent can’t win this. NIU is just too good. They

   are also 28-5 ATS in their last 33 SU wins,

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   CLEMSON over Temple by 36

   What sadistic tyrant ordered up this schedule for the downtrodden

   Owls? There’s no way that this Temple team can hit the road after

   being torched by Bowling Green, Maryland and Miami of Florida

   in successive weeks. Sure, Clemson will look right past this game

   with three straight revenge games up next, but how much of your

   hard-earned dough to you want to throw down on a team who

   has allowed an average of 66 ppg on the road this year?

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   OHIO U over Ball St by 12

   Playing against Ohio on the road is easy. The Bobcats can’t cover

   a bed when they go up against a good team. It’s a different story

   in Athens as Ohio is a little tougher there. The Bobbies are 11-1

   SU and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 lined home games against sub .333

   teams. Ball State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 tries as a road dog

   and may have shot its wad in Kalamazoo two weeks ago (a 60-57

   Five OT win over Western Michigan). Again, we go to the Smart

   Box for the winner here.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   MEMPHIS over E Carolina by 14

   East Carolina has covered eight of the last nine in this series, but

   nobody has ever accused the Pirates of being a road warrior. ECU

   has won only three of its last 21 away games and Memphis is a

   sterling 65-14-2 ATS in its last 81 SU wins. There’s another

   interesting slant to this game. Memphis has a huge 3.3 net YPR

   advantage over the Pirates by virtue of its 273 rushing yards per

   game average. The Tigers are almost a sure double rusher here.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   MISSISSIPPI ST over Houston by 1

   You would think that SEC teams are unbeatable at home in nonconference

   games and most of them are. Mississippi State,

   however, is not. Who can forget the Black Bears of Maine trotting

   into Starkville and shutting down the Bulldogs in one of the

   biggest shockers of last season? Here’s a flash – Houston is way

   better than Maine.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   NOTRE DAME over Byu by 24

   No one can expect Notre Dame to bring its “Aâ€Â

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 19 2005 2:54pm
2. 0 likes

   Marc Lawrence NFL

   3* BEST BET

   Green Bay over MINNESOTA by 7

   We mentioned before that, despite starting the season 0-4,

   the Packers still have legitimate playoff hopes. Well, so does

   Minnesota thanks to the fact that both teams reside in the

   worst division in the NFL. The difference between the two is

   that Green Bay is 10-3 ATS when playing with division revenge

   while Minnesota is 0-6 ATS when playing a division avenger

   and 0-8 ATS in as a favorite in its last eight division games.

   (We're still looking up their number in games following a

   Hooker Cruise). The Meat Packers have also held their last

   two foes to season low yards. Pack it up.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   5* BEST BET

   SEATTLE over Dallas by 14

   After back-to-back home games against a pair of division

   rivals, Dallas ventures out onto the non-division road to seek

   a win. Sounds like a tough task to refill that emotional tank

   after a pair of games like that. For Dallas, it is. The Cowboys

   are 0-9 ATS against non-division teams, no matter where

   the game is played, when coming off two consecutive

   division games. Seattle has covered eight in a row in the

   second of BB non-division games and is playing as good as

   anyone in the league. Seahawks' top ranked offense is hitting

   on all cylinders. Look for Parcells to pop a gasket here today.

   Dallas falls to 0-8 SU & ATS away off a home win versus >

   .600 opposition.

   This is a scary pick but we’re taking the Texans in this game. The

   whole idea behind the play is our 'Ugly Pig' theory. Ugly Pigs by

   definition, are teams who started the season 0-4 SU and are

   underdogs in any game after that. The best Ugly Pigs are the ones

   with rest, like Green Bay above, and those who have yet to win a

   game, like Houston. The Texans are 6-1 ATS at home in their last

   seven division games. Let’s make it 7-1 against the overconfident

   Colts off their Monday Nighter with the Rams.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   4* BEST BET

   WASHINGTON over San Francisco by 21

   The Redskins are doing quite well for an alleged onedimensional

   team and their defense should completely stuff

   the Forty Niners here. The last time Frisco went to the east

   coast, they were toasted by Philadelphia 42-3. We don’t

   expect Washington to put up 42, but seeing that Trey by San

   Francisco’s name on the final scoreboard wouldn’t surprise

   us at all. The Forty Niners are 2-20 ATS in their last 22 games

   when failing to score 17 points. Don't let the number scare

   you, the Hogs are 20-1 SU & 14-7 ATS laying doubles against

   non-division foes. Look for the Skins to move to 10-1 ATS

   against the NFC West.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   3* bb..s florida..eagles over..packers

