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monday nite insights

The Eagles' biggest weakness as a team is stopping the run on defense. That has

been the case for the past few seasons, as coordinator Jim Johnson's unit

allowed 4.49 yards per carry in 2003 and 4.26 yards per carry in 2002, but it

got exposed even more than usual against the Steelers last week, allowing 252

yards on the ground. But can the Cowboys expose this weakness enough to pull off

the home upset against NFC East rival Philadelphia?

Two weeks ago against the Lions, RB Eddie George rushed for 99 yards on 31

carries, but last week he was held to just 23 yards on eight carries. If the

Cowboys don't stay more disciplined with the run and get George 20-plus carries

in this game, it will lead to a fifth loss in the last six games.

When the Eagles have the ball

Rushing: The Cowboys' front-four continues to get solid penetration, especially

from the right side with DE Greg Ellis and La'Roi Glover. It also has the

athleticism at linebacker with MLB Dat Nguyen and WLB Dexter Coakley to pursue

RB Brian Westbrook from sideline-to-sideline. The problem, however, is that this

unit gives up too many big plays when it gets caught over-pursuing and it also

is an undersized group that wears down when the offense forces it to stay on the

field too long.

The Eagles will look to use a lot of three-receiver sets and to throw the ball

early on in order to loosen things up for the running game. When the Eagles do

run, they'll look to get Westbrook back to his normal versatile role within the

offense. Last week when the Eagles got down by three touchdowns to the Steelers

early on, it really negated the running game. The plan this week will be to use

more balance but also to get Westbrook involved on a lot of screens, draws and

counter-type runs in order to catch the Cowboys blitzing or over-pursuing in

their one-gap scheme.

Passing: The best way to run the football versus the Cowboy defense is to loosen

it up with the pass first, which is why we expect the Eagles to come out

throwing. By spreading the field with many multiple receiver sets, it forces the

Cowboys to move to nickel and dime packages because they simply lack the cover

skills at safety and quality depth at cornerback to stay in their base personnel

groupings.

Coordinator Mike Zimmer's defensive scheme is predicated on aggressiveness,

which is made possible by cornerbacks that can cover one-on-one. While LDC

Terence Newman has shown flashes and continues to develop, he is still too

inconsistent. The team also lacks quality cover skills at RDC with Tyrone

Williams and nickel DC Jacques Reeves to hold up in single-coverage against the

Eagles' top-three receivers, Terrell Owens, Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell,

which is why DS's Roy Williams and Tony Dixon will need to be a lot more

involved in two-deep coverage than Zimmer would like. The biggest mismatches are

actually Owens versus Williams and Mitchell versus the rookie Reeves.

Out of fear of giving up more big plays, look for the Cowboys to be conservative

with their safeties, especially on obvious passing downs. Not only will that

lead to better running opportunities for Westbrook but it also will limit the

amount of blitzing that the Cowboys can do. Knowing that they'll have to count

on SLB Al Singleton to cover TE Chad Lewis and Coakley or Nguyen to match up

with Westbrook out of the backfield, the Cowboys will be stuck relying on their

front four to rush QB Donovan McNabb throughout most of this game.

Considering McNabb's mobility and the fact that the starting four defensive

linemen for the Cowboys -- Ellis, Glover, Leonardo Carson and Marcellus Wiley --

have combined for just nine sacks on the season, the Eagles should feel good

about pass protection in this game.

When the Cowboys have the ball

Rushing: This is where the Cowboys really squander an opportunity to exploit a

glaring weakness of the Eagles. Philadelphia, as a result of its overaggressive

scheme and undersized personnel, is susceptible to the power running game.

Opposing offenses that have patience with their running attack and have backs

with enough physical tools and stamina to shoulder a heavy load -- such as the

Steelers last week and the Browns three weeks ago -- can really dictate the

tempo of a football game versus this Eagles' defense.

The Eagles will make some big plays in the backfield because of how athletic

they are up front, much they blitz and how aggressive they play with DS's

Michael Lewis and Brian Dawkins, but they also give up a lot of big play because

they'll get caught out of position when trying too hard to get penetration and

they'll often have a minimal second-line of defense to make up for it.

