PC's NCAA tournaments thread
Will post right here through out the conference tourneys and NCAA tourney. As a side note, I'm not playing at all and haven't for awhile, but still cap and throw some out to the old timers. Let's roll:
St. Mary's @ Gonzaga
The Zags want to prove they deserve #1 seed and that they are legit as the #1 team in the country. I think they roll St. Mary's tonight by double digits.
PC 2** on Zags -7
Post season record: 0-0 ATS 0.00 units
posted by pc7588
27 replies
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1-0 ATS
+2.0 units. Big six conference tourneys fire up this week. Let's roll.
posted by pc7588
March 11 2013 11:19pm -
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Big East Tournament
Depaul vs. Rutgers
I'm a big fan of Myles Mack for Rutgurs. He's an old school baller and one of the reason's I'm advising you play the under. His steady scoring and emotion have made the Scarlet Knights a controlled tempo team. Cleveland Melvin can fill it up for DePaul, but something's wrong with this total. I think it should be around 135 so I'm a little scared of how easy this under looks. Here's my logic:
Rutgurs has scored an average of 53.5 points in their last 3 Big East games.
The game is at the Garden and traditionally, teams from the Big East tourney have a lower scoring average there in the post season.
Rutgurs is 10-3 ATS on the under in their last 13 including a game with DePaul.
DePaul plays atrocious defense, however Rutgurs is not exactly an offensive juggernaut since Mack took over the guard duties. I'm backing an under play here.
PC 2** on under 145
posted by pc7588
March 12 2013 10:39am -
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2-0 ATS +4 units.
I will have two plays on Wednesday, one in the afternoon, one at night. Good luck, big day tomorrow, hope you hit whatever you are on. Will have the day play up by 10:30 AM EST.
posted by pc7588
March 12 2013 11:44pm -
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Sorry, I didn't like the line movement on my day play so I stayed away. Here's what I have on tap for tonight:
Wyoming vs. New Mexico
At the beginning of the hoops season Wyoming looked like a no-brainer to make the dance going 13-0 before they lost a game. After 5 consecutive losses to end conference play, the only way they make the dance is to win their conference tourney. This team has talent but everyone expects 15# ranked New Mexico to blow them out of the water. Wyoming plays slow ball (although you wouldn't guess it from last night's score) and after playing yesterday, one might guess that this team might not have the intensity needed to play with the Lobos who are also very defensive minded. I have to roll on New Mexico, but I'm not extremely confident in it. I just think it's a good spot with a decent team (19-12) coming off a horrendous slide and knowing this is their only shot at post season play. 1H is probably a better play but I'm taking Fennis Dembo's Wyoming Cowboys to cover the number.
PC 1.5** on Wyoming +9
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia 1st round of the Big XII tourney
What a garbage game right? Well, I agree and I think it translates into a low scoring affair. The rims are notoriously tight in K.C. as they rarely get broken out for hoops at the Sprint Center. WVU is awful losing 6 or their last 7, T Tech is 2nd to last at 3-12 in the conference. Neither team has a chance in the quarterfinals. I'm taking the under although trends suggest the over. It just seems to me that a half empty house, tight rims at the sprint center (don't laugh, watch the game and see how many clank off that sucker), and two teams who really don't score will make this game be around 127ish.
PC 2** on under 132 in T Tech/WVU @ Sprint Center in Kansas City
Good luck today
Opinions:
T Tech to cover the number as a dog +9
A and M to cover the -5 against Auburn
Mississippi State to get inside +5 against South Carolina
(Opinions are other games I looked at but wouldn't pull the trigger on)
GL!
posted by pc7588
March 13 2013 4:37pm -
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2-2 ATS after on 0-2 night here's what I got on tap for Friday: +0.65 units on the week.
I said it once and I'll say it again, I think Oklahoma State has the talent to shock a lot of people and make a run in the NCAA dance. The K State matchup is a difficult one for them, but I truly believe the win outright against Angel, Rodney, and Bruce Weber's K State defense first team. If the Cats are smart, they pound it inside and penetrate. IF, and it's a big IF, Okie State can get the running game going, I think they win this game. It's a clash of two styles, but I really think Okie State is playing some of the best basketball in the country right now.
