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1. 0 likes

   RANDIZZLE

   I am very selective. With 40-50 games on the board each week, I typically take 5-7 games. More if I really like the board. Many of you also know that the lines get much sharper near the end. Due to the following I have, I want too be sure I have full confidence in a play before I post it. That being said, there are 16 total games this week on the board. 12 regular games, and 4 Conference Championships. More than likely, I will only have 2 plays this weekend, and the value in these is average. Nothing REALLY jumped out at me with these lines. Also, there are alot of different angles to be looked at the last week of the season. Motivational factors is a big one, and quite frankly, you never know who is going to show up. There is a possibility of a 3rd play this weekend, but i'm still breaking it down.

   SEC Championship

   -------------------

   Florida Gators -9.5 (2 Units)*

   ACC Championship

   --------------------

   Boston College Pk (3 Units)*

   *Will produce write-ups by Thursday. (Finals Week next week) BUSY BUSY BUSY!!!

   Good Luck,

   Randy

   MONEY MANAGEMENT!!! Don't throw around your hard earned money just because it is a BIG game. Stay disciplined and on the grind. Only way you will make a profit.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 3 2008 2:13pm
2. 0 likes

   CKO

   CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

   PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES

   CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS

   * - Denotes Home Team

   RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

   11 *ARIZONA over St. Louis

   Late Score Forecast:

   *ARIZONA 38 - St. Louis 13

   (Sunday, December 7)

   CKO scouts do not expect the Cardinals to be derailed a third straight game as they try to lock up their first

   divisional title in 33 years! With Arizona superior to the Rams at nearly every position, look for the best the

   Cardinals have after back-to-back losses vs. the NYG and at Philly on Thanksgiving. Insiders report the Arizona

   players are determined to keep on winning after this week until they have secured a home playoff game at their

   noisy new University of Phoenix Stadium.

   10 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta

   Late Score Forecast:

   *NEW ORLEANS 34 - Atlanta 20

   (Sunday, December 7)

   Do or die for New Orleans to keep alive its flickering playoff hopes. So must expect the prolific Drew Brees to outduel

   Atlanta rookie Matt Ryan in the latter’s first appearance in the Superdome, where the Saints are 4-1 vs. the

   spread TY. Reggie Bush got some of the kinks out in last week’s Saints’ loss in rainy Tampa Bay. Look for his

   speed to be more of a factor this week.

   TOTALS: OVER (48) in the Kansas City-Denver game—Chiefs’ emerging offense eager to face soft Denver defense; Broncs’ Cutler and his receivers red hot.

   NINE-RATED GAMES: EAST CAROLINA (+13) at Tulsa (C-USA Championship Game)—Pirates 13-3 as a road dog L3+Ys; have the sr. QBs to repeatedly attack UT’s shaky defense.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:17pm
3. 0 likes

   Nellys Greensheet

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   RATING 3 TULSA (-13½) over East Carolina

   RATING 2 BALL STATE (-14½) over Buffalo

   RATING 1 ALABAMA (+10) over Florida

   WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2008

   UL-LAFAYETTE (-4½) Middle Tennessee St 6:00 PM

   UL-Lafayette could have a significant edge on the ground in this

   match-up, averaging over 170 more yards per game rushing, as ULL

   is one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Both Sun Belt

   squads are 5-6 on the season, so bowl eligibility is a possibility

   though an actual bowl invite would be unlikely for the winner. Still

   finishing .500 would be an accomplishment for either team as both

   had losing records last season. The Ragin’ Cajuns rushed for 376

   yards to win in Murfreesboro last season and UL-L has had success

   as a favorite, while winning and covering in three of four home

   games this season. The road team has actually won four of the last

   five in this series and this could be a key revenge game for MTSU

   after blowing a lead in last year’s game. These teams have finished

   the season heading in opposite directions as MTSU has won three

   straight games and UL-L has lost three in a row. The Blue Raiders

   have a young team that has shown improvement and has been

   playing better late in the year. MTSU BY 7

   THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2008

   RUTGERS (-11½) Louisville 6:45 PM

   The home team has won and covered each of the past three years

   of this series, although Rutgers has always been the underdog until

   this season. After an awful start to the season the Scarlet Knights

   have now won five consecutive games, while Louisville has now

   dropped four in a row S/U and ATS. Louisville should have a rushing

   edge in this match-up as the Cardinals have been much more

   productive on the ground this season and also feature strong

   numbers against the run but Rutgers should have success in the air.

   Rutgers is allowing just 18 points per game and this is a team that

   has a great deal of momentum behind a veteran squad closing out

   the season. Louisville can reach 6-6 with a win but the Cardinals

   may be emotionally spent after playing the top three teams in the

   Big East the last three games. Last season Rutgers led by 18 in the

   second half against Louisville but lost by three so this will be a key

   game for the coaching staff and the Knights will enter the

   postseason as a dangerous bowl team. RUTGERS BY 17

   FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2008

   MAC CHAMPIONSHIP at Detroit, MI

   Ball State (-14½) Buffalo 7:00 PM

   The Cardinals look to finish off a historic undefeated season with the

   MAC title and winning this game would give the Cardinals a return

   trip to Detroit for the Motor City Bowl, an unfortunate underwhelming

   reward given the current bowl system and tie-ins. The schedule has

   not justified a higher ranking for Ball State but they have been an

   impressive team, coming up big late in the year against the top

   competition in the conference. Buffalo has been a great story this

   season and winning five in row late in the year earned this spot, as

   champion of the much weaker MAC East division. The Bulls played

   a stronger overall schedule this season but statistically these teams

   are not close. Buffalo averages fewer yards per game than the

   defense allows while Ball State is out-scoring opponents by nearly

   three touchdowns per game on average. Last season Ball State

   beat Buffalo 49-14, out-gaining the Bulls 507-219. This will be a

   neutral site game but the Cardinals have won on the road in

   primetime games in two of their final three games. This Ball State

   team also gained some valuable experience playing in a bowl game

   last season so the extra attention of a championship game should

   not be a problem. BALL STATE BY 21

   SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2008

   Navy (-11) Army at Philadelphia, PA 11:00 AM

   The Midshipmen have won six of the last eight games and are

   locked into a bowl game. This rivalry game has been won by Navy

   six consecutive years and Navy is 9-2 ATS in the last eleven

   meetings. Last year Navy dominated with a 38-3 victory although the

   offense had just 294 yards. Navy is the top rushing team in the

   nation, averaging 292 yards per game but the defense has allowed

   more yards than the offense has gained on the season despite the

   7-4 record. Army is also one of the top rushing teams in the nation

   and the defense has allowed fewer yards and points on the year.

   The difference between these teams has been turnovers as Navy

   owns one of the top turnover margins in the nation, while Army is

   nearly the nation’s worst in that category. Army has lost three games

   in a row and four of the last five but each of the last five opponents

   will be in a bowl game. The statis tics do not always add up for Navy

   but this team finds ways to win and controls the line of scrimmage.

   Navy has dominated this series recently and should deliver another

   win this week to close out another fine season. NAVY BY 17

   CONNECTICUT (-2) Pittsburgh 11:00 AM

   The Huskies have quietly gone 7-4 and two conference losses came

   by a combined margin of just six points. Connecticut has the top

   defensive numbers in the Big East, allowing only 286 yards per

   game. Pittsburgh has had a strong season at 8-3 but the Panthers

   have still been a bit of a disappointment. Statistically Pittsburgh

   looks like a very mediocre team despite several talented skill players

   on the roster and Pittsburgh has caught some breaks with four wins

   by less than a touchdown. Connecticut has had a lot of time to

   prepare for this game and the Huskies have beat Pittsburgh each of

   the last two years, last year benefiting from turnovers. After last

   week’s big win over West Virginia this could be a tough follow-up for

   the Panthers in a historically difficult venue. The Panthers are not in

   position to significantly upgrade its bowl status and this will be a

   bigger game for Connecticut. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road in

   recent years and has never won in this stadium. Connecticut is a

   continuously underrated team and the Huskies defense should

   perform well this week. CONNECTICUT BY 7

   WEST VIRGINIA (-7) South Florida 2:30 PM

   This game was expected to be for the Big East title as these teams

   were clear front-runners in early season projections. Both teams will

   play in bowl games but both have to be considered among the most

   disappointing teams in the nation. West Virginia’s loss last week

   ended any remote conference title hopes and the offense has

   averaged nearly 100 yards less per game versus last season’s

   team. South Florida has won the last two meetings including last

   season against then #5 and undefeated West Virginia. The Bulls

   were severely out-gained in that game but USF has had success in

   slowing down the run, allowing just 93 yards per game on the

   ground this season. Turnovers have been an Achilles Heel for the

   Bulls as statistically South Florida appears to have one of the best

   defenses in the nation as well as a productive balanced offense.

   West Virginia is allowing just 16 points per game but the defense

   has allowed considerably more yards on the year. South Florida has

   been an inconsistent team that has not played well in recent weeks

   so it is hard to expect the Bulls to win on the road. WV BY 13

   CALIFORNIA (-33½) Washington 2:00 PM

   The misery can finally end for Washington but there has to be some

   motivation to avoid the winless season. California can not really

   improve its bowl stock with a win but this actually is a revenge game

   after losing 37-23 last season in Seattle. Cal is 6-0 S/U and ATS this

   season and avoiding another poor finish to the season should be a

   priority for the Bears. Cal has been a great ATS team this season at

   8-3 while Washington has only covered once all season long. The

   California offense has not been exceptionally productive this

   season, averaging significantly less yardage per game than any of

   the past five seasons. The Washington defense has been horrible

   this season, allowing 37 points per game but California may not

   have enough production to cover such a huge spot. No one feels

   great about backing a winless team but the value is there and Cal

   has averaged just 32 points per game while surrendering at least 14

   points in seven straight games. CAL BY 24

   Usc (-30) UCLA 3:30 PM

   Everything has fallen together for USC and the Trojans still have an

   outside shot at finding the BCS championship game but at worst can

   lock up a Rose Bowl spot with a win this week. UCLA has

   historically been an incredible home underdog and this situation is

   eerily similar to 2006 when USC had lost to only Oregon State

   before being upset against UCLA at the end of the year and getting

   knocked out of the BCS championship picture. USC owns incredibly

   dominant numbers on defense, allowing just fewer than eight points

   per game and only 210 yards per game. UCLA has solid defensive

   numbers but offense has struggled this season. The Bruins have

   one of the worst turnover margins in the nation but the road team

   has won each of the last three meetings. Last season USC won just

   24-7 but completely dominated the yardage numbers. USC is just 2-

   7 ATS in the last nine meetings on the road in this series and being

   in a position where the Trojans are at the mercy of voters makes for

   some distractions this week. USC BY 21

   ARIZONA (-10½) Arizona State 7:00 PM

   The Sun Devils have been one of the most disappointing teams in

   the nation as many expected this team to contend for the Pac-10

   title. The Wildcats have been accustomed to disappointing seasons

   but this year Arizona broke through to reach bowl eligibility for the

   first time since 1998. Arizona is averaging 37 points scored per

   game but those numbers are a bit inflated based on a few blowout

   wins. The Wildcats have now lost three of the last four games and

   only one win this season came against a winning team. Arizona

   State has plenty to play for as a three-game win streak quietly has

   the Sun Devils back in the mix for a possible bowl game. The Sun

   Devil defense has allowed just 28 points in the last three games and

   ASU has won each of the last three meetings in this series by

   narrow margins. There is more at stake for Arizona State and given

   the close recent history of this series the underdog looks promising

   as these teams have had very similar results. ASU BY 3

   Cincinnati (-7½) HAWAII 10:30 PM

   The Bearcats have locked up the Big East title and a trip to the BCS.

   This game is meaningless for Cincinnati and it is tough to envision a

   focused effort coming off such a great moment for the program,

   particularly taking the long trip to Hawaii. The Warriors have won the

   games they needed to make a bowl appearance and Hawaii has

   now won six of the last eight games while scoring over 33 points per

   game over the last five weeks. Hawaii has won five of the last seven

   home finales, typically playing major conference teams at the end of

   the year. Hawaii is also 15-7 in the last 22 games as home

   underdogs. Cincinnati lacks a great running game so this will not be

   a match-up where the Bearcats can just pound away and expect to

   be successful. Cincinnati has won five games by eight points or

   fewer so blowouts have not been common. CINCY BY 6

   TROY (-11) Arkansas State 6:00 PM

   Troy can lock up the Sun Belt title with a win this week but this is a

   big game for Arkansas State as well. The Red Wolves can force a

   potential three-way tie for the Sun Belt title or even win the

   conference outright if UL-Lafayette should lose earlier in the week.

   Troy shutout Arkansas State last season but historically has

   struggled in this series. Arkansas State owns superior rushing

   numbers and the defensive statistics are pretty close between these

   teams. Arkansas State has just had 12 turnovers on the season, one

   of the lowest numbers in the nation and a strong rushing team that

   takes care of the ball could have upset potential. Arkansas State can

   overcome a tough home field and play well. TROY BY 4

   FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-7) W. Kentucky 6:00 PM

   Last week’s rivalry game loss will likely take a toll for the Panthers

   this week. FIU lost 57-50 in overtime against Florida Atlantic in a

   game where the Panthers blew a 14-point lead in the final three

   minutes. This is the final transition game for Western Kentucky as

   the Hilltoppers will be a full Sun Belt member next season. Western

   Kentucky has not been able to beat any current Sun Belt teams this

   season but most games have been competitive as defense has

   been solid. Florida International has four wins on the season but the

   Panthers are in a tough spot this week and can no longer reach

   .500. These teams played a very close game in 2005 and this may

   be Western’s best shot for a FBS win. FIU BY 10

   CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP at Tulsa, OK

   TULSA (-13½) East Carolina 11:00 AM

   It was a struggle but Tulsa locked up a 7-1 conference record and

   hosts the championship game by virtue of the head-to-head win over

   Rice. These teams did not meet in the regular season but last

   season Tulsa beat ECU 31-10. Tulsa played in this game last

   season but lost and this will be a great opportunity, playing at home

   where the Golden Hurricane has dominated this season. Tulsa has

   outscored opponents 363-137 in six home games this season,

   covering in all five lined games. East Carolina grabbed headlines

   early in the year but in reality won this division by default as no other

   team finished above .500 in conference play. The Pirates won four

   conference games by just four points or less including two in OT, so

   the 8-4 record could easily have been worse. The East Carolina

   offense is averaging just 23 points per game and although the

   defense has the best numbers in C-USA the Pirates have been

   vulnerable against strong passing teams. TULSA BY 21

   ACC CHAMPIONSHIP at Tampa, FL

   Virginia Tech (PK) Boston College 3:00 PM

   These teams met last season in the ACC championship and

   although neither appears to be as strong as last season both

   managed to pull out division wins through tie-breakers in the tightly

   packed ACC. Boston College won the regular season meeting 28-23

   despite a big edge on the ground for the Hokies. Despite losing its

   QB and facing a tough closing schedule BC rallied off four

   consecutive wins. It is no coincidence that the two championship

   representatives feature the top two defenses in the ACC. Virginia

   Tech has not topped 23 points scored in any of the last six games

   and it will be tough for the Hokies to put up big numbers in this

   match-up as the BC rush defense is among the best in the nation.

   Boston College has had great success in this series and the Hokies

   have not been strong favorites. Look for BC to find a way to win and

   take the championship this season. BC BY 3

   SEC CHAMPIONSHIP at Atlanta, GA

   Florida (-10) Alabama 3:00 PM

   Both teams continue to cruise as Alabama completed an undefeated

   regular season and Florida has just a single one-point loss on the

   resume. Florida owns the top turnover margin in the nation which

   has helped pad leads in several games and the Gators have

   outscored opponents by an average of 24 points per game. The

   Alabama defense has been dominant this season, allowing just 11½

   points per game and less than 250 yards per game. The Alabama

   offense is not as flashy and does not put up huge numbers , but the

   Tide take great care of the ball and dominate the line of scrimmage.

   The winner of this game will surely make a trip to the BCS

   championship game and give the SEC a shot at a third consecutive

   title. The Gators are heavy favorites here based the big numbers

   and the incredible ATS record but Alabama has yet to be beaten

   and the Tide should not be doubted here. Alabama has covered in

   each of the last five meetings and has proven that they can win

   close games with several narrow wins this season. ALABAMA BY 3

   BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP at Kansas City, MO

   Oklahoma (-15½) Missouri 7:00 PM

   The Tigers were a bit flat last week having already clinched this spot

   and having played in this stadium last week could be an advantage

   along with the already more favorable location. Missouri lost last

   week despite an over 3-to-1 rushing advantage as early turnovers

   dug a hole and a late Kansas rally provided the stunning upset late.

   There will be significant distractions for Oklahoma as many will

   question whether or not they deserve to be in this game and the

   assumption that the Big 12 South winner will go to the BCS title

   game could be dangerous as Missouri can score points in a hurry.

