THE SPORTS MEMO
EAGLEBANK BOWL
Navy vs. Wake Forest -3 O/U 42
Saturday, December 20, 11 am ET ESPN - Washington, D.C.
Recommendation: Wake Forest
We have somewhat of an advantage when analyzing this matchup
because both teams met earlier this year. Wake Forest was 3-0 at the time and off a huge win at Florida State with Clemson on deck. Navy was also off a big win, beating Rutgers 23-21. At 2-2 and getting 17-points, not much respect was afforded the Midshipmen.
The situationals pointed to Navy and we backed the Midshipmen plus the points in that week’s newsletter. The outcome,
however, was at the time surprising. Navy rushed for 292 yards while the Demon Deacons posted just 43. Forced to play from behind, quarterback Riley Skinner threw four interceptions and was not sharp. On the season, Navy’s run game was once again strong despite a litany of injuries
at the quarterback position. The defense was vastly improved from previous editions and a new aspect of Midshipmen football entered the equation: turnover margin. In 2007, Navy was -2 for the season, with only 16 takeaways. This season the +16 turnover margin and the 29 takeaways
were the key factors leading to success. Wake’s success also hinged on the ability to force turnovers with a +16 margin. Over the last three seasons, the Demon Deacons own a +38 advantage. Offensively Skinner gets a lot of praise for being a savvy veteran but under head coach Jim Grobe, the Wake quarterback play has never been a strength. Only three times in Grobe’s eight years as the head coach has his quarterback thrown more touchdowns than interceptions. Skinner was able to accomplish
that feat this season but in his last four games, he was far from productive. He failed to throw for more than 200 yards and he tossed three interceptions with just four touchdowns. His inability to produce goes beyond a conservative game plan as Wake Forest couldn’t run the ball on a consistent basis. Their 3.62 ypc Accu-Stat number was one of the nation’s worst and 2008 marked the fourth straight season that the Demon Deacons rushed for progressively
less yards (111.6) per game. Our analysis must answer the question
of whether Navy was undervalued in the first meeting or if the gap between these two teams should be adjusted by more than 10 points. As we see it, Wake is still the better team and we now get them at a discount. For Wake, the first matchup was a horrible situation that manifested six turnovers. This time around several advantages are in play for Wake. Most significantly, this will be the third time in two seasons that Wake Forest will face this unique offense. Secondly, Grobe has used several components
of the option attack in his offenses and with the extra time to prepare, should present a solid game plan on defense. His charges should also benefit with the extra motivation to avenge this season’s earlier defeat. If Wake Forest can take care of the football and play to its averages on both sides of the ball, the results should yield a Demon Deacon spread-covering win.
NEW MEXICO BOWL
Fresno State vs. Colorado State +3 O/U 60
Saturday, December 20, 2:30 pm ET ESPN - ALBUQUERQUE
Recommendation: Colorado State
Some, including Head Coach Pat Hill, considered Fresno State to be a preseason BCS contender. With a big road win at Rutgers to kick off the season many doubters became believers. Things didn’t quite work out in the following game as they got beat 13-10 at home by Wisconsin. Off that loss, the Bulldogs seemed to struggle
to find motivation and were never able to recover. In looking back however maybe the reality was that this Fresno State team just wasn’t very good. While Fresno State has always seemed to be able to step up in class, their failure to consistently produce against lesser foes has been their undoing. Since 2000 Fresno is just 26-44 ATS in WAC play despite posting a solid 24-16 ATS non-conference result. Another alarming stat is their inability to bounce back. During that same span, the Bulldogs are a startling 9-29 ATS off a loss. Finding motivation in the New Mexico Bowl against a 6-6 Colorado State team is likely to be difficult for any team with such high early season aspirations. On the other side of the equation, Colorado State is bowl eligible for the first time since 2005 and the overall thought is that the Rams are very excited to be in a bowl game. First-year head coach Steve Fairchild did a solid job in getting the Rams bowl eligible. He replaced Sonny Lubick who stepped down after the Rams posted a combined 7-17 record in 2006 and 2007. Fundamentally, in the age of spread offenses, Hill’s Fresno State squad lines up in the ace formation and runs a pro-style offense. The overall balance and success of the offense was illustrated by the 2,122 yards rushing and 2,478 yards passing. The Bulldogs finished the season with three running backs gaining
over 500 yards rushing and all three averaged more than five yards per carry. The Colorado State offense is lead by running back Gartrell Johnson, who ran for 1,192 yards. Dion Morton emerged down the stretch as the go-to receiver with 16 receptions for 294 yards and five touchdowns over the last three games. On defense, neither team is going to have much of an advantage. After holding Rutgers to seven points and Wisconsin to 13, Fresno suffered through a wealth of injuries and allowed 34 ppg over their final 10 games of the season. Colorado
State showed a willingness to trade points and allowed 28 or more points in half of their games. All told, both schools should be able to pick their poison on how they want to move the football. We won’t go as far as saying FSU is simply not going to show up for this game but we don’t expect an inspired performance from the Bulldogs.
Under Hill, FSU has been to eight bowl games posting a 4-4 SU mark in those games. When matched up against teams from the current BCS conferences his teams are 4-1 SU and ATS with all four wins coming in the role of the underdog. In the three other Bowl Games against non-BCS teams, Fresno is 0-3 straight up. Motivation is important and with little difference in talent between the two teams we’ll choose to back the one that has motivation on its side.
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL - ST. PETERSBURG, FLA.
South Florida vs. Memphis +13 O/U 52
Saturday, December 20, 4:30 pm ET ESPN2
Recommendation: Memphis
Does getting to stay close to home for the holidays and playing a non-BCS team with a .500 record outweigh the benefits of participating in a New Year’s Day bowl? That issue of motivation will be on display as South Florida was clearly expecting bigger and better things this season.
