Hey Guys,

I have a bunch of games I have been reviewing and here are my thoughts.  I will rate each game 1-5 stars -- 5 being the highest.  Feedback is welcomed!!

Maryland @ California -21

Lets say the Golden Bears will be ready for this game.  Last season they traveled to Maryland and trailed 21-3 before getting a wake-up call in 35-27 loss. No worries with this a night game and tailback Jahvid Best might be the best running back in the country behind a veteran line.  The Golden bears bring back a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. The Bears are coming off 7-0 ATS season as home chalk. The Terps have only nine starters back for a team that is 2-7 in first road game under coach Ralph Friedgen.  The turtles carry a 1-6 ATS mark away versus an opponent with revenge. Couple that with Cal’s 5-1 record in season openers and their spotless 3-0 penchant for non-conference revenge and you can see why we should lay the points in this match up.

Maryland 1-5 Game One… 1-4 A bef BB HG’s… 3-7 dogs 20 > pts ... 0-13 ats last 13 SU losses

California 3-0 w/ non con rev… 5-1 Game One… 4-1 H vs non con opp

Play California -21 (4* play)


Tulsa -14 @ Tulane

What we can see about this game -- Tulsa has won and covered the last 4 years by an average of 33 ppg.  Jacob Bower will be third QB in three years, but has solid receivers to throw to for a team that has owned Tulane. The Green Wave was 2-10 and 5-7 ATS, with 22 freshmen seeing action. The offense has to do better than score 17 PPG like last season, especially against Tulsa. Tulane is 1-31 ATS when they are out-gained by their opponents by 200 or more yards. Tulsa will be breaking in a new QB (Jacob Bower) but nothing else has really changed.

Tulane is 2-32 ATS in their last 34 home games when they allow 35 or more points

Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
Favoring:  TULSA

Play Tulsa -14 (2* play)


New Mexico @ Texas AM -14

New Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman kicked off 2008 with an Aggies team that boasted a 14-0 SU and 11-3 ATS record in lined home openers. New Mexico’s pathetic 0-6-1 ATS mark in its first lined game and a 1-3-1 ATS ledger at Big 12 sites sounds a lot like receiving orders to face the firing squad. With 16 starters, including 10 on offense with their QB, the Aggies will be ready to erase last year’s painful memories, the Aggies should leave some bloodied and beaten Lobos on the battlefield. New Mexico, on the other hand, is starting over on defense, with just three players back and zero linemen. The defense was the strength for New Mexico in 2008.  The Lobos are re-building this year deploying a new system under first year coach Mike Locksley.  This is not a good situation for them as they play their first road game in College Station.

Play Texas AM -14 (4* play)


FAU @ Nebraska -22

Nebraska laying 3 TDs against a sun belt team.  The Cornhuskers are starting to play some defense as they improved over 128 YPG last year under first year head coach Bo Pelini.  Pelini's personality is highly infectious and it appears to have ignited the program once again.  Football fever is running rampant throughout Lincoln these days.  This team will be ready and focused to start the season playing under the lights at home.

FAU is a top sunbelt team when squaring off against .333 or less opposition but they are 3-15 SU and 4-13-1 ats on the road vs. greater than .333 opposition. Head coach Howard Schnellenberger has had little-to-no bite as a dog of more than 17 points in his career, cashing only 6 of 22 in this role, including 0-9 his last 9.  FAU only return 4 on the defensive side of the ball and to make things worse they lost their top 6 tacklers.  Senior QB Rusty Smith is healthy and primed for a big season, but his personal 1-8-1 SU/ATS record as a non-conference double-digit dog doesn't bode well at Lincoln this weekend.  I expect the Cornhuskers to score early and often against this depleted FAU defense.

Nebraska 6-1 ats log in their first lined game

FAU is 6-30 ats when they loose SU last 36 games--most recent 1-6 ats last 7

Howard Schnellenberger is 0-11 ATS against Big 12 conference opponents

Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game
(38-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating=4*)
Favoring:  NEBRAKSA

Play Nebraska -22 (4* play)  -- if not too costly buy it to -21


WKU @ Tennessee -29

Not too much to write about this game except we need to bet against bad teams.  The Hilltoppers finished 2-10 last year (2-7-1 ats) while going 0-2 SU/ATS versus the SEC (outscored 82-10).  WKU is starting a new QB with a team averaging 18 PPG last year.  The good thing is that they return 5 offensive linemen.  The defense was hit hard by graduation, with all four starters gone.  On the other hand, The Vols improved their defensive play by 132 YPG.  The offense slipped big time last year but it should not be a problem against WKUs defense.  Now comes Lane Kiffen to the rescue.  I don't expect Tennessee to compete with the better teams in the SEC but when the worse Sunbelt team comes Knoxville, I'm expecting a blood bath.  Kiffen will attempt to make a huge statement in his first game and reward the orange faithful with a blowout win against an inferior opponent.  I can't see the Hilltoppers scoring more than 6 points against one of the top SEC defensive units.  I expect the Vols' defense to cause problems all day for the WKU offense turning a few turnovers in TDs.  I see a 45-6 final in this game.

Play Tennessee -29 (5* play)


LSU -17 @ Washington

WASHINGTON is 1-11 ATS in all lined games over the L2 seasons

WASHINGTON is 1-9 ATS as an underdog over the L2 seasons

WASHINGTON is 21-44 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992

Les Miles is 13-4 ATS in non-conference games as coach of LSU

Play Against - Any team (WASHINGTON) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season.
(37-11 over the last 10seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating = 3*)

LSU brings a 19-game unbeaten streak (12-5 ATS) in non-conf. action to Washington

I expect the Huskies to be somewhat competitive in 1h while emotions are running high.  But, eventually the cream will rise to the top and the Tigers will roll them and cover the game.  I believe there will be a great opportunity to wager LSU in the 2h.

Play LSU -17 (2* play) -- The better play will be LSU 2h (4* play)


BYU @ Oklahoma -22


I know the Sooners lost some key offensive linemen but they return a seasoned QB, Sam Bradford.  I honestly believe that BYU is grossly over-rated in my opinion. They played three quality opponents last year and lost all three games. (Utah 48-24, Tcu 32-7 & Arizona 31-21).  Lets be honest Okla is a far superior team than all three of those opponents.  BYU returns their QB, Max Hall but have to replace four O-linemen.  I expect the Sooners to continue their dominance at home as their speed with be the difference in this match up.  BYU will not be able to keep up the pace as they haven't seen speed like the Sooners.

BYU is 2-13 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992
OKLAHOMA is 10-2 ATS as a favorite over the L2 seasons...6-0 ats last 6 wins

The Sooners are 11-1 and 10-1 ATS in non-conference regular season games the last 3 years
The Cougars are 0-5 ATS vs neutral site ranked teams...9-64 ats last 73 losses (0-4 ats L4)

Play Oklahoma -22 (4* play)

Another Kentucky Nugget >>>>Rich Brooks is 14-5 ATS in September games as coach of KENTUCKY!!!

Don't be afraid of the big chalk in week one.  Over the past 3 years of week 1, favs of 17-26 pts have been money going 18-5-1 (75%).  This is what I thinking going into tomorrow and the strength of the plays may change with any key line movements.  

I wish everyone a great & profitable 2009 season -- crush the books!!

Take care,


Rockman