Creighton @ Dayton
Saturday 1:05 PM EST
Easily the best game on the board in my opinion. Dayton is fresh off of a huge season which took them to the 2nd round of the NCAA dance after upsetting Huggie Bear's WVA mountaineers in the first round. Creighton had a 20++ win season but had to settle for an NIT berth they rode to the semi's. These two mid major powers clash this Saturday and I think we're going to see a surprise result. I'm a Creighton fan, alum, and Mo Valley lover. I see this game and a number of things stick out to me:
**Creighton loses Woodfox and Doetzler, two solid players who will be sorely missed.
**Creighton has no true point guard. I'm in love with P'Allen Stinnett's skills, but he was in and out of the doghouse for Coach Altman all year and, to me, never proved he can run the point effectively for an entire game.
**Dayton returns four starters from last year's team. They are deep, they are talented, and they are at home.
If you follow the Jays and the Valley, you know Creighton usually starts out slow. Maybe not this year, but this is a tough opening assignment for Dana Altman and his Jays, which boasted 8 players last year getting 20+ minutes a game last year. Dayton has a proven point guard and I think they will start the season with a strong win against Creighton. Booker Woodfox was the MVC's player of the Year, he's gone. Center Kenton Lawson transferred to St. Mary's of the West Coast (one of three conferences I cap for BPO). I've studied the Creighton starting 5 and key recruits and this team has a lot of talent and might duplicate last year's 26 wins, but I don't see it this Saturday at Dayton. It's going to take Creighton time to jell and they don't have the size inside to compete. Usually the guard play of Creighton, where they are strong again, is the advantage they need to win. However, Dayton has the edge in this game and the veteran leadership.
Dayton's top 4 returners are amazing. Did you know dayton is pre season #17 ahead of guys like Ohio State? Did you know they are projected in some spots as #3 seed? This team is solid and very athletic. I think you will see 2 if not 3 make the All Atlantic team and the MVP of the league will come from this team. Point Guard London Warren is one of my favorite players you have never heard about. Is Dayton as good as the hype? Will Vegas set the line low because of Creighton's mid major success the past 8 years? I like Dayton in this spot and I'm hammering on it. I just can't see Creighton being able to run against a team that has 10 of it's top 11 scorers back, that's predicted to be this year's mid major power, and is opening their season at home. I have to roll Dayton to win this game convincingly. Play the line with confidence and monitor it to get a couple of free points as I think Creighton will be the trendy pick among squares who think the traditional mid major will make it happen. I love the Jays, but I'm going against them in this one.
PC 5***** free play on Dayton -7

Additional notes:

Creighton has 3 players out on injury and illness that usually get minutes in the rotation.

Dayton is expecting a sell out for this home game.