Hey Guys,

Here's another game worth a look in my opinion.  Need to be very careful with these high spread games as my numbers indicate that only 50% covered in the last 4 years.  I believe this is one of them.

Buffalo

This team got hit very hard by graduation this year. They only return 12 starters, 9 offensive (4 linemen) and 3 defensive (1 linemen).   

The offensive unit is experienced as they return 4 O-linemen. The good news is they return 92% of the total yards in personnel. The bad news is they only generated 14 ppg last year (ranked 120th - dead last).  They return starting QB, Davis who completed only 47% of his passes (16 TD/16 INT). The WR unit should be fine. The RB unit never found a leader - poor numbers. Overall, I expect a slight improvement in production from this offensive unit this year.  They can't get any worse, can they?

The defensive unit got hit very hard by graduation.  They only return 42% of their tackling yards in personnel.  They will be less experienced this year as they return 3 starters and only 2 of their top 10 tacklers. Not good news for this program since there defense was their strength in 2010. The D-line lost 3 starters and that spells big-time trouble. This is a major concern for Buffalo heading into this season.  Overall, I expect a huge drop in production this season. 

To sum it up - the Bulls will have some growing pains early in the year on defense and an offense searching for an identity.   I believe Buffalo will be a bottom feeder in the MAC Conference in 2011.

Pittsburgh

They return 14 starters, 6 offensive (3 linemen) and 8 defensive (3 linemen).   

In comes new coach, Todd Graham (from Tulsa - enough said).  This team will be different on offense as they transition to a spread formation. They return 68% of the total yards in personnel. They return starting QB, Sunseri who completed 65% of his passes (16 TD/9 INT).  The O-line returns 3 starters and this unit will improve on last year's numbers.  The RB unit looses their top player Lewis but RB, Graham returns and they should be fine.  The WR/TE units will improve under Graham.  A solid offensive line coupled with the experience at the QB position should help this team's confidence early in the year.  I expect an improvement in production from this offensive unit this year.

The defensive unit will be more experienced this year as they return 8 starters. They return 74% of their tackling yards in personnel which only allowed 19 ppg (ranked #15 in scoring defense). Their D-Line returns 3 starters.  The DBacks are loaded with experience and will improve on last year's numbers.  Overall, the defense is the strength of this team.

To sum it up - the Panthers will be transitioning on offense and should find their full identity mid way through the season.

Match-up

The Panthers and Graham will be very eager to being the new era of Panther ball.  It will be exciting that's for sure.  What better way to start than against the Bulls with that revamped defense that lost over 50% of their tacklers.  The Bulls defense will be searching for answers all game long.  I don't see Graham pulling the starters as this is an excellent tune-up game to smoothen out the wrinkles for the upcoming tougher competition. The Bulls offense will be more experienced but no such luck against this top notch defensive unit in Pittsburgh.  First year coaches love to make a statement in their first game for the loyal fans and the management who hired them.

To sum it up - Pittsburgh has a definite advantage on both sides of the ball in my opinion.  

Stats

Buffalo is 1-5 ATS as road dogs last year (20%)

Buffalo is 0-5 ATS L5 games as a dog > 10.5 (0%)

Buffalo is 1-6 ATS L7 games in Sept (14%)

Buffalo is 2-11 ATS L13 vs. Big East (15%)

Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS as a HF last year (75%)

Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS L5 at home  (80%)

Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS L5 games as a fav > 10.5 (80%)

Perfect KEY Stat - Buffalo is 0-12 ATS L12 SU losses (100%)> If they loose, they don't cover!!

Perfect KEY Stat - Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS L6 SU wins (100%)> If they win, they cover!!

To sum it up. I expect Buffalo to loose and loose ugly in this one. I'm betting that the Pittsburgh offense will entertain their fans with more points than they are accustom too.  They should control the line of scrimmage the entire game.  The Buffalo defense will wear down and we will get the points required for our easy cover!!

Line: Pittsburgh -29.5

Projected Score: Pittsburgh 51-10 (4* play) 

GL

Rockman