Unfortunately those bigger and better things didn’t come close to happening as the Bulls finished with a 7-5 record after an impressive
5-0 start. On the other hand, we are likely to get a maximum effort
from Memphis as they will be plenty motivated and excited to be playing in this game. The Tigers opened the season 0-3 and over the course of the season played four different quarterbacks due to injuries. Despite the injuries and the slow start, they finished the season
at 6-6. On the personnel front, the Tigers also have a healthy Arkelon Hall, their original starter at quarterback, back in the lineup. Both of these teams were blown out in bowl games last year, as South Florida was manhandled by Oregon, 56-21, while Memphis lost to Florida Atlantic, 44-27. I would expect that to be a part of both coaches’ motivational
tactics as they prepare for this game. Still the motivation for South Florida would seem lacking. Memphis
was 1-3 against bowl teams, beating Southern Miss and losing to East Carolina, Ole Miss and Rice. South Florida played a much tougher schedule and faced seven bowl participants, beating Kansas, NC State and Connecticut. On the losing side of the ledger was Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Rutgers and West Virginia. Fundamentally, South Florida’s biggest problem this season was offensive mistakes. They have good numbers; rushing for 4.71 ypc, throwing for 6.32 ypp and averaging 387 yards per game. However, they failed to convert those yards into points down the stretch. The Bulls averaged just 24.7 points per game for the year, but in their last five games, they averaged just 16 points per contest. Turnovers were common in those last five games as they were 1-4 despite out gaining three of those five opponents. Defensively,
Memphis is not going to wow anyone whereas South Florida boats better athletes and more speed. The Bulls however did struggle against the pass allowing 6.27 ypp. Memphis had good offensive numbers despite their injury problems. The Tigers ran for 5.22 ypc and threw for 6.40 ypp, a number that would have been much better if Hall had been healthy all year. They have a big group of receivers and the time off should allow Hall and company to reclaim their timing. In games in which Hall played, the Tigers averaged close to 300 yards per game through the air. It sounds too easy but I firmly believe this is a situation where the favorite is likely to be lacking in the intensity department. Keep in mind, USF’s season finale against West Virginia -- a game they ironically
covered -- stopped a streak of 19 straight games in which they were favored. During that 19 game span, they were just 11-8 straight up. In this meeting we get another chance to play against them in the role of a favorite. Adding to our advantage is the fact that this team laying nearly two touchdowns. We will certainly be backing the Tigers and it may be worth it to take a small flyer on the money line as well.
LAS VEGAS BOWL
BYU +3 vs. Arizona O/U 62
Saturday, December 20, 8 pm ET ESPN - Las Vegas
Recommendation: Arizona
While BYU spent most of the season ranked in the top 25, the Cougars
did not live up to their billing, losing by a combined 80-31 margin to TCU and Utah. BYU notched only two wins against bowl bound foes, beating Colorado State by a field goal and Air Force by two touchdowns. Neither of those teams will be confused with an elite level squad. The cold, harsh reality for BYU supporters is that the Cougars beat up on creampuffs to earn their fourth consecutive
trip to the Las Vegas Bowl. BYU was a good team, not a great one, as clearly evidenced by their one-point win over Washington; a Huskies team that lost nine games by 20 points or more. The Cougars were a pointspread disaster finishing 3-8 against the spread. The defense allowed 32+ points four times in their last six games and they wore out down the stretch and looked nothing like the unit that pitched back-to-back shutouts against UCLA and Wyoming in September. More than anything, though, the Cougars lack of pointspread
success derived from the betting marketplace overvaluing them after those two early and impressive shutouts. The offense was dynamite out of the gate but struggled with turnovers in the key losses to the Utes and Horned Frogs. BYU’s offense relies on the arm of senior quarterback Max Hall, who has thrown 60 touchdown
passes over the last two years. Wide receiver Austin Collie and tight end Dennis Pitta are Hall’s favorite targets, both coming off 1,000-yard seasons. The Cougars have balance with 240-pound behemoth Harvey Unga, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. Unga is the type of back that Arizona has struggled to stop all year long. The Wildcats certainly weren’t an elite level team this year, and they too struggled away from home going just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when playing outside of Tucson. Senior
quarterback Willie Tuitama can only be described as erratic; capable of brilliance or ineptitude on any given
Saturday. Running back Nic Grisby had a solid season running the football
but this offense was spotty and not consistent. It’s a similar story on the defensive side of the ball, where the Wildcats excelled against the pass, but often struggled to stop the run. The biggest question of all for Arizona is how they’ll respond to their first bowl appearance in a decade in a location
where distractions are always an issue. BYU has enjoyed much success their recent trips to Sam Boyd Stadium. They knocked off UCLA last year, although they failed to cover the pointspread in a one-point victory. Following the 2006 campaign, Bronco Mendenhall’s
squad hammered a distracted Oregon team 38-8. And in 2005 BYU covered the spread in a defeat over California. They’ve also beaten UNLV on this field five consecutive times over the past decade. Unlike players from many other teams, we can expect the Cougars to avoid the distractions that accompany any trip to a minor
bowl game in Sin City. We’ll back BYU in a familiar situation
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Southern Miss vs. Troy -4.5 O/U 55
Sunday, December 21 8:15 pm ET ESPN - New Orleans
Recommendation: Over
Coming into the season, the Trojans had lost their starting quarterback, their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers. Yet if we eliminate the Ohio State contest and a meaningless
mid-season non-conference affair against Western Kentucky,
Troy averaged over 37 points per game. They started the season with Jamie Hampton at quarterback but he was injured and transfer Levi Brown replaced him. Brown outperformed his teammate en route to Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year honors. His numbers were similar to Hampton but Brown took care of the football with only three interceptions on 283 attempts. The Trojans averaged over 420 yards of total offense per game and use the short pass as a means to “run†the football. Defensively Troy was also excellent against comparable
competition allowing just 16 points per game to Sun Belt teams. The ranked in the top 30 nationally in total and pass defense and in the top five in sacks and tackles for loss. Troy head coach Larry Blankeney has shown the ability to prepare for these big games. Two seasons ago, Troy averaged 25.2 ppg in Sun Belt play but sprung for 41 in a victory over Rice in this same New Orleans bowl. Southern Miss took its lumps in new Head Coach Larry Fedora’s offensive system but for the most part, they were improved over the course of the season. Still much of that success came from playing a soft defensive schedule.