   Oklahoma’s offense scored at will last week but the defense allowed

   41 points as OSU went down the field with ease until a few late

   turnovers created a misleading final margin. As much as Missouri’s

   defense has been maligned the unit has better scoring defense

   numbers than Oklahoma and the Sooners padded its stats playing

   1-11 FCS Chattanooga and 0-11 Washington. Oklahoma allowed

   over 30 points per game in Big 12 play and Missouri will score points

   in this match-up. The Sooners should pull away but OU has a long

   recent history of choking in these types of games. OU BY 10

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:18pm
4. 0 likes

   Nellys Greensheet

   RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-4½) over Seattle

   RATING 4 DALLAS (+3) over Pittsburgh

   RATING 3 ATLANTA (+3) over New Orleans

   RATING 2 NY GIANTS (-9) over Philadelphia

   RATING 1 KANSAS CITY (+9) over Denver

   THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2008

   SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland (43½) 7:15 PM

   The Chargers have now lost five of the past six games with only a onepoint

   win over Kansas City mixed in. In fairness the Chargers have

   played close against quality teams in that span and have not lost by

   double-digits in any game all season. San Diego has not been able to

   close out games with several leads being taken away in the closing

   minutes. The Chargers have covered in ten of the last eleven against

   Oakland however and the Raiders offense has really struggled to

   consistently score points. CHARGERS BY 13

   SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2008

   INDIANAPOLIS (-13½) Cincinnati (42½) 12:00 PM

   The Bengals have really struggled on offense in recent weeks, scoring

   just 26 points in the last three games. Those games came against three

   of the best defenses in the league however and the Bengals might have

   more success against the Colts. Indianapolis has won five consecutive

   games but the largest margin of victory was just six points. The Colts

   have covered in just one of five home games this season and the

   Bengals might be able to hang around this week. COLTS BY 7

   CHICAGO (NL) Jacksonville 12:00 PM

   The Jaguars face a short week coming off Monday ’s game and the

   Bears face some pressure, falling a game back in the NFC North

   standings after last week’s loss. Chicago has had several great

   defensive games and several lousy efforts so it is hard to figure which

   team will show up. Cold weather in Chicago could be a problem for the

   Jaguars and the Bears need this win more. BEARS BY 7

   GREEN BAY (NL) Houston 12:00 PM

   The Packers face long odds in the NFC North despite going 13-3 last

   season for a commanding division win. Many point to the QB change as

   the difference but the defense has not been as strong and the running

   game that got on a roll late last year has not shown up outside of a few

   games. The Texans are a better team than the record indicates but a

   tough schedule dug an early hole and the defense has not been able to

   get key stops. The Packers should have an edge in this match-up and

   can stay alive in the division race. PACKERS BY 7

   TENNESSEE (-13½) Cleveland (37½) 12:00 PM

   The Browns appear to be down to QB Dorsey and a rough season

   continues in Cleveland with another narrow loss. The Titans bounced

   back in a big way last week to crush Detroit but that was the first doubledigit

   win in the last five weeks for Tennessee. This line will be inflated

   with the QB situation but the Cleveland defense has shown some

   improvement in recent weeks and Tennessee has been held to 24 or

   fewer points in four of the last five. TITANS BY 10

   Minnesota (-9½) DETROIT 12:00 PM

   Although the Vikings have a lot of talented players they have the feel of

   a team that could lose to a 0-12 team. Minnesota has had horrible

   numbers in recent years as a road favorite and Minnesota has caught

   good fortune in several wins this season. Detroit is a risky team to back

   but this will be the best opportunity to break the streak and Lions

   probably should have beat Minnesota when the teams met earlier this

   season, hurt significantly by a questionable late penalty. VIKINGS BY 3

   BALTIMORE (NL) Washington 7:15 PM

   The Ravens continue to roll with another impressive win last week.

   Baltimore has won and covered in four of five home games this season.

   Washington has lost three of the last four games to fall out of the playoff

   picture this week and with three of the last four on the road the Redskins

   appear to be likely to miss out. The Baltimore defense has its swagger

   back, averaging just 253 yards allowed per game with equally

   impressive numbers against the run and pass but Baltimore’s offense

   has struggled. The impressive numbers in recent weeks were set-up by

   the defense and Washington needs to win this game. REDSKINS BY 4

   NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) Philadelphia (44½) 12:00 PM

   The Eagles stayed alive with a huge Thanksgiving win last week and this

   will be the make-or-break game for the Philadelphia season. New York

   won the first meeting by just five points but the game was not as close

   as the final outcome. Although Philadelphia has had a few extra days to

   ready for this game the Eagles have not proven reliable and the

   mistakes on offense and the lack of a short-yardage running game has

   been a major problem. New York continues to dominate, with seven

   consecutive wins and covers in the last seven weeks. GIANTS BY 14

   NEW ORLEANS (-3) Atlanta (52½) 12:00 PM

   The Saints have the most productive offense in the NFL but New

   Orleans becomes one-dimensional quickly and Atlanta dominated the

   Saints the first time these teams met, just a month ago. The Saints have

   not had great success at home in recent years and New Orleans

   continues to be an overvalued team on the big score potential. The

   Saints were lucky to cover last week and recent wins over Green Bay

   and San Diego are not as impressive as once thought. FALCONS BY 3

   New York Jets (-4) SAN FRANCISCO (44½) 3:05 PM

   The Jets face long travel but after an ugly performance last week this

   becomes a critical game for New York. San Francisco surprised the Bills

   last week but ten points and a significant yardage disadvantage in the

   game is not encouraging although QB Hill has managed to avoid killer

   turnovers for the most part since taking over. New York is very good at

   stopping the run and the Jets should be able to deliver despite facing

   cross country travel. JETS BY 7

   Buffalo (-1) Miami (42½) @Toronto, Canada 3:05 PM

   The Bills lost QB Edwards last week and managed just three points on

   350 yards. Buffalo is not a team that can win unless it creates some

   scoring on defense or special teams. Miami pulled out another narrow

   win over a losing team but the bottom line is that the Dolphins are

   delivering victories and the schedule has set-up nicely for a strong finish.

   Miami should have a more favorable situation than if this game was in

   Buffalo and last week’s loss was emotionally crippling for a Bills team

   that is now almost officially eliminated. DOLPHINS BY 3

   DENVER (-9) Kansas City (47) 3:05 PM

   The Broncos put up big numbers and capitalized on turnovers last week

   for a huge win that essentially has locked up the division title. The

   Broncos have been far from an impressive team however and the recent

   records at home are incredibly bad with just two covers in the last 17 as

   home favorites. Kansas City has shown some promise on offense in

   recent weeks and the Chiefs beat Denver earlier this season. The

   Broncos make too many mistakes and have too poor of a defense to

   trust as a significant favorite. BRONCOS BY 3

   ARIZONA (-13½) St. Louis (48½) 3:15 PM

   The Cardinals have become complacent with the division locked up but

   after back-to-back ugly losses against NFC East teams Arizona needs to

   deliver a strong outing to get some momentum back. The Cardinals beat

   the Rams badly a few weeks back but St. Louis should have a more

   complete squad with key players back in action. If turnovers are avoided

   the Rams can be a competitive team and Arizona has a history of poor

   late season play when expectations grow. CARDS BY 7

   PITTSBURGH (-3) Dallas (41½) 3:15 PM

   The Cowboys can get back its status as an elite team with a win this

   week but this is a critical game as the Cowboys would not be in the

   playoffs if everything was settled right now. Pittsburgh delivered an

   impressive win in a big game last week but Pittsburgh has not fared well

   as a home favorite. The Dallas defense has stepped up in recent weeks

   and the Steelers might get beat at their own game. COWBOYS BY 7

   New England (-4½) SEATTLE (43) 3:05 PM

   The Patriots knew QB Cassel would have some games like that but this

   should be an opportunity for New England to get right back on track.

   Seattle has not been competitive in many games this season and has

   lost to two AFC East teams already this season. The great home field

   edge has been lost in season that has gone wrong and New England

   has not lost back-to-back games all year. PATRIOTS BY 14

   MONDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2008

   CAROLINA (-3) Tampa Bay (38) 7:35 PM

   This is a huge game in the NFC South as the winner will have the inside

   track to the playoffs and a likely #2 seed. Both teams needed late a late

   rally last week but both teams continue to get the job done with solid

   running games and good, opportunistic defense. The Panthers have not

   lost at home this season and were soundly beat in Tampa Bay earlier

   this year. Tampa Bay has struggled against mediocre teams despite the

   four-game win streak and Carolina can take revenge. PANTHERS BY

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:19pm
5. 0 likes

   Pointwise Football Dec. 3--8

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   College Key Selections

   2--RUTGERS over Louisville 41-14

   3--OKLAHOMA over Missouri 51-24

   4--BALL STATE over Buffalo 45-20

   THURSDAY

   RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 14 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Five straight wins for Knights,

   who are +68 pts ATS over that span, with a 181-70 pt edge, & Teel at 13 TDs in

   last 4. Four straight losses for faltering Cards (14 TOs), losing their last RG by

   28 pts ATS. Carpenter just 15/15 for the season. Revenge for LY's heartbreak.

   FRIDAY

   MAC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Ford Field, Detroit

   BALL STATE 45 - Buffalo 20 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- No questioning huge leaps UB

   has taken under Gill. In off having 5-game run snapped. Willy: 22/5; Starks:

   1,208 RYs; WR Roosevelt, etc. But perfect Cards own Bulls (Wise Points), &

   have 506-125 RY edge last 2 gms. Davis (25/6); Lewis (1,570 RYs) do it again.

   SATURDAY

   Navy 27 - Army 24 - (12:00 - @ Philadelphia - CBS) -- Mids have had their way

   with Cadets of late (2,126-572 RY edge last 6), but just 11 & 15 FDs for Navy

   last 2 games, while allowing 230+ RYs in 3 of last 6 games, & ranking 70th on

   "D". Army +80½ pts ATS last 8 games, with 1,106 RYs for Mooney last 7 tilts.

   Pittsburgh 24 - CONNECTICUT 22 - (12:00 - ESPN2) -- Check Huskies' last 2

   HGs: 26½ pt cover, & 19½ pt ATS loss. And have topped 168 RYs in just 1 of

   last 6 games. Worth noting, as Pitt allowing <100 RYs in 3 of last 5 games.

   Panthers at 32 ppg last 8, & McCoy in off career-high 183 RYs. To the wire.

   WEST VIRGINIA 31 - South Florida 20 - (3:30 - ESPN2) -- First dog role for

   Bulls in last 22 starts, & deservedly so, as they're averaging 14 ppg in last 3

   outings, with Grothe just 15/12 for the year. Mounties were mauled LY, & in off

   losing in final minute. Overland game is sporadic, but just can't pull SF lever.

   CALIFORNIA 52 - Washington 7 - (3:00) -- Just 13, 11, 17 FDs for Bears in last

   3 outings, but they are splendid at home (6-0 ATS lately). Check 7.6-3.3 ypr

   edge over Stanford, which entered at 234 RYpg in previous 8 tilts. Swan song

   for Willingham, as winless UW has allowed 40 ppg in its last 13 lined games.

   SO CALIFORNIA 41 - Ucla 10 - (4:30 - ABC) -- No "O" TDs allowed by Bruins

   in 34-9 loss to ArizSt. Entered that one off 260, 164, 216, 153 RY deficits in

   previous 4 games. And Craft at 7/19 for the year. Won't compete here. USC

   has 310-49 pt edge since its lone loss, & allowed just 4 FDs in wipeout of Irish.

   ARIZONA 31 - Arizona State 10 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Yes, we know the series dog

   has been "money", but Suns just can't move it. Managed 10 FDs, 21 RYs, &

   122 TYs vs Ucla, & are at 62 RYpg eliminating Wash & WashSt. Rested &

   balanced 'Cats own 26th best "D", & are averaging 38 ppg. Throw in revenge.

   Cincinnati 41 - HAWAII 17 - (11:30) -- Cincy now BigEast champ, its first league

   title since taking MissouriValley in 1964. Five straight wins, & in off 25-8 FD

   edge. 'Bows off lackluster win over horrid WashSt, managing a 10-10 tie over

   the last 3 quarters. C'mon! Can't run, & Alexander won't do much vs this "D".

   CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

   TULSA 48 - East Carolina 24 - (12:00 - ESPN) -- Check resurgent Pirates' with

   6 TDs in 53-21 blowout of Utep, after managing just 4 TDs in their previous 4

   contests, & entered ranked 94th in rushing "O". Are premier RDs (14-4 ATS),

   but note the 'Canes scoring 56, 56, 63, 77, 49, & 56 pts in covering their last 6

   HGs. Check Johnson at 42 TD passes TY, & ECU has yet to cover on the road.

   ACC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

   Virginia Tech 22 - Boston College 17 - (1:00 - ABC) -- These 2 meet for the

   4th time in the last 2 years, with the Eagles taking both regular season games,

   but the Hokies prevailing in LY's title match. Tech didn't manage an offensive TD

   in their 1st meeting, & not the most explosive squad (#83 in scoring), but that "D"

   still solid. BC also owns quality stop unit, but QB Davis iffy, & ditto Eagle run "O".

   SEC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Georgia Dome, Atlanta

   Florida 38 - Alabama 24 - (4:00 - CBS) -- Elite squads at the absolute top of

   their games. Gators have a 344-78 pt edge in their 7 lined games since loss to

   OleMiss: +140½ pts ATS. Check LW's 260-yd edge at FlaSt in monsoon type

   weather. Try 346 & 317 RYs vs SoCaro & FlaSt, with Tebow at 25/2. Top ranked

   Tide also smoking: 5-0 ATS, with a 159-37 pt edge, & #3 "D". Can't buck Gators.

   BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP @ Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

   Oklahoma 51 - Missouri 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Astounding! Only descriptive of

   ongoing accomplishments of this Sooner squad. And incredible 59.5 ppg since

   their loss to Texas, topping 60 pts their last 4 games. Bradford now 46/6, with

   Okies ranking 19th in rushing. Pity Tigs, despite Daniel's 34/13 (75%), & 42 ppg

   "O" in last 26 outings. But just 64 & 30 RYs in 2 of their 3 losses. Okies easily.

   ADDED GAMES

   Middle Tenn St 27 - LA-LAFAYETTE 17 TROY 35 - Arkansas St 17

   FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 38 - Western Kentucky 24

   __________________

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:19pm
6. 0 likes

   pointwise

   NFL Key Selections

   3--ARIZONA over St Louis 45-13

   3--NEW YORK JETS over San Francisco 34-20

   4--NEW ENGLAND over Seattle 30-17

   5--MINNESOTA over Detroit 34-13

   5--KANSAS CITY (+) over Denver 20-23

   THURSDAY

   SAN DIEGO 23 - Oakland 20 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Chargers 3 back of Broncos, with

   4 to play, so just about done. In off putrid home performance vs Falcons, in which

   they managed only 201 yds, & 13 FDs. Now under 100 RYs in 6 of last 8 outings,

   with 9 of their games decided by a TD or less. Third straight HG, but it means

   little, especially in light of the fact that the visitor has covered the last 5 games

   involving the Raiders, by 70½ pts ATS. And note Oakland covering its last RG by

   30 pts. We know that Chargers are 10-1 ATS vs the Raiders, but call for change.

   SUNDAY

   INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Cincinnati 10 - (1:00) -- The NFL visitor has been golden

   over the past month, but backing the anemic Bengals is asking too much. They

   have a 1,206-645 yd deficit over the last 3 weeks, & are in off 11 & 6 FD efforts,

   in 27-10 & 34-3 losses. And they've lost their last 2 RGs by a combined score

   of 62-16. Indy has been no ball of fire, despite 5 straight wins, by 3, 4, 6, 3, 4

   pts SU, with no offensive TDs, & just 14 FDs LW. But check 30 FDs in their

   last HG. And Cincinnati is 6-12 ATS away off a SU loss of >13 pts. Colt call.

   CHICAGO 24 - Jacksonville 23 - (1:00) -- So much for the "Monsters of the

   Midway" label for the Bears' "D", as it has allowed 31 ppg in 5 of its last 6 tilts,

   including Sunday's embarrassment at Minny. Just 10 FDs, with 3 INTs from

   Orton. Same old story, regardless of who is over center. Thus, Chicago is one

   back of the Vikes. Check a 27-26 ppg edge at home for the Bears this season,

   which coincides with visitor success in J'Ville games: now on a 9-1 ATS streak.

   GREEN BAY 34 - Houston 20 - (1:00) -- The Packers did just about everything

   but win LW, as they dominated the Panthers, with 25-15 FD & 438-300 yd

   edges, only to fall, 35-31. Check 24, 22, & 25 FDs for GreenBay over the past

   3 weeks. And they did cover their previous 2 HGs by 21 & 30½ pts. They can't

   afford another loss, & catching the Texans, not only off their Monday Nighter,

   but in a division revenge sandwich, is nice. Pack is 21-11 as Dec host, while

   McCarthy is 8-2 ATS vs <.500 non-division opponents. We'll give the 5½ pts.

   TENNESSEE 24 - Cleveland 13 - (1:00) -- That's what we call a bounceback in

   style. Check Titans' 292-23 RY edge, behind Johnson & White, as well as a

   456-154 TY advantage vs the Lions. Have now held 14 of their last 16 foes

   under 18 pts, & are +15 TOs for the season. Brownies are out of it, losing to

   Indy, despite not allowing an offensive TD (fumble return in the 4th did 'em in).

   But a solid "D" (13 ppg last 2 wks), & the dog is on a 9-0 ATS run in Cleveland

   games. Titans are just 4-13 ATS off scoring >27 pts, thus a mild underdog call.

   Minnesota 34 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- An 0-18 season seems almost inevitable,

   as far as the Lions are concerned. Have won just 1 of their last 20 games on

   the field, & that in the '07 stretch, while hosting the 4-12 Chiefs. Their latest

   futility was witnessed by the entire nation, in a franchise-worst 37-pt loss to the

   Titans. Check allowing 34 ppg in their last 18 games. And also check Minny

   averaging 27 pts in its last 6 RGs. Visitor now 9-0 ATS in Detroit games. Ditto.

   BALTIMORE 20 - Washington 19 - (8:15 - NBC)) -- Loved it! Balt was our top

   NFL play LW, & ensuing 34-3 rout was enjoyable (24-pt cover): edges of 20-6

   in FDs, & 451-155 in yds. Now a 70-10 pt edge in Ravens' last 2 tilts, holding

   8 foes below 14 pts. 'Skins couldn't stay with the Giants (who can?), but they

   also own a quality "D", holding 19 foes below 21 pts since LY. And the visitor is

   8-0-1 ATS in Washington games, by 79½ pts. 'Skins are 10-1 ATS as dogs, off

   being held below 10 pts, & playing a foe off a SU win. Mildest of underdog call.