The problem that the Cowboys will have in this game is that they lack the

premier back to pound it away versus this undersized unit. George has shown very

little ability to handle a complete load this season and, even when he had 99

rushing yards against the Lions two weeks ago, he still only averaged 3.2 yards

per carry.

The bottom line is that George lacks the burst, elusiveness and acceleration

skills to exploit this Eagles defense for its inconsistency versus the run. RB

ReShard Lee and FB Richie Anderson, who combined for 68 yards on 16 carries last

week, aren't the answers either.

Passing: QB Vinny Testaverde was one of the most consistent performers on the

Dallas offense for much of the first half of the season but he's coming off his

worst game-to-date against the Bengals and it's hard to to wonder if things will

only get worse from here on out.

For starters, his only consistent receiver has been TE Jason Witten. WR Keyshawn

Johnson simply isn't separating from defenders like he once did and he's never

going to be a huge matchup threat that demands double-team attention. With Terry

Glenn out and Quincy Morgan slowly adjusting to the new scheme, Testaverde not

only lacks the speed he needs on the perimeter to stretch things out, but he

also lacks the timing that he once had when Glenn was in the lineup and Antonio

Bryant (Browns) was still with the team.

Making matters worse this week could be the attacking scheme of the Eagles. With

very minimal threat of a vertical attack, coordinator Jim Johnson won't be

afraid to put his cornerbacks on islands and utilize a lot of different blitz

schemes with safeties Lewis and Dawkins getting involved either on the blitz or

as linebackers filling in the vacated zones underneath for blitzing linebackers.

No matter how it plays out, look for Johnson to attack the right side of the

Cowboy's offensive line.

ROG Andre Gurode and ROT Torrin Tucker are already in over their respective

heads in man-to-man matchups against LDT Corey Simon and LDE Jevon Kearse, so

adding extra blitz pressure in those gaps should lead to a multitude of

assignment problems for the Cowboys pass protection scheme.

Scouts' Edge

Things are bad in the "Big D" right now and they'll only get worse when an

ornery Eagles team visits town. The Eagles were exposed for their inability to

defend the run last week against the Steelers, but the Cowboys' running attack

ranks among the worst in the NFL.

The team lacks a premier running back, as George no longer can wear a unit down

like Jerome Bettis did to the Eagles last week, and he lacks the burst to pick

up big chunks of yardage like Browns' RB's Lee Suggs and William Green did to

the Eagles' defense a few weeks back.

With limited weapons to throw to and under heavy duress, Testaverde could

struggle again this week. If the Eagles' offense can capitalize on some short

fields early on and continue to take advantage of their mismatches on the

perimeter in the passing game throughout, they should have this game in control

by midway through the third quarter.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tuesday, our scouts filed their advance advance scouting report on this week's

matchup between the Eagles and Cowboys. Now they're back with a second look.

With WR Terry Glenn out and against an Eagles run defense that has been exposed

for its lack of size and inconsistent tackling, the Cowboys would like to rely

heavily on their running attack. The problem is they lack the running back to do

so.

Dallas has tried to get Richie Anderson (10 carries last week) more involved as

a ball carrier. He is a tough runner but doesn't provide much more burst or

breakaway speed than Eddie George, who is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on

the season.

The one boost the Cowboys do receive this week is the healthy return of WR

Quincy Morgan, who has missed the last two games because of a lingering

hamstring strain. Morgan obviously lacks a great feel for the offense and timing

with QB Vinny Testaverde after coming to Dallas via a trade with the Browns, but

he does have the speed that the Cowboys have desperately missed with he and

Glenn out of the lineup. Against an Eagles defense that will leave CBs Sheldon

Brown and Lito Sheppard on islands in man-coverage about one-half of the time,

Morgan must provide some big plays as a vertical receiver.

The biggest mismatch to monitor when the Cowboys have the ball is that of ROT

Torrin Tucker versus LDE Jevon Kearse. Tucker continues to improve with more

starting experience and he's developed into a solid run blocker, but his lack of

initial quickness and overall athleticism will put him at a huge disadvantage

against Kearse. In order to fully exploit that mismatch, look for defensive

coordinator Jim Johnson to attack that side of the Cowboys' offensive line with

a lot of blitzes from different directions.

