RED SHEET PLAYS

NOVEMBER 6, 2004 VOLUME 36, NUMBER 10

HOUSTON 48 - East Carolina 14 - (5:00 EST) -- Line opened at Houston minus 13½, and is now minus 14.

A year ago, for the first time in 7 years, the Coogs went bowling (54-48 loss to Hawaii in the

Hawaii Bowl). With 16 returning starters, including QB Kolb, hopes were high for a repeat

of post-season play. But a 1-6 start dashed those plans. Three of those losses, by the way,

came by a FG; in OT at league stalwart Southern Miss, in which Houston had a 518-338 yd

edge; & by a TD at TCU. A team which can obviously play. A week ago, the Coogs had a

200-yd edge in their complete shutdown of Tulane, which posted 59 pts & 525 yds the

previous week. No reason they can't take the Pirates with relative ease, as EC has allowed

55 ppg in its 3 road games to date. Chance to explode, & shouldn't fail.

RATING: HOUSTON 90

UCLA 44 - Washington State 17 - (3:30) -- Line opened at UCLA minus 13, and is now minus 14. A year

ago, the Bruins of UCLA somehow made it into a bowl (lost 17-9 to Fresno, in Silicon

Classic). We say somehow, because that Uclan edition was an offensive gnat, failing to top

14 pts no less than 6 times, & winding up the season 110th in total "O", 114th in rushing "O",

& 100th in scoring "O". Seems light years away, as this year, the Bruins rank 24th in

scoring, 16th in rushing, & 22nd in total offense. Defensively, they've been far from a force

(105th), but they are in off their first Pac Ten shutout in 17 years. In this one, they are in a

triple-revenge setup, catching the Cougars on a 4-game straightup slide, & with an invisible

rushing "O". Drew, Olson, & Co won't miss the chance to do this up right.

RATING: UCLA 89

Oklahoma 27 - TEXAS A&M 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 10, and is now minus 12. We

were originally going to pass on this one, in light of the Aggies' ultimate failure at Baylor,

which saw A&M losing in OT as a 25½ pt favorite. That, obviously, was a classic "lookahead"

for the Ags, as they had a 3-1 TO deficit, after amassing a 17-1 TO edge in their first

7 games. Despite that devastating failure, respected sources say that A&M will be fully

focused for this one, after being destroyed to the tune of 77-0 a year ago, at Norman. This

one is at home, & the Aggies catch the Sooners off their bruising war with Oklahoma St

(escaped with a 38-35 win). Okies just do not seem the same defensive force lately.

RATING: TEXAS A&M 88

ARMY 41 - Air Force 34 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Air Force minus 5½, and is now minus 4½. Simply no

questioning the vast improvement of these Cadets, since grabbing Bobby Ross to head

their gridiron program. A year ago, Army ranked 115th in total "O", 111th in scoring, &, are

you ready for this?, dead last in rushing, by a full 17½ yds over the second worst overland

team in the nation. Any casual fan knows that Army has been an overland force since going

to the "bone" in '84. One win combined in '02 & '03. Bye-bye, Todd Berry. This year's

turnaround has been dramatic. Check averaging 240 RYs & 234 PYs in their last 3 games.

AF has allowed 42 ppg last 2 wks, & series host is 26-9 vs the pts. Upset!

RATING: ARMY 88

PITTSBURGH 27 - Philadelphia 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 1½, and is still minus 1½.

A quick history lesson. In 1959, with 2 weeks left, there were 2 unbeaten teams left: USC

& Syracuse. Ucla had 2 games to play: USC & Syracuse. Bruins upset the Trojans, 10-3,

but were murdered by the Orange, 36-8. Steelers have same unique opportunity, having

put the unparalleled streak of the Pats to rest last week, with same chance to do likewise to

the perfect Eags. Check: 220 RYs vs Pats; Roethlisbergers' perfect 5-0 record; unmatched

dedication of Staley vs his former mates; Eagles hurting at RB; etc, to say nothing of another

HD setup for the smoking Steelers. Pitt goes one better than Uclans.

RATING: PITTSBURGH 89

Washington 19 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Detroit minus 3½, and is still minus 3½. As we

wrote earlier in the week, these 'Skins hardly bring to mind any of the former offensive

powers of Joe Gibbs. They rank 30th in scoring, as well as 27th in total offense. But the

other side of the coin shows that they rank in the top 3 in TYs, RYs & PYs allowed, having

held 4 opponents to 17 pts or less. The Lions have been one of the more pleasant NFL

surprises this season, breaking to a 4-2 start, thanks mainly to a +10 turnover edge, & the

emergence of rookie WR Williams as a force. But Williams is hurting, the Lions rank dead

last in total offense, & Detroit has allowed 38, 31 pts in 2 of last 3 contests. 'Skins!

