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Damn Ricky,
are we on FIYAH or are we on FIYAH $$$$$$$$$$
Good Luck to ALL $$$$$
Playoffs guys, time to get our A-Game together. Everything is pre-season until the Superbowl $$$$$$$
BET WISELY $$$$$$$
posted by sundaybreak
Jan. 14 2005 2:54am -
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Another good evening for me folks!
Houston we dont have a problem - but we nearly damn well did!!
Did I not say that if the points total was under 170 then bet would lose?? well it would have only for OT, pushing over 170 and thankfully, houston did all the scoring in the final minute! And I was rooting for all you guys who took the Under 184 too - close but comfortable!
ATS now 17-8
Whats with niagra though boys?? handed some back on that one !
Tonight, early early bird special; Washington at Milwaukee, taking
Washington +1.5
Thats my first official play, and tending to like Spurs -8 & no revenge for Pacers as am still liking the SUPER SUNS -6 - but will confirm later!
posted by tq
Jan. 14 2005 4:01am -
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I am REALLY liking the UNDER in Spurs / Mavs game...
199.5 is a big total for any game the Spurs are playing
, never mind its against Dallas and they dont generally play D anyway (get back to that later - this is going to be a long discussion!)Spurs have gone 200+ total this season... 5 times. 13.5% (hardly ever)
Mavs have gone 200+ total this season....15 times. 45.5% (still less than half the time)
so between them they only go 200+ 28.5% (I know its a stretch of a stat)
Spurs at home are 8-11 O/U (under is 58%) & Mavs on the road are 5-9 O/U (under is 64%)(this makes perfect sense - at home u tend to score slightly more than on road, but still, both stats are pointing to UNDER)
h2h:
O/U is 3/7 - another victory for the under! (4 of those games were playoffs games)
but looking more closely:
The average pitched totals has been 195 (over 10 years this is what bookies have put the totals at) but the average actual total has been 187!
So what that means is the bookies always overestimate the totals in this game historically.
Another thing, the total between these 2 teams has gone 200+ twice! (and one of those games Tim Duncan didnt play and Spurs didnt play half set offence - they played run n gun to match Dallas)
In the past 6 regular season games the total has been pitched at its highest at 192.5
I believe the only reason that this line is so high is because Dallas has been averaging 223pts total per game the past 5 games as opposed to their season avg of 194.5 (excluding last 5 games)
and that in the last 5 Spurs are averaging 189ppg total. As opposed to season average of 183ppg total.
If you honestly believe that the Spurs are going to allow the Mavs to dictate the pace of this game you are off your tree. They will play at their pace and they will try and slow this game down and grind down Dallas on every defensive possession. There wont be quick cuts in the lane for Dallas or easy un contested jumpers, there's going to be hands in the face, Duncan and Rasho in the lane and Finley locked down by last weeks Western Conf Player of the week Bruce Bowen.
On the flip side, I would normally back Spurs to win this game ATS (but everytime I've backed SPurs ATS this year they seem to find a way to fcuk me in the ass - houston/detroit games etc)
I like Spurs -8, but to have a line pitched at 199.5, thats just too high, way too high for a Spurs game. I believe this line is pitched 10points too high - it should be 189.5
In any case, stats and trends presented above, and if you just take the stats on their own, season averages and home/away trends give you better than 60-40 in favour of a Under total - and lets face it, this gambling lark is a 50-50 thing at the best of times anyway
So there it is - too much time on my hands; bets down,
Spurs-Mavs UNDER 199.5 -110
posted by tq
Jan. 14 2005 6:55am -
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Got Spurs -7.5 too and taking it to the bank
and doubling up on Spurs -6 (buying 1.5) & Under 199.5
Thats all my plays for today barring significant team news or shifts etc
all my moolah profit is down on Spurs Under (main play) and the rest is divided between Spurs ATS and Wash +1.5...