   4* bb,,miami florida..cardinals over..redskins

   5* bb,,redskins over...wyoming..seattle

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 19 2005 2:54pm
3. 0 likes

   Marc Lawrence NFL Plays:

   Monday, October 24th

   ATLANTA over NY Jets by 7

   We don’t know if there is another team in the league with a five

   game winning streak on the Monday Night football road. The

   Jets have one but it will be severely tested here. If it weren’t for

   Atlanta’s horrible 2-13 ATS mark on ABC night, we’d take a long

   hard look at the Falcons. Here’s why: The Jets are a running team

   that must run the ball to succeed. When the other team does it

   better, New York is 10-33 SU and 10-30-3 ATS. Atlanta runs the

   ball better than anyone in the league.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   OAKLAND over Buffalo by 3

   Here’s another team in the exact same situation as the Cowboys.

   Buffie just played the Dolphins and the Jets at home. Now, the

   Bills fly to the left coast to try on the Raiders for size, but they

   don’t have the baggage that Dallas has to carry. Buffie is 9-13 ATS

   on the road in that situation. Oakland isn’t exactly a covering

   machine, though. The Raiders are 6-19-1 ATS against AFC foes in

   their last 20 tries, including 0-11 ATS vs avenging teams. Still, we'll

   fade the Bills away from the range.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~

   Baltimore over CHICAGO by 4

   The Bears, for all their troubles over the last few years, have

   maintained a distinct advantage over AFC teams in Soldier Field.

   In the last 16 meetings, Chicago has covered 13 times. Brian Billick

   counters ate 6-1 ATS in NFC matchups. The bottom line, though,

   the Black Birds own the better offense and the better defense.

   That should be good enough for the win.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   ARIZONA over Tennessee by 3

   Tennessee has a lot of flaws and has underachieved in more than

   one phase of its history. Playing the role of the non-division dog,

   however, is not one of them. The Titans are 30-13-1 ATS in that

   role since 1994, including a sparkling 8-1 ATS against losing teams.

   We have some concerns about Steve McNair’s back but, even with

   Billy Volek, we might have to take a look at the Titans with points.

   Zona's numbers are better than their record. Until they learn to

   win games on the scoreboard we can't lay with them.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   NY GIANTS over Denver by 1

   If you judge the New York Giants by their three home games played

   this season, you would probably order their Super Bowl rings a

   month or two early. Three wins, all by 17 or more, fashioned by

   New York’s high-flying offense and opportunistic defense. This is

   no walk in the park for Denver. The Broncos put up 432 yards on

   the Patriots and everybody puts up yards on the G-Men (only

   Frisco's defense is worse).

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   Indianapolis over HOUSTON by 8

   This is a scary pick but we’re taking the Texans in this game. The

   whole idea behind the play is our 'Ugly Pig' theory. Ugly Pigs by

   definition, are teams who started the season 0-4 SU and are

   underdogs in any game after that. The best Ugly Pigs are the ones

   with rest, like Green Bay above, and those who have yet to win a

   game, like Houston. The Texans are 6-1 ATS at home in their last

   seven division games. Let’s make it 7-1 against the overconfident

   Colts off their Monday Nighter with the Rams.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~

   Pittsburgh over CINCINNATI by 3

   We really don’t want to make a call one way or the other until we

   find out the exact status of the Pittsburgh quarterbacks. We can

   tell you that the visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six games of the series

   and that Pittsburgh is 12-2 ATS before making a Monday night

   stop. Cincinnati’s numbers aren’t good in this situation but we

   have to point out that this is a different Bengal team. Our Trivia

   Teaser (see page 2) points out some powerful Bill Cowher stats.

   With the Steel City crew off a beat, and Cincy off a win, we can

   only look to Pittsburgh in this division dukeout.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   PHILADELPHIA over San Diego by 7

   The last time San Diego went across the continent, the Chargers

   beat the hell out of New England in Foxboro. This time it won’t

   be so easy. Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite and

   a perfect 6-0 ATS in that batch of games when the Eagles are off

   a bye week. Andy Reid will not let his even think about the

   possibility of another loss. With Diego in off the aforementioned

   victory over the Patriots, a Monday Night win over the Steelers

   and last week's rout at Oakland, a letdown is in order.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~

   MIAMI over Kansas City by 3

   Dick Vermiel made it a must for his team to perform flawlessly

   against Washington. His team was at an emotional peak for that

   game, a peak that cannot be reached again this quickly. Miami

   has been on the road for a while and is anxious to reestablish its

   position as a contender for playoff action. If the Dolphins want to

   play in January, they have to win games like this. They won’t get

   a flatter opponent than the Chiefs will be today. Defense rules.

