INFO FOR 10/15 WEEKEND
Sunday NFL Week 6 - 10/16
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A nice winner on the Steelers last night! These are my early plays for week six. I may add one more later in the week....
NFL
3 STAR: NY Giants (+3.5) OVER DALLAS
Line from BetJamacia on 10/11/05
Risking $330 to win $300
The Cowboys are coming off of their most impressive win of the season as they destroyed the Eagles 33-10 holding them to only 129 total yards, but this has been a very inconsistent team this season and I look for the Giants to cover this line. The Cowboys have a history of coming up short against the spread in the week following a dominating performance as they are only 4-14 against the spread after a win in which they had 34 minutes or more time of possession and gained 24 or more first downs since 1992. Also, teams with a winning record that are off of an upset win as a home underdog are only 26-57 against the spread the following week when playing another team with a winning record. The Giants have been putting up some big numbers on the scoreboard leading the NFL in scoring at 34 points a game, and I see Eli Manning and company doing some damage here against what I feel is still a suspect Dallas secondary. Take the points!
3 STAR: SEATTLE (-9.5) OVER Houston
Line from BetJamacia on 10/11/05
Risking $330 to win $300
The Texans have to be the worst team in the league right now. After watching the Titans destroy them at home last week, I don't see how the Seahawks do not win this game by double figures. This is a total mismatch. Seattle is the number one offense in the league and Houston is dead last in the league in offense. Seattle also leads the league in time of possession while once again Houston is dead last in the league in time of possession. The Seahawks are 13-4 against the spread against poor ball control teams that average 28 or less possession minutes per game since 1992. I look for Shawn Alexander to have a huge night against a Texans defense that will spend a lot of time on the field. Lay the points!
2005/2006 NFL RECORD
5 STAR RECORD 3-2 (+4.50 UNITS)
3 STAR RECORD 6-5 (+1.20 UNITS)
2 STAR RECORD 1-0 (+2.00 UNITS)
1 STAR RECORD 2-2 (-0.20 UNITS)
OVERALL RECORD 12-9 (+7.50 UNITS)
A $100 player would be up $750
posted by phantom
9 replies
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0 likes
Saturday, October 15th
(TC) South Florida at Pittsburgh, 2:00 EST
South Florida - 7-0 ATS after scoring 14 points or less
Pittsburgh - 7-22 ATS off an Over
Alabama at Mississippi, 12:00 EST CBS
Alabama - 14-28 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points
Mississippi - 9-2 Under as an underdog
(TC) Georgia Tech at Duke, 3:30 EST ESPNU
Georgia Tech - 6-16 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
Duke - 5-1 ATS after scoring 9 points or less
Wake Forest at Boston College, 12:00 EST
Wake Forest - 1-8 ATS off 3+ conference games
Boston College - 5-1 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points
(TC) Colorado at Texas, 3:30 EST ABC
Colorado - 18-6 Over off a win by 21+ points
Texas - 10-3 ATS off an Over
(TC) Louisville at West Virginia, 3:30 EST ABC
Louisville - 12-4 ATS as a favorite
West Virginia - 6-1 Under in October
Wisconsin at Minnesota, 12:00 EST
Wisconsin - 9-2 ATS off a road game
Minnesota - 5-1 Over off a conference win
Rutgers at Syracuse, 12:00 EST
Rutgers - 5-1 Over off an ATS loss
Syracuse - 12-3 ATS in home games
Indiana at Iowa, 12:00 EST
Indiana - 1-6 ATS off an Under
Iowa - 12-1 ATS as a home favorite
Michigan State at Ohio State, 12:00 EST
Michigan State - 2-10 ATS away off a home conference loss
Ohio State - 9-3 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
(TC) Georgia at Vanderbilt, 7:15 EST ESPN2
Georgia - 15-5 ATS away off an Under
Vanderbilt - 7-18 ATS at home in October
Ohio U at Central Michigan, 1:00 EST
Ohio U - 1-8 ATS in road games
Central Michigan - 5-1 Under this season
Northwestern at Purdue, 1:00 EST ESPN2
Northwestern - 1-8 ATS off a home win
Purdue - 8-1 Under as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points
Miami FL at Temple, 1:00 EST
Miami FL - 12-3 Under off BB wins
Temple - 10-22 ATS after scoring 9 points or less
Kent State at Navy, 1:30 EST
Kent State - 1-5 ATS off a conference loss by 7 points or less
Navy - 22-5 ATS off a home win
Bowling Green at Buffalo U, 1:30 EST
Bowling Green - 18-7 ATS off a win by 21+ points
Buffalo - 5-1 Under as an underdog
Akron at Miami OH, 2:00 EST
Akron - 1-5 ATS off a road win
Miami OH - 7-0 ATS at home off a conference game
Toledo at Ball State, 3:00 EST
Toledo - 8-1 ATS off a win by 21+ points
Ball State - 1-9 ATS off a combined score of 70+ points
(TC) Colorado State at BYU, 10:00 EST
Colorado State - 23-10 ATS off 3+ wins
BYU - 1-18 ATS off BB road games
(TC) UNLV at Air Force, 12:00 EST
UNLV - 7-17 ATS off an Under
Air Force - 12-4 Under off BB ATS losses
East Carolina at SMU, 3:00 EST
East Carolina - 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
SMU - 1-7 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
New Mexico at Wyoming, 3:00 EST
New Mexico - 6-1 ATS off a SU loss as a home favorite
Wyoming - 2-10 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Penn State at Michigan, 3:30 EST
Penn State - 2-13 ATS off a home game
Michigan - 8-2 Over off an ATS loss
Oklahoma State at Texas A&M, 3:30 EST
Oklahoma State - 6-1 ATS after allowing 525+ total yards
Texas A&M - 2-10 ATS off BB ATS losses
(TC) Oklahoma at Kansas, 7:00 EST TBS
Oklahoma - 8-1 Under off a conference loss
Kansas - 21-44 ATS off a conference loss
(TC) Iowa State at Missouri, 2:00 EST
Iowa State - 1-9 ATS off BB losses
Missouri - 10-3 ATS off BB games with a combined score of 60+ points
(TC) Kansas State at Texas Tech, 12:00 EST ABC
