4 replies

1. 0 likes

   my picks:

   Main Event: I'll roll with Hendo to TCOB against Ace.

   2.5 units to win 2 units on Dan Henderson -125

   I like Lytle to pull the upset on the Irish Hand Grenade. Marcus is fun to watch and strikes with reckless abandon, but Lytle is a little napoleon in the ring and as long as his cardio is there, I think he wins a decision.

   2 units to win 2.5 units on Chris Lytle +125

   Long shots:

   1 unit on Mark Coleman +330 over Shogun. I personally think Shogun is one of the most overrated fighters in the game. IF coleman has anything in the tank, he pounds out a win in the 3rd.

   1 unit to win 3.3 units

   1 unit on the Talent Alan Belcher. Kang is a good fighter and should be the favorite, but Belcher wins about 1 of these fights a year and his athleticism might get him the submission today.

   1 unit to win 3.2 units

   GL today

   

   posted by pc7588

   Jan. 17 2009 5:32am
2. 0 likes

   This card is in the UK..it goes off at 1:00PM CST here in the STates.

   

   posted by pc7588

   Jan. 17 2009 6:04am
3. 0 likes

   Looks like we are clashing on a few im just gonna copy and past my plays in so some of the line have moved a bit

   UFC 93 1/17

   Marcus Davis over Chris Lytle 5u/ 4.3u – (Can get -145 now at 5dimes, at -145 i would have only played for 3u) Just think Davis is a step up from Lytle in all aspects of his game. Don’t see why this is almost a pick. Davis wins this fight 80% plus to me. Was expecting to see -250/-300. Both have boxed professionally and Davis was better going 18-1. It appears that his BJJ is better, he uses it much more, winning several fights in the UFC on the ground. Davis trains with a better camp, I don’t even know if Lytle has gone full time yet, don’t think so. I don’t use MMA math much, but Davis finished Taylor in the first (he did get rocked at one point, which he says is the only time in his career he has been dropped), and I thought Lytle lost to Taylor. Davis destroyed Paul Kelly, who completely dominated Taylor earlier this year. Davis was close to breaking into the upper echelon before his fight withSwick, whoich went the distance and was basically a pickem with the books. Davis also says he was hurt for fight. Doesn’t add up, Davis/Swick pickem, Davis/Lytle pickem as well??????? Lytle always wants a stand up bettle and Davis has superior standup. More versitle, I expect buy back opportunity here as well.

   Alan Belcher over Dennis Kang .5u/1.5u (not as big of a fan of Belcher t current numbers)- Honestly, this was just a flier because +300 seemed too high. Havnt seen enough of Kang, but I know he struggled last year or two. Belcher stand up is always impressive and evolving and lokking for a possible prefight scalp here.

   Schafer over Mendes 2u/1.5u (-135 bodog) - I think Schafer will win this one by submission late first or second. Really depends on how much Mendes has developed his ground game. Mendes is training with ATT now, but I believe he is relatively new there and it is hard to see fireworks over night. His win over "baby fedor" in early 08 was by cut and he was dominated in the fight. He was takin down at will and Sidelnikov advanced positions farely easiliy. Mendes caught Silva with the high kick, but i think Silva is overrated and Schafer has a good chin. He survivied the early Houston Alexander onslaught, taking some bombs on the chin, and he was walking right through Bisping securring takedowns with ease. Barring a drastic imprivmenet on the ground by Mendes, or a early ko. Schafer will get his takedowns and secure a sub. His bjj is top notch.

   Franlin over Henderon by Dec 1u/3.1u (+315 5dimes) - I think there is great value here. I got Franklin as a small favorite, but we all know how hard it will be to finish Henderson. If Franklin wins this fight 55% of time i think 40% are by decision. Basically, I have to question if Hendersen isnt on the decline. His gas tank didnt look good against Palhares or Silva, he admited that he didnt have the tank in the 2nd rd v. Silva. Gas never seems to be an issue with Franklin. He is younger, has taken far less damage. He will win the 3rd round. Just needs to take 1 of first 2. I think he has better striking, footwork, leg kicks and bjj. Hedersen will win this fight if he catches him with a bomb standing or when he is in guard and Franklins head is pressed on the ground. He will try to pin Franklin against cage where him donw and take him down, but I think Franklin will be too elusive on the feet to get cught up in a maul n brawl.

   Also played Palhares at -315 at Bookmaker, it is hard for me to recommend playing at anything over -400, but if you can find a better number he were my thoughts

   Palhares over Horn 2u/.6u I thought the -420/-435 that opened up other places was far more accurate. Horn, frankly, just doesnt seem to have it anymore. According to reports from BTT, Palhares is one of the hardest working guys ever to come out of Brazil, so I dont see him losing focus. Whereas Horn has looked awful of late. Dominating early round loses to Lister, MArquardt and Santiago are an indication of whats to come imo. I know he is promoting his own fights out in Utah which has gotta be spreading his energy thin. The Horn of the last two years looks like he is in it for a paycheck and i think this line is too low. I expect Palhares to hurt Horn early and finish with TKO or RNC.

   n all

   Davis over Lytle 5u/4.3u - could have scalped back some of the -115 at a better price which i originally planned on doing. But i just think Davis is far superior in all aspects of the game and i will just roll with it. One of my larger plays ever.

   Schafer over Mendes 2u/1.6u

   Palhares over Horn 2u/.6u

   Franklin over Hendo by Dec 1u/3.1u

   Belcher over Kang .5u/1.5u - still get Kang at -245 at 5dimes, but i will forgo the small free play and take my chances that Kang gets caught, do not recommend playing Belcher at the current number.

   

   posted by terpkeg

   Jan. 17 2009 10:18am
4. 0 likes

   Good stuff Terp...

   We have the same logic on Belcher..let's hope that athleticism scores for us.

   Man, you really love Davis...I think Lytle has all the tools in the box, but his cardio has always been the question. If he gets Davis down, should be a submission win. However, with that being said, Davis is unstoppable in the UK although I think this fight is his toughest to date in the UK.

   We totally disagree on Hendo/Ace...GL on that bad boy but I got backl Hollywood.

   You going to watch them live or wait for tonight? I'll probably watch this afternoon, but won't post the results if your gonna wait until tonight.

   

   posted by pc7588

   Jan. 17 2009 12:15pm