***Middle Tennessee State @ Purdue*** (5* Play)
Hi Guys,
It's almost time. Here is a game that has caught my interest. Feel free to provide any feedback. I would appreciate it.
Middle Tennessee State
Last year they returned 8 starters including their QB Dasher and finished 6-7. This team got hit very heavy by graduation this year. They only return 10 starters, 7 offensive (4 linemen) and 3 defensive (0 linemen). This is the fewest in the Sunbelt conference. Also, for a second straight season there will be changes in offensive and defensive co-ordinators.
The offensive unit is experienced as they return 4 O-line. But, they only return 50% of the total yards in personnel. The must also replace 3 year starter QB Dasher as well. The new QB Kilgore does have some experience but not as mobile as Dasher. The WR unit lost their top 2 WRs but should be fine. The RB unit lost their top RB Tanner to graduation. Overall, I expect a slight drop in production from this offensive unit this year.
The defensive unit got hit very hard by graduation. They only return 49% of their tackling yards in personnel. They will be less experienced this year as they return 3 starters. Not good news for this program. This unit gave up nearly 400 ypg and 28 ppg last year in the SBC. The D-line lost all 4 starters including Sunbelt Conference defensive player of the year, DE Lattimore. The is a major concern for MTS heading into this season. The Defensive backs unit has to replace their top 3 DB's and a drop off is unavoidable. Overall, I expect a huge drop in production this season.
To sum it up - the Raiders will have some growing pains early in the year on defense and an offensive searching for a new leader that will limit their ability to be competitive in the early part of their schedule. I believe MTS will be a middle of the pack Sunbelt Conference team in 2011.
Purdue
What can I say about Purdue. This team was hit with the injury bug from day one. A rash of injuries at the QB and RB positions took its toll on the Broilermakers in 2010. The good news is that a lot of young players were forced into action a year early which will pay off immediately in the 2011 season. Last year they returned 12 starters including their QB and finished 4-8 despite the injuries. This year they return 16 starters, 7 offensive (4 linemen) and 9 defensive (3 linemen).
The offensive unit is more experienced than last year. They return 61% of the total yards in personnel. The QB position is loaded with experience and should be one of the most improved QB position in the country. Both, QBs Henry and Marve are tested and will contribute immensely this year. The O-line return 4 starters including Kelly and Plue and this unit will improve on last year's numbers. The RB units loose their top 2 players but Bolden returns and they should be fine. The WR unit is more experienced this year and will improve. A solid offensive line coupled with the experience at the QB position should help this team's confident early in the year. I expect an improvement in production from this offensive unit this year.
The defensive unit will be more experienced this year as they return 9 starters. The return 84% of their tackling yards in personnel. Their D-Line returns 3 starters but will be down a bit with the loss of B10 DPOY, Kerrigan. The DBacks are loaded with experience and will improve on last year's numbers. Last year, this defense improved YPR from 4.4 to 3.6. Overall, the defense is the strength of this team and should improvement on last year's numbers.
To sum it up - the Broilermakers will be one of those teams that no one really looks at based on last year's dismal 0-6 record to finish the year. It was the injuries that really hurt this team last year and I believe this team will surprise many in 2011. There will be good value on this team early in the year until the public catches up. One of the 2011 sleeper teams imo.
Match-up
Purdue will be eager and itching to erase last year's horrid memories. I read that the Purdue defense was absolutely amazing and hunger during spring training. The same can't be said about MTS. Their defense will be searching for answers yearly on, not to mention the new defensive co-ordinator. Purdue's offense will be able to exploit the MTS defense all day long. The same can't be said about the MTS offense. To sum it up - Purdue has a definite advantage on both sides of the ball in my opinion.
Stats
MTS is 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in 1st games of the year L5 years (100%)
Purdue is 7-0 SU in season home openers (100%)
Perfect KEY Stat - MTS is 0-10 ATS L10 SU losses (100%)> If they loose, they don't cover!!
Stat Tightener - Last 4 years opening lines - FAV between 17 and 20 are 7-1-1 ATS (88%)!!
To sum it up. I expect MTS to loose and loose ugly in this one. I'm betting that the Purdue defense will be able to limit the MTS offense. They should control the line of scrimmage the entire game. The Purdue offense will wear down the less than experienced MTS defense and score the points required to get our easy cover!!
