It's desperation time for the Chiefs and the last team they want to pay a visit

is the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. If the Chiefs are to scratch

their way back into the playoffs, they need to come up with a momentous win over

New England on Monday Night Football and use it as a springboard to a

second-half run.

While their offense continues to move the ball with good success, the defense

hasn't made many improvements and the team still is missing the return element

that it had in 2003 with Dante Hall. If it has any prayer of beating the

league's most intelligent and disciplined team this week, Kansas City must cut

down on the turnovers and penalties, as it has given the ball away 15 times and

ranks third to last in the NFL with 73 total penalties.

When the Patriots have the ball

Rushing: As has been the case under head coach Bill Belichick and offensive

coordinator Charlie Weis, the Patriots continue to play to their strengths. With

so many injuries at wide receiver and with so much overall inconsistency in the

passing game, the Patriots have elected to ground their attack for the most part

of this season.

RB Corey Dillon has carried a bigger load than expected and the team is also

getting third down back Kevin Faulk, who rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries last

week, involved more as a change-of-pace runner. The Patriots know they have to

run the football successfully in a hostile environment again this week, which is

why Dillon should expect another heavy load as the primary ball carrier.

The Patriots don't have great size or athleticism along their offensive line,

but the unit is as well coached and efficient as there is in the NFL. OG's Joe

Andruzzi and Steve Neal are prime examples, as neither has great physical tools

but both should use their technique, quickness and toughness to execute against

Kansas City's underachieving DT tandem of Ryan Sims and John Browning.

If OC Dan Koppen is freed up to release on a consistent basis, it will give the

Patriots a huge advantage on that side of the ball, as MLB Monty Beisel

struggles to get through blocks.

Passing: As mentioned, the Patriots passing attack has taken a backseat to the

run, but its effectiveness and purpose should not be overlooked. QB Tom Brady

doesn't have the depth of weapons that he has had in the past but his ability to

spread the ball around and to find the individual matchups that best favor his

unit is almost unparalleled.

Last week, for example, the Patriots threw the ball 10 fewer times than they ran

it, but Brady completed 19 passes to 10 different receivers and also converted

on two touchdown throws -- one of which was for 47 yards when he spotted a

mismatch against the Bills' secondary.

The Chiefs' have shown an improvement when it comes to applying pressure on

opposing quarterbacks. They sacked Saints' QB Aaron Brooks four times last week

and they also have the athletic advantage up front to get consistent pressure on

Brady. The problem, however, is that the Patriots consistently do a great job of

protecting Brady from vulnerable situations. They rarely use seven-step drops

and, when they do, they will use max-protection blocking schemes to give him

extra time to throw.

More often than not, the Patriots will use three-and-five step drops and a good

deal of screens to wide receivers, running backs and tight ends in order to

catch opponents out of position. With Shawn Barber, the Chiefs' most athletic

linebacker, out for the season and with DS's Greg Wesley and Jerome Woods

continuing to give up too many plays in the vertical passing game, the Chiefs

don't match up quite as well as it originally appears against the Patriots'

hobbled passing attack.

When the Chiefs have the ball

Rushing: The Chiefs' best chance of beating the Patriots lies in their ability

to establish a strong running attack. That's why they need RB Priest Holmes to

return so badly. Backup RB Derrick Blaylock is a shifty speedster who has

flashed a lot of big play ability and gave the Chiefs all they needed in terms

of rushing yards with 186 against the Saints last week, but Blaylock doesn't

provide the power that Holmes does, nor does he provide the versatility as a

receiver.

The Patriots have had their biggest problems on defense against opponents that

lined up and were able to overpower them with a strong commitment to the running

game. The Steelers are the most obvious example in New England's only loss of

the season, but the Bills in Week 3 and the Colts in Week 1 are two other

examples. The last two weeks the Patriots have done an excellent job of keeping

RB's Marshall Faulk (Rams) and Willis McGahee (Bills) in check, but they'll get

their toughest test since the Steelers' loss if Holmes is healthy enough to play

and carry a solid load.

