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   THE SPORTS MEMO

   EAGLEBANK BOWL

   Navy vs. Wake Forest -3 O/U 42

   Saturday, December 20, 11 am ET ESPN - Washington, D.C.

   Recommendation: Wake Forest

   We have somewhat of an advantage when analyzing this matchup

   because both teams met earlier this year. Wake Forest was 3-0 at the time and off a huge win at Florida State with Clemson on deck. Navy was also off a big win, beating Rutgers 23-21. At 2-2 and getting 17-points, not much respect was afforded the Midshipmen.

   The situationals pointed to Navy and we backed the Midshipmen plus the points in that week’s newsletter. The outcome,

   however, was at the time surprising. Navy rushed for 292 yards while the Demon Deacons posted just 43. Forced to play from behind, quarterback Riley Skinner threw four interceptions and was not sharp. On the season, Navy’s run game was once again strong despite a litany of injuries

   at the quarterback position. The defense was vastly improved from previous editions and a new aspect of Midshipmen football entered the equation: turnover margin. In 2007, Navy was -2 for the season, with only 16 takeaways. This season the +16 turnover margin and the 29 takeaways

   were the key factors leading to success. Wake’s success also hinged on the ability to force turnovers with a +16 margin. Over the last three seasons, the Demon Deacons own a +38 advantage. Offensively Skinner gets a lot of praise for being a savvy veteran but under head coach Jim Grobe, the Wake quarterback play has never been a strength. Only three times in Grobe’s eight years as the head coach has his quarterback thrown more touchdowns than interceptions. Skinner was able to accomplish

   that feat this season but in his last four games, he was far from productive. He failed to throw for more than 200 yards and he tossed three interceptions with just four touchdowns. His inability to produce goes beyond a conservative game plan as Wake Forest couldn’t run the ball on a consistent basis. Their 3.62 ypc Accu-Stat number was one of the nation’s worst and 2008 marked the fourth straight season that the Demon Deacons rushed for progressively

   less yards (111.6) per game. Our analysis must answer the question

   of whether Navy was undervalued in the first meeting or if the gap between these two teams should be adjusted by more than 10 points. As we see it, Wake is still the better team and we now get them at a discount. For Wake, the first matchup was a horrible situation that manifested six turnovers. This time around several advantages are in play for Wake. Most significantly, this will be the third time in two seasons that Wake Forest will face this unique offense. Secondly, Grobe has used several components

   of the option attack in his offenses and with the extra time to prepare, should present a solid game plan on defense. His charges should also benefit with the extra motivation to avenge this season’s earlier defeat. If Wake Forest can take care of the football and play to its averages on both sides of the ball, the results should yield a Demon Deacon spread-covering win.

   NEW MEXICO BOWL

   Fresno State vs. Colorado State +3 O/U 60

   Saturday, December 20, 2:30 pm ET ESPN - ALBUQUERQUE

   Recommendation: Colorado State

   Some, including Head Coach Pat Hill, considered Fresno State to be a preseason BCS contender. With a big road win at Rutgers to kick off the season many doubters became believers. Things didn’t quite work out in the following game as they got beat 13-10 at home by Wisconsin. Off that loss, the Bulldogs seemed to struggle

   to find motivation and were never able to recover. In looking back however maybe the reality was that this Fresno State team just wasn’t very good. While Fresno State has always seemed to be able to step up in class, their failure to consistently produce against lesser foes has been their undoing. Since 2000 Fresno is just 26-44 ATS in WAC play despite posting a solid 24-16 ATS non-conference result. Another alarming stat is their inability to bounce back. During that same span, the Bulldogs are a startling 9-29 ATS off a loss. Finding motivation in the New Mexico Bowl against a 6-6 Colorado State team is likely to be difficult for any team with such high early season aspirations. On the other side of the equation, Colorado State is bowl eligible for the first time since 2005 and the overall thought is that the Rams are very excited to be in a bowl game. First-year head coach Steve Fairchild did a solid job in getting the Rams bowl eligible. He replaced Sonny Lubick who stepped down after the Rams posted a combined 7-17 record in 2006 and 2007. Fundamentally, in the age of spread offenses, Hill’s Fresno State squad lines up in the ace formation and runs a pro-style offense. The overall balance and success of the offense was illustrated by the 2,122 yards rushing and 2,478 yards passing. The Bulldogs finished the season with three running backs gaining

   over 500 yards rushing and all three averaged more than five yards per carry. The Colorado State offense is lead by running back Gartrell Johnson, who ran for 1,192 yards. Dion Morton emerged down the stretch as the go-to receiver with 16 receptions for 294 yards and five touchdowns over the last three games. On defense, neither team is going to have much of an advantage. After holding Rutgers to seven points and Wisconsin to 13, Fresno suffered through a wealth of injuries and allowed 34 ppg over their final 10 games of the season. Colorado

   State showed a willingness to trade points and allowed 28 or more points in half of their games. All told, both schools should be able to pick their poison on how they want to move the football. We won’t go as far as saying FSU is simply not going to show up for this game but we don’t expect an inspired performance from the Bulldogs.

   Under Hill, FSU has been to eight bowl games posting a 4-4 SU mark in those games. When matched up against teams from the current BCS conferences his teams are 4-1 SU and ATS with all four wins coming in the role of the underdog. In the three other Bowl Games against non-BCS teams, Fresno is 0-3 straight up. Motivation is important and with little difference in talent between the two teams we’ll choose to back the one that has motivation on its side.

   ST. PETERSBURG BOWL - ST. PETERSBURG, FLA.

   South Florida vs. Memphis +13 O/U 52

   Saturday, December 20, 4:30 pm ET ESPN2

   Recommendation: Memphis

   Does getting to stay close to home for the holidays and playing a non-BCS team with a .500 record outweigh the benefits of participating in a New Year’s Day bowl? That issue of motivation will be on display as South Florida was clearly expecting bigger and better things this season.

   Unfortunately those bigger and better things didn’t come close to happening as the Bulls finished with a 7-5 record after an impressive

   5-0 start. On the other hand, we are likely to get a maximum effort

   from Memphis as they will be plenty motivated and excited to be playing in this game. The Tigers opened the season 0-3 and over the course of the season played four different quarterbacks due to injuries. Despite the injuries and the slow start, they finished the season

   at 6-6. On the personnel front, the Tigers also have a healthy Arkelon Hall, their original starter at quarterback, back in the lineup. Both of these teams were blown out in bowl games last year, as South Florida was manhandled by Oregon, 56-21, while Memphis lost to Florida Atlantic, 44-27. I would expect that to be a part of both coaches’ motivational

   tactics as they prepare for this game. Still the motivation for South Florida would seem lacking. Memphis

   was 1-3 against bowl teams, beating Southern Miss and losing to East Carolina, Ole Miss and Rice. South Florida played a much tougher schedule and faced seven bowl participants, beating Kansas, NC State and Connecticut. On the losing side of the ledger was Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia. Fundamentally, South Florida’s biggest problem this season was offensive mistakes. They have good numbers; rushing for 4.71 ypc, throwing for 6.32 ypp and averaging 387 yards per game. However, they failed to convert those yards into points down the stretch. The Bulls averaged just 24.7 points per game for the year, but in their last five games, they averaged just 16 points per contest. Turnovers were common in those last five games as they were 1-4 despite out gaining three of those five opponents. Defensively,

   Memphis is not going to wow anyone whereas South Florida boats better athletes and more speed. The Bulls however did struggle against the pass allowing 6.27 ypp. Memphis had good offensive numbers despite their injury problems. The Tigers ran for 5.22 ypc and threw for 6.40 ypp, a number that would have been much better if Hall had been healthy all year. They have a big group of receivers and the time off should allow Hall and company to reclaim their timing. In games in which Hall played, the Tigers averaged close to 300 yards per game through the air. It sounds too easy but I firmly believe this is a situation where the favorite is likely to be lacking in the intensity department. Keep in mind, USF’s season finale against West Virginia -- a game they ironically

   covered -- stopped a streak of 19 straight games in which they were favored. During that 19 game span, they were just 11-8 straight up. In this meeting we get another chance to play against them in the role of a favorite. Adding to our advantage is the fact that this team laying nearly two touchdowns. We will certainly be backing the Tigers and it may be worth it to take a small flyer on the money line as well.

   LAS VEGAS BOWL

   BYU +3 vs. Arizona O/U 62

   Saturday, December 20, 8 pm ET ESPN - Las Vegas

   Recommendation: Arizona

   While BYU spent most of the season ranked in the top 25, the Cougars

   did not live up to their billing, losing by a combined 80-31 margin to TCU and Utah. BYU notched only two wins against bowl bound foes, beating Colorado State by a field goal and Air Force by two touchdowns. Neither of those teams will be confused with an elite level squad. The cold, harsh reality for BYU supporters is that the Cougars beat up on creampuffs to earn their fourth consecutive

   trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU was a good team, not a great one, as clearly evidenced by their one-point win over Washington; a Huskies team that lost nine games by 20 points or more. The Cougars were a pointspread disaster finishing 3-8 against the spread. The defense allowed 32+ points four times in their last six games and they wore out down the stretch and looked nothing like the unit that pitched back-to-back shutouts against UCLA and Wyoming in September. More than anything, though, the Cougars lack of pointspread

   success derived from the betting marketplace overvaluing them after those two early and impressive shutouts. The offense was dynamite out of the gate but struggled with turnovers in the key losses to the Utes and Horned Frogs. BYU’s offense relies on the arm of senior quarterback Max Hall, who has thrown 60 touchdown

   passes over the last two years. Wide receiver Austin Collie and tight end Dennis Pitta are Hall’s favorite targets, both coming off 1,000-yard seasons. The Cougars have balance with 240-pound behemoth Harvey Unga, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. Unga is the type of back that Arizona has struggled to stop all year long. The Wildcats certainly weren’t an elite level team this year, and they too struggled away from home going just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing outside of Tucson. Senior

   quarterback Willie Tuitama can only be described as erratic; capable of brilliance or ineptitude on any given

   Saturday. Running back Nic Grisby had a solid season running the football

   but this offense was spotty and not consistent. It’s a similar story on the defensive side of the ball, where the Wildcats excelled against the pass, but often struggled to stop the run. The biggest question of all for Arizona is how they’ll respond to their first bowl appearance in a decade in a location

   where distractions are always an issue. BYU has enjoyed much success their recent trips to Sam Boyd Stadium. They knocked off UCLA last year, although they failed to cover the pointspread in a one-point victory. Following the 2006 campaign, Bronco Mendenhall’s

   squad hammered a distracted Oregon team 38-8. And in 2005 BYU covered the spread in a defeat over California. They’ve also beaten UNLV on this field five consecutive times over the past decade. Unlike players from many other teams, we can expect the Cougars to avoid the distractions that accompany any trip to a minor

   bowl game in Sin City. We’ll back BYU in a familiar situation

   NEW ORLEANS BOWL

   Southern Miss vs. Troy -4.5 O/U 55

   Sunday, December 21 8:15 pm ET ESPN - New Orleans

   Recommendation: Over

   Coming into the season, the Trojans had lost their starting quarterback, their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers. Yet if we eliminate the Ohio State contest and a meaningless

   mid-season non-conference affair against Western Kentucky,

   Troy averaged over 37 points per game. They started the season with Jamie Hampton at quarterback but he was injured and transfer Levi Brown replaced him. Brown outperformed his teammate en route to Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year honors. His numbers were similar to Hampton but Brown took care of the football with only three interceptions on 283 attempts. The Trojans averaged over 420 yards of total offense per game and use the short pass as a means to “run” the football. Defensively Troy was also excellent against comparable

   competition allowing just 16 points per game to Sun Belt teams. The ranked in the top 30 nationally in total and pass defense and in the top five in sacks and tackles for loss. Troy head coach Larry Blankeney has shown the ability to prepare for these big games. Two seasons ago, Troy averaged 25.2 ppg in Sun Belt play but sprung for 41 in a victory over Rice in this same New Orleans bowl. Southern Miss took its lumps in new Head Coach Larry Fedora’s offensive system but for the most part, they were improved over the course of the season. Still much of that success came from playing a soft defensive schedule.

   Overall USM’s top four offensive outputs were against UTEP, UAB, SMU and UL-Lafayette. Combined, those teams allowed 35 ppg and 451.8 ypg of total offense. Lafayette was arguably the best of the four defensively and Troy defeated the Ragin Cajuns 48-3. What we do like about Southern Miss’ offense is that it has balance gaining nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and 238 yards per game through the air. They have two key playmakers

   in running back Damion Fletcher (112.3 ypg, 6.0 ypc) and wide receiver DeAndre Brown (nation’s No. 1 freshman

   WR 1,108 yards). Maybe more importantly than any personnel is the fact that they’ll have a month to continue their improvement under a bright offensive-minded coach in Larry Fedora. Troy is on par if not ahead of Southern Miss in terms of overall talent, but you can’t discount the lack of ability in the Sun Belt outside of the Trojans. Only one team other than Troy averaged more than 30 points per game. That team, UL-Lafayette, was held to a field goal by Troy. Our opinion is that while Southern Miss is nowhere near the level of Oklahoma

   State, who racked up 55 on Troy, they are a step above a majority of the Sun Belt in terms of speed and offensive system. Additionally we won’t get too excited about USM’s defensive output the last four games of the year as those opponents combined

   to average just over 300 yards per game of total offense on the season. We feel both offenses have the ability to move the ball and this one will be a shootout that goes over the total.

   POINSETTIA BOWL

   TCU -2.5 vs. Boise State O/U 46

   Tuesday, December 23 8 pm ET ESPN - San Diego

   Recommendation: TCU

   While this game features the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked scoring defenses

   in the country, there is a significant difference between the two units. Points allowed is a key statistic but beyond those numbers, TCU is the premier defensive group in this contest. The accolades are endless but here are a few that need to be acknowledged in handicapping this game. First off, there were only two teams in the entire country this season that allowed their opponents less than four yards per play: USC (3.38) and TCU (3.77). TCU played five bowl teams this season including Oklahoma, BYU and Utah who all averaged over 35 points and 400 total yards per game. The Horned Frogs held all five bowl bound opponents to season lows in either scoring or total yards. TCU incredibly held Oklahoma to their season low of 35 points and missed limiting them to their season low in total yardage by just a yard as they allowed 436 while Texas held the Sooners to just 435. They stifled their entire schedule yielding 300 or more yards to only the Sooners. They were one of only three teams to record 40+ sacks and allowed less than 50% pass completions and 47.1 yards per game rushing. Head coach Gary Patterson’s group owned a huge 167 per game rushing yardage advantage over their opposition. They’ve been simply dominant in every defensive aspect all season long. Meanwhile Boise has been extremely good at keeping teams off the scoreboard

   but they gave up over 300 yards six times. They simply aren’t as overwhelming a group as the Horned Frogs. Postseason participants Oregon and Nevada racked up 464 yards and 385 yards respectively. With TCU being a very diverse and capable offense (215.7 rypg, 201.4 pypg), we expect them to have some success. Veteran triggerman Andy Dalton has been extraordinarily

   efficient in the passing game throwing just four interceptions on 272 attempts. His running ability makes him a legitimate dual-threat and Boise did have some trouble with Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick who totaled 311 yards. Boise freshman quarterback Kellen Moore has been equally efficient, throwing 25 touchdowns and only nine interceptions on 370 attempts. The Broncos have a slew of productive

   skill players in running backs Ian Johnson and Jeremiah Avery plus wie receivers Jeremy Childs, Vinny Perretta and Austin

   Pettis. All five of those players ranked in the WAC’s top 15 statistically at their positions. Comparing the season-long numbers

   between these teams doesn’t show much separation but thorough a deeper examination we give the clear edge to TCU. They’ll use their powerful offensive and defensive fronts along with their superior team speed to methodically control this one. Boise has not seen a defense anywhere near this class and they don’t have enough trickery to get past the Horned Frogs’ strength and speed. Look for TCU cover the less than field goal price.

   HAWAII BOWL

   Notre Dame +1.5 vs. Hawaii O/U 48

   Wednesday, December 24, 8 pm ET ESPN - Honolulu

   Recommendation: Notre Dame

   We know what the predominant story surrounding this game. It will read something like this, “Notre Dame, after a 4-1 start to the campaign limped their way into a bowl. Playing

   in Hawaii’s backyard doesn’t look conducive to breaking

   a nine-game losing streak in postseason play.” We don’t buy into that thinking. While Hawaii was struggling through their very weak WAC schedule, the Irish were in the midst of battling the likes of Michigan State, Boston College, Pitt and USC. While the results weren’t always pretty for Notre Dame, those tough opponents should have prepared them well. The Warriors offense was a work in progress seemingly all season long. They shuffled in three different

   quarterbacks throughout the year with spotty results. While they have finally settled on Greg Alexander,

   the output has remained inconsistent. Putting up 42 points on New Mexico State and Idaho is far from impressive. Probably more telling was the 14-point output against Utah State or the measly 24 they hung on Washington State – perhaps the worst FBS team in the country. Hawaii really hasn’t risen to the occasion against BCS teams. They were predictably terrible against Florida and Oregon

   State but again struggled to dispatch Washington State, who had just come off their only win this season against FBS competition. Hawaii also blew a lead over a Cincinnati squad that was as flat as a pancake after securing their first Big East title and a trip to Orange Bowl. At least we saw signs of improvement from Jimmy Clausen this season. The much maligned yet highly touted quarterback threw 20 touchdown

   passes this season. He also increased his completion percentage to near 60% and looked much more comfortable in the pocket. He still made some bonehead throws at times but largely had more highlights than lowlights. The emergence of Golden

   Tate as a game changing playmaker

   has really aided his progression

   as a quarterback. Tate averaged over 17.4 yards per catch this season while racking up over 900 yards. His eight total touchdowns led the team and he proved to be a dynamic kick and punt returner as well. When examined these two teams sport very similar stats but when we start to figure in the level

   of competition that each team faced, Notre Dame’s numbers

   look quite a bit more impressive. We don’t think the Irish simply come in and roll over Hawaii, instead we think it will be a surprisingly entertaining and hotly contested bowl. As such, it is worth noting that Hawaii was one of the worst field goal kicking teams in the country connecting on just 48% of its attempts. In a close game that can make all the difference in the world. We’ll side with Notre Dame and call for them to snap their long running losing streak in postseason play.

   MOTOR CITY BOWL

   Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -6.5 O/U 62.5

   Friday, December 26, 8 pm ET ESPN - Detroit

   Recommendation: Central Michigan

   Central Michigan will make the short trip to Detroit for the third consecutive year to play in the Motor City Bowl. If recent

   history proves correct, the Chippewas will have plenty of success. CMU has played four games at Ford Field the past three seasons resulting in a perfect 4-0 spread record. This is a team that has been a consistent offensive juggernaut averaging at least 30 ppg in each of the past three seasons. Obviously scoring has not been an issue for CMU since Dan Lefevour took over play calling duties three seasons ago. Often referred to as the poor man’s Tim Tebow, the former MAC Player of the Year has done it again with his legs and his arm. Although he missed time with injuries, LeFevour posted a MAC best 309 yards per game of total offense yardage. On the season

   in impressive fashion he ran for over 550 yards, threw for over 2,500 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns.. At his disposal are two absolute matchup nightmares for the Owls secondary. First is the 6-5, 205-pound Bryan Anderson with 2,800 career receiving yards and 21 touchdown receptions.

   The second is speedy Antonio Brown who is cut from the same cloth as former MAC game changer Dante Love or the NFL’s Steve Smith. Where CMU was efficient offensively, FAU was sloppy. Despite returning every significant starter from a breakout campaign in 2007 the Owls offense early on resembled a high school junior varsity squad. Rusty Smith was erratic at best, the receivers dropped a ton of passes, the running game was nearly non-existent and the offensive line gave away far too many sacks. While the protection would eventually get better and the touchdown count began improving

   at the end of the year, the Owls reserved their best performances for their weakest opponents. Additionally they hardly

   looked comfortable on the road. These are not generally the traits of a team worthy of support in a hostile environment. The turnover problem remained a major issue throughout the season allowing

   lesser foes to stay in games and better teams to pull away. The Owls finished second to last in turnover margin in the Sun Belt with a whopping 28 giveaways. In comparison, the Chippewas gave it away just 11 times this season. Neither team passes the grade defensively as they both allow about 30 points per game so we start to look for our advantages elsewhere. The two biggest advantages have already been discussed and both belong to Central Michigan. First is their de facto home field edge here in Michigan in a venue with which they are comfortable. The second is the very real prospect

   of getting extra possessions in part to sloppy play and turnovers from FAU. In a back and forth game, those extra possessions

   will prove the difference as CMU covers the number.

   MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

   North Carolina vs. West Virginia pk O/U 44.5

   Saturday, December 27, 1 pm ET ESPN - Charlotte, N.C.

   Recommendation: West Virginia

   This is another ultra competitive matchup in a bowl season

   that features 23 games lined at -5 or lower. Each team here finished at 8-4 and they both posted similar scoring margins with UNC recording a +7.2 average while WVA finished

   at +8.1. The solid 7-4 point spread record of the Tar Heels and the money burning 4-7 ATS number put up by West Virginia tells more about the exceeded and failed expectations

   of each team. But despite the pointspread marks, WVU is really the better squad. Remember, most of the Mountaineers’ spread failures in 2008 are due to the fact that they were over-priced based on past reputation. This is the first time all season that they are not a favorite. Initial reaction to this game would be that North Carolina is the more balanced offense

   because West Virginia is not a proficient passing team. Also acknowledged would be the fact that North Carolina benefits by playing in Charlotte. Yet a detailed examination of this contest tells a different story as there are plenty of edges for the West Virginia side. For starters, Carolina is not necessarily a more balanced offensive

   unit. They have a 67.2 yard per game differential between

   rushing and passing while West Virginia’s is 81.9. UNC gets there in different ways and are the better passing team but WVA owns the superior rushing unit. Digging beyond the surface and matching the styles presented here, West Virginia gains yet another edge. Their option-based rushing attack was seen only once by North Carolina and that was in their 28-7 win over Georgia Tech. The final score looks nice, but UNC was torched for 326 rushing yards and 6.0 per carry. That should be an advantage for quarterback Pat White and the Mountaineers’ ground game. The WVU pass rush could also be a deciding factor as North Carolina’s offensive line has been penetrated for 14 sacks in its last five games. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to rush for 167 yards or better and at least 4.4 per carry but North Carolina’s running game has gone south over that same season-ending span, generating just 310 yards on 99 carries for 3.1 yards per attempt. Additionally

   the Tar Heels have been out gained by 61.6 yards per contest

   versus the nine bowl teams they faced during the regular

   season. They lost the time of possession battle by 7:38 minutes per game. Simply put, North Carolina has survived this season on 23 takeaways. That method of survival could be tough in this game as West Virginia has only committed eight turnovers in seven games against bowl bound teams. WVA’s Big East leading red zone defense figures to be a help as well. This should be a very close game but in the end, West Virginia’s numerous small edges will add up to a victory

   CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

   Florida State -4.5 vs. Wisconsin O/U 52.5

   Saturday, December 27 4:30 pm ET ESPN - Orlando, Fla.

   Recommendation: Over

   Despite shuffling in a new quarterback for the third time in his three years as head coach, Brett Bielema and the Badger Nation

   had high expectations for 2008. Most of those expectations rested on the fact the Badgers returned PJ Hill, four big offensive

   linemen and nine starters on defense. The rosy outlook was tempered by week four as Wisconsin suffered an improbable loss to Michigan. Undefeated at the time, they led the Wolverines by 19 at the half only to give up 27 unanswered second half points. That devastating defeat sparked a string of five losses in six games to the upper-tier Big Ten teams. Wisconsin did manage to win three straight in the end with a come-from-behind win against Minnesota, a lackluster overtime win against Cal Poly and an easy win against a fading

   Indiana team. That trio was hardly impressive. In the midst of the ugliness

   the Badgers made a switch at quarterback to Dustin Sherer. The results were underwhelming as he completed just 54% of his passes with as many interceptions as touchdowns. However the ground game, which had struggled to assert dominance against upper level competition, finally started clicking as PJ Hill and John Clay combined for 14 touchdowns and 870 yards rushing over the final five games. The Badgers scored 35 points per game during this stretch. The defense never seemed to recover as the run defense was spotty, the secondary was easily confused and the opposition quietly tamed the pass rush. The time off between their last game and this bowl game will have provided ample opportunity

   to regroup but we aren’t sure they are up to the task in facing a solid ground attack and surprisingly potent FSU offense. The Seminoles present a tough challenge with dual quarterback threats in Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson. The duo combined for over 650 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Paired with the game breaking tandem of Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas who combined for over 1,200 yards and 17 touchdowns this offense clicked to the tune of 33 points per game. Much like the Wisconsin

   defense, Florida State had plenty of expectations coming into the season but was largely to blame for several key losses. The Seminoles posted abysmal defensive true rushing numbers

   allowing over 5.40 ypc according to our proprietary numbers.

   PJ Hill and John Clay should have plenty of success and this potential for success on the ground should open it up for better than expected quarterback play. Florida State in particular

   has shown a recent trend of playing wild bowl games with a 44-27 finish with UCLA two years ago and a 35-28 loss against Kentucky last year. The perception of these two schools seems to default back to the days when they were powerhouse defensive

   minded bullies but this year’s reality suggests a very entertaining,

   high scoring contest that flies over a relatively low total.

   EMERALD BOWL

   Miami (FL) vs. California -7 O/U 50

   Saturday, December 27, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Francisco

   Recommendation: California

   California makes its sixth straight bowl appearance under head coach Jeff Tedford as the Bears stay home in the Bay Area to battle

   Miami. California has won four of their last five bowl games and all five of those contests had at least 55 points scored and eclipsed the posted total.Improving off of last season’s 5-7 finish,

   Miami’s second-year Head Coach Randy Shannon makes his first bowl appearance. This year the Hurricanes were one of many teams that finished 4-4 in the ACC. Miami, at one point during October, looked to be the favorite to win their division. That excitement was cut short after a handful of disappointing losses. They did manage to beat Virginia Tech and Wake Forest at home, but had just 16 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in each contest. Miami is a below average

   running team and freshman quarterback Robert Marve completed

   just 54% of his passes with nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. This is the third straight season that Miami has passed for less than 200 yards per game and while the Hurricanes

   tied for fifth in the nation in red zone efficiency, they only got inside

   the opponents 20-yard line 44 times. Miami’s run defense allowed 146 ypg and as a team they finished 11th in scoring defense in the ACC at 24 points per game. Miami’s sub-par run defense should struggle to contain Cal’s Jahvid Best. The super sophomore scored 14 touchdowns and gained nearly 1,400 rushing yards at a clip 8.0 yards per rush. California’s backup running back Shane Vereen provides a nice change of pace and the two combined to rush for more than 2,000 yards. Cal quarterback

   Kevin Riley will start behind center. Both he and backup Nate Longshore finished with a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception

   ratio despite modest passing numbers. California worked through some injuries on both sides of the ball this season but its strength was an experienced defensive unit that finished top-25 nationally allowing

   just 315 yards per game. Cal can also bring consistent pressure to the quarterback and finished the season with 33 sacks.Cal also was third in the nation with 23 interceptions and was in the top ten in turnover differential at +14. That should be a huge edge versus a Miami team that was minus -9 in the turnover column with just four interceptions. Miami will need to make some special teams plays and avoid turnover troubles to pull off the upset. Cal coach Jeff Tedford has proven he can plan and prepare his team for key games and bowl contests while Miami coach Randy Shannon makes his bowl debut. This experience edge and several fundamental advantages gives California the edge. We anticipate Miami to continue its struggles on offense and Cal to come out with a spirited effort. The Golden Bears were 7-0 at home this season and with the home field advantage in this spot, we’ll call for yet another victory. Lay the points.

   INDEPENDENCE BOWL

   Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech +1.5 O/U 47

   Sunday, December 28, 8:15 pm ET ESPN - Shreveport, La.

   Recommendation: Louisiana Tech

   In games against FBS competition, Northern Illinois’ victories came against teams with records of 4-8, 3-9, 6-6, 3-9 and 2-10. Their only win over an even semi-respectable opponent came at home on a last second field goal against Bowling Green. Throughout the season,

   the Huskies earned a reputation for playing solid defense and in the MAC they routinely ranked in the top tier in many defensive categories. But a closer examination shows that against the better offenses on the schedule, NIU was far from a defensive

   juggernaut. Against Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Minnesota, the Huskies allowed almost 35 points per game. Louisiana Tech’s resume isn’t great but with wins over Mississippi State, Fresno State and San Jose State, they have proved to be credible enough to compete and beat decent teams. As we turn to the fundamentals it should be noted that in Northern Illinois’ five FBS wins, they averaged 225 ypg on the ground. While on the surface that seems impressive, those five opponents

   showed no propensity for stopping the run this season as they allowed an average of 185 rushing yards per game. Louisiana

   Tech has been up to the task this season with its rush defense, holding opponents to just slightly more than 100 yards per game. Tech’s ability to run the ball as well as contain the run should put the onus on Northern Illinois to play out of its comfort zone. In their last game of the season against Nevada, they held the Wolfpack,

   a team that averages 290 rushing yards per season, to just 103 yards. However, Tech still lost that game as Nevada was able to adjust and torch the Bulldogs’ defense for nearly 400 passing yards. Northern Illinois will not be able to duplicate that passing game success. Freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish with 478 rushing yards is more of a run-first type option. He has just seven passing touchdowns on the season. As further evidence of the weak passing

   attack consider the fact that NIU doesn’t have a single receiver that ranks in the conference top ten in receptions

   or receiving yards per game. Offensively on the other side of the mix, Louisiana Tech is a completely

   different team since Ross Jenkins replaced Tyler Bennett as the starting quarterback. A more conservative run-oriented offense

   emerged and Louisiana Tech averaged 220 yards per game on the ground over its last seven games. The end result improved as well as the Bulldogs closed the campaign on a 5-2 straight up run while winning three games outright as an underdog. Overall, on defense Northern Illinois is better than most of the WAC competition

   that Louisiana Tech faced but the fundamental strengths for each unit in this game all favor Tech. The Accu-Stat numbers project that the Bulldogs should out rush the Huskies and with a significant advantage in yards per rush on the defensive side they are a very live underdog. With home crowd advantage and a fundamental edge, we’ll play Louisiana Tech with confidence.

   PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

   NC State +7 vs. Rutgers O/U 52

   Monday, December 29, 3 pm ET ESPN - Birmingham, Ala.

   Recommendation: NC State

   This may be a lower-tier bowl game but the selection committee

   got it right when they matched-up two teams that closed out the season on big runs. Rutgers endured a 0-3 start that turned into a 1-5 record.. At that point, with only a win against Morgan State, it did not look like the Scarlet Knights would be going bowling. Yet they caught fire and won their last six games to finish at 7-5. Three of their six wins were against bowl teams; Connecticut, Pittsburgh and South Florida. A review

   of their schedule shows that four of their five early losses were also against bowl teams. NC State can certainly relate to Rutgers. The Wolfpack were 2-6 before winning their last four games to finish at 6-6. They ended the season with three straight wins over ACC bowlers;

   Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami-Florida. Without question

   both teams got to this point because of their successful quarterback play. Mike Teel, Rutgers’ three-year starter, got off to a terrible start but was able to turn it around, looking like one of the top quarterbacks in the country down the stretch. The Scarlet Knights put up an incredible 46 points per game over their last five wins. Even with the slow start Rutgers season long numbers were a respectable 4.72 yards per rush and 7.78 yards per pass. But in their six-game winning streak, Teel averaged 316 yards per game at a rate of 9.76 yards per pass. NC State can also trace its turnaround to the quarterback position.

   Russell Wilson was not the starter to open the season and was injured in his first appearance. When healthy he was simply phenomenal. He earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors and was chosen to the all-conference team. Wilson threw just one interception all year and has a current streak of 226 passes without a pick. He has 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions over his last eight starts. Coupled with an ability to run the ball he kept alive many of NC State’s scoring drives with third down scrambles. Overall he means as much to his teams’ offensive success as any one player in the country. For the season, the NC State offense ran for 4.91 yards per rush and threw for 5.79 yards per pass. However those numbers include three games in which Wilson either was limited or did not play due to injury. Each team has holes in its defense as they both allowed

   nearly 5.0 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per pass for the season. These two hot offenses should have a significant edge over the defense.We had the game lined at pick’em in one set of our power ratings we fully expect the result to be decided late in the fourth quarter. Even with Teel on a tear we believe Wilson has the capabilities to match scores and make as many plays. We’ll take the points with NC State and consider

   them a live underdog in what should be a great game.

   ALAMO BOWL

   Northwestern +13 vs. Missouri O/U 66

   Monday, December 29, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Antonio

   Recommendation: Northwestern

   As further evidence that the Big Ten is significantly down this year consider the pointspreads here in the 2008 bowl season. The Big Ten has seven bowl teams and six of them are underdogs. All totaled

   five of them are underdogs of more than a touchdown and four of them are in the double digit range. In a bowl season in which only six games have double-digit pointspreads the betting marketplace

   clearly doesn’t respect the Big Ten. Northwestern wasn’t a very good team this year. The Wildcats somehow managed to eke out nine wins in the regular season despite finishing 83rd in true rushing yards per carry and 81st in true passing yards per attempt. Senior quarterback CJ Bacher was awful

   at times, finishing with as many interceptions as touchdowns. Senior running back Tyrell Sutton battled injuries all year and gained only 776 yards on the ground. The offense was largely dink and dunk, with only one receiver, Eric Peterman, averaging

   more than ten yards per reception. The Wildcats had -5 turnover

   margin and was ranked 85th in the country in turnovers per game. Despite all of these negative numbers, Pat Fitzgerald guided this mediocre team to a fourth place Big Ten finish and their first bowl appearance since 2005. The schedule was the primary factor for success as Northwestern played a ridiculously weak schedule. Only two of their nine victories came against bowl bound foes. They had a +4 turnover margin and beat Iowa early when the Hawkeyes were struggling. They also beat Minnesota on an interception

   return touchdown in the game’s final seconds. That’s it when it comes to quality wins in 2008 for the Wildcats. Missouri didn’t exactly step up in class this season either. The Tigers were annihilated against the spread in all four of their tough games in 2008. They lost outright as a double-digit favorites against Oklahoma

   State and Kansas. And they were blown off the field in ugly losses to Texas and Missouri. The Tigers covered

   only two pointspreads in their final eight games of the season and those two wins came against Colorado

   and Iowa State who combined to post a 2-14 straight up and 4-12 against the spread mark versus Big XII competition. Despite those failings down the stretch, the Tigers’ offense is extremely potent. Quarterback Chase Daniel was the Big XII Offensive Player of the Year as a junior and his senior year was every bit as good. Playmaking speedster Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman

   combined to catch 22 touchdowns and 178 receptions for more than 2,100 receiving yards. Overall, there is no question Missouri

   has the advantage on offense but the Tigers rarely showed much on the defensive side of the equation. In a game of motivation,

   Missouri can’t be all too excited about playing in a second-tier bowl. Meanwhile Northwestern has shown the ability to keep it close and will have enough in its offensive arsenal to keep this game within the number against a less than impressive defense.

   HUMANITARIAN BOWL

   Maryland vs. Nevada -1 O/U 58

   Tuesday, December 30, 4:30 pm ET ESPN - Boise, Idaho

   Recommendation: Over

   Late in the season Maryland was positioned to win their ACC division in a crazy conference race. However they folded under

   the pressure and dropped three of their final four games. Despite the poor finish to the season, the Terrapins had hoped for a more enticing bowl invitation from the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Their hopes were dashed when the committee instead chose Florida State as West Virginia’s opponent. This headline explains the disappointment of all parties involved, “The Maryland

   football program wanted to play in a more prominent bowl game. The Humanitarian Bowl wanted a team with more national sizzle. Neither got its wish.” The Terrapins really struggled on the defensive side all season long. Although they lost half of their starters from their 2007 unit, the Maryland defense was projected as a solid if not unspectacular unit. But in a recurrent theme the defense disappointed on the field, finishing in the bottom quarter of the ACC in total yards allowed, pass defense and rush defense. Their inability

   to stop the run is of particular concern in this match-up as Nevada is one of the strongest ruhsing teams in the nation. The Wolfpack averaged over 290 yards on the ground per game at a clip of 6.5 yards per rush according to our Accu-stats. This group overcame the loss of their heart-and-soul leader when Luke Lippincott was lost for the season after just 17 carries. His replacement Vai Taua, has been phenomenal. After carrying the ball just 13 times last season the sophomore running back took full advantage of his opportunity this year racking up 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns on 214 touches. The Nevada “pistol offense” is directed by one of the nation’s top offensive players,

   the dynamic dual threat quarterback, Colin Kapernick. On the season, Kapernick ran for over 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns while throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 19 scores. But as good as the offense has been, the defense has been as bad. The Wolfpack will hang their hats on what amounts to FBS football’s third best rush defense but those numbers are pretty easily discounted by way of their pass defense which ranks dead last. Simply put, opponents don’t have to run the ball when they can pass for over 320 yards per game. Fundamentally speaking it will be a poor matchup here against Maryland who ranked second in the ACC in pass offense. Chris Turner may have been sloppy against some quality BCS defenses but he and star receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey should have a field day in Boise. This is a matchup where the two teams’ offensive strengths are matched up favorably against each team’s biggest defensive weakness. Those advantages should translate into a high scoring affair and with a total that hasn’t yet cracked the 60-point plateau we feel extremely confident in playing this one up and over.

   TEXAS BOWL

   Western Michigan vs. Rice -3 O/U 72.5

   Thursday, December 30, 8 pm ET NFL Network - Houston

   Recommendation: Rice

   Rice was picked by most to finish in the bottom half of its six-team division. Yet the Owls surprised posting a 9-3 mark for the season while winning its last six games. Along the way they earned victories over solid bowl-bound teams; Houston, Southern Miss and Memphis. With just one winning season in its last six season, the Owls will be plenty excited about this bowl opportunity. Their opponent, Western Michigan and also ended the year with a 9-3 mark and delivered wins against Illinois and MAC conference bowl-bound teams; Northern Illinois and Buffalo. Their losses came against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball State -- all of which are bowl teams. As we see it, this should be a shootout as both offenses have been excellent this season. Teams and players from Conference-USA just don’t get much national attention unless they are in the hunt for an undefeated season. In fact, Rice may be the most unheralded top tier offensive team in the nation. The Owls gained 5,700 yards this season and topped 35 points scored in six straight games. They run the ball well at 5.23 yards per rush and throw it even better at 7.69 yards per pass. Like the team, Rice quarterback Chase Clement had a tremendous year without receiving much publicity. He is an excellent spread offense quarterback and has a bevy of solid receivers. Widouts Jarett Dillard and James Casey each posted over 1,200 yards while combining for 31 touchdowns. Only two players in the MAC posted equal numbers and one of them, Jamarko Simmons, plays for Western Michigan. Overall Western Michigan has not been as productive on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos rushed for 4.56 ypc and passed for 6.74 ypp, yet they still managed to score 22 or more points in 11 of its 12 games. They have much better defensive numbers than Rice as the Owls allow 5.99 ypc and 6.73 ypp. Still we expect defense to be an afterthought in this matchup. The Rice offense will move the ball and score plenty of points as no defense other than Texas has been able to slow down this group. When facing comparable speed and athleticism, Rice has had no trouble piling up the points and yards. The defensive edge for WMU is not going to be enough. Rice is plenty content to use its offense to just trade points and eventually outscore the opposition. It has worked well for the Owls this season as they covered eight of its nine straight up wins. Despite the spread and straight up success not one game was decided by less than five points. With the short price in this game we are essentially asking

   Rice to just win the game. With the benefit of playing it is hometown and this being the last chance for Clement and several other seniors to showcase their ability, we’ll call for the Rice Owls to earn its tenth win this season. Lay the points.