Kansas State - 1-5 ATS after allowing 9 points or less
Texas Tech - 34-16 ATS as a home favorite
Washington at Oregon, 3:30 EST
Washington - 5-17 ATS off a road conference loss
Oregon - 9-1 ATS off a conference win
Florida at LSU, 3:30 EST CBS
Florida - 5-1 Under this season
LSU - 5-19 ATS at home off 3+ conference games
USC at Notre Dame, 3:30 EST NBC
USC - 10-2 ATS off a home win by 17+ points
Notre Dame - 8-20 ATS after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois, 4:00 EST
Eastern Michigan - 5-1 Under this season
Northern Illinois - 22-9 ATS in October
Connecticut at Cincinnati, 4:00 EST
Connecticut - 15-1 ATS after forcing 3+ turnovers
Cincinnati - 19-6 Under on artificial turf
(TC) Nebraska at Baylor, 7:00 EST
Nebraska - 8-1 ATS off a straight up loss
Baylor - 7-1 Under vs. conference opponents
UAB at Marshall, 5:00 EST
UAB - 8-2 ATS in October
Marshall - 7-17 ATS off a non-conference game
UCLA at Washington State, 6:30 EST FSN
UCLA - 12-4 ATS last 16 lined games
Washington State - 0-7 ATS in home games
(TC) Oregon State at California, 3:30 EST ABC
Oregon State - 7-0 ATS off BB conference games
California - 23-40 ATS as a favorite
Central Florida at Southern Miss, 7:00 EST
Central Florida - 3-11 ATS in road games
Southern Miss - 6-0 ATS off a loss by 17+ points
Army at TCU, 7:00 EST
Army - 2-11 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
TCU - 5-1 ATS this season
Stanford at Arizona, 7:00 EST
Stanford - 8-2 Under as a road underdog
Arizona - 14-28 ATS as a home favorite
Auburn at Arkansas, 7:00 EST
Auburn - 9-2 Over off BB wins by 21+ points
Arkansas - 8-2 ATS off a non-conference game
San Diego State at Utah, 7:00 EST
San Diego State - 15-5 ATS away off a road loss
Utah - 0-6 ATS this season
(TC) Memphis at Houston, 5:00 EST
Memphis - 6-1 Over as an underdog
Houston - 24-41 ATS off BB conference games
Florida State at Virginia, 7:45 EST ESPN
Florida State - 0-7 ATS off BB Overs
Virginia - 6-1 Under off an Over
San Jose State at Boise State, 8:00 EST
San Jose State - 3-10 ATS as a road underdog
Boise State - 29-11 ATS in home games
(TC) Tulsa at Rice, 4:00 EST
Tulsa - 1-6 ATS off ATS wins in 4 of their last 5 games
Rice - 20-6 ATS as a home underdog
Utah State at Fresno State, 10:00 EST
Utah State - 4-15 ATS away off a win
Fresno State - 6-0 ATS off a road win
(TC) Louisiana Tech at Nevada, 4:00 EST
Louisiana Tech - 1-8 ATS off a conference win
Nevada - 5-1 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
New Mexico Stte at Hawaii, 11:59 EST
New Mexico State - 3-12 ATS off a home loss
Hawaii - 7-0 Over in home games
Added Games:
Troy State at Louisiana Monroe, 3:30 EST ESPNU
Troy State - 0-6 ATS away off an ATS win
LA Monroe - 8-1 ATS off a road loss
Middle Tennessee State at Florida Atlantic, 4:00 EST
Mid Tenn State -5-0 Under this season
Florida Atlantic - 1-7 ATS on grass fields
North Texas at Florida International, 6:00 EST
North Texas - 8-1 ATS vs. conference opponents
Florida International - First lined game this year
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2005 3:11pm -
0 likes
Phil Steele - Power Sweeps
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4* Texas A&M
3* LSU
3* UL Monroe
2* UAB
2* Baylor
2* Cent. Flor.
Underdog: Arkansas
posted by phantom
Oct. 11 2005 7:33pm -
0 likes
College Football
Saturday, October 15, 2005
Big East Newcomer
South Florida (+2½) over @Pitt
Dave Wannstedt certainly isn’t lighting the world on fire at Pitt so far. The Panthers poor start has led to a youth movement for the Panthers, as 8 true freshmen played in the win over Cincinnati on Saturday. It was the first 1-A win of the year for the Panthers, with losses against flawed outfits Ohio U and Rutgers really sticking out like sore thumbs. The program supposedly has good talent, but it has only shown against outmanned squads like Youngstown State and Cincy.
Jim Leavitt has done a good job over the years with this South Florida program, stocking it with homegrown talent. Importantly, Leavitt really pointed to this year, redshirting a number of potential contributors last season (and not just freshmen) to make a big splash in Big East play. South Florida had what was in retrospect an impressive close 23-13 loss at Penn State to open the season. Other key games include their 38-7 stunner over high-flying Louisville, who is just clobbering anyone else, and a dreadful 27-7 loss at Miami left USF with a 3-2 mark. QB Pat Julmiste played poorly against Miami’s great D. He went 8-25 for only 47 yards and three INT’s. Backup Courtney Denson wasn’t any better, and QB isn’t a strength of this team. But they have a good running game and good athletes all over the field. A hidden good game that USF played was a dominating win over Central Florida. It didn’t look important at the time but UCF has won 3 games since then and George O’Leary’s charges are clearly improved.
Situation is good for USF as they are focused from the Miami loss and have had a week off to stew over that loss and the beating that Pitt delivered to them in Tampa last year. South Florida has the talent to be right in this ballgame and benefit from a solid coaching edge as well. South Florida by 4.
Dixie Drubbing
Alabama (-12½) over @Mississippi
Ole’ Miss has clearly struggled under Coach Ed Orgeron. The Rebels are 2-3 and their wins were against Memphis (lost their starting QB for the season on the opening drive then tossed an INT in the red zone in the closing seconds to lose) and
The Citadel, a 1-AA team who trailed by only 10-7 in the third quarter. Ole’ Miss was held to –16 yards rushing in the first half (which includes sack yardage and muffed snaps in college) but The Citadel wore down late and Mico McSwain of Ole’ Miss rushed for 105 yards on 20 carries. McSwain will find the going harder against Bama’s hard hitting D.
