This year, I look to exploit overreactions from the previous week, and I see a couple.

Mia +2.  Mia is 0-2. They lost ot NE and Hou, two of the best offences in the league.  And Cleve lost to Cinci, then defeated Indy soundly.  I think Mia is much better then the record and this line suggests.  Did I mention they have Brandon Marshall and Reggie Bush? I think what we can expect from Mia this year is they'll lose to good teams and beat the bad teams.  I like McCoy and the Brown's future. They're on the rise, but they're not yet a fav against an above average Mia team.

SF +1.5. See above. It's nice to see Andy Dalton playing well, but his SF secondary won't be as easy to beat as the Denver secondary.  SF is more well rounded and should win this game.

Minny +3.5. i got his at 4.5 earlier.  Ok, I like America's new darling Detroit too, but laying 4.5 (3.5 now) against McNab and Peterson on the road? Come'on man!  this line is definitely an overreaction line.

Hon mention:  I got Buff at +10 when it first came out. Now that it's a 7, it's no longer a rated play for me.  I see that NE has a great offence, but right now, the buff O is best in the league (I know it was against Oak and KC).  But, NE has a weak secondary and I expect Fitzy to throw some bombs to try to keep up with Brady and Co.