   HOLIDAY BOWL

   Oklahoma State vs. Oregon +3 O/U 76.5

   Tuesday, December 30, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Diego

   Recommendation: Oregon

   For a significant portion of the season, Oklahoma State was on the cusp of being considered part of the Big XII elite. While they earned a big win over Missouri the Cowboys were unable to register a win against the “big three”. While they weren’t that far removed with a hard fought four-point loss to Texas, they were crushed by both Texas Tech and Oklahoma. In those games against the four above mentioned opponents OSU put up 28.3 points and 409.5 yards per game but they allowed 42 points and 536 yards per game. Oklahoma State is no question battle tested whereas Oregon was able to thrive with its funky offense in the mediocre PAC-10. Oregon’s offense

   may not feature the high-flying passing attack of those aforementioned

   teams but in terms of scoring output and yardage they are equal to the task. Still the Ducks fell short when asked to step up in class in conference. They were crushed by USC and failed to beat California in a rain-soaked game that should have favored their strong rushing attack. Fundamentally Oregon is the top rushing team in the country. The Ducks average

   6.88 yards per rush and nearly a yard more per carry than an Oklahoma State team that averages an impressive 256 rushing

   yards per game. Defensively the edge also belongs to Oregon

   in stopping the run as the Ducks held opponents to just 3.87 yards per carry. OSU’s opponents netted 4.48 per attempt. Oklahoma State’s rush defense looks good on paper as they allowed

   just 124 yards per game. But opposing teams eschewed the run because success through the air was all but assumed as the Cowboys allowed 269 yards per game throw the air. Furthermore

   many opponents were forced to play from behind and abandon the run. The Ducks are fundamentally a good play as they enter here as an underdog that outplays the opposition in the running game on both sides of the ball. We also give Oregon the edge in terms of coaching and preparation.

   Oregon was forced to play four quarterbacks this season yet offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense continued to prosper. Coming out of two bye weeks this season, the Ducks put up 54 and 65 points respectively. Plus we must recall that last season when Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon went down late in the campaign the Ducks limped into the postseason on a three-game losing streak. Yet they showed up in the Sun Bowl and beat South Florida 56-21 as a 6-point underdog. This program will be prepared. While the offenses will be front and center both coaches have indicated that it will be the defense that makes the difference. If we rank these teams equal on offense, then the difference or advantage lies with the stop units. We expect the Oregon defense to earn the win as they force couple of turnovers or hold Oklahoma State to a couple of field goals instead of touchdowns. Take the points

   ARMED FORCES BOWL

   Houston -2.5 vs. Air Force O/U 64

   Wednesday, December 30, Noon ESPN - Fort Worth, Texas

   Recommendation: Houston

   Air Force returns to the Armed Forces Bowl for the second consecutive

   year. The Falcons’ entered last season’s game on a three-game winning streak and built a 21-0 lead over California before the hibernating Bears woke up and piled up over 500 yards offense

   to emerge with a 42-36 win. In facing Houston, Air Force is again matched with a significantly superior offensive opponent. The Falcons previously faced Houston this season in an early September game down in Dallas when Hurricane Ike forced the game out of Houston. With the distractions,

   Air Force emerged with a 31-28 victory in rainy and windy conditions.

   The Falcons ran for 380 yards but did not complete a single pass in seven attempts. Houston piled up over 530 yards in the defeat as quarterback

   Case Keenum threw for over 360 yards and four touchdowns in the difficult conditions. The expectation

   in this contest is that Houston’s top rated offense will prove too powerful

   for Air Force as the Cougars get redemption for the early season loss. Overachieving Air Force enters off two lopsided losses to superior Mountain West Conference

   teams and will face a Houston team that has significant advantages on offense. The Falcons have a freshman quarterback operating the offense as Tim Jefferson took over in early October.

   He has attempted 10 or more passes in only one of his eight starts. He does however, possess good mobility and is another of many running threats for the Falcons. This game provides an interesting dynamic with the contrast in styles. The Air Force spread option with a zone-running scheme has averaged over 268 rushing ypg. Meanwhile, Houston prefers to travel through the air, piling up 414 passing ypg. The Cougars led the nation in total offense with 575 ypg and Keenum led the nation with 4,768 passing yards while throwing for 43 touchdowns behind a 67% completion

   rate. The Cougars scored at least 40 ppg in seven of their final eight contests and Air Force proved vulnerable

   against the MWC’s top offenses of Utah, BYU and TCU. As you might expect with a quick strike offense,

   Houston ranks among the nation’s worst in time-of-possession.

   Air Force will attempt to chew up the clock with its ground game and keep the Cougars’ offense off the field. The Cougars’ defense

   is vulnerable and did allow 169 rushing ypg. If Air Force can control the clock and run with success, then they will no doubt have a shot to beat Houston for a second time. But the belief here is that Air Force benefited greatly throughout the season with some timely turnovers and scheduling spots. They finished +12 in turnover margin but against the three other teams they faced with a winning record, the Falcons were just +1 in turnover margin

   and they lost all three. So while the Falcons hold the rushing advantage, Houston is the much better overall team and with an explosive offense that can extend the field, they’ll exact revenge.

   SUN BOWL

   Pittsburgh +3 vs. Oregon State O/U 53

   Wednesday, December 31 2 pm ET CBS - El Paso, Texas

   Recommendation: Pittsburgh

   Pittsburgh finished the season 9-3 and for the first time during the four-year tenure of Dave Waanstadt, the Panthers had a winning record.

   In the minds of many however, the season was still a disappointment.

   Opening the season with an inexplicable loss to Bowling Green was the continuation of the established pattern of losing to inferior teams. This has been the knock against the Panthers and more specifically

   head coach Dave Wannstedt. The numbers over the past two seasons

   illustrate Pittsburgh’s inconsistency as the Panthers are 3-7 ATS as a favorite and have suffered three losses in straight up fashion as a favorite of more than a touchdown. However on the flip side, the Panthers are an impressive 10-3 as an underdog and have shown the ability to compete with anyone. Motivation can be a key factor in predicting winners in these second tier Bowl Games. With that in mind, Oregon State is probably disappointed

   to be in El Paso for the Sun Bowl. With their early season victory over USC, the Beavers were in position to face Penn State in the Rose Bowl but fell short in a season ending loss to their in-state rival, Oregon. While players will be expected to put that disappointment behind them, consider this quote from head coach Mike Riley; “There will be some residual effect, but this is no time for babies. We can’t whine about that. We’re going to have to get ready to go.” Even with a month to shake the disappointment we expect the loss of a Rose Bowl opportunity

   to leave this OSU team less than enthused. While motivation is important,

   fundamentally the blueprint for success against Oregon State has been in running the football as they have allowed nearly five yards per carry on the ground. When Oregon State was outgained on the ground, they are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. This season they were out rushed by Utah, Stanford, Penn State and Oregon to the tune of more than 100 yards per game. On the other side of the equation

   when the Beavers out rushed the opposition they were 8-0. In those eight victories, they averaged more than 200 ypg while allowing just 81. So our fundamental

   question for this game centers around the rush offense and defense of both teams. And in our projections, in each case Pittsburgh holds the edge. Pitt running back LeSean McCoy netted over 1,700 yards from scrimmage while averaging nearly five yards per carry saving his best performances for the Panthers’ toughest opponents. Additionally in 624 touches the last two seasons he has not had a single fumble. On the other side of the equation, Super Freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is battling a significant shoulder injury that kept him out of the Beavers’ game against Oregon. Injuries are always a concern and their second leading gainer James Rodgers is out for this game. Additionally all of the little advantages of being the more disciplined team should also contribute

   to our edge with Pittsburgh. On the season, Pitt has been called for only 55 penalties compared to the 80 called on the Beavers. Defensively

   Pitt is better against both the pass and the run and with so much else in our favor, we’ll take the points with the better defensive team.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:13pm
2. 0 likes

   MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

   COLLEGE BOWLS

   Saturday, December 20th

   EAGLEBANK BOWL

   Navy over Wake Forest by 3

   Oh, great… this is just what we DON’T need. Another meaningless bowl

   matchup – there are two new bowls this year, by the way – instead of a

   legitimate college football playoff. You’d think as handicappers we’d

   welcome a pair of additional wagering opportunities during the CFB postseason

   but the truth is we prefer quality to quantity. Take a good look at the

   participants in the seven bowl games we’re analyzing this week and toss in

   the after-Christmas Motor City Bowl spectacular so you come up with a list

   of 16 teams. Now check out who we’d be watching in the opening round

   of a 16-team playoff, seeded according to the fi nal BCS rankings: (9) Boise

   St vs (8) Penn State, (10) Ohio St vs (7) Texas Tech, (11) TCU vs (6) Utah

   in a rematch, (12) Cincinnati vs (5) USC, (13) Oklahoma St vs (4) Alabama,

   (14) Georgia Tech vs (3) Texas, (15) Georgia vs (2) Florida in a rematch, and

   fi nally (16) BYU vs (1) Oklahoma. Instead we get a system where Texas – who

   beat Oklahoma straight up on a neutral fi eld – is denied a chance to play

   for the national crown along with the nation’s only two unbeaten squads,

   Utah and Boise State. And in order to supply fodder for this year’s glut of 34

   bowl games, no less than EIGHT teams will take the fi eld with a 6-6 record!

   Gee, remember the good old days when teams got invited to a bowl as a

   reward for a winning season? Yet somehow the BCS prevails and we shake

   our heads helplessly at this same time every year, shackled by a system so

   corrupt that Congress is actually envious. But enough BCS bashing; let’s turn

   our attention to this pulse-pounder scheduled to take place in our nation’s

   capital. When these two teams met on September 27th at Winston-Salem,

   the game marked a turning point of sorts for both. Following Navy’s 24-17

   win (its fi rst over a ranked foe in 23 years) as a 16-point road dog, the Middies

   fi nished the season with a strong 5-2 SU run while the Deacs struggled to a

   lackluster 4-4 effort. Yes, Wake Forest has reached a 3rd consecutive bowl

   game for the fi rst time in school history but today’s venue is a huge step

   down from its 2006 Orange Bowl appearance. Throw the obvious revenge

   motive into the mix with a superb 13-4 SU and 11-5 ATS mark versus Military

   teams (including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS if not at home) and Jim Grobe’s team

   looks promising as a short favorite – until we factor in a few more bits of

   information. Despite returning just four starters on offense and breaking in

   a new head coach in Ken Niumatalolo (just one of 10 fi rst-year coaches to

   earn a bowl berth in ’08), Navy led the nation in rushing, including 292 yards

   in its earlier ambush of Wake. Ironically, Middie QB Kaipo-long-name left

   the game at Winston-Salem with an injury but was back recently to guide his

   crew to a 34-0 destruction of Army – and should be rarin’ to go today. In fact,

   this will mark Navy’s 3rd game in 19 days so don’t expect to see much rust on

   the Mids’ precision option offense. And even though the folks at Annapolis

   initially resisted a rematch with Wake, the anchors aweigh crowd bought

   up 30,000 of the 45,000 available seats at RFK Stadium. That crowd support

   looks especially good since pre-New Year’s Day bowl dogs that outrush their

   opponents are a solid 122-55-1 ATS since 1980, numbers that fi t perfectly

   with Wake coach Grobe’s weak 6-12 ATS log as non-ACC chalk (1-6 versus a

   foe off a win). Navy WILL win the rushing battle today and with Deacon QB

   Riley Skinner unable to perform with any consistency all season, look for WF

   to go MIA in DC today.

   NEW MEXICO BOWL

   Fresno St over Colorado St by 1

   Jeez, the second bowl game on this year’s schedule and we’re already looking

   at one of those 6-6 teams we just mentioned in Colorado State. Do the Rams

   really deserve to be playing today? Probably not but they’re a helluva a lot

   more excited about being here than the downtrodden Bulldogs. First-year

   head coach Steve Fairchild rescued a CSU program that was in a state of

   slow decay under legendary Sonny Lubick (Rams were just 7-17 SU the fi nal

   two years of the Lubick era) and a victory today over Fresno State would

   give the folks in Fort Collins their fi rst winning season since 2003. Fairchild’s

   boys didn’t just back their way into this bowl appearance – they had to win

   their fi nal two games of the season to become bowl eligible. The Rams also

   came within few plays of shocking a pair of powerful opponents earlier in

   the year, losing by just 6 points to TCU and by 3 points to BYU. But while

   Colorado State’s fans are ecstatic about heading to Albuquerque (school has

   sold almost its complete allotment of tickets), Fresno State and its backers

   are less than thrilled by the prospect. And why not? Armed with 15 returning

   starters led by SR QB Tom Brandstater, the Bulldogs were expected to make

   some major noise in ’08 and compete for a BCS bowl slot. But those dreams

   where shattered by a slew of injuries to key personnel and FSU fi nished the

   season on a 2-3 SU slide, capped off with a demoralizing 61-10 destruction at

   the hands of Boise State. Both teams own rotten rush defenses, each allowing

   more than 5.0 YPR, and the putrid Bulldog stop unit forced just 12 turnovers

   all year. The ATS archives suggests we fade Fresno since Hill’s squad was just

   1-7 versus the number as chalk in ’08 and WAC Bowlers are a miserable 4-11

   SU and ATS against an opponent off BB SU wins this decade. In this battle of

   former WAC rivals (CSU jumped to the Mountain West conference a decade

   ago), we’ll pick the Rams to grab the green by the slimmest of margins.

   ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

   South Florida over Memphis by 7

   Here we go again… ANOTHER 6-6 team in a bowl game. But if you take

   a look at the way the season unfolded for both of today’s foes, the .500

   Tigers appear to have a lot more left in the tank than USF. Much like Fresno

   State, South Florida returned a ton of starters and an outstanding QB in

   Matt Grothe and was expected to contend for the Big East championship

   and a BCS bowl appearance. But USF turned out to be as bullish as this

   autumn’s stock market, bursting out of the stall with a 5-0 SU start before

   plummeting to a horrifi c 2-5 fi nish. A home loss to Pittsburgh as double-digit

   favorites began the Bulls’ sharp decline and USF hasn’t scored more than 20

   points since beating woeful Syracuse in mid-October. Tommy West’s Tigers

   took the exact opposite route to this game, losing their fi rst 3 games of the

   season (2 of the losses were to bowlers Ole Miss and Rice) before restoring

   the roar with a 6-3 fi nish, including a 4-0 ‘In The Stats’ performance in the

   fi nal 4 games. The striped cats get further support from our database, which

   informs us that pre-New Year’s Day dogs of 7 or more points that were

   favored by over 10 points in their previous game are a money-making14-2-2

   ATS. From a fan standpoint, South Florida couldn’t have asked for a better

   destination: Tropicana Field is little more than a stone’s throw across Tampa

   Bay from the Bulls’ campus home. But with USF being outstatted in 3 of

   the season’s fi nal 4 games and its players decidedly disappointed at being

   relegated to such a minor bowl, we can’t bring ourselves to lay doubles with

   the ‘home’ team here. Like Johnny Rivers sang, “Long distance information,

   give me Memphis, Tennessee...”

   LAS VEGAS BOWL

   Byu over Arizona by 1

   When Rodgers and Hammerstein penned the lyrics to the famous Broadway

   show tune, ‘Getting to Know You’ they had no idea it would eventually

   become the bowl theme song for BYU. It’s now four-straight years in bowl

   games for Cougar head coach Bronco Mendenhall and four-straight years

   to the Las Vegas Bowl. That’s a good thing if you’re a Mormon considering

   the fact that dogs in bowl games they won the previous year are 23-12

   ATS, including 15-3 ATS versus an opponent that won 8 or less games last

   year. When the season started BYU had realistic visions of a 12-0 campaign.

   Why not? After all, they had won 11 games in back-to-back seasons and

   were returning ten starters on offense, led by heralded QB Max Hall. A 6-0

   start saw those dreams shattered in a disappointing 32-7 loss at TCU. They

   managed to rally back with 4 consecutive wins before falling at Utah in

   their season fi nale. Today they’ll take the fi eld against an Arizona squad

   that is fi nally bowling for the fi rst time in ten years. It certainly doesn’t

   hurt knowing that BYU is 13-1 ATS as a dog off a loss when squaring off

   against a sub .700 opponent. Enter the Wildcats, fresh off a season-ending

   win over arch-rival Arizona State. That victory snapped a two-game losing

   skid at the hands of the Oregonians. We’re not at all enamored with the

   fact that PAC 10 bowl teams are just 1-12 ATS as favorites against foes off a

   loss, while managing to win only 5 of the 13 games in SU fashion. To make

   matters worse, the quality of opposition was weak, at best, for Arizona as

   its opponents posted a combined win percentage of just .421 this season.

   Considering the Mountain West’s surprising dominance (6-1 SU) against a

   PAC 10 conference that was down this year, it would come as no surprise

   to us to see the Cougars win their 11th game for the 3rd straight year here

   today. As the song goes, “But nicely, you are precisely, my cup of tea.”

   Sunday, December 21st

   NEW ORLEANS BOWL

   Troy over Southern Miss by 7

   If you’ve been following us all year, you know we like teams who win the

   “stat battles”. And if we follow our powerful database, as we always do,

   then we’re clearly behind the men of Troy in this matchup. The Trojans are

   20-2 ‘In the Stats’ over their last 22 games, including 11-1 this season, while

   the Golden Eagles have won the stat war just 5 of their previous 34 tries

   versus Bowlers over the last 6 years! In addition, Conference USA Bowlers

   as a whole haven’t fared well when tackling an opponent off a SU win,

   registering an anemic 10-22 ATS mark. Southern Miss, in particular, has

   dropped the ball in post-season play, recording a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS mark

   in their last 13 bowl efforts. With Sun Belt Bowl teams 3-0 SU and ATS off

   BB SUATS wins, this year’s New Orleans Bowl has the makings of a ‘Big Easy’

   Troy victory. We know we’ll get the stat win, but it’s the scoreboard that

   brings home the bacon. We’ll get that, too. Play it and lay it as Larry Fedora,

   another 1st year coach, goes down in bowl fl ames today.

   Tuesday, December 23rd

   POINSETTIA BOWL

   Tcu over Boise St by 6

   Undoubtedly the best matchup of the non-major Bowl games, why are these

   two teams meeting on December 23rd while Buffalo-UConn and Tulsa-Ball

   State are the lead-ins to the BCS Championship game? Is Bud Selig behind

   this one? All kidding aside, this looks to be a classic confrontation between

   offense versus defense. We’ve all witnessed the Boise State offense in that

   incredible Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma but let’s not forget about the

   TCU defense. The Horned Frogs, along with Texas, held Oklahoma to their

   lowest point total of the season (35) and their 2nd lowest yardage mark

   (436), just ONE more yard than the Longhorns allowed. In fact, the Horned

   ones have held 9 opponents to season low yardage this year, the best in the

   FBS. In terms of pedigree, both squads arrive with suitable credentials. The

   Broncos are 14-3 SU versus Bowlers over the last three years while TCU is 7-2

   SU and 6-2-1 ATS in Bowl appearances since 1998. They tell us good pitching

   stops good hitting and defense wins championships. Who are we to argue?

   Especially when our wise database tells us that undefeated Bowl dogs of less

   than 10 points off an ATS win of more than 10 points are just 1-5 SU and ATS.

   Gary Patterson’s 7-1 ATS mark with rest against non conference opponents

   seals it. ‘D’ before ‘O’, that’s how we’ll go.

   Wednesday, December 24th

   HAWAII BOWL

   Hawaii over Notre Dame by 1

   When Santa brings us a nice new plasma television this year and we open

   it early on Christmas Eve, it’s doubtful that the fi rst channel we turn on will

   be ESPN for this 8:00 snoozer. Yes, we still prefer reruns of ‘Charlie Brown’s

   Christmas’ over watching two teams with a combined 13-12 SU record. And

   it doesn’t look like we’ll be opening the wallet for this one, either. While

   Hawaii boasts a strong 21-3 SU mark in its last 24 home games – including

   the last 3 as a home bowler averaging over 51 PPG – this year’s version minus

   Colt Brennan is just 1-6 ‘In The Stats’. Although the Irish are one of our 2008

   “Mission Teams” to receive a bowl invitation, their 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS mark

   in bowl games since 1994 doesn’t exude much confi dence. The visitors have

   outstatted 8 of their last 9 opponents but thanks to their propensity for

   turnovers on the road this season (22), their statistical dominance hasn’t

   translated into “W’s”. While Weis has been able to bully .500 or less foes to

   the tune of 16-4 SU, he hasn’t fared well against winning opposition, posting

   just a 12-17 SU and ATS mark in those contests. Hawaii’s Greg McMakin has

   done a credible job in replacing June Jones but our trusty database informs

   us that coaches in their fi rst year with a new team are just 8-21-1 ATS in Bowl

   games off a SU loss or win of less than 3 points. Tough call. We’ll leave this

   one to you but we’ll be watching Snoopy as he prepares for his annual battle

   with the Red Baron.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:14pm
3. 0 likes

   MUSIC CITY BOWL

   Boston College vs. Vanderbilt +4 O/U 41

   Wednesday, December 31, 3:30 PM ET ESPN - Nashville, Tenn.

   Recommendation: Vanderbilt

   You would have thought Boston College was No. 1 in the country with a 34-0 lead heading in the fourth quarter of the ACC title game only to blow it by what we read in the newspapers after the loss to Virginia Tech. The disappointment of missing a BCS game was immense

   for a team that started the season with the expectations of being middle-of-the-road ACC club. Sitting a 2-3 in conference play after a home loss to Clemson, the Eagles shutout Notre Dame 17-0. Then in multiple must-win situations closed out the regular season with three straight. Included were back-to-back road wins over Florida

   State and Wake Forest. Few teams expended more energy over the last month of the season to get into their conference championship

   game. Getting to the game was an accomplishment but Boston College got beat decidedly in the most important

   game of the season and must now rebound. A lot of what occurred was similar to that of last season when they closed the season with huge wins and then lost to Virginia Tech in the league championship. In their disappointment last season the Eagles managed to rebound

   with a win over Michigan State in the Champs Sports Bowl – although they failed to cover the five-point spread. The problems we see in this matchup however transcend the motivational factors. With a newbie quarterback and an average running game, this team is almost as inept as Vanderbilt on offense. Boston College quarterback Dominuque Davis has delivered mixed results in replacement of the injured Chris Crane. Not that Crane was a game-changer but he had developed enough continuity to be effective.

   Davis completed less that 48% of his passes on 102 attempts and while there is nearly a month to prepare, the Eagles are unlikely to put the game in his hands. As for Vanderbilt, they also entered the campaign with little expectation. We actually predicted that they would go winless in SEC play. They pulled off a couple of stunners early on and found themselves 5-0 overall and 3-0 in conference before mid-October. Their inability to move the football eventually caught up with this team and proved too much to overcome. The Commodores’ strength lies in a 29th rated defense that posted 18 interceptions and 30 sacks. Those numbers are not too different from what we get with Boston

   College and despite ranking in the top ten nationally in total defense, the ACC found ways to score points on the Eagles. In nine league games, BC allowed 26 points per game despite the fact that only one team in the ACC ranked in the top 50 in total offense and that all but three ranked 81st or worse. From a motivational standpoint,

   all aspects favor the Commodores. Snapping a 26-year postseason

   drought and playing a bowl game in their hometown this team motivated and excited to perform. The same is not likely for Boston College. Motivation aside this is not going to be a fluid game and we expect a lot of three-and-outs on offense. In catching more than a field goal, we’ll lean with the “home” team Commodores.

   INSIGHT BOWL

   Minnesota +10.5 vs. Kansas O/U 58

   Wednesday, December 31 5:30 pm ET NFL Network - Tempe, Ariz.

   Recommendation: Minnesota

   The Minnesota program showed tremendous growth in the second season

   under head coach Tim Brewster. Starting from scratch the Golden Gophers improved from 1-11 to a respectable 7-5. They have recruited well and are poised to make an even bigger jump in the years to come. In the here-and-now however, they still should be played with caution. While the end results were impressive, it must be noted that Minnesota took advantage of a weak schedule and avoided Michigan State and Penn State in conference play. Overall their non-conference

   slate featured wins over Montana State, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic. All of those team finished

   6-6 with the exception of 7-5 Montana

   State. Overall, Minnesota didn’t beat a FBS team that was above .500. The Gophers

   do have talent on the offensive and defensive sides of the football. Their defense

   forced a Big Ten-best 30 turnovers which presented the offense a short field on multiple occasions. The offense relied heavily on two playmakers, wide receiver Eric Decker and quarterback Adam Weber. Decker, who finished

   the regular season with 925 receiving yards and six touchdowns, was hurt (ankle) late in the season but is expected to be fully recovered. We’ll also note that Brewster wasted little time in tweaking his coaching

   staff after the regular season as he brought in assistant Tim Davis to replace Phil Meyer as the offensive line coach/running game coordinator.

   Davis has worked at both the college and NFL levels, including as an assistant offensive line coach with the Miami Dolphins under Nick Saban. While his presence is an upgrade, it is not likely to have an immediate

   impact on a truly anemic rushing attack. Minnesota ranked last in the Big Ten and 104th in the nation in rushing averaging just 3.2 yards per rush. Freshman DeLeon Eskridge, the team’s leading rusher, averaged

   more than four yards per carry in only one of Minnesota’s last five games. On the other side of the equation, Kansas comes in battle tested after the Big XII schedule cycle put Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma onto the slate. As is the case with most of the Big XII, the Kansas’ offense had little trouble scoring as they averaged 32.7 ppg. That type of firepower puts Minnesota in a situation of having to play its best offensive opponent of the season. In analyzing Minnesota, we find similarities to a team like Vanderbilt. The early season success was reliant upon creating turnovers on a routine basis. Late in the season when those types of plays were void, the Gophers struggled. The defense was no longer assisted by easy scores from the offense and Minnesota was outscored by an average of over 20 ppg its last four contests.

   Kansas too had its fair share of defensive woes but when we account

   for the difference in conference play, the Jayhawks numbers were no better or no worse than that of Minnesota. Still while Kansas has posted some high-powered offensive numbers, it should be pointed out that the Jayhawks didn’t win a road game by more than three all season long. Additionally Big XII favorites of more than three are just 13-26 ATS in bowl games against other BCS conference teams. Take the Golden Gophers as they again prove to be better that the sum of their stats.

   CHICK-FIL-A BOWL

   LSU vs. Georgia Tech -4 O/U 50.5

   Wednesday, December 31, 7:30 pm ET ESPN - Atlanta

   Recommendation: Georgia Tech

   Critics said that Paul Johnson’s triple option attack would not work in a major conference. Even the most optimistic projections

   didn’t call for the type of season that was delivered. After

   all Georgia Tech was not supposed to compete for an ACC Championship and they certainly weren’t supposed to snap a five game losing streak to in-state rival Georgia. Yet that all happened

   and the naysayers have been left with egg on their face. The Yellow Jackets have been rewarded with a de facto home game in the former Peach Bowl after posting an impressive nine-win campaign. Despite not yet having the personnel recruited

   to run the option, the Jackets posted the nation’s third best ground attack and averaged over 288 yards per game. Their 6.38 yards per carry average puts them in the top five nationally according to our true rushing Accu-stats. While there were hiccups along the way, Tech really started to find a rhythm toward the end of the season. They exploded for 86 points in the final two games against Georgia and Miami

   (FL) and just two weeks prior had posted 31 points on Florida State. Jonathan Dwyer and Josh Nesbit have been a formidable duo and Roddy Jones who gained over 9.3 yards per touch, has been a solid change-of-pace spark for the offense. The defense also outperformed expectations

   showing well against both the pass and the run despite

   losing seven key contributors and Defensive Coordinator Jon Tenuta in the off season. Although the numbers dropped off at the tail end of the campaign due in part to injuries, the Jackets ranked 20th nationally with 32 quarterback sacks. Meanwhile the Bayou Bengals didn’t find the same success in trying to replace coordinators and key contributors this season.

   The Tigers’ offense has really struggled to find any rhythm as the quarterback play has been atrocious. None of the three quarterbacks

   completed more than 55% of their passes and the overall play was so poor that Les Miles opted to start freshman Jordon Jefferson in the season finale against Arkansas. Still while the struggles on offense garnered headlines, the real story has been the decline of the defense. Under coordinator Bo Pelini the Tigers had built championship caliber teams. This year’s in his absence the team has been unrecognizable to the faithful. Not only did they finish with the ninth overall rated defense in the SEC but they ranked dead last in conference play allowing 32 points per game. When you consider the fact that LSU faced South Carolina, Auburn

   and Mississippi State (three of the worst offenses in the conference) those numbers become extremely damning. Georgia

   Tech showed it its defeat of Georgia that it’s offense can work against the speed of the SEC. Playing at home in front of the Atlanta faithful gives Georgia Tech an advantage and with plenty of motivation, we’ll back the better of the two teams.

   OUTBACK BOWL

   Iowa vs. South Carolina +3.5 O/U 43

   Thursday, January 1, 11 am ET ESPN - Tampa, Fla.

   Recommendation: South Carolina

   This game projects to be a defensive matchup with long-time coaches Kirk Ferentz and Steve Spurrier squaring off. When looking at these two teams we clearly notice that both closed out the campaign

   headed in different directions. The Hawkeyes finished the season winning three-straight with an upset over then undefeated Penn State and a 55-0 blowout over rival Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks lost their last two games to Florida and Clemson by a combined margin of 87-20. Still we must keep an open mind and consider the full body of work of both teams. Unquestionably, the Gamecocks played the much tougher schedule in the SEC. Games against Florida, Clemson, Ole Miss and Georgia are just a few of the speed-orientated teams that littered the South Carolina slate. Iowa played a watered down Big Ten schedule and even avoided playing Ohio State. From a perception standpoint, how much should the win over Penn State play into handicapping this game? Outside of that contest, Iowa’s body of work is no better or no worse than that of South Carolina. Now we won’t discredit

   Iowa’s monster win, but it’s too easy to toss aside the team that looked bad down the stretch in favor of one that played well. It is important to remember that with the amount of time in between the end of the season and the bowl game, a team can lose momentum as quickly as it can be gained. On the field, the vital matchup just could be South Carolina redshirt

   freshman quarterback Stephen Garcia against a formidable Iowa defense. The Gamecocks’ offense threw 24 interceptions on the season, while Iowa picked off 20 passes. In addition, the Gamecocks

   found it tough sledding on the ground, running for an average

   of just 98.3 yards per game. Again, this all seems to favor Iowa with its stout defense that ranked tenth in the nation against the run. On the other side of the football, the Hawkeyes will have their own “green” quarterback with Ricky Stanzi taking the snaps. Stanzi was rarely in the position of having to make a difference as running back Shonn Greene and his 1,700+ yards keyed the success. This is a matchup however where the Hawkeyes are not going to be able to sit back, run the football and coast to victory. South Carolina has shown the ability to be one of the top stop defensive units in the SEC. The stats don’t necessarily show it but the speed and pursuit of the football are there. Let’s also acknowledge that USC’s offense was not as bad as the numbers suggest. They surprisingly outgained nine of their first 10 opponents on the season. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes were actually out gained in four of their last five football

   games. Reports out of Columbia had the Gamecocks holding a players’ only meeting after their fiasco against Clemson to close the season. Last season’s bowl season saw six teams close out the year on runs of 5-1 or better and all six lost outright and against the spread. We toss aside what is fresh in most people’s minds and look at the bigger picture, which makes South Carolina the play.

   CAPITAL ONE BOWL

   Michigan State vs. Georgia -7.5 O/U 45

   Thursday, January 1, 1 pm ET ABC - Orlando, Fla.

   Recommendation: Georgia

   Despite facing perhaps the most difficult schedule in the country, Georgia began 2008 with high aspirations for a BCS Title berth. Ranked as the No. 1 team in the nation for the first month of the season, they appeared to be well on their way with what were regarded as impressive wins at South Carolina

   and Arizona State. It all collapsed when in a “blackout” game at home against Alabama, the Bulldogs were throttled by the Tide in a 41-30 loss. Georgia never seemed to fully recover,

   struggling to dispatch Vanderbilt,

   Tennessee, Kentucky and Auburn. Losses outright to Florida and Georgia Tech in games of significant

   consequence down the stretch perhaps indicated that Georgia was overrated. Further indication

   of market inflation is the fact that the Bulldogs have failed to cover eight consecutive games as a favorite. Therein lies the value as the market has over adjusted in response to Georgia’s repeated failures against the number. Still our play here is more of a play against Michigan State. Outside

   of Javon Ringer there isn’t much to like about Michigan State’s offense. The receiving corps looked like a weak unit after losing Devin Thomas and Kellen Davis in the off-season. Those concerns played out on the field as quarterback Brian Hoyer barely completed 50% of his passes and had as many picks (eight) as he did touchdowns. His worst performances came against the best competition as he combined to throw three interceptions and no touchdowns in games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State. Knowing that, it isn’t hard to understand why Ringer carried the ball a staggering 370 times this season. Yet while Ringer has proven to be a game breaker against lesser foes, he has largely failed when forced to play against a solid defensive unit. In the three biggest games of the season against Wisconsin, Ohio State and Penn State, he barely averaged

   three yards per carry as he was held to 163 yards on 54 carries. Those same three opponents racked up over 462 yards of their own on the ground. Furthermore the Spartans lost by a combined count of 104-25 to Penn State and Ohio State. These two teams were the only opponents on their schedule that held a comparable athletic edge like Georgia. Matthew Stafford will be displaying his skills for a number of pro scouts and we don’t expect him to disappoint. He finished

   the year as the SEC’s leading passer and sported a solid

   22-to-9 TD-to-INT ratio. But the real key to Georgia’s rout will be Knowshon Moreno who against some of the toughest

   defenses in the country closed the season with five 100+ yard rushing efforts in his final seven games. This should prove to be a cakewalk as we lay the points with Georgia.

   GATOR BOWL

   Clemson -2.5 vs. Nebraska O/U 55

   Thursday, January 1, 1 pm CBS - Jacksonville, Fla.

   Recommendation: Clemson

   What a turnaround for the Clemson Tigers. Mired in the malaise of another underachieving season, the program took action and fired Tommy Bowden after the Tigers fell to 3-4. More so than the actual results of the season, it appeared that the reason Bowden was fired was that he had lost his team. Several quotes attributed to key players after the coaching change spoke harshly regarding their opinion of Bowden. Team leaders CJ Spiller and Cullen Harper came out strongly and voiced their criticism. This program was in disarray until Dabo Swinney took over on an interim basis and led the Tigers to victory in four of its last five games. With the turnaround complete, he was given the head coaching position officially after the Tigers ended the regular

   season by crushing their in-state rival, South Carolina. In fairness to Bowden, the real cause for the lack of success was the overwhelming amount of injuries

   and attrition suffered along the offensive

   line. Trying to replace three lost starters Clemson used eight different starting combinations in its 12 games. They started three red shirt freshmen and in mid-season were forced to reactivate

   coach Bobby Hutchinson who had opted to forgo his final year of eligibility to join the coaching staff. It wasn’t until the final three games of the season that Clemson started the same five linemen for three consecutive games. Perhaps not coincidentally the Clemson offense started to pick up around the same time. Meanwhile

   Nebraska’s nondescript season was lost in all the highlights of Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech. For that matter, Missouri, Oklahoma State and even Baylor seemed to warrant more coverage. The Cornhuskers

   finished the campaign 8-4 under first year head coach Bo Pelini and the enthusiasm for the program has been restored. Expected

   to immediately have an impact on the defense, the results weren’t there as Nebraska allowed 362 yards per game and ranked just 66th nationally. These numbers were a far cry from Pelini’s previous successes. In 2003 his first year as Nebraska’s defensive

   coordinator the defense improved from 55th to 11th in the nation. In 2004 Pelini was Oklahoma’s co-defensive coordinator

   and the Sooners were 6th in rushing defense and 11th in scoring defense. He joined the LSU staff in 2005 as the Tigers’ defensive

   coordinator. LSU was ranked third nationally in overall defense for each of his three years with the Tigers. The same overwhelming improvement did not occur for Nebraska. Against both the run and the pass, the Cornhuskers were susceptible. While Clemson’s season long numbers don’t show it, this offense is capable as evidenced by the fact that they scored 27 or more in four of its last five games. Defensively

   Clemson performed well all season long allowing only two opponents, Alabama and Florida State, to score more than 21 points. All totaled they held six of their 12 opponents to 14 or fewer points. In this matchup Clemson holds advantages over Nebraska on both sides of the ball. We expect a strong effort from Tigers and will side with the better defensive team in a motivated setting. Lay the short price.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:15pm
4. 0 likes

   ROSE BOWL

   Penn State vs. USC -10 O/U 45.5

   Thursday, January 1, 4:30 pm ET ABC - Pasadena, Calif.

   Recommendation: Under

   Many would argue this Rose Bowl matchup would be a perfect game for a No. 4 versus No. 5 seed in an eight-team playoff system.

   While that projected “playoff” game won’t take place, this game still has plenty of meaning as Pasadena gets its traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-10 matchup. The overall story for both teams this season is strikingly similar. Both USC and Penn State played in conferences that were down, they both dominated inferior foes and they each had one small blemish on their otherwise impressive

   resumes. Penn State is expected to travel over 25,000 strong for this game and while they certainly had aspirations of an undefeated

   season and a National Championship, enthusiasm runs high. While the experience is new for Penn State, the Rose Bowl is becoming a regular part of USC’s schedule. This will mark their fourth straight year in the granddaddy of them all. The Trojans

   absolutely crushed its last two Big Ten opponents, Michigan and Illinois,

   by a combined score of 81-35. Most would agree that Penn State is better than those two previous Big Ten entrants. While we can’t take too much from the results these two teams do share one common opponent

   in the sturdy Ohio State Buckeyes. Early in the season USC as a 10.5-point home favorite blitzed Ohio State 35-3. Later in the season the Nittany Lions won in Columbus 13-6 as a small road favorite. Combined Ohio State scored just nine points total in the two games. Defense should rule the field in this match-up as well. On the field, the intriguing and perhaps deciding matchup will be the tremendous USC defense against Penn State’s “Spread-HD” offense.

   On the season, USC allowed just 206 yards a game and an amazing 7.8 points per contest. In fact, they allowed just two teams to score double-digits and allowed only two passing touchdowns their last eight games. Need more impressive defensive ammo, how about this stat? In Pac-10 play, USC allowed

   opponents inside the red zone just 22 times. We can not project the Penn State rush offense to produce even close to its 212 rushing yards per game average. Therefore the onus falls to the passing game and more specifically quarterback Daryll Clark. Clearly, he and the rest of the Nittany Lions will have their hands full. For much of the season, Clark was arguably the best quarterback in the Big Ten. However he failed against better competition.