RATING: WASHINGTON 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Tulsa, California, Ariz St, Wisconsin - NFL: Baltimore, St Louis, Indianapolis

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest move): TexasTech (-27½ to -31); Virginia (-11 to -14); USC (-15 to

-18): Northwestern (+6½ to +4); MichiganSt (Pick to -2); Georgia (-22 to -24); Oklahoma (-10 to -12); Navy

(-10½ to -12½); Texas (-10½ to -12½); Louisville (-11½ to -13); Duke (+32½ to +31); California (-19½ to -21)

-- TIME CHANGES: BC/Rut: now 3:30; Wisc/Minny: 3:30; Illinois/Indy: 2:00; Iowa/Purdue: 3:30; Miami/

Clem: 7:45; Ga/Ky: 12:30; Syr/Pitt: 12:00; VaTech/UNC: 12:00; Kans/Colo: 1:30; Utah/ColoSt: 9:45; Unlv/

Wy: 7:00; NCSt/GTech: 12:00; Ala/MissSt: 6:30; USC/OregSt: 10:00; BG/WM: 1:00; SCar/Ark: 12:30....

RED SHEET ONLINE

RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY

88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

POINTWISE PLAYS

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES 11-06 & 07

TULSA over Southern Methodist RATING: 1

CALIFORNIA over Oregon RATING: 1

HOUSTON over East Carolina RATING: 2

MICHIGAN STATE over Ohio State RATING: 3

NOTRE DAME over Tennessee RATING: 4

TEXAS TECH over Baylor RATING: 4

UCLA over Washington State RATING: 5

ALABAMA over Mississippi State RATING: 5

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE

FOOTBALL PROPHECY

The lower the number, the higher the play. Top rating of 1. Normally two

teams a week rated 1. All choices are listed in order of preference. Key

Releases are teams rated 4 or higher. Teams rated 5 are considered

"Best of the Rest". Teams in capital letters in individual writeups are

home. All times are Eastern and are subject to late week changes. (HC):

Homecoming. SU: Straightup. ATS: Against The Spread. LW: Last Week.

IOWA STATE 19 - Nebraska 17 - (2:00) -- Two straight Big12 wins for Cyclones,

after 13-game slide. Only TD vs Kansas came on fumble return, but their run

"D" is solid, & check 11 takeaways last 3 wks. Huskers' 3 TDs vs Mizzou came

on blocked punt, fumble return, & 86-yd run. Just 17 FDs last 2 wks. Upset.

KANSAS 20 - Colorado 16 - (2:00) -- Should be a far cry from LY's 97 pt OT glut.

Just 8, 10, & 7 pts in 3 of last 4 Jayhawk outings (14 FDpg in those 4). Ran

only on Toledo, but Buffs averaging <100 RYs in league play, & rank 104th in

total "D". Host 9-1 ATS in KU tilts, & Buffs caught in Texas-KansSt sandwich.

KANSAS STATE 70 - Baylor 20 - (2:00) -- Katie, bar the door! Win here & the

Raiders are bowl eligible for 12th straight year. Can't run, but don't have to.

Chalked up 37 FDs & 587 yds vs Bears LY, & with Baylor allowing 53 ppg in its

3 RGs to date, see no reason for any containing here. Latest annual drubbing.

Florida 27 - VANDERBILT (HC) 24 - (2:00) -- Vandy has given Gators fits. Should

continue, if QB Cutler is ready (neck injury LW). Surprised if Gators are at

fever pitch, with Zook situation, coupled with their wrenching loss to Georgia.

UTAH 56 - Colorado State 20 - (3:00) -- Rams have been splendid as a league

dog or pick (Wise Points), but have topped 126 RYs just once, & Utes are on

17-3 ATS run. Smith is 17-1 as a starter, & check 548 yds vs decent SDSt "D".

BRIGHAM YOUNG 34 - San Diego State 14 - (3:00) -- Fifth revenge shot for

Aztecs this year, & thus far they're 0-4 SU & ATS. Averaging only 52½ RYs on

the road. Coogs have covered 4-of-5 (by 13½ ppg), & suddenly an "O" force.

UNLV 33 - Wyoming 21 - (3:00) -- Turnovers. The 'Pokes have just 4 in their 5

HGs, but 11 in their 3 roadsters (6 Bramlet INTs last 2 RGs). That adds up to

a tidy 7-0 ATS for the host in Wy tilts (1 no liner). Revenge call for rested Rebs.

RICE (HC) 30 - Fresno State 26 - (3:00) -- Just 223 RYpg for Owls vs Navy &

Tulsa (averaged 447 in previous 3). But note covering their last 2 HGs by 12 &

20½ pts. FSt also cooking overland (>260 RYpg 3 of last 5). Got "must win"

over lowly Smu (led 35-0 in 2nd), but dog is 23-10 ATS in Fresno games lately.