Hasta
TQ
posted by tq
Jan. 14 2005 7:29am -
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College Hoops: 2-1 (Wins on Memphis and Pacific, Loss on NC State)
NBA: 1-0 (Win on Lakers)
NBA:
Indiana +6
Charlotte +5.5
posted by kozzy
Jan. 14 2005 8:00am -
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Posted: Fri Jan 14, 2005 8:00 am Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
College Hoops: 2-1 (Wins on Memphis and Pacific, Loss on NC State)
NBA: 1-0 (Win on Lakers)
NBA:
Indiana +6
Charlotte +5.5
Adding:
Milwaukee -1
posted by kozzy
Jan. 14 2005 8:05am -
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Nice 2-0 night last night with Rockets under hitting even w/ OT and UCLA +7 winning outright, now 6-3 for YTD. Today for starters:
Pistons/Magic under 192
Wizzards +1
Waiting to see Clipper/Heat line, may add later. Best of luck to all
posted by luapssenmo
Jan. 14 2005 8:28am -
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"luapssenmo":hy1z4gup
Nice 2-0 night last night with Rockets under hitting even w/ OT and UCLA +7 winning outright, now 6-3 for YTD. Today for starters:
Pistons/Magic under 192
Wizzards +1
Waiting to see Clipper/Heat line, may add later. Best of luck to all
Adding Heat -5.5
posted by luapssenmo
Jan. 14 2005 10:48am -
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DALLAS +8.5
NEW ORLEANS +1
MINNESOTA +3.5
L.A. CLIPPERS +5.5
PHOENIX -6
Yesterday: 0-1
Loss:
UTAH
Season Record: 105-96-5 (52.24%)
GOOD LUCK!!!!!
Del-T
posted by jdelt88
Jan. 14 2005 12:02pm -
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NCAA Men's college Baskets
Horrible card today,where is the friday ivy,, only one game but I'll take a stab at it...
Loyola Md +3
NBA
Detriot Pistons -6.5
Posted Record
NFL (11-8 ) 58%,+2.2 units
NCAAFB (20-16) - 56%,+3.4 units,, till next year...
NBA (8-10) 44%, -2.2 units
NCAABB (29-22-1) 56%, +4.8 units
posted by slam
Jan. 14 2005 12:03pm -
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Blaaaaah on that over last night..now 30-9-1 on last 40 posted..
NBA
Dallas Mavs +8.5
Boston/Atlanta over 204
posted by mrwinstrol5
Jan. 14 2005 12:48pm -
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cbb record: 9-6 (1-0 last night on Arkansas-LR)
No posted plays for me today in college hoops...too small of a card!
Good Luck To All And To All A Good Night!
posted by fourthehardway4
Jan. 14 2005 12:57pm -
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What's up all. Finally the real playoffs start this weekend!!!
I wont' be near a computer tomorrow so I'll throw in my 2 picks right now for Saturday:
1. Rams ML +250 - Large play.
I've done my homework on this and most of the signs point to the Rams having the edge in most matchups here... I know the road playoff trends don't help here, but for +250 it's worth it.
2. Parlay Rams ML, Jets ML +400 - Small Play
I know the public loves the Steelers to smash the jets, and so do past road team trends... but again looking at match ups and keeping the turnovers down will give the jets a legitimate shot to win tomorrow! I wouldn't take the jets alone, but a small play is worth it to me because this payout is over 25:1 !!!! That's worth a small wager on two road teams!
GLTA
posted by tigertimsju
Jan. 14 2005 12:58pm -
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rough night fellas for me as i finished -1860 for the night. still up 2,240 for the week which is great don't get me wrong.
gonna pickride tonight since i'm don't consider myself to be an nba capper. its my worst sport of all actually. so i'll ride tonight but i think s.a. -8 is a good bet. actually i hit with lakers last night so maybe i should start this nba thing. lol
this weekend i'm on rams +7 1/2 for a dime.
risking 1,200 to win 1,000 as i bought a half a point. gl all and let's win some money.
posted by jtmoney16
Jan. 14 2005 2:19pm -
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Guys I really dunno how any of you like Mavs tonight! I know some cappers make a living out of picking against popular opinion picks, but this pick on the Spurs is solid. And it aint all that popular is would seem.
