"Pinnacle Lean"
This was a bit confusing to me in the beginning when trying to apply it towards the Dal/MIN game, but after looking into it more carefully I think I have it right.
Per Simon Noble from Pinnacle, "If the market has the Colts at -14 -110 while we have it at -14 -111 following a 7 cent move, it’s a strong indication that: a) the Colts are the right side; and b) the market will creep up to -14.5 (or higher)". Pinnacle currently has Minnesota at -2.5/-112, so initially I started to thinking that the Pinnacle Lean is on the Vikings making them the likely pick by the sharps.
The mistake I made was that the Pinnacle Lean applies only if the other books have the line at -2.5/-110, which isn't the case at all. As a matter of fact, the most of the books have the line at -2.5/-120 or higher, which then should mean that the Pinnacle lean is on Dallas. Am I wrong thinking this?
Whether I'm interpreting this all wrong or not, 5 dimes on Dallas -3/-115. See if I end up pulling my hairs out later this afternoon.
If anyone fully understands the "Pinnacle Lean" and I'm wrong in my interpretation, please let me know ASAP. TIA
posted by jkecc
2 replies
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0 likes
BRO IMO YOU DO THIS FOR LIFE TIME OR DONT DO THIS AT ALL
YOU NEED A BANK $$$$$ FIRST TO DO RESEARCH EXCEPT LOSS
IN THE BIGINING AND IF YOU UNDERSTAND THAT YOU ARE TO MAKE $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$THEN EXCELLENT OR BAD INVESTMENT
posted by coolrick1
Jan. 18 2010 5:22pm -
0 likes
Bro,
Your analysis on the Pinnacle lean is one of many ways to interpret line movements and what they mean. What you are seeing is the "Media Lean". A majority of weekend betters bet with their ears i.e. NFL Live, Jim Rome, Sirrus NFL Radio etc.. and allow the network analysts manipulate one's impulsive lean...The danger in this strategy is that it is a widespread popular belief in bettors, which often leads to a snowball effect, ...and if sucessful, dangerously re-confirms the coincidence. If the wager was not successful, there is always an excuse i.e. "The team got off to a rough start" or "the coach didn't stick to the game plan" etc..
The best way to predict a NFL playoff game (except for the flip of a coin), is to consider the turnover ratio, points scored off turnovers, and a team's rushing offense Vs. the opponents rush defense.
For this reason, the following wager is considered "Bank"
- Jets plus 8 Vs. Colts
posted by lusaka
Jan. 19 2010 3:57pm