Here's my hoops card:
11:00 AM CST tip:
Missouri Valley:
Northern Iowa @ Drake:
I'm rollin the under 126 1/2.
Here's why, let's look at past matchups on paper:
PREVIOUS MEETINGS
Date Matchup Line Total ATS Result
02/16/08 Drake 65 @ Northern Iowa 55 DRAKE -2 127.0 DRAKE/U
01/26/08 Northern Iowa 54 @ Drake 58 DRAKE -9.0 122.0 NIOWA/U
02/08/07 Drake 67 @ Northern Iowa 59 NIOWA -7.5 137.0 DRAKE/U
01/27/07 Northern Iowa 61 @ Drake 74 NIOWA -2 XX DRAKE/
Both teams have a lot of new starters and both teams play great defense. Drake does like to run and gun, and that's one reason I'm not going large on this. As a valley fan, I can tell you this game usually is low scoring and tight as UNI and Drake are big rivals and very close to each other in the Midwest. Drake should win and cover, but I'm going to roll the under. In their last 4 games, UNI's defense is averaging 57.75points allowed..and that's against the offensive minded teams like Creighton and Mo State. Drake is allowing an average of 60 points even in their last 4..I personally believe as a former hooper that this is the time of year where conference is starting and defenses rule. You add those averages together and factor in the fact that they usually play slow ball and we have what looks like a low 20's total with No OT>
2** on UNI/Drake under 126 1/2
Big XII:
12:30 PM CST
I like ISU and Mizzou to keep it under 139 today. Both teams are playing very good defense even though Mizzou is running and gunning on both ends of the floor. ISU is a defensive first team..look at their last 10 and Mizzou's last 10:
Iowa State Last 10 Games
Date Matchup Line Total ATS Result
01/14/09 NEB 53 @ IOWAST 65 +1 W/
01/10/09 IOWAST 67 @ TEXAS 75 +17.5 130.0 W/O
01/06/09 HOUBAP 56 @ IOWAST 64 /
01/03/09 SIU 55 @ IOWAST 91 /
12/31/08 MERCER 49 @ IOWAST 67 /
12/28/08 IOWAST 71 @HOU 67 +13 W/
12/23/08 SDST 65 @IOWAST 58 /
12/20/08 JKVLST 60 @ IOWAST 66 -5.0 W/
12/12/08 IOWAST 57 @ IOWA 73 +8 116.5 L/O
12/09/08 DRAKE 66 @IOWAST 63 -4.0 XX L/U
NOTICE IOWA STATE has allowed over 70 only once since the beginning of December.
Mizzou's last 10:
Missouri Last 10 Games
Date Matchup Line Total ATS Result
01/14/09 COL 62 @ MISSOU 107 -17.5 138.0 W/O
01/10/09 MISSOU 51 @ NEB 56 -3.5 135.5 L/U
01/06/09 COPPST 55 @ MISSOU 88 /
01/03/09 MISSOU 83 @GA 76 -7.5 L/
12/30/08 CENTRY 52 @ MISSOU 80 /
12/27/08 SIU 57 @ MISSOU 107 /
12/23/08 ILL 75 @MISSOU 59 -3.5 140.5 L/U
12/20/08 STETSN 44 @ MISSOU 78 /
12/13/08 MURRAY 64 @ MISSOU 75 -18.5 XX L/U
12/07/08 CAL 66 @ MISSOU 93 -7.5 W/
Mizzou is scoring high, but can be slowed down like Nebraska did. Notice that total didn't even threaten the number and this is a very similar game. With Mizzou being such a big favorite (ISU usually covers at Mizzou as well winning once and losing by 5 in their last 2 games in Columbia) an ISU's propensity to hold teams to 70 or less..we should hit this one nicely. I like ISU as a side too but will only play the total and use ISU in parley filler.
2** on Mizzou under 140
Missouri Valley:
Creighton @ WSU
2:00 PM CST tip
Yet another total. I'm rollin on Creighton/WSU under 130 1/2. The Jays are hot and need this win big time. But Wichita is a trap game sometimes (although not this year IMO) and it's usually a defensive struggle. You guys know I love the Valley and Creighton is my team, and I will tell you this from watching the Jays the last 15 years....we always struggle offensively in Kansas. This game should go way under the total unless Creighton builds a huge lead. But if it's a tight game like I expect, I can't see it being offensive. WSU will slow down Creighton and play their new matchup zone to neutralized Stinnett's slashing and their outside bombers. Caleb Korver is the third brother in a long line who play in the Midwest, but I think he and the rest of the 3point bombers are going to have trouble today in Wichita.
3*** on Creighton/WSU under 130 1/2 (what I just booked at this morning..lots of movement..going up right now in favor of us)
Big XII:
1:00 PM CST tip
I'm finally playing a side, and it's a dog. Roll with me on Texas A and M to take it to Oklahoma at home this afternoon. The Sooners are my darkhorse to play UNC in the national championship, but this has trap written all over it. A and M is a good team that plays solid at home. They are riding high after beating #21 Baylor and they can get in the top 25 with a win against Oklahoma. This game is going to be a war and I really look forward to watching it. Here' s some numbers for ya:
92% of pub on Oklahoma
Oklahoma has lost (badly) their last 2 trips to College Station.
A and M has beaten Bama, Baylor, LSU and some other notable. Oklahoma looked great beating Texas at home, but I think we see a great opportunity here. A and M is going to be jacked for this game. A win and their in the top 25 and fighting for the Big XII title. Should be a great game.
2** on Texas A and M +4
GL today...3-1 or better and I'll post on the NBA tonight, but after looking at that card I'm gonna focus on college and the futbol and UFC I got going. Got a lot of bets today, but playing with house money and I like all of them. BEWARE: I've had a pretty good week, let's hope it doesn't get ugly, but I do like these plays.
Let's Roll