Tulsa 45 - SOUTHERN METHODIST (HC) 14 - (3:00) -- 'Canes have opened it

up lately, averaging 450 yds & 43 pts in what should be 3-game run. Kilian had

a field day vs 'Stangs LY, & Smu is allowing 347 RYpg last 3 outings. Romper!

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 27 - Cincinnati 24 - (3:00) -- We know that the Eagles

are on a 13-game league run, & that they covered their last HG by 23 pts. But

Cincy well remembers LY, & ran for 242, 255 yds past 2 wks. Could go to wire.

Oklahoma 31 - TEXAS A&M 21 - (3:30) -- That's right: 77-0. That's what A&M

has had to live with since '03 pasting. Ags would seem nice bounceback play,

after disaster vs Baylor, but note 15 & 27½ pt ATS losses last 2 wks. Catching

Okies off OklaSt squeaker a plus, but White & Peterson are still cooking. Pass.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27 - Georgia Tech 22 - (3:30) -- Ten TOs for NCSt

the past 2 wks, including 5 INTs by QB Davis in loss to Clemson. Held OhioSt,

Md, & Clemson to 71 RYpg, & should do likewise vs yo-yo Jacket running gm.

Tech reeling off improbable windup vs VaTech, but dog 20-2 ATS in NCSt tilts.

VIRGINIA 26 - Maryland 10 - (3:30) -- Clashing trends here, as the host is 12-2

ATS in Cav games, while the guest is 10-1 ATS in Terp tilts. Md QB Statham

exploded for 333 PYs vs FlaSt, after minuscule output previous 3, but check

only 53 RYpg for the Terps in last 4 outings. Cavs rested, & dominant overland.

Notre Dame 20 - TENNESSEE 17 - (3:30 - CBS) -- Irish needed LW's bye, after

losing to BC in final minute. Have held 5 of 8 foes under 100 RYs, while Vols

possibly showing run "D" crack, being stung for 6.1 ypr at SoCaro. UT was

bludgeoned statwise in that one, & there is rarely breathing room in Vol games.

ALABAMA 41 - Mississippi State 13 - (3:30) -- As we figured, the Bulldogs ran

wild vs that fake Kentucky rush "D", in 340-84 yd edge. Norwood has run for

174 & 165 past 2 weeks. But a different story here, as rested Tide has the #1

"D" in the nation, with its SU wins coming by 31, 21, 52, 28, & 24 pts. Lay it!

Arizona 30 - WASHINGTON (HC) 27 - (3:30) -- What a match! These 2 both

sport 1-7 logs. Huskies have been outscored 98-20, the past 3 weeks, & are

allowing 34 ppg in their last 8 dog roles. Can't run, & Paus just 14-of-36 vs

Oregon. 'Zona averaging 8 ppg in last 9 lined affairs, but Bell ran wild yr ago.

CALIFORNIA 45 - Oregon 14 - (3:30) -- Ducks have recorded 14 sacks past 2

wks, & will need a repeat if they are to stay anywhere near Bears, who have

top "O" in nation. Averaging 43 ppg in their 6 chalk setups, & in off 2 shutouts

(1st time since '68). Rodgers, Arrington, etc, etc. No bucking this juggernaut.

UCLA 41 - Washington State 17 - (3:30) -- No questioning Bruin offense, which

is averaging 33 pts in last 7 outings, behind QB Olson & RB Drew, but check

its 108th ranked "D" tossing shutout LW (1st one in Pac10 play in 17 yrs). Not

what reeling Coogs need to hear. Can't run, & are on 0-4 SU, 0-5 ATS slides.

Southern California 38 - OREGON STATE 20 - (4:00) -- Beavs' Anderson threw

for nearly 500 yds vs Trojans LY, & is now all-time school tosser (66 TDs). SC

has 77-30 FD edge past 3 wks, & Leinart in off impressive 23-of-28 showing,

but Troy's only road ****** this year have come by just 5 & 6 pts, so go easy.

BOWLING GREEN 63 - Western Michigan 17 - (4:00) -- Five straight wins for

the Falcs, with Jacobs throwing for a cool 1,755 yds & 17 TDs. Have held foes

to 81, 92 & 45 RYs at home, while Western checks in with nation's 113th "D".

CENTRAL FLORIDA (HC) 27 - Ohio U 24 - (4:00) -- If the Knights (and O'Leary)

are to get off the schneid (12 straight losses), this is the time. Only 7 & 9 FDs

last 2 weeks, & no rushing "O". But 4 straight losses for 'Cats, so vulnerable.

Eastern Michigan 35 - Central Michigan 31 - (4:30 @ Detroit) -- Eastern is

averaging 31 pts in last 4 outings, with QB Bonet a nice 16/5 TDs to INTs. On

3-game ATS run. CM's Seymour held <100 RYs 1st time in a dozen tilts LW.

