The fact that Denver has led the NFL in yardage differential in three consecutive seasons and failed to win a playoff game is a remarkable sign of underachievement. The Broncos seem to do everything well year in and year out yet can't find the consistency to ever really be considered a factor. Perhaps that is the essence of what you get with a quarterback like Jake Plummer, who has had a history of mixing in stellar playmaking capability with mistakes. Such was the case in 2004, as he put up big yardage and TD numbers (4,089 yards, 27 TD's), but was intercepted 20 times. In all, Denver finished 10-7 SU & 7-8-2 ATS, but would have been much better had it not lost three games in which it was favored by a TD or more. On a good note, the running game was able to thrive minus RB Clinton Portis, and the defense ranked fourth in the NFL overall for a 2nd straight year.

For 2005,Head Coach Mike Shanahan has again challenged himself to revive the running game, as the Broncos will start fresh at the running back position. Reuben Droughns (1,240 yards in '04) was shipped off to Cleveland and is expected to be replaced by second year pro Tatum Bell. The team also made some curious pickups in free agent Ron Dayne and draftee Maurice Clarett. Elsewhere in the draft, they went without a first round pick but used 2nd & 3rd round selection on cornerbacks. Those new additions are expected to mesh with what could be an entirely new front line consisting of 2004 Browns, namely Ebenezer Ekuban, Gerard Warren, and Michael Meyers. LB Keith Burns of Tampa Bay also returns to Denver via free agency.

It's difficult to figure this team as at times it looks to be one of the most dominant around, while on other occasions, can struggle with the NFL's bottom feeders. Shanahan has done a commendable job blending in what seems to be an endless changeover in personnel each year, as the Broncos remain extremely talented. This could be a critical year for him in Denver. Look for this group to put it together and take at least a step forward in 2005.

2005 Key Information

StatFox Power Rating: 24(6 of 32)

2005 Schedule Rating: (6 toughest of 32)

2004:(SU 10-7)(ATS 7-8-2)

L3 years:(SU 29-21)(ATS 22-25-3)

Coach Mike Shanahan: (SU 98-63) (ATS 86-79-6)

Trends by month


Denver is 1-6 ATS against Miami (9/11)

Broncos are 17-7 ATS revenging a loss by 7 or less points (9/18)

Shanahan's horses are 9-2-1 ATS in September vs. division (9/26)



Washington is perfect 4-0 ATS at Denver most recently (10/9)

Denver is 13-4 ATS at home when line is -3 to +3 (? 10/16)

Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS vs. NFC last two years (10/30)



Denver is 12-4 ATS off bye week (11/13)

J. Elway's former team is 6-2 and 4-1 ATS at home vs. Jets (11/20)

Broncos 0-7 ATS home before BB road games (11/20)



Denver is 1-12-1 against spread when the total is below 40 (? 12/17)

Favorite in Raiders game is 7-1 ATS (12/24)

Broncos are 3-12-3 ATS in last road game (12/31)

Top Teaser Angle:

Denver is 24-2 vs. 6-point teaser off a home loss

Top Money Line Angle:

Over L3 yrs. Denver is 0-9 (-14.1 units) against ML when playing team with 60%-75% pct.

Top Totals Angle:

Denver is 8-1 UNDER in roadies off AFC West contest

Pre-Season O/U wins:

UNDER 9 -155 @www.BetCris.com

Fantasy Player Must: Jason Elam

Fantasy Player Bust: Rod Smith


posted by slam

Aug. 16 2005 3:12pm

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