Orgeron is a supreme motivator and has a defensive background. But Michael Spurlock is not a quarterback to be feared and against modest 1-A opposition Mississippi has been dented defensively for 388 yards per game and are scoring only 14 points per game vs. 1-A types. Orgeron’s motivation skills won’t mean that much once the Rebels start getting beaten up by an Alabama squad pummeling opponents by over 150 yards per game while allowing only 12 points per game. Bama is very strong on both sides of the line.
Bama suffered a highly publicized injury loss at wide receiver but they have speed and playmakers all over the field. They had a week off to absorb the accolades of the Florida win and Shula should have them ready for business here. Bama should physically dominate this matchup and win going away. Alabama by 19.
Developing Team
@BYU (+1) over Colorado State
BYU earned a solid win at a tough venue with their win at Albuquerque against New Mexico. The Cougars had scoring drives of 80. 93, and 80 yards and are beginning to really develop the new spread offense of offensive coordinator Robert Anae (first year from the Texas Tech staff) that they struggled with at the start of the campaign. The two leading tacklers were linebackers Walkenhorst and Jensen, and they were the top two tacklers in their return to the lineup. Veteran leadership played a part in eliminating some of the defensive mistakes that occurred in losses to SD State and TCU.
Colorado State was fortunate to hold off a Utah team that is winless on the road. The Rams outscored the Utes 18-3 in the 4th quarter and then kept Utah out of the end zone with a dramatic goal line stand to end a very emotional game with a win. We know that teams often underachieve following a comeback win and that factors in here. Not only may the Rams let down from that emotional win, but to score only 3 points through 3 quarters is certainly a warning sign.
The Cougars have underachieved in Provo in recent years, but don’t be surprised if they start to perform well on what has been a good home field historically. Bronco Mendenhall is a good defensive coach and the offensive issues that have played the Y in the past few years appear to be lessening. Big statement win. BYU by 6.
Welcome Back
Penn State (+3½) over @Michigan
Count me among the geniuses that thought that Penn State keeping Joe Paterno around was foolishness. At least an exit strategy or succession plan was called for, wasn’t it? After all, with the Lions having had a losing record in 4 of the previous 5 seasons including 3-9 and 4-7 the previous two campaigns, this old man in winter needed to be ushered out. Clearly I was wrong,
and changing our minds about PSU has led to late phone winners each of the past two weeks on the Nittany Lions.
With Penn State notching emotional wins each of the last three weeks and taking back to the road, I’m sure there’s plenty of technical data to be found that suggests playing against the Nittany Lions here. But that ferocious defense can slow down anybody. Michigan’s defense is no prize, and they lost 2 starters in the defensive backfield on Saturday. But surprisingly, more of Michigan’s problems initiate on offense. Minnesota’s D had a lot of problems against Purdue and Penn State the previous two weeks but they kept Chad Henne in check (under 50% passing, no TD pass for the first time in 18 games). The Wolverines offense failed miserably at crunch time, succeeding on only 3 of 14 first down conversions. Michigan was outgained by a remarkable 403-249.
There is a coach in this game who doesn’t look like he is still at the top of his game, but it isn’t Paterno, it is Lloyd Carr. Based on the magnitude of their celebration on Saturday night, it would be difficult if Penn State drew someone like Illinois this week. But you don’t let down when going to the Big House. Look for another big performance from Paterno’s bunch. Penn State by 3.
Bounce Back
Oklahoma (-5½) over @Kansas
Oklahoma was outplayed in all facets of the game at Texas on Saturday, and they were also outcoached. With less than a minute to go in the first half OU had the ball on their own 39-yard line with a 3rd and 11 upcoming. Their offense had been doing nothing but they were still in the game, down 17-6. Texas had no timeouts. Instead of running the ball and leaving Texas with no time to do any damage, the Sooners threw an incompletion, stopping the clock and setting up a punt. Not running the ball left enough time for one more Texas possession before the break. A Vince Young to Billy Patten 64 yard TD bomb right before halftime effectively put the game out of reach. Stoops has had a lot of success by being aggressive, but his strategy may need to change based on the lack of success this team is having.
But it may be time to get aggressive again. OU will be very focused this week after taking their lumps against Texas and they will be primed for a solid performance against a decent Kansas team. Kansas scored only 3 points against Kansas State after making a late week quarterback switch, losing 12-3. OU blasted that same Kansas State team the previous week 43-21. Despite Oklahoma’s problems against elite competition, that is not what they are facing today. Kansas’ Mark Mangino (a former OU assistant) is a decent coach and they scared the life out of Texas Tech and Texas here in Lawrence last year. But there is a big talent difference between these two programs, as seen by the line last year being OU by 28 at home. Too much of an adjustment, and we’ll look for the Sooners to notch a nice win. Oklahoma by 11.
No More Bullets to Dodge
@Washington State (+6½) over UCLA
UCLA has dodged a couple of major bullets the past couple of weeks. Two weeks back the Bruins trailed dreadful Washington 17-7 entering the 4th quarter of their home game against the Huskies. UCLA rallied for the win. Last week the Bruins gave up a staggering 545 total yards including 330 rushing yards to Cal (on 8.0 yards per rushing attempt) yet managed to pull out an unlikely victory thanks to a huge day by Maurice Drew, who had an 80 yard punt return for a TD, another punt return to set up a 4 yard TD drive, and some other big plays. Obviously UCLA has some defensive liabilities and you can’t always count on special teams play to overcome those.
Washington State isn’t playing well, blowing a 14-point lead at Oregon State and then losing to lousy Stanford. But Washington State does have some talent. Jerome Harrison ran for over 200 yards on Saturday and the Bruins have clearly shown that they have a soft run defense. UCLA is fat and happy and has already shown that they are capable of coming out flat, and after consecutive emotional wins this is definitely a potential flat spot for the Bruins. Pullman is a tough place to visit and Washington State will be playing with great desperation today, as they have bowl aspirations and their 3-2 record has those hopes a little shaky. WSU by 1.
Dave Fobare’s College Tech Play of the Week
KO’s Note: Again this season Dave will be providing Max readers with a college play of the week and an NFL play of the week each week in the Max. Dave’s plays will be clearly labeled. All other games are written up by Kevin O’Neill.