Overall USM’s top four offensive outputs were against UTEP, UAB, SMU and UL-Lafayette. Combined, those teams allowed 35 ppg and 451.8 ypg of total offense. Lafayette was arguably the best of the four defensively and Troy defeated the Ragin Cajuns 48-3. What we do like about Southern Miss’ offense is that it has balance gaining nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and 238 yards per game through the air. They have two key playmakers
in running back Damion Fletcher (112.3 ypg, 6.0 ypc) and wide receiver DeAndre Brown (nation’s No. 1 freshman
WR 1,108 yards). Maybe more importantly than any personnel is the fact that they’ll have a month to continue their improvement under a bright offensive-minded coach in Larry Fedora. Troy is on par if not ahead of Southern Miss in terms of overall talent, but you can’t discount the lack of ability in the Sun Belt outside of the Trojans. Only one team other than Troy averaged more than 30 points per game. That team, UL-Lafayette, was held to a field goal by Troy. Our opinion is that while Southern Miss is nowhere near the level of Oklahoma
State, who racked up 55 on Troy, they are a step above a majority of the Sun Belt in terms of speed and offensive system. Additionally we won’t get too excited about USM’s defensive output the last four games of the year as those opponents combined
to average just over 300 yards per game of total offense on the season. We feel both offenses have the ability to move the ball and this one will be a shootout that goes over the total.
POINSETTIA BOWL
TCU -2.5 vs. Boise State O/U 46
Tuesday, December 23 8 pm ET ESPN - San Diego
Recommendation: TCU
While this game features the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked scoring defenses
in the country, there is a significant difference between the two units. Points allowed is a key statistic but beyond those numbers, TCU is the premier defensive group in this contest. The accolades are endless but here are a few that need to be acknowledged in handicapping this game. First off, there were only two teams in the entire country this season that allowed their opponents less than four yards per play: USC (3.38) and TCU (3.77). TCU played five bowl teams this season including Oklahoma, BYU and Utah who all averaged over 35 points and 400 total yards per game. The Horned Frogs held all five bowl bound opponents to season lows in either scoring or total yards. TCU incredibly held Oklahoma to their season low of 35 points and missed limiting them to their season low in total yardage by just a yard as they allowed 436 while Texas held the Sooners to just 435. They stifled their entire schedule yielding 300 or more yards to only the Sooners. They were one of only three teams to record 40+ sacks and allowed less than 50% pass completions and 47.1 yards per game rushing. Head coach Gary Patterson’s group owned a huge 167 per game rushing yardage advantage over their opposition. They’ve been simply dominant in every defensive aspect all season long. Meanwhile Boise has been extremely good at keeping teams off the scoreboard
but they gave up over 300 yards six times. They simply aren’t as overwhelming a group as the Horned Frogs. Postseason participants Oregon and Nevada racked up 464 yards and 385 yards respectively. With TCU being a very diverse and capable offense (215.7 rypg, 201.4 pypg), we expect them to have some success. Veteran triggerman Andy Dalton has been extraordinarily
efficient in the passing game throwing just four interceptions on 272 attempts. His running ability makes him a legitimate dual-threat and Boise did have some trouble with Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick who totaled 311 yards. Boise freshman quarterback Kellen Moore has been equally efficient, throwing 25 touchdowns and only nine interceptions on 370 attempts. The Broncos have a slew of productive
skill players in running backs Ian Johnson and Jeremiah Avery plus wie receivers Jeremy Childs, Vinny Perretta and Austin
Pettis. All five of those players ranked in the WAC’s top 15 statistically at their positions. Comparing the season-long numbers
between these teams doesn’t show much separation but thorough a deeper examination we give the clear edge to TCU. They’ll use their powerful offensive and defensive fronts along with their superior team speed to methodically control this one. Boise has not seen a defense anywhere near this class and they don’t have enough trickery to get past the Horned Frogs’ strength and speed. Look for TCU cover the less than field goal price.
HAWAII BOWL
Notre Dame +1.5 vs. Hawaii O/U 48
Wednesday, December 24, 8 pm ET ESPN - Honolulu
Recommendation: Notre Dame
We know what the predominant story surrounding this game. It will read something like this, “Notre Dame, after a 4-1 start to the campaign limped their way into a bowl. Playing
in Hawaii’s backyard doesn’t look conducive to breaking
a nine-game losing streak in postseason play.†We don’t buy into that thinking. While Hawaii was struggling through their very weak WAC schedule, the Irish were in the midst of battling the likes of Michigan State, Boston College, Pitt and USC. While the results weren’t always pretty for Notre Dame, those tough opponents should have prepared them well. The Warriors offense was a work in progress seemingly all season long. They shuffled in three different
quarterbacks throughout the year with spotty results. While they have finally settled on Greg Alexander,
the output has remained inconsistent. Putting up 42 points on New Mexico State and Idaho is far from impressive. Probably more telling was the 14-point output against Utah State or the measly 24 they hung on Washington State – perhaps the worst FBS team in the country. Hawaii really hasn’t risen to the occasion against BCS teams. They were predictably terrible against Florida and Oregon
State but again struggled to dispatch Washington State, who had just come off their only win this season against FBS competition. Hawaii also blew a lead over a Cincinnati squad that was as flat as a pancake after securing their first Big East title and a trip to Orange Bowl. At least we saw signs of improvement from Jimmy Clausen this season. The much maligned yet highly touted quarterback threw 20 touchdown
passes this season. He also increased his completion percentage to near 60% and looked much more comfortable in the pocket. He still made some bonehead throws at times but largely had more highlights than lowlights. The emergence of Golden
Tate as a game changing playmaker
has really aided his progression
as a quarterback. Tate averaged over 17.4 yards per catch this season while racking up over 900 yards. His eight total touchdowns led the team and he proved to be a dynamic kick and punt returner as well. When examined these two teams sport very similar stats but when we start to figure in the level
of competition that each team faced, Notre Dame’s numbers
look quite a bit more impressive. We don’t think the Irish simply come in and roll over Hawaii, instead we think it will be a surprisingly entertaining and hotly contested bowl. As such, it is worth noting that Hawaii was one of the worst field goal kicking teams in the country connecting on just 48% of its attempts. In a close game that can make all the difference in the world. We’ll side with Notre Dame and call for them to snap their long running losing streak in postseason play.
