13 replies:

1. UPDATED 12-14-09

   Due to the results of the Army/Navy game....the bowl system plays changed:

   Updated games to play:

   Dec 19 Central Florida +2.5
   Dec 19 Wyoming +12
   Dec 22 Oregon State -2
   Dec 23 California -3
   Dec 24 Nevada -14
   Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
   Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
   Dec 31 Air Force +5
   Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
   Jan 1 LSU +3
   Jan 2 Arkansas -8
   Jan 2 South Florida -6
   Jan 4 TCU -7
   Jan 6 Troy +4
   
   
   goodluckfellas!

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 14, 2009 2:03pm
2. note:

   added: oregon

   deleted: florida

    

   fyi

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 14, 2009 2:11pm
3. Does Troy qualify? SOS is lower than Central Michigan.

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   Dec. 14, 2009 5:29pm
4. Also - Central Florida looks to be an issue.

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   Dec. 14, 2009 5:34pm
5. as far as I see:

   Troy (69, 106 SOS) over Central Michigan (38, 111 SOS) Central Florida (61, 85 SOS) over Rutgers (52, 100 SOS)

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 14, 2009 6:04pm
6. As I understand the criteria, and I may be wrong here, there are two games that shouldn't apply (with reason in parens):

   Central Florida (Rutgers is in the Sagarin Top 60 with SOS 85 - would otherwise mean fade - but Central Florida, not in the Sagarin Top 60, has worse SOS at 91)

   Troy (Central Mich is in the Sagarin Top 60 with SOS 107 - would otherwise mean fade - but Troy, not in the Sagarin Top 60, has worse SOS 110)

   

   posted by lump

   Dec. 14, 2009 6:16pm
7. Perhpas we have a data source issue (although I may be reading the wrong column).  I'm using the following source: http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

   

   posted by lump

   Dec. 14, 2009 6:19pm
8. It does look like we have differing data. My Sagarin link from USA Today -

   http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt09.htm

   shows the same as you lump -

   Troy #69 (SOS #110) - Central Michigan #38 (SOS #110) and

   CFU #62 (SOS #91) - Rutgers #52 (SOS #85)

    

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   Dec. 14, 2009 7:47pm
9. Oops - Correction -

   Troy #69 (SOS #110) - Central Michigan #38 (SOS #107)

   

   posted by drtnapper07

   Dec. 14, 2009 7:48pm
10. THANKS! for the heads up on those.

    here are the updated plays.

    Dec 19 Rutgers -2.5
    Dec 19 Wyoming +12
    Dec 22 Oregon State -2
    Dec 23 California -3
    Dec 24 Nevada -14
    Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
    Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
    Dec 31 Air Force +5
    Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
    Jan 1 LSU +3
    Jan 2 Arkansas -8
    Jan 4 TCU -7
    Jan 6 Central Michigan -4
    
    
    Here are the one's in question:
    
    52 Rutgers (85) vs 62 Central Florida (91)
    - Rutgers is in the top 60.
    - You are suppose to fade Rutgers ... UNLESS they are playing another team whose SOS is higher (which Central Florida's is) ... making Rutgers the play
    
    56 Nevada (86) vs 89 SMU (94)
    - Nevada is in the top 60.
    - You are suppose to fade them ... UNLESS they are playing another team whose SOS is higher (which SMU's is) ... making Nevada the play
    
    46 Houston (92) vs 55 Air Force (89)
    - Both teams are in the top 60
    - You fade the team with the worse SOS ... meaning Air Force is the play
    
    38 Central Michigan (107) vs 69 Troy (110)
    - Central Michigan is in the top 60
    - You are suppose to fade them, UNLESS they are playing another team whose SOS is higher (which Troy's is) ... making Central Michigan the play
    
    
    
    * Obviously those four games are very close, but it is part of the system.
    ** Even though some of the numbers might change during bowls ... it will not matter. You are suppose to use the end of season numbers and post season is not included.

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 15, 2009 12:20am
11. be careful with Nevada. I hear their running back, Lippencot (sp?) is out for the bowl game. He was a very good part of their offense this year.

    fyi

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 15, 2009 12:21am
12. Thanks for updating Phantom - This system does have previous sucess - Let's roll!

    

    posted by drtnapper07

    Dec. 17, 2009 5:10pm
13. here are the updated plays.

    Dec 19 Rutgers -2.5 ------WIN
    Dec 19 Wyoming +12 -----WIN
    Dec 22 Oregon State -2
    Dec 23 California -3
    Dec 24 Nevada -14
    Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
    Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
    Dec 31 Air Force +5
    Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
    Jan 1 LSU +3
    Jan 2 Arkansas -8
    Jan 4 TCU -7
    Jan 6 Central Michigan -4

    keep'n an eye on these.

     

     

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 20, 2009 1:20pm