Hi Guys,

This is a very interesting game.  This could be a BIG play!!

 Western Michigan

Last year they returned 11 starters (7 offensive & 4 defensive) including their QB Hiller and only managed a 5-7 season.  In 2010, they return 14 starters, 7 offensive (4 linemen) - but gone is QB Hiller and 7 defensive (1 linemen).

The offensive unit is less experienced and only returns 40% of the total yards this year. That's more than half their offensive output gone with a few key players.  In addition, they break in a new QB Carder playing his first game on the road. They lost their top RB West and lack experience at this position.  New QB & RB doesn't bode well for this offensive unit. Overall, I expect a drop in production from this offensive unit this year.

The defensive unit will be more experienced this year as they return 7 starters but do loose their top 2 tacklers.  Not sure if that is actually good news for this program.  This unit gave up over 420 ypg and 28 ppg last year.  Overall, I believe there is room for improvement from this group in 2010.

Michigan State

Last year was a rebuild year for the Spartans still searching for an identity and finishing with a 6-7 record.  In 2010, they return 13 starters, 7 offensive (2 linemen) - including the QB and 6 defensive (2 linemen).

The offensive unit is more experienced this year.  They have finally settled with QB Cousins who completed over 60% of his passes in 2009. QB Cousins has a year under his belt and should be one of the top QBs in the B10.  Returning is RB Legget and the remaining cast of RBs in 2010. They do loose their top WR White but have experience at the wide outs to compensate for his departure. Overall, I expect more production from this offensive unit this year.

The defensive line is also more experienced this year which should help improve the defensive backs play as well.  Overall, I believe there is room for improvement and expect a better performance from this group in 2010.

 Match-up

Last year these teams played and MSU won 49-14 as a 20 point favorite. Let's look at the numbers.  MSU had a total of 602 yards (383 pass + 219 rush) vs WMU had 211 yards (117 pass + 94 rush).  WMU was 0-13 on 3rd down efficiency last year and had difficulty moving the ball with consistency.  QB Cousins had a stellar performance going 22 of 25 (88%) for 353 yds.  MSU was leading 35-0 at half-time. The difference in 2010 will be a more experienced MSU team lead by a 2nd year QB Cousins who brings a ton of confidence into this game.  Can't say the same for WMU. They will be breaking in a new QB Carder on the road and without their top RB West.   

Stats

WMU has lost 15 straight road openers by an average of 24 ppg  (100%)

WMU is 2-7 su/ats L9 road games (22%)

WMU is 2-8 ats as RD L2 years  (20%)

WMU is 0-6 ats 1st 2 wks of season s/07 (0%)

WMU is 0-4 ats L4 vs non-conf opponents (0%)

WMU is 2-5 ats L7 vs B10 (29%)

WMU is 14-54 ats L68 SU losses (21%)

Perfect KEY Stat - WMU is 0-17 ats L17 SU losses (100%) > If they loose - they don't cover!

To sum it up.  I expect much of the same thing this time around.  This game will get ugly from the beginning as WMU will not have an answer for the Spartans offense. QB Cousins could surpass last year's output.  I expect WMU will struggle to move the ball with any level of consistency in this rematch. I can't see WMU scoring much more than 10 points in this rematch.  And finally, let's hope that WMU holds true to form in these early September road non-conference games.  This game will get ugly imo.

Opening Line:  MSU -21

Projected Score:  MSU 52-10

Lay the points with confidence.  

 GL,

Rockman