MOTOR CITY BOWL
Florida Atlantic vs. Central Michigan -6.5 O/U 62.5
Friday, December 26, 8 pm ET ESPN - Detroit
Recommendation: Central Michigan
Central Michigan will make the short trip to Detroit for the third consecutive year to play in the Motor City Bowl. If recent
history proves correct, the Chippewas will have plenty of success. CMU has played four games at Ford Field the past three seasons resulting in a perfect 4-0 spread record. This is a team that has been a consistent offensive juggernaut averaging at least 30 ppg in each of the past three seasons. Obviously scoring has not been an issue for CMU since Dan Lefevour took over play calling duties three seasons ago. Often referred to as the poor man’s Tim Tebow, the former MAC Player of the Year has done it again with his legs and his arm. Although he missed time with injuries, LeFevour posted a MAC best 309 yards per game of total offense yardage. On the season
in impressive fashion he ran for over 550 yards, threw for over 2,500 yards and combined for 25 touchdowns.. At his disposal are two absolute matchup nightmares for the Owls secondary. First is the 6-5, 205-pound Bryan Anderson with 2,800 career receiving yards and 21 touchdown receptions.
The second is speedy Antonio Brown who is cut from the same cloth as former MAC game changer Dante Love or the NFL’s Steve Smith. Where CMU was efficient offensively, FAU was sloppy. Despite returning every significant starter from a breakout campaign in 2007 the Owls offense early on resembled a high school junior varsity squad. Rusty Smith was erratic at best, the receivers dropped a ton of passes, the running game was nearly non-existent and the offensive line gave away far too many sacks. While the protection would eventually get better and the touchdown count began improving
at the end of the year, the Owls reserved their best performances for their weakest opponents. Additionally they hardly
looked comfortable on the road. These are not generally the traits of a team worthy of support in a hostile environment. The turnover problem remained a major issue throughout the season allowing
lesser foes to stay in games and better teams to pull away. The Owls finished second to last in turnover margin in the Sun Belt with a whopping 28 giveaways. In comparison, the Chippewas gave it away just 11 times this season. Neither team passes the grade defensively as they both allow about 30 points per game so we start to look for our advantages elsewhere. The two biggest advantages have already been discussed and both belong to Central Michigan. First is their de facto home field edge here in Michigan in a venue with which they are comfortable. The second is the very real prospect
of getting extra possessions in part to sloppy play and turnovers from FAU. In a back and forth game, those extra possessions
will prove the difference as CMU covers the number.
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
North Carolina vs. West Virginia pk O/U 44.5
Saturday, December 27, 1 pm ET ESPN - Charlotte, N.C.
Recommendation: West Virginia
This is another ultra competitive matchup in a bowl season
that features 23 games lined at -5 or lower. Each team here finished at 8-4 and they both posted similar scoring margins with UNC recording a +7.2 average while WVA finished
at +8.1. The solid 7-4 point spread record of the Tar Heels and the money burning 4-7 ATS number put up by West Virginia tells more about the exceeded and failed expectations
of each team. But despite the pointspread marks, WVU is really the better squad. Remember, most of the Mountaineers’ spread failures in 2008 are due to the fact that they were over-priced based on past reputation. This is the first time all season that they are not a favorite. Initial reaction to this game would be that North Carolina is the more balanced offense
because West Virginia is not a proficient passing team. Also acknowledged would be the fact that North Carolina benefits by playing in Charlotte. Yet a detailed examination of this contest tells a different story as there are plenty of edges for the West Virginia side. For starters, Carolina is not necessarily a more balanced offensive
unit. They have a 67.2 yard per game differential between
rushing and passing while West Virginia’s is 81.9. UNC gets there in different ways and are the better passing team but WVA owns the superior rushing unit. Digging beyond the surface and matching the styles presented here, West Virginia gains yet another edge. Their option-based rushing attack was seen only once by North Carolina and that was in their 28-7 win over Georgia Tech. The final score looks nice, but UNC was torched for 326 rushing yards and 6.0 per carry. That should be an advantage for quarterback Pat White and the Mountaineers’ ground game. The WVU pass rush could also be a deciding factor as North Carolina’s offensive line has been penetrated for 14 sacks in its last five games. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to rush for 167 yards or better and at least 4.4 per carry but North Carolina’s running game has gone south over that same season-ending span, generating just 310 yards on 99 carries for 3.1 yards per attempt. Additionally
the Tar Heels have been out gained by 61.6 yards per contest
versus the nine bowl teams they faced during the regular
season. They lost the time of possession battle by 7:38 minutes per game. Simply put, North Carolina has survived this season on 23 takeaways. That method of survival could be tough in this game as West Virginia has only committed eight turnovers in seven games against bowl bound teams. WVA’s Big East leading red zone defense figures to be a help as well. This should be a very close game but in the end, West Virginia’s numerous small edges will add up to a victory
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
Florida State -4.5 vs. Wisconsin O/U 52.5
Saturday, December 27 4:30 pm ET ESPN - Orlando, Fla.