   He was pulled from the game and benched against Ohio State and in their lone loss of the season to Iowa he was dismal with a 9-of-23 performance. USC’s offense was certainly not as potent as past editions. The Trojans’ seemed bogged down at key moments with Mark Sanchez under center. Outside of contests against both Washington schools, USC averaged a modest 28.5 points per game in league play. Throughout the season were numerous times when the Trojans looked more than comfortable to rely on its defense and to play it conservative on offense. We expect that same approach

   to be on display here as well. Play it under the number.

   ORANGE BOWL

   Cincinnati -1.5 vs. Virginia Tech O/U 41.5

   Thursday, January 1, 8:30 pm ET FOX - Miami

   Recommendation: Cincinnati

   For the Hokies, a trip to the BCS is nothing new. Having a virtual

   stranglehold on the ACC and Big East over the past ten seasons, Virginia Tech has made it to four BCS games. Unfortunately

   they have lost each appearance including last year to Kansas. For the Bearcats, they will be in uncharted waters as Brian Kelly’s team wrapped up their first ever BCS appearance

   and Big East title. The path for both teams was quite different this season. The Hokies somehow escaped the ACC despite sporting

   the conference’s worst offense and having a pair of quarterbacks who failed to qualify for the season

   ending passer-rating category. Of course it was expected that this team would struggle for points early on after dismissing their best running back and losing numerous

   talented receivers to the NFL. But the widely held belief that this team would improve down the stretch just didn’t turn out to be true. The Hokies barely managed to score 20 points per game in ACC play, scoring just 14 offensive touchdowns in eight games. The opposition has dared Virginia Tech to beat them in one-on-one coverage and more often than not they failed to do so. Fundamentally this will prove to be a tough matchup against a stellar Cincinnati secondary that sports a DYPP of just 5.10 according to our Accu-Stat numbers – one of the best in the country. Cincinnati’s own offense has managed

   to overcome numerous setbacks at the quarterback position. First, they learned Ben Mauk would be denied eligibility

   and then they lost Dustin Grutza just weeks into the season. His replacement, Tony Pike, went down with an injury a few weeks later. Still the Bearcats persevered, going on to beat West Virginia, Rutgers, Pitt and Louisville en route to a conference championship. All told, the trio of starters under center combined to throw for 3,300 yards and 25 touchdowns

   with just 11 interceptions. Kelly’s “Cat Attack” system has proven to be a thorn in many a defenses’ side and their multiple spread formations should be a handful for the Virginia Tech defense. In their last five bowl appearances the Hokies have lost four times and the defense has allowed nearly 15 points per game more than their season average in those contests. So for as good as Frank Beamer’s teams have been in the regular season they have largely failed to live up to the hype come postseason play. While this could be considered just another game for Virginia Tech, it is a big deal for Cincinnati. Brian Kelly is a great coach and his teams are on a 34-12 spread run dating back to his time at Central Michigan. Finding ways to win regardless

   of the situation or opponent is something Cincinnati does regularly. No reason to expect anything different here.

   COTTON BOWL

   Ole Miss +5.5 vs. Texas Tech O/U 70.5

   Friday, January 2, 2 pm ET FOX - Dallas

   Recommendation: Ole Miss

   Key questions need to be asked about any team when they take on Texas Tech. First, how good is their secondary? Can their cornerbacks tackle in man coverage? Can they tackle in the open field? How good is the fifth or sixth cornerback in the rotation? Teams that lack secondary depth or that don’t tackle well in space downfield are in big trouble against the Red Raiders offense. We think Ole Miss can answer all of these questions just fine. Texas Tech is undersized on their defensive front, but they are relentless at the line of scrimmage; a hard nosed, quick and physical group of linemen. They did not fare well against the biggest, most physical offensive lines that they faced, but dominated against all other units. Ole Miss measures up here as well. Texas Tech’s offense has been contained against quality defenses in bowl games throughout the Mike Leach era. The extra time to prepare for this explosive passing game is most certainly a factor, as is the overall team speed on defense. We saw Alabama hold the Red Raiders to ten points in a Cotton Bowl win three years ago. Two years ago, Minnesota shut TTU down for three quarters, holding them to 14 points before collapsing in the fourth quarter. Last year, Virginia accomplished that same task as Texas Tech produced only two touchdowns on ten drives through the first three quarters. In that game another fourth quarter offensive explosion earned the Red Raiders a non-spread covering three-point win. Texas Tech finished the 2008 regular season with their only one loss coming at Oklahoma. Senior quarterback Graham Harrell is a proven winner and is blessed with plenty of weapons. Playmaker Michael Crabtree caught 93 passes, 18 of them going for touchdowns in this his sophomore season. Moreover, if he is shut down, eight other receivers caught at least 15 passes. Running backs Shannon Woods and Baron Batch kept opposing defenses honest and overall this offense scored at least 35 points in all 11 of their regular season victories. Meanwhile their normally suspect defense held every opponent but the Sooners to 33 points or less. Ole Miss won its last five games in impressive fashion, closing out the regular season with dominating performances against LSU and Mississippi State. They were the only team to beat Florida but we can’t help but look at Ole Miss and wonder “what if”? In each of the Rebels’ four losses, they committed at least three turnovers and lost the turnover battle in each instance. Overall, Ole Miss is a legitimate top 25 team. They didn’t lose a single contest by more than a touchdown and after struggling early on with interceptions and fumbles, quarterback Jevon Snead closed out the campaign with a 13-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio during their five-game winning streak. If Snead performs at that level, Ole Miss is going to score enough points to make this a ball game. We also add in the motivation factor as we can not expect Texas Tech to be motivated or excited by playing an 8-4 team in what is no longer a premier bowl? If Ole Miss can avoid falling behind early, the confidence gained will lead to a competitive game that stays within the number.

   LIBERTY BOWL

   Kentucky vs. East Carolina -1.5 O/U 42

   Friday, January 2, 5 pm ESPN - Memphis, Tenn.

   Recommendation: East Carolina

   ** NO WRITE - UP FOR THIS AS THEY HAD MISTAKENLY PUT THE SAME WRITE - UP AS THE BC / VANDY GAME

   SUGAR BOWL

   Utah vs. Alabama -10.5 O/U 45.5

   Friday, January 2, 8 pm ET FOX - New Orleans

   Recommendation: Alabama

   It is a certainty that the Sugar Bowl representatives will be hoping for a more competitive result than last year’s game between the undefeated mid-major entrant Hawaii and its SEC opponent, Georgia.

   Utah fans are dreaming of an upset and it’s second undefeated season in five years. Meanwhile Alabama supporters are counting on the Crimson Tide to show up in what could be a flat spot after losing to Florida in the SEC Championship. It’s certainly conceivable that Alabama players lost their edge and focus after losing to the Gators in the SEC Championship. That loss ended their hopes for a national title and the first undefeated season since 1992. However, if we were choosing one coach in college football who would demand

   of his players one last effort and get it, that coach would be Nick Saban. With heavy personnel losses due to injury and suspension Saban routinely got the absolute best from an influx of talented but inexperienced freshman. We’ll call for more of that “Saban Magic”

   in this matchup. Motivation aside, the Crimson Tide’s overwhelming advantage

   in size, speed and strength will be on full display in New Orleans. It starts up front with perhaps the two most dominating lines in college football.

   Led by Antoine Caldwell, Mike Johnson and Andre Smith the offensive line paved the way for Glenn Coffee and freshman Mark Ingram to run for over 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. This imposing

   ground game made even the most difficult defenses wilt and alleviated much of the pressure from quarterback John Parker Wilson. Utah will need to send a minimum of nine into the box with their undersized defensive line in hopes of slowing down Alabama. That will leave them exposed in the secondary where freshman sensation Julio Jones can do real damage. The onus then falls on Utah quarterback Brian Johnson and the offense to keep pace. Although they averaged a rock solid 400+ yards and 37.5 ppg on the year a quick analysis of the schedule shows they were troubled by physically imposing

   defenses. Their faced only two opponents, TCU and New Mexico, who even came close to the kind of size and speed up front that the Tide will offer. Both teams held Utah to just 13 points. Neither of those two defenses had a player that was capable of eating up two or even three blockers at a time like Terrance “Mount” Cody. According

   to our Accu-Stat numbers, Alabama was the second best team in the country in stuffing the run and Utah just doesn’t have the firepower to exploit the Tide as a one dimensional passing attack. New Orleans is SEC country and there will no doubt be a sea of crimson

   and plenty fan support on full display in the Super Dome. We saw Hawaii crumble when faced toe-to-toe with an SEC power and while Utah is probably cut from a tougher cloth we expect a similar outcome. We project no more than 17 points for the Utes in this one and with the relative ease in which Alabama scored against bigger and better defenses it seems highly unlikely that Utah can compete.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:16pm
5. 0 likes

   INTERNATIONAL BOWL

   Buffalo vs. UConn -4 O/U 51.5

   Saturday, January 3, Noon ESPN2 - Toronto

   Recommendation: UConn

   The Big East has come out victorious in both attempts in International

   Bowl’s short existence and the stars seem to be aligning that way once again. While the Huskies aren’t quite as balanced and dynamic as Rutgers was in 2007, they feature a very similar and quite dominant ground game. The Scarlet Knights were able to take advantage of their imposing size up front and control the game on the ground against Ball State a year ago and we expect Connecticut to follow a similar game plan. UConn junior running back Donald Brown led the nation in rushing with over 1,800 yards. With 300+ carries nobody in football had as much sustained success from a yards per carry perspective. His 17 touchdowns put him in the top six in the country. He’s a workhorse back in every sense of the word and should find plenty of daylight against the Buffalo defense. Huskies quarterback Tyler Lorenzen suffered a broken foot midway through the campaign forcing a pair of inexperienced signal callers into action. To no great surprise the offense suffered. Lorenzen came back late in the season to post predictably rusty performances, the worst of which came in the finale against Pitt. But Lorenzen has plenty of experience

   and he proved last year to be more than capable as a game manager with a better than 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception

   ratio. At full strength and having a solid month to work out the kinks, we expect a solid performance. Buffalo started the campaign slowly losing five of its first seven games. It wasn’t the start Turner Gill had anticipated after returning senior

   signal caller Drew Willy and 17 other starters from a team that was ultra-competitive in 2007. However, the early struggles

   would be a distant memory by the end of the year as the Bulls rallied to win six of their last seven games including a memorable

   upset of previously undefeated Ball State in the MAC Championship game. Willy was phenomenal over the course of the year completing a high percentage of his passes while firing 25 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He, like Lorenzen, was aided by a strong ground game as James Starks rushed for 16 touchdowns.

   Defensively Buffalo is suspect and on that side of the ball, UConn holds a distinct advantage. Three of Buffalo’s wins over the back half of the season came in overtime. Four of the wins came despite being outgained by the opposition. And their MAC title came in large part because of five turnovers from Ball State. The streak brought plenty of attention from the media and Gill is all of a sudden one of the hottest coaching

   commodities on the market. Distractions will be abundant during the time off which may leave Buffalo less than fully focused

   on an imposing opponent. We’ll ride the better defense and strong ground game to get the win with the Huskies.

   FIESTA BOWL

   Ohio State vs. Texas -9.5 O/U 53.5

   Monday, January 5, 8 pm ET FOX - Glendale, Ariz.

   Recommendation: Under

   Ohio State has enjoyed tremendous success at the Fiesta Bowl this decade, winning a National Title against Miami, knocking off Kansas State as a seven-point underdog and earning their most recent bowl win against Notre Dame following the 2005 season. But since the win over the Fighting Irish, to say that Ohio State has not fared well on the national stage in recent years is something of an understatement. The Buckeyes were embarrassed in each of the last two BCS title games, losing to Florida and LSU by a combined 41 points. It didn’t get any better in their toughest

   non-conference test this season, a 35-3 wipeout at USC. And the offense

   was once again nowhere to be found when they lost their chance at another outright Big Ten title in a 13-6 loss to Penn State in Columbus. Can head coach Jim Tressel repair his squad’s national reputation in this matchup? It certainly won’t be easy against a Texas Longhorns team that got shafted by the much-maligned BCS process. The Pokes were left out of the title picture despite the fact they were the only team in the country to beat Oklahoma. Fundamentally, the Buckeyes’ offense has been mediocre at best this season; ranking 37th in the country in “true rushing” yards per carry and 68th in the country in passing yards per attempt. Freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor finished the season with just 1,245 passing yards on 95 completions but did gain 553 yards on the ground. He was the second leading rusher behind only Beanie Wells and his 1,091 rushing yards. Leading receivers

   Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie produced less than 900 receiving yards between them, which means if Ohio State can’t run, they can’t win. The Texas defense ranks No. 2 in the country against the run, allowing only 73.6 yards per game. The Longhorns

   led the nation in sacks, and held seven opponents to 14 points or less. Probably the most shocking feat is that UT held every opponent under its season average. Considering

   the explosive offenses in the Big XII this year, those numbers are downright impressive. Ohio State is going to need a very creative game plan on offense if this game becomes a shootout. But while the offense was lethargic

   for much of the year, the Buckeyes defense was tremendous. Malcolm Jenkins was arguably the nation’s best cornerback, while fellow senior James Laurinaitis won the Butkus and Nagurski

   awards as the nation’s top defensive player last year. Only USC produced more than three touchdowns against the Buckeyes’

   stop unit and after the embarrassment of poor defensive showings in each of the last two national title games, motivation is clearly on their side. We project Ohio State doing whatever it takes to avoid a track meet-type scenario. In all reality, it is their only chance to win. Texas will score but it isn’t going to come as easy and we feel confident in this game going Under the total.

   GMAC BOWL

   Tulsa vs. Ball State -2.5 O/U 77.5

   Tuesday, January 6, 8 pm ET ESPN - Mobile, Ala.

   Recommendation: Ball State

   Ball State’s loss to Buffalo should not have come as an absolute shock. With nearly everyone surrounding the program talking about an undefeated season and a potential upgrade to the Bowl assignment, the focus just wasn’t there. Now we have to wonder about the motivation for the Cardinals after having their perfect

   season end in the conference championship game. It was especially tough considering that Ball State out gained Buffalo by over 200 yards but allowed two defensive touchdowns. Tulsa comes in with a similar disappointment. After starting the season

   8-0, the Golden Hurricane dropped two straight and then as a double-digit favorite in the C-USA Championship, ran into a defensive buzz saw for the second straight year. In the loss to ECU, Tulsa moved the ball but seven turnovers were too much to overcome. In fact in Tulsa’s three losses they coughed the ball up 15 times and had just two takeaways. It is a very important stat when you consider that in those three games, even with a 641-yard outburst by Houston, the Golden Hurricane produced more total yards. Last season Tulsa hung 67 in their bowl game win over a Bowling Green team that ranked as one of the worst teams in the MAC. That Falcons squad allowed 32 ppg while this Ball State team is quite capable ranking second at 18.6 ppg allowed. However, no one on the Cardinals’ schedule featured a prolific passing attack. The top four passing teams Ball State played (all three directional Michigan schools and Buffalo) posted modest numbers (266 ypg, 8 TDs, 5 INTs). The top five defensive teams in C-USA played in the East Division. Tulsa didn’t play two of those schools and in the games against the other three, Tulsa was held to 10 points below their season average. Tulsa faced eight teams that allowed 30 ppg or more and Ball State played seven teams that allowed at least 30 ppg. So in all reality the offensive

   stats and the quality of competition

   for these two teams are virtually even. Both teams have prolific quarterbacks

   and offenses that have had little trouble scoring against all competition.

   The only games in which these two teams faltered were when multiple turnovers occurred. The advantage in the game might be found with Ball State’s seemingly better defense. If we eliminate Buffalo’s two defensive touchdowns, no team scored more than 30 points on Ball State. Tulsa gave up 30 points or more in five games and played only four games decided by a touchdown

   or less. In the four games decided by seven or less, Tulsa was 2-2 and was outscored 123-122. In assuming both squads will march the ball up and down the field all it will take is a turnover in the red zone or a special teams play to gain the edge. Tulsa’s success has been against teams that allow them to do whatever

   they want with the football and we project that Ball State is better equipped to make that key stop or big defensive play. With that in mind, we’ll back the Cardinals laying the short price.

   BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

   Oklahoma vs. Florida -3 O/U 72

   Thursday, January 8, 8 pm ET FOX - Miami

   Recommendation: Over

   It’s a long wait for these teams and for college football fans until this game is played – 27 days from the time of this writing. However, the delay is not likely to stop the anticipated offensive fireworks from happening. The offenses for both teams will be by far the best units on the field in this title game. For Florida’s defense, the Oklahoma offense

   is light years above anything they’ve seen thus far. Georgia’s attack was talented and diverse at the skill positions but the depth of game breaking personnel and the play of their makeshift offensive line is nowhere near what Oklahoma possesses.

   In their game against the Bulldogs,

   the Gators defense yielded 398 total yards. We project OU’s run/pass balance and dominant offensive line to assist in moving the football at a consistent

   rate against the speed-oriented Florida defense. Oklahoma’s offensive front allowed only 11 sacks in 476 pass attempts while paving the way to 4.8 yards per carry with a stable of running backs. On the flip side, Florida’s defense is arguably the best unit that Oklahoma will have faced. Statistically, TCU is better and the Sooners chewed them up for 35 points and 436 total yards, but Florida has more speed and better talent. What the Gators don’t have is a top-tier defensive line. Florida’s pass rush could only muster one sack against the supremely physical Alabama front, and figures to be a non-factor against OU’s equally talented unit. Without a strong rush, Oklahoma, quarterback Sam Bradford figures to have success against the Gator’s young secondary. Manny Johnson, Juaquin Iglesias Ryan Broyles and Jermaine Grisham should all combine

   for plenty of yardage and scoring. Every fundamental advantage for the Oklahoma offense exists for the Florida offense as well. The Gators team speed with wide receivers Percy Harvin, Louis Murphy and Riley Cooper will most surely overwhelm Oklahoma’s defense. Oklahoma’s defense has faced a multitude

   of explosive spread-style offenses in Big XII play and all of them accumulated

   significant yardage and points. Even more dynamic, quarterback Tim Tebow adds a dimension that the slew of gunslingers

   from the Big XII doesn’t often utilize. Tebow will force Oklahoma

   to respect the option running attack in addition to the short, intermediate and vertical passing games. The Gators have the whole package and there is no way for Oklahoma to simulate the speed and accuracy with which Florida runs its multi-pronged offense. We’ll will also factor in to the offensive projections the dynamic return games led by Florida speedster Brandon James and Oklahoma’s Ryan Broyles

   and DeMarco Murray. Good field position and short drives set up by the return games should help our cause. While this may seem like the ultimate public-square play considering the amazing 11-1 trend to the “Over” in Sooners’ games, it is hard to ignore the fundamental

   matchups. If we had to take a side, the Gators would get the nod but the value in our opinion, lies in the “Over” as all factors indicate

   that we’ll get touchdown scores on virtually every possession.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:17pm
6. 0 likes

   NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

   EAGLEBANK BOWL

   Inaugural bowl. This will be the 1st time that an NCAA bowl is played in D.C and also the 1st time in 63 yrs

   that WF has ply’d a tm 2x in the same ssn. Navy upset then #16 WF 24-17 (+16) in Winston-Salem handing

   WF their 1st loss of the yr. Navy FB Kettani rushed for a ssn-high 175 yd as Navy took adv of the fact that

   WF was off a huge win over Fla St. This is a schl rec’d 6th consec bowl trip for Navy (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS). HC

   Niumatalolo took over just prior to LY’s Poinsettia Bowl and the Mids came up just short in a 35-32 loss to Utah

   (+8). WF holds a 6-3 lead in the all-time series with Navy. The Deacons had won 4 str vs the Midshipmen until

   Navy’s win TY. These 2 have only faced 1 common opp and WF beat Duke 33-30 in OT while Navy lost 41-31.

   WF has 3 consec winning seasons for the 1st time S/’50-’52 and this is the 1st time in history they’ve gone to

   3 consec bowls. WF is 5-3 all-time SU & 4-2 ATS in bowls. This is Grobe’s 8th yr at WF and 4th bowl (2-1 SU

   & ATS). WF faced 9 bowl caliber tms going 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS and was outscored 18-16 & outgained 297-290.

   Navy faced 7 bowl opps TY with a 4-3 SU/ATS record but was outscored 26-23 and outgained 377-307. WF’s

   16 Sr’s will leave as the winningest class (31-19). WF has 9 Sr sts and 18 upperclassmen while Navy has 11

   Sr sts and 16 upperclassmen. Both tms play on FieldTurf and WF went 1-3 SU & ATS on grass while Navy was

   1-1 SU/ATS. Navy clinched this bowl Nov 1st giving them much more time to sell tickets and brought 20,000+

   fans to each of their bowls the last few yrs, so Navy will have a definite crowd edge.

   Navy’s #54 off struggled TY due to QB inj’s. Senior Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was the starter in ‘07,

   but suffered a hamstring inj in the pressn which bothered him all yr and he only saw action in 5 gms. Bkup

   Sr QB Bryant took over and started 6, but the off struggled behind him as it is scaled back when he is in the

   lineup and only Kaipo runs the full triple-option. Bryant suffered a shldr inj vs SMU which forced 3rd string

   soph QB Dobbs off the bench and he led the tm with 224 rush yds & 4 TD in his first extensive action. Dobbs

   came off the bench vs Temple to lead the tm to a 33-27 OT win (down 20 pts in 4Q), then led the tm to 14 pts

   in the 4Q vs ND in a near-comeback earning him the start at NIll (16-0 win). Kaipo started the tm’s 34-0 win

   over Army and should get the start here as long as he’s healthy. SB Shun White, MVP of the Army gm (147

   yds), rushed for a schl rec’d 348 yds in the opener vs Towson and teamed with FB Kettani to lead Navy to

   an NCAA leading 298 rush ypg (5.4). Navy’s OL avg 6’3” 277 with 2 Sr sts. The D ranks #80 but made large

   strides TY despite facing one of the toughest slates of opps in recent history. Navy all’d 50 less ypg rushing

   and 47 ypg less passing than LY but still is #99 in our pass D rankings all’g 66% comp’s. Navy is #79 in our

   ST rankings led by super K Harmon and got their win over AF on 2 blk’d punts ret’d for TD’s.

   Under Grobe, WF is 26-12 SU over the L3Y, the most successful 3 year stretch in WF history incl winning

   the ACC Title in ‘06 foll’d by a trip to the Orange Bowl. QB Riley Skinner is now 25-11 as a st’r and ranks 4th

   in the ACC in ttl off & pass eff. With his 8 rec’s in the ssn finale vs Vandy, WR DJ Boldin’s 77 rec’s gives him 1

   of the top 10 pass-catching seasons in ACC history. RB Adams rushed for 111 yds vs Miami but missed the

   next 2 (ankle) & Pendergrass took over the starting job. WF OL avg 6’4” 290 but paved the way for just 2.9 ypc

   rush while all’g 30 sks. Starting RG McMillian suffered a leg inj vs BC (exp to miss). While WF only has our

   #87 off, they do have our #14 D. WF leads the NCAA with 35 TO’s. Wake’s rush D is all’g 3.4 ypc. The DL avg

   6’3” 272 and has 15.5 of the 22 sks. HM ACC NT Boo Robinson leads this group. Butkus winner Aaron Curry

   is #2 among active ACC players in career tkls w/328. WF has our #30 pass D and is all’g 184 ypg (53%) and

   has 17 int. AA & 1st Tm ACC CB Alphonso Smith now has 20 career pickoffs and shares the top spot on the

   ACC’s all-time list with former AA Dre’ Bly. Bkups S Alex Frye and DT Michael Carter were susp vs NCSt, BC

   and Vandy and will not play in the bowl. WF has our #17 sp tms. K Sam Swank, who missed half the yr with

   a quad inj, kicked his 71st career FG vs Vandy and moved into 2nd place in the ACC. The Deacons are avg

   19.9 on KR and 5.8 on PR and are all’g an amazing 0.7 ypr on PR (#1 NCAA) and 20.7 on KR.

   While Navy finished the season with B2B shutouts it was vs the #110 offense of Army and #84 of NIll.

   While WF’s offense won’t scare off many, they are able to provide a much more balanced attack exposing

   Navy’s defensive weakness (our #99 pass D). It’s tough to go against a service academy in a bowl as their

   routine and discipline keep them focused but with only 3 wks between this game, Wake’s focus will be intact.

   We’ll side with a Demon Deacons squad that gets revenge from losing as a 16 pt fav as they lost the TO battle

   by a 6-2 margin. It also helps to have prepped for this same option offense for the 3rd time in 14 months.

   FORECAST: WAKE FOREST BY 7

   RATING: 1* WAKE FOREST

   NEW MEXICO BOWL

   These two used to play each other as WAC foes & Colo St holds a slight 6-4 SU & ATS edge. FSU

   has won 3 of the L/5, but CSU has won the L/2 incl the last meeting in ‘06. FSU is playing in its 9th bowl

   gm in the L/10Y & the Bulldogs are 10-7 SU & 6-6 ATS in bowls, while this is the Rams’ 1st bowl game

   S/’05. FSU HC Hill is in his 12th ssn & 5-3 ATS (4-4 SU) all-time in bowls. However, the Bulldogs are

   just 11-25 ATS the L/3Y. Hill interviewed for the Wash job but just days afterward removed his name from

   consideration & stated he was staying in Fresno. CSU’s new HC Fairchild was an NFL OC prior to arriving

   to take over for the legendary Sonny Lubick. The ex-Ram QB spent time on the CSU staff under Lubick

   as the QB coach and OC. FSU faced 7 bowl elig tms & went 2-5 SU/ATS and was outscored 27-23 &

   outgained 387-364, while CSU faced 6 bowl elig tms going 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS) being outscored 35-20 &

   outgained 448-338. FSU, the preseason fav in the WAC, enjoyed its usual wealth of non-conf success

   vs BCS tms with wins over UCLA & Rutgers and a near upset of then #10 Wisky. But once again, the

   elusive outright WAC Title avoided the Bulldogs as they stumbled in their conf opener en route to a .500

   finish in the WAC (4-4 SU, just 1-7 ATS) & ended the season losing 3 of the L/5. CSU went 4-4 SU & 5-3

   ATS in conf play & 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) outside of Ft Collins. The Rams are 12-18 ATS S/’04 as a dog and

   are 0-4 SU & ATS as an AD TY. They do have the adv of having played in this stadium before (did not

   play here TY). These two had no common opp’s TY. CSU last played 11/22 while Fresno played 11/28.

   CSU has 17 upperclassmen incl 9 Sr’s while FSU has 11 upperclassmen with 6 Sr’s.

   FSU’s OL avg 6’3”, 289 with two Sr starters. The unit all’d just 17 sks & is anchored by 1st Tm WAC OT

   Lepori. The Bulldogs’ balanced off avg 207 ypg pass (5th in WAC) & 177 ypg rush (3rd in the WAC) & avg

   29.2 ppg (3rd in WAC). QB Brandstater quietly put together another solid ssn finishing 4th in the WAC with

   207 ypg passing. WR Ajirotutu developed into FSU’s go-to receiver & gave them a legitimate vertical threat

   while TE Pascoe provided another steady option. Fresno has a trio of RB’s with over 500 yds each. Mathews

   was the feature RB before being slowed by an inj (CS) but Harding & Miller are both equally capable runners.

   FSU’s DL avg 6’3” 269 with 1 Sr starter & has recorded 12 of the tm’s 17 sks. But the Bulldogs’ rush

   D is #104 in the NCAA yielding 197 ypg & has all’d 7 of 12 tms TY to rush for 200+. However, in 2 of the

   L/3 gms, FSU held foes to negative rush yds. Fresno’s #69 rated pass D has been steady but for the 2nd

   consec yr FSU finished last in the NCAA with only 4 int as a tm. Fresno is #1 in the NCAA in blk’d kicks

   S/’02 with 44 & blk’d 2 vs Boise in its last outing. The ST unit is highlighted by KR Jefferson who is #5 in

   the NCAA & is the active career leader (avg 32.3 ypr). After missing 3 of 4 FG’s in a 3 pt loss to Wisky in

   wk 2, K Goessling has really improved his accuracy going 13-17 the L/10 gms, incl a 58 yd GW over USU.

   FSU avg 23.8 on KR & 14.5 on PR while all’g 24 on KR & 14.9 on PR (#118 NCAA).

   It was an up & down ssn for CSU incl barely squeaking by a IAA foe, catching TCU in a clear lookahead

   (only lost by 6), trailing bottom-dweller SDSt at the half before going TD-for-TD vs the 2x defending MWC

   Champ BYU. Needing a win to become bowl elig, they traveled to WY for the Border War & won 31-20

   despite being outgained 429-422. CSU’s #67 off is led by 1st yr starter, Sr QB Farris. Fairchild has remarked

   several times that he’d love to have him for another yr. Farris’ fav target is Greer, who after not catching a

   pass in his 1st 2 yrs, broke the 1,000 yd mark. Sr RB Johnson has 5x the yds of the #2 rusher. The OL avg

   6’5” 299 with 1 Sr starter & has started 72% of the gms together. They pave the way for 130 ypg rush (3.7)

   but have all’d 25 sks (6.3%). The D ranks #103 in our standings. The DL avg 6’5” 269 with 3 Sr’s & has

   started 75% of the gms together. They are all’g 185 rush ypg (5.2) & the tm has tallied just 10 sks (2.7%),

   with only 4 of those by DL. The Rams rank #102 in our pass eff D all’g 223 ypg (64%) with a 22-9 ratio.

   CSU avg 21.7 ypr on KR & just 6.1 on PR while all’g 25.7 ypr on KR & 13.0 on PR to rank #104 in ST’s.

   Fresno’s seasons are becoming predictable as they set the bar high and fall into a midseason swoon.

   Last season HC Hill rallied his troops to win 3 of the L/4 gms and they controlled GT in the bowl for an easy

   4H winner for us. This yr they dropped 9 str ATS before splitting the last 2 but there’s plenty of value. Fresno

   would have been a DD fav earlier this season and HC Hill is reenergized towards this Bulldogs program following

   his snub from UW. FSU is excited to be here and expect the “Red Wave” to give them the fan edge.

   FORECAST: FRESNO ST BY 10

   RATING: 3* FRESNO ST

   ST PETERSBURG BOWL

   Inaugural magicJack St Petersburg Bowl. These 2 have met 4x’s (2-2), the last meeting was a 31-15 UM win

   in ‘04. Memphis is 3-1 ATS vs the Bulls. This will be the Bulls 4th consec bowl incl LY’s 56-21 loss to Oreg in the

   Sun Bowl. USF is off a disappointing ssn after being a pre-ssn BE fav and darkhorse Nat’l Title contender. The

   Bulls once again rose into the Top 10 only to lose 4 out of 5 and fall into this bowl. UM is making its 5th bowl

   appearance the L/6Y, incl a 44-27 loss (+3) to FAU in LY’s New Orleans Bowl. HC West is 2-2 SU/ATS in bowl

   gms at Mem. UM & USF had 2 common opp’s in UCF & L’Ville. The Tigers went 0-2 SU/ATS and were outscored

   32-25, despite outgaining them 393-247. The Bulls needed OT to defeat UCF & had a disappointing loss to UL.

   USF outscored those opp’s 26-24 & outgained them 428-275. The Bulls have played 7 bowl caliber tms (3-4 SU/

   ATS) being outscored 24-21 but outgaining them 369-347. The Tigers played 4 bowl tms going 1-3 SU/ATS being

   outscored 36-26 despite outgaining them 419-416. The Bulls are just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS on turf while UM plays

   its home gms on turf. USF has 12 Sr starters among 19 upperclassmen and UM has 11 Sr starters among their

   19 upperclassmen. The Bulls were 3-3 SU but 2-4 ATS on the road, while UM was 2-3 SU & 2-2-1 ATS in AG’s.

   The crowd edge goes to USF which is only 23 miles from the field, while UM struggled avg just 25,000 at home

   which incl 40,000 for UL game. Their home finale drew 15,000 and that was for bowl elig. USF has been a fav in

   21 gms the L/2Y and is 9-12 ATS with 8 SU losses, while UM is 8-5 ATS as a dog the L/2Y, with 5 outrights.

   UM was forced to use 5 QB’s due to inj TY, incl a WR who didn’t even play QB in HS. UM lost both starting

   QB Hall (out 2+ wks, broken thumb) & bkup Hudgens (ssn, knee) within a couple of plays in their loss

   at E Car (30-10, +8). Jr Brett Toney was forced into action having only thrown 1 career pass. True Fr Bass

   (PS#135) was set to split time with Toney, but he was lost for the ssn the next wk (knee). Toney started 2

   gms (2-0 SU/ATS) & was backed up by WR Jones. Despite the inj, UM has our #44 off which managed 28

   ppg and 432 ypg. The OL avg 6’5” 296 and opened holes for 206 ypg (4. rushing and all’d just 16 sks.

   RB Steele (CUSA Newcomer of the Yr) was #3 in CUSA in rush yds after coming in from JC. QB Hall ret’d

   to start the L/2 & avg’d 146 ypg (53%) with a 1-1 ratio. WR Singleton provides a big target (6’6”) & UM has

   multiple receivers who can stretch the field. The Tigers have our #82 D all’g 26 ppg & 342 ypg, but only

   managed 20 sks. The DL avg 6’3” 280 but all’d 4.7 ypc. They are led by DT McDonald, who had a team high

   7 sks despite missing 3 gms (inj). They have our #66 pass eff D all’g 196 ypg (53%) with a 16-7 ratio. The

   Tigers have our #80 ST’s & made 14-19 FG’s (11-13 inside 40) & were #5 in CUSA in net punting (36.4).

   They had 3 kicks blk’d (2 FG, 1 P) & also all’d a 95 yd KR TD.

   USF has our #40 off avg 397 ypg & 27 ppg. The Bulls off, on paper, looked to be tops in the BE with 10

   sts returning and the backfield & WR’s were loaded with talent. Inj’s depleted the RB unit and Grothe once

   again was left to carry the off. He led the tm for the 2nd yr in rushing and avg 223 ypg pass. Bama transfers

   Ford & Taylor never made the impact expected, as both had inj’s that made the off one-dimensional. USF

   has a slew of speed at WR and Hester emerged as the go-to-guy with Johnson #2 and Love #3. The offense

   is in the worst 5 gm stretch in school history avg 14 ppg in that span. The OL features 4 Sr’s that has paved

   the way for 160 ypg (4.1), all’g 26 sks. The USF def has our #21 ranking all’g 21 ppg and 292 ypg, despite

   losing some NFL’rs & suffering key inj’s losing DE Selvie for 2 gms & MLB Mompremier (neck) for the year

   after 4 gms. Unfortunately, his promising career is over. The def kept USF in most of their gms while the

   offense struggled. The DL is all’g just 97.7 ypg rush (#9 NCAA) and has 18 of their 22 sks. They are lead by

   AA DE Selvie whose numbers are down from LY, due to facing double and triple teams 60+% of the time. The

   LB corps is led by 1st Tm BE McKenzie who has 355 tkls the L/3Y. The Bulls have our #48 pass D ranking

   allowing 194 ypg (53%) and a 15-10 ratio. The unit truly missed LY’s CB’s Jenkins & Williams, despite Leavitt’s

   promise that they wouldn’t miss a step. The ST’s have our #59 ranking led by KR Bogan’s 25.9 ypr. The K gm

   struggled early before they made the move to Fr Bonani who kicked the GW vs Kansas.

   USF underachieved for a 2nd straight year and was hoping for much better results. They dropped 4 of

   their L/5 gms SU and their only win was a 1 pt cover at home vs Conn. Memphis played much better than

   their 6-6 record and due to QB inj’s were down to a 4th stringer at times. The layoff will help their offense

   regain its early season form, while USF’s layoff will remind them of disappointing year and their 35 pt loss

   in the bowl last year. Non-NY’s Day dogs of 12+ are now 9-2 82% since ‘96. USF has a more talented

   defense but this Memphis team has the players and the ability to keep this game close.

   FORECAST: MEMPHIS (+) THE PTS USF BY 3

   RATING: 2* MEMPHIS

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:18pm
7. 0 likes

   LAS VEGAS BOWL

   These two are former WAC rivals (‘60-’70’s) & this is the 22nd meeting between the two (1st in a bowl

   gm). This is BYU’s 4th consec trip here where they’ve gone 2-1 SU/ATS, which is also Mendenhall’s bowl

   rec’d. LY BYU blk’d a 28 yd chip shot FG (by a fingertip) and walked away with a 17-16 win over UCLA.

   Cougar fans travel very well to Vegas and were part of the largest gathering to witness a tm sporting event

   in NV history in ‘06 when they dismantled Oregon 38-8 (-3’). UA is in its 1st bowl in 10 yrs & regained

   some much needed momentum after their big victory in the finale vs ASU. These two faced 3 common

   foes TY (Wash, UCLA, NM) and BYU went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS, only tm that lost to UW ATS all yr) with solid

   point (36-10) & ydg (459-287) edges while UA went 2-1 SU/ATS blowing an expected win at NM despite

   being a 10’ pt fav (36-20 avg score, outgained tms 390-258). Both played 4 bowl tms with BYU going 2-2

   SU (1-3 ATS) outgaining them 437-412 while the Wildcats went just 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) being outgained

   421-354. The Cougs have 9 Sr starters & 19 upperclassmen while UA has 8 Sr’s & 16 upperclassmen.

   Both play on grass but BYU has a bit of an adv on the turf at Sam Boyd Stadium (home of UNLV) as they

   have played here 5x’s in the L/3Y. Both have struggled on the road TY going a comb 2-9 ATS.

   QB Tuitama holds virtually every UA passing rec’d as they switched over to the TT spread off LY

   when former Red Raider OC Dykes accepted the same pos at UA. Fighting off inj’s during his first 2

   yrs, Tuitama has failed to miss a start in the L/2Y flourishing as the leader of the off. RB Grigsby began

   the yr as the only legitimate threat out of the backfield, however, his tendency to fmbl all’d true frosh

   Antolin to emerge as more than just a KR as he posted a huge game in a key victory vs Cal. The WR/

   TE combo of Thomas & Gronkowski is arguably the most dangerous in the P10 despite the fact that

   Gronkowski missed the beginning of the yr due to an illness. The Wildcats OL avg 6’5” 313 & is led

   by outstanding 1st Tm P10 LT Britton who has helped pave the way for 164 ypg (4.1) while they have

   all’d 27 sks (7.2%). Overall UA ranks as our #16 off. The DL avg 6’3” 270 all’g 132 ypg (4.2) on the ssn

   while the D collected 22 sks (6.1%). The LB corps is led by Ronnie Palmer who is the heart & soul of

   the UA D but they will be w/o #3 tklr Lewis who is susp here. The Wildcats lost both of their CB’s LY to

   the NFL but have seen LY’s bkups step up strongly led by Devin Ross. Overall the secondary has our

   #14 pass eff def ranking all’g 170 ypg (55%) with an 11-15 ratio while the D ranks #28. The Cats have

   a solid ST unit ranking (#10 overall) led by the explosive ret’s of 1st Tm P10 PR Thomas.

