MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK 10/4-10-10
Newsletter oct 4th -10th
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Marc Lawrence Playbook
3 BEST BET
Lsu over VANDERBILT by 3
Despite last week's stunning loss to Middle Tennessee, Vandy
is experiencing its best start in two decades. We have to go
back to 1984 to find the Commodores with four wins going
into game six. Curiously, in that year, Vandy was at home
against LSU, laid 14 points to the Tigers and lost the whole
game. This year’s winning record was fashioned by five
straight games against losing teams. Still, with the Bengals
looking dead ahead to games with Florida and Auburn up
next, we'll opt for the Commies. This just in: .500 > conference
home dogs, off a SU home favorite loss as a double-digit
favorite, are 11-3 ATS. Take the generous offering.
GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET UPSET
Georgia over TENNESSEE by 7
Despite a valiant effort in Florida, a remarkable comeback
win in Baton Rouge and last week’s win over Mississippi,
Tennessee still isn’t playing well. Don’t expect the Vols, and
their 2-headed QB, to improve against a Georgia team that
has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in
the series. Tennessee is a great road team but the Vols have
covered just eight of their last 30 home games and stands
2-15 ATS here versus .600 or better opposition. Well-rested
Georgia is on our mind today.
5* best bet
PURDUE over Iowa by 17
It wasn’t hard to see Iowa’s big bounceback against Illinois
coming last week. The Hawkeyes had been humiliated at
Ohio State and were seething about their dismal effort. This
one is a little tougher to figure. Iowa still doesn’t have a
running game and is vulnerable in the secondary. Will Purdue
have a Notre Dame hangover? Joe Tiller has now beaten
seven of the eight teams that followed the Irish on Purdue’s
schedule. Boiler revenge could be the deciding factor (Boilers
are 36-3 ATS in its last 30 revenge wins). That and the fact
that Joe Tiller is the answer to this week's Trivia Teaser (see
page 2). FYI: Iowa is 4-31 ATS in SU losses to avenging teams,
including 1-18 ATS when playing off a win. Just Due It.
4 BEST BET
UCLA over California by 14
Cal has dominated this series of late but Ucla hasn’t been this
good for a while. We’ll see how good the Golden Bears are
today. After a five-game stretch to open the season where
Cal didn’t face a winning team, the jury is still out on the
Berkeley boys. We do know the best part of this week's
SMART BOX comes to bat for the Bruins. With Cal just 3-16
ATS on the road off a win in games in which they allow 28 or
more points (UCLA is averaging 42 PPG this season), look for
the series host to improve to 5-0-1 ATS. Bruins ruin Cal's hopes
of a perfect season.
E CAROLINA over Rice by 4
Owls have been crushed early on and East Carolina is certainly
better than it has been over the past couple of years. Rice hasn’t
had a lot of success over the past decade but what success it did
enjoy came because of a relentless running game that eventually
wore down its opponents. Unfortunately, the Owls have
abandoned the option and have become just another lousy team.
WASHINGTON ST over Stanford by 14
Stanford has somehow found a way to cover against Washington
State no matter what the status of the two teams. The Cardinal is
11-2 ATS against Wazzu in the last 13 meetings, including five in
a row here. We have two problems with taking Stanford. One is
Trent Edwards, the Cardinal QB. Will he play and, if he does, will
he finish? The other is Bill Doba, the WSU coach. This guy finds
ways to win games he shouldn’t and wins games he should.
NEBRASKA over Texas Tech by 3
Is there a bigger revenge game in college football this season?
We don’t think so. Nebraska went chugging into Lubbock last
year and limped back to Lincoln with the worst loss in school history
in their pockets, a 70-10 ass kicking. We know these aren’t your
father’s Cornhuskers or even your older brother’s but they will be
pumped to the max to even the score. Besides, does anybody know
if the Red Raiders are any good? This is their first road game and
Nebraska is 24-0 SU in home Big 12 games after playing at home.