@Miami OH (-13) over Akron
Usually, playing big favorites that aren't outrushing or outpassing their opponents is not a good way to grow the bankroll. After 5 games the Redskins are rushing for just 3.8 ypr and giving up 4.3 ypr. Since the NCAA includes sacks in a team's rushing totals, the offensive number is clouded somewhat by the problems the Miami O-line has had protecting star QB Josh Betts. The Redskins' leading ball carrier Brandon Murphy actually has a respectable 576 yards on 120 carries (4.8 ypr). This is a substantial margin over Zips leading rusher Brent Biggs, who is running for 3.8 ypr. Biggs was injured late in last week's game against Buffalo, and as of this writing his status for Mia-OH is not known.
Miami's pass protection problems have made it difficult for Betts to wait in the pocket for patterns to develop down the field, and as a result Miami's yards/catch and overall yards/attempt numbers are down so far from the lofty standards set in 2004.
The Zips slept for 3 quarters last week at Buffalo before finally waking up and putting up 13 points in the 4th stanza in a come-from-behind win, 13-7. That sets up Buffalo in a 55-100 ATS angle featuring plays against teams off 2nd half comeback wins.
But the best tech material on this game springs from Akron's game two weeks ago. At home and favored by 10.5 against Central Michigan, Akron played well in the first half en route to a 17-7 halftime lead. They collapsed in the second half as the Chips scored 24 unanswered points to win going away 31-17. By successfully atoning for that loss with their win over Buffalo the Zips have set themselves up for another fall, according to the terms of an 32-8 ATS angle that has a cover margin of more than 10 points per game.
Skins Sludge
Redskins (+6) over @Chiefs
Washington has specialized in ugly, low scoring games this season. The final margins of their games have been 2,1,3, and 2. Their offense has been improving on a weekly basis and while the decision to elevate Mark Brunell to starter was a shaky one, the veteran is playing significantly better than he was last year. Redskins D is excellent, although the non-use of Lavar Arrington is certainly a strange situation. Remarkably, the Redskins success has been in spite of losing the turnover battle in every game they’ve played thus far.
Chiefs were given 6 days off by Vermeil in their off week, but we prefer ugly dogs off their bye weeks, not substantial favorites allowing 368 yards per game. We’ll take nearly a TD with the underdog that allows only 282 yards per game and plays in games that go down to the wire on a weekly basis. Redskins by 1.
Done With Mirrors
Patriots (+3) over @Broncos
Patriots are terribly beat up on defense, but find ways to piece together wins. They showed a lot of guts in beating the Falcons in Atlanta thanks to their offense bailing out the defense. But they may be able to do some work against an overrated Broncos offense that had only 11 first downs and 257 yards in their win over the Redskins.
Don’t mind taking points against a phony winner from the week before, and the Broncos were outgained by 190 yards in their win over the Redskins on Sunday. Broncos have a reputation as a good offensive team despite gaining only 4.9 yards per play while giving up 5.1.
The Patriots certainly have the offense, and the Broncos defense is not overwhelming. Patriots have already won at tough venues Pittsburgh and Atlanta and should be non-plussed by the Mile High environment, as the Broncos have underachieved in the new venue. Patriots by 3. Despite misgivings over playing a two TD favorite that has not shown a superior stat edge in this matchup, the emotional double whammy the Zips are under is enough of an edge to make MIAMI-OH -14 the College Tech Play of the Week.
NFL
Sunday, October 16, 2005
Maximum Effort
Saints (+) over Falcons
@San Antonio
The Saints couldn’t have played any worse at Green Bay, and New Orleans had 5 turnovers, 13 penalties, dreadful special teams, and pretty much gave up. And it is certainly damaging in the long run to lose Deuce McAllister to a torn ACL. But if anything has been true during the Jim Haslett era, it is to not expect last week’s effort to be a harbinger of things to come.
While not a home site, the Saints are camped out in San Antonio. The players are living there for now. They train there, and are there all week. They enjoyed a substantial home field advantage in their win over the Bills, which was the only game in San Antonio thus far. Backing a home team off a horrid road performance is never a bad idea in the NFL.
Falcons are clearly the better team, but they’ve got some problems of their own right now. Mike Vick’s health has always been very touchy in Atlanta. Two years ago he didn’t want to play through an injury, thinking of his career rather than the short term. But when the Falcons’ brass made the same decision in having him on the inactive list against New England, Vick was miffed. The Falcons also had a big loss when middle linebacker Ed Hartwell went down for the season. Harwell is a key performer for the Falcons and he’ll be missed.
Saints probably won’t be a playoff contender, but they made a big run last season through adversity and can’t be counted out. At 2-3, they are in another must win situation off a horrific performance. This is the kind of situation that has seen them play well in recent years and has rewarded contrarian backers. Saints by 1.
Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
@Baltimore (-5) over Cleveland
The Ravens suffered an emotional meltdown of near-historic proportion last week in a 35-17 loss at Detroit. Baltimore was flagged for 21 penalties (and 2 ejections), just one shy of the all time NFL record. The 147 yards assessed turned a very competitive game into a blowout win for the Lions. And had the game remained competitive for the full 60 minutes Baltimore probably would have broken the record with room to spare. By the time the Lions went up 35-17 midway thru the 4th quarter the Ravens had already suffered all of their 21 penalties.
Why did the Ravens, and in particular their star-studded defense, lose their composure? Baltimore came to Ford Field expecting the Lions to lie down and roll over for them like good little pussycats. After 2 weeks of turmoil in Detroit after a loss to Tampa the Lions were in a feisty mood and looking to atone for their failures thus far. The longer the game went without Baltimore being able to impose their will the more frustrated they became.
Fuel was added to the fire thanks to a strong mutual dislike between 2nd year Lions RB Kevin Jones and Ravens star LB Ray Lewis. The feud started last year in an exhibition game. On Jones' first carry Lewis welcomed the rookie ball carrier to the NFL with a regular season tackle and followed it up by ripping Jones' helmet off. Jones took offense and on Sunday had his chance for revenge. The rest of the Ravens' D got into the act and a lot of heavy hits were doled out on both sides whenever Jones carried the ball. Jones had to leave the game with a "light" concussion after five carries in a span of seven snaps inside the Baltimore 10 yard line late in the third quarter.