   All the early talk was about BYU busting the BCS until they were thrashed by TCU. They were still

   in the running for a MWC Title until a 48-24 loss to Utah. BYU is led by Hall, whose 69.6 comp % ranks

   #1 among BYU’s legendary QB’s. He holds the single-ssn MWC rec’d for TD passes & has thrown one

   in 22 of his 25 career gms. His fav target is WR Collie, who has gone over the 100 rec yd mark in 10

   str gms, doubling the old MWC rec’d. He is BYU’s all-time leading rec and ranks #1 in the NCAA in rec

   ypg. Hall’s other fav target is his bro-in-law, Pitta. The Mackey Semi-Finalist has made huge grabs, many

   coming in the 2H after tm’s adjusted to Collie. He was limited in the last gm (MCL) but should be 100%

   here. The OL avg 6’6” 326 with 4 Sr’s and placed 2 on the 1st Tm MWC (1 on 2nd). They have paved

   the way for 136 ypg rush (4.2) while all’g 18 sks (4.0%) TY. BYU has our #15 offense. The D comes

   in at #71. They have forced 27 TO’s TY, conv 18 into pts. The DL is led by MWC sack record-holder

   Jorgensen, who has 21.5 in his career but many tms focused on him TY and he has just 5. The DL has

   recorded 11.5 (55%) of the tm’s 21 sks. The young secondary has been burned giving up some big

   plays TY but CB Johnson could return here (tm’s #4 tklr) after missing the L/3. BYU ranks #91 in our

   pass eff D all’g 207 ypg (60%) with a 15-9 ratio. The ST’s unit is #19 in our rankings. BYU avg just 3.8

   ypr on PR (gives up 7.7) but 25.2 on KR (22.0 all’d). They have not had a KR TD in 130 consec gms.

   BYU has circled Pac-10 gms winning 5 of 6, including beating Washington and UCLA this year. They are,

   however, disappointed to be here as their entire season hinged around a BCS run. Arizona snapped a 10

   year non-bowl streak and is thrilled to make this Las Vegas Bowl appearance. BYU finished the season avg

   38 ppg the L/5 while Arizona held 3 of their L/5 opp’s to 19 pts or less. The teams played similar strengths

   of schedule but keep in mind MWC teams were 6-1 SU vs Pac-10 TY giving a slight edge to BYU.

   FORECAST: BYU BY 1

   RATING: 2* BYU

   NEW ORLEANS BOWL

   This is Troy’s first outright SBC Title, 2nd trip to New Orleans Bowl and 3rd bowl bid in 5 yrs. Larry

   Blakeney has been Troy’s HC for 18 yrs taking them to the ‘04 Silicon Valley Classic (1st school bowl)

   losing 34-21(-3) to N Illinois as they were outgained 359-292. In ‘06, Troy captured their 1st SBC Title

   (shared w/MT) and won their 1st bowl gm in schl history, a decisive 41-17 victory over Rice here. Troy

   played 6 bowl elig tms TY, incl 3 BCS foes, and went 3-3 SU (5-1 ATS). They outscored their opp’s 30-25

   while outgaining them 378-368. Troy was outgaining Ohio St at half in their 28-10 loss, got blown out

   by Okla St 55-24 (outgained only 255-231 at half) and led LSU 31-3 in 3Q before losing 40-31. SMiss

   began the ssn 2-6 under new HC Fedora (OC at OKSt LY) appearing as though they would miss a bowl

   for the 1st time S/’01. They regrouped and finished the ssn on a 4 gm SU/ATS win streak to get here and

   are now looking to secure their 15th winning ssn in a row (#4 in NCAA). This is the 1st bowl as a HC for

   Fedora. LY, the Eagles were unable to send former HC Bower out with a victory, as they lost 31-21 (+11)

   to Cincy in the Papajohns.com Bowl. SM played 6 bowl elig tms and went 3-3 SU/ATS, outscoring their

   opps 29-26 and outgaining them 439-425. Both tms won & covered vs ULL and Ark St. Troy outscored

   them 42-6 and outgained them 399-294, while SM outscored them 39-23 and outgained them 491-421.

   Both tms play on turf with Troy going 5-4 ATS and SM finishing 5-5 ATS. Troy has 10 Sr’s among their

   19 upperclassmen starters while SM has 5 Sr’s among their 12 upperclassmen starters. Troy went 5-2

   ATS away from home, incl 3-1 as a fav. SM went 4-2 ATS on the road, incl 2-1 as a dog.

   Troy got here by beating Ark St 35-9 in their last gm of the ssn. This is their 3rd yr in the spread off and

   they have our #50 off. They are led by QB Brown, as starting QB Hampton went down with an inj vs FAU.

   WR Jernigan leads the WR’s while 3 others have 20+ catches. The RB’s are led by Harris who had four 100

   yd gms (3 in L/5). He was also #5 in rec yds. The OL avg 6’2” 299 with 2 Sr’s and only all’d 9 sks (1.9%)

   while opening holes for 175 ypg (5.1) on the yr. The DL, which had 30.5 of the tm’s 38 sks, lost DE Mainor

   after gm 3 (knee). They are allowing 139 ypg (3.5). The LB corps may be the best in the SBC (3 of top 4

   tklrs) as they have 10 of the 21 int. The secondary has 9 int led by FS Martin. Troy has our #56 D all’g 21

   ppg and 319 ypg. They have the #22 pass eff D all’g 180 ypg (55%) with a 16-21 ratio. Troy has our #25

   ST unit. K Glusman has hit 7-11 from 40+ with a long of 48 and Troy ranks #40 in the NCAA in net punting

   (36.3), which is #1 in SBC. Troy avg 21.3 on KR but gives up 18.0. On PR, they avg 9.6 and give up 2.5.

   Fedora’s spread offense (our #35) produced a schl rec’d 5,214 yds while avg 31 ppg displaying

   outstanding balance avg 196 yds on the ground and 238 through the air. RFr QB Davis became the

   1st Eagles’ Fr to start an opener S/’91 setting a schl rec’d for ttl off (3323). He also set schl Fr records

   for pass yds and TD passes, surpassing Brett Favre’s mark of 15 TD in ’87. His fav target is True Frosh

   Brown as they hooked for a schl rec’d 97 yd TD pass vs EC. Brown led all Fr with 96.1 ypg and his

   height (6’6”) causes constant matchup problems for opposing DB’s. TE Nelson provides a big target

   that can threaten the middle of the field. RB Fletcher led CUSA in rushing avg 112 ypg (6.0), behind

   an OL that avg’s 6’4” 293. The D has been the key to the Eagles’ turnaround all’g just 8.8 ppg the L/4

   after yielding 31 ppg the first 8. SM has our #73 D with LY’s CUSA Def POY LB McGrath leading the

   tm in tkls by a large margin (53). The DL avg’s 6’3” 267 and is all’g 4.4 ypc struggling to get pressure

   on the QB, but has 13 of the tms 16 sks. SM is #52 in our pass eff D rankings all’g 224 ypg (58%) with

   a 24-17 ratio. They have our #93 ST’s and have struggled in the kicking game hitting just 10-19 FG’s

   (2-6 over 40) and were last in CUSA in net punting (31..

   HC Fedora has done an exceptional job changing the mentality of Southern Miss to a high-energy

   team. They had a midseason stretch in which they lost 5 straight SU/ATS but rebounded to win and

   cover the L/4 outscoring their foes by an avg of 34-9. Troy took care of business by taking the SBC

   Title and reaching the 8 win mark for a third straight season. This year’s performance was impressive

   as they played toe-to-toe at Ohio St and only trailed 14-10 at half while outplaying LSU at Death Valley

   and leading 31-3 in the 2H. We’ll side with this Troy team that has the DL to pressure the SM QB and

   the secondary to slow him down.

   FORECAST: TROY BY 6 RATING:

   1* TROY

   POINSETTIA BOWL

   This is TCU’s 10th bowl in 11 years & they are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS (4-0-1 L/5) under HC Patterson

   while this is BSU’s 9th bid in 10 yrs (5-3 SU/ATS) and they are 1-1 SU/ATS under Petersen. #19 TCU’s

   last bowl loss was 34-31 (+11) to #18 Boise in the inaugural Ft Worth Bowl (‘03), the schools’ only

   previous matchup. It is the only Dec bowl that matches 2 DD win teams and the combined rankings

   of the 2 teams are the highest among non-BCS bowls (5th overall). TCU led Utah for over 59 mins

   before allowing a TD pass which cost them the MWC Title. Ironically, that Utes win cost Boise a

   coveted BCS bid but at least the Broncos get a quality opp here. The Frogs have lost to teams with a

   combined 24-1 record (Oklahoma & Utah) while BSU won their 6th WAC Title (2nd under Petersen)

   in the L/7Y and went undefeated for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Frogs faced 5 bowl-caliber tms

   & went 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS outscoring those opp 22-14 & outgaining them 392-274. BSU faced 8

   bowl-elig tms & went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS outscoring them by 20 ppg & outgaining them by 97 ypg.

   TCU has 17 upperclassmen starters including 13 Sr’s while BSU has 13 upperclassmen & 11 Sr’s.

   TCU plays on a grass HF while the Broncos are 3-0 ATS the L/2Y on the real stuff. TCU went 9-2

   ATS as a fav while BSU went 3-1 SU/ATS as a dog including the bowls L/3Y. Not surprisingly BCS

   schools have courted both HC’s but both have remained loyal for now.

   TCU has our #31 off and is led by dual threat QB Dalton who made 10 starts (missed 2 gms w/

   inj) & accounted for 19 ttl TD’s (11 pass, 8 rush). Dalton’s bkup, Jackson, is the tm’s #3 rusher in a

   limited role. Leading WR Young has more than 3x the ttl rec yds and twice the TD’s of any other rec

   on the tm & was named 2nd Tm MWC. TCU’s OL avg 6’4” 311 with 3 Sr starters. They pave the way

   for 216 ypg rush (4.4) while all’g 18 sks (5.4%). TCU is #2 in our D rankings & has simply dominated

   all ssn. The Horned Frogs have all’d 7+ pts in just 5 gms & surrendered just 11 ppg (#2 NCAA). The

   DL avg 6’2” 269 with 3 Sr’s & the cohesive unit has started every game. They are #1 in the NCAA

   all’g just 49 ypg rush (1.7) which is 25 ypg better than any other team in the nation! The D is led

   by AA & MWC D POY (1st D POY at TCU S/’02) Jerry Hughes who leads the nation in sks with 14.

   TCU has the #4 pass eff D all’g just 166 ypg (49%) with an 8-14 ratio. The ST’s unit (#18) avg 27.0

   ypr on KR & 11.9 ypr on PR. Ret specialist Kerley is the 4th consec 1st Tm MWC RS for TCU. The

   Horned Frogs give up an avg of 19.0 on KR & 7.7 on PR & they have also all’d 3 blk’d K’s TY.

   Kellen Moore became the first frosh to start at QB in BSU history & turned in a fantastic year en

   route to earning ‘08 WAC Frosh of the Year honors. Moore led the WAC in pass eff, comp % & TD

   passes & was 2nd in pass ypg & ttl off. BSU’s OL avg 6’3” 285 with 2 Sr’s & is anchored by 1st Tm

   WAC LT Woodruff who was the only OL to start every game TY. While RB Johnson recorded his

   fewest total rushing yds since his frosh ssn (‘05), he was still an integral part of the Broncos’ offense

   as he led BSU in rushing & TD’s & is the nation’s active leader in career rush TD’s with 57. WR

   Childs earned 1st Tm WAC honors & is #4 in the WAC in rec per game & rec ypg, while WR Pettis

   nabbed 2nd Tm WAC honors. BSU has our #20 off & our #14 D with 3 players (DE Winterswyk, S

   Powers & CB Wilson) named 1st Tm WAC. BSU’s DL avg 6’3” 260 with 3 Sr’s & is all’g just 105 ypg

   rush (3.0) while posting 22 of the team’s 34 sks. Boise all’d just 12.3 ppg (#3 NCAA) & held 8 foes to

   10 or less pts (6 to 7 or less). BSU just missed breaking the WAC record for fewest pts all’d in conf

   play (89) with 94 with the D only all’g 67 of those pts. BSU has our #3 ST unit. K/P Brotzman has

   range beyond 50 yds & has made all 115 of his PAT’s (128 is WAC record). He is also a rugby-style

   P. Wilson (2nd Tm WAC on ST) is a huge threat on PR’s with his NCAA-leading 3 PR TD’s.

   TCU has been the poster child for defensive teams and they’ve held every opp to 14 pts or less

   except for Oklahoma, which they held to a season-low 35. Boise, meanwhile, has solid D numbers

   but their WAC sk’d is much lighter. Boise rates as a slightly better offensive tm having avg’d 49 ppg

   the L/5 but a closer look shows that they’ve only played 1 D rated in the NCAA’s top half. Expect the

   Horned Frogs to shut down another bowl foe as they’ve allowed a total of 20 pts the L/2 bowl gms.

   FORECAST: TCU BY 13

   RATING: 3* TCU

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:18pm
8. 0 likes

   LAS VEGAS BOWL

   These two are former WAC rivals (‘60-’70’s) & this is the 22nd meeting between the two (1st in a bowl

   gm). This is BYU’s 4th consec trip here where they’ve gone 2-1 SU/ATS, which is also Mendenhall’s bowl

   rec’d. LY BYU blk’d a 28 yd chip shot FG (by a fingertip) and walked away with a 17-16 win over UCLA.

   Cougar fans travel very well to Vegas and were part of the largest gathering to witness a tm sporting event

   in NV history in ‘06 when they dismantled Oregon 38-8 (-3’). UA is in its 1st bowl in 10 yrs & regained

   some much needed momentum after their big victory in the finale vs ASU. These two faced 3 common

   foes TY (Wash, UCLA, NM) and BYU went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS, only tm that lost to UW ATS all yr) with solid

   point (36-10) & ydg (459-287) edges while UA went 2-1 SU/ATS blowing an expected win at NM despite

   being a 10’ pt fav (36-20 avg score, outgained tms 390-258). Both played 4 bowl tms with BYU going 2-2

   SU (1-3 ATS) outgaining them 437-412 while the Wildcats went just 1-3 SU (2-2 ATS) being outgained

   421-354. The Cougs have 9 Sr starters & 19 upperclassmen while UA has 8 Sr’s & 16 upperclassmen.

   Both play on grass but BYU has a bit of an adv on the turf at Sam Boyd Stadium (home of UNLV) as they

   have played here 5x’s in the L/3Y. Both have struggled on the road TY going a comb 2-9 ATS.

   QB Tuitama holds virtually every UA passing rec’d as they switched over to the TT spread off LY

   when former Red Raider OC Dykes accepted the same pos at UA. Fighting off inj’s during his first 2

   yrs, Tuitama has failed to miss a start in the L/2Y flourishing as the leader of the off. RB Grigsby began

   the yr as the only legitimate threat out of the backfield, however, his tendency to fmbl all’d true frosh

   Antolin to emerge as more than just a KR as he posted a huge game in a key victory vs Cal. The WR/

   TE combo of Thomas & Gronkowski is arguably the most dangerous in the P10 despite the fact that

   Gronkowski missed the beginning of the yr due to an illness. The Wildcats OL avg 6’5” 313 & is led

   by outstanding 1st Tm P10 LT Britton who has helped pave the way for 164 ypg (4.1) while they have

   all’d 27 sks (7.2%). Overall UA ranks as our #16 off. The DL avg 6’3” 270 all’g 132 ypg (4.2) on the ssn

   while the D collected 22 sks (6.1%). The LB corps is led by Ronnie Palmer who is the heart & soul of

   the UA D but they will be w/o #3 tklr Lewis who is susp here. The Wildcats lost both of their CB’s LY to

   the NFL but have seen LY’s bkups step up strongly led by Devin Ross. Overall the secondary has our

   #14 pass eff def ranking all’g 170 ypg (55%) with an 11-15 ratio while the D ranks #28. The Cats have

   a solid ST unit ranking (#10 overall) led by the explosive ret’s of 1st Tm P10 PR Thomas.

   All the early talk was about BYU busting the BCS until they were thrashed by TCU. They were still

   in the running for a MWC Title until a 48-24 loss to Utah. BYU is led by Hall, whose 69.6 comp % ranks

   #1 among BYU’s legendary QB’s. He holds the single-ssn MWC rec’d for TD passes & has thrown one

   in 22 of his 25 career gms. His fav target is WR Collie, who has gone over the 100 rec yd mark in 10

   str gms, doubling the old MWC rec’d. He is BYU’s all-time leading rec and ranks #1 in the NCAA in rec

   ypg. Hall’s other fav target is his bro-in-law, Pitta. The Mackey Semi-Finalist has made huge grabs, many

   coming in the 2H after tm’s adjusted to Collie. He was limited in the last gm (MCL) but should be 100%

   here. The OL avg 6’6” 326 with 4 Sr’s and placed 2 on the 1st Tm MWC (1 on 2nd). They have paved

   the way for 136 ypg rush (4.2) while all’g 18 sks (4.0%) TY. BYU has our #15 offense. The D comes

   in at #71. They have forced 27 TO’s TY, conv 18 into pts. The DL is led by MWC sack record-holder

   Jorgensen, who has 21.5 in his career but many tms focused on him TY and he has just 5. The DL has

   recorded 11.5 (55%) of the tm’s 21 sks. The young secondary has been burned giving up some big

   plays TY but CB Johnson could return here (tm’s #4 tklr) after missing the L/3. BYU ranks #91 in our

   pass eff D all’g 207 ypg (60%) with a 15-9 ratio. The ST’s unit is #19 in our rankings. BYU avg just 3.8

   ypr on PR (gives up 7.7) but 25.2 on KR (22.0 all’d). They have not had a KR TD in 130 consec gms.

   BYU has circled Pac-10 gms winning 5 of 6, including beating Washington and UCLA this year. They are,

   however, disappointed to be here as their entire season hinged around a BCS run. Arizona snapped a 10

   year non-bowl streak and is thrilled to make this Las Vegas Bowl appearance. BYU finished the season avg

   38 ppg the L/5 while Arizona held 3 of their L/5 opp’s to 19 pts or less. The teams played similar strengths

   of schedule but keep in mind MWC teams were 6-1 SU vs Pac-10 TY giving a slight edge to BYU.

   FORECAST: BYU BY 1

   RATING: 2* BYU

   NEW ORLEANS BOWL

   This is Troy’s first outright SBC Title, 2nd trip to New Orleans Bowl and 3rd bowl bid in 5 yrs. Larry

   Blakeney has been Troy’s HC for 18 yrs taking them to the ‘04 Silicon Valley Classic (1st school bowl)

   losing 34-21(-3) to N Illinois as they were outgained 359-292. In ‘06, Troy captured their 1st SBC Title

   (shared w/MT) and won their 1st bowl gm in schl history, a decisive 41-17 victory over Rice here. Troy

   played 6 bowl elig tms TY, incl 3 BCS foes, and went 3-3 SU (5-1 ATS). They outscored their opp’s 30-25

   while outgaining them 378-368. Troy was outgaining Ohio St at half in their 28-10 loss, got blown out

   by Okla St 55-24 (outgained only 255-231 at half) and led LSU 31-3 in 3Q before losing 40-31. SMiss

   began the ssn 2-6 under new HC Fedora (OC at OKSt LY) appearing as though they would miss a bowl

   for the 1st time S/’01. They regrouped and finished the ssn on a 4 gm SU/ATS win streak to get here and

   are now looking to secure their 15th winning ssn in a row (#4 in NCAA). This is the 1st bowl as a HC for

   Fedora. LY, the Eagles were unable to send former HC Bower out with a victory, as they lost 31-21 (+11)

   to Cincy in the Papajohns.com Bowl. SM played 6 bowl elig tms and went 3-3 SU/ATS, outscoring their

   opps 29-26 and outgaining them 439-425. Both tms won & covered vs ULL and Ark St. Troy outscored

   them 42-6 and outgained them 399-294, while SM outscored them 39-23 and outgained them 491-421.

   Both tms play on turf with Troy going 5-4 ATS and SM finishing 5-5 ATS. Troy has 10 Sr’s among their

   19 upperclassmen starters while SM has 5 Sr’s among their 12 upperclassmen starters. Troy went 5-2

   ATS away from home, incl 3-1 as a fav. SM went 4-2 ATS on the road, incl 2-1 as a dog.

   Troy got here by beating Ark St 35-9 in their last gm of the ssn. This is their 3rd yr in the spread off and

   they have our #50 off. They are led by QB Brown, as starting QB Hampton went down with an inj vs FAU.

   WR Jernigan leads the WR’s while 3 others have 20+ catches. The RB’s are led by Harris who had four 100

   yd gms (3 in L/5). He was also #5 in rec yds. The OL avg 6’2” 299 with 2 Sr’s and only all’d 9 sks (1.9%)

   while opening holes for 175 ypg (5.1) on the yr. The DL, which had 30.5 of the tm’s 38 sks, lost DE Mainor

   after gm 3 (knee). They are allowing 139 ypg (3.5). The LB corps may be the best in the SBC (3 of top 4

   tklrs) as they have 10 of the 21 int. The secondary has 9 int led by FS Martin. Troy has our #56 D all’g 21

   ppg and 319 ypg. They have the #22 pass eff D all’g 180 ypg (55%) with a 16-21 ratio. Troy has our #25

   ST unit. K Glusman has hit 7-11 from 40+ with a long of 48 and Troy ranks #40 in the NCAA in net punting

   (36.3), which is #1 in SBC. Troy avg 21.3 on KR but gives up 18.0. On PR, they avg 9.6 and give up 2.5.

   Fedora’s spread offense (our #35) produced a schl rec’d 5,214 yds while avg 31 ppg displaying

   outstanding balance avg 196 yds on the ground and 238 through the air. RFr QB Davis became the

   1st Eagles’ Fr to start an opener S/’91 setting a schl rec’d for ttl off (3323). He also set schl Fr records

   for pass yds and TD passes, surpassing Brett Favre’s mark of 15 TD in ’87. His fav target is True Frosh

   Brown as they hooked for a schl rec’d 97 yd TD pass vs EC. Brown led all Fr with 96.1 ypg and his

   height (6’6”) causes constant matchup problems for opposing DB’s. TE Nelson provides a big target

   that can threaten the middle of the field. RB Fletcher led CUSA in rushing avg 112 ypg (6.0), behind

   an OL that avg’s 6’4” 293. The D has been the key to the Eagles’ turnaround all’g just 8.8 ppg the L/4

   after yielding 31 ppg the first 8. SM has our #73 D with LY’s CUSA Def POY LB McGrath leading the

   tm in tkls by a large margin (53). The DL avg’s 6’3” 267 and is all’g 4.4 ypc struggling to get pressure

   on the QB, but has 13 of the tms 16 sks. SM is #52 in our pass eff D rankings all’g 224 ypg (58%) with

   a 24-17 ratio. They have our #93 ST’s and have struggled in the kicking game hitting just 10-19 FG’s

   (2-6 over 40) and were last in CUSA in net punting (31..

   HC Fedora has done an exceptional job changing the mentality of Southern Miss to a high-energy

   team. They had a midseason stretch in which they lost 5 straight SU/ATS but rebounded to win and

   cover the L/4 outscoring their foes by an avg of 34-9. Troy took care of business by taking the SBC

   Title and reaching the 8 win mark for a third straight season. This year’s performance was impressive

   as they played toe-to-toe at Ohio St and only trailed 14-10 at half while outplaying LSU at Death Valley

   and leading 31-3 in the 2H. We’ll side with this Troy team that has the DL to pressure the SM QB and

   the secondary to slow him down.

   FORECAST: TROY BY 6 RATING:

   1* TROY

   POINSETTIA BOWL

   This is TCU’s 10th bowl in 11 years & they are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS (4-0-1 L/5) under HC Patterson

   while this is BSU’s 9th bid in 10 yrs (5-3 SU/ATS) and they are 1-1 SU/ATS under Petersen. #19 TCU’s

   last bowl loss was 34-31 (+11) to #18 Boise in the inaugural Ft Worth Bowl (‘03), the schools’ only

   previous matchup. It is the only Dec bowl that matches 2 DD win teams and the combined rankings

   of the 2 teams are the highest among non-BCS bowls (5th overall). TCU led Utah for over 59 mins

   before allowing a TD pass which cost them the MWC Title. Ironically, that Utes win cost Boise a

   coveted BCS bid but at least the Broncos get a quality opp here. The Frogs have lost to teams with a

   combined 24-1 record (Oklahoma & Utah) while BSU won their 6th WAC Title (2nd under Petersen)

   in the L/7Y and went undefeated for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Frogs faced 5 bowl-caliber tms

   & went 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS outscoring those opp 22-14 & outgaining them 392-274. BSU faced 8

   bowl-elig tms & went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS outscoring them by 20 ppg & outgaining them by 97 ypg.

   TCU has 17 upperclassmen starters including 13 Sr’s while BSU has 13 upperclassmen & 11 Sr’s.

   TCU plays on a grass HF while the Broncos are 3-0 ATS the L/2Y on the real stuff. TCU went 9-2

   ATS as a fav while BSU went 3-1 SU/ATS as a dog including the bowls L/3Y. Not surprisingly BCS

   schools have courted both HC’s but both have remained loyal for now.

   TCU has our #31 off and is led by dual threat QB Dalton who made 10 starts (missed 2 gms w/

   inj) & accounted for 19 ttl TD’s (11 pass, 8 rush). Dalton’s bkup, Jackson, is the tm’s #3 rusher in a

   limited role. Leading WR Young has more than 3x the ttl rec yds and twice the TD’s of any other rec

   on the tm & was named 2nd Tm MWC. TCU’s OL avg 6’4” 311 with 3 Sr starters. They pave the way

   for 216 ypg rush (4.4) while all’g 18 sks (5.4%). TCU is #2 in our D rankings & has simply dominated

   all ssn. The Horned Frogs have all’d 7+ pts in just 5 gms & surrendered just 11 ppg (#2 NCAA). The

   DL avg 6’2” 269 with 3 Sr’s & the cohesive unit has started every game. They are #1 in the NCAA

   all’g just 49 ypg rush (1.7) which is 25 ypg better than any other team in the nation! The D is led

   by AA & MWC D POY (1st D POY at TCU S/’02) Jerry Hughes who leads the nation in sks with 14.

   TCU has the #4 pass eff D all’g just 166 ypg (49%) with an 8-14 ratio. The ST’s unit (#18) avg 27.0

   ypr on KR & 11.9 ypr on PR. Ret specialist Kerley is the 4th consec 1st Tm MWC RS for TCU. The

   Horned Frogs give up an avg of 19.0 on KR & 7.7 on PR & they have also all’d 3 blk’d K’s TY.

   Kellen Moore became the first frosh to start at QB in BSU history & turned in a fantastic year en

   route to earning ‘08 WAC Frosh of the Year honors. Moore led the WAC in pass eff, comp % & TD

   passes & was 2nd in pass ypg & ttl off. BSU’s OL avg 6’3” 285 with 2 Sr’s & is anchored by 1st Tm

   WAC LT Woodruff who was the only OL to start every game TY. While RB Johnson recorded his

   fewest total rushing yds since his frosh ssn (‘05), he was still an integral part of the Broncos’ offense

   as he led BSU in rushing & TD’s & is the nation’s active leader in career rush TD’s with 57. WR

   Childs earned 1st Tm WAC honors & is #4 in the WAC in rec per game & rec ypg, while WR Pettis

   nabbed 2nd Tm WAC honors. BSU has our #20 off & our #14 D with 3 players (DE Winterswyk, S

   Powers & CB Wilson) named 1st Tm WAC. BSU’s DL avg 6’3” 260 with 3 Sr’s & is all’g just 105 ypg

   rush (3.0) while posting 22 of the team’s 34 sks. Boise all’d just 12.3 ppg (#3 NCAA) & held 8 foes to

   10 or less pts (6 to 7 or less). BSU just missed breaking the WAC record for fewest pts all’d in conf

   play (89) with 94 with the D only all’g 67 of those pts. BSU has our #3 ST unit. K/P Brotzman has

   range beyond 50 yds & has made all 115 of his PAT’s (128 is WAC record). He is also a rugby-style

   P. Wilson (2nd Tm WAC on ST) is a huge threat on PR’s with his NCAA-leading 3 PR TD’s.

   TCU has been the poster child for defensive teams and they’ve held every opp to 14 pts or less

   except for Oklahoma, which they held to a season-low 35. Boise, meanwhile, has solid D numbers

   but their WAC sk’d is much lighter. Boise rates as a slightly better offensive tm having avg’d 49 ppg

   the L/5 but a closer look shows that they’ve only played 1 D rated in the NCAA’s top half. Expect the

   Horned Frogs to shut down another bowl foe as they’ve allowed a total of 20 pts the L/2 bowl gms.

   FORECAST: TCU BY 13

   RATING: 3* TCU

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:19pm
9. 0 likes

   HAWAII BOWL

   This is the 3rd meeting with ND winning both SU (0-2 ATS) incl a 1 pt win over UH as a 28 pt AD in the

   ‘97 finale. Bowl organizers were thrilled to invite the Irish after they slid down the Big East’s bowl pecking

   order while HC Weis is happy to give his young tm extra practice while doing a little recruiting on the Islands.

   ND has played in a bowl in Hawaii before, a 27-20 loss to SMU in the Aloha Bowl in ‘84. The Irish have

   lost an NCAA record 9 straight bowls (last win in ‘93 Cotton) & are 1-8 ATS. Hawaii is making its 9th bowl

   appearance overall & is playing in its 6th bowl gm in the L/7Y. The Warriors are 5-3 SU & 4-4 ATS all-time

   in bowls. This will mark the 7th time UH will play a bowl at home where it is 4-2 SU & 3-3 ATS. The Warriors

   played 8 bowl-elig tms TY going 3-5 SU & 5-3 ATS (5-0 ATS L/5) & were outscored by 11 ppg & outgained

   by 78 ypg. The Irish went 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS vs bowl tms getting outscored 27-16 & outgained 330-306 with

   the TO margin at -13. This is HC McMackin’s 1st bowl at UH while Weis is 0-2 SU/ATS getting outscored

   75-34 in 2 BCS gms vs Top 5 tms (Ohio St & LSU). The Irish are 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS on the road TY with the

   SU wins vs 0-12 Wash & vs Navy (neutral field) while UH was 5-2 SU & 4-3 ATS here in Aloha Stadium.

   ND went 2-3 ATS as a dog & 2-1 ATS on turf while UH plays its HG’s on turf. UH has 15 Sr starters & 21

   upperclassmen starters while ND has 8 Sr’s among 13 upperclassmen starters.

   After a ssn of historical lows in ‘07 the Irish were expected to be one of the nation’s most improved tms

   in ‘08. ND started out with great promise at 4-1 but TO’s & youthful inexperience derailed the season. QB

   Clausen seemed to lose confidence as the year wore on as at midseason his numbers were comparable

   to Brady Quinn’s 2006 stats. The L/4, however, he had just a 2-8 ratio as a stagnant running gm (#98

   NCAA) provided little relief. An injury to record setting frosh WR Floyd also allowed teams to double team

   the Irish’s best big play threat Tate. ND was down to 2 true Fr TE’s with Rudolph being forced to take

   nearly every snap. The OL was vastly improved in pass blocking as they cut their sacks allowed from an

   NCAA worst 58 to a more reasonable 20 (4.8%) and the off finished #56 in our rankings. The defense is

   #34 led by the S duo of McCarthy & Bruton who finished as the team’s #1 & #2 tacklers. The Irish play

   a base 3-4 with NT Williams clogging the middle. The staff created a S/LB hybrid role to get the athletic

   Harrison Smith onto the field & he led the Irish with 8.5 tfl. ND is #28 in our pass eff D rankings & #51 in

   ST’s with K being a problem for most of the ssn as Walker started the yr 1-7.

   UH struggled right out of the gate TY losing 3 of its first 4 gms with many question marks. The Warriors

   went through a QB shuffle that extended to the end of Oct before finally settling on Alexander. UH stood

   3-4 on the yr when Alexander came in off the bench to start the 2H vs Nev & McMackin retained him as

   the starter for the rest of the year to finally give the offense some much-needed stability & chemistry. UH’s

   OL avg 6’2” 299 with 3 Sr’s & is led by 1st Tm WAC C Estes. McMackin stated UH would make a concerted

   effort to run the ball more TY, & they did, but the increase in production was marginal. UH’s leading rusher

   Libre is avg just 36 ypg. Converted RB-turned-WR Pilares was slated to play in the slot TY but he’s been

   shuffled between WR & RB but does give UH a multi-threat out of the backfield. The Warriors have a pair

   of WR’s in Washington (2nd Tm WAC) & Salas who form a formidable rec corps with Bain & Lane. UH’s

   biggest downfall TY has been its inability to protect the ball as the Warriors are #117 in the NCAA in TO’s

   lost with 35 (21 int, 14 fmbl). UH boasts an experienced def as all 11 starters are either Jr’s (2) or Sr’s (9).

   The DL avg 6’3” 286 with 3 Sr’s & has recorded 23 of the Warriors’ 34 sks (68%). UH’s D is highlighted by

   a pair of 1st Tm WAC LB’s in Elimimian & Leonard who form the WAC’s top LB duo (193 tkls combined).

   Elimimian was named the ‘08 WAC co-Def POY and is the WAC’s leading active tackler (425). UH’s #43

   pass D is highlighted by 1st Tm WAC DB Mouton and DB’s Monteilh & Thomas have combined for 8 int.

   In his first 3 ssn, PK Kelly connected on 71% of his FG att. TY, however, he’s struggled with his accuracy

   as he’s missed 6 of his L/8 attempts over the L/5 gms. UH finished a poor #114 in our ST’s rankings.

   Notre Dame makes this trip on Christmas Eve after improving from its 3-9 record LY. The 6-6 performance

   all’d Charlie Weis to keep his job but no team has more pressure to get a bowl win. The Irish have dropped 9

   straight bowls and failed to cover the L/7 and a loss here will give them a losing record. Hawaii went thru a

   QB shuffle TY starting 3 diff QB’s before settling on Alexander but the bulk of his stats were against inferior

   defenses as 3 of the L/5 games were vs #107 NMSt, #119 Idaho and #111 Washington St. We see value

   here with the Irish being an underdog as the difference in talent level will be obvious.

   FORECAST: NOTRE DAME BY 10

   RATING: 4* NOTRE DAME

   MOTOR CITY BOWL

   This is FAU’s 2nd bowl in as many yrs as they just started playing IA ball in ‘04 becoming the

   fastest start-up program to earn a bowl berth. HC Schnellenberger took over the program in ‘01 when

   they didn’t have a football team. He is 5-0 SU & ATS in bowls, including LY’s 44-27 win over Memphis

   in the New Orleans Bowl. He also won a Nat’l Title w/Miami in ‘83. FAU played 6 bowl-caliber tms

   going 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS being outgained 428-323 & outscored 32-14. CM is appearing in their 3rd

   straight Motor City Bowl, but not as the MAC Champ for the 1st time. As the MAC Titles are held at

   Ford Field, this will be CM’s 5th gm here in the L/3Y. CM should have a big fan edge as they have a

   short 2.5 hr drive & have played before over an avg of 57,000 the L/2Y including over 54,000 the last

   time they played a SBC member. In those 4 previous gms, CM is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS. Their only loss

   came vs Purdue, 51-48 (+7’) in LY’s bowl, which was HC Jones 1st bowl game. In the ‘06 bowl they

   defeated SBC member MT, 31-14 (-8). CM played 5 bowl caliber teams going 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS &

   despite a 56-17 loss to UGA, they were only outscored by an avg 34-28 & outgained 437-418. These

   2 teams have never met & did not face any common opp’s TY. FAU has 10 seniors among their 17

   upperclassman starters compared to CM which has 9 among their 18 upperclassman.

   FAU came into the ssn with 18 returning starters but lost 2 prior to the opener (TE Harmon-inj & DT

   Mertilus-acad) before losing RT Rizzo after 8 gms (torn ACL). They started off the ssn 1-5 before winning 5

   of their L/6 avg 35.6 ppg. They are led by QB Smith (6’5” 212) who was a 2x SBC POW TY (2 of L/3 gms).

   Smith struggled in 1st 4 gms due to inj but improved over L/8 avg 256 ypg (57%) with an 18-9 ratio while going

   5-3 to become bowl-elig. FAU had 4 players with 25+ catches with 2 of them being TE’s Grant & Housler.

   The Owls’ run gm improved from LY’s 3.5 ypc to 4.5. RB Pierre led the team & had four 100+ yds

   gms. The OL avg 6’2” 280 with 2 Sr starters. They all’d 12 sks (2.9%) & opened holes for 141 ypg

   (4.5). They finished with our #71 off. The D, which had just 12 sks (#112 NCAA) all’d 183 rush ypg

   (4.4) to rank #98 in the NCAA. The LB’s are led by Joseph who is #2 tklr in the NCAA & FAU went

   from having 19 int LY to 12 TY with CB Small leading with four. The Owls rank #95 in our pass eff

   D (219 ypg, 63%, 21-12 ratio) & overall have our #94 ranked D all’g 29 ppg & 402 ypg. FAU is #111

   (last in SBC) in net punting (31.7). They avg 19.8 on KR but give up 17.6. On PR, FAU avg 8.3 &

   allows 5.9 and they finished a dismal #108 in our rankings.

   CM ended the reg ssn with 2 straight conf losses & missed what would have been their 3rd

   straight MAC Champ gm after dominating the conf the previous 2 yrs (15-2 in MAC play). CM has

   our #33 off & is avg 30 ppg & 427 ypg. The offense is led by QB LeFevour (2nd Tm MAC) who led

   the MAC in ttl off (307 ypg) & is CM’s top rusher (#10 MAC). CM’s receiving corps is led by two 1st

   Tm MAC WR’s in Brown (#5 MAC rec ypg) and Anderson (#4). The OL avg 6’4” 293 & is led by Sr’s

   LT Hartline (1st Tm MAC) & RT Wojt (2nd Tm MAC). They have paved the way for 3.6 ypc but have

   all’d 29 sks (6.6%) despite having a mobile QB. CM has our #106 D & is all’g 31 ppg & 424 ypg but

   led the MAC in rush D (139 ypg). The DL is led by 1st Tm MAC DE Zombo, who led the MAC in tfl

   & was #2 in sks & 3rd Tm MAC DT Murnane. The DL avg 6’3” 256 & accounted for 28 of their conf

   leading 31 sks but did allow 4.2 ypc. The LB corps is led by 1st Tm MAC MLB Bellore, who was the

   MAC’s leading tklr. Their secondary (#107) was the weak spot allowing 286 ypg (64%) & a poor 23-8

   ratio. The Sp Tms are led by 2nd Tm MAC K Aguila & MAC ST’s POY Brown, who led the nation with

   a 20.7 PR avg. They did allow 22.0 ypr on KR & 12.3 ypr on PR’s.

   CM had a disappointing finish to the year as they were 8-2 when they faced off against Ball St for

   the MAC Title. After that loss they also dropped a shoot out to EM. FAU finished their season winning

   5 of 6 but needed a 14 pt comeback to beat FIU in OT & become bowl elig. Even on Selection Sunday

   they were unsure if they would get a bowl bid. Rusty Smith struggled early with an inj but his offensive

   production improved as the Owls avg’d 39 ppg the L/4. Both offenses & defenses are very close so

   we’ll take the pts & the Future Hall of Fame Coach who has a Nat’l Champ under his belt.