PC 2** on Okie State ML +105
Another ML game. Cuse...in the Garden....in the Big East tourney...No way I don't take them ML against Georgetown. In what should be another defense first game, I will always take the Orange in the Garden with that match-up 2-3 zone. People are talking about the Hoyas as a one seed. People seem to forget Cuse was atop the polls earlier in the season as well. As a trend play, and based on the defensive philosiphies, I have to roll on the Orange.
PC 2** on Cuse ML +105
Utah/Oregon Pac 12 Tourney
I'm taking the under as I think Utah's only chance is to slow it down. They pulled off one upset already, I think they can give Oregon fits if they pound it inside where they hold a clear advantage over Altman's push it offense. If Utah can keep it close, this under is money. If it's a blowout early, I think it goes over 140. But, since I think Utah stays inside the number, I'm backing the under.
PC 2** on under 127 1/2
posted by pc7588
March 15 2013 3:12pm -
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2-1 day + 2.10 units for a running total of 4-3 ATS and +2.75 units.
See ya Saturday with the Big East Final play and the Big XII championship play.
posted by pc7588
March 16 2013 1:47am -
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Let's roll, I'm throwing out a nice sized card today:
Big East Championship Cuse and Lville
I'm taking the Orange again. They were atrocious from the foul line, didn't play particularly well in the interior, and still managed to win our ML play yesterday. Same reason I'm playing them today as yesterday...it's the Garden, it's Cuse, and it's the last Big East tourney game as we know this league. Lville is a great team, but time and time again Cuse wins this game or covers it. I'm taking Cuse to cover and possibly win.
PC 2** on Syracuse +5 1/2
Big XII Championship The Battle of Kansas KU vs. K-State
I'm rolling the under. K State is playing tenacious defense in this tournament and they desperately want to get a win in a series that Kansas has dominated. I think the Jayhawks will win as they are playing for #1 seed with Duke's loss, but the under is the better play for me. Kansas and K State both rank in the top 40 nationally in OPPG average. KU gives up 60.1 and K State gives us 61.8. Barring overtime, I'm seeing a 64-59 kind of game.
PC 2** on KU/KSU under 131 1/2
UMASS/VCU
The Minutemen desperately need a win to get in the dance. Shaka Smart has his team already in. This is a big if, but if UMASS can get rolling from 3 point land, I think they win outright. VCU traditionally plays average defense at best in my opinion and I like UMASS to cover this game.
PC 1.5** on UMASS +8 1/2
Pac 12 Championship UCLA/Oregon
Everyone thinks this game is going under because Adams broke his foot last night. I'm taking the over as my biggest play of the day. Shabazz looked terrible against Zona and I think he breaks out tonight. Both teams are averaging over 70 points a game on the year and tonight should be a game where we get the cover in the last 3 minutes as the rallying team (UCLA in my opinion) has to foul and shoot to get back in the game.This should be a really good game with a lot of story lines. Adams is out, Shabazz and Singler have something to prove. I can very easily see this game getting in the 150 range. My biggest play of the night.
PC 3***on over 137
Opinions: (Games I looked at but wouldn't pull the trigger on)
Michigan State ML to beat Ohio State
Vandy to cover the +3 (and probably win) vs. Ole Miss
Indiana to cover the line against Wisky (-5 1/2)
Have a great Super Saturday in college hoops.
posted by pc7588
March 16 2013 1:18pm -
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Get it quick...
Adding UNC/Maryland over 141 1/2 for 2**
posted by pc7588
March 16 2013 1:38pm -
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3-2 ATS + 3.15 units on the day (lost UMASS by a hook damnit) Glad I hit the 3***
Anyways...updating.....7-5 ATS +5.9 units on this thread.
See ya tomorrow with a nice winner.
posted by pc7588
March 17 2013 1:16am -
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Let's roll:
St. Louis/VCU:
Everyone loves Shaka and the Rams, I like St. Louis to win this one convincingly. I think the Billikens are the better team and have shown it the last 3 weeks.