That is a rather long summary of last weeks' Ravens-Lions game but there is a payoff. Rarely do the emotional motivations behind tech angles fit a particular game as well as this week's game for Baltimore. At 1-3 SU a Ravens team used to winning seasons faces a make-or-break game this week. Game 5 teams with their backs against the wall are very dangerous as highlighted in a 35-7 ATS angle from the database that is already 3-0 ATS this season with wins last weekend on Green Bay, Buffalo and the Jets. And that is why Baltimore -5 is the NFL Tech Play of the Week.
SELECTIONS: October 13-17, 2005
In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the entirety of either college or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems with a grain of salt, but they can prove to be valuable tools in a handicapper’s arsenal. Sometimes they last for a while. Sometimes they turn around. Always ask yourself, “does this make sense?â€Â
posted by goat-
Oct. 12 2005 10:48am -
0 likes
College Football
Saturday, October 15, 2005
Big East Newcomer
South Florida (+2½) over @Pitt
Dave Wannstedt certainly isn’t lighting the world on fire at Pitt so far. The Panthers poor start has led to a youth movement for the Panthers, as 8 true freshmen played in the win over Cincinnati on Saturday. It was the first 1-A win of the year for the Panthers, with losses against flawed outfits Ohio U and Rutgers really sticking out like sore thumbs. The program supposedly has good talent, but it has only shown against outmanned squads like Youngstown State and Cincy.
Jim Leavitt has done a good job over the years with this South Florida program, stocking it with homegrown talent. Importantly, Leavitt really pointed to this year, redshirting a number of potential contributors last season (and not just freshmen) to make a big splash in Big East play. South Florida had what was in retrospect an impressive close 23-13 loss at Penn State to open the season. Other key games include their 38-7 stunner over high-flying Louisville, who is just clobbering anyone else, and a dreadful 27-7 loss at Miami left USF with a 3-2 mark. QB Pat Julmiste played poorly against Miami’s great D. He went 8-25 for only 47 yards and three INT’s. Backup Courtney Denson wasn’t any better, and QB isn’t a strength of this team. But they have a good running game and good athletes all over the field. A hidden good game that USF played was a dominating win over Central Florida. It didn’t look important at the time but UCF has won 3 games since then and George O’Leary’s charges are clearly improved.
Situation is good for USF as they are focused from the Miami loss and have had a week off to stew over that loss and the beating that Pitt delivered to them in Tampa last year. South Florida has the talent to be right in this ballgame and benefit from a solid coaching edge as well. South Florida by 4.
Dixie Drubbing
Alabama (-12½) over @Mississippi
Ole’ Miss has clearly struggled under Coach Ed Orgeron. The Rebels are 2-3 and their wins were against Memphis (lost their starting QB for the season on the opening drive then tossed an INT in the red zone in the closing seconds to lose) and
The Citadel, a 1-AA team who trailed by only 10-7 in the third quarter. Ole’ Miss was held to –16 yards rushing in the first half (which includes sack yardage and muffed snaps in college) but The Citadel wore down late and Mico McSwain of Ole’ Miss rushed for 105 yards on 20 carries. McSwain will find the going harder against Bama’s hard hitting D.
Orgeron is a supreme motivator and has a defensive background. But Michael Spurlock is not a quarterback to be feared and against modest 1-A opposition Mississippi has been dented defensively for 388 yards per game and are scoring only 14 points per game vs. 1-A types. Orgeron’s motivation skills won’t mean that much once the Rebels start getting beaten up by an Alabama squad pummeling opponents by over 150 yards per game while allowing only 12 points per game. Bama is very strong on both sides of the line.
Bama suffered a highly publicized injury loss at wide receiver but they have speed and playmakers all over the field. They had a week off to absorb the accolades of the Florida win and Shula should have them ready for business here. Bama should physically dominate this matchup and win going away. Alabama by 19.
Developing Team
@BYU (+1) over Colorado State
BYU earned a solid win at a tough venue with their win at Albuquerque against New Mexico. The Cougars had scoring drives of 80. 93, and 80 yards and are beginning to really develop the new spread offense of offensive coordinator Robert Anae (first year from the Texas Tech staff) that they struggled with at the start of the campaign. The two leading tacklers were linebackers Walkenhorst and Jensen, and they were the top two tacklers in their return to the lineup. Veteran leadership played a part in eliminating some of the defensive mistakes that occurred in losses to SD State and TCU.
Colorado State was fortunate to hold off a Utah team that is winless on the road. The Rams outscored the Utes 18-3 in the 4th quarter and then kept Utah out of the end zone with a dramatic goal line stand to end a very emotional game with a win. We know that teams often underachieve following a comeback win and that factors in here. Not only may the Rams let down from that emotional win, but to score only 3 points through 3 quarters is certainly a warning sign.
The Cougars have underachieved in Provo in recent years, but don’t be surprised if they start to perform well on what has been a good home field historically. Bronco Mendenhall is a good defensive coach and the offensive issues that have played the Y in the past few years appear to be lessening. Big statement win. BYU by 6.
Welcome Back
Penn State (+3½) over @Michigan
Count me among the geniuses that thought that Penn State keeping Joe Paterno around was foolishness. At least an exit strategy or succession plan was called for, wasn’t it? After all, with the Lions having had a losing record in 4 of the previous 5 seasons including 3-9 and 4-7 the previous two campaigns, this old man in winter needed to be ushered out. Clearly I was wrong,
and changing our minds about PSU has led to late phone winners each of the past two weeks on the Nittany Lions.
With Penn State notching emotional wins each of the last three weeks and taking back to the road, I’m sure there’s plenty of technical data to be found that suggests playing against the Nittany Lions here. But that ferocious defense can slow down anybody. Michigan’s defense is no prize, and they lost 2 starters in the defensive backfield on Saturday. But surprisingly, more of Michigan’s problems initiate on offense. Minnesota’s D had a lot of problems against Purdue and Penn State the previous two weeks but they kept Chad Henne in check (under 50% passing, no TD pass for the first time in 18 games). The Wolverines offense failed miserably at crunch time, succeeding on only 3 of 14 first down conversions. Michigan was outgained by a remarkable 403-249.
There is a coach in this game who doesn’t look like he is still at the top of his game, but it isn’t Paterno, it is Lloyd Carr. Based on the magnitude of their celebration on Saturday night, it would be difficult if Penn State drew someone like Illinois this week. But you don’t let down when going to the Big House. Look for another big performance from Paterno’s bunch. Penn State by 3.