VIRGINIA TECH over Marshall by 31
Virginia Tech passed a test last week. It wasn’t a major exam but it
was a test. The Hokies derailed West Virginia’s undefeated express
with a convincing 34-17 win and, with a favorable schedule ahead,
appears to be headed for the ACC title game. Marshall can’t win
this game (the Herd lost at Central Florida, for God’s sake) but our
Smart Box tells us not to do the Hokie Pokie here.
UAB over Smu by 22
Smu beat Tcu in Dallas, then proceeded to lose its next two
games by a combined 97-18 score. After a break in the action at
Huntington, the Ponies travel to Birmingham to try and stop
another offensive machine. With the Horses standing at 5-54-1
ATS when they allow 28 or more, we’ll either lay this or leave it.
Utah over COLORADO ST by 3
We touched upon Utah’s remarkable record as a road dog last
week and we’ll revisit that mark here. following last week's loss
at North Carolina they are 20-3 ATS as road dogs. They're also
12-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a conference pup, with ten
outright wins in the batch and only one of the three losses by
more than three points. Of course, that loss was to Colorado State
who is improving on a weekly basis. Take it or fake it.
LA TECH over Hawaii by 6
In Hawaii’s last road game, the Rainbows shut out an Idaho team
that was without three of its starting offensive lineman and its
best running back. As far as we know, the Bulldogs are healthy.
What isn’t so healthy is the Louisiana Tech pointspread log. LT has
never won or covered against the Rainbows. But since Hawaii is
just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games, we’ll pass.
W MICHIGAN over Ball St by 10
It’s not very often that you see a team as bad as Western Michigan
have a chance to win a third straight game. Ball State, with just
three covers and one win in its last 15 road games, is a good
candidate to make that happen for the Broncos. Robbie Haas takes
over for the injured Ryan Cubit at QB for WMU and we don’t
expect the Ponies to miss a beat. We ain’t layin’ it, though.
TOLEDO over E Michigan by 27
Fans sitting on the fifty yard line in the Glass Bowl will feel like
they’re at a tennis match as the offenses go up and down the
field with little or no resistance met. Matt Bohnet is almost as
good as Toledo’s Bruce Gradkowski and Bohnet has the best WR
in the league in Eric Desauliers. Eastern looks like a live dog in this
game until you see Toledo sitting at 32-1 SU and 22-6 ATS in its
last 33 home games – not to mention 25-2 ATS in its last 27 wins!
FLORIDA over Mississippi St by 34
The Gators were ambushed in Tuscaloosa last week and normally
it might need more than a week to get back to a winning mental
attitude. Unless, of course, Mississippi State is coming to town.
The Starkville Dogs have lost 20 consecutive SEC road games with
only 5 covers in the mix and Florida is anxious to erase both the
loss to Alabama and that embarrassment in Mississippi last season
(Gators laid 24 - lost the game on the field). Need we remind you
Florida is 28-3-1 ATS in SU revenge victories. Lay it!
TULANE over Houston by 3
Houston is not a good road team to start with, but when you ask
them to beat a team who is playing with revenge, they get even
worse. The Cougars have faced that situation 21 times in the last
few years and have cashed exactly three tickets. That won’t win
any endorsements from us. Here’s the problem: Is this a road game
for Houston? You decide.
LOUISVILLE over N Carolina by 17
The Tar Heels have won two games in the past two weeks that
says a lot about their character. They fended off the revengeminded
Wolfpack of NC State two weeks ago then got revenge
of their own against Utah this week. Now they leave the Tar Heel
State with more revenge to settle. We have to see the Heels beat
somebody good on the road before we take them in a place like
this (No, NC State wasn’t a road game - it’s across the street).
Ohio St over PENN ST by 1
The Buckeyes have had an extra week to get ready for this game
which many believed would be their toughest conference test of
the season. We agree this will be a tough game, mostly because
of the physical play of both defenses, but we don’t know about
the word test. THIS will be the test - Can Ohio State overcome its
pathetic 1-11 ATS mark on the road after a double-digit win?