PC 2** on St. Louis -2
Miami vs. UNC
I really like Miami in this one. They have the "no respect" moniker and you just can't tell me that UNC is playing this well. Miami wins the ACC regular title and wins the ACC tourney. If they don't get a one seed it will be the first time in the history of the ACC that a team won both and didn't get a one seed. Miami plays better D and should dominate inside. I simply don't understand why this line is so close. I have the Canes winning by 8 to 10 points.
PC 2.5** on Miami -2 1/2
GL
posted by pc7588
March 17 2013 12:07pm -
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2-0 ATS +4.5 units today...
9-5 ATS +10.4 units for the week.
Hope you rode...see ya back for the NIT, the NCAA first round, and the all important Thursday through Sunday dance party.
Happy St. Patrick's Day.
posted by pc7588
March 17 2013 3:23pm -
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nice one PC!
Haven't logged in for a while but just happened to catch both of these today.
thanks
posted by astroman
March 17 2013 5:29pm -
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Congrats astroman. Hope all is well down in Tampa/St. Pete.
posted by pc7588
March 17 2013 9:44pm -
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Mid. TN State vs. St. Mary's:
I'm taking Middy State. This team is better than people know and should match up real well with St. Mary's. I'm not going long on this one, I think the Gaels have a good team but the game means far more to MTSU than it does St. Mary's.
PC ** on MTSU +2 1/2
Ohio at Denver
The OVC usually produces good post season teams. Ohio had a real nice run in the NCAA's recently. I will take them to get it done tonight and beat a decent Denver team.
PC 1.5** on Ohio +5 1/2
PC 1* on Ohio ML +140
GL tonight, my NIT season tips off tonight.
posted by pc7588
March 19 2013 7:30pm -
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Both the NCAA play in game and the NIT game go off in about an hour and a half. Sorry for the short notice.
posted by pc7588
March 19 2013 7:37pm -
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MONMOUTH TIME$$$$
posted by ricky
March 20 2013 9:21pm -
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10-6 ATS +8.7 Units
NCAA Thursday first round:
South Dakota State vs. Michigan
Matchup of two great point guards. SD State finished strong, Michigan faltered down the stretch. Way too many points for the 1st round with a team that can run the point well.
PC 3*** on South Dakota State +11 1/2
Wichita State vs. Pittsburgh
Valley Power! WSU gets no respect, everyone has Pitt advancing. Shockers can ball and can play slow. If Pitt can't solve the matchup man defense WSU plays, it could be a big win for the Valley again in the dance.
PC 2** on Wichita State +4
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State
Two teams that can score...and Altman used to run with the Cats in Manhatten. Ford will have Smart and Nash gunning an up tempo and the Ducks will be more than happy to oblige.
PC 3*** on over 134
Montana vs. Syracuse
I think Montana will give them a scare, line seems TOO high so I'm not going big units on this one. But I will roll the dog for a small chunk.
PC 1.5** on Montana +12 1/2
Harvard vs. New Mexico
Both teams can play very good defense and Harvard's only chance is a slow tempo game. I've watched UNM a handful of times and every time they play just tenacious Bobby Knight man defense. Wonder where Alford learned that from? Anyways, my best bet of the day.
PC 3.5** on under 122 1/2
Good luck players..huge card for me in terms of # of plays but I'm rockin them all.
posted by pc7588
March 21 2013 12:22am -
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CORRECTION!!!!
The harvard/UNM line is -126. Sorry, looking at a different game.
3.5*** on under 126
posted by pc7588
March 21 2013 12:52am -
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Bad first day, don't sweat it. Here's my Saturday card:
Harvard/Zona under 133....I lost my total on Harvard/UNM..I don't think I will lose on the under twice in a row.
PC 4**** on under 133
I like St. Louis to cover the number against Oregon. They are a solid team and should give Oregon fits. With that being said, Oregon came out and looked great against Okie State so this is a small play for me.
PC 2.5**on STLouis -4
Michigan vs. VCU
A lot of people like the Rams in this spot. Line is at -2 1/2 so I'm jumping on Michigan. Trey Burke has the leadership to beat VCU's press and they are physically much bigger than VCU.PC 3*** on Michigan -2 1/2
1* on these:
**Wichita State +7
**Colorado State +10 1/2
GL Today!