   NEW YORK GIANTS 30 - Philadelphia 13 - (1:00) -- Superb display by McNabb

   & Eagles in "must-win" setup vs Cards. Check 27-of-39 for 260 yds & 4/0 for

   Donovan, in that 48-20 wipeout: 32-12 FD edge. Sure sweet after 6 TOs in

   previous 6 quarters for McNabb. Giants continue to amaze. Now 16-2 ATS, &

   15-1 SU. Averaging 34 ppg in their last 5 gms, with Eli at 539 PYs last 2 wks,

   despite some personnel problems. Eagles are 0-7 ATS on division road off a

   win, vs a foe off a pair of SU/ATS wins. And NY 21-7 ATS off DD division win.

   NEW ORLEANS 34 - Atlanta 23 - (1:00) -- Falcons sure made a statement with

   LW's rather easy win over the Chargers (348-201 yd edge), allowing just 13

   FDs. Check Ryan at 13/7, & Turner at 237 RYs the past 2 weeks. Staying one

   back of the Bucs & Panthers, so no letup. But before that win over slipping

   SanDiego, Atlanta had allowed 28 ppg in 7 of their prior 8 RGs. So note that the

   Saints, who are in a definite "must-win" setup, are averaging 36 ppg in their last

   4 HGs, & covered their last 2 hosters by 24 & 21 pts. Brees leads revenge win.

   New York Jets 34 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:05) -- Brett returns to the scene of

   his '97 Super Bowl win, and it comes at just the right time, as NY in off shocker

   of a setback, hosting the Broncos (25 pts, ATS). That loss snapped a 5-game

   NY run, including road upsets of the Bills, Pats, & Titans. And even in that loss

   to Denver, note Jones with 138 RYs (8.6 ypr). So, the Niners stand in the way

   of the bounceback, & that assignment is hairy, to say the least. Check a deficit

   of 350-195 yds in SF upset of the Bills, & a 30.5 ppg "D" in previous 8 outings.

   BUFFALO 24 - Miami 23 - (4:04 - @ Toronto) -- Bills came from 54 pts to 3 in a

   week. That's right, just a single FG vs SanFran's previously 28 ppg defense,

   despite nearly a 100-yd overland edge, with Lynch at 134 yds (8.4 ypr). But

   Edwards continues to struggle (10/10 for the season). Fish barely snuck by

   the woeful Rams, managing a mere 16 FDs vs StLouis' 30th ranked "D". But

   Miami didn't allow an offensive TD. Thus the dog is now 10-0 ATS in Dolphin

   games by 135½ pts. Bills are 8-1 ATS in series, but that miss came this year.

   DENVER 23 - Kansas City 20 - (4:05) -- Visitor, visitor, visitor. Only way to go

   with these 2, at the moment. Broncos in off splendid win over the Jets (100-yd

   edge), behind Cutler & Hillis, with that pushing the recent road edge to 5-0 ATS

   in Denver games by 85 pts. So, Denver has a 3-game lead over the Chargers,

   while KC enters on a 2-19 SU run. However, the Chiefs, who were our top NFL

   Red Sheet play LW, have covered their last 3 RGs by 10, 14, & 10 pts, with the

   visitor on a 16-6 ATS run in KC tilts. Denver 1-11 ATS in division off upset win.

   ARIZONA 45- St Louis 13 - (4:15) -- Not the best spot for the Rams, who catch

   the seething Cards off losses to the Giants & Eagles, managing just 23 & 45

   RYs, with 4 INTs from Warner. So, StLouis is 0-for-2, in trying to clinch its

   division. Enter the Rams, who have dropped 6 straight, with a 159-47 pt deficit

   in their last 5 games, & who have dropped their last 3 division RGs by similar

   scores of 48-19, 37-13, & 35-16. Bulger just 7/11 for the season. Arizona is

   still at 32 ppg in its last 19 contests, & should take no prisoners in this clincher.

   PITTSBURGH 26 - Dallas 20 - (4:15) -- Return of Romo doing wonders for the

   'Boys, who have posted 35 & 34 pt totals the past 2 wks, after failing to top 14

   pts in their previous 4 contests. Romo? Try 6/1. But also realize that it came

   vs the Niners & Seahawks (combined 6-18 record). A bit tougher this time

   around, as the Steelers in off a run of 30 unanswered pts in 33-10 rout of the

   Pats. Have held 8 foes under 18 pts, & have a 467-yd edge in their last 3 tilts.

   Pitt 25-11 ATS as a Dec HF, & Dallas a 2-11 RD vs an AFC opponent off a win.

   New England 30 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Five turnovers (4 by Cassel) for the

   normally efficient Pats in 33-10 drubbing at the hands of the Steelers. But they

   have been masterful in regrouping, as they've covered all 4 previous games

   following losses, including 31-pt & 21-pt covers in 2 of those 4. And check 30

   FDs & 530 yds in their last RG. The Seahawks continue among the dregs, &

   now stand at an unfathomable 2-10. Nary a TD at Dallas, with Hasselbeck at 6

   INTs over the last 3 weeks. Pats are 11-1 ATS vs the NFC West. And another.

   MONDAY

   CAROLINA 20 - Tampa Bay 10 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 are tied atop the NFC

   South. Panthers in off clipping Green Bay, 35-31, despite 25-15 FD & 438-300 yd

   deficits. Check a career-high 4 TDs for DeAngelo in that one, & Delhomme is

   finally cranking it up (33-of-52 last 2 games). Chalk is still 7-2-1 ATS in Carolina

   games. Bucs have managed just 15 & 11 FDs the past 2 wks, but have won 4

   straight, & have held 6 of 11 foes under 17 pts. Carolina has a 28-13 ppg edge at

   home this year, & Tampa is 9-18 ATS on the Dec road. Yet another revenge call.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:19pm
7. 0 likes

   the sports reporter

   SUPER BEST BET

   *WEST VIRGINIA over SOUTH FLORIDA by 28

   If a Big East Championship was not going to be there for West Virginia to play for, then

   the next best thing would be for the Mountaineers to be coming off a loss and playing

   QB Pat White’s final home game against a shaky and injured South Florida defense,

   against whom West Virginia has double-revenge. South Florida had the defensive players

   to at least contain West Virginia’s spread option a year ago and the year before that.

   This season, the personnel is a notch below what it used to be. The Mountaineers lost

   White late in the second quarter of last season’s 21-13 defeat after he took a helmet to

   his right thigh on a running play. He limped off the field and remained on the sideline.

   With White out, South Florida was able to win the game with only 274 offensive yards.

   They had help with two lost fumbles by Steve Slaton, and an early INT of White returned

   for a TD, Despite turning it over a total of 6 times and playing with a sub-par QB, West

   Virginia still controlled the clock for 34.5 minutes and rolled up 437 total yards before

   watching the goalposts come down in Tampa. When they make people miss and play

   cleaner while their 3-3-5 stack does its thing against scatter-armed Matt Grothe, the

   result should be in this neighborhood. WEST VIRGINIA, 41-13.

   BEST BET

   *ARIZONA over ARIZONA STATE by 21

   The SportsCenter scoreboard perception of ASU’s 34-9 win over UCLA may be one of an

   in-conference blow out. Perception ain’t always reality. The Sun Devils managed just 122

   yards, were 2-of-13 on third down, and averaged 0.9 yards per rush. You’d think that

   they scored the 9. Luckily for the offense, the defense scored a ridiculous 4 TDs, a feat

   that’s tough to do in a 12-game season. It’s not like they were going up against the USC

   defense. UCLA ranks 51st nationally in total defense – respectable, but not great.

   Arizona’s D will see that ranking and raise it – manning the 26th ranked defense. Add to

   that the fact that the Cats sharpen their claws at home – giving up just 4.6 yards per play

   in Tucson compared to 5.6 yards per play on the road. As for the offense, offensive coordinator

   Sonny Dykes has found balance this season after relying heavily on the pass last

   year. That balance has kept QB Tuitama cleaner and healthier, while increasing overall

   offensive efficiency. The ASU defense is pretty solid, but they’ve also been matching up

   against three of the NCAA’s worst offenses during their 3-game win streak. Coach Mike

   Stoops needs this win. Back-to-back losses to the Oregon schools leaves him at 6-5, and

   while they’ll likely be strapping on the rental shoes and going bowling, 6-6 may not sit

   well with the football powers that be. ARIZONA, 35-14.

   RECOMMENDED

   FLORIDA over ALABAMA by 2

   Cut through the media’s fascination with the juggernaut that

   is Florida football and get to the meat of this matchup. Who will win the battle in the

   trenches? The answer on both sides of the ball is Alabama. Nick Saban’s o-line consists

   of five huge, talented, athletic and mean kids who want nothing more than to steamroll

   opposing defenses. The Gator d-front is talented, but they are young and have yet to face

   this level of physicality. On the other side of the ball the Tided-line is anchored by 360-

   pound mountain Terrance Cody. They are a physical bunch that fits perfectly into Saban’s

   3-4 system. This formation is not used heavily in college football so they’ll be some

   things that Tim Tebow & Co. are not used to seeing. It’s possible that Tebow won’t have

   a 100% healthy Percy Harvin, who left the FSU game in the 2nd quarter and didn’t return.

   Harvin is Florida’s single most dangerous player with the football in his hands, and his

   presence on the field opens things up for the other speed burners. Alabama is also a

   team that does not beat themselves. That is key when playing Urban Meyer because one

   of his primary objectives is to win the battle of turnovers and field position. With a lower

   risk, power offense, Alabama rarely puts itself in bad situations. The Tide kicked off the

   season with a game in the Georgia Dome (against Clemson) and familiar with the drill.

   FLORIDA, 28-26.

   THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

   *RUTGERS over LOUISVILLE by 8

   Sure, the Rutgers team predictably gained momentum as Big East season progressed, and

   they got 0-2 out of the way early against the two best teams in the conference,West Virginia

   and Cincinnati. Currently on a 5-0 SU and ATS run, Rutgers enters the regular season finale

   at 6-5 SU, bowl-eligible and hosting a 5-6 SU Louisville team now a desperate 0-4 SU and

   ATS in search of that elusive sixth win. Louisville’s defense has been shredded recently. But

   what will be generally unseen is a size mismatch up front favoring Louisville’s big offensive

   line vs. Rutgers small defensive front. A two-pronged rushing attack can move the chains and

   open up some vertical opportunities for Cards’ senior QB Cantwell, and keep Rutgers’ senior

   QB Teel on the sidelines foaming at the mouth waiting to make pass plays to override a soso

   Rutgers running game – as the fans who have spent three seasons foaming at the mouth

   against Teel’s vapor-locking ways watch another Rutgers home struggle. RUTGERS, 29-21.

   FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5

   MAC CHAMPIONSHIP

   Ford Field – Detroit, MI

   BALL STATE over BUFFALO by 18

   Going against 11-0 SU, 9-2-1 ATS Ball State is like messin’ with Sasquatch. You don’t want

   to be the guy who gets slammed into the tree trunk for his smart-ass efforts. Buffalo’s

   defense has allowed 47% third down conversions this season, playing mostly in the weaker

   East half of the MAC. Turner Gill’s team has been protected by a solid running game and better-

   than-average passing attack, which have helped keep that defense off the field. Ball

   State’s offense, led by sharp QB Nate Davis, has converted 50% of third downs and here is

   the stat behind the stat which should keep you on the Ball State track here: Ball State’s

   offense has played fewer third downs than any other team in the nation! They get first downs

   on first and second down! A comparable offense is Missouri: 42 points per game team whose

   offense has the second-fewest third down snaps in the nation. Playing indoors is more of a

   help to Ball State than it is to Buffalo, whose QB Drew Willy is known for not throwing interceptions

   but who would nevertheless be in spots to get picked by a turnover-getting defense

   with Buffalo in a trailing scoreboard position. BALL STATE, 41-23.

   SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6

   NAVY over ARMY by 15 (at Philadelphia, PA)

   Navy’s Turnover Ratio is +14. Army’s Turnover Ratio is –12. Therefore, we all know which

   side owns the better military intelligence. Navy’s goat has a better chance to gain five hardcharging

   yards without fumbling than any of Army’s skill position players, who have put the

   ball on the ground 34 times and seen it recovered 23 times by the other side. This tendency

   would have brought softer defenses to tears by now. Army’s defense has allowed 5.5 yards

   per play – slightly worse than average but still fewer than, say, Texas Tech, Kansas, Stanford,

   NC State… and Navy, whose offense might have been targeting the return of Kaipo (the best

   QB for their system) all along here. NAVY, 34-19.

   PITTSBURGH over *CONNECTICUT by 3

   “Handicapping” assumptions say the Panthers will be flat off winning the Backyard Brawl vs.

   West Virginia, but nobody ever tallies up the record of “projected flat off wonderful win

   teams” in their next game. It’s kind of a joke. So, after being –5 in TO Ratio in a 20-point

   home loss to Connecticut last season, an equally valid or more accurate ‘’assumption’’ could

   be that the wacky Wannies come out and show the Huskies how good they can be.

   Connecticut RB Brown is all ticked off about not being on the Doak Walker Award list despite

   being the nation’s leading rusher. But with eight men in the box against a poor pass offense,

   he’s no longer the weapon he was and Pitt’s main RB is better. PITTSBURGH, 20-17.

   *CALIFORNIA over WASHINGTON by 32

   Not much motivation here for the Huskies after a heart-breaking OT loss to Washington State

   pushed their media. Not that focusing full-time on the Bears would help much. Both Cal’s

   offensive and defensive lines will have field days pushing smaller Washington players 3-5

   yards deep. Playing UW last will allow Jeff Tedford to get significant playing time for his outgoing

   seniors. Tedford could lay an embarrassing beat down on Willingham as a parting gift,

   but diplomacy will prevail. CAL, 41-9.

   USC over *UCLA by 28

   The Bruin offense looks a lot like the Notre Dame one that USC just buried last week. Weak

   offensive line + no running game + pick-prone QB. Three strikes, they’re out. Bruin signalcaller

   Craft doesn’t really see the field well, but it’s hard to when looking out of your ear hole.

   ASU brought the heat to UCLA with a lot of success. The Sun Devils are a cap gun compared

   to the Trojans bazooka. Pete Carroll’s entire two-deep across the d-line could start for just

   about any in the nation and when they aren’t making plays, they contain o-linemen and let

   the LBs eat. UCLA does step up on defense from time-to-time, but how much motivation is

   there when everything you do is in vain because the offense can’t keep you in it? This is not

   he cross-town rivalry game that Neuheisel will point to as winnable. He knows that the future

   in Westwood is brighter and will look to get game experience for the kids who’ll be on the

   field at this time next year. USC, 38-10.

   CINCINNATI over *HAWAII by 6

   May be tough for Ohio natives to get motivated after earning a BCS berth last week. Good

   news for prospective Cinci backers is that coach Brian Kelly is a no-nonsense guy who could

   care less if they were playing in Hawaii or Iceland. It’s all about winning football games. The

   islanders have improved this year, but still have trouble hanging onto the football. Given the

   fact that the Bearcats make a living on turning opponents over, Hawaii may not give themselves

   the chance to pull the upset. CINCINNATI, 26-20.

   *TROY STATE over ARKANSAS STATE by 15

   The Sun Belt championship is on the line in the house of 5-1 SU Troy. Once again, 4-2 SU

   Arkansas State won the turnover ratio (+2) and lost the point-spread last Saturday. The

   downhill rushing attack doesn’t make enough big plays to quiet a crowd, and a scoreboard

   deficit against them puts them behind the 8-ball. For all the turnovers the defense has

   acquired, it still gives up too many points per game (23.1). Troy had a bye last week and they

   already had the more varied offensive package, plus a solid defense that can lock in on the

   run and force ASU QB Leonard to make plays he can’t. TROY, 31-16.

   *FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL over WESTERN KENTUCKY by 5

   Western Kentucky would not have the vertical comeback capabilities that Florida Atlantic’s

   Rusty “Big Play For Sure!” Smith engineered last Saturday to douse the flaming-haired FIU

   defense and erase the upstart’s 21-point fourth quarter lead in the annual rivalry game. WKU

   (0-9 SU vs. Division 1) has generated only 295 offensive yards per game this season. But

   FIU’s offense has been inconsistent, their defensive injuries are for real, and WKU has had

   had two bye weeks to order the Kitchen Sink, Jr. package and target the holes. That would

   be the fodder for prospective puppy-chow players. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL, 29-24.

   CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

   *TULSA over EAST CAROLINA by 10

   Guess ya’ gotta respect East Carolina’s record in step-up games: Wins at Virginia Tech and

   against West Virginia, a win in Honolulu in a bowl game vs. Boise State last season. With a

   better quarterback, Tulsa was nevertheless crushed by Central Florida in this spot last season,

   and they failed to stop Arkansas’ offense when they went into Fayetteville unbeaten last

   month. Tulsa does a great job of wearing down weak defenses with its up-tempo offense.

   But when the other side has solid athletes who can make a few stops, the offense loses its

   bite and the defense is forced to hold up its end, which it only does when it gets interceptions

   or recovers fumbles. ECU normally won’t beat itself and their special teams have a habit

   of making sudden, in-game point-swings. If Tulsa QB Johnson plays like he did in a big-game

   defeat at Houston before Tulsa was able to back-door its way into this game, they will be the

   chaser instead of the chased. TULSA, 34-24.

   ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

   Jacksonville, FL

   BOSTON COLLEGE over VIRGINIA TECH by 3

   V-Tech is a run-based club that must find success in the passing game this week to win.

   Two-thirds of the Hokies first downs this year have come on the ground and as a team they

   average only 5 first downs via the pass per game. BC is great against the run already, and

   they’re better when they know it’s coming. The Eagles held V-Tech to just 3.7 yards per play

   in their 28-23 victory earlier in the year due to a lack of offensive balance. BC only managed

   4.3 yards per play themselves, but the passing attack exploited some holes that they’ll look

   for again. BOSTON COLLEGE, 21-18.

   BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP

   Kansas City, MO

   OKLAHOMA over MISSOURI by 15

   Mizzou must shore up their pass D to have a shot. The Tigers have surrendered 24 TD passes

   and are allowing opponents to convert a healthy 41% on 3rd down. That’s a recipe for disaster

   vs. the Sooners. They also don’t play well defensively on the road, giving up an average

   of 461 yards per game. That puts them in San Diego State’s league if applied to a 12-

   game season. OU has put up 60+ in four straight and averages over 550 yards per game.

   Ouch. To make this competitive, QB Chase Daniel must throw all over a defense that does

   struggle against the pass. 70% of yards gained against Stoops’ team have come via the air

   and Daniel has plenty of weapons at his disposal. OKLAHOMA, 52-37.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:20pm
8. 0 likes

   the sports reporter

   SUPER BEST BET

   DALLAS over *PITTSBURGH by 17

   Why did we like the Colts against the Steelers a few weeks ago as a Best Bet winner in

   the Midweek Update? Straight-ahead power running game, as opposed to running backs

   who dance around in the backfield like Clinton Portis of Washington and allow the

   Steelers to get penetration to register negative-yardage rushes. An offense with a big

   offensive line that runs straight ahead won’t look pretty, but it will be effective enough

   against the overly zealous Steelers’ front seven, grinding clock, wearing them down,

   establishing very makeable third-down tries, setting up just enough pass plays to be

   made, and putting Ben Roethlisberger onto long fields after drives that stall and force

   punts. The Steelers are 7-1 SU in AFC games but already 0-2 SU and ATS vs. the Giants

   and Eagles, who feature two of the most powerful offensive lines in the NFL. Dallas’

   offensive front is about as good, and those two losses were played earlier in the season

   when the Steelers were healthier. Pittsburgh just achieved some sweet revenge against

   a banged-up New England team they love to hate, eyes fellow 8-4 SU division rival

   Baltimore up next, but must first face a better-rested Cowboys team that stumbled on

   the backstretch, but has had both a bye and a 10-day break among its last three games

   and is making a bold move on the outside. Dallas also has a bunch of ex-AFC assistant

   coaches who have been in there prepping against a familiar foe. DALLAS, 30-13.

   BEST BET

   *CHICAGO over JACKSONVILLE by 15

   How does Jacksonville deal with the short week following a Monday Night Football

   appearance and the realization that their season is at a dead end? Their playoff hopes

   dissipated weeks ago along with any consistency in their performance, and the real pertinent

   questions pertain to which players are going to bother showing up in these remaining

   weeks. These warm weather creatures won’t feel any enthusiasm at heading up to

   Chicago for the first week of December to face a Bears team that is somehow in the middle

   of the tightest divisional race in the NFL. Chicago’s defense has actually been pretty

   unspectacular this season – while their run defense numbers are strong, they’ve given

   up some good games to good running backs, and the secondary has been a problem all

   season – beset by injuries and inconsistency. But the Jacksonville offense they face

   today is exactly the type of offense that Chicago can succeed against – a run game that

   has fallen flat on its face, with no real marquee running back, and a passing game that

   has lacked big play potential all season. Look for the Bears to do their part in extending

   the NFC North race into the season’s final weeks. CHICAGO 24-9

   RECOMMENDED

   NEW ENGLAND over *SEATTLE by 13

   The Seahawks have had two extra days to prepare, but they are a team without a pass

   rush facing a throw-first Patriots team that is suddenly on the bottom end of a four-team

   scramble for the final two wild card spots in the AFC. Matt Cassel does his best work, as

   most quarterbacks do, when facing a suspect secondary while given plenty of time in the

   pocket. Facing a Seattle team that ranks second-to-last in the NFL in passing yards

   allowed, and just lost their leading pass rusher in Patrick Kearney, will give Matt Cassel’s

   agent one more reason to cheer the football gods. Randy Moss poses a huge size mismatch

   for whichever undersized Seattle cornerback is assigned to cover him and Moss’

   burgeoning rapport with Cassel will take one more step forward. The Seahawks are nearing

   the end of the line of Holmgren era and the writing is on the wall for Matt Hasselbeck

   – whose body has betrayed him this season. The carving of Seattle’s leftover turkey continues

   this week. NEW ENGLAND 30-17.

   RECOMMENDED

   KANSAS CITY over *DENVER by 1

   Fresh off last week’s big win against the Jets, the Broncos look to exact some revenge

   against a Chiefs team that walloped them around in week four – but will they succeed?

   These Chiefs are a lot different from the Larry Johnson-led team of week four – with a

   surprising amount of big play potential and a passing game that is improving by the

   week. Denver is also a team that can easily get an overinflated sense of self – just listen

   to Jay Cutler talk – and the Broncos have suffered an astounding number of injuries

   on defense that has decreased the effectiveness of an already questionable unit. With

   both of their starting cornerbacks down for the count, this game promises to be an upand-

   down affair between two teams that will be taking turns marching down the field.

   Denver is an overrated commodity that has been outscored by their opponents this season

   – in this present incarnation, there isn’t a huge difference in talent between them

   and the Chiefs. With a divisional game on the line and buzz building about the young

   players, Herm Edwards should get his guys to play hard in the hopes of scoring two

   straight divisonal wins on the road. KANSAS CITY 27-26.

   THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

   *SAN DIEGO over OAKLAND by 7

   The 4-8 SU Chargers are three games behind AFC West division-leading Denver with four

   games to play. There is light at the end of the tunnel, but San Diego plays with no real zeal.

   Letting Michael Turner escape when Tomlinson wasn’t 100% came back to haunt them on

   Sunday, and now Norv’s butt-draggers have to get up and play again off a short week against

   a division rival that owes them big-time: 10 straight losses by the Raiders in this season

   series means they come in thinking, “We would like to fork you.” Without the short-field setups

   and playing with leads that their defense crafted last season, Philip Rivers has looked

   like a lost dog behind center for San Diego as the running game has regressed from 136

   yards per game down to 90. The Raiders are more familiar with how to play with a lost dog

   behind center, because they’ve been doing that since Rich Gannon left the scene. SAN

   DIEGO, 23-16.

   SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7

   *INDIANAPOLIS over CINCINNATI by 10

   While the Colts have been putting together a nice run of games, they haven’t dominated an

   opponent since week six, when they beat the Ravens by 28. While it’s nice to win games, it

   would also be nice if the Colts’ defense could take care of business – especially in stopping

   opposing running games. With Gary Brackett and Freddie Keiaho both injured in last week’s

   game against the Browns, the Colts will be trotting out some weak personnel at the linebacker

   spots. Luckily for them, the Bengals lack the run personnel to truly gash the Indy

   defensive front seven. Indy’s stout pass defense and pass rush will make life hell for Ryan

   Fitzpatrick – who has consistently performed as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league

   all year. Indy hasn’t given anyone reason to have confidence in their ability to cover, but the

   Bengals are one of the worst road teams in the NFL with nothing to play for, playing a team

   that needs to win. INDIANPOLIS 27-17.

   *GREEN BAY over HOUSTON by 10

   ‘Oh, the Packers’ defense stinks! They can’t stop anybody! It’s shameful! Who’s to blame!

   Fire the coordinator!’ Oh, shut up. The Packers have allowed 51 and 35 points in consecutive

   defeats, but Carolina’s offense gained only 300 yards. Of course, considering how the

   Panthers had the football for only 22:08, there is some cause for concern that Green Bay

   won’t stop anyone for the rest of the season. However, the maligned Packers’ defense

   shouldn’t have much of a problem shutting down the Houston running game, since the

   Texans employ the same zone-blocking system that Green Bay’s defense practices against

   every day. And, Houston QB Sage Rosenfels doesn’t seem to possess a scary upside that

   would cause opposing defensive coordinators to tear their hair out. The Texans will be coming

   up to Green Bay off a short week and a head-butting contest with their AFC South rivals

   the Jaguars. Their own defense knows the opposing blocking schemes, too, but that defense

   and the rest of the Texans players are lining up for the 12th straight week without a bye, on

   the short rest. Not an ideal scenario. GREEN BAY, 27-17.

   *TENNESSEE over CLEVELAND by 17

   The situation in Cleveland is spiraling downward at breakneck pace – on the day that

   sources inside the Cleveland Browns organization leak to ESPN that Coach Romeo Crennel

   “needs a miracle finish” to the season to save his job, his team drops a winnable game

   against a sloppy Colts squad while also losing Kellen Winslow and Derek Anderson to injury.

   Let the Ken Dorsey era reconvene in Cleveland! That will get the fans pining for spring training

   sooner rather than later. It’s beyond time for the Browns players to see the writing on the

   wall – the last four weeks of the season loom heavily, with three games on the road against

   difficult competition and each game taking place outdoors in the dead of winter. Can you say,

   rolling over? The offense will be unable to move the ball while relying on Dorsey and Jamal

   Lewis as their primary weapons and Braylon Edwards’ butterfingers won’t improve while trying

   to catch Dorsey’s wobbly seven-yard outs. The entire country saw what Tennessee can

   do to a bad team that has given up on the season and this week – with two extra days of

   rest, no less – the Titans will give one more example of a dominant team executing against

   a team seemingly incapable of executing anything properly. TENNESSEE 27-10.

   MINNESOTA over *DETROIT by 10

   You might be tempted to dig into Detroit, looking to unearth a nugget of gold under all that

   garbage – some reason to take the home dog, even though the Lions have played more like

   dogs than lions all season. Daunte Culpepper may want to play well against his former team,

   but is he even capable of it with fifty extra pounds to carry on bum knees? They have had

   two extra days to prepare, but Coach Rod Marinelli sounds more like a man checked out of

   the house and into the asylum. Let’s not forget that Detroit’s run defense gives up an average

   of 177 yards per game – how bad will they play against Adrian Peterson and the

   Minnesota offensive line? The Lions have had some bright spots during the first halves of

   games, but they consistently play as the worst team of all time during the second halves –

   which is right about when the Vikings offense goes into low-risk, all-run mode – at least if

   Coach Brad Childress has taken his medication for the day. Hopefully the urgency of the NFC

   North divisional race will prevent Childress from giving another game away in a “must-win

   + should-win” situation. MINNESOTA 24-14.

   *BALTIMORE over WASHINGTON by 2

   Flacco Joe, whaddya know? The Ravens are 8-4 SU, 9-2-1 ATS with the rookie behind center

   not screwing it up like Boller and McNair and the old country-club coaching staff did. The

   Redskins’ defense is getting banged-up, and will be more banged-up after taking on the

   Giants last Sunday. The defensive tackle spot has been hit hard recently, and the Ravens run

   the ball more than anyone else in the NFL. No rest for the weary in this league. It appears

   the Redskins have reached a point where plays are there to be made by the offense, but

   Jason The Stiff Campbell at quarterback is not capable of making enough of them vs. difficult

   opposing defenses. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh spent time on the coaching

   staff of the Eagles in NFC East, so the AFC Ravens are not going in blind against a desperate

   opponent they face only once every four years. The Ravens are, however, sandwiched

   between AFC North foes Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and the upcoming game with the Steelers

   is a biggie. If the Steelers have already lost earlier in the day (see next page, eh?), then a loss

   here would not be too bad for them. BALTIMORE, 19-17.

   *NY GIANTS over PHILADELPHIA by 3

   Big Blue: 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS in 2008. Playing against the Giants has been the NFL version of

   messin’ with Sasquatch. But we were never on the Bury Philly bandwagon and will let the

   Andy Reid and McNabb knockers yell themselves silly as we try to remain focused on realities.

   These NFC rivals usually play close games. The prior meeting went back-and-forth to a

   36-31 Giants final on the scoreboard despite a dominant, 39-21 minute edge for the Giants

   in clock control. Plaxico Burress wasn’t a factor in the game with only one catch for 17

   yards… or was he? Boss and Toomer had 6 and 5 receptions, but would they have had as

   many without Burress on the field to command attention? If the Giant Goof is out again, a

   division rival most familiar with the Giants and their pass routes needn’t devote double-coverage

   to the 6’6” match-up nightmare, and can play the Giants as straight-up as possible.

   The Eagles have stronger spines than, say, the jellyfish Redskins and have always played

   well as backs-to-the-wall underdogs. NY GIANTS, 24-21.

   *NEW ORLEANS over ATLANTA by 8

   The Falcons have improved greatly during the course of the season, notching a big road win

   over the San Diego Chargers in week thirteen. But a non-conference road win over a team

   locked in a death spiral is a different beast from a divisional road game in a venue the

   Falcons have never played well. Although Atlanta has earned this talk of playoff aspirations,

   they are still a young team that is susceptible to faltering in these type of situations. The

   Saints may only be 6-6 and last in the division, they are still nominally in the chase and their

   home crowd should be loud and raucous for this game. Matt Ryan is readily praised for displaying

   poise beyond his years, but his home and road splits show a tale of two quarterbacks

   – his most recent game notwithstanding. But perhaps the bigger impact of playing in New

   Orleans will be on the performance of Drew Brees, who is currently pursuing the single season

   passing yardage record, and excelling at home: a 5-1 record, 70.5% passes completed

   for 2,018 yards and a 17-4 TD-INT ratio. Compare this to a 1-5 road record, with a 62.4%

   passes completed for 1,852 yards and a 7-10 TD-INT ratio – Brees is a different quarterback

   at home and the solid, but not spectacular Atlanta secondary will suffer for that fact. NEW

   ORLEANS 31-23.

   NY JETS over *SAN FRANCISCO by 4

   Fling it, Favre! Gotta love the potential train wreck. The Jets can go places, but it will not be

   a smooth trip, that’s for sure. Buckle the seat belts and refurbish the shock absorbers. But

   don’t write off the Jetsons simply because they lost on their home field to the Denver zoneblockers

   who chopped their so-called tough run defense down to size with a rookie fourthstring

   ex-collegiate blocking back. That’s football, and that’s sound, experienced opposing

   coaching, too. San Francisco’s straight-ahead rushing attack will be much easier for the 3-4

   to contain, the 49ers have first-season clowns pulling the strings in different directions, and

   49ers’ QB Shaun Hill will not be making pass plays all over the field like Jay Cutler was to

   big receivers vs. that smurfie secondary. NY JETS, 27-23.

   *BUFFALO over MIAMI by 1 (at Toronto)

   Why put the warm-weather softies of Miami in a dome, indoors in December instead of out

   in the cold? Way to screw up a home-field advantage for the Bills. Neither of these understocked,

   over-achievers has what it takes to play big enough consistently enough at this time

   of the year to make a successful playoff run. This is the Fraudulent Bowl between bottomfeeders

   -- who beat weaklings and lose vs. the top teams – with the winner earning the right

   to have his dreams last a little longer before they are squashed. Why should it be Buffalo?

   It’s a shot for some Trent Edwards redemption after he bozoed the earlier meeting in Miami,

   triggering the gun against the Bills with two of the offense’s four turnovers on a –3 TO Ratio

   day. Or, a chance for J.P. Losman to do something good off the bench. Chad's Pennington is

   elated to be playing indoors instead of outdoors near Lake Erie, where the wind would have

   carried his softball into waiting hands of second-string defensive backs. But now that key

   possession receiver Greg Camarillo is out for the season, the Dolphins’ second receiver

   option after Ted Ginn, Jr. is 5’10” Davone Bess. BUFFALO, 24-23.

   *ARIZONA over ST. LOUIS by 17

   Taking points with visiting teams who have problems scoring, and do not have a strong

   defense that can prevent points from being scored against them by a productive home

   offense, is one of the oldest bad temptations in the book. For a St. Louis backer, too many

   bad things can happen. Sure, they got RB Steven Jackson back last Sunday and he is the key

   to their offense and all that. But they gained only 278 yards against a so-so Miami defense

   last Sunday, as Marc Bulger didn’t get sacked but still got intercepted three times. And we

   covered with St. Louis +7.5 in a Midweek Update Best Bet! Thank you, and goodbye. It’s a

   bad scene in St. Loo and the Rams’ team isn’t made up physically or mentally to string too

   many competitive efforts together this late in a bad season. The Cardinals would really have

   to reach back and pull out a page from the Historic Cardinals Screw-Up Book to blow this

   one. They might even win and cover it with their usual 10 penalties for 90 yards. Arizona’s

   offense gets 22 first downs per game to the Rams’ 13.5, and gained 500 yards in the first

   meeting, which they won by 21 points in St. Louis. ARIZONA, 34-17.

   MONDAY NIGHT, DECEMBER 8

   TAMPA BAY over *CAROLINA by 1

   Monday Night Football tends to bring out the best in everyone. Both teams have snuck up on

   the public, sporting identical 9-3 records, including matching 6-0 home records, and this

   game will go a long way towards deciding who walks away with the NFC South crown.

   Carolina may have more weapons on offense, but the Bucs have a superior defense. That

   advantage will play a big role in stopping a Panthers team that has struggled with the passing

   game. The Bucs can play effectively vs. Carolina’s running backs and force Delhomme

   into making mistakes – a trait the Cajun has never really outgrown. TAMPA BAY 17-16.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:21pm
9. 0 likes

   STATFOX

   12/4/2008 (105) LOUISVILLE at (106) RUTGERS

   This should be the last game of the season in all likelihood for

   Louisville. The Cardinals once seemed destined for a bowl berth

   this season but four SU & ATS losses in a row have doomed the

   campaign. During that stretch, they have turned the ball over

   14 times and have scored just 17.3 PPG. On the other sideline,

   Rutgers has taken the latter part of the season as an opportunity

   to get things turned around. The Knights have won five straight

   games, including upset routs of Pittsburgh and South Florida. They

   have poured in 42 PPG over their last four games. At this point in

   the year, there just seems to be too much

   momentum and confidence on the side

   of the hosts, while the visitors may have

   already packed it in. Lay the points.

