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2009 NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips - Part 4

2009 NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips - Part 4

So far in our NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips series, we've covered COACHING, MOTIVATION, and QB ROTATIONS. Next on our list is a team's exhibition GAMEPLAN. NFLX handicapping is completely different than analyzing how teams might play during the regular season and certainly the playoffs.

For example, a team that has a successful gameplan is quite likely to play to their strength during the season in order to give themselves the best chance of winning the game. In the preseason however, is when teams are more apt to try different things; therefore,

• Play AGAINST a team that is ignoring its strength to work on a weakness.

During exhibition season it’s common for a team with an excellent passing attack to practice their running attack. Likewise, last year’s excellent running teams are likely to be doing a lot of passing. A team simply doesn’t need to work its stron! gest stuff while ignoring its weaknesses. Running its weakest plays or the ones that need the most work won't usually mean a lot of success.

We saw a golden "GAMEPLAN" opportunity in a previous NFLX contest between the Jets and Redskins. Washington was a 3-point home favorite, but we hopped on the visitors, citing:

"Washington’s coaches were very unhappy with the 2nd-line players on both sides of the ball last week, so their goal is to get the new players acclimated and work them in on the fly. It’s not conducive to error-free play in this game, but winning this contest is not the Redskins goal.

'We're getting ready for Minnesota, and the guys coming in right now will probably not play an important part in that game, so we can't stop now,' OC Al Saunders said."

Indeed, New York was keen on competing on the scoreboard in this contest, as they coasted to a 27-14 victory, providing PRO INFO SPORT! S clients with a winning NFL Preseason selection.

Other NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips related to a team's GAMEPLAN are:

• Play ON a team with more roster spots open, especially early in the preseason.

They will tend to get the better backups into camp. Teams with more roster spots open are usually teams that had poor records the year before, often preseason underdogs.

• Play AGAINST a favorite off a playoff season that figures to be playoff bound again with basically the same team, especially early in the preseason.

Teams with most of their roster spots already filled usually lack quality free agent rookies. There simply aren’t a lot of positions open on those type of teams, making them unattractive to the better free agents – the ones with options to go to more than one training camp.

• Play AGAINST a team that will not have key starters playing against an opponent not resting its key players.

Some coaches don’t see any need to risk undue injury dur! ing the exhibition season to those players whom he already knows will be starters.

• Play AGAINST a team that is working on developing a cohesive offensive line.

Here, an established starting QB (and RB) is likely to be risked little behind an inexperienced line of rookies and free agents. In this situation, we are presented with untried linemen trying to protect a 2nd-string QB and block for 2nd-string RBs.

• Play AGAINST a team that’s auditioning a new center.

Due to every play requiring a successful snap and the center’s role of making blocking calls for the entire offensive line, the center is easily the most undervalued position on the field by bettors.

In our upcoming final article on NFL Preseason Football Handicapping Tips, we'll cover some miscellaneous advice previously discussed in any of our previous articles.

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Aug. 5 2009 6:02am

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