   FORECAST: FLORIDA ATLANTIC BY 1

   RATING: 2* FAU

   MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL

   This is just the 2nd meeting between NC & WV. Their only other meeting came in the ‘97 Gator Bowl, a

   20-13 UNC victory (-6’). NC is bowl elig for the 1st time S/’04 when they played in the Continental Tire Bowl

   (now Meineke Car Care) & WV appeared in the inaugural gm in ‘02 (both lost). The Heels finished the reg

   ssn with 8 wins which is the most S/’97 (10). NC is 12-13 SU all-time in bowls & 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS L/6. HC

   Davis is 4-0 SU & ATS in bowls. Stewart in his 1st bowl as interim HC defeated OK LY 48-28 (+7). WV is off

   a disappointing ssn after posting three consec 11 win ssns & 5 consec Jan 1st bowls. They lost 3 gms by a

   combined 10 pts and dropped from the AP poll for the 1st time since ‘05. WV OC Mullen is familiar with NC

   having coached at WF for 7 yrs. NC plays all of their HG’s on grass while WV is 7-4 SU & 5-6 ATS L3Y on

   grass. NC has 11 Sr’s (T-3rd fewest in NCAA) incl 5 starters among 13 total upperclassmen. WV has 8 Sr

   starters among 12 upperclassmen. NC played 9 bowl teams & went 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS, outscoring them 28-20

   but was outgained 364-302. WV has played 7 bowl tms outscoring them 19-18 but was outgained 317-303.

   These 2 faced 2 common opp’s TY each defeating both Rutgers & Conn, NC by 29 ppg & WV by 15 ppg.

   This bowl has avg’d 60,000 fans with only 2 sellouts in 6Y. NC will have the crowd edge but WV fans have

   travelled well in the past & will make the trip. WV is 2-3 SU & ATS on the road TY & NC is 3-2 SU & ATS.

   WV has our #35 off avg 24 ppg & 353 ypg. After huge bowl win as interim coach Stewart brought in OC

   Mullen to “tweak” the prolific WV run off into a balanced attack. WV opened by throwing 5 TD’s vs Villanova

   & each week looked like a different offense. The off went from avg 40 ppg & 297 (6.2) ypg rush in ‘07, to avg

   24 ppg & 217 (5.5) ypg rush. QB White broke Mizzou QB Brad Smith’s record & became the all-time leader

   in rushing by a QB & the 1st player BE to reach 10,000 career yds. Devine stepped into big shoes replacing

   NFL’er Slaton & rushed for 102 ypg (6.4). The WR corps was led by playmaker Sanders. The OL has 133 car

   sts & features 3 Sr’s that only all’d 14 sks led by All-BE selections Stanchek & Dent who missed L/4 to inj

   (CS). While the offense searched for its identity, the D kept WV in games. DC Casteel earned his paycheck

   with just 4 starters ret’g & a huge loss in MLB Williams who couldn’t recover from surg to both shoulders.

   WV has our #25 def allowing 16 ppg & 326 ypg. The DL allowed 135 rush ypg (3.6) & has 12 of the tm’s 24

   sks. The LB’s are led by All-BE LB Ivy & Thomas who combined for 15 tfl. The Mountaineers have our #24

   pass D, all’g 191 ypg (56%) with an 8-16 ratio. They are led by All BE CB Lankster (PS#1JC!!) & former WR

   turned CB Hogan who took over & started L/9 and they combined for 6 int. WV has our #37 ST’s ranking led

   by All-BE P/K McAffee who hit 84% of his FG’s & avg 44.7 on punts. WV ranks #117 in KR def all’g 27.7.

   NC has trailed in 6 of their 8 wins TY incl 3x’s rallying back from deficits of at least 10 pts. In 3 of NC’s 4

   losses they gave up late scores incl leading VT 17-3 before losing QB TJ Yates (fractured ank) & surrendering

   17 pts. NC has dealt with countless injs TY, some to more high-profile players like LB Paschal (spinal

   inj), Yates & WR Tate (torn ACL) but the tm’s “resilience, diligence & determination” are what has allowed

   them to persevere. QB Yates in just his 2nd gm back from inj (missed 6) threw for 190 yds & 3 TD in the

   ssn finale. RB Draughn emerged as the starting TB after moving from S & had 110 yd in the ssn finale. WR

   Nicks became the first 1,000 yd rec in UNC history. WR Foster had knee surg but is expected to be ready

   here. NC’s OL avg 6’5” 307 allowing 3.6 ypc rush but has all’d 27 sks (9.2%). The unit is led by 2nd Tm ACC

   RT Reynolds & HM ACC RG Darity. The Heels have our #64 off & #44 def. The DL avg 6’4” 293 allowing 3.8

   ypc rush & the DL has 11 of the 18 sks (61%). DE’s Wilson & true Fr Quinn (PS#18DL), who is 1 yr removed

   from a brain tumor, will be counted on to contain QB White. NC has one of the best LB groups in the ACC

   but Paschal suffered a career ending spinal inj vs NCSt. Sturdivant is #1 tklr & Carter leads the nation with

   5 blk’d K (4 P, 1 FG). NC ranks 8th in the NCAA with 19 int & set a single ssn NC rec with 4 IR TD’s. NC has

   int’d at least 1 pass in 9 of 12 gms TY incl multiple int’s in 6. NC is #47 in our pass D rankings allowing 217

   ypg pass (60%). The secondary is led by S Goddard who is T-#1 in the NCAA w/7 int (1 IR TD) & CB Burney.

   NC has our #31 sp tms. NC avgs 10.9 on PR’s & 21.6 on KR’s. They allowed 9.2 on PR’s & 18.2 on KR’s.

   NC was picked to be one of our most improved tms TY & fought through 2 major injs to QB Yates &

   WR/sp tmr Tate to get to 8 wins. WV had BCS aspirations after LY’s Fiesta Bowl win & new HC Stewart

   experimented the entire season with more of a passing offense. This backfired & WV finished with just 8

   wins including dropping gms as a favorite vs EC, Colo, Cincy & Pitt. This is a bowl that could be decided

   by the 2 coaches & that advantage clearly goes to the Tar Heels under Butch Davis.

   FORECAST: N CAROLINA BY 8

   RATING: 1* N CAROLINA

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 19 2008 10:20pm
10. 0 likes

    CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL

    This is the 1st meeting between the schools. FSU fans are disappointed to be here as the Gator Bowl

    snubbed an FSU program that has aggressively sought to play regular season games in Jacksonville by

    selecting 7-5 Clemson over 8-4 FSU even though the Noles defeated the Tigers 41-27. FSU extended its bowl

    streak to 27 straight, a mark that leads the nation. This is both teams’ 1st appearance in this bowl although

    Wisconsin has played in the other Orlando bowl (Capital One) in ‘06 & ‘07 pulling upsets of SEC teams both

    years. This is the 5th year in a row that UW will spend the holidays in Florida and there has been talk of ‘bowl

    fatigue’ among their normally rabid fan base. The Noles hold an 8-2-1 record all-time (3-1-1 in bowls) vs current

    Big Ten opps. S/’95 UW is 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS vs ACC tms. FSU is 20-10-1 SU and 18-10-1 ATS in bowls

    under Bowden while Bielema is 1-1 SU & ATS. UW is 2-1 ATS on grass TY and 3-2 ATS on the road. FSU

    played of all its games on grass TY. The Noles went 4-3 ATS as a fav including their 39-21 win over Colorado

    in Jacksonville as our Sept 5H GOM Winner. Under Bielema, UW is 2-6 ATS as an AD including bowls. FSU

    has 6 senior starter and 16 upperclassmen while the Badgers have 10 seniors among 16 upperclassmen.

    At 3-0, #9 UW had BCS dreams leading Mich 19-0 at the half in Ann Arbor. They let the Wolves off the

    hook however and the next week Ohio St scored the game-winning TD with 1:08 left. With nothing left in the

    tank the Badgers collapsed 48-7 to Penn St in its worst loss S/’89 and HC Bielema decided a QB change was

    in order. Evridge was benched and Sherer guided the team to a 4-2 record down the stretch while minimizing

    mistakes (4 int in 6 gms). UW’s run game continued to be their strength as Hill and VHT rFr Clay were the

    league’s top duo. The offense relies on multiple TE sets and ‘07 Mackey finalist Beckum battled an injury early

    on before his season ended with a broken leg after just 6 games.The “other” TE Graham was 1st Tm Big Ten

    as the top WR Gilreath had just 30 rec. The OL is massive (6-6 319 avg) and rebounded from midseason

    injury problems (LT Carimi and RG Urbik missed 3 gms) for a 4.8 ypc while allowing 26 sks (8.2%). UW’s

    senior-laden (6 starters) D blew 3 games (Mich, OSU & Mich St) in the 2H due to untimely mental mistakes.

    Wisky has our #32 off and #39 def. The DL is led by DT Newkirk who had a tm leading 8 tfl. The LB’s are the

    tm’s top 3 tacklers with Sr’s Casillas and Levy earning HM Big Ten honors. The secondary is spearheaded

    by 1st Tm Big Ten CB Langford and is #27 in our pass eff defense rankings. Bielema is the ST’s coach and

    acknowledged that some changes need to be made in that area next year as the Badgers finished just #85.

    The ‘08 season marks the 32nd consec yr the Seminoles have posted a winning rec’d under Bowden.

    FSU started the season with several players susp for the 1st 3 gms but was actually 6-1 heading into Nov

    but lost 3 of their L/5. FSU has had some inconsistency with its pro-set offense. QB Ponder struggled vs

    Florida in the reg ssn finale and was replaced by Weatherford. HM ACC RB Smith is #2 in the ACC in scoring

    and is playing his final game at FSU with the bowl close to his hometown (Pahokee, 140 miles). With

    the QB position inconsistent TY, the WR’s did not have the season as expected. The Seminoles’ OL, which

    is one of the youngest in the nation in 2008, avg 6’4” 281 and avg 4.9 ypc rush and 24 sks (6.9%). FSU

    has our #28 offense and #24 defense. The defense is coming off its worst performance of the yr in the reg

    season finale. FSU could not stop QB Tim Tebow (who could?) or the Gators’ receivers and was pushed

    around the field. The smallish D-line avg 6’2” 263 and is all’g 3.7 ypc rush and 27.5 of the 36 sacks are by

    DL’s. The leader of this unit is 1st Tm ACC & Hendrick Finalist Brown (runner-up ACC Def POY) who ranks

    #3 in the NCAA in sks & tfl. The LB’s are the #1, #3 & #4 tklr’s led by Nicholson who is #30 in the NCAA in

    tfl. 2nd Tm ACC S Rolle (#2 tklr) is the 1st ACC player in 47 yrs to be a recipient of the Rhodes Scholarship.

    There is speculation DC Andrews may be thinking of retirement and has come under fire after bad

    performances against Florida, BC and GT. FSU has our #5 sp tms. 1st Tm ACC & Groza winner K Gano

    is #1 in the NCAA in FG & #1 in the ACC in scoring (#5 NCAA). KR Garvin is #1 NCAA in KR avg TY and

    has 69 career KR’s for 1,650 total yards, just 53 yards shy of topping the all-time record at FSU.

    Wisconsin’s season did not go as expected as they totaled 7 wins none of which were vs BCS teams with more

    than 7 wins. FSU survived their early season susp’s by playing a pair of IAA teams and the young offense improved

    throughout the season and avg’d 32 ppg prior to the Florida loss. FSU is loaded with NFL caliber players and their

    main goal will be to shut down the one dimensional Wisky run game. Versus the top 3 quality D’s they faced this year

    the Badgers scored just 40 ttl pts against Ohio St, Penn St & Iowa. As you can see by the checklist FSU dominates

    almost every category and the speedy D will disrupt inexperienced QB Sherer into making mistakes.

    FORECAST: FLORIDA ST BY 17

    RATING: 4* FLORIDA ST

    EMERALD BOWL

    First Emerald Bowl trip for both prog’s & the 4th all-time meeting (First S/’90, UM leads series 2-1). Cal is

    bowl-eligible for a schl rec’d 7th consec ssn & will attend a schl rec’d 6th str bowl gm here as HC Tedford is

    4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in postseason appearances. UM is 15-8 in bowls S/‘81 and 8-2 recently incl their non-cover

    win vs Nevada 21-20 in the MPC Computer Bowl however this marks HC Shannon’s 1st appearance as

    HC (2nd yr with Canes). Miami is 13-5 all-time vs tms from the state of CA and is 4-3 all-time playing inside

    the Golden State. The last time UM played inside CA was ‘01 when they won the National Championship

    in the Rose Bowl. While these schools didn’t play a similar opponent in ‘08, Cal went 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) vs

    bowl teams being outgained by a 356-349 clip while Miami went just 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) & was outgained

    by a 345-290 mark. Cal is just across the bridge from AT&T Park and will obviously have the fan edge. The

    Golden Bears have 7 Sr starters among 15 upperclassmen & the Hurricanes have 6 starters in their final

    year (23 Sr’s on the UM roster) with 12 upperclassmen total. UM is 10-7 as an AD & 6-3 at a neutral site.

    The Bears off ranks #21 despite HC Tedford going back & fourth with his starting QB’s. It appears

    that Riley has taken over for the time being with LY’s starter Longshore providing ample bkup capability

    here. RB Jahvid Best had a game breaking ssn for the Bears finishing #1 in the conf in rushing after

    his 311 rush yd (16.4) performance vs UW while also finishing 1st overall all in all-purp yds. Bkup RB

    Vereen, who could start for a handful of P10 schools, filled in valiantly for Best who missed time with

    elbow & ankle inj’s. With the departure of arguably the best WR corps that Cal ever had foll LY’s bowl,

    this position looked to be the biggest ?? for the upcoming ssn. TE Morrah & 6th yr Sr WR Young carried

    the team early on while JC trans & late signee Tucker came on during the 2H of the ssn to contribute.

    The OL avg 6’4” 307 & is led by AA C Mack who helped Cal rush for 184 ypg (5.4) while giving up 25

    sks (6.6%). Cal DC Gregory took adv of the abundance of talent at the LB position by switching from a

    4-3 to 3-4 TY and the Bears’ D finished #8. The DL avg 6’3” 290 & is led by DE Alualu who accompanied

    by the rest of the D, all’d 123 ypg rush (3.2) on the year. The LB corps (13.5 of 33 def sks, 41%) is led

    by the Sr threesome of Follett, Felder & Williams. Cal’s secondary had an amazing ssn finishing with

    our #2 pass eff def ranking all’g just 193 ypg (51%) with a 9-23 ratio (#3 in NCAA in int). Cal posted a

    #50 ST’s ranking led by the outstanding foot of 1st yr P Anger.

    Miami has a very young tm with 20 frosh or soph listed on 2 deep incl the K’s & P’s. The Canes lead

    the nation with 18 diff players scoring a TD TY. Miami has kept its opponents under 20 pts in four of its

    L/7 games. During the tm’s winning streak, the Hurricanes have outscored opponents by a 25-17 avg.

    The Canes have only had 2 players (C Shannon & LB Cook) start all 12 gms. UM runs a 2 QB system,

    rFR Robert Marve has been name ACC Rookie POW 2x’s and true Fr Jacory Harris 3x’s TY. RB Javarris

    James has been hampered TY with inj, missing 4 gms and RB Graig Cooper took over the top spot.

    WR Aldarius Johnson was susp for the ssn finale. The true Fr is Miami’s leading receiver and he will

    be avail here. WR & PR/KR Travis Benjamin could miss the bowl because of a high ankle sprain. The

    Canes OL avg 6’5” 311 with 2 Sr starters and is anchored by LT Jason Fox (6’7” 307, PS#22). Miami

    is avg 4.0 ypc and has all’d 25 sks (6.8%). UM has our #60 offense and #49 defense. The DL avg 6’2”

    278 lbs and is all’g 3.8 ypc rush. The DL has 20.5 of UM’s 31 sacks. UM did lose their top DL mid-ssn

    (Eric Moncur). True Fr LB Sean Spence was name Def Rookie POY finishing 3rd on the tm in tfl & led

    LB w/tfl. UM’s pass D is all’g 169 ypg (51%) but only has 4 int (#118 NCAA). Miami has our #46 sp

    tms. 2nd Tm ACC K & P Matt Bosher has scored more pts thru 12 games (89) than both K’s LY (67).

    UM is avg 19.4 ypr KR and 11.5 PR and all’g 17.3 KR and 9.2 PR. OC Patrick Nix was contacted by

    Auburn for the HC job.

    Miami limps into this bowl having lost 2 straight and failing to cover the L/3. They’ve won and covered

    just 1 gm vs a winning team and that was a defensive battle vs Wake Forest. California may have been

    known for a productive offense but their defense got them to 8 wins as they’ve held 5 of the L/6 opps

    to under 17 pts while covering 5 of the L/6. The Bears are much more balanced behind the rush attack

    of RB Best and look for them to bring the pressure vs a pair of young UM QB’s.

    FORECAST: MIAMI, FL/CAL UNDER 50’

    RATING: 2*MIAMI, FL/CAL UNDER 50’

    INDEPENDENCE BOWL

    LT leads this series 5-1 SU & 3-1 ATS but these two haven’t met S/’96 when LT topped NI 40-14 (-14’)

    in DeKalb. Tech is making its 1st bowl appearance S/’01 & only its 5th in schl hist. Of LT’s four previous

    bowls, 3 of them were right here in the Independence Bowl (‘77, ‘78, ‘90). The Bulldogs are 1-2-1 SU

    (1-1 ATS) in bowls. Tech’s last bowl appearance was in the ‘01 Humanitarian Bowl when they dropped a

    49-24 (+6’) decision to Clem. While this is just the Huskies’ 4th bowl, it’s their 3rd in the L/5Y. NI is 2-1 SU

    & 1-1 ATS in bowls but was manhandled by #25 TCU 37-7 in their last bowl (Poinsettia, ‘06), with their

    only pts coming on a blk’d punt. NI is 5-12 ATS as a favorite the L3Y (2-0 as AF TY) but LT is 3-7 as an

    AD under Dooley. While neither HC has coached a bowl game, NI HC Kill led his S Ill team to the 1-AA

    playoffs 5 times. LT went 2-4 SU & 3-3 ATS vs 6 bowl-elig tms TY being outscored by 9 ppg & outgained

    by 52 ypg. In 6 gms vs bowl-caliber tms TY, the Huskies went 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS and were outscored

    by an avg of 9 ppg & outgained by 37 ypg. NI has 11 senior starters/15 upperclassmen while LT has

    just 4 seniors/10 upperclassmen in starting roles. LT was targeted early by the Independence Bowl as a

    replacement for the SEC and Big 12 confs that didn’t have enough bowl elig teams to fill their slots. NI

    was a surprising pick for this bowl as most people thought the Sun Belt had a tie-in and that ULL would

    be a perfect candidate. A member of NI’s administration was a longtime member of the Independence

    Bowl comittee and they grabbed the bid despite not being known as a travelling team. Since LT is only

    68 miles away from Shreveport, they will have a huge crowd edge over NI.

    LT started TY off with a bang by claiming an outright upset over Miss St (22-14, +8) in the 1st ever

    visit by an SEC tm to Ruston. LT’s ssn was hanging in the balance as Tech was 3-4 heading into Nov, but

    they won 4 of their L/5 gms securing a bowl bid. GT transfer QB Bennett st’d the 1st 5 gms & avg 125 ypg

    but his low comp % & poor ratio forced Dooley to make a change. Jenkins was moved into the #1 spot &

    while he avg’d just 84 ypg, his comp % & ratio was an improvement & the off responded with him under C

    as Tech went 5-2 in gms with him as the starter. LT’s running gm is what makes their off go & they have a

    pair of All-WAC RB’s in Porter & Jackson as the duo has helped Tech avg 195 ypg on the ground. Porter, an

    ‘08 WAC pick, backed up Jackson, a 2x WAC choice (‘06 & ‘07), for the L2Y before having a breakout ssn

    TY. WR Livas leads the team with 157 all-purp ypg & was named 1st Tm WAC for his ST prowess. Tech’s

    OL avg 6’4” 298 with zero Sr starters & paved the way for 4.8 ypc while all’g 22 sks (7%). LT’s DL avg 6’3”

    260 with no Sr starters & is led by 1st Tm WAC DT Smith. The Bulldogs have our #86 D overall and their

    rush D is #2 in the WAC & #11 in the NCAA all’g just 100 ypg. DB Baker was #2 in the conf in tkls & #21 in

    the NCAA, but Tech’s #94 rated pass D is all’g 280 ypg (#116 in the NCAA). P Keagle earned 2nd Tm WAC

    honors & is a big key in Tech’s #6 ST rankings. PK Oestriecher missed 5 of his L/7 FGs.

    After an inj-plagued 2-10 ssn in ‘07, NI ret’d plenty of experience for new HC Kill to work with. They

    were 5-3 with their 3 losses by a comb 11 pts & incl 2 to BCS tms before losing 3 of the next 4. NI has

    our #94 off and was down to its 3rd-string QB at times but rFr Harnish played in 9 gms starting 8, incl the

    L/6. The Huskies saw their streak of 9 str yrs with a 1,000 yd rusher (#1 NCAA) come to an end as HC Kill

    likes to rotate players & had 4 RB & 1 QB with 200+ yds rush. The rec corps also felt the impact as the top

    WR had just 32 rec but 6 players had 12+ catches. The OL avg 6’6” 294 with 2 Sr’s & opened holes for 4.4

    ypc and all’d 16 sks (5.9%). Three OL were named 3rd Tm MAC in C Adamski, LG Onyebuagu, & RT Brost.

    The #46 D is the reason NI is here. After allowing 31 ppg & 434 ypg in ‘07, NI all’d just 18 ppg & 304 ypg.

    The cornerstone of the D is DE English, who became the 1st def player in MAC history to earn B2B Vern

    Smith Awards & is the Huskies’ career sk (31.5) & tfl (55) leader. The DL is allowing 4.2 ypc but has 17 of

    the tm’s 22 sks (77%). DE English & Bice (3rd Tm MAC) have a comb 13 sks on the yr. The LB corps is led

    by MLB McCarthy (3rd Tm MAC). The Huskies are the MAC’s #1 pass D with 3 Sr starters & are all’g just

    163 ypg (63%) with a 13-6 ratio. They have our #44 ST & are led by K Salerno who hit a schl rec’d tying 52

    yd FG vs BG. Another reason for the Huskies’ turnaround is 5 blk’d punts while allowing 0 blks.

    Call this the “Block Bowl” as these tms have comb for 9 blk’d P’s. NI is all’g just 18 ppg and has held

    8 of the L/10 opps to 16 or less. LT is all’g just 3.0 ypc rush and faces a rush oriented tm. Neither tm has

    explosive WR’s which allows the front 7’s to load the box and make this gm a battle in the trenches.

    FORECAST: N ILLINOIS/LA TECH UNDER 47

    RATING: 2*UNDER 47

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:20pm
11. 0 likes

    PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

    First meeting. The Papajohns.com Bowl features two of the NCAA’s hottest teams as they have

    combined to win the L/10 SU and the L/16 ATS. They had 2 common opp’s (NC & USF) with USF (-9’)

    defeating NCSt 41-10 but NCSt (+11) upsetting NC, 41-10. RU (-6) was crushed by NC 44-12 but they

    upset USF 49-16 (+8). LY NCSt came back to win L/4 after a 1-5 start, but lost its L/2 to miss out on the

    postseason. TY they started 2-6 before becoming the 1st team in ACC history to finish the ssn 4-0 in conf

    play after beginning at 0-4 and they have won 7 str ATS. This will be St’s 1st bowl gm under HC O’Brien

    in his 2nd yr with the Pack and he is 6-1 SU/ATS in bowl gms. NCSt last played in the ‘05 Meineke Car

    Care Bowl & shutout USF 14-0. This is the Wolfpack’s 24th bowl & the tm has posted an all-time mark of

    12-10-1. Rutgers ret’d 15 starters TY but suffered a huge loss in RB Rice & had to replace 7 asst coaches

    incl RB coach Ver Steeg. The Knights struggled early on as the off avg’d just 13 ppg vs IA opp’s. They

    became the BE’s hottest tm winning the L/9 ATS including L/6 SU & avg 46 ppg the L/5. They became

    the 7th tm in NCAA history to go to a bowl after a 1-5 start. The Knights are in their 4th straight bowl &

    5th in history. RU is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS under Schiano incl LY’s 52-30 win over Ball St in the International

    Bowl. NCSt plays on grass while the Knights are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS on grass the L/3Y. NCSt has faced

    10 bowl tms TY (4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS). RU played 8 bowl tms (3-5 SU/5-3 ATS) being outgained 367-347.

    NCSt has 13 upperclassmen starters incl 8 Sr’s while RU has 7 Sr’s among 14 upperclassmen. RU’s

    dominating stretch run has energized the fan base while the Pack fans should be hungry for a bowl after

    a 2 year hiatus and are just a day’s drive away. Both teams were 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in road gms TY.

    For the first time in ACC history (only 3rd time in history of coll FB) a conf has 10 bowl elig tms. With

    NCSt getting an at-large bid, all 6 Atlantic Div tms are bowling TY. State is playing the best football of

    anyone in the ACC, has an exciting rFr QB & a D that has suddenly figured out how to take the ball

    away. QB Russell Wilson has been impressive TY, throwing ONLY 1 int (226 passes w/o an int) & earned

    himself 1st Tm ACC & ACC Rookie of the Yr. TB Brown has 2,500 career rush yds. WR Spencer currently

    ranks 7th in the ACC in rec ypg. The OL avg 6’4” 308 with 2 Sr starters. State is avg only 3.6 ypc rush

    & has all’d 28 sks (7.9%). NCSt has our #64 off & #79 def. The DL avg 6’3” 273 & has 21 of State’s 23

    sks. The rush D is all’g 4.2 ypc. The line is led by HM ACC DE Willie Young who has a 680 lb squat. LB

    Nate Irving is one of, if not the best D player & has 4 int (NCSt LB rec). The pass D is allowing 243 ypg

    (#94 in the NCAA) but has 17 int (T-#13 NCAA). NCSt has our #41 sp tms. They are avg 23.2 on KR &

    8.3 on PR while all’g 22 KR & 5.1 PR.

    The Knights have our #28 ranked off avg 29 ppg & 395 ypg. QB Teel struggled early but caught fire in the

    2H breaking several RU records incl career pass TD’s. In the finale vs UL Teel broke the RU single gm rec’d

    with 447 yds & threw 7 TD’s tying a BE rec’d. Teel is avg 347 ypg (70%) & with a 20-5 ratio L/5 gms. The

    run game suffered early with Young inj’d in 1st gm. He ret’d but the ground game was still inconsistent avg

    129 ypg (4.0). Teel has a slew of rec weapons incl WR Britt (#2 in NCAA in rec ypg with 114), Underwood &

    perhaps the fastest player ever at RU in Brown. With all of the attention on the WR’s, TE’s Brock & Graves

    are capable options. Schiano mixed up the OL early on before finding the right combo. They comb for 76

    career sts avg 6’6” 302 & paved the way for 129 ypg (4.0) all’g 19 sks (5.0%). RU’s speedy D has our #52

    ranking all’g 19 ppg & 324 ypg. The smallish DL avg’s 6’4” 261 all’g 139 ypg (3. with 15 of the tm’s 28 sks

    (54%) and is led by Sr’s Tverdov (13 tfl) & Westerman (10.5 tfl). The LB corps features the top 2 tklrs in Sr

    Malast & Jr D’Imperio. The secondary has been much maligned TY. RU has our #111 pass eff defense all’g

    185 ypg (61%) with a 9-7 ratio. They are led by 2x All-BE FS Greene who turned down the NFL to return for

    his Sr ssn. RU has our #66 ST’s ranking & has found it difficult to replace LY’s K/P Ito.

    Two of the hottest teams matchup as RU comes into this game with 6 straight W’s and 9 straight covers

    while NCSt enters with 4 straight W’s and 7 straight covers. The QB’s have been just as hot as RU QB

    Teel finished with a 20-5 ratio run and NCSt QB Wilson with a 16-1 ratio. With the extra prep time we side

    with the O’Brien led squad that will have his young QB ready and RB Brown healthy. There’s no denying

    Rutgers is on an offensive roll but these two tms are evenly matched and the spread is too large.

    FORECAST: NC STATE (+) THE PTS RUTGERS BY 1

    RATING: 2* NC STATE

    ALAMO BOWL

    Ninth overall meeting (4-4) with the L/gm in ‘87. This is MU’s 1st Alamo Bowl while NU’s previous

    visit was not an enjoyable one losing to Neb 66-17 (+14’ in ‘00). MU also has painful memories of

    the Alamodome as they entered #1 prior to LY’s B12 Title gm before losing to OU 38-17 (+3). This

    is Cats’ first bowl under HC Fitzgerald & they have not won a bowl since the ‘48 Rose Bowl (0-5 SU,

    1-4 ATS). Under HC Pinkel, MU is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in bowls (4-1 ATS Pinkel all-time). NU is 4-1 ATS

    in domes while Mizzou will be playing in a dome for the 4th time the L2Y (2-1 SU/ATS). NU went 4-2

    as a dog TY and has played just 4 bowl tms (2-2 SU/ATS) getting outscored 29-19 (-8 ypg). MU was

    3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS vs bowl tms (+5 ppg, +36 ypg). The teams have a common foe in Illinois who is

    the rival of both schools. The Tigers won 52-42 (-9) in their opener while the Cats (+2) beat the Illini

    27-10 in its finale. Both are veteran squads with MU having 12 Sr starters and 16 upperclassmen

    while NU has 9 and 15. NU last played on Nov 22 while MU played on Dec 6, and does have the

    adv of a shorter trip (est 400 miles closer) & familar surroundings.

    The Cats’ 9-3 ssn is even more remarkable when you consider the fact that the tm’s strength coming

    into the ssn figured to be its Sr laden offense which featured RB Tyrell Sutton and QB CJ Bacher. Sutton

    broke his wrist and missed the final 4 gms of the ssn but is exp to return for the bowl. Bacher struggled

    (#87 NCAA pass eff) under new OC McCall and also missed 2 gms due to a hamstring inj. Bkup Mike

    Kafka ran for a Big Ten QB record 217 yds vs Minnesota which helped a run game that was down to

    its 3rd string TB by season’s end. The tm’s top 3 receivers are all Sr’s in Eric Peterman, Rasheed Ward

    and Ross Lane. The OL did a good job of pass blocking allowing just 17 sks (4.1%) but the run game

    was inconsistent with a 3.9 ypc. The defense carried the Cats as new DC Hankwitz’s unit improved in

    nearly every area. NU went from allowing 411 ypg and 31 ppg in ‘07 to 343 and 19 this year. The team

    had 33 sacks led by DE Wootton’s 9 which was a big upgrade from the 18 they had in ‘07. The injury

    problems extended to the defense as their top LB, MLB Arrington, was lost for the season due to a

    knee injury. The secondary is led by one of the Big Ten’s top S combos in leading tackler Brad Phillips

    and Brendan Smith who made the Cats’ play of the year by ret’g an int 48 yds for a TD with :12 left to

    beat Minnesota. The special teams are #63 in our rankings with reliable K Amondo Villarreal.

    Missouri has been rather unimpressive after a 5-0 start TY (4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS) only outscoring opp’s

    by 5 ppg (+ 13 ypg)! It also is a surprise that MU shared the B12 North Title with Neb after high expectations.

    They do have our #8 off avg 43 ppg & 497 ypg. QB Daniel was in the mix of a lot of Heisman talk,

    but that has gone away & he has thrown an int in 8 straight gms (2+ in 5 incl a lost fmbl the L/2). 2nd

    TM B12 RB Washington has three 100+ yd gms & when he rushed for 70+ TY, the Tigers were a perfect

    8-0! 1st TM B12 WR Maclin is a dangerous weapon not only catching passes, but on end-arounds &

    in the return units. He is avg an amazing 204 ttl ypg! Mackey winner TE Coffman has been slowed by

    a turf toe, but should be 100% here (MU’s all-time TE leader in rec/yds). The OL avg 6’5” 309 (2 Sr

    starter) paving the way for 5.3 all’g just 15 sks (2.9%). The def is ranked #53, all’g 28 ppg & 414 ypg,

    but has been torched for 100+ pts & 1,000+ yds the L/2 gms. The DL avg 6’3” 280 (3 Sr) accounting for

    20 (71%) of MU’s 28 sks. The Tigers have a solid front 7 led by 1st Tm B12 LB Weatherspoon & DL’s

    2nd TM B12 Sulak & 1st TM B12 Hood. S Moore (1st Tm B12) leads a secondary that is ranked #84 in

    our pass eff def allowing 285 ypg (64%) with a 26-13 ratio (keep in mind they have faced 6 opp’s who

    ranked #19 or higher in pass off, NU is #63). The Tigers have our #47 ST unit led by ex-diver 1st Tm

    B12 K Wolfert & KR/PR Maclin who is threat to take it to the house everytime he touches the ball.

    Mizzou had hoped for a better bowl coming into this season and are disappointed dropping their

    L/2 gms getting outscored by a 102-58 margin. Northwestern beat just 2 bowl teams this season

    and while a 9-3 record is commendable, they have been overly unimpressive. Missouri has the skill

    players to exploit the Wildcats defense and posses a defensive unit that has faced much better

    competition than this Northwestern offense can bring to the table.

    FORECAST: MISSOURI BY 21

    RATING: 3* MISSOURI

    HUMANITARIAN BOWL

    UN is making its 4th consec bowl appearance. The Wolf Pack is 3-5 SU & 1-3 ATS in bowl gms (1-4 SU

    & 1-2 ATS under HC Ault). UN is 1-7 SU & 3-5 ATS vs BCS tms in Ault’s latest stint as HC here. The Wolf

    Pack’s only previous meeting vs an ACC school was against Miami here in ‘05 in the MPC Computers Bowl

    in a game UN lost 21-20 (+3’). These two have not faced a common opp TY. This will be MD’s 6th bowl in 8

    yrs but it’s their 1st trip to Idaho. When MD was at its best TY, they could beat anyone, but there were just as

    many gms where they didn’t appear to be mentally ready to play & that explains the mediocre final record &

    the lack of enthusiasm among the bowls as they fell far down the ACC’s pecking order. The Terps have won

    3 of their L/4 bowl gms (Friedgen 3-2 SU/ATS in bowls). LY the Terps faced Oreg St in the Emerald Bowl &

    were outFD’d 24-11 & outgained 383-224, losing 21-14 (+5). MD has faced 8 bowl caliber tms & went 5-3

    SU & 4-4 ATS. UN has faced 7 bowl eligible tms and went 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. The Terps are 2-4 SU & 1-5

    ATS on art turf the L/3Y while UN plays their home gms on the fake stuff. MD has 30 Sr’s incl 10 Sr starters

    and 18 upperclassmen starters. UN has 15 Sr’s incl 7 starters with 11 total upperclassmen starters. This is

    only MD’s 2nd gm vs a WAC foe (‘90 Independence Bowl vs LT 34-34, -1).

    MD stepped it up vs top competition going 4-1 vs the Top 25 (incl 4 straight) but was just 3-4 vs other opp.

    In the reg ssn finale QB Turner threw for 360 yds but it wasn’t enough as MD lost to #20 BC which snapped

    a 6 gm win streak vs ranked foes. RB Scott is the #2 rusher in the ACC & was named 1st Tm ACC. WR

    Heyward-Bey missed the BC gm with an inj’d calf and is ? here. The OL avg 6’4” 313 & is led by 3 Sr’s, 1st

    Tm ACC C Williams & HM ACC’s OT Burley & OG Thomas, and is avg 4.1 ypc rush but has given up 26 sks

    (T-#76 NCAA). MD has our #50 off & #59 D. The DL avg 6’3” 288, all’g 3.9 ypg rush. The DL is anchored by

    HM ACC DT Navarre. Soph LB Wujciak has been impressive in his 1st ssn (inj’d LY) & is #2 in the ACC in tkls.

    The secondary is w/o its leader, Sr Barnes (ssn ending shldr inj 10/18) and they finished just #88 in pass eff

    D allowing 206 ypg (62%) with a 17-8 ratio. There will be some uncertainty on the D as DC Cosh left to be the

    DC & asst HC at K-St. OLB coach Al Seamonson was named the interim DC. The Terps have our #45 ST’s.

    P Baltz ranks 1st in the ACC in net & avg. KR Smith set the MD single-ssn rec’d for KR yds, breaking Josh

    Wilson’s mark of 847 (‘06). MD is #7 in NCAA in PR def all’g 4.1 ypr but is all’g a woeful 22.5 ypr on KR.

    When Ault devised the “Pistol” scheme, it was designed to generate a stronger run gm out of a passing

    set. While it was effective in its initial stages, it has rapidly developed & evolved over the L/3Y to become one

    of the nation’s most effective & explosive offensive formations. TY’s version is avg an NCAA best 6.2 ypc &

    features 4 1st Tm WAC selections in QB Kaepernick (WAC POY), RB Taua, WR Mitchell & C Green. They each

    help power the #2 rush off (291 ypg), #5 overall off (511 ypg) & #13 scoring off (39.4) in the NCAA behind

    a rugged OL avg 6’4” 290. Ault uses phrases like “Trigger Man” & “Nevada Back” to describe the type of QB

    & RB needed to fit his scheme best & he’s got one of each. Both dual threat QB Kaepernick & the versatile

    Taua inherited their positions due to inj’s & haven’t looked back since. Kaepernick, just the 5th player in NCAA

    history to rush for 1,000 yds & pass for 2,000 yds, is the epitome of the signal caller needed to run UN’s Pistol

    effectively with his read option ability, while Taua (#9 in NCAA) is the top ground threat. When the opposition

    keys in on the Wolf Pack’s run gm, UN can turn to 1st Tm WAC WR Mitchell for his ability to stretch the field

    as he is #2 in the WAC in rec ypg. UN’s DL avg 6’3” 265 & is highlighted by DE’s Basped & Moch who have

    combined for 19.5 sks TY. The unit has been stout vs the run all’g just 75 ypg (#3 in the NCAA) & only 2.6

    ypc. The Wolf Pack improved its run D from a yr ago and is markedly better as they shaved off 99 ypg from LY

    (174 ypg). The Wolf Pack’s Achillies’ heel TY has been its pass D which is all’g 321 ypg (#119 in the NCAA).

    UN’s ST unit has excelled behind 1st Tm WAC PK Jaekle & 2nd Tm WAC P Langley. Jaekle leads the WAC

    in scoring & Langley is #11 in the NCAA in punt avg but will miss the bowl (inj).

    Both teams are coming off bowl losses with Nevada getting shutout (tms 2-2 ATS if shutout in LY’s

    bowl). Maryland has had an up-and-down season playing to the level of its competition as there were 6

    upsets in their games TY. LY the Terps took on the NCAA’s #1 rush D (OSU) in the bowl and were held

    to 19 yds (0.. On paper they’ll face tough D front but that’s misleading as the Pack has faced a sked

    loaded with pass happy teams and allowed 185 rush yds to LT in the finale. Being a dog to a WAC team

    should get the Terps’ attention as they end their schizophrenic season on an up note.