   Play: Rutgers -12

   12/6/2008 (109) NAVY vs. (110) ARMY

   It’s said that the Army-Navy game is the

   greatest rivalry in college football, and

   perhaps all of sports. However, rivalries

   are built on competitive play, and this

   series simply hasn’t had it of late. In

   fact, based upon overall success over

   the past six seasons, and six straight

   wins head-to-head, the Midshipmen

   have completely distanced themselves

   from Army where football is concerned.

   Furthermore, the closest game that these

   teams have played in that stretch has

   been 12 points, a margin wide enough

   to cover the pointspread for this year’s

   contest. Ask yourself this…has Army

   done anything this season to make you

   believe that they have closed the gap

   on what has been a 28.1 PPG average winning margin for Navy

   since ’02? The Middies are headed to another bowl game. The

   Knights are no better as they’ve been in recent years. There’s just

   no reason to expect anything else than what we’ve become used

   to seeing in this series.

   Play: Navy -11

   12/6/2008 (121) CINCINNATI at (122) HAWAII

   Cincinnati has clinched a berth in the BCS, and could reasonably

   take this trip to Hawaii and use it as a celebration for the

   accomplishment. Don’t expect that to happen. This Bearcats’ team

   has shown the tenacity to take care of business under Brian Kelly.

   Neither he, nor his team, will be satisfied with going into January’s

   game off of a loss. Hawaii is a middle of the pack team in the WAC

   conference. How often do you get the opportunity to lay just 7-1/2

   points with a BCS team on the road versus a WAC club that isn’t

   Boise St? It’s rare indeed. If you consider that the three toughest

   opponents that the Warriors have played this season (Florida,

   Oregon State, Boise State) all beat them by at least 20 points and

   by an average of 34.7 PPG, it shouldn’t be hard to understand the

   value with Cincinnati. The Bearcats are worthy of that grouping.

   Play: Cincinnati -7.5

   12/6/2008 (127) E CAROLINA at (128) TULSA

   There should be some basic laws of

   college football betting to be followed.

   On that list should be a point to never

   lay 13 points with a team that gave up

   70 points at anytime during the season.

   Such is the case for Tulsa, who yielded

   that much to Houston, one of six games

   in which it allowed 30 points or more.

   Take a look at this trend on Tulsa when

   playing in this pointspread range: TULSA

   is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a home

   favorite of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992.

   The average score was TULSA 31.6,

   OPPONENT 24.7 - (Rating = 1*). The

   Pirates meanwhile, have been a worthy

   underdog under Skip Holtz (19-7 ATS)

   and come off their best offensive effort of

   the season vs. UTEP, where they scored

   53 points and gained 475 yards from

   scrimmage. Another solid offensive effort

   should be expected here against Tulsa,

   making ECU worthy of your betting dollar

   at +13.

   Play: E Carolina +13

   12/6/2008 (129) BOSTON COLLEGE vs. (130) VIRGINIA TECH

   In its last six games, Virginia Tech has gone 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS while

   scoring 18.5 PPG. Does that seem conference-title and BCS bowl

   worthy to you? Boston College has gone on a 8-2 SU & 6-3 ATS

   run in its L10 games, boasting several high profile wins. Sometimes

   simplicity might be the best way in looking at a game, especially

   when the pointspread indicates that whoever wins the game

   essentially covers the pointspread as well. The Eagles should have

   been here a year ago behind QB Matt Ryan. While a year later, they

   are still the better team in this game as illustrated by the Outplay

   Factor Ratings (+7.3 to +4.9). Unless this game end up in the low

   teen’s, I don’t see how Tech can score enough points to win.

   Play: Boston College -1

   TOP STATFOX POWER RATING

   EDGES:

   1. MIDDLE TENN ST (+4.5) over LA LAFAYETTE 8.5

   2. FLORIDA (-10.5) over ALABAMA 7.5

   3. TROY (-10) over ARKANSAS ST 7

   4. NAVY (-10.5) over ARMY 5.5

   5. UCLA (+30.5) over USC 4.5

   6. RUTGERS (-13) over LOUISVILLE 3

   TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY

   FACTOR RATING EDGES:

   1. ARIZONA (-9.5) over ARIZONA ST 5.5

   2. S FLORIDA (+7) over W VIRGINIA 4

   3. FLORIDA (-10.5) over ALABAMA 3.5

   4. CALIFORNIA (-33.5) over WASHINGTON 3.5

   5. TROY (-10) over ARKANSAS ST 3

   6. MISSOURI (+14) over OKLAHOMA 3

   TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 15 (ATS & Total)

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play Under - Any team against the total (TULSA, MISSOURI/OKLAHOMA) - after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more

   last game against opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game. (72-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.2%, +36.8

   units. Rating=3*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (10-7). L3 Seasons: (47-31). L10 Seasons: (102-64). Since 1992: (118-71).

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (PITTSBURGH, S FLORIDA) - off a home win, in

   December games. (49-17 since 1992.) (74.2%, +30.3 units. Rating=3*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (11-2). L5 Seasons: (15-5). L10: (33-11).

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play Over - Any team against the total (TROY, E CAROLINA) - after beating the spread by more than 21 points in their

   previous game, in December games. (38-12 since 1992.) (76.0%, +24.8 units. Rating=3*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (115) WASHINGTON vs. (116) CALIFORNIA

   WASHINGTON is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses this season. The average score was

   WASHINGTON 12.8, OPPONENT 38.1 - (Rating = 5*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (133) MISSOURI vs. (134) OKLAHOMA

   OKLAHOMA is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season. The average score was OKLAHOMA

   53.7, OPPONENT 29.4 - (Rating = 5*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (131) ALABAMA vs. (132) FLORIDA

   FLORIDA is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was

   FLORIDA 49.2, OPPONENT 21.1 - (Rating = 4*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (123) ARKANSAS ST vs. (124) TROY

   ARKANSAS ST is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The

   average score was ARKANSAS ST 24, OPPONENT 29.6 - (Rating = 4*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (133) MISSOURI vs. (134) OKLAHOMA

   OKLAHOMA is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) in December games since 1992. The average score was OKLAHOMA 25.7,

   OPPONENT 17.5 - (Rating = 4*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (111) PITTSBURGH vs. (112) CONNECTICUT

   Randy Edsall is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in home games off a road loss against a conference rival as the coach of CONNECTICUT.

   The average score was Edsall 27.1, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 4*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (8-4). L5 Seasons: (13-6). L10: (27-11).

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (109) NAVY vs. (110) ARMY

   ARMY is 7-25 ATS (-20.5 Units) after a bye week since 1992. The average score was ARMY 16.8, OPPONENT 31.4

   - (Rating = 3*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (117) USC vs. (118) UCLA

   Pete Carroll is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) in the second half of the season as the coach of USC. The average score was

   Carroll 38.4, OPPONENT 15.8 - (Rating = 3*)

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (131) ALABAMA vs. (132) FLORIDA

   Urban Meyer is 26-6 ATS (+19.4 Units) after playing a non-conference game in all games he has coached since 1992. The

   average score was Meyer 39.3, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 4*)

   STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (119) ARIZONA ST vs. (120) ARIZONA

   The UNDERDOG is 13-3 ATS in ARIZONA ST-ARIZONA series since ‘92.

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (109) NAVY vs. (110) ARMY

   NAVY is 9-5 SU & 11-3 ATS vs. ARMY since 1994.

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (115) WASHINGTON vs. (116) CALIFORNIA

   The OVER is 8-1 in the CALIFORNIA-WASHINGTON series since 1992.

   Wednesday, 12/03/2008 (101) MIDDLE TENN ST vs. (102) LA LAFAYETTE

   The UNDERDOG is 6-0 SU & ATS in L6 games of MIDDLE TENN ST-LA LAFAYETTE series.

   Saturday, 12/06/2008 (119) ARIZONA ST vs. (120) ARIZONA

   The UNDER is 7-1 in the L8 games between ARIZONA & ARIZONA ST.

   

   posted by phantom

   Dec. 4 2008 2:25pm
10. 0 likes

    STATFOX

    12/4/2008 (103) OAKLAND at (104) SAN DIEGO

    Several things have to be in place when deciding whether or not to back

    a double-digit favorite in the NFL, particularly this season where DD dogs

    have enjoyed so much success against the number. The first thing is a

    clear talent differential. In this case, San Diego was supposed to have

    that talent edge, but to me, it’s painfully obvious that this team has been

    overrated all season long. Injury woes have hurt, but the bigger problem

    has been that this team can’t run the ball anymore. Strangely, they are

    almost one-dimensional. Because of it, they are in a fade system this week

    vs. Oakland: Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO)

    - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPR)

    against a team with a poor rushing defense

    (>=4.5 YPR), after gaining 75 or less rushing

    yards last game. (47-21 since 1983.) (69.1%,

    +23.9 units. Rating = 2*). The other factor a

    10-point favorite must possess is motivation.

    At 4-8, where is this mojo supposed to come

    from? The Chargers have also scored just

    16.5 PPG over their L4. This simply isn’t a

    team that should be favored by so much.

    Play: Oakland +10.5

    12/7/2008 (135) CINCINNATI at (136)

    INDIANAPOLIS

    Talk about teams not worthy of double-digit

    spreads. Consider the Indianapolis Colts,

    winners of five straight games but by a

    combined total of 20 points. Manning & Co.

    just aren’t firing on all cylinders and it’s going

    to take a much better effort to cover 14-points

    in this game, regardless of the opponent.

    The Colts have scored just 20.4 PPG in their

    last seven, so it’s been a prolonged stretch

    of offensive mediocrity. Additionally, even in

    their best seasons, Indy has struggled in putting the worst of foes away:

    Dungy is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games vs. poor offensive teams -

    scoring 17 or less points/game as the coach of INDIANAPOLIS. They’ve

    lost six straight ATS vs. teams that give up 24 PPG or more, averaging

    24.7 PPG in that stretch. With the offense not performing up to par,

    Manning’s unit will be fortunate to reach that total.

    Play: Cincinnati +14

    12/7/2008 (145) WASHINGTON at (146) BALTIMORE

    For whatever the reason, Washington seems to play its best football

    away from home. The Redskins have lost four of their L5 games at home,

    while going 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season. They score

    nearly a TD more per game on the road as well. Here they will be hard

    pressed to score against a Baltimore team that allows just 10 PPG at

    home. However, Washington might not need that many points to stay

    within 5-points of the Ravens, as points figure to be hard to come by.

    The Ravens’ inability to generate much through the air makes them a

    lousy favorite to back, particularly in this spot: Play Against - Home teams

    (BALTIMORE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average

    passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games. (60-30 over the last 5

    seasons.) (66.7%, +27 units. Rating = 2*). Look for Washington to do just

    enough offensively to cover and perhaps pull the upset.

    Play: Washington +5

    12/7/2008 (151) NY JETS at (152) SAN

    FRANCISCO

    It was disappointing to see the Jets come

    out so flat last week against Denver, but they

    stand a good chance to rebound here in San

    Francisco. The 49ers simply haven’t matched

    up with teams that share the same strengths

    as New York, primarily stuffing the run on

    defense, and the ability to put points on the

    board offensively. Take a look at the trends:

    SAN FRANCISCO is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units)

    versus good rushing defenses - allowing

    <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992. The

    average score was SAN FRANCISCO 19.2,

    OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 2*) AND SAN

    FRANCISCO is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) vs.

    good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more

    points/game since 1992. The average score

    was SAN FRANCISCO 20.1, OPPONENT

    25.6 - (Rating = 1*). New York is 8-1 ATS

    under Mangini bouncing back from a doubledigit

    loss. I like their chances to do so again.

    Play: NY Jets -3.5

    12/7/2008 (159) DALLAS at (160) PITTSBURGH

    Dallas is a team that rides the wave of momentum. In their worst state,

    the Cowboys can look awful. In better times, they can be the best team in

    the NFL. At this point, it seems that the Cowboys are back on the upward

    swing. That could spell trouble for Pittsburgh, who hosts them this week.

    The line (Pit -3) fits in well with a trend in which the Cowboys have thrived:

    DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over

    the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 27.7, OPPONENT

    14.6 - (Rating = 2*). In other words, when matched against other top level

    teams in games that are supposed to be competitive, HC Wade Phillips’

    team has been at its best. The Cowboys will need that type of effort again,

    but with the offense clicking once again, they should get it.

    Play: Dallas +3

    TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:

    1. SAN DIEGO (-10) over OAKLAND 9

    2. PITTSBURGH (-3) over DALLAS 7

    3. ARIZONA (-13.5) over ST LOUIS 5.5

    TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:

    1. ARIZONA (-13.5) over ST LOUIS 6.5

    2. PITTSBURGH (-3) over DALLAS 6

    3. SAN DIEGO (-10) over OAKLAND 6

    TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 14 (ATS & Total)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (149) ATLANTA vs. (150) NEW ORLEANS

    Play Over - Home teams against the total (NEW ORLEANS) - poor rushing team (70-95 RY/game) against a team with

    an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game. (32-7 over the last 10

    seasons.) (82.1%, +24.3 units. Rating=4*)

    The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (11-2). L5 Seasons: (18-3). Since 1983: (62-44).

    Monday, 12/08/2008 (163) TAMPA BAY vs. (164) CAROLINA

    Play On - Any team (CAROLINA) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams

    (60% to 75%). (34-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating=4*)

    The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (8-1). L5 Seasons: (15-2). Since 1983: (68-46).

    MULTIPLE GAMES

    Play On - Road teams (ST LOUIS, KANSAS CITY) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, terrible team,

    winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season. (24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units.

    Rating=3*)

    The situation’s record this season is: (2-1). L3 Seasons: (16-2). L10 Seasons: (39-22). Since 1983: (102-74).

    TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 14 (ATS & Total)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (139) HOUSTON vs. (140) GREEN BAY

    GREEN BAY is 26-3 OVER (+22.7 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992. The

    average score was GREEN BAY 28.8, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 6*)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (155) KANSAS CITY vs. (156) DENVER

    DENVER is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The

    average score was DENVER 20.1, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 5*)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (147) PHILADELPHIA vs. (148) NY GIANTS

    Tom Coughlin is 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game as the coach of NY

    GIANTS. The average score was Coughlin 24.3, OPPONENT 19.1 - (Rating = 5*)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (135) CINCINNATI vs. (136) INDIANAPOLIS

    Marvin Lewis is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games as the coach

    of CINCINNATI. The average score was Lewis 20.8, OPPONENT 14.5 - (Rating = 5*)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (143) MINNESOTA vs. (144) DETROIT

    DETROIT is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average

    score was DETROIT 17.1, OPPONENT 28.1 - (Rating = 4*)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (143) MINNESOTA vs. (144) DETROIT

    DETROIT is 13-1 OVER (+11.9 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was

    DETROIT 19.9, OPPONENT 31.9 - (Rating = 5*)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (155) KANSAS CITY vs. (156) DENVER

    Mike Shanahan is 27-50 ATS (-28 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games as the coach of DENVER. The

    average score was Shanahan 22.3, OPPONENT 21.7 - (Rating = 2*)

    Thursday, 12/04/2008 (103) OAKLAND vs. (104) SAN DIEGO

    OAKLAND is 17-38 ATS (-24.8 Units) in December games since 1992. The average score was OAKLAND 18.7, OPPONENT

    23.4 - (Rating = 2*)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (161) NEW ENGLAND vs. (162) SEATTLE

    Mike Holmgren is 24-6 OVER (+17.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play as the coach of SEATTLE.

    The average score was Holmgren 28.2, OPPONENT 25 - (Rating = 4*)

    TOP NFL STATFOX HEAD-TO-HEAD TRENDS - WEEK 14 (ATS & Total)

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (149) ATLANTA vs. (150) NEW ORLEANS

    ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS at NEW ORLEANS since 1992.

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (147) PHILADELPHIA vs. (148) NY GIANTS

    The UNDER is 11-3 in the NY GIANTS-PHILADELPHIA series in Ny Giants since 1995.

    Thursday, 12/04/2008 (103) OAKLAND vs. (104) SAN DIEGO

    The UNDER is 10-3 in the SAN DIEGO-OAKLAND series in San Diego since 1995.

    Sunday, 12/07/2008 (143) MINNESOTA vs. (144) DETROIT

    The OVER is 10-4 in the DETROIT-MINNESOTA series in Detroit since 1994.

    Monday, 12/08/2008 (163) TAMPA BAY vs. (164) CAROLINA

    The UNDER is 7-1 in the CAROLINA-TAMPA BAY series in Carolina since 1995

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:27pm
11. 0 likes

    WINNING POINTS

    ****BEST BET

    ARIZONA* over ARIZONA STATE by 28

    Although the fact that the Wildcats are finally bowl eligible for the first time ever

    under Mike Stoops, the regular season will not be deemed a success at all unless

    they win this game. In fact, with two weeks to prepare we expect this to be THE

    bowl game for them this year, and we will call for them to break it open vs. an

    opponent that actually brings little to the table. Yes, the Sun Devils also can qualify

    for a minor bowl spot if they win this week, but the current 3-0 run that has

    them in such a position carries almost no meaning at all. It was simply a case of

    catching the lower echelon of the Pac 10 in succession, but note that even the

    scoreboards vs. weak sisters Washington, Washington State and U.C.L.A. told

    fables anyway. An offensive explosion to score 104 points? Hardly. They went +8

    in turnovers in those games, with the defense directly scoring six touchdowns, as

    an offense that never found a direction this season continued to flounder. Last

    week’s win over U.C.L.A. was particularly humbling, with only 10 first downs and

    122 yards, netting less than a full yard per rush. Willie Tuitama and a deep corps

    of Wildcat receivers (four players have 37 catches or more), plus the running of Nic

    Grigsby, sets a pace here that the Devils can not match. ARIZONA 42-14.