HOUSTON (HC) 45 - East Carolina 14 - (5:00) -- Chance for the Coogs to take

out carload of frustrations. Kolb ate the Pirates up LY, & check UH "D" holding

Tulane to 3 pts, after 59 -pt explosion previous wk. Pirates took advantage of

lacking Army "D", but rank 114th in rushing "O", & allowing 55 ppg on the road.

ARIZONA STATE (HC) 41 - Stanford 13 - (6:30) -- Devils have been outscored

72-7 by mighty USC & Cal, but averaging >36 pts in other 6 games. Walter

last 3 wks: 0 TDs, 6 TDs, 0 TDs. Have to see patented comeback effort, &

with Cards averaging 9 ppg in 3 of last 4 outings, can't seem them staying in it.

SOUTH CAROLINA 38 - Arkansas 28 - (7:00) -- 'Cocks posted 30 FDs, 226

RYs, & 341 PYs (155 yd edge) in loss to Tenn, but couldn't overcome 3 INTs,

& TD on KO return. Pinkins is healthy, & SC should move it vs Hog "D" which

has allowed 513, 522 yds last 2 games. Host is on an 8-0 ATS run in Ark tilts.

Navy 31 - TULANE 20 - (7:00) -- Middies had season-high 346 yds in avenging

'03 loss to Delaware, behind QB Polanco & RB Eckel. Now 7-1 SU, while the

Wave is just 2-5. Greenies can't stay with 'em, overland (>108 RYs just 1 of

6 lined tilts), but Ricard is dangerous overhead. Revenge sandwich for Navy.

TEXAS 37 - Oklahoma State 14 - (7:00) -- Nice time for 'Horns to be catching

crestfallen 'Pokes (missed 49-yd tying FG in last 0:11 vs Okies, with Morency

<100 RYs first time). Steers in off perhaps best 2 performances of the year,

with RY edges of 351-(-17) & 326-3. And Texas took 'em by 49 just last year.

NEVADA-RENO 45 - San Jose State 31 - (9:05) -- Plenty of running here, as

rested Reno has allowed 267 RYpg last 4 outings, while the Spartans ranked

dead last in rush "D", before holding Utep to just 144 yds. Five TOs killed 'em

in that one, but before stepping out with SJSt, note host is 9-0 ATS in Nev tilts.

HAWAII 46 - Louisiana Tech 24 - (11:05) -- Chang still needs 14 PYs for set alltime

Div I record for most PYs. His 4 picks vs Boise should have him focused

here, & remember that the 'Bows are averaging 46 pts at home. Tech "D" can

be had, but Moats (if healthy) is salivating over prospect of facing HI rush "D".

TUESDAY NIGHT

NORTHERN ILLINOIS 45 - Toledo 42 - (7:30 - ESPN2) -- This one has all the

earmarks of a classic shootout. Both are on 6-game runs, amazingly averaging

an identical 42 pts in those streaks. Haldi & Wolfe over Gradkowski, but barely.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

LOUISVILLE 56 - Texas Christian 13 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- No Saturday games

for Cards between Oct 2 & Nov 20. Have 128-16 pt edge at home, & should be

able to move at will vs Frogs, who are on an 0-6 spread run on the road, losing to

the spot by nearly 14 ppg. Tcu ranks last in passing "D". LeFors highlight reel.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM 48 - South Florida 24 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Hackney

continues his onslaught for Blazers. Another 448 yds vs Tulane & 18/4 TD/INT

ratio. Loss to Greenies wasn't in cards, but quick bounceback vs defenseless

Bulls (>40 pts 3 of last 4), with Julmiste in off horrendous 3-of-20 showing. Rout.

THURSDAY NIGHT

Louisville 38 - MEMPHIS 20 - (7:30 - ESPN) -- Fully realize that the dog is king

in this series, that the Tigers are averaging 47 pts at home, & that Williams has

topped 100 RYs in 15 of his last 17 games. But there is no bucking this smoking

Card outfit, which is 6-0 ATS, by 13.25 ppg ATS. LeFors is 38-of-48 last 2 gms.

FRIDAY NIGHT

Marshall 22 - AKRON 20 - (7:30 - ESPN2) -- Just 20 pts for the Herd vs CFla's

38 ppg D", with Hill a human 15-of-41. Marshall is 5-0 in MAC play, but has worst

"O" in nation. Zips have gotten 510 RYs from Biggs last 3, & Frye is steady hand.

SATURDAY

BOSTON COLLEGE 27 - Rutgers 20 - (12:00) -- Only Syracuse & WVa ran on

Knights, who are only 18 pts from an 18-1 ATS run. Eagles rested, but WVa is

up next. QB Peterson & BC's rush "D" are solid, but still a question overland.

