5 replies

1. 0 likes

   BEST BET:

   I'm taking NO LOVE to win as a dog againt Sam Hands of Stone stout. Stout is a great stand up and kick boxer, but his ground game lacks ambition. Remember those great fights against Spenser Fisher? Well, they stood for 3 rounds. Clementi, with a great ju jit su and wrestling background is very smart and knows better than to stand and trade with a banger. Just ask Melvin GUillard..who got submitted as a superior striker in the 2nd round in Clementi's last fight out. I don't like Rich CLementi, but the line is way off here. It should be a submission win for Clementi unless he gets caught. But I believe he is a cerebral fighter and will be smart enough to win this on ground.

   PC's BEST BET:

   Rich NO LOVE CLEMENTI

   Prediction: by split decision 29-28.

   3 units to win 3.9 units

   Playing the dogs...3 dogs, all with good value, all for 1 unit. I expect to at least break even on these:

   1 unit on Ed Herman +155..Even though he's fighting a better wrestler and a BJJ standout world champ, I'll take Herman because of his conditioning. As long as he doesn't get caught, his stand up and training at Xtreme Couture should have him in better shape and with a good game plan.

   1 unit to win 1.55 units (+155)

   1 unit on Brad Morris +175..Undercard fight with two guys you haven't heard of. Morris is a submission heavyweight while Velasquez (who I saw on BoDog's last fight card) is another "prospect" for the weak heavyweight division. He's only had 2 fights against nobody's. The experience factor has to go to Morris and even though he's fighting a wrestler, his pedigree is good enough to make it happen.

   1 unit to win 1.75 units

   Charles McCarthy +285

   I hate BIsping. I think he's overrated. I think the UFC props him to expand their Euro market. In two fights against TUF fighters, not even the upper echelon of the division, he's 0-2. (Yes he lost the Hammill fight, no doubt about it). I hope it doesn't go to decision but McCarthy is not the layup we saw on the TUF show. His submissions are world class and if he can get Bisping to the ground, we got action. I'm interested to see how Bisping handles the weight cut as well. Every fight I've seen the past 2 years, the person cutting a division has serious trouble in their first fight. Just ask Ace, Fitchie, Jardine, and scores of others who had trouble cutting before the fight. If it goes 3 rounds, I'm not so sure the conditioning and cardio edge should go to Bisping but rather McCarthy. I'm tellin ya, Bisping is overrated and going to get exposed. Maybe not in this fight, but sometime soon to a lesser fighter.

   1 unit to win 2.85 units

   Really don't want to bet the other fights because of the juice:

   Predictions:

   GSP in 5 rounds..will be a war that people don't expect. Serra is a small target and can get it to the ground. Let's see if GSP thinks his ground game is as good as it looked against Koscheck.

   Franklin to knock out Lutter

   Starnes to upset Quarry

   Bocek to upset Danzig

   Belcher to beat Day

   Hironaka to "retire" Goulet from the UFC. Goulet is in my opinion, the worst fighter not named Elvis in the UFC.

   GL fellas..post em and let's enjoy this great card. Man the undercard has 4 fights I really want to see. Cmon Dana, let's televise the whole event.

   

   posted by pc7588

   April 18 2008 10:11am
2. 0 likes

   throwing my plays out there for what they are worth

   valasquez over morris -225 2.25/1

   UFC real high on this guy. 2 time all american wrestler, first two fights in 06 were on 5 months mma training, trains at AKA and they rave about his potential. UFC usually doesnt bring guys in this green, that combined with fact they let sylvia walk and cut jake obrien (4-1 in ufc) leads me to beleive they think they have some live prospects. Morris still has day job, 9-2 2 losses to only guys he fought with winning records. would absolutely hammer this play but dont know how the big guy handles pressure of first ufc fight.

   clementi over stout 1/1.3

   coulda hit +155 at open but layed off bc stout training last two months with Ext Ctour, fight will come down to how far stout has advanced his grappling and ground skills bc clementi well rounded, can take a punch. value on the dog.

   starnes over quarry took +300 moth or so ago .5/1,2

   can only get about +220 now. quarry looked ok at best against sell after long lay off, starnes needs to come in with game plan similiar to leben fight imo. quarry has power but i see value in dog.

   took bocek at +400 .5/2u month or so back, not so high in this one now so came back with danzig/valasques/gsp parlay 1/1.1u

   gsp looked so good last two fights, i questioned his mental v. kos, was wrong. same thing you hear now. he is bigger, stronger more athletic and seems very focused, i actually think there is value at -450. but i have now 4 parlays looking to close on gsp from last few months.

   aslo thinks belcher wins tko but too line too high, like franklin tko, and hironoka for stoppage.

   real interested in seeing miea herman, hopefully gets on tele.

   best of luck everyone

   

   posted by terpkeg

   April 19 2008 1:57pm
3. 0 likes

   Rich Clementi def. Sam Stout via Split Decision (29-27, 29-28, 28-29) after 3 Rounds.

   Good call fellas. Glad I tailed this one.

   

   posted by hilly

   April 19 2008 8:36pm
4. 0 likes

   Took a small stab at Bocek +400

   

   posted by hilly

   April 19 2008 8:45pm
5. 0 likes

   Not sure how they are pulling it off but here is a free link to live action I just found.

   http://watchtvsitcoms.com/Fighting/ufc83-1%20l%20f.php [watchtvsitcoms.com]">http://watchtvsitcoms.com/Fighting/ufc83-1%20l%20f.php [watchtvsitcoms.com]>

   

   posted by hilly

   April 19 2008 11:18pm