One of the reasons for the Patriots recent success versus the run has been the

improved discipline of NT Vince Wilfork and LDE Ty Warren. Both youngsters have

seemingly grasped the concept of gap-control and are playing with a lot more

consistency, as a result. The problem the Patriots might have, however, is that

the Chiefs simply outclass them up front.

If OC Casey Wiegmann and ROG Will Shields can control Wilfork and Warren,

respectively, it will free others up to get bodies on ILB's Tedy Bruschi and Ted

Johnson, which was the problem earlier in the season.

Passing: QB Trent Green seems to be as efficient as ever for approximately 90

percent of games when studying him on film but then he'll force two or three

throws that make you scratch your head. Last week, for example, he completed

66.7 percent of his passes for 311 yards but threw two interceptions, one of

which came on the Saints 17-yard line with under a minute remaining in the game.

Outside of establishing a clock-guzzling running attack, the biggest key for

Kansas City's offense will be to cut down on mistakes. The Patriots have

potential weaknesses up front versus the run and are hobbled at cornerback but

they make fewer mistakes than any other team in the NFL. If Green doesn't do a

better job of protecting the football and if the offense, as a whole, doesn't

improve on its amount of penalties, the Chiefs have no chance of beating New

England.

From a matchup standpoint, the Chiefs do stack up well in the passing game,

especially if they can keep the Patriots honest with the run first. The presence

of Holmes will make defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel reluctant to blitz his

outside linebackers -- Mike Vrabel and Willie McGinest -- as much as he would

like. TE Tony Gonzalez also will put pressure on Crennel to play conservatively

with SS Rodney Harrison.

The Chiefs don't have great speed at receiver with Eddie Kennison and Johnnie

Morton, but Kennison is having an outstanding season and continues to find ways

to get open vertically. Both veteran receivers should do a good job of finding

soft spots in the Patriots zone coverage. There's a good chance that both

Patriots' starting cornerbacks, Ty Law and Tyrone Poole, won't be in the lineup

again, so protecting Green and generating some one-on-one matchups on the

perimeter against fill-in DC's Earthwind Moreland and Randall Gay will be

crucial to the Chiefs' offensive success.

Scouts' Edge

Monday Night Football has the potential to turn into a shootout. Both teams will

look to establish strong running games at first, but mismatches in the passing

game will become enticing.

The Patriots have been riding Dillon for most of the season when healthy and

they'll do so again on Monday night, but Brady also will have some opportunities

to exploit the Chiefs secondary when it becomes overaggressive in run support.

For the Chiefs, the versatility of their skill players should cause the

Patriots' hobbled secondary problems.

The Chiefs have a terrific built-in advantage of playing at home in one of the

loudest venues in the NFL on MNF, but that won't be enough. Their inconsistency,

mental breakdowns and inability to protect the football will eventually be fatal

against a Patriots team that has endured several more injuries and is not quite

as talented from top-to-bottom, but makes far fewer mistakes.

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Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's

matchup between the Patriots and Chiefs. Now they're back with a second look.

As a result of a multitude of injuries at wide receiver, tight end and offensive

tackle, the Patriots have had no choice but to turn the brunt of the offensive

load over to RB Corey Dillon. In fact, the only game that the Patriots have lost

all season (Pittsburgh) came when Dillon was unable to play because of injury.

QB Tom Brady has been without one of Deion Branch, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk or

Dillon in each game this season. However, with Branch returning on Monday night,

the Patriots will be as close to full strength on offense as they have been in

2004.

With the most depth the team has had at wide receiver all season long, the

Patriots' offense could have a new look. Branch will likely start on the outside

opposite David Givens, which still leaves David Patten, Brown and Bethel Johnson

as options in three, four, and even five-receiver sets.

Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is notorious for making drastic game-plan

changes from week-to-week. Against a Chiefs defense that lacks great coverage

skills at safety, has poor depth at cornerback and doesn't do a good job of

rushing the quarterback with its front four, it would make all the sense in the

world for Weis to open up the offense this week after he's been overly

conservative due to the past injuries this season.