FLORIDA STATE (HC) 49 - Duke 7 - (12:00) -- 'Noles have dropped to 13th in

both polls, & deservedly so. Only 94 RYpg last 2, with Washington's shoulder

injury key. But covered their last HG by 30, & altho the Imps are in off 423-400

yd edge at Wake, not the opportune time to be catching the Sems. In a romp.

WISCONSIN 37 - Minnesota 17 - (12:00) -- Bye week was perfect timing for the

Badgers, with "D" line hurting. Were mauled overland at Minny LY, but Gophs

are epitome of home/road dichotomy, losing their last 2 travelers by 42½ & 26½

pts ATS, & in off 238-169 RY deficit vs impotent Indiana rush game. Revenge!

MICHIGAN STATE 34 - Ohio State 17 - (12:00) -- Spartan psyche is of utmost

concern, after blowing 27-10 lead over hated Mich in final 6½ minutes. Stanton

expected to miss this, but note MSt averaging 287 RYs & 346 PYs last 4 tilts.

No TDs for 98th rated Bucks offense LW, which lost its last RG by 26 pts ATS.

ILLINOIS 27 - Indiana 17 - (12:00) -- Fourteen straight Big10 losses for the Illini,

who are averaging just 68 RYs in 4 of last 5 outings. But note holding Iowa to

2.1 ypr. Should move it vs Indy's 110th ranked defense. This a home series.

PENN STATE 13 - Northwestern 10 - (12:00) -- Lions averaging only 7 pts & 67

RYs in current 5-game slide. Only 1 TD over the past 2 wks. 'Cats pulled the

upset of Purdue, winning in final 0:38, but caught in revenge sandwich. Pass.

IOWA 24 - Purdue 17 - (12:00) -- It has all come crashing down for Boilers, who

have fallen out of Top 25, after ranking 5th just 3 wks back. Seven TOs in three

late losses to Wisc, Mich, & NW, after only 2 in first 5 games. And Orton was

benched at NW. Hawks outscored MichSt & OhioSt by 71-23 as Big10 hosts.

MIAMI-FLORIDA (HC) 38 - Clemson 10 - (12:00) -- Ultimate embarrassment for

'Canes, losing as 3-TD chalks. Have allowed 100 pts & 1,492 yds past 3 gms,

& their running game is now a question. Tigers did it to NCSt, but 6 takeaways

were key, & check only 62 RYpg in their last 4 ACC games. 'Cane bounceback.

MISSOURI 31 - Kansas State 17 - (12:30) -- Tigers have been outscored 44-3,

since taking 17-0 lead over OkieSt. Allowed only 8 FDs LW, but were killed by

the TO & big play in loss to Neb. Overland game suddenly iffy, but Smith will do

his thing vs 'Cat "D" which has allowed >30 pts in 5 of last 7 outings. Tiger call.

WEST VIRGINIA (HC) 44 - Temple 20 - (1:00) -- Mounties dominant overland of

late, with RYs edges of 309-97, 279-66, & 267-87 last 3, but they have little or

no breathing room, ATS. Owls, who have allowed 45, 45, & 45 pts in 3 of last

4 RGs, are rested, off 475 yd effort at UConn. Slightest puppy shade in this.

Georgia 45 - KENTUCKY 10 - (1:00) -- Greene has now tied Payton Manning as

the winningest starting QB ever: 39 victories. 'Dawgs are caught in a Fla/Aub

sandwich here, but they need some competition in order for that to work, & the

'Cats hardly provide any. Check UK's 267-70 RYpg deficit last 4 outings. Ugly.

ARMY 38 - Air Force 34 - (1:00) -- Cadets couldn't handle chalk role, after 3 easy

******. Averaging 240 RYs & 234 PYs past 3, but have nation's worst "D".

Falcs welcome that stat, but allowing 42 ppg last 3, themselves. Entertaining.

SYRACUSE 31 - Pittsburgh 20 - (1:30) -- 'Cuse came from 279-66 RY deficit to

281-121 in a week. Only 17 FDs, along with a 12½ minute disadvantage LW,

but registered 5 sacks vs UConn. Pitt is rested, has ND & WV up next, & was

outstatted in its only 2 easy wins this year (Rutgers & OhioU). A dog series.

Virginia Tech 31 - NORTH CAROLINA 16 - (1:30) -- How about that! Tars rolled

up 30 FDs, along with 545 yds in epic upset of Miami, winning on 42-yd FG as

time ran out. Nothing fluky about it. Hokies trailed GT 20-12 with 5½ left. Won

34-20. Tech's 8th rated "D" should put clamps on elated Heels. Not involved.

Kent State 28 - BUFFALO 21 - (1:30) -- Bulls rested off running for 202 yds vs

Marshall's 14th rated rush "D". Host is on 6-0 ATS run in UB games, but note

that Kent is only 11 pts from an 11-1 ATS run, & QB Cribbs is simply on fire.