   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

   CLEVELAND over Detroit by 4

   You might say that Detroit is playing a little better based on the

   results of the last few games. You might say that but you’d be

   wrong. The Lions were blown up in the stats by both Tampa Bay

   and Baltimore and have yet to crack the 300 yard mark in a game

   this season. In fact, the Lions are allowing a whopping 84 yards

   per game more than they are gaining. That’s not the kind of road

   team we want to dance with especially when that team has lost

   seven in a row away from home. Cleveland is a PERFECT 32-0 ATS

   in its only 32 wins in franchise history

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 19 2005 2:55pm
4. 0 likes

   Confidential Kick-Off!!

   The Gold Sheet!!

   America's Handicapping

   Leaders For 48 Seasons!

   CKO Vol. 44 October 20 - 24, 2005 No. 8

   11 *TULSA over Smu

   Late Score Forecast:

   *TULSA 44 - Smu 16

   Unified Tulsa has quickly risen to the top of the list of "go-with" teams inConference USA. Golden Hurricane have won 4 of their last 5 SU, and covered 5 of their last 6, for highly-regarded HC Steve Kragthorpe. Their

   shrewdly-designed attack is cranking out nearly 400 ypg with good balance between run (4.2 ypc) & pass (230 ypg). Resourceful soph QB Paul Smith makes plays with his legs as well as his arm. Sr. hybrid TE/WR Garrett Mills (6-2, 232) is a match-up nightmare. Versatile sr. RB Uril Parrish has 1789 total yards & 13 TDs in last 1+ seasons. And defense & special teams are contributing big plays, as speedy sr. return man Ashlan Davis, who had an NCAA record 5 kick return TDs, "housed" another one at Rice last week. Eager to lay this fair price with happenin' host against a poor-traveling SMU side that is only 6-15 vs. spread away from home since 2002.

   10 LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE over *Middle Tennessee State

   Late Score Forecast:

   LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 24 - *Middle Tennessee State 26

   Sure, Louisiana-Lafayette staggered a little bit after losing jr. QB JerryBabb, a 3-year starter, to a shoulder injury earlier this month. But Sun Belt scouts argue that Ragin' Cajun attack might be more dangerous without Babb now that highly-regarded redshirt frosh QB Michael Desormeaux is settling in at controls. Desormeaux (333 YR last 3 games) led ULL to 554 total yards in last week's 39-36 loss at Arkansas State, as Indians needed a FG as time expired to pull out victory. And true frosh Tyrell Fenroy an emerging force at TB. Middle Tennessee is averaging only 15 ppg & 267 ypg. Doubt that stodgy Blue Raider offense will be able to open much of a margin on Cajuns, who have become a dangerous foe under 4th-year HC Rickey Bustle, the well-regarded former Virginia Tech offensive coordinator. Host will be fortunate to escape with SU win over improving visitor, which has won & covered last 2 meetings.

   10 *IOWA over Michigan

   Late Score Forecast:

   *IOWA 31 - Michigan 17

   Iowa has covered 6 straight vs. the Wolverines, but this is the first time in-those six the Hawkeyes have been favored. They have won 2 of the 6 SU, but both victories have come after Kirk Ferentz arrived to work his disciplined, fundamental magic at Iowa City. Now, Ferentz has the best QB (Drew Tate) he's had with the Hawkeyes, who have established a school record of 22 straight home wins, and 27-4 vs. the spread their last 31 at Kinnick Stadium. Michigan, with its superior recruiting, is always a formidable underdog (11-7 the last 10+ seasons). But the Wolverine defense is slower TY, the offense has made mistakes, and soph QB Chad Henne was missing some of his 2004 pizzazz until last week's last-play TDP vs. Penn State. And it's "Blackout Day" for the rabid fans of the Hawkeyes, whose special teams are exceptional, and who lead the nation in fewest penalties committed.