Recommendation: Over
Despite shuffling in a new quarterback for the third time in his three years as head coach, Brett Bielema and the Badger Nation
had high expectations for 2008. Most of those expectations rested on the fact the Badgers returned PJ Hill, four big offensive
linemen and nine starters on defense. The rosy outlook was tempered by week four as Wisconsin suffered an improbable loss to Michigan. Undefeated at the time, they led the Wolverines by 19 at the half only to give up 27 unanswered second half points. That devastating defeat sparked a string of five losses in six games to the upper-tier Big Ten teams. Wisconsin did manage to win three straight in the end with a come-from-behind win against Minnesota, a lackluster overtime win against Cal Poly and an easy win against a fading
Indiana team. That trio was hardly impressive. In the midst of the ugliness
the Badgers made a switch at quarterback to Dustin Sherer. The results were underwhelming as he completed just 54% of his passes with as many interceptions as touchdowns. However the ground game, which had struggled to assert dominance against upper level competition, finally started clicking as PJ Hill and John Clay combined for 14 touchdowns and 870 yards rushing over the final five games. The Badgers scored 35 points per game during this stretch. The defense never seemed to recover as the run defense was spotty, the secondary was easily confused and the opposition quietly tamed the pass rush. The time off between their last game and this bowl game will have provided ample opportunity
to regroup but we aren’t sure they are up to the task in facing a solid ground attack and surprisingly potent FSU offense. The Seminoles present a tough challenge with dual quarterback threats in Christian Ponder and D’Vontrey Richardson. The duo combined for over 650 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. Paired with the game breaking tandem of Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas who combined for over 1,200 yards and 17 touchdowns this offense clicked to the tune of 33 points per game. Much like the Wisconsin
defense, Florida State had plenty of expectations coming into the season but was largely to blame for several key losses. The Seminoles posted abysmal defensive true rushing numbers
allowing over 5.40 ypc according to our proprietary numbers.
PJ Hill and John Clay should have plenty of success and this potential for success on the ground should open it up for better than expected quarterback play. Florida State in particular
has shown a recent trend of playing wild bowl games with a 44-27 finish with UCLA two years ago and a 35-28 loss against Kentucky last year. The perception of these two schools seems to default back to the days when they were powerhouse defensive
minded bullies but this year’s reality suggests a very entertaining,
high scoring contest that flies over a relatively low total.
EMERALD BOWL
Miami (FL) vs. California -7 O/U 50
Saturday, December 27, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Francisco
Recommendation: California
California makes its sixth straight bowl appearance under head coach Jeff Tedford as the Bears stay home in the Bay Area to battle
Miami. California has won four of their last five bowl games and all five of those contests had at least 55 points scored and eclipsed the posted total.Improving off of last season’s 5-7 finish,
Miami’s second-year Head Coach Randy Shannon makes his first bowl appearance. This year the Hurricanes were one of many teams that finished 4-4 in the ACC. Miami, at one point during October, looked to be the favorite to win their division. That excitement was cut short after a handful of disappointing losses. They did manage to beat Virginia Tech and Wake Forest at home, but had just 16 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in each contest. Miami is a below average
running team and freshman quarterback Robert Marve completed
just 54% of his passes with nine touchdowns and 13 interceptions. This is the third straight season that Miami has passed for less than 200 yards per game and while the Hurricanes
tied for fifth in the nation in red zone efficiency, they only got inside
the opponents 20-yard line 44 times. Miami’s run defense allowed 146 ypg and as a team they finished 11th in scoring defense in the ACC at 24 points per game. Miami’s sub-par run defense should struggle to contain Cal’s Jahvid Best. The super sophomore scored 14 touchdowns and gained nearly 1,400 rushing yards at a clip 8.0 yards per rush. California’s backup running back Shane Vereen provides a nice change of pace and the two combined to rush for more than 2,000 yards. Cal quarterback
Kevin Riley will start behind center. Both he and backup Nate Longshore finished with a 2-to-1 touchdown-to-interception
ratio despite modest passing numbers. California worked through some injuries on both sides of the ball this season but its strength was an experienced defensive unit that finished top-25 nationally allowing
just 315 yards per game. Cal can also bring consistent pressure to the quarterback and finished the season with 33 sacks.Cal also was third in the nation with 23 interceptions and was in the top ten in turnover differential at +14. That should be a huge edge versus a Miami team that was minus -9 in the turnover column with just four interceptions. Miami will need to make some special teams plays and avoid turnover troubles to pull off the upset. Cal coach Jeff Tedford has proven he can plan and prepare his team for key games and bowl contests while Miami coach Randy Shannon makes his bowl debut. This experience edge and several fundamental advantages gives California the edge. We anticipate Miami to continue its struggles on offense and Cal to come out with a spirited effort. The Golden Bears were 7-0 at home this season and with the home field advantage in this spot, we’ll call for yet another victory. Lay the points.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech +1.5 O/U 47
Sunday, December 28, 8:15 pm ET ESPN - Shreveport, La.
Recommendation: Louisiana Tech
In games against FBS competition, Northern Illinois’ victories came against teams with records of 4-8, 3-9, 6-6, 3-9 and 2-10. Their only win over an even semi-respectable opponent came at home on a last second field goal against Bowling Green. Throughout the season,
the Huskies earned a reputation for playing solid defense and in the MAC they routinely ranked in the top tier in many defensive categories. But a closer examination shows that against the better offenses on the schedule, NIU was far from a defensive
juggernaut. Against Ball State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Minnesota, the Huskies allowed almost 35 points per game. Louisiana Tech’s resume isn’t great but with wins over Mississippi State, Fresno State and San Jose State, they have proved to be credible enough to compete and beat decent teams. As we turn to the fundamentals it should be noted that in Northern Illinois’ five FBS wins, they averaged 225 ypg on the ground. While on the surface that seems impressive, those five opponents
showed no propensity for stopping the run this season as they allowed an average of 185 rushing yards per game. Louisiana
Tech has been up to the task this season with its rush defense, holding opponents to just slightly more than 100 yards per game. Tech’s ability to run the ball as well as contain the run should put the onus on Northern Illinois to play out of its comfort zone. In their last game of the season against Nevada, they held the Wolfpack,
a team that averages 290 rushing yards per season, to just 103 yards. However, Tech still lost that game as Nevada was able to adjust and torch the Bulldogs’ defense for nearly 400 passing yards. Northern Illinois will not be able to duplicate that passing game success. Freshman quarterback Chandler Harnish with 478 rushing yards is more of a run-first type option. He has just seven passing touchdowns on the season. As further evidence of the weak passing
attack consider the fact that NIU doesn’t have a single receiver that ranks in the conference top ten in receptions
or receiving yards per game. Offensively on the other side of the mix, Louisiana Tech is a completely
different team since Ross Jenkins replaced Tyler Bennett as the starting quarterback. A more conservative run-oriented offense
emerged and Louisiana Tech averaged 220 yards per game on the ground over its last seven games. The end result improved as well as the Bulldogs closed the campaign on a 5-2 straight up run while winning three games outright as an underdog. Overall, on defense Northern Illinois is better than most of the WAC competition
that Louisiana Tech faced but the fundamental strengths for each unit in this game all favor Tech. The Accu-Stat numbers project that the Bulldogs should out rush the Huskies and with a significant advantage in yards per rush on the defensive side they are a very live underdog. With home crowd advantage and a fundamental edge, we’ll play Louisiana Tech with confidence.