ADDED GAMES

North Texas 41 - LAFAYETTE 37 TROY STATE 35 - Fla-Atlantic 30

Arkansas State 27 - IDAHO 21 MONROE 17 - Utah State 13

Middle Tennessee State 33 - NEW MEXICO STATE 30

NFL KEY RELEASES

BALTIMORE over Cleveland RATING: 2

SAN DIEGO over New Orleans RATING: 3

WASHINGTON over Detroit RATING: 4

ST LOUIS over New England RATING: 4

CINCINNATI over Dallas RATING: 5

VEGAS LINE

New York Jets 20 - BUFFALO 10 - (1:00) -- Bills have now taken 2 of last 3,

after 0-4 start. Just 210 yds and 12 FDs vs the Cards, but 38 pts, which is

their most in their last 21 games. Altho McGahee ran for 2 TDs & 102 yds,

note that 4 of Buffalo's 5 TDs came on a KO return, & long punt returns, which

staked them to drives of only 19, 11, & 30 yds. Hard to be involved in this one,

as 14 of the last 18 games involving the Jets have been decided by 7 pts or

less SU. Bills catch NY off its Monday Nighter, but the Jets are 8-1 ATS off

that showcase, & 7-1-1 ATS as chalks of 4 pts or less. It's a rarity for this next

tidbit, but Buffalo is just 1-10 ATS in division play, after scoring at least 35 pts.

PITTSBURGH 23 - Philadelphia 20 - (1:00) -- We called LW's upset of the Pats

by these smoking Steelers, who've gone 5-0 both SU & ATS since the insertion

of Roethlisberger at QB. He is now the 4th rated passer in the NFL, and

he gets plenty of help from a revitalized Staley (126 RYs vs NewEngland), who

leads the NFL's 5th best overland unit. Pitt is averaging 30 ppg in its last 4

outings, & the host is 9-2 SU in Steeler games. The Eagles present the rare

opportunity of consecutive wins over then-perfect squads. Philly has been a

study in efficiency. McNabb: 14 TDs, only 3 INTs. Owens: 9 TDs. But Eags'

last 2 non-division RGs: ½ pt cover; 4 pt ATS loss. Philly is 9-18-1 ATS visiting

AFC squads, while Pitt is 22-9 ATS in the 2nd of 2 HGs. Call another upset.

Washington 19 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- The 'Skins have failed to top 18 pts in

any of their 7 games to date, so we go out on a limb, & call for 19 here. Wash

went from 222 RYs in its final game before its bye, to an anemic 81 hosting the

Packers. The Skins nailed 3 interceptions off Favre, but a pair of crucial penalties

killed their chances in that one. Wash brings its NFL top rated defense

for the Lions' 32nd & bottom ranked offense to ******. Detroit's loss at Dallas

marked its first road failure, & despite the fact that the Lions are a winning

team at the moment, they've averaged only 17 pts in their last 22 games, &

have dropped their last 2 hosters by 12½ & 25 pts ATS. 'Skins 14-2 ATS as

Nov dogs, while Lions are 8-22 ATS as non-division chalks. Grab the FG spot.

CINCINNATI 23 - Dallas 19 - (1:00) -- 'Boys in off snapping 3-game slide, thanks

mainly to a 19-of-24 showing for Vinny (3 TDs), altho he was far from perfect,

by also tossing 3 INTs. And note George chipping in with 99 RYS for the 26th

rated rushing "O". Cincy always seems to be struggling (just 57 RYs at Tenn),

but can't ignore upsetting Denver in its last HG. The host is on a 12-5 ATS run

in Bengal games, while Dallas is 0-7 ATS on the non-division road, by 10½,

7½, 20½, 8½, 16, 13, & 17½ pts. That's as impressive a string of failures as

you are going to find. 'Boys also 8-20 ATS on the road off a win, & 3-11 ATS on

the AFC road. Cincy is 7-0 ATS as a Nov host vs a team off a win. Bengals.

CAROLINA 24 - Oakland 20 - (1:00) -- Not many teams have worse records

than the Raiders' 2-6 log, but the Panthers qualify, along with Miami & SanFran.

The Super Bowl runnerups are now 1-6 SU & on an 0-5 slide. They rank 21st

on offense, with Delhomme rated 27th among NFL starters (11 INTs). So how

can they be nearly a TD fav here? Easy. The Raiders are going from bad to

worse, with their current 5-game slide, in which they've allowed at least 30 pts

in all 5 (first time in franchise history). Try ATS losses of 10½, 12, 26, 8, &

21½ pts. But the dog is 23-5 ATS in Carolina games, & the Panthers are 1-8

ATS as favs off a SU loss. Raiders are 6-1 ATS as dogs vs the NFC. Meekly.