    FORECAST: MARYLAND BY 6

    RATING: 2* MARYLAND

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:20pm
12. 0 likes

    TEXAS BOWL

    First meeting. The gm is technically at a neutral site, but Rice is playing in its hometown. Reliant

    Stadium is a grass surface, while both tms play HG’s on turf. Rice has played just 5 gms on grass the

    L/3Y going 1-4 SU (3-2 ATS), while WM is 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) in the same time frame. WM won 9 gms

    TY for the 1st time S/’00 and their 3 losses were to tms with a comb 28-5 record. They beat Illinois

    23-17 (+7’) making it 3 str yrs they have upset a BCS school. The Broncos did finish the year with

    2 str ATS losses incl a disappointing 45-22 loss at #15 Ball St (+10’) and are 2-2 as a dog on the

    yr. WM is making their 4th bowl appearance (2nd in L/3Y) and is 0-1 SU (1-0 ATS) under HC Cubit,

    losing the ‘06 International Bowl to Cincy (27-24, +7). They played 5 bowl eligible tms and went 2-3

    (1-4 ATS) being outscored 37-27 and outgained 444-399. Rice is making its 2nd bowl appearance in

    the L/3Y after not playing in a bowl for 45 yrs. In ‘06, the Owls squared off against SBC Co-Champ

    Troy in the New Orleans Bowl and were routed 41-17 (-5). HC Bailiff, CUSA’s Coach of the Yr, will be

    coaching in his 1st bowl. Rice enters on a 6 gm SU win streak (5-1 ATS) and has won 9 gms for the

    1st time S/’49. They are 5-1 ATS as a fav TY (avg cover by 17). Rice has played 6 bowl caliber tms

    TY and went 3-3 SU/ATS, being outscored 45-32 and outgained 542-464. These numbers are slightly

    misleading as one of the losses was at #3 Texas (52-10, +29) where they were outgained 600-318.

    Both tms start 14 upperclassmen, with each tm having 7 Sr’s in the starting lineup.

    The Broncos have our #47 off avg 30 ppg and 423 ypg. QB Hiller led the MAC in pass yds and was

    2nd in pass eff and ttl off (294 ypg). He tied former QB Tim Lester (‘99) for WM’s single ssn rec’d for TD

    passes. RB West needs just 30 yds to become the Broncos’ 8th 1,000 yd rusher S/’97. West had five

    100+ yd gms TY incl a ssn high 175 vs the MAC’s #1 D (NI). WR Simmons tied NFL star Greg Jennings

    for the Broncos’ single ssn rec’d with 98 rec. Simmons had five 100+ yd gms TY incl a ssn best 174 yds

    vs Illinois. TE Branden Ledbetter missed the L/2 gms with inj, but is exp to return here. The Broncos

    OL is led by LT Phillip Swanson (1st Tm MAC) and avg 6’4” 300. Despite not having a Sr in the starting

    lineup, they have paved the way for 4.3 ypc while all’g just 14 sks (2.8%). The Broncos have our #72 D

    all’g 24 ppg and 390 ypg. The DL, which is led by DE Zach Davidson, avg 6’3” 260 and is all’g 3.8 ypc

    and has 17.5 of the tm’s 22 sks. The LB unit is led by WLB Austin Prichard and MLB Boston McCornell.

    The WM secondary is all’g 249 ypg passing (56.2%) with a 17-13 ratio, led by FS Louis Delmas, who

    is the first Bronco to reach 100 tkls in a ssn S/’03. The ST’s unit (#54) is all’g 18.8 on KR’s and 14.8 on

    PR’s but does have 2 blk’d K. While the Broncos are avg 22.4 ypr on KR, they avg just 7.2 ypr on PR.

    Rice’s dynamic off (#17) is avg 42 ppg led by CUSA MVP QB Clement and WR Dillard who hold

    the NCAA rec’d for a pass-catch duo with 50 TD passes. Clement had seven 300+ gms TY, incl 4 str

    to end the reg ssn. Dillard is #1 in the NCAA with 19 TD catches and is the NCAA leader in career TD

    rec (59). WR James Casey has emerged as a versatile playmaker who lines up at multiple positions

    (WR, RB, TE, QB) and has caught, ran and thrown for a TD in the same gm 2x this ssn. Casey set a

    CUSA record by hauling in 104 passes. RB Ugokwe leads the rush attack and has 556 yds the L/6

    gms (93 ypg, 5.4). The OL avg’s just 6’3” 283 paving the way for 4.2 ypc while all’g 26 sks (5.5%).Rice

    has struggled with its 4-2-5 def and has our #114 unit. They are all’g 35 ppg but have fared better as

    of late all’g 29 ppg the L/5. The DL avg’s 6’4” 267 and is all’g 193 ypg (5.2) rush and has generated

    12 of the tm’s 22 sks. Rice is #81 in our pass eff rankings all’g 274 ypg (58%) with a 32-14 ratio. FS

    Andrew Sendejo directs the secondary and leads the tm in tkls. The D did receive an emotional boost

    as Sr LB Brian Raines ret’d for the final reg ssn gm just 6 wks after breaking his forearm and being

    told his Rice career was probably over. The Owls have our #89 ST’s, but have blk’d 4 kicks.

    Stats are great but take a look at the checklist. While Rice gets the publicity for a dynamic offense,

    Western has the talent to stay with them. The difference is on the defensive side as the Broncos have

    a decisive edge. There are some under the radar NFL caliber players on the WM side which might

    surprise you tonight. HC Cubit will have his team ready as they have traveled to Nebraska, Missouri,

    WV, Florida St and have recorded upsets of Illinois, Iowa and Virginia all in the past 3 seasons.

    FORECAST: W MICHIGAN (+) BY 3

    RATING: 3* W MICHIGAN

    HOLIDAY BOWL

    HC Gundy has led his Cowboy squad to bowl appearances in 3 of his 4 yrs at the helm (2-0 SU/ATS)

    & will now attempt to guide the prog to just their 4th 10 win ssn all-time. This is the 1st meeting between

    these schools & the Cowboys 2nd Holiday Bowl appearance (62-14, -2’, thrashing of Wyoming in ‘88).

    The Ducks journey to the Holiday Bowl for the 3rd time (1-1 SU & ATS) & make a bowl appearance for

    the 11th time in the L12Y. HC Bellotti is 5-6 SU (6-5 ATS) in his bowl trips with the Ducks incl a dominating

    56-21 (+6) win in the Sun Bowl LY vs USF. Both tms won & covered vs helpless Wash St TY with

    OSU posting a 39-13 win (367-196 edge) & UO rolling to a 63-14 victory (507-271 edge). OSU is 3-3

    SU & 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms TY being outgained by a 508-491 clip while the Ducks went 2-3 SU & ATS

    also being outgained (472-438). OSU was 7-1 ATS as a fav TY while UO was 1-2 SU/ATS as a dog. The

    Ducks are 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS on grass while OSU has struggled recently going 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS L3Y.

    Cowboys have 8 Sr starters among 18 upperclassmen while UO has 11 Sr’s (16 upperclassmen).

    For the 2nd consec ssn UO was forced to use 4 diff QB’s on the yr due to a rash of inj’s. QB Roper

    began the ssn as the starter but was inj’d making way for JUCO & late signee Masoli to lead for the

    remainder of the ssn. Masoli struggled in the pass gm early on as he had a run first attitude but he

    quickly matured & had huge performances in their L/2 gms of the reg ssn. The Ducks were led by the

    dynamic duo of RB’s Johnson & Blount who comb for 2,000+ yds on the ssn & accompanied by Masoli,

    set the single-ssn schl rush rec’d for the 2nd consec yr surpassing ‘07’s mark of 3,272 yds with an even

    stronger 3,334 yds TY. WR Scott & TE Dickson led their respective positions in rec as UO finished with

    our #6 off. The OL avg 6’5” 307 & is led by C Unger & LT Tupou who helped pave the way for 278 ypg

    (6.1) & 42 rushing TD (#2 NCAA). They also all’d a solid 18 sks (5.3%). The Duck D has our #61 ranking.

    Led by DE’s Reed & Tukuafu, the DL avg 6’4” 278 & all’d 119 ypg (3.1) with 26 of the tm’s 38 sks (68%).

    The LB unit is the forgotten bunch of this stellar D but has just 1 Sr starter making this a very underrated

    & young group. UO’s secondary features an abundance of playmakers (all 4 starters earned all-conf

    recognition) led by ROV Chung but they finished a disappointing #46 in pass eff D all’g 264 ypg (58%)

    with a 24-14 ratio as their off put them ahead in many games forcing opp’s to pass often in an attempt

    to catch up. The ST ranks #40 featuring strong performances from members of the ret gm.

    OSU’s 42 ppg & 489 ypg (#7 NCAA) are the most by a Cowboy squad S/’88 (when Gundy played

    QB here). OSU’s 3 losses TY were vs tms ranked #1, #2 & #3. OSU ret’d 7 starters from LY but had to

    replace its top RB & WR. QB Robinson started his 1st full ssn under center with no distractions & posted

    the 3rd highest single ssn mark in schl hist in ttl yds. OSU has avg 230+ ypg both rushing & passing

    the L2Y. 1st Tm B12/Doak Walker semi-finalist Hunter (#6 in NCAA in rushing) posted nine 100+ yd

    performances while getting to the EZ at least twice in 5 gms (42%). AA/1st Tm B12/Bilentnikoff finalist

    WR Bryant broke OSU’s single ssn TD rec rec’d (70+ yds in 10 gms). Mackey finalist TE Pettigrew (6’5”

    260) was slowed by inj earlier in the yr but will be 100% & provides another weapon downfield not only

    as a pass catcher but also as a devastating blk’r. The OL avg 6’5” 293 (2 Sr starters) paving the way for

    the #7 rush off at 256 ypg (5.6) all’g just 13 sks (4.7%). They are led by 1st Tm B12 OT Okung (1st time

    in OSU history 3 players on 1st Tm). The def ret’d 6 starters from a unit that gave up 443 ypg (worst in 20

    yrs), but TY all’d 27 ppg & just 392 ypg (#43). DL avg 6’3” 281 (2 Sr) all’g 124 ypg (4.0) while accounting

    for 69% (9) of the team’s scant 13 sks. LB Sexton (2nd Tm B12) teamed with Lavine & Lemon to make

    up the B12’s most underrated LB corp. OSU is ranked #65 in our pass eff def allowing 269 ypg (63%)

    with a 27-11 ratio. The ST units (#12) are led by 1st Tm B12 KR/PR & B12 ST POY Bryant & 2nd Tm

    B12/Ray Guy winner Fodge (#2 in NCAA in net). DB Cox has 4 KR TD (best in OSU history).

    A pair of 9-3 teams matchup in what historically is always an exciting bowl. Each team has excellent

    rush attacks although OSU does rate the edge in the passing game with the Robinson/Bryant duo. OSU

    has been tested this year as their 3 losses were to Top 3 foes while Oregon only has 2 wins vs bowl

    teams. One big matchup will be the Oregon K as he had 26 TBs which negates the OSU return game

    led by Cox’s 30.1 KR avg. This could be another high scoring shoot-out as Oregon and OSU’s offenses

    have topped 54 pts a combined 10 times this season.

    FORECAST: OKLAHOMA STATE BY 4

    RATING: No Play

    ARMED FORCES BOWL

    These tms met earlier TY in a gm that was moved to Dallas (SMU’s HF) due to Hurricane Ike. The gm

    was played at 10 am in windy/rainy conditions in front of about 2,000 fans. AF was up 17-7 at half then

    31-7 late 3Q before UH staged a furious comeback. They got within 31-28, but AF rec’d the onside K &

    ran out the clock. AF was outgained 534-380, and did not comp a pass, but forced 2 TO’s while playing

    mistake free. AF HC Troy Calhoun has taken the Falcons to a bowl gm in both of his yrs here (0-1 SU &

    ATS). Calhoun’s 17 wins in 2 seasons are the 2nd most ever for a service acad HC in his 1st 2 yrs. In LY’s

    Armed Forces Bowl vs Cal, AF (+4) built a 21-0 lead, but late 3Q QB Carney tore his ACL & MCL. His inj

    deflated the entire squad and Cal went on to win 42-36. UH is making its 4th str bowl appearance and 5th

    in the L6Y (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS), but this is the 1st bowl as a HC for Kevin Sumlin. LY UH played in the Texas

    Bowl and lost to TCU 20-13 (+6). AF went 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from home TY outscoring opps by an

    avg of 27-15 and their only road loss was to TCU. UH is 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) away from home being outscored

    45-34 despite outgaining opp 529-455. AF is 6-3 SU (4-3 ATS) vs non-conf foes under Calhoun. AF had

    a large crowd edge LY with many military fans and should have the same turnout here. TY AF played 6

    bowl elig tms and was outscored 32-26 and outgained 426-337. UH played 6 bowl tms TY going 2-4 SU/

    ATS, outscoring them 41-38 and outgaining them 565-478, but these margins were helped greatly by a

    70-30 win over Tulsa (641-501 yd edge). AF has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 10 Sr’s. The Cougars

    have 12 upperclassmen starters, incl 9 Sr’s. Both tms played Colo St with AF winning SU/ATS (38-17, -9’)

    outgaining them 455-354, while UH lost SU/ATS (28-25, -6’) despite outgaining them 473-422.

    AF’s #78 off is led by true Fr QB Tim Jefferson. Calhoun wanted to infuse more spd and Jefferson

    started the L/7 gms, leading the team to a 5-2 SU record. He was named the MWC Frosh of the Yr and

    is the 1st frosh in AF history to win that honor. AF has really gone with a youth movement TY as five of

    the top 7 rushers are frosh or sophs but the leading rusher is Sr Newell. True Fr Clark is #2. When AF

    chooses to pass (14.5%), the top rec is Jr Josh Cousins. The OL avg 6’4” 273 with 2 Sr’s and they have

    started all 12 gms TY. They have given up just THREE sks (2.5%) while paving the way for 269 ypg rush

    (#5 NCAA). LB Lamendola (#2 tklr MWC) leads our #62 D which is all’g just 139.8 ypg rush (3.6) with

    33 sks (9.6%). The defense has held 5 opp’s under 300 ttl yds TY and has scored 3 defensive TD’s.

    They have also recorded multiple TO’s in 10 of 12 gms TY and AF is +12 in TO margin. DL Paulson is

    #2 in the MWC in sks. The pass D ranks #60 all’g just 196 ypg (58%) with a 14-11 ratio, led by the tm’s

    #2 tklr, Chris Thomas. The ST’s rank #83 behind the leg of PK Harrison. The return gm is dominated

    by underclassmen led by soph Reggie Rembert who leads in both PR and KR avg. The Falcons allow

    19.3 on KR’s and 8.9 on PR’s.

    The Cougars controlled their own destiny heading into the final wk of the ssn, needing a win to capture

    the CUSA West title. They lost at Rice (56-42, -3) and instead of a possible Liberty Bowl berth, they

    end up here. UH’s dynamic #11 off is avg 575 ypg (#2 NCAA) and 41 ppg. They are led by QB Keenum

    (CUSA Off POY) who is #1 in the NCAA in ttl off avg 416 ypg. Keenum spreads the ball around as 9

    players have caught TD passes TY. TE Hafner leads NCAA in rec and TD’s by a TE. You can’t overlook

    the run game as UH is avg 161 ypg (5.2) on the ground. True Fr RB Beall (CUSA Frosh of the Yr) set

    UH frosh records for rush yds and rush TD’s. Houston has our #93 D all’g 31 ppg and 419 ypg. They are

    all’g 170 ypg (4.2) on the ground and are led by DE Phillip Hunt (CUSA Def POY) who has 12 sks (T-#4

    NCAA), but the rest of the tm has only accounted for 10 sks. UH has our #87 pass eff D all’g 249 ypg

    (61%) with a 27-13 ratio. The Cougars have our #60 ST’s and have blk’d 5 kicks (3 FG, 2 P), but they

    have only made 10-16 FG’s (10-14 inside 40). Carrier is avg 22.5 on KR, including a 93 yd KR TD.

    While we’re well aware it is historically not profitable to play against a military academy in a bowl,

    Houston finds itself in a great situation. QB Keenum has exploded for almost 5,000 yds of total offense

    and now faces an AF squad that they outgained 534-380 earlier this year. The D should also improve after

    having seen the same option attack twice this year. The Houston scoring machine has topped 40+ in 7 of

    the L/8 gms while AF’s offense has struggled down the stretch topping 24 just once in the L/5.

    FORECAST: HOUSTON BY 10

    RATING: 3* HOUSTON

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:21pm
13. 0 likes

    NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP ( CONT )

    SUN BOWL

    This is the 75th edition of the Sun Bowl. These 2 have met just 1 time, a 38-13 Pitt victory in the ‘02

    Insight Bowl. Pitt returns to a bowl for the 1st time since their 35-7 Fiesta Bowl defeat at the hands of

    Utah in ‘04 (Panthers had 5 consec bowl appearances under former HC Harris). HC Wannstedt has been

    under heavy criticism after recording a 16-19 record in his 1st 3 yrs but a turning point came LY with

    their huge win over #2 WV which gave them momentum for ‘08. The Beavers are undefeated (4-0 SU

    & 3-1 ATS) in bowl play under HC Riley who was honored as the P10 COY this ssn. Pitt has played in

    the Sun Bowl twice winning in ‘75 & in ‘89. This is OSU’s 2nd trip here in the L3Y as they had a late 2pt

    conv against Mizzou to pull out the win in ‘06. The Panthers went on to win 9 gms for the 1st time S/‘82

    defeating rival WV again while the Beavers tallied a 8-4 mark incl a 2nd str home upset of USC. Pitt has

    played 10 bowl caliber tms (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) outgaining them by a 355-329 mark while OSU went 4-3

    SU (5-2 ATS) against bowl schools outgaining them by a 396-363 clip. Pitt has 8 Sr starters among 16

    upperclassmen while the Beavers have 13 Sr’s & 17 upperclassmen. The Panthers are 5-3 SU & 6-2

    ATS the L3Y on turf while OSU plays their HG’s on the fake stuff (6-2 SU/ATS TY). Pitt is 5-1 SU & 4-2

    ATS on the road TY while the Beavers struggled some going 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) away from Corvallis.

    Pitt has our #35 offense avg 29 ppg & 356 ypg. DW was back on the hot seat after an opening loss

    to BG as they were inconsistent early on. They defeated #10 USF, dominated Navy & won 4 of the L/5

    for a share of #2 in the BE. Pitt delivered 5 come-from-behind wins in the 4Q. The Panthers scored on

    41 of 45 drives in the RZ (9th NCAA). DW went with Bill Stull at QB, who was inj’d the 1st gm LY. The

    offense is built around RB McCoy who carried the tm avg 117 ypg (4.9) & is tied for 2nd in the NCAA

    with 21 TD. WR Kinder ret’d from an ‘07 knee inj to lead the tm in rec while Fr WR Baldwin (6’5”) has

    emerged as a big play threat. TE’s Byham & Dickerson give Stull a balance of strength & speed. The

    OL has 104 career sts & avg 6’4” 299 with 2 Sr’s incl CJ Davis who moved from LG to C after Houser

    went down with inj. They’ve all’d 27 sks & paved the way for 143 ypg (3.. Pitt has our #28 def ranking

    all’g 23 ppg & 321 ypg. The Pitt DL avg 6’3” 274 all’g 128 ypg (3.6) led by bookends Romeus & Sheard

    who comb for 11.5 sks. The LB’s are led by BE Def POY & AA Scott McKillop who is #2 in the NCAA in

    solo tkls (78). OLB Ransom moved from WR prior to the opener due to inj & emerged as the #2 tklr. Pitt

    has our #57 pass eff D all’g 193 ypg (55%) & a 19-14 ratio. The ST’s has our #43 ranking led by K Lee

    who is Pitt’s career FG leader & has never missed a PAT in his career (113).

    With inj’s the L2Y to QB Canfield, Lyle Moevao became the clear-cut starter to begin the ssn at signal

    caller for the Beavers. After suffering a shldr inj that caused him to miss 2 gms, Moevao returned for the

    “Civil War” vs the Ducks & while he threw a career-high 5 TD passes, he also had 2 costly int’s ret’d for TD

    ending any chance for the program’s 1st Rose Bowl appearance S/’65. Many thought that OSU’s run game

    would be down in ‘08 with the loss of RB Bernard but True Fr Jacquizz Rodgers silenced many critics as

    he finished 2nd in the P10 in rushing yds on the ssn, earning P10 OPOY & FOY despite missing the “Civil

    War” w/inj (should ret here). WR Stroughter ret’d TY & comb with Morales & James Rodgers (older bro of

    Quizz, out for the bowl w/inj) to become one of the most dangerous units in the conf. The OL avg 6’3” 299

    & paved the way for 165 ypg rush (4.3) led by OT Levitre. OSU all’d 16 sks TY (4.0%) & has our #20 off.

    The DL avg 6’2” 286 with 3 Sr starters. OSU uses a heavy rotation on the line keeping players fresh and

    they recorded 23 of the tm’s 34 sks (68%) on the ssn led by DE’s Norris & Butler. The LB unit consists of

    3 playmakers leading our #32 overall def. OSU is #17 in pass eff D all’g 189 ypg (53%) with a 15-12 ratio

    led by 4 solid Sr’s. OSU’s ST unit finished in decent shape at #40 thanks to big ssns in the ret gm.

    Pitt’s goal the last few weeks was to beat W Virginia and Conn and make it to the Sun Bowl. They

    also covered 4 of their L/5 gms with the only ATS loss by 1 pt at Cincy. OSU played with pressure

    throughout Nov trying to reach the Rose Bowl, but fell short of that goal and now it is up to HC Riley

    to re-motivate his troops. We believe he can do just that after having his team finish the year on an 8-2

    ATS run while having played 3 BCS bowl teams. Oregon St’s DE’s can cause havoc on Pitt’s QB’s and

    should take them out of their gameplan.

    FORECAST: OREGON ST BY 11

    RATING: 28 OREGON ST

    MUSIC CITY BOWL

    This is just the 3rd meeting between these 2 (BC 2-0) but the last game was in ‘63. BC is 13-18-1

    all-time vs SEC tms. This is BC’s 10th consec bowl and a win here will extend the nation’s longest

    active bowl game winning streak to 9 (6-2 ATS). BC played here in ‘01 and upset #16 Georgia 20-16

    (+4). Jagodzinski is 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS in bowls. This is Vandy’s first bowl trip S/’82 and VU HC Johnson

    has never played or coached in a bowl gm but did lead his Furman team to the IAA Nat’l Champ gm

    in ‘01. These 2 both faced WF TY and BC defeated WF 24-21 (+2) but Vandy lost 23-10 (+4) in their

    reg ssn finale. The Eagles have faced 9 bowl caliber tms (VT 2x) going 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS outgaining

    them 308-279. Vandy has faced 7 bowl tms with a 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS record but was outscored by an

    avg of 24-22 and outgained by an avg of 361-271. Vandy will definitely have the fan edge as this is

    being played in their backyard and BC fans are known as poor travelers. BC has 7 Sr starters among

    14 upperclassmen starters while VU only has 4 Sr starters among 16 upperclassmen. The Eagles

    are 4-1 SU but 1-4 ATS away from Chestnut Hill as a fav and VU is 6-2 ATS as a dog TY (4-1 on road

    w/3 outright upsets). Vandy has the schedule edge (#21-70).

    BC, who was picked to finish 4th in the ACC Atlantic Div in the pressn, finished the reg ssn with a 9-3

    record and advanced to their 2nd consec ACC Champ gm but once again were dealt a second-tier bowl.

    They have lost 2 str yrs in the ACC Title game to VT and has lost the game that would have created a

    BCS spot in 3 of the L/5Y. RFr QB Davis, subbing for the inj’d Crane (broken collarbone), is only starting

    his 3rd game. In the ACC Champ game he threw for 263 yds (39.5%) throwing 2 int and was sk’d 5x. RB

    Harris broke the BC frosh rushing record. The O-line avg 6’6” 307 and is anchored by 1st Tm ACC OG Clif

    Ramsey and 2nd Tm ACC OT Anthony Castonzo. The Eagles are avg 3.9 ypc rush and have all’d 21 sks

    (5.1%). They have our #68 offense and #20 defense. BC DL avg 6’3” 293 and is led by 1st Tm ACC DT

    BJ Raji & 2nd Tm ACC Ron Brace. The rush D is only all’g 2.9 ypc (#7 NCAA) and 20 of the 34 sks are

    by the DL. LB Mark Herzlich, who was named the ACC Def POY, is tied for #14 in the NCAA along with

    S Paul Anderson with 6 int each. The Eagles lead the NCAA with 26 int and have ranked in the Top 25 in

    int 7x’s S/’00. The secondary allowed 181 ypg pass (56%) but just 9 TD. BC’s D or sp tms have scored 9

    times this season (5 IR TD, 1 FR TD, 1 PR TD, 1 blk P TD and 1 safety). The Eagles have our #100 ranked

    sp tms. BC hasn’t tried a FG longer than 39 yds and that was NG in their 1st meeting vs VT.

    This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Commodores as just 9 starters ret’d from ‘07,

    but VU surprisingly started out 5-0 for the 1st time S/’43 upsetting 4 tms to climb to #13 in the AP poll.

    In that 5-0 start, VU defeated a ranked tm at home for the 1st time S/‘92 (SC) but VU was outgained

    325-225 in that 24-17 win, grabbed 4 int (incl 1 ret’d for TD) to beat Ole Miss 23-17 (outgained 385-

    202), and defeated then #13 Aub for their 2nd win over a ranked opp TY (1st time S/’55). VU led the

    nation in TO margin in the 1st 5 gms (+9), but finished +6. VU’s #104 off struggled with inconsistent

    QB play with Nickson starting the 1st 6 until he was benched in their 1st loss of the yr to Miss St.

    Adams started the next 3 (0-3 SU) until he was inj’d vs UF. Nickson st’d the L/3 incl their bowl clinching

    win over UK, but Adams saw playing time in the L/2. Starting RB Jennings was banged up all yr

    which opened the door for Jr RB Hawkins. WR Smith missed the 1st 4 gms TY with inj after starting

    LY while VU lost 3 WR’s for the yr due to inj. The OL was rebuilt after losing all 5 starters from ‘07

    and all’d 26 sks (8.7%) with the starters avg 6’6” 297. The DL avg 6’5” 269 and neither line has a Sr

    starter. Vandy is known for producing solid LB’s and 2nd Tm SEC Benoist led the tm in tkls. Vandy has

    a super secondary (#12 in pass D) led by 1st Tm SEC CB DJ Moore who was #2 in the SEC with 6

    int and also contributed on off (216 ttl yds), and sp tms (top KR & PR). The Commodores’ D is #26 in

    our rankings. Vandy suffered 5 blk’d punts TY causing their otherwise solid sp tms unit to rank #107.

    BC has been an opportunistic team with 9 defensive and ST’s scores. Those opportunities will

    be tougher to achieve against a tm that had time to prepare. Vandy’s offense has struggled with both

    QB’s under 50% this year and throwing for a combined 13-11 ratio. The key will be BC’s defensive

    front 7 and if they play to their potential, they have the ability to control this game.

    FORECAST: BC/VANDERBILT UNDER 42

    RATING: 2* UNDER

    INSIGHT BOWL

    Just the 7th meeting (3-3) with the last coming in ‘73. The most recent link between the schools

    came in ‘97 when then-HC Mason left KU for Minnesota. Ironically, Mason’s last game came in the

    Gophers’ only previous visit to Tempe (blew 31 pt lead & lost 44-41 to TT in ‘06, +7). Mason was axed

    immediately after, opening the door for bowl virgin Tim Brewster who is familiar with Mangino from their

    RRR days (Brewster on UT’s staff; Mangino w/OU’s). Mangino is 2-1 SU/ATS in bowls & is the only HC

    to guide KU to 4. UM is 3-0 ATS as a dog in bowls (4-1 as a dog TY) while KU has covered its only

    bowl as a fav (‘05). Vs bowl tms UM went 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) despite being outgained 383-337. KU was

    2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS also being outgained (478-420). UM played its final gm in the HHH Metrodome but

    has gone 3-1 ATS on grass (KU 3-1 also). The Gophers are a young team with just 3 seniors starting

    regularly among 15 upperclassmen & the Jayhawks have 8 senior starters (14 upperclassmen).

    Despite a 4 game losing streak, the Gophers’ 7 wins marked the biggest 1 year improvement in

    program history after a 1-11 disaster in ‘07. UM’s offense ranks #81 as they regularly start 5 frosh

    including 3 on the OL. The headliners are soph QB Weber and 1st TM Big Ten WR Decker who led the

    conference in rec’s despite totaling just 3 in the L/3 due to an ankle injury. The team lost RB Bennett

    (ACL in the 2nd game) and had to go with true frosh Eskridge and Salamon. The OL started 9 different

    lineups due to injuries and inexperience. The Gophers finished last in the league in rushing offense

    which Brewster called “unacceptable” and he fired OL coach Phil Meyer after the season-ending 55-0

    loss to Iowa. His replacement is ex-USC OL coach Tim Davis and Brewster said the team will use more

    2 TE and 2 RB sets in the bowl. UM had the NCAA’s worst defense in ‘07 and Brewster upgraded the

    unit athletically by signing several JC’s and moving players. UM led the Big Ten with 30 TO’s forced (#8

    NCAA) while trimming its ypg allowed from 519 to 378 (#65 overall D). DE VanDeSteeg returned to

    All-Big Ten form with a team leading 9.5 sks. Ex-DE Campbell led the team in tackles at MLB and JC

    S Simmons led the conf with 17 passes defended. The ST’s are #42 in our rankings with PR Sherels

    finishing #2 in the conf with a 12.4 avg.

    KU has our #25 off avg 33 ppg & 431 ypg which is down 10 ppg & 49 ypg from its Orange Bowl ssn

    LY. Two main reasons for the decline were the tm’s lack of health & the upgrade in the schedule (OU,

    TT & UT pulled from the B12 S, avoided all in ‘07). KU returned 6 starters from LY, but lost its top RB,

    WR & arguably the ‘07 nation’s best secondary player (Talib). QB Reesing’s numbers, as expected,

    were down, but he did finish #21 in the NCAA in pass eff (145.. Reesing was also overshadowed

    due to the B12’s QB play, but only avg 251 ypg (56%) with 5 (42%) of his int vs the B12 S. WR Meier

    provides a very reliable target as 66 (76%) of his rec resulted in FD’s (18 FD rec on 3rd/4th down). He

    is the bkup QB who spends the majority of his time with them in practice. 2nd Tm B12 WR Briscoe had

    six 100+ yd performances (3 straight). The running gm (#9 in B12 down 68 ypg from LY) suffered at

    times with inj’s & playing catchup, but when healthy Sharp is a solid option. The OL avg 6’4” 308 (3 Sr

    starters) paving the way for 129 ypg (3.7) while all’g 28 sks (6.0%). The def returned 9 starters from

    the ‘07 squad, but the 30 ppg & 402 ypg allowed are the worst S/’03 (Mangino’s 2nd yr). They have

    our #59 ranking & have gotten to opposing QB’s 26 times (5.3%). The DL avg 6’4” 271 (1 Sr). The LB

    unit (3 Sr starters all back from ‘07) has been banged up all ssn. The secondary has had a problem

    with inj’s also as KU moved former WR Patterson over to start at CB. KU has our #40 pass eff def

    allowing 276 ypg (61%) with a 26-15 ratio. KU has our #95 ST unit & struggles in PR coverage (10.9

    #86 in NCAA) while the net punting (33.0) is ranked #95. KU is #118 (17.4) in the NCAA in KR’s.

    While it’s tough to back a Gopher squad that limps into this bowl with 4 straight losses, incl a 55-0

    shutout, KU has ridden the coattails of last season’s overrated run and has been an AF once this year

    almost losing as an 11 pt fav. Minny HC Brewster is changing some offensive schemes after firing his OL

    coach after the Iowa loss which puts Kansas in a position of not knowing what to expect. The teams are

    closer than this large line, and we’ll take the generous pts vs an unmotivated Jawhawks squad.

    FORECAST: MINNESOTA (+) THE PTS KANSAS BY 7

    RATING: 1* MINNESOTA

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:22pm
14. 0 likes

    CHICK-fil-A BOWL

    The ACC and SEC are tied 8-8 in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and 10 of those gms have been decided by a TD

    or less. Their last meeting was the 2000 Peach Bowl when LSU upset #15 GT 28-14 (+8’), but GT is 12-6 SU

    all-time in this series. GT is 0-3 all-time in this bowl while LSU is 4-0 and in ‘05 they blasted #9 Miami 40-3

    (+7). In his 1st yr as HC, Paul Johnson was named the ACC COY with 9 wins (most ever by a GT HC) and

    GT upset in-state rival UGA for the 1st time in 8 yrs. Johnson is 2-2 SU (3-1 ATS) in bowls. Miles is 4-2 SU

    (3-2-1 ATS) in bowls but has won and covered all 3 at LSU. LSU has been to a schl rec’d 9 consec bowls.

    This is GT’s 12 str bowl and they are 22-14 all-time but have lost 3 str (1-2 ATS). Five of GT’s L/7 bowls have

    been out West but now they get to play in the Georgia Dome which is just 2 miles from Dodd Stadium. LSU

    is also familiar with this site as they’ve plyd here 6x’s S/‘00. GT is 2-4 SU & ATS as a bowl fav while LSU has

    pulled 2 str upsets as a bowl dog. Both tms faced Miss St & UGA TY and GT was 2-0 SU & ATS winning by

    an avg of 42-23 while LSU was 1-1 (0-2 ATS) and outscored 38-36. Fifteen of GT’s 22 starters will likely be

    frosh or soph’s. On off there are no Sr starters & just 4 on D. LSU has 9 Sr starters and 18 upperclassmen

    starters. GT faced 7 bowl tms TY and went 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. LSU faced 6 and went 2-4 SU (1-5 ATS) being

    outscored by an avg of 26-35. This gm is officially a sell-out with GT selling their 17,500 allotment and LSU

    exp to sell theirs, but the crowd will likely be pro-GT. ACC teams are 6-4 SU/5-5 ATS TY vs SEC teams.

    LSU becomes the 1st BCS defending champ to play in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, and has clinched the worst

    record by a defending BCS Champ at 7-5 (prior worst FL 9-4 in ‘07). Problems began in spg when QB Perrilloux

    was dismissed leaving OC Crowton with Harvard transfer Hatch, rFr Lee and true frosh Jefferson (expected to

    RS). Hatch st’d the 1st 3 then gave way to Lee and suffered a leg inj which caused him to miss the L/5. Lee st’d

    the next 8 but struggled throwing 7 int ret’d for TD’s and then was inj’d vs Ole Miss leaving Jefferson (27 career

    atts) the starter for the finale vs Ark. Miles said Jefferson will start the bowl but expects Hatch and Lee to play.

    RB Scott was banged up at the end of the yr but still made 1st Tm SEC and should be healthy for the bowl. WR

    LaFell was #2 in the SEC in rec pg, #3 in rec ypg. The OL starters avg 6’4” 316 led by 1st Tm SEC OG Johnson

    (6’7” 375). LSU is #26 on off and #29 on def in our rankings. DC Pelini left LY to become HC of Neb and was

    replaced by co-DC’s, Peveto & Mallory. LSU went from one of the top D’s in the country to 2nd last in the SEC

    in scoring def and last in the SEC in pass D (#36 in our pass eff D rankings). Though there may be a coaching

    change in the offseason, they will keep the staff intact for the bowl. Luckily the def will have 3 wks to prepare

    for GT’s option which LSU defenders said they haven’t seen since HS. The DL avg 6’4” 287 with 3 Sr starters.

    MLB Beckwith missed 2 full gms and wasn’t 100% and the secondary is inexperienced with 5 frosh & sophs

    in the 2 deep. LSU is #19 in our sp tms rankings led by 1st Tm SEC K David who has rewritten LSU’s record

    book. RS Holliday qualified for the Olympic trials (in 100M) and the team had a net of 37.2.

    ACC POY Dwyer is the feature RB in Johnson’s spread-option off. He is the 2nd GT player in the L/3Y

    to receive the honor (Calvin Johnson ‘06). Dwyer leads the ACC in rush yds and has rushed for 100 yds

    9x’s TY to tie a GT record. WR Thomas is #5 in the ACC in rec ypg. GT’s OL avg 6’4” 290 with 0 Sr starters.

    LT Gardner elected to have shldr surg in Nov and was lost for the yr but was still selected 1st Tm ACC and

    RT Brown was lost with a spinal inj. The OL in led by LG Howard (2nd Tm ACC). GT is #3 in the NCAA avg

    282 rush ypg (5.6) and all’d 18 sks (12.9%). GT has avg 402 ypg L/3 despite losing the 2 OL starters. GT

    has our #42 off and #37 def. Tech has one of the top DL in the country that avg 6’4” 278 with 3 Sr starters

    led by AA DE Johnson, 1st Tm ACC DT Walker, 2nd Tm ACC DT Richard and HM ACC DE Morgan (So).

    The DL allows 3.5 ypc and tallied 24.5 of the tm’s 32 sks. The LB corps has been banged up TY but could

    be healthy here. GT is #54 in the pass eff D all’g 196 ypg pass & is #9 in the NCAA with 18 int. The secondary

    is led by 2nd Tm ACC S Burnett who is tied #1 in the NCAA for int. GT’s sp tms struggled TY (#91 our

    rankings). GT is avg 19.4 ypr on KR’s and just 6.8 on PR’s. They allow 19.8 on KR’s and 8.5 on PR’s. GT

    K Scott Blair ranks last in the ACC among bowl teams in FG’s and GT’s net punt avg is just 34.0.

    Many doubted Johnson could bring his option offense to a BCS school and succeed and he proved them

    wrong. GT has a shot at 10 wins for the 1st time S/‘98. LSU has lost 6 str ATS and lost the L2 reg ssn gms

    for the 1st time S/’81. Those are the exact reasons we’ll side with LSU. It’s time to motivate quality players to

    play to their potential and a fresh start to next year. LSU’s D is loaded with NFL caliber players and given extra

    prep time the option will be containable. Expect LSU to show their pride after being instilled as a 4 pt dog.

    FORECAST: LSU BY 7

    RATING: 4* LSU

    OUTBACK BOWL

    This is the first meeting between these schools but Tampa is a familiar destination for both. Iowa

    has been here twice upsetting Zook’s Florida Gators 37-17 (+3’) in ‘03 but losing to Meyer’s 1st Gators

    squad, 31-24 (E) in ‘05. SC is 2-0 SU & ATS here beating Ohio St in B2B matchups under Lou Holtz in

    ‘00 & ‘01. Ferentz is 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in bowls (2-1 SU & ATS vs SEC) but this is the 1st time his team is

    favored. Spurrier is 7-7 SU & ATS in bowls (1-1 at SC) and 1-2 SU & ATS as a bowl dog. Iowa is 5-3 ATS

    as a fav & SC is 1-3-1 as a dog TY. UI was 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS vs bowl teams with the 3 losses (all vs tms

    with 9 wins) by a combined 9 pts. The Hawks outscored bowl foes 28-16 and outgained them 368-293.

    SC was 3-5 vs bowl tms (3-4-1 ATS) being outscored 24-19 with the ydg surprisingly even. Iowa got this

    bowl bid over a 9 win Northwestern team that it lost to based on their reputation as travellers and their

    fans should be eager to snap up tickets after sitting home LY. SC also sat home in ‘07 at 6-6 and have

    sold their allotments to previous bowls giving them this bid over LSU. Iowa has 6 senior starters among

    11 upperclassmen and SC has 7 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles.