   10 *TEXAS over Texas Tech

   Late Score Forecast:

   *TEXAS 47 - Texas Tech 20

   Texas a perfect 6-0 SU & vs. the spread so far. But this game is not just

   another conference contest to the Longhorns. Big XII South member Texas Tech is also 6-0. So if UT slips up vs. the guaranteed maniacal effort of the Red Raiders, the Longhorns will be trailing in the South, might fail to make the conference title game, and would thus have no shot of even making the BCS title game. Moreover, UT seeking decisive wins over every quality foe in order to stay ahead of Virginia Tech in the polls. With no Cedric Benson, Texas doesn't run the ball as it did LY. But Big XII scouts are now telling us the veteran, powerful Longhorn OL is not only the best in Texas history, but perhaps the best in Southwest Conference/Big XII history as well. The Longhorns successfully played "keepaway" (351 YR) from the prolific TT offense LY in Lubbock. Expect more of the same TY, thanks to Vince Young's improved passing, more experience & speed at WR, and an improved defense vs. Raider QB Hodges in just his second road start. Horns have eased up in every

   game TY except at Ohio State. Not this time.

   10 *N.Y. GIANTS over Denver

   Late Score Forecast:

   *N.Y. GIANTS 26 - Denver 13

   (Sunday, October, 23)

   Everything went swimmingly for Denver last week, as the Broncos were pumped for injured New England, then got a huge break when the Pats decided before the game to hold out star RB Corey Dillon due to an accumulation of injuries, giving him three weeks of rest (with N.E. getting its bye this week). Meanwhile, the Giants (Brandon Jacobs) lost a fumble at the goal line and still took Dallas into overtime. Denver's defense faces a much tougher challenge this week, as N.Y. better balanced than N.E., and WR Burress & TE Shockey figure to be nightmares vs. Bronco secondary in a bit of a transition. Tom Coughlin & Giants fans will make sure Jake Plummer doesn't get off to a fast start as he did last week.

   TOTALS:

   OVER (47) in San Diego-Philly Game-Chargers' pass defense made to order for T.O.; S.D. offense good enough to get points in catch-up mode...

   UNDER (40) in N.Y. Jets-Atlanta game (Monday night)...Jets resolute on defense and will try to control ball with Curtis Martin; Falcons' pass rush too much for Vinny.

   HONORABLE MENTION: INDIANA (+15.5) vs. Ohio State-Chance for IU to prove howmuch it is improved; can't rate game higher than 9 right now due to OSU's defense & pedigree...BALL STATE (+ at Ohio U.-Ball finally nearly full strength after suspension problems; Cardinals showing character in going 4-1 vs. spread last 5...COLORADO (-14) vs. Kansas-KU's OL is crippling its attack & putting defense in a bad way; Buffs have the offense to exploit extra opportunities...CENTRAL FLORIDA (-5) vs. Tulane-All the travel is wearing down Green Wave; UCF healthier, deeper, better balanced TY after LY's winless disaster...WASHINGTON (-11.5) vs. San Francisco (Sunday, Oct. 23)-First road start for rookie QB Alex Smith; Washington now has the offense to exploit his mistakes.

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 19 2005 2:55pm
5. 0 likes

   POINTWISE

   1-Tex,UCF 2-Aub 3-Wake,UTEP 4-Iowa 5-AzSt,Hou

   NFL

   2-Mia 3-Cle 4-Pgh,Oak 5-Phil

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 19 2005 2:56pm
6. 0 likes

   RED SHEET

   89-Tulsa,Tex 88-Iowa,Ore,UTEP 87-UCF,Okla,Aub,NMex

   NFL

   88-Wash 87-Mia,Den,Atl

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 19 2005 2:57pm
7. 0 likes

   SPORTS GURU

   UPDATE #2

   NOTE: IF THE LINE MOVES MORE THEN 2.5 POINTS OFF THE NUMBER THAT IS POSTED THEN IT IS A NO PLAY. THAT MEANS I WILL HAVE HEDGED MY BET.

   8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST 2 YEARS IN FOOTBALL (74%)

   6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)

   5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES

   4* VERY STRONG SELECTION

   3* STRONG SELECTION

   2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)

   1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER

   OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.