Smart Box says OSU. We'll stay on the sidelines for now.
MICHIGAN over Minnesota by 3
You just knew that Michigan was going to play at the top of its
game in East Lansing last week. The Wolverines had not lost
(14-0 ) when standing at exactly .500, at least not since 1980, and
their backs were to the wall in conference play. Now, the Wolves
face a team that cannot seem to beat them. Minnesota has one
win in its last 23 meetings with just eight covers. Still, Michigan
might be a little flat here. For sure, Minnesota won’t.\
Akron over BUFFALO by 13
Akron coach JD Brookhart has never lost a game to a sub .500
opponent. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs .600 or better
opposition. But the story of this game has to be the offensive
disparity on the field. Going into last weekend, the Bulls were
averaging ONE point per game. Akron’s offense was rolling along
at a 28 ppg clip. We won’t go anywhere near the Bulls today.
Air Force over NAVY by 3
After the loss to Colorado State, Fisher DeBerry stated that his
team had only one thing left to play for, the Commander-in-Chief
trophy. This is where that quest starts. The stats are negative for
both teams in this situation and the only significant edge for either
team is in the Falcon experience at the quarterback position. Air
Force loses that advantage with its porous defense and poor ball
security. Still, we’ll look hard at the Pilots if they remain the dog.
IOWA ST over Baylor by 3
Baylor made a lot of big chalk players review their handicapping
policies with that staunch effort in College Station. The Bears are
apparently a lot better than the vast majority of bettors thinks.
They have covered 17 of their last 25 games as opposed to Iowa
State which has just four covers in its last 17 league games. Coming
off that big game with Nebraska with a double revenge game
with Missouri dead ahead, ISU will have trouble focusing here.
We’ll focus on a much improved Baylor Bear and the points.
WYOMING over Tcu by 10
This might be TCU’s toughest test of the season. Yes, we’re saying
it will be harder to win in Laramie than it was in Norman and
we’re saying it with confidence. That doesn’t mean the Frogs won’t
do it. They overcame an inspired BYU team and an 18-point deficit
in Provo and handed Bob Stoops his first September loss ever in
Norman. TCU may be an attractive dog to some but we won’t
fade the Cowboys on the plateau. Not this year against a team
that is riding a 10 game ATS win streak.
San Diego St over UNLV by 7
This one has the potential to be as bad as the above game is good.
Although they are improving by the game, San Diego State has
no road wins this season and has only five wins in its last 25 trips
away from the Navy bases. UNLV’s only win in its last ten games
was a three-point win over Idaho as a 13-point favorite earlier
this year. Not interested.
SOUTHERN CAL over Arizona by 42
There are tons of numbers involving both teams in this game but
the most telling set is Arizona’s 9-61 ATS mark in its last 70 games
when the Wildcats allow 30 or more. Southern Cal will get 30,
most likely by the half. In their last 18 home games, the Trojans
are 18-0 SU, 15-3 ATS and have averaged 43 ppg. USC is 13-3 ATS
in games off a pointspread miss under Pete Carroll. Add our
Incredible Stat of the Week adds to the mix and it’s either lay it or
leave it for us.
BOWLING GREEN over Ohio by 27
You know that new offense that Ohio miraculously found against
Kent State? Well, the Bobcats better bring it with them to Doyt
Perry Stadium. Bowling Green has averaged 44 ppg on this field
over the past three-plus years and has covered 21 of its last 30
conference games here. Ohio is a meager 6-23 ATS in its last 29
games allowing 30 or more. Don’t like that BG defense, though.
COLORADO over Texas A&M by 3
If you watched the last two games that Texas A&M played, you
would never bet on the Aggies again. The kid from Texas State
passed the A&M secondary dizzy and the Baylor defense stymied
the Aggie offense from start to finish. But Texas A&M was a
prohibitive favorite in both of those games. Here, the Aggies are
the underdogs and that’s the only thing keeping us from loading
up on Colorado. A&M is a pitiful 2-13 ATS in its last 15 road games
against winning teams and is 2-41 ATS in its last 43 road losses.