Anyway, to further help 'convince' you, I hope you have noted that Josh Howard hasnt travelled to San Antonio, so thats the Mavs #1 defensive player out (gotta laugh when I mention Dallas and Defence in the same breath) And his #2 is also out - Marquis Daniels
And,
their 'we cant have shaq so we'll take him instead' man (Eric Dampier) is going to be playing limited minutes tonight same as against Houston when he could only manage 19mins - which means Mr Shawn Bradley, tonights your night - how old are you? How are your knees tonight? have you seen the guy lately ? he's keeping some knee brace company in business...
So go ahead and pick Dallas whose idea of defence is thats its a rest period until it gets the ball back! and then they're going to expect to score at will against the Spurs - puleeease...
and one last thing...
"The Mavericks have had one of the cushiest schedules in recent memory. Since returning from a win at Denver on December 26, they have slept in their own beds for 18 straight nights, playing just five home games during that span. After Friday night's game at San Antonio, they return to Dallas for three more games at the American Airlines Center. That's one 65-minute flight in 25 days"
They been having it easy - time for a wake up call boys...
Spurs -8 & Under 199.5
posted by tq
Jan. 14 2005 2:53pm -
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I'm posting two for NBA.....
Agreed and pickriding Tqunber on the under San Antonio..it really looks like a great bet.
SA under 199 1/2 for 4 units
On sides...I'm rolling with Pistons - 6 1/2.
Good luck all, back with Mo Valley GOW on Saturday and two more college plays.
have a great week, good post on SA under tq..I agree completely.
posted by pc7588
Jan. 14 2005 4:32pm -
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adding 1 more to give 3 total plays...if I dont cash tonight I take a long break cause that loss last night really pissed me off
NBA
Dallas Mavs +8.5
Boston/Atlanta over 204
Milwaukee Bucks+1
peace
posted by mrwinstrol5
Jan. 14 2005 5:10pm -
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DBB:
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES-4 (bought1.5)
buying points for insurance but dont think it will be close
i see a 5 point gamer throughout then memphis pulls away in 4th and wins by10+
YTD
DBB 4-3
NBA 8-0
NCAAB 4-4
NFL 1-2
GOODLUCK TONIGHT$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
posted by gtnp
Jan. 14 2005 6:12pm -
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Taking Denver (-3.5) home vs the Wolves. Don't know what happened to the Wolves lately, but they are struggling big time. MN is 2-9 ATS last 11 and are 11-22-1 ATS for the year. MN is also 5-12-1 ATS on the road.
January record:
NBA 3-1
NFL 1-1
NCAA BB 1-0
Good luck everyone!!
posted by jernov99
Jan. 14 2005 6:32pm -
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all for 1 unit
Canisius -2.5
Toronto +5
Dallas +8.5
Pheonix -6
Pho OVER 211.5
SA UNDER 200
GLTA!!!!!!!!!!!
posted by phball101
Jan. 14 2005 7:25pm -
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I'm not doing so good...Flu again but the overs might hit quite a bit tonight...I'm going on key trends here so let's see what the trends spit out...Good luck.
NBA 7-13-1
BOS -9
DET OV 187
MIL OV 203 !!!
LAC OV 195 !!!
SEA OV 196
Peace out...
posted by wolfman
Jan. 14 2005 7:33pm -
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Hey fellas, posted plays 1-0 and now the bookies are the enemies and we are going for the kill! Nice win last night fellas with memphis blowing out marquette, now tonight i like New Orleands
YES thats right the woeful Hornets getting +1.5 to win outright vs the slumping blazers with an injured team. Goodluck play on New Orleans+1.5
posted by DeletedUser
Jan. 14 2005 7:59pm -
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NBA
LAC under 195
Den under 196
Sea under 197
YTD
NFL 2-1 +270
NCAAB 0-1 -100
NBA 0-0
posted by zachsdad3
Jan. 14 2005 10:02pm