    **PREFERRED

    NAVY over ARMY by 25 (at Philadelphia)

    Stan Brock did the best thing that he could do at West Point in terms of competing

    against most of the teams on the schedule – go back to purely option football,

    which not only shortens the number of plays per game, but also gives the smaller

    and slower Cadets a chance to use tactics that their opponents will rarely see. And

    in going 6-3 ATS against non-Commander in Chief opponents, it worked. But

    against Air Force, which was well-versed in such a style of football, Army was held

    to a season low of 143 yards rushing in a non-cover, scoring on the first drive and

    getting blanked the rest of the way. We see more of the same here. While it is

    Option vs. Option on the surface, the Black Knight offensive playbook is nowhere

    near what the Midshipmen can put into play, and neither is the talent in the skill

    positions. That means a Navy defense that sees these schemes every day in practice

    can easily bottle up an offense that lacks sophistication, which sets up field position

    for the Midshipmen throughout, and also a chance to wear the Army defense

    out behind emerging QB Ricky Dobbs. And with Navy having won the last six in

    this series by 169 points, with none of them closer than a dozen, the superiority

    between the programs is not properly reflected in this line. NAVY 32-7

    *CLOSE CALLS

    UL-Lafayette* over Middle Tennessee by 3 (Wednesday)

    The last home game for Tyrell Fenroy and Michael Desormeaux should call for

    some special focus by the Cajuns, but how damaging was that destruction at Troy

    do to their psyche? LOUISIANA 34-31.

    Rutgers* over Louisville by 12 (Thursday)

    Scarlet Knights enter this one on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll, including stunning Big

    East wins at Pittsburgh and South Florida by a combined 53 points. The Cardinals

    have not won or covered since October. It is easier to practice hard this late in the

    season when you have momentum. RUTGERS 33-21.

    M.A.C. CHAMPIONSHIP (Friday at Detroit)

    Ball State over Buffalo by 21

    Not much of a title game here, with the three best teams in the M.A.C. all residing

    in the west, and with Ball State having trounced the Bulls 104-39 head-to-head

    the last two seasons. But also no reason at all to let up in front of the national cameras,

    and with bowl destinationss still in play. BALL STATE 38-17.

    Connecticut* over Pittsburgh by 4

    Huskies get to play on their home turf for the first time in over a month, while the

    Panthers may have a difficult time reaching the same emotional peak they had vs.

    West Virginia. CONNECTICUT 20-16.

    West Virginia* over South Florida by 7

    A double revenge motive should definitely bring some added fire from the home

    team, especially for Pat White. playing in his final game in Morgantown, after he

    was injured early in last year’s 21-13 road loss. But trusting Bill Stewart to maximize

    any situation is certainly not in our own playbook these days. WEST VIRGINIA

    26-19.

    California* over Washington by 35

    If ever a team did not need to be playing in the month of December, especially off

    of a bye week, these downtrodden Huskies fit the bill. But therre is no particular

    reason for Jeff Tedford to go out of his way to make this worse than it has to be.

    CALIFORNIA 45-10.

    Southern Cal over U.C.L.A.* by 34

    The line would be no worse than pick’em to offer a Prop that the Trojan defense

    out-sores the Bruin offense. SOUTHERN CAL 37-3.

    Cincinnati over Hawaii* by 14

    With the Big East trophy in hand, and a BCS bowl on deck, the Bearcats have

    every right to hit the beach and enjoy themselves. But this year’s Hawaii squad is

    not good enough to take advantage. CINCINNATI 34-20.

    Troy* over Arkansas State by 11

    A Trojan win wraps up the Sun Belt crown, but an upset by the Red Wolves could

    throw it into a three-way tie. Was Arkansas State looking ahead in that sluggish win

    over North Texas, or was it a sign of fatigue? TROY 30-19.

    Florida International* over Western Kentucky by 6

    It is difficult to imagine the Golden Panthers finding much interest here off of that

    draining loss to their arch rivals last week, but the Hilltoppers have not played

    since the middle of November, and that is a long time for players to stay interested

    off of a bad season. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 27-21.

    CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

    Tulsa* over East Carolina by 11

    At another time our lean in a spot like this might go to the superior defense, but

    the gap at QB is so wide that it must be respected, especially with East Carolina

    also having to go on the road for the third time in four weeks, to a site where no

    one has slowed the Golden Hurricanes down all season. TULSA 38-27.

    A.C.C. CHAMPIONSHIP (at Tampa)

    Virginia Tech over Boston College by 3

    We are not quite sure that the winner here deserves the nice trophy and BCS bid

    that comes with it, and it will not even be pretty to watch – two lousy offenses are

    further handcuffed here by the fact that the opposing defensive coordinators will

    be seeing these playbooks for the fourth time since last November. Slight edge to

    the Hokies because they may make fewer mistakes. VIRGINIA TECH 19-16.

    S.E.C. CHAMPIONSHIP (at Atlanta)

    Florida over Alabama by 7

    It is not easy to even make a lean vs. these surging Gators, much less a bigger play,

    but for as brilliant as they have been there are some matchup considerations here

    that put the underdog in the hunt, as the Alabama defensive front fights its way

    into opposing backfields enough that Tim Tebow will lack the time to find many

    of the options in the Florida playbook that he executes so well. FLORIDA 27-20.

    BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP (at Kansas City)

    Oklahoma over Missouri by 15

    Yes, it would be a fitting close to the Big 12 career of Chase Daniel if he threw a

    monkey wrench into the BCS picture, but we have already seen this move. The

    Sooners controlled Missouri by 31 points in last year’s two head-to-head meetings,

    and the Tigers failed in every conference challenge this season. Daniel is terrific,

    the rest of the team not so much. OKLAHOMA 42-27.

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:27pm
12. 0 likes

    WINNING POINTS

    ****BEST BET

    New England over *Seattle by 24

    Mike Holmgren would have been better off opening a coffee stand instead

    of coaching one more year in Seattle.The Seahawks are as dreadful as their

    2-10 mark shows. They are 1-5 at home this season, 1-4-1 ATS. Now New

    England comes calling. The Patriots are off a terrible home loss to

    Pittsburgh. New England has responded every time to a loss.The Patriots

    have yet to lose two games in a row. It won’t happen here. Prior to that loss

    against the Steelers’ top-ranked defensive unit, the Patriots had put up 511

    and 530 yards, respectively, against the Jets and Dolphins. Bill Belichick’s

    well-coached troops will find Seattle’s soft, inviting defense much more to

    their liking than Pittsburgh’s rugged crew. Matt Cassel has played himself

    into a big contract by surprising many people this season with his outstanding

    play. Randy Moss has become his usual dangerous self thanks to

    Cassel’s improvement. The Patriots’ ground attack may get back LaMont

    Jordan (check status). Seattle has a Catch-22 problem on defense. The

    Seahawks don’t get enough of a pass rush if they blitz. If they blitz, though,

    they’re weak pass coverage becomes even weaker. Seattle ranked second

    from the bottom in pass defense going into last Sunday.The Seahawks had

    allowed 19 touchdown passes. Patrick Kerney still has a share of the sack

    leader for Seattle with five even though he’s missed the last five games and

    is out for the season. Seattle’s offense is just as bad failing to gain 300 yards

    in eight of its last nine games. Matt Hasselbeck isn’t all the way back from

    his back and knee injuries. His receiving corps leaves much to be desired.

    There’s no stud at running back with Julius Jones and Maurice Morris splitting

    the load. Belichick should devise a solid game plan to stop this

    mediocre bunch, while Cassel and Moss take care of the offensive end.

    NEW ENGLAND 34-10.

    ***BEST BET

    *Green Bay over Houston by 22

    It’s evident at this point that Green Bay isn’t as good as last season when it

    reached the NFC championship game only to lose to eventual Super Bowl

    champion the New York Giants. Still, the Packers are better than their 5-7

    record may indicate. Green Bay has lost four games by a combined 11

    points, including an overtime loss at Tennessee and a missed field goal on

    the final play at Minnesota.The Packers have covered eight of their last 12

    home contests.They are extremely tough at Lambeau Field during the frigid

    months of December and January.The Packers are 29-4 SU in their last 33

    home games during those two months. That’s a winning percentage of

    more than 87 percent. Houston has lost 17 of 22 away games under Gary

    Kubiak. The Texans have covered only 30 percent of their past 13 road

    matchups. They have won just once in their last nine away games. This

    marks Houston’s third road game in four weeks.The warm-weather Texans

    will be traveling here on a short week following an emotional Monday

    night game against division rival Jacksonville. That was their first-ever

    Monday night home game.They are not used to short practice weeks.This

    also could turn out to be the coldest and worst weather conditions the

    Texans have ever played in.Aaron Rodgers has the deepest set of wideouts

    in the league. Greg Jennings has turned into one of the best wide receivers

    in the game. Rodgers and Jennings can take advantage of a weak Houston

    secondary that had allowed 17 touchdown passes going into Monday’s

    game against Jacksonville.There’s a chance the Texans could get back starting

    quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub figures to be rusty if he does play.

    Backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels is an able downfield thrower, but has

    been prone to costly turnovers. The Packers can be dangerous having a

    league-high nine return touchdowns. GREEN BAY 36-14.

    **PREFERRED

    *New York Giants over Philadelphia by 18

    All you can do is admire the Giants – and ride them. No matter whom the

    opposition is the Giants win and cover.They are 14-3 ATS in their last 17

    when meeting teams above .500. In their last five games, the Giants have

    scored 35, 36, 30, 37 and 23 points against Dallas, Philadelphia, Baltimore,

    Arizona and Washington last week on the road in a flat spot. The Giants

    accomplish this because they probably have the best offensive line in the

    NFL, do feature the league’s best ground attack and have a fierce pass-rushing

    defense. New York can demolish teams that aren’t physical.The Eagles

    fall into that category.They are finesse, one-dimensional passing team.Their

    offensive line is soft.Their fullbacks and tight ends can’t run-block either.

    This puts everything on Donovan McNabb’s shoulders. McNabb has been

    up-and-down this season. He has a lot of wear and tear. Star tailback Brian

    Westbrook is banged-up.The Giants have exploited their physical edge by

    beating the Eagles in six of the last seven meetings. Even though the Eagles

    last played on Thanksgiving, this marks their third road game in four weeks.

    Philadelphia might also be without its best cornerback,Asante Samuel.The

    Giants are on a seven-game roll.This isn’t the spot to step in against them.

    NY GIANTS 31-13.

    *Arizona over St. Louis by 3

    No, the Rams probably won’t be able to prevent the Cardinals from possibly

    clinching their first division title in 33 years. But they can definitely

    cover this lopsided point spread with star running back Steven Jackson and

    Pro Bowl left tackle Orlando Pace back in the lineup. Jackson is a top-10

    running back,maybe a top-five runner when healthy. His presence makes a

    huge difference and keeps defenses from teeing off on shell shocked quarterback

    Marc Bulger.The Rams have committed 18 turnovers in their last

    five games. It’s hard for any offense to finish drives with that high of giveaway

    ratio. Now that unusually high number should come down with

    Jackson returning from injury.There’s no denying Bulger is having a dreadful

    season. However, Arizona is surrendering a league-high staggering 26

    touchdown passes this season. The Cardinals’ banged-up secondary is

    extremely vulnerable.The Rams have the weapons to take advantage with

    Torry Holt, speedy rookie Donnie Avery and Jackson out of the backfield.

    Sure the Cardinals have their own top-notch passing attack, but they still

    have one of the worst scoring defenses giving up 26.1 points per game.The

    Rams have won four of the past six years they have traveled to the desert

    to face Arizona.ARIZONA 31-28.

    CLOSE CALLS

    *San Diego over Oakland by 6 (Thursday)

    LaDainian Tomlinson’s favorite whipping team, Oakland, is visiting.

    Tomlinson has nine career 100-yard rushing games versus the Raiders. He’s

    scored 20 touchdowns against Oakland. The problem for the Chargers is

    they aren’t very good and Tomlinson hasn’t been nearly as fast or explosive

    as previous seasons. The Chargers have lost six games by an average of

    three points.They did manage to subdue the Raiders, 28-18, in Week 4. It

    was the 10th straight time San Diego has beaten Oakland. The Chargers

    have covered in nine of those victories. The Raiders have dropped 29 of

    their past 35 AFC West contests. SAN DIEGO 26-20.

    *Indianapolis over Cincinnati by 11

    The Bengals are battered physically and mentally. They’ve covered only

    once in their last nine games versus AFC competition. Even if Carson

    Palmer were to start, he’ll be rusty after missing the last seven games. It’s

    difficult, though, to lay double-digit points with the Colts even though

    they’ve won five in a row.They’ve been one of the most fortunate teams

    this season outscoring their foes by only seven points.Their best defensive

    player, safety Bob Sanders (check status), has missed the past two games

    with a knee injury. Opponents have nearly doubled the Colts in rushing

    yards. INDIANAPOLIS 27-16.

    *Chicago over Jacksonville by 7

    We have our doubts if warm-weather Jacksonville will have any interest in

    this matchup, traveling to a cold-weather site on a short week following its

    Monday night game against division rival Houston.The Jaguars had failed to

    cover in 10 of their last 11 grass games entering Monday’s game versus the

    Texans. It’s become clear in this very disappointing season that the Jaguars

    clearly miss Mike Smith, their former defensive coordinator and now head

    coach of Atlanta.The Bears should be pumped off three straight road contests.

    CHICAGO 24-17.

    *Tennessee over Cleveland by 15

    Double-digit ‘dogs have been golden this season covering 17 of 21 times

    (81 percent). Cleveland has covered in 15 of its last 18 games versus clubs

    with a winning record. Despite these strong trends,we’re leery of backing

    the Browns against such a strong team with their messed up organization,

    morale issues and injuries to quarterback Derek Anderson and tight end

    Kellen Winslow (check status). The Browns are down to third-string journeyman

    dink-and-dunker Ken Dorsey at quarterback with Brady Quinn and

    Anderson out. Cleveland is surrendering an average of nearly 25 points in

    their last five games.TENNESSEE 21-6.

    Minnesota over *Detroit by 4

    The Lions have been outscored by an average of 15.8 points per game on

    their exorable march to 0-16.They’ve dropped 19 of their last 20 games. It’s

    more about comedy than competitiveness in Detroit.The Lions have been

    especially brutal at home, failing to cover during all five of their games at

    Ford Field this season losing by a combined 100 points. Daunte Culpepper

    already has been pulled three times – and he’s only been around for four

    games. Don’t forget, however, that Minnesota barely held off the Lions as

    two-touchdown favorites during their first meeting in Week 6, winning just

    12-10. MINNESOTA 24-20.

    *Baltimore over Washington by 6

    The Giants showed last week that Washington isn’t anything special.The

    Redskins have been outscored by 14 points on the season.They are averaging

    17.3 points, which is five points under the league average. Like the

    Giants, the Ravens are physical and can be intimidating, especially at home.

    The Ravens have held eight opponents under 14 points.The Redskins rely

    on Clinton Portis. He’s not 100 percent, though, and the Ravens haven’t

    permitted a 100-yard rusher in a league-high 31 straight games. Jason

    Campbell is not a precise enough passer to seriously hurt Baltimore’s secondary.

    BALTIMORE 16-10.

    *New Orleans over Atlanta by 6

    The Falcons have been feisty on the road. Their 7-4 record is not a fluke.

    Rookie Matt Ryan has proven to be the real thing.However,Drew Brees can

    take advantage of a Falcons defense that has permitted 20 or more points

    in nine of their last 12 games. Brees has been tremendous in home games

    with a 17-to-four touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to a seven-to-

    10 touchdowns-to-interception ratio on the road.The Saints have won four

    of the past five in the series. Note that NFC South Division teams are 22-2

    SU at home, including 17-7 ATS.The Falcons’ run game will suffer with the

    loss of blocking tight end Ben Hartsock. NEW ORLEANS 30-24.

    New York Jets over *San Francisco by 2

    San Francisco has committed 28 turnovers, but has been much more competitive

    in the last four games under new coach Mike Singletary.The 49ers

    should be primed here since is their lone home game during a five-week

    span. New York is flying cross-country going on the road for the third time

    in four weeks.The Jets have topped 25 points in all but two of their last 10

    games, sparked by Thomas Jones scoring at least one touchdown in his past

    six games. However, the Jets have held only two quarterbacks – Ryan

    Fitzpatrick and Marc Bulger – to under 243 yards throwing. NY JETS 25-23.

    Miami over *Buffalo by 1

    After opening 5-1, the Bills have reversed themselves losing five of their

    past six games. Backup quarterback J.P. Losman may get the start if Trent

    Edwards (check status) isn’t recovered from last week’s groin injury.There

    shouldn’t be much of a drop-off if that’s the case because Edwards’ play has

    regressed. Marshawn Lynch does have 416 yards from scrimmage during

    the past three weeks,but the Bills have surrendered at least 20 points in six

    of their last eight matchups.The Bills won’t have a bad weather edge either

    since this game is set for the Rogers Centre in Toronto, which has a

    tractable roof in case of inclement weather. MIAMI 21-20.

    *Denver over Kansas City by 6

    Kansas City’s string of never having won at Invesco Field probably will continue.

    The Chiefs have given up 30 or more points in five of their last eight

    games. The home team is 10-2 SU in the series. Yet the Broncos are too

    reliant on the pass and their defense is too beat up to lay substantial points.

    Denver has picked off only five passes all season.The Chiefs stuck to the

    ground in beating the Broncos in Week 4 with Larry Johnson rushing for

    198 yards and scoring two touchdowns. Jay Cutler’s 361 yards passing wasn’t

    enough to overcome four turnovers. DENVER 27-21.

    *Pittsburgh over Dallas by 5

    Tony Romo and Terrell Owens are back in sync. But Dallas faces a supreme

    challenge even though Pittsburgh has failed to cover in four of their last

    five home contests.The Steelers haven’t allowed an opponent to reach 300

    yards of offense all season.The Steelers are outstanding versus the run.They

    also could have the best blitzing linebackers in the NFL.The Cowboys are

    without dangerous change-of-pace back Felix Jones and star tailback

    Marion Barber (check status) suffered a dislocated toe during Dallas’

    Thanksgiving victory over Seattle. PITTSBURGH 24-19.