MIAMI 19 - Arizona 13 - (1:00) -- Well, it seems as if the Cards are returning to

their '03 form, namely money-in-the-bank at home, & money burners on the

road. In from holding Buffalo to just 12 FDs & 210 yds, but losing by 24. They

are now on a 1-10 spread run as non-division RDs, with their cover by a mere

7 pts, & their 10 losses by nearly 25 ppg. Arizona ranks 28th offensively, 2

spots ahead of the Dolphins, but Miami is 20 notches ahead of 'Zona on "D".

Catching Miami off its Monday revenge shot with the Jets can't hurt, but the

Fish are 6-2 ATS off NY, & 5-0 ATS favs vs NFC West. Wannstedt is 11-4

ATS at home vs <.500 foes, & Miami covered last non-division HG by 22 pts.

SCORE FD ATT-RY ATT-CO-PY PL-YDS I-F

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES 5-1 LAST WEEK!

Kansas City 23 - TAMPA BAY 22 - (1:00) -- Wow again! The Chiefs certainly

appear back in business, with incredible 70 FDs the past 2 weeks, en route to

101 pts, 475 RYs, & 1,131 TYs, vs the likes of Atlanta & Indianapolis, a pair of

squads with a combined record of 9-3 before facing KC. Holmes has 7 TDs in

those 2, while Green is in off a 389 PY performance. But the dog is 5-0 ATS in

Chief non-division RGs of late, & KC is only 1-7 ATS as a RF vs the NFC, as

well as 0-5 ATS on the Nov road off a pair of wins. The Bucs, who are only 10

pts from a 2-14 ATS slide, are 10-2-1 ATS as HDs, & 14-1 ATS as Nov dogs.

NEW YORK GIANTS 24 - Chicago 19 - (4:05) -- The Giants continue as one of

the more pleasant NFL surprises. Losing by 15 at home to the still questionable

Lions was hardly an intro to their complete domination of the sizzling Vikes,

in Minny, no less. Another 124 RYs for the NFL's 7th rated overland game,

with Warner not affording Minny any cheap TOs. With that one, the dog in NY

games is now on a 4-0 ATS run, with ****** of 14, 19½, 22, & 27½ pts. Thus,

the gates open for a Bear play here. Note that Chicago is just 24 pts from a

solid 15-2 ATS run, & also that the visitor has covered 5-of-7 games involving

Chicago. NY is 2-11 ATS as HF of >4½ pts, and the series dog is 6-0 ATS.

Seattle 27 - SAN FRANCISCO 13 - (4:05) -- Revenge shot for the Niners, who

were thoroughly beaten by the Seahawks, to the tune of 34-0 in week #3. But

before jumping on the revenge bandwagon, note that SanFran is ailing at QB,

& is still searching for an overland game. Going with Dorsey at QB, but he led

the Niners to exactly no offensive TDs in their Sunday night fiasco at Chicago,

with a rather feeble 16-of-36 vs the Bears 23th ranked "D". Niners have now

allowed 27.5 ppg in their last 10 tilts. Seattle back on track, off Hasselbeck's

20-of-27 showing vs Carolina, along with 195 RYs from Alexander. Niners just

8-15 ATS as dogs vs winning teams, & 1-10 ATS off 2 RGs vs a foe off a win.

SAN DIEGO 34 - New Orleans 20 - (4:05) -- We aren't about to dismount from

this horse. The surprising Chargers are now tied with Denver, atop the AFC

West, via their current 4-1 SU run (21-20 loss at Atlanta), covering all 5. And

in those 5, Brees is a spectacular 100-of-135. SanDiego is averaging 35½ ppg

at home thus far, & has covered its last 2 non-division HGs by 23½ & 16 pts.

And the Chargers are 18-7 ATS off a SU win of at least 15 pts. The Saints

have had their moments, & it is worth noting that the visitor is on a 15-5-1 ATS

run in NewOrleans games, including 6-1 this season. But cannot see NFL's

worst "D" containing this clicking team. That's right. We ride this steed again.

ST LOUIS 27 - New England 20 - (4:15) -- Well, the Pats' record run stopped at

21. Not too shabby. Couldn't get it done vs the Steelers, without Dillon (thigh),

in their 220-1 RY deficit. Didn't run the ball once in the entire 2nd half of that

one. Almost a given that they will come storming back to begin yet another run,

but before any thought of an automatic NewEngland play here, note that the

Pats, who are on a 17-5-2 line run, are hardly world beaters on the non-division

road, are 0-9 ATS as chalks off a SU loss, & are 4-12-1 ATS as Nov chalks.

Rams, of course, remember the '01 Super bowl, & are 20-9 ATS hosting AFC.

DENVER 26 - Houston 17 - (4:15) -- Broncos continue to underachieve vs nondivision

teams. How about their current 1-13-1 spread run vs those squads?

In off a 195-66 RY deficit hosting Atlanta, with Droughns suddenly struggling.