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
NC State +7 vs. Rutgers O/U 52
Monday, December 29, 3 pm ET ESPN - Birmingham, Ala.
Recommendation: NC State
This may be a lower-tier bowl game but the selection committee
got it right when they matched-up two teams that closed out the season on big runs. Rutgers endured a 0-3 start that turned into a 1-5 record.. At that point, with only a win against Morgan State, it did not look like the Scarlet Knights would be going bowling. Yet they caught fire and won their last six games to finish at 7-5. Three of their six wins were against bowl teams; Connecticut, Pittsburgh and South Florida. A review
of their schedule shows that four of their five early losses were also against bowl teams. NC State can certainly relate to Rutgers. The Wolfpack were 2-6 before winning their last four games to finish at 6-6. They ended the season with three straight wins over ACC bowlers;
Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami-Florida. Without question
both teams got to this point because of their successful quarterback play. Mike Teel, Rutgers’ three-year starter, got off to a terrible start but was able to turn it around, looking like one of the top quarterbacks in the country down the stretch. The Scarlet Knights put up an incredible 46 points per game over their last five wins. Even with the slow start Rutgers season long numbers were a respectable 4.72 yards per rush and 7.78 yards per pass. But in their six-game winning streak, Teel averaged 316 yards per game at a rate of 9.76 yards per pass. NC State can also trace its turnaround to the quarterback position.
Russell Wilson was not the starter to open the season and was injured in his first appearance. When healthy he was simply phenomenal. He earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors and was chosen to the all-conference team. Wilson threw just one interception all year and has a current streak of 226 passes without a pick. He has 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions over his last eight starts. Coupled with an ability to run the ball he kept alive many of NC State’s scoring drives with third down scrambles. Overall he means as much to his teams’ offensive success as any one player in the country. For the season, the NC State offense ran for 4.91 yards per rush and threw for 5.79 yards per pass. However those numbers include three games in which Wilson either was limited or did not play due to injury. Each team has holes in its defense as they both allowed
nearly 5.0 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per pass for the season. These two hot offenses should have a significant edge over the defense.We had the game lined at pick’em in one set of our power ratings we fully expect the result to be decided late in the fourth quarter. Even with Teel on a tear we believe Wilson has the capabilities to match scores and make as many plays. We’ll take the points with NC State and consider
them a live underdog in what should be a great game.
ALAMO BOWL
Northwestern +13 vs. Missouri O/U 66
Monday, December 29, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Antonio
Recommendation: Northwestern
As further evidence that the Big Ten is significantly down this year consider the pointspreads here in the 2008 bowl season. The Big Ten has seven bowl teams and six of them are underdogs. All totaled
five of them are underdogs of more than a touchdown and four of them are in the double digit range. In a bowl season in which only six games have double-digit pointspreads the betting marketplace
clearly doesn’t respect the Big Ten. Northwestern wasn’t a very good team this year. The Wildcats somehow managed to eke out nine wins in the regular season despite finishing 83rd in true rushing yards per carry and 81st in true passing yards per attempt. Senior quarterback CJ Bacher was awful
at times, finishing with as many interceptions as touchdowns. Senior running back Tyrell Sutton battled injuries all year and gained only 776 yards on the ground. The offense was largely dink and dunk, with only one receiver, Eric Peterman, averaging
more than ten yards per reception. The Wildcats had -5 turnover
margin and was ranked 85th in the country in turnovers per game. Despite all of these negative numbers, Pat Fitzgerald guided this mediocre team to a fourth place Big Ten finish and their first bowl appearance since 2005. The schedule was the primary factor for success as Northwestern played a ridiculously weak schedule. Only two of their nine victories came against bowl bound foes. They had a +4 turnover margin and beat Iowa early when the Hawkeyes were struggling. They also beat Minnesota on an interception
return touchdown in the game’s final seconds. That’s it when it comes to quality wins in 2008 for the Wildcats. Missouri didn’t exactly step up in class this season either. The Tigers were annihilated against the spread in all four of their tough games in 2008. They lost outright as a double-digit favorites against Oklahoma
State and Kansas. And they were blown off the field in ugly losses to Texas and Missouri. The Tigers covered
only two pointspreads in their final eight games of the season and those two wins came against Colorado
and Iowa State who combined to post a 2-14 straight up and 4-12 against the spread mark versus Big XII competition. Despite those failings down the stretch, the Tigers’ offense is extremely potent. Quarterback Chase Daniel was the Big XII Offensive Player of the Year as a junior and his senior year was every bit as good. Playmaking speedster Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman
combined to catch 22 touchdowns and 178 receptions for more than 2,100 receiving yards. Overall, there is no question Missouri
has the advantage on offense but the Tigers rarely showed much on the defensive side of the equation. In a game of motivation,
Missouri can’t be all too excited about playing in a second-tier bowl. Meanwhile Northwestern has shown the ability to keep it close and will have enough in its offensive arsenal to keep this game within the number against a less than impressive defense.
