2009 BOWL SYSTEM
Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs (remember this is by ranking ... not actual %)
2007: 11-1
2008: 12-5
(23-6 79%)
Opening lines and Plays for 2009
Dec. 19
New Mexico Bowl - Wyoming +10.5
St Petes Bowl - Central FL +2.5
Dec. 22
Las Vegas Bowl - Oregon St -1.5
Dec. 23
Poinsettia Bowl - California -3
Dec. 24
Hawaii Bowl - Nevada -14
Dec. 29
Champs Sports Bowl - Miami FL -2
Dec. 31
Texas Bowl - Missouri
Armed Forces Bowl - Air Force +5
Jan. 1
Capital One Bowl - LSU +2.5
Sugar Bowl - Florida -10
Jan. 2
International Bowl - South Florida -6
Liberty Bowl - Arkansas -7.5
Jan. 4
Fiesta Bowl - TCU -7
Jan. 6
GMAC Bowl - Troy +4
goodluckfellas!
posted by phantom
13 replies
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UPDATED 12-14-09
Due to the results of the Army/Navy game....the bowl system plays changed:
Updated games to play:
Dec 19 Central Florida +2.5
Dec 19 Wyoming +12
Dec 22 Oregon State -2
Dec 23 California -3
Dec 24 Nevada -14
Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
Dec 31 Air Force +5
Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
Jan 1 LSU +3
Jan 2 Arkansas -8
Jan 2 South Florida -6
Jan 4 TCU -7
Jan 6 Troy +4
goodluckfellas!posted by phantom
Dec. 14 2009 2:03pm -
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note:
added: oregon
deleted: florida
fyi
posted by phantom
Dec. 14 2009 2:11pm -
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Does Troy qualify? SOS is lower than Central Michigan.
posted by drtnapper07
Dec. 14 2009 5:29pm -
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Also - Central Florida looks to be an issue.
posted by drtnapper07
Dec. 14 2009 5:34pm -
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as far as I see:
Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS)
Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS) posted by phantom
Dec. 14 2009 6:04pm -
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As I understand the criteria, and I may be wrong here, there are two games that shouldn't apply (with reason in parens):
Central Florida (Rutgers is in the Sagarin Top 60 with SOS 85 - would otherwise mean fade - but Central Florida, not in the Sagarin Top 60, has worse SOS at 91)
Troy (Central Mich is in the Sagarin Top 60 with SOS 107 - would otherwise mean fade - but Troy, not in the Sagarin Top 60, has worse SOS 110)
posted by lump
Dec. 14 2009 6:16pm -
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Perhpas we have a data source issue (although I may be reading the wrong column). I'm using the following source: http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm
posted by lump
Dec. 14 2009 6:19pm -
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It does look like we have differing data. My Sagarin link from USA Today -
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm
shows the same as you lump -
Troy #69 (SOS #110) - Central Michigan #38 (SOS #110) and
CFU #62 (SOS #91) - Rutgers #52 (SOS #85)
posted by drtnapper07
Dec. 14 2009 7:47pm -
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Oops - Correction -
Troy #69 (SOS #110) - Central Michigan #38 (SOS #107)
posted by drtnapper07
Dec. 14 2009 7:48pm -
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THANKS! for the heads up on those.
here are the updated plays.
Dec 19 Rutgers -2.5
Dec 19 Wyoming +12
Dec 22 Oregon State -2
Dec 23 California -3
Dec 24 Nevada -14
Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
Dec 31 Air Force +5
Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
Jan 1 LSU +3
Jan 2 Arkansas -8
Jan 4 TCU -7
Jan 6 Central Michigan -4
Here are the one's in question:
52 Rutgers (85) vs 62 Central Florida (91)
- Rutgers is in the top 60.
- You are suppose to fade Rutgers ... UNLESS they are playing another team whose SOS is higher (which Central Florida's is) ... making Rutgers the play
56 Nevada (86) vs 89 SMU (94)
- Nevada is in the top 60.
- You are suppose to fade them ... UNLESS they are playing another team whose SOS is higher (which SMU's is) ... making Nevada the play
46 Houston (92) vs 55 Air Force (89)
- Both teams are in the top 60
- You fade the team with the worse SOS ... meaning Air Force is the play
38 Central Michigan (107) vs 69 Troy (110)
- Central Michigan is in the top 60
- You are suppose to fade them, UNLESS they are playing another team whose SOS is higher (which Troy's is) ... making Central Michigan the play
* Obviously those four games are very close, but it is part of the system.
** Even though some of the numbers might change during bowls ... it will not matter. You are suppose to use the end of season numbers and post season is not included.posted by phantom
Dec. 15 2009 12:20am -
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be careful with Nevada. I hear their running back, Lippencot (sp?) is out for the bowl game. He was a very good part of their offense this year.
fyi
posted by phantom
Dec. 15 2009 12:21am -
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Thanks for updating Phantom - This system does have previous sucess - Let's roll!
posted by drtnapper07
Dec. 17 2009 5:10pm -
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here are the updated plays.
Dec 19 Rutgers -2.5 ------WIN
Dec 19 Wyoming +12 -----WIN
Dec 22 Oregon State -2
Dec 23 California -3
Dec 24 Nevada -14
Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
Dec 31 Air Force +5
Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
Jan 1 LSU +3
Jan 2 Arkansas -8
Jan 4 TCU -7
Jan 6 Central Michigan -4keep'n an eye on these.
posted by phantom
Dec. 20 2009 1:20pm
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