Projected Line: Purdue -18
Projected Score: Purdue 45-13 (5* play)
Lay the points with confidence.
GL,
Rockman
posted by rockman
8 replies
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1 likes
Guys,
I did a little further digging into the Purdue and Middle Tennessee State game.
CAMP REPORT - Coach, Danny Hope has talked since the spring of the probability of his team playing two quarterbacks this season by its own choosing. With senior QB, Robert Marve apparently coming along slowly in his arduous recovery from knee surgery, the Boilermaker coach said Saturday he's committed to rotating QBs even if Marve isn't ready come September. Sophomore QB, Rob Henry is the projected starter. He has playing experience in 2010 and is the most mobile and athletic of the three QBs. Henry can run and that's a huge plus against MTS as I will explain later. Junior QB, Caleb TerBush would stand to earn playing time since he adds another element to the offensive game plan. This kid has an arm and offers the deep threat to keep the defenses honest. The combination of the two is the perfect recipe.
As I mentioned already, Purdue should dominate on both sides of the ball. I looked at the projected starting offensive and defensive linemen in this match-up. This is key in my opinion.
Middle Tennessee State
OL averages 291 lbs.
DL averages 259 lbs.
Purdue
OL averages 315 lbs.
DL averages 271 lbs.
Purdue is predominantly a running team based on last year's statistics and MTS can't stop the run. Not only was MTS ranked 98th against the rush last year with one of the softest schedules, they lost all 4 DL and their defensive stud, Lattimore this year. The 4 new starters have 0 career starts. The DL is untested and very vulnerable against the run.
What does all this mean? This a basic handicapping 101.
Play on a team with a strong running game and an offensive line averaging 50+ pounds more per man than the opponent's defensive line - especially on a grass field. Quite simply, the bigger, stronger team should always be able to run at will and dominant their opponent as the game progresses. If a team can dominant on the ground, they should win convincingly. The opposing team will have to bring up its linebackers and secondary to stop the run, which should open up the pass. A powerful running team should control the game against a light, finesse defense - especially on a grass field, which helps to neutralize the smaller team's speed.
This is exactly what we have in the Purdue and Middle Tennessee State game. The Purdue offense will be on the field a lot pounding the ball and eventually wear down the smaller MTS defense. The holes will get larger and larger and the runs will come in chunks. The MTS offense is also a running team based on last year's statistics. Unfortunately, Purdue's strength is against the run and they return 9 defensive players including 3 linemen. MTS will not be able to generate 1st downs consistently. The size disparity and returning experience with the Boilermakers will be too much for this MTS team to overcome in this game.
By the way, did I mention that coach, Hope is in his 3rd year with a health group finally. This is the money year for most coaches!
Line: Purdue -18
Projected Score: Purdue 45-13
GL,
Rockman
posted by rockman
Aug. 16 2011 11:11am -
1 likes
BOOKED -16$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
WAS GETTING 19 BOUGHT 2 AND NEGOCIATED 1
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
posted by coolrick1
Aug. 16 2011 5:53pm -
0 likes
http://eye-on-collegefootball.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/24156338/31524356
posted by moneycanada
Aug. 24 2011 7:46pm -
0 likes
ouch
posted by ricky
Aug. 25 2011 10:49am -
0 likes
OUCH indeed!~
posted by close_call
Aug. 25 2011 11:07am -
0 likes
Guys,
Not to worry. The QB situation is not key in this game in my opinion.
Junior QB, Caleb TerBush should start along with QB, Robinson who had playing experience last year. Terbush has an arm and offers the deep threat to keep the defenses honest. Robinson is more of a running QB, so the combination is be fine.
My research as outlined above clearly shows that this game will be won in the trenches. Purdue's OL will dominate and RB, Bolten will have huge holes to exploit all day long. As long as the new QB combination doesn't turn the ball over we should be fine.
The defense game plan is the same. Nothing changes.
I expect the line to drop around 2 points which imo adds more value to this play.
Rockman
posted by rockman
Aug. 25 2011 2:06pm -
0 likes
I'm riding u hard on this ROCK! LETS DO THIS!!!$$$$
posted by moneybags82
Sept. 3 2011 1:39am -
0 likes
line dropped to 16.5 just like u said
posted by moneybags82
Sept. 3 2011 1:39am