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Date/Time: Tuesday June 16 / 7:10PM EST
Sport/Type: MLB / Side
Game: Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds
Graded Selection: 2* Cincinnati Reds +120
Analysis:
Great American Ballpark will be the site of a three-game set between the host Cincinnati Reds and the visiting Atlanta Braves.
The Braves have struggled of late and will be looking to avoid their fifth loss in their last six games overall. Atlanta lost a three-game set at Baltimore over the weekend losing two of the three games including Sunday’s 11 to 2 defeat.
The Braves will send right-hander Jair Jurrjens to the bump for the series opener he has a record of 5-4 W/L on the season with an ERA of 2.85. Jurrjens has not only been let down by Braves shortstop Yunel Escobar’s defensive lapses the Braves have only managed to plate two or fewer runs in seven of his thirteen trips to the hill. This will be only his second start versus this Reds team who gave him a rude welcome in his first outing by scoring six runs in 4 1/3 innings of an 8 to 7 loss back in 08.
The Reds will counter with right-hander Aaron Harang who is 5-6 W/L with an ERA of 3.74 this season. Harang has not managed a win in his last three trips to the hill but he has pitched well of late other than a tough outing versus the Brewers at the end of May his ERA is only 2.28 in his other four most recent starts. In fact his last start he held the Nationals scoreless for 7 2/3 innings of a twelve inning contest that the Reds eventually won 4 to 2 with Harang not involved in the decision. Harang has not faced the Braves since 07 and he has a 1-2 W/L record in five starts with an ERA of 3.48.
Atlanta is 18-38 W/L their last 56 when facing teams from the NL East, 12-27 W/L their last 39 when installed as a road favorite and 8-23 W/L their last 31 as a road favorite of -150 or less.
With the Reds starter Harang coming off an excellent outing his last time to the hill it qualifies Cincinnati in a powerful MLB System that tells us to Play On MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or better with a team batting .240 or worse over their last ten games, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last start. This system is 75-50 W/L for 60 percent winners, remember we are playing on underdogs only and this system has shown a profit of +41.20 Units over those 125 games.
We also note that the Reds respond well after giving up five or more runs in their last game posting a record of 19-7 W/L their last 26 in that situation.
With significant fundamental and technical support for the host we will back the Reds at Great American on Tuesday night as they grab game one of this series and cash a nice underdog ticket for us.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Cincinnati Reds 4 Atlanta Braves 3
