dr bob

INDIANAPOLIS (-6.0) 28 Minnesota 26

06:05 PM Pacific Time Monday, Nov-08 - Stats Matchup

Randy Moss has shown how much he’s worth the last two weeks, as he’s been unable to contribute thanks to a pulled hamstring. Vikings’ quarterback Daunte Culpepper was having one of the greatest seasons every through 4 ½ game before Moss got hurt, averaging 8.5 yards per pass play. However, in 2-plus games since Moss’ injury, Culpepper has averaged only 6.1 yppp despite facing teams that combine to allow 6.5 yppp on defense. The difference between having Moss and not having him is 9 points based on how the Vikings pass attack has gone from great to sub-par the last 2 ½ games. Moss may be a game time decision, but it appears as if coach Tice is leaning towards giving him an extra week of rest and Culpepper should still post pretty good numbers against a bad Colts’ defense that has given up 7.3 yppp this season (to teams that combine to average 6.4 yppp on offense). The Vikings should also be able to run the ball against a sub-par Indy run defense (4.4 ypr allowed to teams that average 4.3 ypr on offense), as Mewelde Moore has been quite a find at running back (5.9 ypr) and the Vikings have averaged 5.5 ypr in 4 games since Moore’s become the main running back (against teams that allow a combined 4.7 ypr on defense). The Colts, of course, will do their share of scoring too, as their league’ best attack (6.7 yppl against teams that allow 5.6 yppl) goes up against a worse than average Minnesota defense that’s permitted 5.6 yppl this season to teams that average a combined 5.4 yppl on offense. With Moss out, my math model would favor the Colts by 6 ½ points, but Indy qualifies in a negative 76-131-2 ATS situation that plays against home favorites that have played poorly on defense in recent games. Minnesota has a solid 54.8% chance of covering at the current line of +6 points, so I’ll lean with the Vikings even without Moss in the lineup