NEVADA over Idaho by 10
We won’t pretend to know who’s going to win or cover this but
we will tell what we do know. Nevada is a far different team at
home than it is on the road. Idaho is bad everywhere. In all fairness
to the Vandals, they have played representatively this season at
tougher venues but they are crippled by injuries right now.
Wouldn’t lay this but there’ll be no potatoes for dinner tonight.
memphis ove c fla by 7
Memphis isn’t the greatest road team in the world and, with a
raw freshman QB forced into action because of injuries, probably
won’t erase that reputation this year. But taking Central Florida,
who has one home win in its last eight tries, is too risky to imagine.
Tigers' huge edge in the ground game puts them in the winner's
circle.
BOSTON COLLEGE over Virginia by 10
Virginia’s schedule to this point hasn’t contained anything like
what the Cavs will see here. Boston College is a tough, physical
team that historically defends its home turf with passion,
particularly in conference play. With a loss to Florida State in its
last league home game, expect the Eagles to play with that same
passion here. After getting routed by a Maryland team that has
struggled this season, we don't dare take Virginia. Look for BC's
O'Brien to improve to 10-2 ATS at home against a conference foe
off a loss.
FLORIDA ST over Wake Forest by 28
Now, we know that Wake Forest isn’t good. In fact, last week's
cover against Clemson was the Deacons' first in their last nine
games. We also know that the Seminole offense isn’t exactly
explosive. Nor does the Tribe relish the role of DD favorites with
five straight failures in that role. But there’s nothing wrong with
the FSU defense (allowing 82 rush yards per game). Wake is 0-15
SU and 2-12 ATS when the Deacons don’t run for 150 yards.
MIAMI FL over Duke by 31
Another Sunshine State mismatch pits the hopeless Dukies against
an improving Miami Hurricane. No one will give Duke a look here
but keep in mind that the Devils are a stunning 13-5 ATS in their
last 18 tries as road underdogs. Miami has covered less than half
the time in its last 30 home games and definitely won’t be at an
emotional peak for this – not with Temple up next.
PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati by 13
On the list of disappointing teams of 2005, Pittsburgh is right at
the top. Dave Wannstedt appears to be completely lost on the
sidelines, the offensive line can’t protect Tyler Palko and the
Panthers have no running game. Cincinnati, however, isn’t much
better than the Youngstown State team that is Pitt’s only victim
of the year. With neither team capable of winning, we’ll pass.
OKLAHOMA ST over Missouri by 1
You can’t accuse Missouri of rolling over and playing dead for
Texas. The Tigers played their hearts out, at least in the first half,
and used a year’s worth of emotion in that titanic battle. What do
they have left here? A far better QB, a much better running game,
and, for one of the few times in the last four years, no coaching
disadvantage. Oklahoma State is struggling under new head coach
Mike Gundy but does own over 100 yards the better defense.
KANSAS ST over Kansas by 10
After ten straight losses with no covers in this series, the Jayhawks
rose up and knocked down their instate rivals last season. Those
wins are uplifting and positive for the program, particularly one
that’s being resurrected. That win came in Lawrence. This game is
in Manhattan where Kansas has lost and failed to cover five in a
row by a combined margin of 44-221. Kansas State is 17-4 ATS in
its last 21 conference revenge wins.
S CAROLINA over Kentucky by 10
We’re not really sure how South Carolina will respond to the loss
of their starting QB Blake Mitchell but we do know how the
Gamecocks have performed in the role they fit today. SC is 3-9
ATS in its last 12 tries as home chalk and has covered just nine of
its last 26 SEC games. Kentucky, despite decades of mediocrity, is
10-2 ATS as road dogs with rest. We just watched the tape of
Kentucky’s game at Indiana. More mediocrity.
army by 6
Army has lost 38 of its last 41 games and cannot be played at this
number. Central Michigan has NEVER won a lined non-conference
road game (0-16 SU; 3-13 ATS since hitting the Big Board in 1999)
and is suddenly favored to do so. The Chippewas cannot be played
at this number.