Bounce Back
Oklahoma (-5½) over @Kansas
Oklahoma was outplayed in all facets of the game at Texas on Saturday, and they were also outcoached. With less than a minute to go in the first half OU had the ball on their own 39-yard line with a 3rd and 11 upcoming. Their offense had been doing nothing but they were still in the game, down 17-6. Texas had no timeouts. Instead of running the ball and leaving Texas with no time to do any damage, the Sooners threw an incompletion, stopping the clock and setting up a punt. Not running the ball left enough time for one more Texas possession before the break. A Vince Young to Billy Patten 64 yard TD bomb right before halftime effectively put the game out of reach. Stoops has had a lot of success by being aggressive, but his strategy may need to change based on the lack of success this team is having.
But it may be time to get aggressive again. OU will be very focused this week after taking their lumps against Texas and they will be primed for a solid performance against a decent Kansas team. Kansas scored only 3 points against Kansas State after making a late week quarterback switch, losing 12-3. OU blasted that same Kansas State team the previous week 43-21. Despite Oklahoma’s problems against elite competition, that is not what they are facing today. Kansas’ Mark Mangino (a former OU assistant) is a decent coach and they scared the life out of Texas Tech and Texas here in Lawrence last year. But there is a big talent difference between these two programs, as seen by the line last year being OU by 28 at home. Too much of an adjustment, and we’ll look for the Sooners to notch a nice win. Oklahoma by 11.
No More Bullets to Dodge
@Washington State (+6½) over UCLA
UCLA has dodged a couple of major bullets the past couple of weeks. Two weeks back the Bruins trailed dreadful Washington 17-7 entering the 4th quarter of their home game against the Huskies. UCLA rallied for the win. Last week the Bruins gave up a staggering 545 total yards including 330 rushing yards to Cal (on 8.0 yards per rushing attempt) yet managed to pull out an unlikely victory thanks to a huge day by Maurice Drew, who had an 80 yard punt return for a TD, another punt return to set up a 4 yard TD drive, and some other big plays. Obviously UCLA has some defensive liabilities and you can’t always count on special teams play to overcome those.
Washington State isn’t playing well, blowing a 14-point lead at Oregon State and then losing to lousy Stanford. But Washington State does have some talent. Jerome Harrison ran for over 200 yards on Saturday and the Bruins have clearly shown that they have a soft run defense. UCLA is fat and happy and has already shown that they are capable of coming out flat, and after consecutive emotional wins this is definitely a potential flat spot for the Bruins. Pullman is a tough place to visit and Washington State will be playing with great desperation today, as they have bowl aspirations and their 3-2 record has those hopes a little shaky. WSU by 1.
Dave Fobare’s College Tech Play of the Week
KO’s Note: Again this season Dave will be providing Max readers with a college play of the week and an NFL play of the week each week in the Max. Dave’s plays will be clearly labeled. All other games are written up by Kevin O’Neill.
@Miami OH (-13) over Akron
Usually, playing big favorites that aren't outrushing or outpassing their opponents is not a good way to grow the bankroll. After 5 games the Redskins are rushing for just 3.8 ypr and giving up 4.3 ypr. Since the NCAA includes sacks in a team's rushing totals, the offensive number is clouded somewhat by the problems the Miami O-line has had protecting star QB Josh Betts. The Redskins' leading ball carrier Brandon Murphy actually has a respectable 576 yards on 120 carries (4.8 ypr). This is a substantial margin over Zips leading rusher Brent Biggs, who is running for 3.8 ypr. Biggs was injured late in last week's game against Buffalo, and as of this writing his status for Mia-OH is not known.
Miami's pass protection problems have made it difficult for Betts to wait in the pocket for patterns to develop down the field, and as a result Miami's yards/catch and overall yards/attempt numbers are down so far from the lofty standards set in 2004.
The Zips slept for 3 quarters last week at Buffalo before finally waking up and putting up 13 points in the 4th stanza in a come-from-behind win, 13-7. That sets up Buffalo in a 55-100 ATS angle featuring plays against teams off 2nd half comeback wins.
But the best tech material on this game springs from Akron's game two weeks ago. At home and favored by 10.5 against Central Michigan, Akron played well in the first half en route to a 17-7 halftime lead. They collapsed in the second half as the Chips scored 24 unanswered points to win going away 31-17. By successfully atoning for that loss with their win over Buffalo the Zips have set themselves up for another fall, according to the terms of an 32-8 ATS angle that has a cover margin of more than 10 points per game.
Skins Sludge
Redskins (+6) over @Chiefs
Washington has specialized in ugly, low scoring games this season. The final margins of their games have been 2,1,3, and 2. Their offense has been improving on a weekly basis and while the decision to elevate Mark Brunell to starter was a shaky one, the veteran is playing significantly better than he was last year. Redskins D is excellent, although the non-use of Lavar Arrington is certainly a strange situation. Remarkably, the Redskins success has been in spite of losing the turnover battle in every game they’ve played thus far.
Chiefs were given 6 days off by Vermeil in their off week, but we prefer ugly dogs off their bye weeks, not substantial favorites allowing 368 yards per game. We’ll take nearly a TD with the underdog that allows only 282 yards per game and plays in games that go down to the wire on a weekly basis. Redskins by 1.
Done With Mirrors
Patriots (+3) over @Broncos
Patriots are terribly beat up on defense, but find ways to piece together wins. They showed a lot of guts in beating the Falcons in Atlanta thanks to their offense bailing out the defense. But they may be able to do some work against an overrated Broncos offense that had only 11 first downs and 257 yards in their win over the Redskins.
Don’t mind taking points against a phony winner from the week before, and the Broncos were outgained by 190 yards in their win over the Redskins on Sunday. Broncos have a reputation as a good offensive team despite gaining only 4.9 yards per play while giving up 5.1.
The Patriots certainly have the offense, and the Broncos defense is not overwhelming. Patriots have already won at tough venues Pittsburgh and Atlanta and should be non-plussed by the Mile High environment, as the Broncos have underachieved in the new venue. Patriots by 3. Despite misgivings over playing a two TD favorite that has not shown a superior stat edge in this matchup, the emotional double whammy the Zips are under is enough of an edge to make MIAMI-OH -14 the College Tech Play of the Week.