Rookie TE Ben Watson was lost for the season, but the Patriots are still more

than solid at tight end with Daniel Graham and Christian Fauria. Graham and

Fauria are better blockers than receivers, but with their receiving corps

starting to heel, the Patriots can overcome the problem in the passing game by

using more multi-receiver sets.

The right side of the Patriots' offensive line is not very good in terms of its

athleticism. OG Steve Neal lacks quick feet and Brandon Gorin is inexperienced

with just decent mobility. Neither player is particularly solid when it comes to

pass protection and they're inexperience playing together makes them a target

for blitzes and stunts.

The problem the Chiefs have is that neither LDE Eric Hicks nor LDT Ryan Sims has

been making big plays this season, as the two have combined for just four sacks

in nine games. One way defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham can exploit the

Patriots' weakness is to use Hicks and Sims on a lot of stunts that will test

Neal and Gorin's communication with one another. The other is to get linebackers

and safeties more involved in the blitz. Regardless, Cunningham must find a way

to get more pressure this week against Brady, who will pick the Chiefs'

secondary apart if he has the time.

The injuries in the Patriots secondary should finally catch up with them this

week. The Patriots will once again be without starting DC's Tyrone Poole and Ty

Law. Asante Samuel and rookie Randall Gay are likely to be the starters. Samuel

is also bothered by a shoulder injury and did not play last week, so his

durability on Monday night is in question.

With WR's Eddie Kennison and Johnnie Morton working the youngsters on the

perimeter and TE Tony Gonzalez requiring safety attention down the middle, the

Patriots secondary will be up against a stiff challenge. The Chiefs are also

wise enough to realize that they'll have a huge mismatch in the slot with Dante

Hall working against another rookie cornerback, Earthwind Moreland.

By spreading the Patriots out with a lot of three-receiver sets and Gonzalez

"flexed" out as another slot receiver, the Chiefs will not only put pressure on

the Patriots' secondary in coverage but they'll also effectively limit SS Rodney

Harrison's role as an extra linebacker in "the box" in run support.

RB Priest Holmes will miss a second consecutive game with a strained MCL.

Derrick Blaylock, Holmes' replacement, rushed for 186 yards last week. While

Blaylock is a huge threat in the open field because of his speed and

elusiveness, he's still not a reliable receiver. That will hurt Kansas City in

this game. The Patriots have been much tougher versus the run recently but, as

mentioned, are vulnerable versus the pass because of their injuries.

As a result, the Chiefs are likely to throw a lot more than they run on Monday

night, which won't play to Blaylock's strength. If Holmes were healthy and in

the lineup, he would provide the Chiefs with an added element that could become

too much for the hobbled Patriots' defense to handle. Without Holmes to worry

about, the Patriots can give Kennison, Morton and Gonzalez more attention within

their back seven zone-coverage schemes.

Special Teams

It's not going to help matters that the Chiefs are out-classed in terms of

talent and experience in the kicking game. PT Steve Cheek is averaging 42.5

yards per attempt but he's a rookie that has struggled with his accuracy and

ability to pin opponents' deep. PK Lawrence Tynes is also a rookie. Tynes has

been perfect from within 40 yards but he has missed three-of-six field goal

attempts from beyond that point.

PT Josh Miller and PK Adam Vinatieri give the Patriots a terrific advantage

here. Miller is a very reliable directional punter who is averaging 45.4 yards

per attempt and Vinatieri, who is 23-of-24 on FGA's, remains among the league's

elite.

Another reason for the Chiefs' failure to live up to expectations this season

has been the disappointing play of RS Dante Hall. Hall did have a 63-yard

kickoff return against the Saints last week but overall on the season he's

averaged 22.1 yards per kickoff return. He has been solid on punt returns with

an average of 13.1 yards per attempt but he has failed to return a punt -- or

kickoff for that matter -- for a touchdown this year after returning four for

scores last season.

Prediction: Patriots 29, Chiefs 27