TEXAS over Oklahoma by 10
This is a game Texas HAS to win. The Longhorns have lost five
straight times to Oklahoma with no covers, all by double digits
and three times as the favorite. It has been the focus of the Cows
since the beginning of the season. On paper, it looks like the
Sooners don’t have a chance but it's looked that way before. Texas
has certainly outperformed OU on the field this season and the
Horns clearly have the better team. Could this be Mack Brown’s
year? Before snapping the rubber band you might want to think
about this... Bob Stoops has been a double-digit dog once in his
career. He won the whole game (Florida St. in 2000 Orange Bowl).
Maryland over TEMPLE by 19
Temple doesn’t win many games, three of its last 29 to be exact,
but the Owls are not an easy pointspread win. The Hooters have
covered five of their last seven as a touchdown-plus home dog
despite winning only one of the seven games. Maryland owns a
reputation as an awesome favorite but the Terps are a lowly 1-6
ATS in their last seven non-conference games as the chalk.
Disinterested road favorites are never high on our priority list.
NFL
4* best bet
Chicago over CLEVELAND by 10
It had to happen and this is the week. No, not another reliefaid
signing by Jeff George. And no, not another appearance
by those Damn Yankees in the playoffs. We're talking the
first time new Browns head coach Romeo Crennel dons the
role of a favorite. After taking 24 points in their first three
games, Cleveland will lay some to the improving Bears. We
think it's a mistake, given the fact that Chicago has held all
three of their foes to season low yards in 2005. Look for the
Windy City boys to improve to 9-1 ATS as dogs with rest.
5 BEST BET
JACKSONVILLE over Cincinnati by 13
Marv Lewis has done the job. He took one of the worst
teams in the league and, in a few short years, has made
the Bengals a feared adversary. He has one thing left to do
other than the obvious. He needs to make Cincinnati more
competitive on the road. The Striped Cats are a woeful 8-52
SU in their last 60 road games against .500 or better teams.
Like Chicago, the Jags have also held every foe to a season
low yardage mark this season. With the 'Ville 4-0 ATS off a
double digit defeat, it's Jack or the track here, hobo.
Tennessee shouldn’t be favored on the road against anyone and
Houston shouldn’t be favored anywhere. If you need to make a
move, check out this week's Awesome Angle on page 2. Can't
lay points with winless Texans.
3 BEST BET
DALLAS over Philadelphia by 6
We already know that the Eagles are a superb road team.
Like several other teams in the league, Dallas is far better
at home than it is on the road but better is a relative word.
Contributing factor here is Bill Parcells' sterling mark at
home in division games (30-9 SU & 26-7-2 ATS when his club
is .500 or more). That and the fact he is 5-0 ATS in his NFL
career when playing off three ATS losses against a foe that
is off a SU dog win. Chip in the fact that Super Bowl losers
are 10-26-2 ATS as road chalk against .500 or better
opposition the next year and we suddenly have the makings
of an upset. How about them Cowboys!
SAN DIEGO over Pittsburgh by 1
The well rested Steelers are 16-4 ATS as October dogs in their
last 20 tries and they are a dominating 9-1-1 ATS against these
Chargers in the last 11 meetings. San Diego needs to win every
home game it plays and the Chargers are good enough to do it.
Still, let's see where this number settles before snapping the
rubber band.
DENVER over Washington by 6
Once again, we’ll remind you that the Redskins are at the bottom
of the league’s average points scored per game list and will likely
be there when the season ends - yet they are 3-0. Because of
that, we must point out that Denver is 96-11 SU and 76-28-3 ATS
at home when the opponent scores less than 18 points. Those
numbers include 16 wins in a row with 12 covers. The last loss in
this role for the Broncos? Against Washington, of course.
