dr bob

Tuesday Night Best Bet

Tuesday, November 2

**MIAMI – OHIO (-5) 40 Toledo 26

I went against Toledo for a 3-Star win in their most recent game, a 27-22 win over Central Michigan as a 24 point favorite, and the Rockets remain overrated. Toledo’s offense has posted very good numbers (6.6 yards per play and 37 points per game), but the Rockets have faced a schedule of mostly bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.2 yppl and 35.1 points to an average team – so Toledo is really just 0.4 yppl better than average offensively. Miami-Ohio’s defense has allowed 5.2 yppl or less in 6 of their 7 games this season, including just 4.0 yppl at Michigan, but one horrible defensive effort against Cincinnati in game 2 (9.1 yppl allowed) has them rated at 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 4.4 yppl against an average defense). Toledo quarterback Bruce Gradkowski should have pretty good success throwing the football in this game, but their rush attack will be just mediocre and they won’t be able to score enough points to keep up with what their horrible defense allows in this game. Toledo’s defense has given up 5.9 yppl this season (to teams that would average just 4.8 yppl against an average defensive team) and Miami’s Josh Betts (7.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback) will have an easy time throwing against a horrendous Rockets’ secondary that has surrendered 7.5 yppl to a slate of opposing quarterbacks that would average only 5.0 yppl against an average defense. Toledo has given up 8.4 yppp or more in 4 of their 8 games despite facing only one better than average pass attack (Minnesota, who tallied 289 yards on just 13 pass plays). Miami’s pass attack hasn’t been quite as good since the injury to top receiver Martin Nance a few weeks ago, but I’ve adjusted for that by using only Betts’ passing stats since Nance has been out and my math model still favors the Redhawks by 9 ½ points in this game.

What makes this a Best Bet is a very good 43-8 ATS home favorite momentum situation that is based on the Redhawks’ recent outstanding defensive performances (only 7 points allowed in each of their last 2 games). Toledo also hasn’t played nearly as well away from home (17-19-3 ATS) as they have at home (24-12 ATS), especially in competitive games against winning teams – they’re just 3-10-2 ATS away from home against winning teams when favored by 3 points or less or getting points. I’ll lay 7 points or less with Miami-Ohio in a 2-Star Best Bet.