UCF @ So Miss -14.5

This is a game where you need to really dig deep to find the true value.  This So Miss team is loaded with talent and is flying under the radar in my opinion.  They return 8 on offense including QB Davis, who set school freshman records for passing yards (3128) and 23 TDs.  Joining Davis are first-team C-USA stars, RB Fletcher and WR Brown.  The O-line returns 5 of the starting 7 in 2008.  This will be a vastly improved and experienced unit.  The offense is ready to make some noise!!  The defense returns a trio of ALL C-USA members from last year's team including 4 defensive backs.  I expect the defensive unit to improve on last year's numbers.

The Knights return 9 on offense including their QB Calabrese.  The offense really struggled last year as their output decreased by 183 YPG and 19 PPG.  The uncertainty at QB as they rotated 3 different guys spelled disaster.  The defensive backs got hit hard by graduation this year.  The most experienced secondary in the conference in 2008 to starting freshmen in 2009.  They lost 3X 1st team C-USA CB Burnett (44 tkl, 4 int), HM C-USA CB Neal (52 tkl, 4 int), 1st team C-USA SS Rashad (72 tkl, 5 int) and HM C-USA FS Venson (82 tkl, 2 int).  That is a combined 186 career starts and 50 career int's lost!  They will have four true fosh in the 2 deep and have a combined 4 career starts. (ouch)

Well, UFC started the year the same way they finished in 2008.  They hosted Samford (PR 51-- Div AA) at home and needed a Q4 TD to win 28-24.  Samford generated 286 yards of offense which 208 yards came through the air.  On the other hand, UCF only generated 282 yards in offense themselves.  This demonstrates their inability to move the ball on offense as they once again rotated QBs Calabrese and Hodges.  

I know last last year So Miss only won 17-6 at UCF.  But, RB Fletcher missed the game and still So Miss easily covered the spread of -3.  After last week's tune up game vs. Alcorn St which So Miss lead at half 35-0 and eventually won 52-0 (621 yards of offense), I expect So Miss to be ready to for UCF.

There is a HUGE mismatch in this game!!  The mismatch will be the Golden Eagles offensive vs the Knights defense (secondary).  You can expect that the ability to run the ball this time around with the return of RB Fletcher will open up the pass game nicely for QB Davis. I expect Davis to exploit the Knights unexperienced secondary all day long.  Lay the points with confidence as I see So Miss winning by 28 points.

Key Trend > >> George O'Leary is 0-8 ATS away after playing a non-conference game as coach of UCF

Play So Miss -14.5 (5* Play)

GL,


Rockman