Miami over BUFFALO by 1
Buffalo is starting to become desperate. The Bills badly need for
rookie QB JP Losman to have a good game, especially at home,
to renew the enthusiasm of one of the best home crowds in the
NFL. There is no better opponent for that event in the minds of
the Bills than the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately for Buffalo,
Dave Wannstedt doesn’t coach Miami anymore. Nick Saban does
and he can figure out a way to keep Losman from having a killer
game. No sense trying to make a struggling team win. Besides,
Bills are 0-5 ATS against rested opponents.
DETROIT over Baltimore by 1
Detroit 'should' win this game. Not because the Lions are that
good or that Joey Harrington is actually going to play like an
NFL quarterback instead of impersonating one. The Lions should
win because Baltimore’s offense is even worse than the stagnant
Lion attack. The Raven defense is getting worn down earlier than
usual because of numerous three-and-outs by the inept Balto
attackers. This is a bad game between two bad teams.
Tennessee over HOUSTON by 3
Another pair of bad teams in a Sunday full of terrible matchups.
Tennessee shouldn’t be favored on the road against anyone and
Houston shouldn’t be favored anywhere. If you need to make a
move, check out this week's Awesome Angle on page 2. Can't
lay points with winless Texans.
Indianapolis over SAN FRANCISCO by 14
Here’s some information that’s worth something. Indianapolis is
7-0 ATS off a division road game in its last seven tries and an
amazing 75-5-2 ATS in its last 82 SU road wins. Frisco has some
positive numbers but they are very small, kinda like its chance to
win the game. The Forty Niner secondary can’t cover the Colt
receivers with ATV’s. No thank you.
Carolina over ARIZONA by 3
Arizona befuddled us. Rather, the people who said that the
Cardinals were a lock to win the NFC West blew our minds. Yes,
the Cards have the skill people to win a weak division but their
offensive line is one of the NFL’s worst and the defense is average
at best. Carolina can take advantage of that weak offensive line
with its strong running game. The only thing keeping us from
posting Carolina is its terrible record as a favorite (Going into
the Green Bay game last Monday, the Panthers were 5-20 ATS in
their last 25 chances as chalk).
GREEN BAY over New Orleans by 3
The Packers are getting worse and, unless they won at Carolina
on Monday, will be winless at this stage of the season for the
first time since the year 4 BF. New Orleans has been competitive
in most games this season but so has Green Bay. The Saints just
have more wins. Sooner or later, the Pack will have one of those
breakout games and we probably won’t fade them at home until
they do. You know Favre is dying inside.
Tampa Bay over NY JETS by 1
Signing Vinny Testeverde as anything but a peanut vendor is a
waste of time and we’re not ready to back a maiden QB
(Bollinger) who was sacked 5 times in his debut against an
aggressive defense like Tampa’s. Still, the NFL and the linemaker
have a way of evening things out and until Tampa Bay covers a
road game in between home games (0-8 ATS) we’ll sit idly by
and watch Vinny throw incomplete goobers all over the stadium.
ST LOUIS over Seattle by 3
Mike Martz spent a couple of days in the hospital last week with
some kind of flu. Maybe Mike had some time to think about the
things he does that cost his team games (reverse pitches that
result in turnovers inside the 10-yard line). The Rams are still a
decent home team but Seattle is terrible on the road, particularly
in October. The Seahawks have covered once in their last 14
division road games in the Pumpkin month. We would take the
Rams here but we heard that Martz will be back on the sidelines
and we’re not taking any chances on his mental recovery.
New England over ATLANTA by 3
You could say that New England is vulnerable right now because
of the plethora of injuries that has struck the club. But you and
us aren’t the only ones who know of those injuries. The line will
be adjusted, overadjusted if Michael Vick plays. Taking a look at
the Patriots as puppies finds a 26-11 ATS mark in their last 37
tries, including five straight ATS wins against NFC teams. We ain’t
fadin’ that, nor our 'Super Respect' angle reported earlier this
year in this newsletter