    The Hawkeyes finished the spring with a walk-on as the starting TB and QB Christensen in his 2nd

    season as a starter. Over the summer bruising TB Shonn Greene returned to the program and the Hawks

    wisely built their #41 offense around him. The results were spectacular as Greene set a school record in

    rush yards, earning the Big Ten’s Offensive POY as the NCAA’s only RB to run for at least 100 yds in all

    12 games. Greene’s presence allowed the staff to bench Christensen for the more mobile Ricky Stanzi.

    Stanzi’s level of play picked up as the season progressed as he led the Hawks to their 4Q comeback

    over undefeated Penn St. His top targets are WR’s Derrell Johnson-Koulianos (7 rec vs the Lions) and

    1st Tm All Big Ten TE Brandon Myers. The OL was greatly improved as they cut their sacks allowed from

    46 in ‘07 to 26 (8.6%). Iowa is #10 in our defensive rankings. UI has the NCAA’s most experienced DT

    tandem in Matt Kroul and Big Ten DL of the Year Mitch King. With them clogging the middle the Hawks

    are #10 in the NCAA in rush defense (98.3, 3.1). The LB’s are active with 2nd Tm Big Ten honoree Pat

    Angerer actually leading the league in int’s. The secondary is #8 in our pass eff D allowing 191 ypg (56%)

    with an 8-20 ratio. Iowa has our #30 ST’s unit led by P Ryan Donahue.

    Spurrier is notoriously hard on QBs and TY was no exception but the QB position was just one of

    many disappointing parts of SC’s #73 offense. Beecher started the opener but threw 4 int and was later

    inj’d playing just 1 more gm all yr. Smelley (6 sts ‘07) std the next 6, until Garcia led SC to 10 pts in the

    4Q vs KY to pull out a 24-17 win, earning the start at LSU. Garcia st’d the next 2 until a knee inj vs Tenn

    gave Smelley another chance. Smelley st’d the L/3 with both QBs alternating on every other snap vs

    Ark and then both playing in their blowout loss to FL. Smelley played the whole gm in a losing effort vs

    Clemson and Spurrier said that Garcia would start the bowl. QB cch Reaves left SC after the reg ssn.

    RB Davis led the tm in rushing, but SC ranks last in the SEC (#108 NCAA) in rush off (98 ypg, 2.9). WR

    McKinley led the tm in recs & rec yds despite missing 3 gms with an inj and surpassed Sterling Sharpe

    as SC’s all-time leading rec and rec ydg leader. TE Cook has 4.37 spd and was named 1st Tm SEC. The

    OL was once again a weakness with the lineup shuffled often to try to increase production. The starters

    avg 6’5” 301 with 2 seniors but allowed 38 sks (9.5%, 2nd worst in SEC) and OL coach Hunt was let go

    after the reg ssn. SC’s #11 defense made huge strides under new DC Ellis Johnson TY improving their

    rush ypg allowed from 209 (4. in ‘07 to 129 ypg (3.6) TY. LB Norwood earned 1st Tm SEC leading the

    tm with 13 tfl and SS Emanuel Cook is 2nd Tm SEC leading the tm in tkls for the 2nd straight yr. SC is

    #26 in our pass D rankings allowing 160 pass ypg (57%) with an 8-12 ratio. SC’s sp tms rank #56 with K

    Succop missing 2 FGs vs Vandy and 4 vs UK (2 were 50+) but otherwise hitting 17 of 20 and had TBs

    on 42% of his KOs. The return gm was avg and P Lanning’s net was just 34.3.

    Iowa finished the season with 3 straight wins including the upset of Penn St to make it to this bowl.

    South Carolina meanwhile dropped their last 2 (Clemson & Florida) by a combined score of 87-20. The

    key to this game will be the QB that makes the fewest mistakes as both defenses rate in the Top 15. The

    Iowa offense is reliant on AA RB Greene who had 100+ rush yds in all 12 games. We are calling for Iowa

    to win by 3 vs Spurrier and a tough defense.

    FORECAST: IOWA BY 3

    RATING: No Play

    GATOR BOWL

    1st meeting between the schools since the ‘81 Orange Bowl when CU beat NU 22-15 (+4) to win the

    National Title (12-0 ssn). This will be CU’s 9th appearance in the Gator (4-4, more than any other school,

    but 1st S/’00) & 31st overall (15-15). NU will be playing in their 45th bowl (22-22), but 1st here. CU finished

    strong under new HC Swinney (4 wins in L/5), who replaced Bowden after he resigned. This is his first bowl

    as a HC while its NU’s Pelini’s 2nd bowl as a HC, as he was in the interim in the ‘03 Alamo Bowl (won 17-3

    over MSU, -3). CU plays all of its HG’s on grass while NU plays on turf (3-5 SU & 3-4-1 ATS on grass L/3Y).

    Tigers have 7 Sr starters & 15 upperclassmen while the Huskers have 11 & 16. CU is 4-6 SU & 3-6 ATS at

    a neutral site and has been a road fav just once TY (defeat UVA 13-3, -2’). NU has dropped both gms as

    an AD (1-1 ATS). NU faced the tougher schedule (#33-49). CU faced 8 bowl caliber teams and was 3-5 SU

    & 2-6 ATS, getting outgained 325-309. NU was 3-4 SU/ATS (-4 ppg & -5 ypg). CU traditionally travels well

    & NU will do the same after sitting out LY during the holidays.

    CU’s offense is led by RB’s James Davis and CJ Spiller (2nd Tm ACC RB), QB Cullen Harper and

    WR Aaron Kelly (2nd Tm ACC). Davis needs just 112 rushing yds and 2 TD’s to become CU’s career

    leader in both categories. He currently has 49 TD’s after a 3 TD performance vs SC in the reg ssn finale.

    Spiller leads the ACC in all-purp yds and needs just 114 more to become CU’s career leader. Harper

    ranked third in the ACC in pass eff completing 63.2%. Kelly is the ACC’s career leader in rec’s with 226

    and needs just 23 receiving yds to become CU’s all-time leader. The O-line avg 6’4” 313 but has been

    banged up most of the season and is avg just 3.6 ypc rush and 29 sks (#92 NCAA). In fact, Bobby

    Hutchinson, who was not exp to play TY and just serve as a student coach, was reinstated because of

    all the inj’s. Thomas Austin, however, has been solid playing C & OG and earned 2nd Tm ACC honors.

    The Tigers have our #52 offense and #17 defense. Clemson’s DL also struggled at times this year all’g

    3.8 ypc rush D and the team is ranked #106 in the NCAA with just 14 sacks (9 by DL). The Tigers did

    lose DE Ricky Sapp for the year with a partially torn ACL vs UVA. CU, however, is #17 in the NCAA in

    total D and #10th in pass D. The LB corps is led by Jr Kavell Connor (#1 tkls) and rFr Brandon Maye,

    who was 2nd in the voting for ACC Def Rookie of the Year. The leader of the defense is 1st Tm ACC S

    Michael Hamlin who has 18 career takeaways (int & FR) and needs just 1 more to become CU’s all-time

    leader. CU has our #59 Sp Tms. Spiller was named 1st Tm ACC as a specialist and ranks #10 in the

    NCAA in KR’s. CU avg’s 22.2 ypr on KR and 7.5 on PR and allows 20.2 on KR and 9.2 on PR.

    NU has our #13 off avg 36 ppg (28+ in 11 gms) & 458 ypg (400+ in 9 gms). The numbers mirror LY’s

    non-bowl squad proving that keeping OC Watson was a smart move. NU ret’d just 5 starters from LY, but

    the entire RB corps was back & due to QB inj’s Ganz started the final 3 (466 ypg, 15-7 ratio). He picked up

    were he left off, but with a new staff NU decided to keep the ball on the ground more (+30 ypg from ‘07).

    RB Lucky sat out the ssn finale but Helu (1st career start) ran for a NU ssn high 166 yds & has 3 of the

    Huskers’ 100 yd efforts (all in L/4 gms). WR Swift is just the 2nd NU player ever to top 900+ rec yds & with

    Peterson makes up the B12’s most underrated WR tandem. The OL avg 6’5” 303 (2 Sr starters) paving the

    way for 174 ypg (4.6) allowing 21 sks (5.3%). The OL will be the healthiest it’s been all ssn for the bowl.

    The def returned 6 starters from a ‘07 squad that allowed 38 ppg & 477 ypg (worst in school history!). They

    improved drastically TY allowing 29 ppg, just 362 ypg & have tallied 30 sks (T-#3 B12) to rank #51. The DL

    avg 6’5” 281 (2 Sr starters), allowing 126 ypg (3.9) & have accounted for 80% of the sks. The DL leader is

    2nd Tm B12 Suh (led B12 in tkls among DL). LB Glenn may miss the bowl (susp, CS), but Dillard should

    be 100% anchoring the unit. NU has our #45 pass eff def allowing 236 ypg (59%) with a 17-10 ratio. The

    ST’s rank #64. K Henery’s 57 yd gm winning FG over CU was the longest in Husker history.

    HC Swinney certainly earned his new head coaching position by rallying the Tigers to a 4-1 SU/ATS

    finish. The defense did their job by all’g a total of 24 pts the L3 games albeit vs the offenses of Duke, Virg

    and S Carolina. The games in which Spiller and Davis were shut down were ugly as they scored 17 or

    less in those 4 losses. The Huskers played up to their potential as they handled each of the opponents

    they should have while all 4 losses were to current Top 20 teams. We like the matchup as Clemson has

    yet to face a true passing offense while the Huskers bring a balanced rush/pass attack.

    FORECAST: NEBRASKA BY 7

    RATING: 3*

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:22pm
15. 0 likes

    CAPITAL ONE BOWL

    The only meeting between these 2 teams was a 34-27 win (line Even) by UGA in the 1989 Gator

    Bowl. UGA is 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) vs Big Ten tms in bowls S/‘88 (7-2 all-time SU). MSU has only played

    3 SEC tms S/’47 and all were in bowls (1-2 SU & ATS). Richt is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in bowls and LY

    smoked undefeated #10 Hawaii 41-10 in the Sugar Bowl (-7’). Dantonio is 1-1 SU in bowls and 2-0

    ATS losing SU but covering vs Matt Ryan’s BC team LY in the Champs Sports Bowl which is played

    in the same stadium. MSU brought 25,000 fans to that contest which secured their bid for this bowl.

    The Bulldogs own the SEC’s last win in the Capital One Bowl, a 34-27 OT win over Purdue following

    the ‘03 ssn & UGA has won & covered their L/2 in this bowl. MSU won their only previous appearance

    in this bowl, 37-34 (+2’) over Florida in ‘99 after Nick Saban left for LSU. That was the last time MSU

    won 10 games, which has happened just twice in school history. UGA is on an 0-6 run as a favorite

    including suffering an outright upset to GT in their home finale. The Spartans were 0-3 ATS as a dog

    TY losing by an avg of 25 ppg to Cal, OSU & PSU. UGA has played 8 bowl teams with a 5-3 SU record

    (2-5-1 ATS) and only outscored those tms by an avg of 34-31 but outgained bowl tms by an avg of

    425-351. MSU is also 5-3 SU and 2-5-1 ATS vs bowl squads getting outscored 25-22 and outgained

    350-347. UGA has only 5 seniors in the starting lineup and 10 upperclassmen. The Spartans have 7

    seniors among their 14 upperclassmen starters.

    MSU’s #44 offense rode its durable workhorse Javon Ringer. After sharing the load in ‘07, Doak Walker

    finalist Ringer led the NCAA with 370 carries, 344 carries more than the team’s #2 rusher. The emphasis

    on the ground game took the pressure off senior QB Brian Hoyer and a young receiving corps. Hoyer

    struggled in LY’s bowl with 5 TO’s including 4 int. He finished with the 2nd lowest completion % among

    BCS starting QB’s. His play did pick up down the stretch thanks to the emergence of WR Blair White

    who had 20 rec for 427 yds in the L/4. The big OL (6’5” 312 avg) paved the way for Ringer’s success

    and also allowed just 18 sks (5.0%). The Spartans have our #34 stop unit. MSU’s DL is led by DE Trevor

    Anderson’s 8 sks. 1st Tm Big Ten sophomore Greg Jones led the LB corps. The secondary ranks #29

    in our pass efficiency led by All-Big Ten SS Otis Wiley. They will now face a potential #1 DC at QB for

    the 2nd bowl in a row as they held BC QB Ryan to 22-47 for 249 yds with a 3-3 ratio in his final college

    game. The ST’s are #55 with K Swenson setting a school record by hitting 15 straight FG’s.

    UGA started the season #1 but injuries really took a toll on this team. UGA QB Stafford leads the

    SEC in passing averaging 267 ypg for our #11 offense. Highlight-reel RB Moreno is also the SEC leader

    in rush ypg (111.5) and a Doak Walker finalist. UGA also boasts the SEC’s top 2 leaders in rec ypg,

    true frosh WR Green (79.3) and senior WR Massaquoi (75. who finally fulfilled his massive potential

    this year. The only purported weakness on offense lies in the OL which has been banged up all year

    and lost 3 players (including 2 starters) to season ending injuries. Despite that, UGA averaged 154

    rush ypg (4.7) and the OL only allowed 15 sks (#2 in SEC) in 369 pass atts (4.1%). The starting OL

    consists of 3 frosh and 2 sophs and they average 6’5” 298. The Bulldogs #31 D also had significant

    inj’s in ‘08 with future NFL DT Owens lost for the year in the opener and starting DE Battle and MLB

    Ellerbe missing significant PT with inj’s. UGA ranked last in the SEC in sks (18) and struggled against

    the run at the end of the yr allowing 226 (5.0) in the L/5 including 409 vs GT. With those inj’s, soph LB

    Rennie Curran became the standout leading the tm in tkls (109) and tfl (9). UGA’s secondary finished

    #63 in our pass D rankings allowing 188 ypg (56%) with a 17-10 ratio. UGA’s #20 ST unit is led by P

    Mimbs with a super 37.6 net. True frosh K Walsh started out strong, but missed 6 of his L/10 FG’s.

    Georgia could not live up to the early hype after being picked #1 in the summer. Attrition took its

    toll as they struggled against the SEC leaders. While they finished the season on an 0-6 ATS run

    as favorites, they have now rallied behind HC Richt’s cries to make this the 1st game towards next

    season. Michigan St has nice numbers this season but check out what they’ve done against teams

    with winning records. They’ve gone 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS vs Cal, Iowa, OSU, Wisky and Penn St. This

    game will show just how much difference you can have between a pair of 9-3 squads.

    FORECAST: GEORGIA BY 14

    RATING: 2* GEORGIA

    ROSE BOWL

    Under Paterno the Lions are 4-3 SU & ATS vs the Trojans with the last contest coming in the 2000 Kickoff

    Classic, a 29-5 USC (+2) win. The Trojans won the lone previous Rose Bowl matchup, 14-3 in ‘23. USC now

    makes its record 7th straight BCS appearance and 34th Rose Bowl bid overall (23-10 SU). Carroll is 5-2

    SU & ATS in bowls including 2-1 SU/ATS in the Grandaddy of Them All. Paterno is an NCAA best 23-10-1

    SU & 21-9-1 ATS in bowls with this being just his 2nd trip to Pasadena. The Lions (-17) won the 1994 Rose

    Bowl over Oregon, 38-20 which capped an undefeated season. The teams each played the Big Ten and P10

    runnerups. PSU finished 2-0 SU & ATS winning by an avg of 29-10 and outgaining them 368-315. USC was

    1-1 SU & ATS (329-276 yd edge) with their Sept 25th upset loss at Oreg St costing them a trip to the title

    game. Under Carroll USC is 5-0 SU/ATS vs the Big Ten outscoring them by 22.6 ppg. USC is 5-1 SU/3-3

    ATS vs bowl tms TY outgaining them 414-206 while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS outgaining bowl foes 392-307.

    USC is 5-1 SU but 2-4 ATS on the road TY while PSU is 4-1 SU & ATS. The Trojans have 10 senior starters

    (8 on D) among 17 upperclassmen while the Lions have 12 seniors and 17 upperclassmen. USC is 11-17-1

    ATS as a DD fav while PSU has been a DD dog just once S/’04 (28-6 loss at OSU, +17).

    Paterno vowed that the Lions would be back in the national title hunt again in ‘08. The Lions moved to the

    Spread HD to best utilize athletic QB Daryll Clark. In the Lions’ 1st 6 gms Clark led the league in pass eff and

    threw just 1 int. He suffered a concussion vs Ohio St but backup Pat Devlin led the Lions to the big win. Clark

    struggled hitting 9-23 for 86 yds in the loss to Iowa in which they blew a 2H lead and their chance at the title

    game. He ended the season hitting 16-26 for 341 yds & 4 TD’s vs MSU. Devlin opted to trans foll the season.

    Clark’s top target was Deon Butler who broke Bobby Engram’s school receptions record. Evan Royster and

    speedy Stephfon Green led the run game. The OL had 3 members named 1st Tm All-Big Ten led by AA C

    AQ Shipley. They paved the way for a 5.3 ypg and allowed just 12 sks (3.5%). Despite suffering some major

    personnel losses (2 DT’s kicked off in Aug & top LB Lee tore his ACL) the Lions still have our #7 defense. DE

    Maurice Evans (12.5 sk in ‘07) was suspended early on and ended up losing his job to Aaron Maybin who

    finished #4 in the NCAA with 12 sk. Navarro Bowman (1st Tm All-Big Ten) emerged as the leading tackler.

    The secondary is #15 in pass eff allowing 168 ypg (54%) with a 6-16 ratio (2nd fewest TD passes allowed in

    country to USC’s 4). The Lions are always strong on ST’s with our #7 ranking led by return specialist Derrick

    Williams (3 combined ret TD’s in ‘08) and the Big Ten’s all-time leading scorer K Kevin Kelly.

    QB Sanchez showed his toughness throughout 2008 starting all 12 gms despite dealing with a bad knee for

    the 1H of the yr. He led the P10 with an outstanding pass eff mark of 159.1 earning 1st Tm All-Conf in his 1st

    full yr as a starter. The Trojans run game was a 3-headed monster in ‘08 as Gable, McKnight & Johnson were all

    given their share of the carries, to keep the opposition guessing. FB Havili also became a key part of the USC

    off, especially in the blk’g & pass gm while earning praise wk in & wk out from Carroll. The WR position proved

    to have the most depth TY as Turner had a steady year while Ark trans Williams stepped in as Sanchez’s #1

    target on the year. The OL is loaded with young talent & size (6’5” 292) led by LG Jeff Byers who is the only Sr

    starter up front. They paved the way for 206 ypg (5.3) while surrendering 17 sks (4.8%) on the ssn. Overall the

    Trojan off finished with our #7 overall ranking on the ssn and will have newly named UW HC Sarkisian avail as

    the OC here. USC finished with our #1 overall def as they dominated competition all’g just 206 ypg & 7.8 ppg

    while giving up just 22 2H points the entire year! The DL avg 6’4” 271 all’g an NCAA best 83 ypg rush (2.6) led

    by DT Moala & DE Matthews. The LB corps is arguably the best in the nation with Pac-10 DPOY Maualuga,

    Cushing & Maiava. The secondary all’d 123 ypg (51.6%) with a 4-17 ratio ranking #1 in pass eff D. USC finished

    with our #61 ST’s as K Buehler had hit 8 of 9 FG’s on the ssn prior to missing all 3 vs UCLA.

    These 2 heavyweights both had National Championship aspirations throughout the season. Each also

    faced the opposing conf’s runner-up as USC handled Ohio St and Penn St dominated Oregon St. The

    Lions are excited to be here for their first Rose Bowl in 14 years while the Trojans were openly clamoring

    to play a Big 12 or SEC opponent before they clinched their 4th straight Rose Bowl bid. USC has the high

    profile players but this Penn State squad has not only won but dominated giving 5 teams their worst loss

    of the season. USC meanwhile has struggled to score on the road against winning teams having been

    shutout in the 1H at Oregon St 21-0 and only leading 10-3 at HT at Arizona. This doesn’t bode well for a

    DD favorite against a Paterno team with unlimited prep time.

    FORECAST: PENN ST (+) BY 3

    RATING: 4* PENN ST

    ORANGE BOWL

    Orange Bowl’s 75th anniversary. The Bearcats & Hokies are the lowest-ranked BCS participants. This

    will be the 9th meeting (4-4) between these 2 teams with Cincy going 5-2 ATS . They last met in ‘06 & UC

    led 10-5 with a 164-106 yd edge 1H in the 29-13 (+27’) loss to #11 VT. This will be UC’s 3rd straight bowl

    & 1st BCS appearance, they are 5-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in bowls. The Cats got their school record 11th win,

    won its 1st BE Title & will play their first Jan 1st bowl game since the 1951 Sun Bowl. VT is making it’s

    16th straight (5 BCS) postseason trip including it’s 2nd straight here under Beamer as he’s gone 6-9 SU &

    ATS. VT will try to end their 4 gm losing streak in BCS gms (last win ‘95 Sugar Bowl) & will try to become

    the 1st ACC team to win a BCS bowl S/#1 FSU won the National Title in the 2000 Sugar Bowl (#2 VT lost

    46-29). This will be VT’s 3rd appearance in the Orange Bowl & they have gone 0-2 SU & ATS. With a win

    here VT will have won 10 or more under Beamer in 8 of the L10Y. The Hokies have faced 8 bowl caliber

    teams (BC 2X) going 5-4 SU & ATS, outscoring them 23-21 but were outgained 303-278. The Cats have

    played 7 bowl caliber (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) teams being outscored 26-23 & outgained 350-332. Cincy is 3-5

    SU & ATS on grass while VT plays it’s home games on it. Cincy is 9-3-1 ATS vs ranked teams the L3Y.

    UC HC Kelly has won 3 Div II Champs at Grand Valley St, 1 MAC Title & is 2-0 (0-2 ATS) in bowls incl LY in

    the Papajohns.com Bowl. In 2007, the Bearcats capped off the season with a 31-21 bowl win over S Miss giving

    them 10 wins which equaled a school record & finished #17 in the AP Poll for the 1st time in school history.

    The Cats took aim at the BE Title & BCS berth despite many forecasting them to finish in the lower half of the

    BE standings. Kelly earned BE Coach of the Year honors. The ssn began with ‘07 QB Mauk denied a 6th year,

    which left the Cats with ‘05-‘06 starter Dustin Grutza. He went down with broken leg vs OK which left UC with

    Jr Tony Pike. Pike nearly left the program in the offseason due to lack of playing time. Pike took over but inj’d

    his non-throwing arm & missed 2 games. In all, UC played 5 different QB’s. Pike returned & led Cincy to big

    wins over WV, USF, UL & Pitt. He is avg 197 ypg (63%) with a 18-7 ratio. Cincy platooned Ramsey & Goebel

    at RB and they combined for 1,211 (4.5) rush yds. The key to the offense is the WR corps, Goodman has 78

    rec (12.5) and 7 TD’s & Gilyard 74 rec (15.1) & 10 TD’s. Goodman was inj’d in the finale (CS). The OL avg 6’4”

    303 yds paving the way for 121 ypg (3.6) while all’g 30 sks (6.8%). The Cats have our #57 off & #21 def. UC

    returned a veteran defense with 10 Sr starters back, most of whom played as Fr & Soph’s. The DL boasts 4 Sr’s

    avg 6’3” 275 led by Byrd, Nelms & converted TE Barwin, who moved to DE, leads the BE in sacks. The LB corp

    is led by 3 of the top 4 tklr’s in Manalac, Cornett & Smith. The secondary is loaded with talent in unanimous

    All-BE CB Mickens who was inj’d for final 3 (CS), All-BE CB Smith & Ohio St transfer Underwood. UC has our

    #33 pass eff def all’g 212 ypg (56%) with 18-16 ratio. UC has our #1 ST’s ranking led by AA Punter Huber’s

    44.9 ypp & KR Gilyard who avg 28.0 ypr (#9 in NCAA) & earned BE ST’s POY honors.

    VT has won 3 ACC Titles in their 5 years in the conf. QB Taylor was virtually flawless in wins over UVA

    & BC in the ACC champ game. Taylor started the year thinking he was going to be redshirted & Glennon

    was going to be the starter but after #17 VT while being upset by unranked EC 27-22, Taylor was inserted

    into the starting role but he does split time w/Glennon. RFr RB Evans has the 10th-highest rushing total in

    VT history. WR Coale is the only frosh on the team to start every game TY & is #1 in rec’s. The O-line avg

    6’4” 310 paving the way for 3.7 ypc rush but surprisingly gave up 39 sks (14.6%). The OL is anchored by

    2nd Tm ACC OG Render, HM ACC OG Marshman & HM ACC C Shuman. The Hokies have our #75 offense

    & #18 defense. VT’s D-line avg 6’2” 274 & is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE’s Martin & Worilds. Worilds has 5.5

    sks, 10 tfl & 2 FF in the L/5 gms & has done all that despite a separated left shoulder. VT ranks #19 in the

    NCAA in rush D. Since 1999, the Hokies are 89-8 when outrushing their opp & 9-20 when outrushed. The

    LB’s are the top 3 tklr’s on the team. The Hokies have our #39 pass D all’g 170 ypg & have 16 int. VT has

    a dangerous secondary as Harris (1st Tm ACC) is one of the best CB’s in the nation (2 IR TD’s) & Virgil is

    underrated. VT has our #86 spec tms. K Dustin Keys has been solid & earned HM ACC honors. VT is avg

    20.9 on KR’s & 9.3 on PR’s while all’g 19.1 on KR’s & 12.7 on PR’s.

    Cincinnati finished the season with 6 straight wins earning them the Big East Title & an Orange Bowl

    berth. This is not only their 1st BCS game but their 1st traditional NY’s Day bowl. VT has lost 4 straight BCS

    bowls which keeps them hungry & also unfazed by the pageantry surrounding this game. This is a situation

    where one team will clearly come to play while being a learning experience for the other.

    FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH BY 7

    RATING: 2*

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:23pm
16. 0 likes

    COTTON BOWL

    This will be the 5th all-time meeting between these schools (2-2 SU & TT 2-1-1 ATS). Ole Miss is 2-0

    SU & 1-0-1 ATS vs TT in bowl gms (‘86 & ‘98 Independence). Leach is 5-3 (3-5 ATS) in bowls guiding TT

    to the postssn every yr at the helm (9th str). TT is 0-3 SU & 0-2 ATS in the Cotton Bowl. First yr HC Nutt

    has Ole Miss playing in its 1st bowl S/‘03 when Eli Manning led the Rebels to a 31-28 win (-2’) over Okla

    St in the Cotton. Nutt is 2-5 SU & 3-4 ATS in bowls (all at Ark), but 2-0 ATS in the Cotton (Ole Miss is 2-1

    SU & 1-0 ATS all-time in the Cotton). TT has pulled the “Houdini” act the L2Y in bowls escaping 31 & 14

    pt deficits & outscoring foes 41-7 in the 4Q. Red Raiders were 2-0 TY as a SD fav, but haven’t played

    well to end the reg ssn (0-2 ATS) while the Rebels were 4-0 in the dog role incl an outright upset over #1

    Florida (Gators only loss TY). Nutt is 15-8 ATS w/6 outright upsets over schools ranked in the Top 10 (2-0

    ATS, 1-1 SU TY). Both tms play on turf, but TT is 0-4 ATS on grass & UM is 3-1 ATS. TT has faced 6 bowl

    tms going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS outscoring foes by 10 ppg & outgaining them by 62 ypg. Ole Miss is 3-4 SU,

    but 5-2 ATS (+2 ppg, +35 ypg) vs bowl tms. Both tms have no Fr starters with 17 upperclassman (77%),

    but TT has 10 Sr starters to Ole Miss’ 7. TT will not have to leave the state (346 mile trip), but Ole Miss

    (543 miles) will be well represented playing in just their 3rd NYD bowl S/’72 (TT’s 4th S/’57).

    It has been a dream ssn for Ole Miss as new HC Nutt took the talent former HC Orgeron had stockpiled

    and produced the tm’s 1st winning season S/’03 earning him co-SEC COY honors. QB Snead, who

    incidentally is from Stephenville, TX (about 2 hrs from Dallas), transferred from Texas and sat out ‘07, so

    he was learning his 3rd off system TY and came on strong down the stretch avg’g 201 pass ypg (57.5%)

    with a 13-2 ratio in UM’s 5 gm win streak to end the ssn. As usual, Nutt has a strong stable of backs but

    TY used speedy WR McCluster in the “Wild Rebel” formation (1100 total yds). WR’s Wallace and Hodge

    rank #7 & #8 in the SEC in rec ypg with Wallace (20.1) having the highest ypc of any of the SEC’s top 10

    rec’s. The OL avg 6’4” 327 led by 1st Tm AA Michael Oher who won the SEC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy TY

    and will be a top 5 draft pick in ‘09. UM has our #18 offense and #12 D. The DL avg 6’3” 273 led by 1st Tm

    SEC DT Peria Jerry who led the SEC in tfl TY (17) and UM ranks #2 in the SEC in rush D allowing just

    85 ypg (2.6) and #1 in the SEC in sks (35) despite top sackman DE Hardy (8.5) missing 5 gms with inj

    (still 2nd Tm SEC). The LB corps is deep and was shuffled throughout the yr while the secondary is one

    of the tm’s weak spots (still improved from #87 LY to #61 TY). The Rebels rank #46 in our sp tms rankings

    (#74 LY) with a fake punt for a FD and blk’d xp being keys in their win over Florida. The returnmen and P

    Park are solid and PK Shene earned 1st Tm SEC honors with his 3 misses from 47, 45 and 50 yds.

    Texas Tech is known for its potent off (ranked #3) that scores at will as HC Leach (co-B12 COY) has that

    kind of reputation. Under Leach TY TT featured its best all-around squad avg 45 ppg & 536 ypg. The big

    diff from the past tms was the ability to run the ball & stop the run as the 119 ypg (4.7) was a Leach-era

    high & the 134 ypg (3.9) all’d was a low. Unitas Award winner QB Harrell is having another outstanding

    yr (ranks tops in many B12 off categories) & is TT’s all-time passing leader (15,399). He broke 2 fingers

    on his non-throwing hand in the last gm vs BU, but will be fine for the bowl. What a difference a yr makes

    as LY RB Woods was in the doghouse, but TY earned 2nd Tm B12 honors & forms a great RB duo w/

    Batch. In fact when TT topped 100+ rush yds they were 10-0 (6-4 ATS) & 1-1 (0-2 ATS) when held below

    that number. 1st Tm B12/2x Biletnikoff winner/Walter Camp semi-finalist WR Crabtree is the #1 target.

    He has scored in 10 gms (83%), but has just four 100+ yd performances due to a ankle inj that should

    be close to 100% by bowl time. The OL is massive averaging 6’6” 323 (3 Sr starters, 2 earned All-B12

    honors), uses the biggest splits of any tm & has all’d just 11 sks (1.8%!). The D is ranked #38 in McNeill’s

    1st full ssn as DC. The DL avg 6’4” 264 (1 Sr) tallying 26 (87%) of the 30 tm sks. They are led by 1st Tm

    B12 DE Williams. The secondary features 1st Tm B12 S McBath (#6 NCAA w/6 int) & S Charbonnet. TT

    ranks #37 in our pass eff def all’g 238 ypg (64%) with a 16-17 ratio (leads B12 in int). TT has the #90 ST

    unit & doesn’t have a strong legged K, but walk-on Williams has filled in adequately.

    Realistically UM could be 11-1 as their 4 losses were by an avg of 4.8 ppg. They lost to WF on a last second

    FG after leading much of the gm, outgained Vandy 385-202 but had 6 TO’s, lost to 12-1 Bama by 4 and led

    SC for much of the gm before falling by a TD. Ole Miss is ecstatic to be in the Cotton Bowl in QB Snead’s neck

    of the woods while TT is disappointed as they were in the BCS hunt until being blown out by Okla.

    FORECAST: MISSISSIPPI BY 4

    RATING: 3*

    LIBERTY BOWL

    The Liberty Bowl’s 50th anniversary will mark the 2nd meeting between the schools with UK winning

    the 1st, 6-3 in ‘93. CUSA Champ EC is making its 3rd trip (1-1 SU/ATS) to Memphis and comes here on a

    3 gm win streak (2-1 ATS) while winning 6 of L/7 (3-4 ATS) despite being devastated by inj/susp. EC has

    used 44 diff starters (23 on off, 21 on def) and 9 players from the preseason 2-deep have been lost for the

    ssn. This is their 3 str bowl under HC Holtz (1-1 SU/ATS) incl LY’s 41-38 upset (+10’) of #24 Boise St in the

    Hawaii Bowl. Holtz reportedly turned down the Syracuse job but remains a hot HC candidate. UK has a

    chance to win 3 bowls in a row for the 1st time in school history (1-1 ATS). LY UK beat a susp-riddled Fla

    St tm in the Music City Bowl 35-28 (-9). This is UK’s first trip to the Liberty and they are 7-5 all-time in bowls

    (2-3 SU & ATS S/‘90). HC Brooks is 3-3 in bowls (1-5 ATS) and played in the Liberty Bowl in ‘62 as a Sr at

    Oreg St. EC played 4 BCS schools TY going 2-2 SU/ATS, incl upsets of ACC Champ VT and WVU to open

    the ssn which saw the Pirates ranked #14 in the polls. EC then lost to NCSt and VA and their BCS bubble

    was burst. Overall, they played 6 bowl elig tms and went 3-3 SU/ATS, outscoring opps 23-22 despite being

    outgained 353-332. UK played 5 bowl elig tms going 0-5 SU (2-3 ATS) while being outscored 35-19 and

    outgained 414-267. In fact, UK didn’t beat a tm that finished with a winning record TY. The Cats finished

    3-2 ATS as an AD while the Pirates were 0-5 ATS as an AF. EC features 14 upperclassmen starters, incl

    6 Sr’s, while KY has 18 upperclassmen starters with 8 Sr’s. UK has had the crowd edge by far in each of

    their L/2 bowls and they should have the fan edge here again with the game a reasonable drive away.

    EC beat Tulsa 27-24 (+11’) to capture the CUSA Title, their 1st conf title S/’76 (Southern). The Pirates

    held TU to a ssn-low 399 yds (avg 565) while forcing 7 TO’s. The D (#46) has been the strength all’g

    just 20.8 ppg and forcing 32 TO’s (T-#4 NCAA). They are all’g 138 ypg (3.9) rush and the front 4 is led

    by DE Wilson, who is tied for 6th in NCAA with 10.5 sks. The LB corps has battled inj’s, but Sr captain

    Bell has been a mainstay and leads the tm in tkls. FS Eskridge leads a secondary that ranks #32 in

    our pass eff D rankings all’g 197 ypg (60%) with a 17-21 ratio. The offense has struggled (#92) avg 24

    ppg, while avg just 3.4 ypc (128 ypg). They are avg 208 yds pass as QB Pinkney became more of a

    game manager as the year progressed. RB Whitley became the main ball carrier midssn, avg 71 ypg

    (4.2) over the L/6. TE Drew is the leading active receiver as WR Harris was lost for ssn with a broken

    foot. The Pirates have our #27 ST’s and while the P and the coverage units have been solid, K Hartman

    has been inconsistent making just 19-29 FG’s with just 4-11 from 40+.

    UK’s season has been inj-plagued with their #88 off losing their top rusher (Locke), top receiver

    (Lyons-still finished as top receiver despite missing L/6) and 2 starting OL not to mention losing proj

    starting QB Pulley before the season started (dismissed). LY UK’s offense led the tm to a bowl while

    their D was a liability at times. TY the D kept UK in gms while the offense struggled. QB Hartline started

    the 1st 8 games, but was benched for mobile true frosh QB Cobb. Cobb started the L/4 and the off was

    much more productive with him in the lineup. He was inj’d in the ssn finale vs Tenn and the off produced

    only 193 ttl yds. Cobb had a knee scope and is doubtful for the bowl. UK’s OL avg 6’4” 296 and is #1 in

    the SEC in sks all’d (12, 3.1%). UK OC/QB coach Sanders is up for the UT Chattanooga HC job. UK’s

    #43 D has also suffered inj’s with 4 starters missing significant gm action TY incl MLB Johnson who

    missed 2 full gms and parts of others. Overall, their D has allowed 70 ypg less than ‘07 and 7.9 ppg

    less and should be healthier for the bowl. UK is #42 in our pass D rankings allowing 185 ypg (53%) with

    a 17-12 ratio led by 1st Tm CB Lindley (#2 in SEC in PD). UK ranks #22 in our ST, but their top 2 PR’s

    are out (Lyons) or doubtful (Cobb) and their top KR is out (Locke). P Masthay leads the SEC in punt

    avg (45.3) and teamed up with Tydlacka for a tm net of 38.4.

    Though UK’s season has been disappointing, they are excited to be going to a different bowl TY

    (Music City L2Y), and will be motivated about being dog vs a CUSA team. The last time UK was a

    bowl dog, they upset Clemson 28-20 (+10’) in the ‘06 Music City Bowl. Both teams have numerous

    inj’s especially in their WR corps, but UK still has the edge with their SEC depth. Downgrade this play

    to a 1H if UK becomes the favorite.

    FORECAST: KENTUCKY BY 4

    RATING: 2* KENTUCKY

    SUGAR BOWL

    Bama leads the NCAA in bowl games (56) and bowl wins (31) with the Sugar Bowl being their most

    frequent destination (8-4 SU) with the Tide clinching national titles here 4x’s incl their last trip, a 34-13 win

    over Miami finishing a 13-0 ssn in ‘92. Bama is 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in bowls S/‘98, but Saban led the tm to

    a 30-24 win (-3’) over Colo in LY’s Independence Bowl. Saban is 4-5 SU/ATS overall in bowls and 2-0 SU/

    ATS in 2 Sugar Bowl appearances at LSU. This is Utah’s 6th consec bowl gm & they have won their L/7

    while covering 5 of the L/6. Whittingham is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) in bowls and has a close relationship with

    Florida’s Meyer who just faced Bama in the SEC Champ gm. UT has 16 upperclassmen starters incl 9

    Sr’s while UA has 18 upperclassmen incl 7 Sr’s in starting roles. UT is 0-6 vs SEC tms (SU) but has never

    faced Bama. The Utes played 5 bowl eligible tms and went 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS), outscoring those foes 34-20

    and outgaining them 404-346. Utah beat 3 ranked foes TY (TCU, BYU, Oreg St) plus Michigan and under

    Whitt they’re 6-3 SU vs BCS tms (4-5 ATS). Bama faced 7 bowl elig tms going 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS outscoring

    those tms by 10 ppg while outgaining them by 66 ypg. Bama went 7-3 as a fav TY (4-3 DD), but was 6-17

    ATS as a fav the 3 yrs prior. UT pulled 2 outright upsets as a dog TY and is on a 5-1 streak as a dog overall.

    The L/2 times Utah was a DD dog, they pulled outright upsets (L’ville 44-35, +14, UCLA 44-6, +16). Both

    tms expect to sell out their ticket allotments (17,500) but this should certainly be a pro-Tide crowd.