NFL
Sunday, October 16, 2005
Maximum Effort
Saints (+) over Falcons
@San Antonio
The Saints couldn’t have played any worse at Green Bay, and New Orleans had 5 turnovers, 13 penalties, dreadful special teams, and pretty much gave up. And it is certainly damaging in the long run to lose Deuce McAllister to a torn ACL. But if anything has been true during the Jim Haslett era, it is to not expect last week’s effort to be a harbinger of things to come.
While not a home site, the Saints are camped out in San Antonio. The players are living there for now. They train there, and are there all week. They enjoyed a substantial home field advantage in their win over the Bills, which was the only game in San Antonio thus far. Backing a home team off a horrid road performance is never a bad idea in the NFL.
Falcons are clearly the better team, but they’ve got some problems of their own right now. Mike Vick’s health has always been very touchy in Atlanta. Two years ago he didn’t want to play through an injury, thinking of his career rather than the short term. But when the Falcons’ brass made the same decision in having him on the inactive list against New England, Vick was miffed. The Falcons also had a big loss when middle linebacker Ed Hartwell went down for the season. Harwell is a key performer for the Falcons and he’ll be missed.
Saints probably won’t be a playoff contender, but they made a big run last season through adversity and can’t be counted out. At 2-3, they are in another must win situation off a horrific performance. This is the kind of situation that has seen them play well in recent years and has rewarded contrarian backers. Saints by 1.
Fobare’s NFL Tech Play of the Week
@Baltimore (-5) over Cleveland
The Ravens suffered an emotional meltdown of near-historic proportion last week in a 35-17 loss at Detroit. Baltimore was flagged for 21 penalties (and 2 ejections), just one shy of the all time NFL record. The 147 yards assessed turned a very competitive game into a blowout win for the Lions. And had the game remained competitive for the full 60 minutes Baltimore probably would have broken the record with room to spare. By the time the Lions went up 35-17 midway thru the 4th quarter the Ravens had already suffered all of their 21 penalties.
Why did the Ravens, and in particular their star-studded defense, lose their composure? Baltimore came to Ford Field expecting the Lions to lie down and roll over for them like good little pussycats. After 2 weeks of turmoil in Detroit after a loss to Tampa the Lions were in a feisty mood and looking to atone for their failures thus far. The longer the game went without Baltimore being able to impose their will the more frustrated they became.
Fuel was added to the fire thanks to a strong mutual dislike between 2nd year Lions RB Kevin Jones and Ravens star LB Ray Lewis. The feud started last year in an exhibition game. On Jones' first carry Lewis welcomed the rookie ball carrier to the NFL with a regular season tackle and followed it up by ripping Jones' helmet off. Jones took offense and on Sunday had his chance for revenge. The rest of the Ravens' D got into the act and a lot of heavy hits were doled out on both sides whenever Jones carried the ball. Jones had to leave the game with a "light" concussion after five carries in a span of seven snaps inside the Baltimore 10 yard line late in the third quarter.
That is a rather long summary of last weeks' Ravens-Lions game but there is a payoff. Rarely do the emotional motivations behind tech angles fit a particular game as well as this week's game for Baltimore. At 1-3 SU a Ravens team used to winning seasons faces a make-or-break game this week. Game 5 teams with their backs against the wall are very dangerous as highlighted in a 35-7 ATS angle from the database that is already 3-0 ATS this season with wins last weekend on Green Bay, Buffalo and the Jets. And that is why Baltimore -5 is the NFL Tech Play of the Week.
SELECTIONS: October 13-17, 2005
In my mind systems are more valuable than trends. A system can be true for the entirety of either college or pro football. Trends focus on single teams. Take systems with a grain of salt, but they can prove to be valuable tools in a handicapper’s arsenal. Sometimes they last for a while. Sometimes they turn around. Always ask yourself, “does this make sense?â€Â
posted by goat-
Oct. 12 2005 10:48am -
0 likes
Pro Edge Football Picks Week 6--final
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PRO EDGE YTD: 24-11-1 ATS
WEEK 6
Saturday:
SYRACUSE -2.0 -105
TEMPLE +41.0
MICHIGAN -3.0
FLORIDA +6.0
MEMPHIS +10.0
VANDY +16.0
VIRGINIA +7.0
TEASE: SO MISS -2.0 and PURDUE -1.5
Sunday:
PANTHERS +1.0
PATRIOTS +3.0 +105
BILLS -3.0 -125
TEASE: CHIEFS +0.5 and RAVENS PK
Monday:
RAMS +14.0 -120
ALL LINES PER OLYMPIC 1:45 A.M. CENTRAL WED OCT 12
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2005 2:54pm -
0 likes
Ncaa 10/15 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Ok guys off to a solid start so far in NCAA football this year. Overall record now stands @ 30-13ATS YTD. Net winnings are currently at +$2885 or +28.85 units YTD. Now onto the important stuff. I was going to wait to post this play but I've decided not to. Only 3 plays for Sat for me. 1 play is my largest play of the Year. 10 units. So here is what I got for sat.
USC -12 10 units wagering 1100 to win 1000
Arizona -5 1unit wagering 110 to win 100
Iowa St +5.5 1unit wagering 110 to win 100
GLTA
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2005 2:55pm -
0 likes
Additional Trends:
Thursday-Saturday, 10/13-15/2005
CLEMSON (2 - 3) at NC STATE (2 - 2) - 10/13/2005, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NC STATE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NC STATE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-1 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA LAFAYETTE (1 - 4) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 3) - 10/13/2005, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
LA LAFAYETTE is 1-0 straight up against ARKANSAS ST over the last 3 seasons
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UTEP (3 - 1) at TULANE (2 - 2) - 10/14/2005, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTEP is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
UTEP is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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S FLORIDA (3 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 4) - 10/15/2005, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ALABAMA (5 - 0) at MISSISSIPPI (2 - 3) - 10/15/2005, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI is 1-1 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI is 1-1 straight up against ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GEORGIA TECH (3 - 2) at DUKE (1 - 5) - 10/15/2005, 3:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WAKE FOREST (2 - 4) at BOSTON COLLEGE (5 - 1) - 10/15/2005, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO (4 - 1) at TEXAS (5 - 0) - 10/15/2005, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 62-41 ATS (+16.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-0 against the spread versus COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 1-0 straight up against COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOUISVILLE (4 - 1) at W VIRGINIA (5 - 1) - 10/15/2005, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOUISVILLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
W VIRGINIA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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WISCONSIN (5 - 1) at MINNESOTA (5 - 1) - 10/15/2005, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-1 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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RUTGERS (3 - 2) at SYRACUSE (1 - 4) - 10/15/2005, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
SYRACUSE is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SYRACUSE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SYRACUSE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 1-1 against the spread versus RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
SYRACUSE is 1-1 straight up against RUTGERS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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INDIANA (4 - 1) at IOWA (4 - 2) - 10/15/2005, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
IOWA is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
IOWA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
IOWA is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MICHIGAN ST (4 - 1) at OHIO ST (3 - 2) - 10/15/2005, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games after playing a conference game since 1992.
