Hey Guys,

Let's hope this weekend is better.  Here is my first game.

UConn @ Baylor -10

This will be Baylor's home opener and the crowd will be ready to cheer on their best team in years.  Baylor's win at Wake Forest was quite impressive and more importantly building confidence for the Bears.  This Baylor team is improving and on it's way up.

I believe Baylor has a huge edge in athletes! QB Griffin has killer speed and an accurate arm  Last year's game at UConn was dominated by Baylor for nearly 3 quarters which slipped away late in Q4 loosing 31-28.  UConn lost their top players on defense this year and they couldn't stop QB Griffen then.  Also, another mismatch will be WR Gettis (6'4") against the smaller, inexperienced UConn defensive backs.  

QB Frazer is out for UConn. Backup QB for a team that doesn't throw the ball well maybe sick as well. They maybe go with a 3rd string, true freshman against Baylor.  We know UConn is well coached but the loss of talent on offense is too much to overcome early in the season.  The Baylor defense has improved from last year in my opinion.  They got Penn St transfer Taylor (6-4 / 360 Ibs),  DT is 310Ibs, both DEs are 6-6 /270 Ibs and solid LBs.  I can't see UConn running the ball successfully against this Baylor defense like they did last year with QB Lorenzen and RB Brown.  QB Lorenzen and RB Brown accounted for 80% (277 of 350 total yds) and 90% (28 pts of 31 pts).  One would expect UConn's game plan would be to run the ball all day and keep QB Griffen off the field.  This isn't happening. They just don't have the horses like last year to execute the plan.
 
I believe the situation also favors Baylor.  UConn will be deflated after blowing a 10-0 Q4 lead last week to NCar.  Very difficult to regroup and travel the following week.  Baylor has had two weeks to prepare for this revenge game.  
I expect UConn's defense will tire after chasing Griffen all day in that Texas heat and humidity.  Baylor will avenge last year's loss with an impressive win for the home crowd.  

Key Game Trends
Baylor is 13-2 ATS as a fav last 4 years
Baylor is 5-0 ATS last five as a fav last 2 years
Baylor is 6-1 ATS as non-conference home fav

Play BAYLOR -10 (5*)   Prediction>>>Baylor 34-13

GL,


Rockman