Not only will he use his linebackers to attack the "B", "C" and "D" gaps on that

side, but he'll also get Sheppard and safeties Michael Lewis and Brian Dawkins

involved from time-to-time. With two relatively inexperienced and non-athletic

linemen (Tucker and OG Andre Gurode) on the right side of their offensive line,

this could be a huge problem for the Cowboys when it comes to protecting

Testaverde.

On defense, the Cowboys match up well versus the Eagles' tight ends and running

backs in coverage. Offensive coordinator Brad Childress does a fantastic job of

creating mismatches with RB Brian Westbrook and TEs Chad Lewis and L.J. Smith on

a weekly basis, but he'll have a difficult time getting those guys open on

Monday night. For starters, Smith is still hobbled and had only one catch for 10

yards last week. Dallas SS Roy Williams should be able to take one of the tight

ends out of the game in man-coverage, and MLB Dat Nguyen and WLB Dexter Coakley

have the athleticism to keep Westbrook and the other tight end in check.

While the Cowboys match up well against Philadelphia's backs and tight ends, the

same can't be said on the perimeter, where WRs Terrell Owens, Todd Pinkston and

Freddie Mitchell will create a lot of problems for the Dallas secondary. LCB

Terence Newman has the man-to-man coverage skills to keep Pinkston in check

one-on-one, but the Cowboys are in way over their heads on the other side of the

field.

Dallas RCB Tyrone Williams is questionable to play because of a hamstring

injury. If he can't go, the Cowboys will be stuck with rookie Jacques Reeves on

Owens and rookie Nathan Jones on Mitchell. If he can go, the Cowboys are still

at a huge disadvantage with a hobbled Williams on Owens and Reeves on Mitchell.

As a result of those potential mismatches, look for the Eagles to predominantly

use three-receiver sets on offense. One way Childress likes to create headaches

for opposing defenses is to use Pinkston and Mitchell on the same side opposite

Owens. In doing so, it really can spread opponents out.

The Cowboys will have to at least roll FS Tony Dixon over to Owens' side to give

his cornerback deep support, which leaves man-to-man matchups for Pinkston and

Mitchell to exploit on the opposite side. If Dallas gives Owens the amount of

attention that he deserves with a rolled safety and a cheated OLB outside of the

box in order to take away Owens' quick-slant potential, it should generate a lot

of room for Westbrook to operate on the ground. If not, Owens will

single-handedly take over this game for the Eagles.

Special Teams

You wouldn't know it by the lack of big-name players, but the Eagles' special

teams play has been outstanding so far this season. PT Dirk Johnson has been

outstanding with a 44.2 yard per punt average and PK David Akers has connected

19 of 22 field goal attempts.

The one big question, however, is whether J.R. Reed will be able to return

kickoffs for the Eagles this Sunday. He missed last week's game versus

Pittsburgh because of a hamstring injury and is likely to be a game-time

decision on Monday night. Reed has been one of the most explosive kickoff return

specialists in the NFL as a rookie this season, averaging 25.5 yards per

attempt. Without him, the Eagles aver very average at the position with Roderick

Hood and Dexter Wynn likely to share the duties again this week.

If there's a unit that has been uninspiring for the Eagles' special teams, it is

the punt return group, as Reno Mahe is averaging just 5.6 yards per return and

shows very minimal explosive potential.

In contrast, Dallas' special teams have been just average. PT Mat McBriar has a

big leg and a lot of potential, but he's averaging just 41.2 yards per attempt

as a rookie this season and has been very inconsistent. PK Billy Cundiff has

done a reliable job, connecting on 9 of 11 FGAs with a long of 47 yards.

The return game has had its ups and downs, but if Reed doesn't play the Cowboys

might actually have a slight advantage here. Dedric Ward, who is expected back

this week after being inactive for last week's game, is reliable and has

averaged a respectable 8.1yards per punt return, while ReShard Lee has also been

solid with a 22-yard per kickoff return average.

phantom

posted by phantom

Nov. 15 2004 6:40pm

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