    Utah was a darkhorse in their own conference as all the talk during the offseason was about BYU. The

    Utes won in Ann Arbor to open the yr, then later needed an 11 pt rally late vs Oreg St. They were caught

    looking ahead vs NM (won by 3) then in a Thurs night showdown vs TCU got a TD pass w/:48 left for a

    13-10 win. In the Holy War, UT forced 6 TO’s and won 48-24 to again bust the BCS (orig busters in ‘04) and

    now has the nation’s longest win streak. The #24 off is led by the MWC Off POY QB Johnson who holds the

    Utah record for career wins (passed Alex Smith) and has won 19 of 20 since ret’g from inj LY. RB’s Mack

    and Asiata were splitting carries evenly until the TCU gm and both will get carries here. The OL avg 6’4”

    306 with 2 Sr’s and the unit has started 97% of the gms together. They pave the way for 168 ypg (4.3) and

    have all’d 23 sks (6.2%). Utah has our #23 D and DC Andersen will coach the bowl before leaving to be the

    HC at Utah St. The DL avg 6’4” 258 with 1 Sr, all’g 105 ypg (3.3) and tallying 13 (62%) of the tm’s 21 sks.

    The Utes rank #23 in our pass eff D all’g 192 ypg (55%) with a 14-17 ratio. AA Sakoda leads our #13 ST’s

    unit. He is the most decorated ST’s performer in MWC history, and is #1 in the NCAA for active dual K & P

    in career P and P yds. He broke UT’s 76 year old career pts scored rec’d and once made 56 str PAT. The KR

    unit avg 23.0 ypr but they avg only 6.5 ypr on PR. UT gives up 21.4 ypr on KR and a solid 3.1 ypr on PR.

    Saban took the Tide from a 7-6 record in his 1st yr to the SEC Champ gm and a 12-1 record in his 2nd

    yr earning himself co-SEC COY honors. Bama spent 5 wks at #1 before succumbing to the mighty Gators,

    but still earned a BCS bid with their strong ground game and top-notch D. UA’s #23 offense is managed by

    QB Wilson who is avg 161 pass ypg after avg 219 pass ypg in ‘07. The ground gm finished #2 in the SEC

    avg 197 ypg (4. led by 1st Tm SEC RB Coffee who had five 100+ yd rush gms TY. True frosh WR Jones

    (PS#1) is 6’4” 210 and earned 2nd Tm SEC honors. The OL avg 6’5” 308 with 2 Sr starters and has only

    all’d 17 sks (5.6%). LT Andre Smith won the Outland Trophy & is 1st Tm AA and should be a 1st RD DC

    if he heads to the NFL next yr. The Tide’s D ranks #5, making huge strides over LY incl improving the ppg

    all’d from 22 to 13 TY. UA held opps to 79 ypg rush (2. (#4 NCAA in rush D, #3 in total D). The DL avg

    6’5” 310 led by 1st Tm AA Cody who dominates the line of scrimmage. LB McClain led the tm in tkls and

    earned 1st Tm SEC honors. Bama ranks #10 in our pass D rankings all’g 178 ypg (51%) with a 15-15 ratio.

    FS Johnson was 1st Tm SEC and led the league in PD (16) incl 3 int vs rival LSU (1 ret’d for TD, another

    in OT). Bama is #57 in our ST rankings with exciting RS Arenas (2 PR TD’s, 2nd Tm SEC as RS & CB).

    The def on returns has been mediocre (allow 9.2 on PR, 21.7 KR) and they only avg’d 34.6 net on punts.

    K Tiffin has hit his L/6 FG’s but is just 3-7 from 40+.

    Utah has had a much longer layoff as their last game was Nov 22nd while Bama played in the SEC Title

    gm Dec 6th. The difference between the SEC and the MWC will be apparent in team speed and at the line of

    scrimmage. Utah played 1 top-notch defense the entire season scoring only 13 pts vs TCU at home. Bama

    battled through their SEC schedule, and beat their 4 non-conf opp’s on avg by 33-8, incl Clemson. The D held

    9 opp’s to 14 pts or less and we expect this dominating unit to take the Utes out of their game plan.

    FORECAST: ALABAMA BY 17

    RATING: 2* ALABAMA

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:23pm
17. 0 likes

    INTERNATIONAL BOWL

    Conn is is 12-4 SU in this series and has covered the L/3 incl their last meeting in ‘05, a 38-0 (-18) win.

    Buff is off a huge upset of #12 Ball St 42-24 (+15) in the MAC Champ gm. That gave the Bulls their 1st conf

    championship ever & guaranteed them their first winning ssn since moving up to IA in ‘99. This is UB’s 1st

    ever bowl gm. They did receive an invite to the ‘58 Tangerine Bowl but the players turned it down when they

    learned that 2 black teammates would not be all’d to play. UB HC Turner Gill has turned this tm around in his

    3 yrs and has been mentioned in reference to open coaching spots. UB played 6 bowl caliber tms and went

    2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS. This is UC’s 2nd str bowl and 3rd in schl history. Edsall is 1-1 SU & ATS incl LY’s 24-10

    loss to Wake. In the L/2 bowls Conn has developed a reputation as a school that travels well. UC captured

    its 1st ever share of the BE Title in ‘07 & with a soft sked expectations were high entering ‘08 as the Huskies

    returned 19 of its 24 sts. After a big win over #24 Cincy to go 6-2, Conn lost 3 of the L/4 and fell out of the

    BE race. UC has played 6 bowl caliber tms (1-5 SU & ATS) being outscored 25-16 but outgaining those foes

    322-276. The Huskies are 3-6 SU & 4-5 ATS on turf, while the Bulls play their HG on turf. Conn has 8 Sr among

    13 upperclassmen sts, while Buffalo has 9 Sr’s among their 15 upperclassmen starters. Both tms played

    Temple and Pitt with UB going 1-1 SU & ATS while UC went 1-1 SU but 0-2 ATS. The Bulls were outscored

    by 4.5 ppg but outgained them by 28 ypg. UC was outscored by 11 ppg but outgained them by 78 ypg.

    A huge factor in the Bulls’ 8 wins have been a +15 TO margin as they led the MAC with 20 fmbl rec’s.

    UB scored 28 pts off 5 Ball St TO’s incl 2 long FR for TD. The Bulls have our #69 offense & are avg 31

    ppg & 381 ypg. They are led by 4 yr starting QB Willy, who holds every major UB ssn & car pass records.

    RB Starks had seven 100+ games TY despite missing 2 with inj. With 82 yds vs Ball St, he became UB’s

    career leading rusher (3,115) despite just being a Jr & holds most of the Bulls single ssn & car records.

    WR Roosevelt leads the MAC in rec’g yards & has seven 100+ yd rec games TY incl a current streak of

    5 straight. He also holds most of the Bulls single ssn records. The Bulls’ OL started all 13 gms together &

    avg 6’4” 308 with 3 Sr’s incl RG Niedermier (2nd Tm MAC). Buffalo has our #84 def all’g 28 ppg & 408 ypg.

    While the Bulls have just 12 sacks, 10 were by the DL but they did allow 4.6 ypc. The DL avg 6’1” 276 &

    has 3 Sr’s incl DE Thompson, who led the team with 9 tfl incl a team-best 3 sks. The Bulls 3 starting LB are

    all underclassmen led by the tm’s top tklr OLB Winters (3rd Tm MAC). UB’s secondary all’d 250 ypg (66%)

    & a 17-8 ratio but has 2 players with over 100 tkls in SS Shannon & FS Newton. The Bulls have our #113

    ST’s and are avg just 18.1 ypr on KR & 13.0 ypr on PR. They have a net punt of just 32.2 & are all’g 22.2

    ypr on KR & 8.6 ypr on PR & have all’d 4 blk’d kicks while blk’g 2.

    Conn has our #62 offense avg 352 ypg & 24 ppg. After winning their 1st four, QB Lorenzen inj’d his leg

    vs UL in the loss. RFr Frazer made his 1st start in an embarrassing loss to NC & left the Rutgers gm with

    a concussion. Third string QB Endres started 2 gms before Lorenzen made a surprise start in the Syr win.

    Edsall proclaimed Lorenzen the leader of the tm as he is 14-7 as starter. He is avg 103 ypg (48%) with a

    2-8 ratio. Conn has relied on the legs of the NCAA’s #1 rusher Jr Donald Brown (BE Off POY) avg 152 ypg

    (5.4) & 17 TD. FB Sherman 25 has rec (10.4). The offense has had little help from its WR’s & lost its top TE

    Brouse after 5 games. The OL avg 6’6” 297 paving the way for 205 ypg (4., all’g just 13 sks. OT Beatty

    raised his draft stock holding AA DE Selvie to just 1 tkl. The Husky defense ranks as our #19 unit all’g 282

    ypg & 20 ppg. The DL avg 6’2” 258 with 3 Sr’s all’g 117 rush ypg (3.5) led by DE’s Williams & Brown who

    has 10 sks. LB corp is led by two Soph that had breakout years as frosh in ‘07, in Lutrus & Wilson. The

    secondary is led by All BE CB Butler who has 44 car starts but missed the L/3 with inj (CS) & FS Vaughn

    with 9 int the L2Y. The surprise has been 1st year starter Soph CB Howard with 4 int & 8 pbu. Conn has

    our #107 ST’s led by PR Howard avg 11.8 ypr with 1 TD. K Ciaravino struggled mid ssn & Teggert came in

    relief hitting a 12-13. UC had 5 blk’d kicks incl 3 vs NC.

    Buffalo is the surprise MAC champion after knocking off Ball St while Conn finished with 2 disappointing

    losses but a closer look at each team’s final games show Conn outgained Pitt by 77 yds and lost by 24 pts while

    Buff was outgained by 202 yds and won by 18. While the offenses are close Conn has a massive defensive

    edge and will be able to slow the Buffalo offense. It may not be easy to back a team when they’re QB’s have

    combined for a 4-17 ratio but there is clearly a talent difference here between the Big East and MAC team.

    FORECAST: CONNECTICUT BY 14

    RATING: 2*

    FIESTA BOWL

    The teams have met recently (‘05 & ‘06) with the road team winning both as QB Young led UT to a 25-22

    (+1’) win which paved the way for a National Title. In ‘06 the #1 Bucks beat the #2 Horns in rFr McCoy’s 1st

    start vs a BCS D (59% 154 yds 1-1 ratio). This is OSU’s 5th trip to AZ s/’02 (3-1 SU/ATS) and their 7th BCS

    app (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS). UT has one Fiesta Bowl app in ‘96 (lost 38-15, -1 to PSU), but is 2-0 (both wins by a

    combined 4 pts) in BCS gms. Tressel is 4-3 SU/ATS in bowls with lopsided losses in the L/2 BCS title gms.

    After starting out his career 8-2 SU vs Top 10 tms (7-3 ATS), Tressel is now on a 0-4 SU/ATS run. Brown is

    11-6 in bowls (8-9 ATS) & has guided the Horns to the postssn every yr at the helm (7-3 SU/4-6 ATS). OSU

    went 0-2 ATS as a dog TY (vs Top 5 USC & PSU) & UT was 3-1 as an AF (3-0 as DD AF). OSU is 15-4 ATS

    on the road including 4-1 TY with 5H LPS winners over Mich St & NW (‘08 GOY BLOWOUT!). OSU went

    5-2 SU/3-4 ATS vs bowl teams outscoring those foes by an avg of 26-16 and outgaining them 331-296 & UT

    was 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS (+21 ppg +105 ypg). OSU is 8-1 ATS on grass the L3Y (0-3 ATS in domes, roof maybe

    closed) & UT has the turf advantage playing their HG’s on it (2-1 SU/1-2 ATS under Brown in domes). The

    Bucks & Horns each have 9 senior starters and 15 upperclassmen in starting roles.

    #3 OSU entered ‘08 with Tressel’s most experienced team yet with 19 returning starters incl 6th yr

    QB Boeckman. OSU lost stud RB Chris Wells to a foot inj in the opener which sidelined him for 3 gms

    (including USC) and D’s loaded the box. The result was the implosion at USC in which OSU actually had

    the 1H ydg edge (177-172) but trailed 21-3 after having 2 TD’s called back and Boeckman’s late 2Q pick

    six left them demoralized. Both QB’s played and afterward Tressel decided to go with the frosh. Pryor threw

    4 TD passes in his 1st start and won his first 5. He scored the game winning TD at Wisky but also had

    a costly fmbl on a QB sneak vs Penn St. Wells had seven 100 yd gms despite seldom being 100%. The

    rec corps’ numbers shrunk due to the QB change. Ex-OSU coach Earl Bruce called the OL ‘underachievers’

    as the line ret’d 3 Sr starters yet allowed 26 sks (10.7%!). OSU went to a more athletic C, true frosh

    Brewster, and shuffled the line trying to find the best combo. The offense is #26 in our rankings. Defense

    remained OSU’s strength (#3) led by AA’s LB Laurinaitis and CB Jenkins. The DL play improved thanks

    to the move of ex-LB Gibson to DE and a solid year by DT Abdallah. The Bucks finished #7 in pass eff D.

    OSU’s numbers did fall in many categories from ‘07 (83-115 rush ypg, 43-24 sks) though they improved

    in forcing TO’s from 19-28. The Bucks annually have one of the NCAA’s best ST’s and this year finished

    #3 led by Big Ten leader PR Small.

    Texas had one of its most dominating tms TY & played in what Brown called “the toughest stretch in

    UT history” when they took on 4 tms ranked in the Top 11 eventually losing the last one on the gm’s final

    play. Brown is the only active 1A HC to guide his tms to 9+ wins in 12 consec ssns. The Horns outscored

    opp’s by 25 ppg & outgained them by 137 ypg. TY, UT’s #7 off ret’d 7 starters, but had to replace its top

    RB & WR and QB McCoy was coming off a “soph slump”. McCoy reverted back to his Fr ssn earning 2nd

    Tm All-B12 honors & was named Walter Camp POY and a Heisman finalist. He is #3 in the NCAA in pass

    eff. The WR duo of 2nd Tm All-B12 Shipley & Cosby are solid weapons. The OL avg 6’5” 308 (1 Sr starter)

    paving the way for 177 ypg (4.4) allowing 22 sks (5.7%). 2nd Tm All-B12 C Hall missed the final 2 reg ssn

    gms, but should be back close to 100%. 1st Tm All-B12 OT Ulatoski anchors a solid unit. The #4 def ret’d

    just 4 starters from LY but improved allowing 7 ppg & 31 ypg less than LY. UT has 44 sks (#1 NCAA) with

    27 coming from the DL (61%). That unit avg 6’3” 271 (4 Sr) allowing just 74 ypg (2. which is #2 in the

    NCAA. They are led by B12 Def POY Orakpo who won the Hendricks, Lombardi & Nagurski Awards. UT

    is ranked #18 in our pass eff def allowing 266 ypg (57%) with a 18-6 ratio (82 PD leds B12). Longhorns

    are ranked #12 on ST. 2nd Tm All-B12 K Lawrence has a strong leg & the tms 40.2 net punting ranks #4

    in the NCAA. 2nd Tm All-B12 KR/PR Shipley has a TD ret on each. UT has a solid +5 kick block ratio.

    Texas and QB McCoy are the chic pick here as their offense topped 28+ pts in every game and they

    topped 42+ in 8 games. Ohio St does it in the trenches with RB Wells and the mobile QB Pryor but their D

    has led them here as they’ve all’d 1 opp to top 21 pts and held 6 opp’s to 10 pts or less. When you match

    a quality D against a quality offense, we will side with the Buckeyes stop unit that could have as many as

    10 potential NFL’ers on it.

    FORECAST: OHIO STATE (+) BY 3

    RATING: 3* OHIO ST

    GMAC BOWL

    First meeting. Ball St HC Hoke and his staff visited TU in the offssn to discuss offensive philosophy, so

    there shouldn’t be a lot of surprises here. BSU set a tm rec with 12 wins and Hoke was a member of the ‘78

    Ball St tm that had the previous high (10). The Cards were 12-0 and ranked #12 with just 10 TO’s heading

    into the MAC Champ gm but had 5 TO’s vs Buffalo incl 2 ret’d for TD’s and they suffered their 1st loss. This

    is the Cards’ 5th bowl (0-4 SU, 1-2 ATS) and 2nd str under Hoke. They lost to Rutgers 52-30 (+10’) LY in

    the International Bowl which was also played in Jan. Hoke was named Region 3 AFCA Cch of Yr and has

    been mentioned in reference to some open HC spots along with Graham. Tulsa started the season 8-0

    (6-2 ATS) and looked like a poss BCS buster, but lost B2B gms at Ark and UH and with their loss to EC in

    the CUSA Title gm, have lost 3 of L/5 (1-4 ATS). TU is making its 4th str bowl appearance (2-1 SU/ATS)

    and 2nd str trip to the GMAC Bowl under Graham. In LY’s gm TU thumped MAC foe BG 63-7 (-5), which

    set an NCAA bowl rec for MOV. TU played 3 bowl caliber tms, going 1-2 SU/ATS being outscored 42-39 &

    outgained 457-435. BSU played 5 bowl caliber tms going 4-1 SU/ATS outscoring them 36-25 and outgaining

    them 476-360. Both are experienced as BSU has 14 upperclassmen sts, incl 9 Sr’s, while TU has 17

    upperclassmen sts with 8 Sr’s. TU has struggled on the road TY going 2-4 ATS, but they have not been a

    dog all ssn while BSU was 5-2 ATS away from home including 4-2 ATS as an AF.

    Ball St has the MAC’s #1 off (our #30) avg 37 ppg and 459 ypg and set tm records in both pts and yds.

    QB Davis (MAC Off POY) holds most of BSU’s ssn/career pass records despite being just a Jr. Davis will

    sit down after the ssn to decide if he should declare early for the NFL draft as he is considered a 1st day

    pick by many. The big diff in the Cardinals’ off TY is a healthy RB Lewis, whose first 2 yrs were shortened

    by ssn ending inj’s. TY he has remained healthy and is the MAC’s #1 rusher and gives Ball St a balanced

    attack. BSU lost WR Love, who was leading the NCAA in rec, to a career ending inj in the 4th gm of the

    yr. His replacement Orsbon is the tm’s top rec as a True Fr. TE Hill is the #2 receiver and is the tm’s top

    redzone threat. The OL avg 6’4” 293 and has 4 players who started all 13 gms and the 3 Sr members were

    all 1st Tm MAC (C Gerberry, RT Brewster and LT Ramsey). The OL has opened holes for 5.1 ypc while

    allowing just 12 sacks (3.2%). The Cards’ D is another reason for their big season as they all’d 19 ppg and

    348 ypg after all’g 28 ppg and 432 ypg LY. The youthful and small DL (avg 6’2” 253 with 0 Sr) allowed 4.3

    ypc with just 5.5 of the tm’s 21 sks led by DE Crawford’s 7 tfl. The LB corps is led by WLB Haines, a 4 yr

    starter, and SLB Meeks who leads the tm in sks. The secondary is all’g 206 ypg (57%) with a 14-16 ratio

    and are led by two Sr CB’s in Hill and Buice. Ball St has our #35 ST, despite the loss of Love who set the

    MAC single ssn record for all-purp and KR yds LY. The Cards had two 2nd Tm MAC players in P Miller

    and PR Hill. BSU avg 23.5 ypr on KR and 12.8 on PR while all’g 19.7 on KR and 6.5 on PR.

    TU has our #4 off avg 565 ypg (#2 in NCAA) and 47 ppg (#2 in NCAA), but is only avg 34 ppg the L/5.

    QB Johnson was on pace to break Colt Brennan’s NCAA record for pass eff, but threw 5 int in the 27-24

    title gm loss and fell to #2. Johnson has thrown 18 int in 13 gms, but 9 have come over the L/5. Johnson

    was sk’d just 20x’s TY and is protected by an OL that avg 6’4” 315 while paving the way for 5.4 ypc. The

    OL features 2 Sr’s and has 4 players who started all 13 gms. RB Adams became just the 2nd player in

    school history to go over 3,000 career rush yds and has posted B2B 1,000 yd ssns. WR Marion is the big

    play wideout as he leads the NCAA (25.9 ypc!) but inj’d his knee in the CUSA Title gm and may not be

    healthy here (CS). The Hurricane has our #95 D and is all’g 29 ppg and 391 ypg. TU’s 3-3-5 scheme has

    produced 36 sks (#12 in NCAA) by bringing pressure from different angles as 16 diff players have a sk.

    The front 3 avg 6’3” 292 and has been solid vs the run all’g 3.9 ypc (134 ypg). The secondary plays a lot

    of man-to-man coverage and is #108 in our pass eff D all’g 258 ypg (61%) with a 32-8 ratio. The ST’s are

    ranked #96. K Tracy has limited range as he has not made a FG over 37 yds this season.

    These are two exciting offenses with each led by a productive QB. Both dropped their conf champ

    gms and both also faced bottom 5 sked’s. Tulsa has a diverse offense with many RB’s and WR’s adding

    production while Ball St is reliant on RB Lewis. This gives Tulsa an edge scheming defensively and

    since the Hurricane is an underdog there’s great value in this bowl.

    FORECAST: TULSA BY 7

    RATING: 3* TULSA

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:23pm
18. 0 likes

    BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

    First meeting between these 2 football powers. OU will be playing for its 8th National Title while UF will try

    for #3. Both HC’s have a title under their belts with Meyer winning it 2Y ago (41-14, +7’ vs OSU) & Stoops (co-

    B12 COY) in ‘00 (13-2, +10 vs FSU). Meyer is 4-1 SU/ATS (2-1 w/UF) in bowls and the Gators will be playing

    in the postseason for an 18th consec yr (36th overall) but are 3-6 SU/ATS L9Y. Stoops is 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS

    (3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog) guiding OU to its 10th str bowl (42nd overall) as the Sooners are just 1-4 SU/ATS

    the L/5Y incl B2B bowl losses as 7+ favs in each. OU has been to this venue twice under Stoops: winning it

    all in ‘00 and leaving with bad memories in the ‘04 Title gm losing 55-19 (+1) vs USC (outgained by 153 yds).

    Both have dominated bowl tms TY as UF was 9-1 SU/ATS outscoring foes by 31 ppg & outgaining them by

    159 ypg while OU went 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (+24 ppg & +157 ypg). The Sooners have 8 Sr starters but just 13

    upperclassman (59%). UF comes in even younger with just 4 Sr starters & 10 upperclassman (45%). Overall

    there will be a combined 5 Fr starting here. Despite a strong contingent of OU fans, UF should have the crowd

    edge in their home state as the 5 hr/326 mile trip is nothing compared to OU’s 23 hr/1,451 mile journey.

    Way back in May we picked UF to win the Nat’l Title and while there may have been a little doubt early in the

    season, HC Meyer had a plan. Instead of throwing SEC Off POY Tebow out there to get banged up, he saved

    him for the crucial SEC gms and as a result, Tebow’s stats fell from 253 pass ypg, 895 rush LY to 194 ypg pass,

    564 rush TY. After the Ole Miss loss, Tebow took control of the tm and promised that he would play as hard as

    he could & not lose another gm and he led them to the BCS Title gm. He actually had more 1st place votes in

    the Heisman balloting than Bradford despite finishing 3rd overall in his quest to become the 2nd two-time winner.

    UF finished #1 in the SEC in rush off (230 ypg, 6.0) as true Fr Demps (made Olympic trials in 100M), rFr

    Rainey (beat Demps in 40) and 1st Tm AA WR Harvin helped save Tebow from the pounding. Harvin missed the

    SEC Champ gm (ankle) but is exp to be healthy here. The UF OL avg 6’6” 315 and only all’d 16 sks (5.4%). OC

    Mullen has taken the Miss St HC job but is exp to remain with the tm for this gm. UF ranks #2 in off and #6 in D.

    The D made massive strides TY especially the secondary which went from #72 with 3 Fr starters LY to #5 with

    3 Soph’s & 1 Fr starting TY. The DL avg 6’3” 280 and did suffer some attrition with 3 bkups lost in the 2H of the

    yr but only all’d 105 rush ypg (3.3), 4th in the SEC. MLB Spikes flies to the ball earning 1st Tm AA honors TY.

    UF ranks #11 in our sp tms with AA/SEC Sp Tms POY RS James who is a threat to return anything he catches

    and has a great chance to add a KR TD to his resume in this one with OU’s poor kick coverage. P Henry had

    the #1 net in the SEC while K Phillips was solid despite no atts from long distance (42 yd was only miss).

    OU has won 3 str B12 Titles (6 overall) & is the only IA tm with 5 wins vs ranked foes. OU has been a scoring

    machine TY as they have our #1 rated off (54 ppg & 562 ypg) & have dropped an NCAA rec’d 60+ on 5 str opp’s

    (35+ in every gm). Their 702 pts scored is 3rd all-time (765 by Harvard in 1886). OU has eclipsed 500+ yds in

    10 gms (77%) & 600+ in 4 (31%). OU is the 1st program in IA history with two 1,000+ yd rushers & a 4,000+ yd

    passer in the same ssn. Heisman Winner QB Bradford (B12 Off POY) is the leader of this offensive juggernaut

    & he led the NCAA in pass eff. He has thrown for 300+ yds 11x’s (85%) & has at least 2 TD passes in every gm

    (4+ in 8 gms). All-B12 RB’s Murray & Brown make up the nation’s best tandem (Murray did hurt his knee on the

    opening KO in the B12 Title gm, CS). WR Iglesias & TE Gresham (Mackey Finalist) provide excellent rec options.

    The OL avg 6’5” 311 (4 Sr starters) paving the way for 206 ypg (4.. They are an NFL type unit with all 5 earning

    All-B12 accolades (C Cooper was the B12 OLOY) all’g just 11 sks (2.3%). The def is ranked #13. The DL avg 6’4”

    273 (no Sr) all’g 106 ypg (3.2) & accounts for 80% (33.5) of the tms sks. DL McCoy usually demands a double

    tm to stop him. The LB unit was hit hard by inj as Box’s status for the bowl is ? & losing Reynolds in the RRR

    was huge, but the depth is solid w/Lewis (B12 Def FrOY) & Clayton. DB Harris plays LB in some formations as

    well. The pass eff def is ranked #11 as OU has all’d 253 ypg (55%) with a 20-17 ratio. OU comes in at just #105

    on ST & has all’d 4 KR TD’s, but keep in mind they have kicked-off 20 more times than any other tm.

    Two very deserving teams matchup and while each is known for their potent offense, Florida has the defensive

    edge. The Sooners set an NCAA record finishing the season with 5 straight 60+ pt performances but since

    LB Reynolds went out in the Texas gm, they’ve all’d an avg of 31 ppg. Since Florida’s loss and Tebow’s vow to

    carry this team they have won 9 gms (8-0 ATS) by an avg of 49-13 and that includes not having Harvin in the

    Championship gm. Florida also has one of the largest special teams edges in the postseason and it would be

    no surprise if they finish with one or multiple ST TD’s. Florida wins their second National Title in three years.

    FORECAST: FLORIDA BY 10

    RATING: 4* FLORIDA

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:24pm
19. 0 likes

    POINTWISE COLLEGE BOWLS

    Bowls are rated 1 through 6, with 1-4 being Key Releases (1 being the highest rating). Games rated "5" are considered "best of the rest". Games rated "6" are light opinions only.

    Dec. 20

    Eagle Bank Bowl (Washington, D.C.)

    Navy (+) 27, Wake Forest 24

    Rating--6

    St. Petersburg Bowl (St. Pete, FL)

    South Florida 30, Memphis (+) 21

    Rating--6

    New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque)

    Fresno State 31, Colorado State 24

    Rating--6

    Las Vegas Bowl (Sin City)

    Arizona 38, Byu 27

    Rating--3

    Dec. 21

    New Orleans Bowl (NOLA)

    Southern Miss (+) 31, Troy 30

    Rating--5

    Dec. 23

    Pointsettia Bowl (San Diego)

    TCU 24, Boise State 17

    Rating--2

    Dec. 24

    Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu)

    Hawaii 30, Notre Dame 20

    Rating--4

    Dec. 26

    Motor City Bowl (Detroit)

    Central Michigan 38, Florida Atlantic 27

    Rating--5

    Dec. 27

    Meineke Bowl (Charlotte, NC)

    West Virginia 27, North Carolina 17

    Rating--2

    Emerald Bowl (San Francisco)

    California 33, Miami (FL) 17

    Rating--1

    Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando)

    Wisconsin (+) 27, Florida State 24

    Rating--2

    Dec. 28

    Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)

    Louisiana Tech 19, Northern Illinois 16

    Rating--6

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 19 2008 10:25pm
20. 0 likes

    DIRECT FROM NEVADA

    WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH

    WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THE EARLY BOWL GAMES

    As promised I'll guide you all the way through the bowl slate this season as to what the sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking about each and every game.

    The action starts Saturday with FOUR interesting matchups. We normally reserve the weekends here for a look at sharp action in the NFL. So, I decided to devote this late-week edition to study what the sharps are thinking about the college games. On Monday, we'll pick up with another hunk of bowl games...then continue to do them in batches the next several days.

    Nobody wants to read about all 34 games at once! And, in many of the later games, the sharps are still waiting for some public action to "counter-punch" against. The story is yet to be written, meaning it's yet to be told from my perspective to you.

    Today we'll look at the five games scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. Just check back here at the website on a regular basis to make sure you're continually up to date on the betting news from Las Vegas and Reno.

    EAGLE BANK BOWL

    NAVY VS. WAKE FOREST

    This isn't exactly a blockbuster debut. But, it's a game that could turn out to be very entertaining. Navy's option offense is known to give some teams fits. Their undersized defense allows opponents to score as well. So, you often have back-and-forth entertaining football when Navy plays in a bowl game.

    The sharps stepped in early on Navy +3.5, and the team side line has sat at Navy +3 ever since. There hasn't been much action since the move because the sharps were happy with their position. This was strictly a value play at the field goal line rather than an all-out endorsement of the Midshipmen.

    The total here jumped from 41 to 43 early, with clear support for the Over from the guys who specialize in totals. I mentioned that Navy's defense tends to lead to back-and-forth type games. As long as the weather is okay, the sharps are expecting some points to be scored here. The number is low because of Wake Forest's penchant for playing defensive battles in ACC action. That's less likely in a bowl game where the intensity may not be there. Wake Forest gets up for rivals in a way that may not apply to facing Navy. Remember, this is a Wake Forest team that had a shot to win the ACC not many weeks back...and DID win the ACC two seasons ago.

    I should note that sharps are watching the weather very closely this weekend all across the East Coast and Midwest. Should it be an issue here, the totals guys will buy back on the Under at 43 or 42 and see if they can hit a side or middle while only risking the juice.

    In short...at the openers, it was Navy and Over. There has been very little action since then as the public doesn't bet early and the sharps were happy with their portfolios.

    NEW MEXICO BOWL

    FRESNO STATE VS. COLORADO STATE

    We had a HUGE move here from Fresno State -4 down to Fresno State -2.5. Some of you may be wondering why I emphasized HUGE. Any line that crosses the three, and doesn't go back represents a very strong move. Three is the most common result in football. Money tends to move toward the three. The fact that it didn't swing back to Fresno State -3 after crossing suggests the sharps think Colorado State has a great chance to win straight up. Sharps didn't go for the middle...they stuck with their full investment on the Rams at +4, +3.5, and at +3.

    The total has come down a little from 61 to 60.5. This is another game where weather could be an issue. Guys would have liked the Over had this game been played in December at either campus site. Mid-December in New Mexico means you have to see what the game day conditions are. Should they be great, we may see some sharp Over money just before kickoff.

    For now, Colorado State and the Under get the early sharp nod. Sharps aren't necessarily betting CSU much at +2.5...but the fact that they didn't reverse course tells you they're expecting a straight up win.

    ST. PETERSBURG BOWL

    MEMPHIS VS. SOUTH FLORIDA

    There was strong early support here for both the dog and the Over. South Florida opened at -14, and got bet immediately down to -12.5 The total went from 51 to 53.

    Why the big moves?

    First of all, most sharps love taking double digit dogs in bowl games...particularly the early ones. Any big favorite playing an early bowl is likely to be a good team who's disappointed to be stuck in a no-name early bowl! Flat performances are common. So, if you don't tell the sharps who's playing...but tell them the spread is -14, they'll take the dog blind. In this case, South Florida has been playing with so little fire this year that the choice was easy. Sharps took Memphis +14, +13.5 and at +13. They're hoping the public comes in on the favorite so they can get some more at +13 or better.

    The total move is because Florida weather usually helps postseason scoring (good conditions, and anyone from North of Florida is prone to wilt in the heat defensively). And, South Florida in particular is a team that can play high scoring games. When they care, the offense keeps attacking all game. When they don't, turnovers set up easy points for the opposition. Frankly, I think both of these were pretty bad openers. Oddsmakers should have known sharps would hit the dog and Over in this matchup.

    LAS VEGAS BOWL

    BYU VS. ARIZONA

    This is easily the best matchup so far...but the sharps aren't betting much! There's respect for both programs. I knew guys in particular who were looking to bet Arizona in the right kind of matchup. They were hoping for a better option than laying a field goal to somebody like BYU. The Cougars have a decent history in this bowl game, even if their fans are famous for coming to town and not spending much money!

    There's been nothing of note on the team side yet. The total has gone up a tick from 61 to 61.5. We've had some very weird weather in Nevada this week...so the totals guys are definitely waiting to see what the game day conditions are going to be. I'm guessing that will trigger affection for either the Under or the Over. Both offenses are at the mercy of game conditions to a degree.

    For now, there's no guidance I can give you regarding the sharp approach to this game. They will definitely go against the public if square money takes the game off that field goal in either direction. Keep that in mind as you monitor pointspreads on game day.

    NEW ORLEANS BOWL

    TROY VS. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI

    We move to Sunday now for the last game of the weekend. It's the New Orleans Bowl, which may not get much of a TV audience outside the Southeast. Seriously, who would watch THIS game instead of Carolina/NY Giants at the same time in the NFL? Well, gambling degenerates would....so both games will be on the big screen TV's in Nevada sportsbooks.

    Sharps liked Troy and the Under at the early numbers. Troy -3 has been bet up to Troy -4.5. Everyone remembers that Troy almost knocked off LSU in Baton Rouge. That got a lot of respect. Southern Miss is in its first year under a new head coach and a new offense, and may not be ready for the challenge that a postseason game presents. The opening total of 56 was bet down to 54.5. I'm told that's because of some personnel situations. I'm not much of a totals guy anyway...and I REALLY don't want to spend my time figuring out totals developments in a game like Troy/Southern Miss. Guys in the know liked Under 56, Under 55.5, and Under 55.

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 20 2008 2:11am
21. 0 likes

    Christian Alexander's Pick Pack

    4-0

    NCAA Football Bowl Package

    Premium Plays

    Matchup: TCU at Boise State

    Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Tue)

    Play: TCU (-2.5 -110)

    Line Source: Sports.com

    Posted on: December 20, 2008 @ 12:10:08 PM EST

    Very interesting matchup as you have the undefeated Boise State Broncos, a program feeling passed over since they are undefeated yet left out of the BCS bowl picture. Broncos fans would be quite to remind you that just a couple years ago they proved they belonged on the big stage when they upset Oklahoma in what has to be one of the greatest football games I have ever seen.

    And on the other side you have the 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs, a team that lost at Oklahoma - certainly excusable - and let one slip away at Utah - a undefeated team that basically took Boise State's spot in the BCS.

    Despite Boise State not only being undefeated but also winning every game by just over 27 points a game, I'm siding with the two loss Horned Frogs. Why? Two words, DE - FENSE.

    Behind the 12th-ranked offense in the nation, Boise State has basically run away from teams this year, putting up nearly 40 points a game.

    But the Broncos might have to find a new strategy to get past TCU. That's because the Horned Frogs have the 2nd ranked scoring defense in college football, holding teams to just 10 points a game - only Southern California is better. (7.8 ppg)

    Only three times this season was Boise State held to less than 30 points and in all three of those games the Broncos opponents only scored seven points.

    In that regard, this game will be different than any other Boise has played. TCU will hold the Boise offense to roughly 20 points, or less, and the Horned Frogs will be able to score right along with them.

    TCU is used to winning in this fashion and Boise will be in foreign territory. Advantage TCU.

    __________________

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 23 2008 3:48am
22. 0 likes

    Winning Points = 0-5

    Tuesday December 23

    POINSETTIA BOWL (San Diego, CA)

    T.C.U. over BOISE STATE by 4

    Sometimes we get to take advantage of soft lines, and sometimes we have to admit

    that the guys setting the numbers can also be awfully sharp – like in their setting

    of this one. When the matchup was first set we hoped to get T.C.U. as a small

    underdog, or no worse than pick’em, but they are not going to allow that. But we

    must stay with the Horned Frogs as the right side even laying a few points, and

    avoid the temptation to take an unbeaten Boise State squad as an underdog. Here

    is the crux of the matter – while that dramatic Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma will

    make highlight reels for decades to come, if not for those big plays at the end of

    that one the Broncos would be on a four-game losing streak in bowls, and we are

    still not certain just how good this year’s edition is. The defense put up better numbers

    than usual, but that must be factored against how weak the W.A.C. offenses

    were this season, and in the only real non-conference challenge Oregon had 32

    points, 29 first downs and 464 yards, going over 200 both running and passing.

    And it is also worth noting that Boise could net only 38 rushing yards in that game

    on 34 attempts, with no run of longer than eight yards. T.C.U. brings the defensive

    tenacity to keep that ground game in check, and we would not be surprised if

    the Horned Frogs commanded the line of scrimmage here. Unfortunately, it

    appears that others would not be surprised either. T.C.U. 24-20.

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 23 2008 3:49am
23. 0 likes

    Logical Approach = 4-6 ( 1-4 SIDES AND 3-2 TOTALS )

    Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA - Tuesday, December 23, 2008

    This is one of the most attractive of all 34 Bowl matchups including the BCS games. It is also very intriguing on several fronts as Boise State looks to complete their second unbeaten season in 3 years. Included in their 12-0 season is a 37-32 road win at Oregon in which the Ducks closed the gap late to make the game look close. Boise was in control all the way. TCU stepped up in class but lost at Oklahoma 35-10. But no other team held Oklahoma to under 35 points all season (Texas held the Sooners to exactly 35). In fact, defense is the key in describing this game. In total yards allowed TCU ranked # 2 nationally, Boise State # 15. In points allowed TCU was # 2, Boise State # 3. Against the rush TCU was # 1 (49 yards per game) while Boise was # 15 (105 ypg). Other than Oklahoma no team scored more than 14 points against TCU all season. And other than the 32 points allowed at Oregon and 34 allowed at Nevada (in a 41-34 win) Boise did not allow more than 16 points to any of their other 10 foes. TCU held 7 teams to 7 points or less. Boise did the same to 6 of their foes. Both teams have above average offenses and also each averaged at least 35 points per game, allowing for the seemingly high total. But many of the points these teams scored came as a result of defensive plays. These teams are very evenly matched and this game handicaps as one of the best played and most competitive of all Bowls. Defenses should dominate offenses. TCU does have the better balanced offense and they rarely turn the ball over, losing just 13 turnovers all season. Yet Boise's defense forced 31 turnovers this season, # 4 in the nation at 2.6 per game. Boise is the underdog despite being unbeaten and if the line rises to + 3 they would be upgraded one star. As it is the preference is for a low scoring game and that is where the strength of this selection lies. Look for Boise State to complete their undefeated season by beating TCU 23-16, making

    BOISE STATE a 2 Star Selection

    UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 23 2008 3:50am