    *Carolina over Tampa Bay by 6 (Monday)

    Tampa Bay held Carolina to 282 yards during a 27-3 victory in Week 6, but

    DeAngelo Williams has been the league’s hottest runner averaging 108.2

    yards in the last five games, scoring nine touchdowns during this time

    frame.The Buccaneers have to be aware of not just Williams, but also Steve

    Smith. He’s had five 100-yard receiving games during his last seven games

    versus Tampa Bay. Carolina has defeated Tampa Bay in eight of the past 11

    meetings, covering seven times. Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme is 7-

    2 against Tampa Bay. Note to totals players: The ‘over’ was 10-1-1 through

    Week 12 in Monday night games. CAROLINA 23-17.

    OVER/UNDER

    **UNDER: Cleveland at Tennessee – The Titans have held 14 of their

    last 16 opponents to under 18 points, while the Browns have quarterback

    injuries.

    OVER: St. Louis at Arizona – The Cardinals have scored at least 20

    points in 19 of their last 20 games, while going ‘over’ in their past seven

    home games.

    UNDER: Washington at Baltimore – The Ravens have a top-two

    defense, while Washington’s veteran defense can handle rookie quarterback

    Joe Flacco.

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:28pm
13. 0 likes

    NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

    UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

    Over the past 25 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 183-130. Over the last 8 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded 31 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS INCLUDING THIS YEAR'S 4th outright upset with TENNESSEE two weeks ago!!! Here is this week's Underdog Play of the Week

    Pittsburgh (+3) over CONNECTICUT

    The HT and Conn are both 3-1 SU in the series. Here in 2006, Pitt suffered a tough loss as they led 31-14 in the 4Q but on the last play UC got a TD to force OT and won 46-45 in 2 OT’s on a 2 pt conv. LY Pitt was -8’ at home but UC led 27-7 at the half with a 218-101 yd edge (34-7 in 3Q) and rolled 34-14. Conn is 7-2 ATS as a HD and Pitt is 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS after the Brawl. This will be a battle between the top 2 backs in the BE. Conn is off a disappointing 17-13 loss to USF. QB Lorenzen has thrown for just 95 ypg (44%) with a 1-0 ratio the L/2 since returning from inj. He has had little help at the WR position. RB Brown was slighted by Doak Walker voters despite rushing for an NCAA leading 148 ypg (5.4) & 16 TD’s. He’ll have a chip on his shoulder. Their defense is all’g 120 rush ypg (3.6). Pitt defeated WV in The Backyard Brawl for the 2nd year in a row 19-15. Shady McCoy scored with :52 left and rushed for a career high 183 yds. QB Stull is avg 197 ypg (59%) with an 8-7 ratio. McCoy continues to be the star of the show avg 119 ypg (5.0) and 20 TD’s. Their defense is all’g 119 ypg rush (3.5) including 109 ypg in BE play incl holding WV to 157 rush yds. Pitt has off (#37-59) and ST’s (#42-102) edges while Conn has a slight def edge (#21-25) despite playing the weaker sked (#54-25). The Huskies have been solid at home with a 29-9 record at Rentschler Field and are 6-0-1 ATS in home finales since moving to IA. Pitt has been bowl-less the L/3Y and will finish strong here with the Sun Bowl on the horizon. FORECAST: Pittsburgh 27 CONNECTICUT 17

    KEY SELECTIONS

    4* † Florida over Alabama - SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - Georgia Dome.

    The last time these 2 SEC powers met in the SEC Championship gm (1999), #7 Alabama defeated #5 Florida 34-7 (UF -6’). The last meeting between these 2 teams was a 28-13 UF win in Gainesville in ‘06 (UF -15). UF is 0-5-2 ATS since ‘94 in this series (3-4 SU) and the Gators are 7-8 SU & 6-9-1 ATS vs SEC West schools (2-1 SU/ATS TY). These 2 teams have met 5 times in the SEC Champ gm with UF holding a 3-2 advantage (2-2-1 ATS). UF is the only team in the nation with a top 5 off (#2) and def (#5) and they also have our #6 sp tms. Bama ranks #21 on off, #6 on def & #47 on sp tms. UF QB Tebow has brought his name back into the Heisman conversation leading the tm to 8 straight wins by an avg of 52-12 and is avg 192 ypg (65%) with a 25-2 ratio and 507 rush (3.7) with 12 TD. WR Harvin has 595 rec yds (17.0) and 538 rush (8. but is a ? for this gm after suffering an ankle inj in UF’s 45-15 win over rival FSU LW. UF has rushed for 300+ yds in the L/3 gms. UF is allowing 102 ypg rush (3.3) and is #5 in our pass D rankings. #1 Bama is the only undefeated BCS team left and Saban has led his team to a 5 gm improvement over LY in just his 2nd yr at the helm. Bama is off a 36-0 win over rival Aub which ended Aub’s 6 gm Iron Bowl series win streak. UA has won gms with a strong rush attack avg 202 ypg (4. led by RB Coffee (1235, 6.2) and their strong defense (74 rush ypg allowed, 2.7, #9 pass D ranking). QB JP Wilson is more of a gm manager TY avg just 159 pass ypg (59%) with a 9-5 ratio. True frosh WR Jones (PS#1) leads the tm with 723 (15.7). UF is 5-0 ATS away from The Swamp TY (all as fav) but UA has 2 outright upsets as a dog away from Tuscaloosa TY (Clemson & UGA). While these are 2 of the top coaches in the country with superb game-planning, Meyer has the talent and speed edge and the Gators should be playing for their 2nd BCS Title in 3 yrs after a solid win over the Tide. FORECAST: Florida 41 Alabama 17

    3* TULSA over East Carolina - CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - TU has won and covered both in CUSA play. The Pirates’ ssn has been a roller coaster ride. They opened with wins over #17 VA Tech (27-22, +9’) and #8 WVU (24-3, +7’) and were ranked #15 after a victory over Tulane moved them to 3-0. EC then lost 3 in a row (OT at NCSt, at UVA), incl a 41-24 (-10’) home loss to Houston. EC finished the yr winning 5 of 6 with their only loss coming at S Miss (21-3, +3). EC is 4-8 ATS and ended the regular season on a 2-8 ATS run and did not cover in a true road gm the entire ssn (0-6, avg ATS loss by 10’). The Pirates are off a 53-21 (-6’) home win over UTEP, in which they outgained the Miners 475-370. EC had their highest rushing output of the ssn with 231 yds (4.4) and the 53 pts were 23 better than their previous season high (30 vs Mem). QB Pinkney has re-established himself as the starter, after splitting time with Kass (25-54, 321 yds, 2-2 ratio on yr) in the middle of the ssn. Pinkney is avg 188 ypg (64%) with an 11-7 ratio. RB Whitley leads the team with 563 yds (4.7). The WR position has been devastated by injuries and TE Drew is the leading active receiver with 547 yds (15.6). The Pirates rely on their D to win games. EC is #1 in CUSA allowing just 20.5 ppg and 329 ypg. DE CJ Wilson is #15 in NCAA with 17 tfl. Tulsa looked like a BCS buster early in the season, getting off to an 8-0 start (6-2 ATS), but a loss at Arkansas burst their bubble. TU was in a 3 way tie in CUSA West heading into the final week. The Hurricane got a win over Marshall and received some help as Rice defeated Houston, which put TU in the championship game for the 2nd year in a row. Tulsa went 7-1 in conf play, which earned them the home field advantage here and they have been dominant at home, going 5-0 SU/ATS against IA opp, with an avg cover by almost 21 pts. TU won at Marshall 38-35 (-16) LW as they outgained MU 516-437 but needed a 4Q FG to pull out the win. TU is #2 in NCAA avg 49 ppg and QB Johnson is #1 in pass eff, avg 306 ypg (66%) with a 42-13 ratio. The TU ground game often gets overlooked, but they are #7 in NCAA avg 259 ypg (5.6). RB Adams leads the way with 1,196 yds (6.0). Marion is the big play WR and leads the team with 1,058 rec yds (27.1!), incl a school-record 97 yd TD vs UTEP. Tulsa’s D has struggled at times. They are allowing 29 ppg and are #94 in NCAA allowing 401 ypg. TU avg 3 sacks per game (36 total), which is #6 in NCAA. The winner earns a trip to the Liberty Bowl to play an SEC opp, while the loser is likely headed to the GMAC Bowl. Tulsa is avg 61 ppg at home, while EC avg just 19 ppg on the road, so we will side with the home team which has yet to be challenged at Chapman Stadium. FORECAST: TULSA 47 East Carolina 20

    OTHER SELECTIONS

    2* TROY over Arkansas St - While Troy is 2-6 SU all-time vs Ark St, their 6 losses have been by a combined 20 points. In ‘06 here Troy was playing a meaningless game as the next week’s matchup vs Mid Tenn St would determine the SBC Title and ASU got a TD with :17 left to pull out a 33-26 road upset (+8). The only other SBC home loss for the Trojans came in ‘05 when they were knocked off by MT. The next time the Raiders came to town they were thrashed 45-7 (-12). Last year Troy only had a 158-151 yd edge at the half but shutout ASU 27-0 on the road (-5). Troy is 4-2 ATS vs conf foes TY while ASU is 1-5 (0-3 ATS on the road). Troy has lost 3 straight FHG SU but is fresh off a bye. Prior to the bye they beat ULL 48-3 and are currently the SBC leader at 5-1. They outgained ULL 459-255 and outFD’d them 26-12. QB Brown is avg 243 ypg (67%) with a 9-2 ratio vs SBC foes and RB Harris has 754 yds (5.. ASU plays for a 3rd straight week and is off a 33-28 win over N Texas making them bowl eligible for the 3rd time in 4 yrs. QB Leonard is avg 215 ypg (55%) with a 9-3 ratio and RB Arnold has 593 yds (4.9) vs SBC foes. Troy has edges on off (#55-78), def (#56-75) and spec tms (#27-71) and has scored 30 or more pts in 6 of L/7 gms. If ULL loses on Wed this would be the SBC Title game and we lean with the more experienced Trojans. FORECAST: TROY 34 Arkansas St 17

    OTHER GAMES

    Wednesday, December 3rd

    Middle Tenn at ULL - ULL is 4-1 SU in the series and LY was +13’ on the road but rolled up a dominating 528-256 yd edge and won 34-24. This was the FIFTH straight outright upset win in the series! Here in ‘06 MT was a dog for the only time in the L/5Y and pulled the upset 34-20 (+3). ULL is on a 3 gm losing streak and MT is on a 3 gm win streak and both teams are playing for a 6-6 season and bowl eligibility.

    Thursday, December 4th

    Louisville at RUTGERS - This is a battle between 2 teams moving in different directions with Rutgers proving to be one of the hottest teams in the BE (42 ppg L/4) vs a UL team that has dumped the last 4.The home team is 3-0 SU/ATS in their Big East meetings with both games decided by 3 pts the last 2 years and a 56-5 home blowout win by the Cards in ‘05. LY Rutgers led 35-17 on the road but Louisville rallied for a 41-38 win with a FG with :33 left. In 2006 here Louisville led by 18 in the 3Q and blew the lead the week after beating W Virg at home. Rutgers has the edges on offense (#36-52), defense (#36-79) and the home field advantage. UL is avg 175 rush ypg (4.5) and now faces a RU def all’g 147 ypg (3.9). Louisville is on an 0-4 SU & ATS run being outscored by 16 ppg while Rutgers has covered the last 8 (6-2 SU) by 13 ppg. Both teams are off a bye and should be well prepared. Rutgers looks to climb the bowl ladder and after a disappointing season UL needs the win to get to .500 and bowl eligibility.

    Friday, December 5th

    MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - † Buffalo vs Ball St - Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions. These teams have met just 4 times since Buffalo joined the MAC and Ball St has dominated going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS incl 3 straight covers. They have avg’d a combined 71 ppg with the lowest total being 62. LY Ball St easily covered as a 13’ HF winning 49-14. Ball St is 12-0 for the first time in their history. Their most wins previously was when they went 10-1 in 1978 when current HC Hoke was a player for the Cardinals. Buffalo’s 7-5 record is the Bulls’ first winning record since moving up to IA football in 1999. This is both teams’ first trip to the MAC Championship game and both are guaranteed their first ever bowl appearances. Ball St has gone 8-3 ATS incl 4-1 as an AF while Buffalo has gone 8-4 ATS incl 6-0 as an AD. They have faced 4 common opponents with Ball St going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS, while Buffalo went 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS. The Bulls came close to going 4-0 as a last second FG for the win vs CM hit the upright and they led WM by 14 with less than 5:00 left before losing in OT. Ball St had an extra 3 days to prepare as they closed the regular season on Tuesday with a 45-22 win over WM in a game in which they had a 452-347 yd edge. Buffalo played Friday and we won a 4H Small College Play on Kent St (+9’) as the Flashes caught the Bulls looking ahead to the MAC Championship. The Bulls who had the East Div locked up lost 24-21 and were outgained 426-385. The Cardinals have the offensive (#29-77) and defensive (#65-86) edges but the Bulls have played the tougher schedule (#84-120). Ball St QB Davis is avg 258 ypg (67%) with a 25-6 ratio. RB Lewis leads the MAC with 1,570 (5.7) with 20 rush TD and should do well against a Bulls defense that is allowing 4.7 ypc. The Cardinals top receiver is WR Orsbon with 52 (12.0). Buffalo QB Willy is avg 240 ypg (65%) with a 22-5 ratio. RB Starks, who missed 2 games with injuries, is #2 in the MAC in rush ypg (122.6) with a Buffalo single season record 1,226 yds (5.1) and 14 TD. Starks may be the Bulls best offensive hope as Ball St is allowing 4.3 ypc. The Bulls top receiver is Roosevelt with a Buffalo single season record 86 grabs (13.9). Ball St has won 11 of their 12 games by 12 pts or more while 7 of Buffalo’s games have been decided by 6 or less (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS). While this game looks like an offensive battle, it could be decided by the defenses. The Cardinals D is allowing just 16.7 ppg and 351.8 ypg compared to the Bulls’ defense that is allowing 27.8 ppg and 400.4 ypg.

    Saturday, December 6th

    † Navy 27 Army 13 - Philadelphia.

    Navy has dominated this series of late winning the last 6 in a row SU (5-1 ATS) by a combined score of 240-71! Last year Navy only had a 294-217 yard edge but won 38-3 and 66 of Navy’s yards came on their final drive running out the clock. Navy has now won 12 consecutive games vs Service Academy opps (11-1 ATS) and with a win in this one will capture their 6th straight Commander-In-Chief Trophy. Navy is off a shutout of N Ill (1st shutout since ‘04) in which their #85 defense held the Huskies to 251 yds (2nd lowest all’d TY). Navy’s D is only allowing 128 rush ypg (3.7). Soph QB Dobbs made his first career start on the road LW and had 124 rush (5.0) with just 32 pass yds (1 att). Dobbs has taken over the #64 offense for senior starter Kaheaku-Enhada (bothered all yr by hamstring inj but expected to play vs Army) and senior bkup Bryant (inj’d, then lost job to Dobbs). In the last 4 gms, Dobbs has 422 rush (4.5) and 173 pass with 8 TD combined. Dobbs led Navy to wins over SMU, rallied them from a 20 pt 4Q deficit vs Temple for an OT win, almost rallied them for a 4Q comeback vs ND (14 pts scored in final 2:00 in 6 pt loss), and led the team’s solid win at N Ill, so the future is bright at QB at the Naval Academy. SB White (873, 8.3) and FB Kettani (807, 5.3) lead the team in rushing, but Dobbs is 3rd (493, 4.7) despite only playing in 7 gms. Army switched back to the option offense this year and finally seemed to get on track in their 4th gm vs Texas A&M with 280 yds rushing. The biggest factor in Army’s 3-8 record is 28 TO’s including 23 fmbl’s (-12 TO margin). Army QB Bowden is the #2 rusher with 566 (3.1). FB Mooney is just the 10th Army player to rush for over 1,000 yds in a season and leads the team with 1,285 (6.0). These teams have both played Temple, Rutgers and Air Force, with Navy going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS (only ATS loss, a 33-27 win vs Temple -7), while Army was 0-3 SU & ATS. The most telling game is the Air Force matchup of option vs option. Navy won 33-27 as a 4 pt AD (with 2 blk’d punts ret’d for TD’s) while Army lost 16-7 as a 7’ pt HD. Even though Army, which is allowing just 124.8 ypg rush, has a slight def edge (#73-85), their #118 off will struggle against a def that has played against the option off every day in practice for years. Navy is 10-4 as a favorite away from Annapolis, but Army is 4-1 ATS as an AD TY.

    WEST VIRGINIA 20 Usf 17 -

    The Bulls have held the potent WV run attack to an avg of 160 ypg in their L/2 upset wins of #7 and #5 WV teams. LY the Mountaineers lost QB White late in the 2Q after he was hit in the right thigh on a running play as the Bulls won 21-13. USF won here in November in ‘06 but usually does not play well in cold weather incl their bowl loss to Oregon last year. These 2 teams have combined to avg 39 ppg in their 3 matchups. USF gained bowl eligibility after 3 straight losses with a 17-13 win over Conn. The Bulls’ swarming defense held the nation’s leading rusher (Brown) to 96 yds (3.4) and is all’g 94 ypg (2.. QB Grothe played at less than 100% (ankle) but still pulled out the huge win. Grothe is avg 266 ypg ttl offense. The USF backfield has been banged up, but is healthy here after a bye. WR Hester has 50 rec (10.9). WV is off a huge loss to Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. Three of WV’s four losses have been by a margin of 4 points or less. WV QB White (224 ttl ypg) & RB Devine (112 ypg, 6. have decent numbers but are nowhere near the offensive monster they were LY (24 ppg TY vs IA compared to 40 ppg LY). Their defense is all’g 194 ypg pass (56%) with a 12-12 ratio. WV has slight edges on offense (#30-42), def (#23-30) and ST’s (#41-63). USF is in the dog role after 19 straight as a favorite. The last 3 times as a dog USF has upset #7 WV, #17 Aub and #5 WV. Both teams want to finish strong this year after disappointing seasons. WV is off an emotional loss LW and looks to avenge B2B losses to USF who typically plays poorly when they travel north in Nov/Dec weather.