   --------------------------------------------------

   SUMMARY OF SATURDAY NCAA SELECTIONS:

   2* NORTH CAROLINA PICK'EM

   1* ARMY +9

   1* UNLV +12

   Opinions: TROY STATE/ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 45.5

   --------------------------------------------------

   VIRGINIA (4 - 2) at N CAROLINA (2 - 3)

   Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 12:00 PM

   Analysis

   Virginia (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) has a fine program under coach Al Grohe, and that was evident Saturday in a thrilling 26-21 victory over No. 4 Florida State. Virginia gave up a ton of yards to FSU, but they have a strong offense of their own behind junior QB Marques Hagans, who was 27-of-36 for 306 yards, 2 TDs, no picks against the Seminoles. I've never seen a quarterback make as many one-man plays as he made tonight," Bobby Bowden said of Hagans. But taken as a whole, their offense has been inconsistent as Hagans seems to turn in a solid performance every other week, so could he be due for a letdown this week. Virginia's defense has been weak the last three weeks, in a 45-33 loss at Maryland, giving up 570 yards! Then they lost 28-17 to BC, allowing 497 yards, including 196 rushing and FSU even had 472 yards. Meanwhile, North Carolina (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) has had two weeks to prepare....and they needed it, after a 69-14 loss at Louisville. This is a young, rebuilding UNC bunch, led by senior QB Matt Baker, and Baker had 6 TDs and 8 INTs. UNC is allowing 30 points and 253 passing yards each game, so Virginia should be able to score plenty -- though beware of a letdown spot for the high-flying Cavaliers. North Carolina is also 9-4 "over" the total its last 13 games, while Virginia is 2-0 "over" the total on the road this season.

   For this big-margin revenge game, UNC will have had an extra week to prepare, plus the advantage of having been home and taking more notes while watching Virginia’s nationally televised, late-night Saturday effort against Florida State. Virginia smoked UNC 56-24 a year ago. The 592 yards Virginia piled up during the 56-24 victory was the most ever in the history of this series and Virginia has dominated the Tar Heels lately, taking four of the last five. North Carolina is coming off a bye and it had plenty to work on after a 69-14 loss at Louisville two weeks ago but lets be honest, Louisville can score 69 against anyone on a given day and they would probably score 70 against Virginia’s poor defense.

   The Louisville game notwithstanding, North Carolina is playing better football than Virginia. Granted just last week Virginia played its best game of the year but I'm still having flashbacks about how Boston College pushed the Cavaliers all over the field two weeks ago. Carolina hasn’t covered in seven tries against UVA, but the Heels are 9-1 ATS in their last ten ACC games and appear poised to stop that seven-game pointspread losing streak. Moreover, NC Coach John Bunting generally prepares his team well after a bye week. After decisive road losses against Texas in 2001 and Utah in 2004, the Tar Heels returned home to capture two of the biggest victories in the history of the program, against Florida State and Miami (FL), respectively.

   Projected Score: Virginia 24, No Carolina 34

   PLAY 2* UNITS ON NORTH CAROLINA PICK'EM

   ARMY (0 - 6) at AKRON (3 - 3)

   Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 6:00 PM

   Analysis

   WOW yet again Bobby Ross isn't getting a lot of respect with this betting line. Winless Army (eleven straight losses) is still struggling after last weeks 38-17 loss to TCU. The Frogs couldn't seem to shake Army (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS), which responded with a 66-yard march late in the game, highlighted by a 37-yard completion from QB Zac Dahman to Jeremy Trimble on fourth-and-4. That set up RB Carlton Jones' 3-yard touchdown run, cutting the TCU lead to seven with 8:10 left. Army is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS on the road where the Cadets are getting beat by a 41-12 average. Akron (3-3 SU/ATS) fell 51-23 to Miami of Ohio Saturday. Akron turned over the ball six times four on fumbles and two on interceptions and the Zips were penalized 10 times for 108 yards. QB Luke Getsy was 19-of-35 for 169 yards. The Cadets are being outscored 32-13 and the stagnant offense is taking time to develop.

   This is really a tricky spot for the now overvalued home Zips, as they have a much-anticipated showdown against Bowling Green on deck. Akron knows exactly what his task is here – get the win, keep everyone healthy, and then move on, with that huge home showdown next week. That by itself helps to keep this one close, since both teams lack big play ability on offense and will be content to work the clock with their power ground game. We are also getting some significant line value due to Army’s loss at T.C.U. on Saturday night, which as stated above was misleading since they only trailed 24-17 midway through the fourth quarter. Look for Carlton Jones and Scott Wesley to find plenty of room on the ground vs. this defense, which creates a chance to control the football and the game flow. This is a very generous number so take the points.