The Texans have been one of the major surprises, & are currently on a 4-1 SU

& ATS run, with their only miss in OT vs the Vikings. Covered their last nondivision

RG by 10½, but they are 0-6 ATS on the road off a cover, while the

Broncos are 21-7-2 ATS off a SU home loss, as well as 39-17-2 ATS at home,

vs an opponent off a SU win. And Shanahan is 7-2 ATS off a pair of setbacks.

The line in this one has dropped approximately a FG in light of LW's results.

BALTIMORE 30 - Cleveland 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- The Brownies are rested, off

a couple of stellar efforts, blasting the Bengals, with a 459-188 yd edge (14-pt

cover), & taking the Eagles into OT, before finally losing (4-pt cover). But this

week's task is a bit more difficult. The Ravens well remember their opening

week loss to Cleveland, altho it was the TO (3-0 deficit) which proved the real

killer, as Baltimore held the Browns to just 10 FDs. The chalk is on a 15-7-1

ATS run in Raven games, & Baltimore is 28-10 ATS vs losing teams, as well as

12-1-1 ATS after being held below 13 pts. Browns' road log is sorely lacking.

MONDAY NIGHT

INDIANAPOLIS 41 - Minnesota 30 - (9:05 - ABC) -- Note that no early line has

been posted here, due to Moss' hamstring injury. If he is ready, this one could be

a true classic, much in the mold of LW's Colt game with the Chiefs. Two straight

losses for Indy for 1st time in 30 games, despite 57 FDs & 952 yds in that pair.

Manning & Culpepper: 22 & 20 TDs, with just 4 & 5 INTs, respectively. Indy has

scored 38, 34, 38, 41, 45, & 35 pts in 6 of its last 7 non-division HGs, & shouldn't

be contained by Minny's 29th ranked "D". Colts are 6-2 ATS as Monday HFs, but

Vikes are 5-2 ATS as Monday RDs. But Minny is 1-10 ATS as RD vs foes off a

SU & spread loss, & 1-12 ATS before facing GreenBay. Colts can't lose 3 straight.

NFL

('04) NEW YORK JETS 7 over Buffalo ....... ( 16-14)

('03) Buffalo 1 over NEW YORK JETS ........ ( 3-30)

('03) BUFFALO 3 over New York Jets ......... ( 17- 6)

('02) NEW YORK JETS 3 over Buffalo ........ ( 31-13)

('02) New York Jets 3 over BUFFALO (OT) ( 37-31)

('00) PITTSBRGH 3½ over Phila'phia (OT) ( 23-26)

('97) Pittsburgh 3 over PHILADELPHIA....... ( 20-23)

('00) Washington 5½ over DETROIT............ ( 10-15)

('99) WASHINGTON 7 over Detroit (Playoff) ( 27-13)

('99) DETROIT 3 over Washington ............... ( 33-17)

('00) DALLAS 7 over Cincinnati ................... ( 23- 6)

('97) CINCINNATI 6 over Dallas ................... ( 31-24)

('00) OAKLAND 10 over Carolina ................ ( 52- 9)

('97) CAROLINA 3 over Oakland ................. ( 38-14)

('99) MIAMI 9 over Arizona .......................... ( 19-16)

('98) Miami 6 over ARIZONA ....................... ( 38-10)

('99) TAMPA BAY 3 over Kansas City .......... ( 17-10)

('00) CHICAGO 2 over New York Giants .... ( 7-14)

('95) Chicago 3 over NEW YORK GIANTS .. ( 27-24)

('04) SEATTLE 10 over San Francisco ........ ( 34- 0)

('03) SEATTLE 3 over San Francisco ......... ( 20-19)

('03) Seattle even with SAN FRACISCO ..... ( 24-17)

('02) San Francisco 3 over SEATTLE ......... ( 28-21)

('02) SAN FRANCISCO 8½ over Seattle ..... ( 31-24)

('00) SAN DIEGO 5½ over New Orleans .... ( 27-28)

('97) NEW ORLEANS 2 over San Diego ..... ( 6-20)

('01) St Louis 14 over N Englnd (Super Bwl) ( 17-20)

('01) St Louis 8 over NEW ENGLAND ......... ( 24-17)

('98) New England 7 over ST LOUIS ........... ( 18-32)

('04) Baltimore 3 over CLEVELAND ............ ( 3-20)

('03) Baltimore 3 over CLEVELAND ........... ( 35- 0)

('03) BALTIMORE 2½ over Cleveland ......... ( 33-13)

('02) BALTIMORE 2½ over Cleveland ......... ( 13-14)

('02) CLEVELAND 6 over Baltimore ........... ( 21-26)

('00) INDIANAPOLIS 6 over Minnesota ....... ( 31-10)

('97) MINNESOTA 6½ over Indianapolis ...... ( 39-28)