MICHIGAN ST is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OHIO ST is 2-0 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GEORGIA (5 - 0) at VANDERBILT (4 - 2) - 10/15/2005, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANDERBILT is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
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OHIO U (2 - 3) at C MICHIGAN (3 - 3) - 10/15/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO U is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO U is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO U is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NORTHWESTERN (3 - 2) at PURDUE (2 - 3) - 10/15/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-1 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 1-1 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI (4 - 1) at TEMPLE (0 - 6) - 10/15/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEMPLE is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TEMPLE over the last 3 seasons
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KENT ST (1 - 4) at NAVY (2 - 2) - 10/15/2005, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BOWLING GREEN (3 - 2) at BUFFALO (0 - 5) - 10/15/2005, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOWLING GREEN is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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AKRON (3 - 2) at MIAMI OHIO (2 - 3) - 10/15/2005, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI OHIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
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TOLEDO (4 - 1) at BALL ST (1 - 4) - 10/15/2005, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TOLEDO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
TOLEDO is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALL ST is 1-1 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
BALL ST is 1-1 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
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COLORADO ST (3 - 2) at BYU (2 - 3) - 10/15/2005, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO ST is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 74-51 ATS (+17.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in October games since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
COLORADO ST is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
BYU is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in home games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BYU is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BYU is 1-1 against the spread versus COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
BYU is 1-1 straight up against COLORADO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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UNLV (2 - 4) at AIR FORCE (2 - 4) - 10/15/2005, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 2-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 2-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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E CAROLINA (2 - 3) at SMU (2 - 4) - 10/15/2005, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEW MEXICO (3 - 3) at WYOMING (4 - 2) - 10/15/2005, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
WYOMING is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 2-0 straight up against WYOMING over the last 3 seasons
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PENN ST (6 - 0) at MICHIGAN (3 - 3) - 10/15/2005, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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OKLAHOMA ST (3 - 2) at TEXAS A&M (3 - 2) - 10/15/2005, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS A&M is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 1-1 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS A&M is 1-1 straight up against OKLAHOMA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2005 2:56pm -
0 likes
NFL Trends
Sunday, October 16th
New York Giants at Dallas, 1:00 EST
NY Giants - 4-9 ATS at Dallas
Dallas - 7-0 Under as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
Carolina at Detroit, 1:00 EST
Carolina - 8-1 ATS as an underdog
Detroit - 7-2 Under off a home win
Atlanta at New Orleans, 1:00 EST
Atlanta - 33-17 ATS off a non-conference game
New Orleans - 2-11 ATS at home vs. Atlanta
Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 EST
Minnesota - 23-3 Over away off a loss by 14+ points
Chicago - 1-7 ATS off a non-conference game
Washington at Kansas City, 1:00 EST
Washington - 11-3 ATS as a road underdog
Kansas City - 14-4 Over off a home game
Cincinnati at Tennessee, 1:00 EST
Cincinnati - 5-1 Over after winning 4 of their last 5 games
Tennessee - 3-10 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh, 1:00 EST
Jacksonville - 6-0 Under off a win by 3 points or less
Pittsburgh - 33-14 ATS in October
Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 EST
Cleveland - 9-17 ATS vs. conference opponents
Baltimore - 12-4 Over as a home favorite
Miami at Tampa Bay, 1:00 EST
Miami - 9-2 Over off a road loss
Tampa Bay - 12-2 ATS off a loss as a road favorite
New England at Denver, 4:15 EST
New England - 8-1 ATS as an underdog
Denver - 38-21 Over at home off an Over
New York Jets at Buffalo, 4:15 EST
NY Jets - 6-0 Under away in October
Buffalo - 14-5 Under off a home game
San Diego at Oakland, 4:15 EST
San Diego - 10-3 ATS at Oakland
Oakland - 3-10 ATS vs. division opponents
Houston at Seattle, 8:30 EST ESPN
Houston - 10-2 ATS off BB losses
Seattle - 0-8 ATS off a division game
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Monday, October 17th
St. Louis at Indianapolis, 9:00 EST ABC
St. Louis - 8-1 Over vs. non-conference opponents
Indianapolis - 9-2 ATS off a road game
** (TC) Denotes Time Change
Bye Week:
Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers
Philadelphia Eagles
San Francisco 49ers
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2005 2:57pm -
0 likes
Additional Trends:Sunday, 10/16/2005
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NY GIANTS (3 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 2) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CAROLINA (3 - 2) at DETROIT (2 - 2) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (3 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 3) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at CHICAGO (1 - 3) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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WASHINGTON (3 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 40-19 ATS (+19.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 25-7 ATS (+17.3 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CINCINNATI (4 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 3) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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CLEVELAND (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (1 - 3) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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MIAMI (2 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 1) - 10/16/2005, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 2) at DENVER (4 - 1) - 10/16/2005, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NY JETS (2 - 3) at BUFFALO (2 - 3) - 10/16/2005, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games where the total is 35 or less since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 3) - 10/16/2005, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (0 - 4) at SEATTLE (3 - 2) - 10/16/2005, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-33 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-28 ATS (-19.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
SEATTLE is 20-37 ATS (-20.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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ST LOUIS (2 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 0) - 10/17/2005, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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Coaching Trends:
Coaches Corner: October 7
Here are the coaching trends for this weekend's NFL Football games.
San Diego: Schottenheimer is 7-0 ATS off a straight up win by 21 or more points.
posted by phantom
Oct. 12 2005 2:58pm