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
Maryland vs. Nevada -1 O/U 58
Tuesday, December 30, 4:30 pm ET ESPN - Boise, Idaho
Recommendation: Over
Late in the season Maryland was positioned to win their ACC division in a crazy conference race. However they folded under
the pressure and dropped three of their final four games. Despite the poor finish to the season, the Terrapins had hoped for a more enticing bowl invitation from the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Their hopes were dashed when the committee instead chose Florida State as West Virginia’s opponent. This headline explains the disappointment of all parties involved, “The Maryland
football program wanted to play in a more prominent bowl game. The Humanitarian Bowl wanted a team with more national sizzle. Neither got its wish.†The Terrapins really struggled on the defensive side all season long. Although they lost half of their starters from their 2007 unit, the Maryland defense was projected as a solid if not unspectacular unit. But in a recurrent theme the defense disappointed on the field, finishing in the bottom quarter of the ACC in total yards allowed, pass defense and rush defense. Their inability
to stop the run is of particular concern in this match-up as Nevada is one of the strongest ruhsing teams in the nation. The Wolfpack averaged over 290 yards on the ground per game at a clip of 6.5 yards per rush according to our Accu-stats. This group overcame the loss of their heart-and-soul leader when Luke Lippincott was lost for the season after just 17 carries. His replacement Vai Taua, has been phenomenal. After carrying the ball just 13 times last season the sophomore running back took full advantage of his opportunity this year racking up 1,400 yards and 13 touchdowns on 214 touches. The Nevada “pistol offense†is directed by one of the nation’s top offensive players,
the dynamic dual threat quarterback, Colin Kapernick. On the season, Kapernick ran for over 1,100 yards and 16 touchdowns while throwing for nearly 2,500 yards and 19 scores. But as good as the offense has been, the defense has been as bad. The Wolfpack will hang their hats on what amounts to FBS football’s third best rush defense but those numbers are pretty easily discounted by way of their pass defense which ranks dead last. Simply put, opponents don’t have to run the ball when they can pass for over 320 yards per game. Fundamentally speaking it will be a poor matchup here against Maryland who ranked second in the ACC in pass offense. Chris Turner may have been sloppy against some quality BCS defenses but he and star receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey should have a field day in Boise. This is a matchup where the two teams’ offensive strengths are matched up favorably against each team’s biggest defensive weakness. Those advantages should translate into a high scoring affair and with a total that hasn’t yet cracked the 60-point plateau we feel extremely confident in playing this one up and over.
TEXAS BOWL
Western Michigan vs. Rice -3 O/U 72.5
Thursday, December 30, 8 pm ET NFL Network - Houston
Recommendation: Rice
Rice was picked by most to finish in the bottom half of its six-team division. Yet the Owls surprised posting a 9-3 mark for the season while winning its last six games. Along the way they earned victories over solid bowl-bound teams; Houston, Southern Miss and Memphis. With just one winning season in its last six season, the Owls will be plenty excited about this bowl opportunity. Their opponent, Western Michigan and also ended the year with a 9-3 mark and delivered wins against Illinois and MAC conference bowl-bound teams; Northern Illinois and Buffalo. Their losses came against Nebraska, Central Michigan and Ball State -- all of which are bowl teams. As we see it, this should be a shootout as both offenses have been excellent this season. Teams and players from Conference-USA just don’t get much national attention unless they are in the hunt for an undefeated season. In fact, Rice may be the most unheralded top tier offensive team in the nation. The Owls gained 5,700 yards this season and topped 35 points scored in six straight games. They run the ball well at 5.23 yards per rush and throw it even better at 7.69 yards per pass. Like the team, Rice quarterback Chase Clement had a tremendous year without receiving much publicity. He is an excellent spread offense quarterback and has a bevy of solid receivers. Widouts Jarett Dillard and James Casey each posted over 1,200 yards while combining for 31 touchdowns. Only two players in the MAC posted equal numbers and one of them, Jamarko Simmons, plays for Western Michigan. Overall Western Michigan has not been as productive on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos rushed for 4.56 ypc and passed for 6.74 ypp, yet they still managed to score 22 or more points in 11 of its 12 games. They have much better defensive numbers than Rice as the Owls allow 5.99 ypc and 6.73 ypp. Still we expect defense to be an afterthought in this matchup. The Rice offense will move the ball and score plenty of points as no defense other than Texas has been able to slow down this group. When facing comparable speed and athleticism, Rice has had no trouble piling up the points and yards. The defensive edge for WMU is not going to be enough. Rice is plenty content to use its offense to just trade points and eventually outscore the opposition. It has worked well for the Owls this season as they covered eight of its nine straight up wins. Despite the spread and straight up success not one game was decided by less than five points. With the short price in this game we are essentially asking
Rice to just win the game. With the benefit of playing it is hometown and this being the last chance for Clement and several other seniors to showcase their ability, we’ll call for the Rice Owls to earn its tenth win this season. Lay the points.
HOLIDAY BOWL
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon +3 O/U 76.5
Tuesday, December 30, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Diego
Recommendation: Oregon
For a significant portion of the season, Oklahoma State was on the cusp of being considered part of the Big XII elite. While they earned a big win over Missouri the Cowboys were unable to register a win against the “big threeâ€. While they weren’t that far removed with a hard fought four-point loss to Texas, they were crushed by both Texas Tech and Oklahoma. In those games against the four above mentioned opponents OSU put up 28.3 points and 409.5 yards per game but they allowed 42 points and 536 yards per game. Oklahoma State is no question battle tested whereas Oregon was able to thrive with its funky offense in the mediocre PAC-10. Oregon’s offense
may not feature the high-flying passing attack of those aforementioned
teams but in terms of scoring output and yardage they are equal to the task. Still the Ducks fell short when asked to step up in class in conference. They were crushed by USC and failed to beat California in a rain-soaked game that should have favored their strong rushing attack. Fundamentally Oregon is the top rushing team in the country. The Ducks average
6.88 yards per rush and nearly a yard more per carry than an Oklahoma State team that averages an impressive 256 rushing
yards per game. Defensively the edge also belongs to Oregon
in stopping the run as the Ducks held opponents to just 3.87 yards per carry. OSU’s opponents netted 4.48 per attempt. Oklahoma State’s rush defense looks good on paper as they allowed
just 124 yards per game. But opposing teams eschewed the run because success through the air was all but assumed as the Cowboys allowed 269 yards per game throw the air. Furthermore
many opponents were forced to play from behind and abandon the run. The Ducks are fundamentally a good play as they enter here as an underdog that outplays the opposition in the running game on both sides of the ball. We also give Oregon the edge in terms of coaching and preparation.