Will update Thursday and Saturday after today
posted by pc7588
March 23 2013 11:32am -
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Thursday: 1-4 ATS -10.1 Units
Saturday: 3-2 ATS +4.35 Units
14-12 +2.95 Units overall
Got my Five star total of the tourney today:
Take the over in Duke/Creighton with me. Creighton has always been known to score, but never can hold anyone down defensively. Today is going to be a 3 fest from both teams and both teams have inside players that can score too. No way McDermott and Plumlee slow it down today. Creighton loves to run and they have the bombers to do it. Wraggle looked great on Friday and Duke has been a different team since key players returned from injury. I'm taking the over for 5******.
PC 5***** on over 145 (take up to 149..it looks like it is going up)
Others:
Iowa State/Ohio State over 142 for 1.5**
Miami -7 for 2**
Good luck today.
posted by pc7588
March 24 2013 10:26am -
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thanks PC
posted by zmatty
March 24 2013 10:35am -
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GL to you sir!
posted by pc7588
March 24 2013 10:47am -
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Thursday, had a bad Sunday, here's 2 for tonight:
Continue the run on the Valley, this is their kind of game.
PC 2** on WIchita State -4
Cuse and Indiana
I like the under in this game. Cuse always poses problems for teams in the dance with the infamous 2-3 matchup zone. CJ Fair is going to have serious trouble scoring and dishing against that Indiana man to man. Best play of the night for me.
PC 3.5*** on under 136
Opinions:
Miami to cover the number
posted by pc7588
March 28 2013 6:11pm -
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2-0 +5.5 units last night...will update after this weekend but had a terrible Sunday so still need to get after it.
Got 3 tonight:
Florida -13...I think the glass slipper breaks emphatically tonight. Let's look at the two teams FGCU beat and their style. Both Gtown and San Diego State are defensive minded teams who don't have the "athletes" that FGCU has. There's a reason the line is 13, Vegas wants everyone on the Eagles but I'm not biting. The Gators are faster, stronger, and more "athletic". Don't believe the hype, Florida rolls em tonight.
PC 2** on the Gators -13
Kansas vs. Michigan:
I absolutely nailed the under with ease on a similar game between Cuse/Indy. I'm seeing the same tonight. KU is #1 in the tourney and #3 in the nation in defensive points allowed. Michigan is a rugged defensive team in the Big 10. I think this game is in the 120's. McLemore is going to have trouble scoring and KU's advantage is inside the paint. Michigan hasn't played a defense this good since Michigan State and should have trouble scoring. Kansas will extend the zone and man to not allow 3 pointers meaning Michigan will have to try do their scoring inside against the nation's premier shot blocker in Withey.
PC 3*** on under 137 KU/Michigan
Michigan State vs Duke
For a Duke team that spent most of the time in the top 10 of the nation's rankings, I'm surprised how little pub they are getting and very few people picked them to win the national championship in pools. Great coaching matchup no advantage there. But when it comes to the players on the floor, I'm giving the edge to Duke. What they lack in toughness is made up for in athleticism and finesse. I know that sounds cheesy but I think Duke is a more cohesive starting 5 than Michigan State and once both teams clamp down on defense, I think Duke has the better perimeter shooters and better rebounding. I gotta take the Dukies.
PC 2.5** on Duke -1 1/2
GL tonight!
posted by pc7588
March 29 2013 5:16pm -
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Nice PC
posted by zmatty
March 30 2013 5:59am -
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Final Four:
Cuse - 1 1/2...3 units
NCAA total of the year 5******
Roll with me on over 132 in Shockers/Lville....Think Cards will cover the line but Shockers can score and are going to have to bomb from 3 land.
I like Cuse and Boehim's experience to beat a Michigan team that will have all sorts of trouble with this zone and good defense. KU should have taken them, but Cuse will finish the job as it's been proven that Michigan has trouble with good defensive teams.
PC 3*** on Cuse
PC 5***** on WSU/Lville over
GL
posted by pc7588
April 6 2013 5:50pm -
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over 5****** winner
Let's go cuse for an 8 unit day.
posted by pc7588
April 6 2013 9:04pm