   Projected Score: Akron 21, Army 24

   PLAY 1* UNIT ON ARMY +9

   UTAH (3 - 4) at UNLV (2 - 5)

   Week 8 Saturday, 10/22/2005 7:00 PM

   Analysis

   The Rebels played their game for a half at Air Force last week. They were within 7 at the intermission, but couldn't stay away from costly mistakes over the final two quarters. UNLV (2-5 SU/ATS) has only one way to win games right now. Play close to the vest on offense and let the defense stuff the opponent. QB Jarrod Jackson does not understand this spread-option offense and is struggling to say the least. So, HC Mike Sanford has simplified the attack, turning it basically into a "3-yards and a cloud of dust" approach. However, UNLV's defense is still holding opponents to an amazing 2.9 yards per carry! Rebel coach Mike Sanford was the offensive coordinator of the Utes in their two dream seasons of 2003 and 2004. He famously rushed out of a Utah practice for the Fiesta Bowl to take the UNLV job. Obviously he is intimately familiar with the Utes and their entire program. He knows the personnel, the schemes, the talent, the strengths and weaknesses. He also has a couple of staffers with him from Utah. Meanwhile, Utah (3-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) is in a definite rebuilding mode, and the offense has struggled away from Salt Lake (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS on the road). Utah has basically fallen off the map in the Mountain West, losing four of five after last week's embarrassing loss to San Diego State. Did you know that the Utes have not covered a game this season? They've lost all 3 games on the road, running for less than 4 yards per carry and scoring a grand total of just 54 points which equates to a measly 18 PPG.

   When this line came out I balked at it, thought it was in error and patiently waited for some sort of adjustment. Now three days after the lines opened it is still the same. Perhaps both the lines maker and the betting public are thinking of Utah (last years version). The Utes average game last year was a 45-20 win, this year 24-24 tie. Last year, Utah was favored by 24 over UNLV. That game was at Utah, but if you take away 3 for home field and give that 3 to UNLV we’re looking at about 18 or so and considering that UNLV is just about as bad as they were this year, this line suggests that Utah is only 5 points worse than they were this same weekend last year. FYI they are a lot worse! With line value, UNLV coaches' familiarity with the opponent, and a struggling Ute team on the road we have not other choice but to back this home dog. Take the generous points.

   Projected Score: Utah 17, UNLV 14

   PLAY 1* UNIT ON UNLV +12

   FLA INTERNATIONAL (1 - 4) at TROY ST (2 - 4)

   Week 8 Thursday, 10/20/2005 7:30 PM

   Analysis

   A Sun Belt battle featuring two teams that have a long ways to go. Florida International (1-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) beat Florida A&M 23-6, but other than that nothing has gone right. In fairness, they opened the season with big losses to Kansas State, Texas Tech and Arkansas State all on the road! Junior QB Josh Padrick (5 TDs, 7 INTs) is still learning, while RB Ben West anchors the ground attack, but the defense is weak allowing 35 points per game. They were a home favorite over North Texas Saturday, but lost 13-10. The Golden Panthers (0-2 Sun Belt) drove the field late in the fourth quarter, driving 62 yards on eight plays. But on a fourth-and-one from the North Texas 24-yard line, FIU head coach Don Strock called on placekicker Adam Moss to attempt a tying 41-yard field goal. The kick sailed wide left. The drive ended and so did the game. This will be the Trojans’ (2-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) first home game in more than a month as they has played four straight road games. They have no resemblance of any running game whatsoever or much offense of any kind (15 points, 158 pass yards per game). Troy did have a huge 13-10 upset of North Texas, which ended the Mean Green's 26-game Sun Belt Conference winning streak, but they regressed last week in a 27-3 loss at UL-Monroe. They certainly looked tired last week against Louisiana-Monroe, as they committed four turnovers and were penalized 12 times. Sophomore Kenny Cattouse leads this young, conservative offense. True freshman QB Julius Foster completed 15 of 24 passes for 174 yards in his collegiate debut. Troy beat FIU 21-10 in 2003 in the only meeting between the schools and we'd expect a similar result here this season. Don't look for much offense in this (yawn) one.

   Forecast: FLA International 14, Troy State 17

   OPINION SELECTION ON TROY STATE/ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNDER 45.5

   

   posted by phantom

   Oct. 20 2005 3:37pm
8. 0 likes

   Just wondering if you were going to post the trends this week like you have been doing...

   

   posted by wallyk

   Oct. 21 2005 10:20am