Oregon was forced to play four quarterbacks this season yet offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense continued to prosper. Coming out of two bye weeks this season, the Ducks put up 54 and 65 points respectively. Plus we must recall that last season when Heisman hopeful Dennis Dixon went down late in the campaign the Ducks limped into the postseason on a three-game losing streak. Yet they showed up in the Sun Bowl and beat South Florida 56-21 as a 6-point underdog. This program will be prepared. While the offenses will be front and center both coaches have indicated that it will be the defense that makes the difference. If we rank these teams equal on offense, then the difference or advantage lies with the stop units. We expect the Oregon defense to earn the win as they force couple of turnovers or hold Oklahoma State to a couple of field goals instead of touchdowns. Take the points
ARMED FORCES BOWL
Houston -2.5 vs. Air Force O/U 64
Wednesday, December 30, Noon ESPN - Fort Worth, Texas
Recommendation: Houston
Air Force returns to the Armed Forces Bowl for the second consecutive
year. The Falcons’ entered last season’s game on a three-game winning streak and built a 21-0 lead over California before the hibernating Bears woke up and piled up over 500 yards offense
to emerge with a 42-36 win. In facing Houston, Air Force is again matched with a significantly superior offensive opponent. The Falcons previously faced Houston this season in an early September game down in Dallas when Hurricane Ike forced the game out of Houston. With the distractions,
Air Force emerged with a 31-28 victory in rainy and windy conditions.
The Falcons ran for 380 yards but did not complete a single pass in seven attempts. Houston piled up over 530 yards in the defeat as quarterback
Case Keenum threw for over 360 yards and four touchdowns in the difficult conditions. The expectation
in this contest is that Houston’s top rated offense will prove too powerful
for Air Force as the Cougars get redemption for the early season loss. Overachieving Air Force enters off two lopsided losses to superior Mountain West Conference
teams and will face a Houston team that has significant advantages on offense. The Falcons have a freshman quarterback operating the offense as Tim Jefferson took over in early October.
He has attempted 10 or more passes in only one of his eight starts. He does however, possess good mobility and is another of many running threats for the Falcons. This game provides an interesting dynamic with the contrast in styles. The Air Force spread option with a zone-running scheme has averaged over 268 rushing ypg. Meanwhile, Houston prefers to travel through the air, piling up 414 passing ypg. The Cougars led the nation in total offense with 575 ypg and Keenum led the nation with 4,768 passing yards while throwing for 43 touchdowns behind a 67% completion
rate. The Cougars scored at least 40 ppg in seven of their final eight contests and Air Force proved vulnerable
against the MWC’s top offenses of Utah, BYU and TCU. As you might expect with a quick strike offense,
Houston ranks among the nation’s worst in time-of-possession.
Air Force will attempt to chew up the clock with its ground game and keep the Cougars’ offense off the field. The Cougars’ defense
is vulnerable and did allow 169 rushing ypg. If Air Force can control the clock and run with success, then they will no doubt have a shot to beat Houston for a second time. But the belief here is that Air Force benefited greatly throughout the season with some timely turnovers and scheduling spots. They finished +12 in turnover margin but against the three other teams they faced with a winning record, the Falcons were just +1 in turnover margin
and they lost all three. So while the Falcons hold the rushing advantage, Houston is the much better overall team and with an explosive offense that can extend the field, they’ll exact revenge.
SUN BOWL
Pittsburgh +3 vs. Oregon State O/U 53
Wednesday, December 31 2 pm ET CBS - El Paso, Texas
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh finished the season 9-3 and for the first time during the four-year tenure of Dave Waanstadt, the Panthers had a winning record.
In the minds of many however, the season was still a disappointment.
Opening the season with an inexplicable loss to Bowling Green was the continuation of the established pattern of losing to inferior teams. This has been the knock against the Panthers and more specifically
head coach Dave Wannstedt. The numbers over the past two seasons
illustrate Pittsburgh’s inconsistency as the Panthers are 3-7 ATS as a favorite and have suffered three losses in straight up fashion as a favorite of more than a touchdown. However on the flip side, the Panthers are an impressive 10-3 as an underdog and have shown the ability to compete with anyone. Motivation can be a key factor in predicting winners in these second tier Bowl Games. With that in mind, Oregon State is probably disappointed
to be in El Paso for the Sun Bowl. With their early season victory over USC, the Beavers were in position to face Penn State in the Rose Bowl but fell short in a season ending loss to their in-state rival, Oregon. While players will be expected to put that disappointment behind them, consider this quote from head coach Mike Riley; “There will be some residual effect, but this is no time for babies. We can’t whine about that. We’re going to have to get ready to go.†Even with a month to shake the disappointment we expect the loss of a Rose Bowl opportunity
to leave this OSU team less than enthused. While motivation is important,
fundamentally the blueprint for success against Oregon State has been in running the football as they have allowed nearly five yards per carry on the ground. When Oregon State was outgained on the ground, they are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. This season they were out rushed by Utah, Stanford, Penn State and Oregon to the tune of more than 100 yards per game. On the other side of the equation
when the Beavers out rushed the opposition they were 8-0. In those eight victories, they averaged more than 200 ypg while allowing just 81. So our fundamental
question for this game centers around the rush offense and defense of both teams. And in our projections, in each case Pittsburgh holds the edge. Pitt running back LeSean McCoy netted over 1,700 yards from scrimmage while averaging nearly five yards per carry saving his best performances for the Panthers’ toughest opponents. Additionally in 624 touches the last two seasons he has not had a single fumble. On the other side of the equation, Super Freshman Jacquizz Rodgers is battling a significant shoulder injury that kept him out of the Beavers’ game against Oregon. Injuries are always a concern and their second leading gainer James Rodgers is out for this game. Additionally all of the little advantages of being the more disciplined team should also contribute
to our edge with Pittsburgh. On the season, Pitt has been called for only 55 penalties compared to the 80 called on the Beavers. Defensively
Pitt is better against both the pass and the run and with so much else in our favor, we’ll take the points with the better defensive team.
rushing and all’d just 16 sks.