    CALIFORNIA 44 Washington 6 -

    It is strange to see these two playing another regular ssn game after their big rivalry matchups. Both squads return from byes but do so in different situations as the Bears are trying to improve their record to potentially reach the Holiday Bowl for the 2nd time in 3 yrs while the Huskies are trying to avoid an 0-12 campaign, which would make them the only winless team in IA. UW had their chances vs WSU but failed to pull away dropping their 9th straight lined game as QB Fouch (132 ypg, 45%, 4-12 ratio) continues to struggle due to inexperience around him. LY the Huskies rolled up 334 yards on the ground in their 37-23 upset of Cal at home (+7). The Bears put together a strong 2H vs the Cardinal in the “Big Game” as RB Best rushed for a career high 201 yds as he finally looks to be close to 100%. The QB carousel looks to be a one man show for now as Riley aims to start his 3rd consec here (148 ypg, 55%, 14-4 ratio in 8 sts) & will do so against a UW pass D allowing 220 ypg (68%) with a 23-7 ratio on the yr. Cal has had their share of problems in recent yrs as a 20 pt fav going just 3-9 ATS (did cover vs CSU TY). The Bears have turned around their pitiful ssn-ending trends in ‘08 however covering 4 of their L/5 placing them in another good spot here.

    Usc 31 UCLA 7 - The Trojans come into this matchup off another decisive win vs Notre Dame as they held the Irish to just 91 yds & 4 FD’s (ND didn’t record their initial 1st down until the last play of the 3Q). A win over the rival Bruins guarantees a 5th trip to the Rose Bowl in the L6Y. USC’s defense has been dominating as the have allowed a meager 22 pts in the 2H TY while allowing just 211 ypg (#1 NCAA). QB Sanchez will be making his first career start against their cross-town rival as he continues to improve his passing numbers on the ssn avg 230 ypg (65%) & a 28-9 ratio. LY USC had a 437-168 yard edge but was unable to get much going on offense in the 24-7 win (-19’). Bruin HC Neuheisel had his 1st year bowl aspirations ended in the desert LW despite outgaining ASU by a 306-122 clip as the Bruins allowed an NCAA-tying 4 def TD’s in the 34-9 loss (+10). UCLA QB Craft has now thrown 12 int’s compared to 0 TD’s in his last 4 games. Former Trojan OC Chow gets his 1st crack at his old team here as well, but the new coaching staff for the Bruins hasn’t fared as well in the conf home dog role going 1-2 ATS in ‘08 (outscored 65-16 in losses) while they were an outstanding 7-0 ATS in previous HC Dorrell’s tenure. They now get a chance to end USC’s BCS hopes for the 2nd time in 3 yrs as UCLA’s ‘06 upset of the Trojans here cost USC a trip to the National Championship gm. While this game may not have as much meaning, the Bruins are 19-5 ATS the L5Y off a SU loss & could keep this one a little closer than some would expect as Carroll has gone just 5-11 ATS as a DD AF including just 2-3 ATS TY.

    ARIZONA 27 Arizona St 17 -

    The Sun Devils have gone 5-1 SU in the battle for the Territorial Cup (nation’s oldest traveling trophy). They need just 1 more victory to turn a 2-6 midssn record into a bowl year at 6-6 after they took care of the Bruins last week in the desert as they were aided by an NCAA-tying record of 4 def TD’s. Not much went well on the offensive side of the ball for ASU as they mustered just 122 ttl yards for the game while recording just 1 more FD (10) than the amount of times they were forced to punt (9). The dog has covered 4 in a row while ASU’s Carpenter (215 ypg, 63%, 15-8 ratio) will be attempting to be the 1st QB in school history to go 4-0 vs the Wildcats but will have to avoid being on his back in the process as Devil QB’s have been sacked 31 times on the ssn (AZ 19 def sks). In ‘05 & ‘06 Arizona appeared poised to win but QB Tuitama was injured thus taking away any chances of a victory. LY he played the entire game & his 4 yd TD pass with :26 left gave them the backdoor cover (+6’) in a 20-17 loss. Arizona returns home from a late ssn bye in a series in which the home team has gone just 3-13 ATS. They will be looking to re-build some momentum after dropping 2 in a row SU and ATS in heartbreaking fashion as they stormed back from a 45-17 HT deficit to Oregon only to lose by 10 and then dropped a matchup to OSU a week later on an end of regulation Beaver FG. QB Tuitama (225 ypg, 64%, 19-7 ratio) is healthy for a 2nd consec ssn here and while ASU has been in spoiler mode the last two years keeping the Cats out of postseason play, Arizona has a chance to reverse that role here.

    Cincinnati 27 HAWAII 17 -

    The Bearcats are making their first trip to the Aloha State since the infamous game between these two in ‘02 when a brawl broke out between the players. UH won that game 20-19 (-3’). Hawaii is 4-2 SU but 0-2 ATS vs current Big East schools while Cincy is 2-0 ATS vs current WAC tms. Both tms have shuffled multiple QB’s throughout the year before finally settling on a signal caller (Eleven IA teams have started 3+ QB’s incl both of these teams). After juggling 4 QB’s for part of the ssn, UH turned to Alexander & it has paid dividends. Since starting the 2H vs Nevada & directing the Warriors to a last second win, UH has gone 4-1 with him under center. He’s avg 194 ypg (63%) with a 10-3 ratio & is coming off a career-best 315 yd outing vs Wazzu LW. WR’s Washington (49 rec, 12.8, 5 TD) & Salas (48 rec, 15.1, 3 TD) are his top 2 targets. UC has the edges on off (#57-96), def (#17-68) and ST (#3-115). After shuffling through 5 QB’s itself, UC QB Pike distanced himself from the pack & is avg 206 ypg (61%) with a 17-5 ratio. The Bearcats have a solid one-two punch at WR as the potent duo of Goodman (78 rec, 12.5, 7 TD) & Gilyard (67 rec, 14.7, 9 TD) headline a strong rec game. Gilyard is also a big threat on KR avg 28.4 ypr (#10 in the NCAA) with 2 TD. The Bearcats feature the #25 scoring D in the NCAA all’g just 19.8 ppg & have held 10 of 12 opp to 23 pts or less TY. The UC D will try to exploit a UH offense that is #115 in the NCAA in TO’s lost (33) & #117 in sacks allowed (44). UH has accepted a bowl bid to play at home in Hawaii & is playing B2B BCS foes to close out the reg ssn, while UC is playing a 7th consecutive week with a lengthy trip here. UC is fresh off wrapping up its 1st Big East Title and secured its 1st ever trip to a BCS bowl en route to tying the school record for most wins in a single season (10) & seeks win #11 here.

    FIU 30 WKU 20 -

    WKU is 2-1 SU in the series. In the Panthers’ 1st year of football (2002), they were held to 77 yards passing, their lowest output in their 7 years of existence. In their last meeting (2005), FIU got a 38-35 win at home with a 36 yd FG on the final play. They had a 492-347 yard edge. FlU played rival FAU last week and lost 57-50 in OT with QB McCall throwing for the school rec’d 400 yds. McCall is avg 186 ypg (52%) with a 14-9 ratio and WR Hilton has 39 rec (24.. In WKU’s last gm they lost 21-10 vs Mid Tenn and were outgained 313-281. QB Wolke had his best gm of the yr hitting 18 of 30 for 213 yds with a 1-1 ratio. He is avg 114 ypg (53%) with an 8-8 ratio. WKU has not played since Nov 15 (3 wks). FIU is still in an unfamiliar role as a fav, but we lean with the Panthers off of a tough loss.

    ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME - † Virginia Tech 17 Boston College 13 - Raymond James Stadium,

    “The Road to Tampa Bay.” This is a rematch of LY’s title game and VT’s 3rd Coastal Division Title in the 4 yrs since the ACC was split into 2 divisions. BC is also in its 2nd straight title game under 2nd year HC Jagodzinski. BC is 4-9 SU but 9-4 ATS in this series incl a 28-23 win over VT earlier this season but lost to the Hokies LY in the title game 30-16 despite outgaining VT 389-300 as QB Matt Ryan threw for 305 yds. In TY’s matchup the Eagles survived 2 IR TD’s and finished with 22-14 FD and 300-240 yds edges as they held onto a 28-17 HT lead. They have faced 4 common opp’s TY (GT, NC, FSU & MD) and VT went 3-1 SU & 2-2 ATS while BC went 2-2 SU/ATS. After dropping 2 straight conference games, the Eagles won 4 straight, incl LW’s 28-21 win over Maryland. RFr QB Davis, making his 1st start LW due to Crane’s broken collarbone, threw for 134 yards and 2 TD’s & bkup QB, P, K holder Flutie threw a TD pass on a fake FG (1st collegiate pass). For the season true Fr Harris leads the team with 798 rush yds (5.1) while WR Robinson has 37 rec (15.7) & Gunnell has 42 rec (10.4). Each team has struggled on offense (BC #71-76) but they do have solids D’s (VT #14-19). BC is #1 in the NCAA with 25 int. VT is 17-4 SU on the ACC road but just 1-4 TY on the ACC road (1-3 TY). The Hokies are 8-3 ATS as a conf road dog under Beamer. Coming off his worst performance, QB Taylor rushed for over 100 yds LW, his 4th career 100 yard game, tying Michael Vick for the 2nd most 100 yard games by a QB in VT history. The Hokies defeated in-state rival UVA 17-14 in a game that was not as close as the final score as VT had 24-12 FD & 392-249 yd edges. On the year, Taylor is avg 147 total ypg. RB Evans has rushed for 998 yds (4.4) and WR Coale has 32 rec (11.0). The Hokies should have the fan edge as VT fans travel well while Eagles fans do not. BC will try to avenge LY’s loss and earn its first-ever BCS berth but will have to do it behind a rFr QB making just his 2nd start and VT will try to repeat LY’s feat of avenging a regular season loss.

    BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP - † Oklahoma 51 Missouri 30 -

    Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. This will be the second straight Oklahoma vs Missouri B12 Championship game. OU took care of Mizzou at the Alamodome LY 38-17 (-3) outgaining them 375-317, but MO did have a 220-132 HT yd edge w/the score tied at 14. This marks the Tigers’ 2nd ever B12 Title game and the Sooners are making this an every year occurrence, playing in their 7th championship game (all after 2000) & have gone 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS (each as a fav). The Sooners have played in every B12 Title game at Arrowhead (3-1 SU & 2-1-1 ATS) and even though this will be the Tigers’ first time here in a championship game they finished up this yr at this venue LW vs rival Kansas. OU is outgaining its foes in the title gm by 103 ypg as their defense has been stout allowing just 280 ypg (16 ppg). This will be the 94th meeting between these two as OU holds a 64-24-5 advantage (Mizzou just one win since ‘84, in 1998). Unlike last year, MO avoided OU in the regular season. Both tms had 6 common opp’s TY (BU, KU, KSU, NU, OSU & UT) and Mizzou was 3-3 SU & 1-5 ATS outscoring them by just 4 ppg & outgaining them by just 24 ypg. OU was 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS (+19 ppg, +113 ypg). MO finished 9-3 (5-7 ATS) in the reg ssn & shared the B12 N crown w/NU but got here by virtue of their head-2-head win over the Huskers. QB Daniel is avg 323 ypg (75%) with a 34-13 ratio. WR Maclin has 88 rec (13.4) while TE Coffman has 79 (11.0). RB Washington has 963 yds (6.3). MO has allowed 23 sks (2.7%) & is avg 165 ypg (5.5) on the ground. They have been burned through the air allowing 277 ypg (64%) with a 24-13 ratio which ranks #77 in our pass eff D. OU finished 11-1 (10-2 ATS) & gets here due to their higher BCS ranking than 11-1 TT & UT. QB Bradford is avg 340 ypg (68%) with a 46-6 ratio. WR Iglesias has 60 rec (16.1). TE Gresham has 50 (16.1) and RB’s Murray & Brown have combined for 1,990 yds (5.7). OU has allowed just 11 sks (2.6%) with an OL that avg 6’5” 310 & has paved the way for 202 ypg (4.7) on the ground. The Sooners rank #11 in our pass eff D allowing 250 ypg (54%) with a 17-15 ratio. Both tms rank near the top in off (OU#1, MO#8), but OU has the better def (#16-39). MO has a ST edge (#49-113) & OU has given up a KR TD to 4 different tms TY. OU comes into this gm avg 53 ppg & has dropped 61+ on its L/4 opp’s while MO limps in after a loss to rival KU LW & has now gone 2-5 ATS down the stretch (0-1 as an AD while OU is 5-1 as an AF).

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:34pm
14. 0 likes

    NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

    (4) Angle Plays 28-10 74% L/4Y!

    (4) GREEN BAY

    (3) KANSAS CITY

    (3) ARIZONA

    (3) NEW ENGLAND

    PRO STAT PLAY: NEW ENGLAND

    SYSTEM SELECTION ( System Play 10-4 )

    Play the Over when a home team scored 20 or more points and lost by 20 or more points on the road last week.

    2001-2008: 12-1-1 92%

    THIS WEEK'S PLAY: Rams/Cardinals OVER

    KEY SELECTIONS

    4* ARIZONA over St Louis -

    ARZ comes into this game with 3 days extra rest & the defense will be highly motivated after being thumped by PHI LW. ARZ let PHI score TD’s on 3 of their 1st 4 drives & was down 24-7 at the half being outFD 19-7 & outgained 219-105. ARZ is 1-7 ATS as a fav of 7+ & they have not been a fav this big over the L32 years. ARZ is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home after a SU loss under Whisenhunt. Warner has passed for 305 ypg (73%) with an 11-2 ratio (111.0 QBR) at home TY. STL is 0-5 ATS in div play. The 2005 SF team is widely regarded as the worst team in the NFL since the 1999 expansion Browns finishing 4-12 with the #32 & #32 units. They were outFD 21-12 & outgained 391-224 (-9 TO’s) with a 27-15 avg score. The 2008 Rams are almost as bad being outFD 21-14, outgained 382-266 (-9 TO’s) with a 30-13 avg score TY. STL did get a nice rebound LW by staying close vs MIA with the return of RB Jackson (94, 4.5). It’s tough to be confident in Bulger who is only avg 190 ypg (57%) with a 3-5 ratio & weak 6.2 ypa on the road. While this is a huge line (DD fav’s 5-14 ATS TY) ARZ can win its 1st Division Title since 1975 here & will have a rowdy crowd here. FORECAST: ARIZONA 41 St Louis 17

    3* New England over SEATTLE - This game features two of the best minds in the NFL with Belichick vs Holmgren. NE has big statistical edges with the #2 & #12 units (-4 TO’s) the L4W vs SEA’s #29 & #32 units (-3 TO’s). NE is 15-5 ATS as an AF & 9-2-1 ATS away vs the NFC. SEA is 3-6 ATS as a HD. While SEA has seen its offensive production rise the L3W (196, 228, 322) under Hasselbeck they have dropped in points scored (20,17.9). The defense is really wearing down allowing an avg 430 ypg the L3W & the #31 pass defense with a 19-6 ratio gets a bad matchup vs Moss (58 rec, 13.5) & Welker (84 rec, 10.3). SEA will be the 2nd of 3 straight teams for NE that have 3 extra days rest & are catching NE off a physical game vs PIT. NE will be livid after losing at home to PIT as they were out muscled at the POA. They gave up 5 TO’s due to self inflicted mistakes & not overtly bad plays. SEA lacks the pass rush (#10) that PIT (#1), MIA (#8) & the Jets (#5) have as DE Kerney is on IR & half their sacks came vs SF. NE is 10-0 SU & ATS away after a SU loss since 2003 with a 402-298 yd edge & 32-17 avg score. LW’s results give great line value. With NE on the outside looking in & facing a lower level team the Patriots come up big here. FORECAST: New England 30 SEATTLE 14

    2* SAN FRANCISCO (+) over NY Jets - SF is finally home after 2 long road trips to DAL & BUF. The Jets have good statistical edges with the #11 & #19 units (-1 TO’s) vs SF’s #26 & #23 units (-13 TO’s) & both teams have elite special teams units. SF is 2-6 ATS as a HD while the Jets are 10-6-1 ATS as an AF. This is a flat spot for the Jets who are off 2 big games vs NE & TEN, a tough loss vs DEN & have BUF on deck. This is SF’s only HG in a 5 week span. SF is off a bit of a misleading win vs BUF as they KO’d QB Edwards putting an unprepared Losman up against a promising front 7. SF was outgained 350-195 but held off BUF in their red zone (0-4). HD’s that won SU as an AD LW but scored 14 or less are 18-3 ATS. The Jets had their win streak (5 SU wins & 4 straight covers) broken getting outgained 484-383 vs DEN. While others may jump on them to rebound off a loss we look for a tight game with NYJ being in their 3rd road game in 4 weeks & having faltered twice in trips to the West Coast. The Jets lost & failed to cover to both SD (now 4-8 SU) & OAK (now 3-10 SU) & have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. SF knows they are playing for next year’s spots but they continue to play with enthusiasm under Singletary & are worth a play as the Ugly Dog here (23-12 66%). FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 23 (+) NY Jets 24

    2* TENNESSEE over Cleveland - The Browns needed a Titans loss to IND in their season finale to back into the playoffs but the Colts rolled over & TEN slid into the #6 spot. CLE is 11-5-1 ATS as a non-div AD & 24-10 ATS under Crennel after a SU loss. TEN is 2-7 ATS as a non-div HF. TEN has the #13 & #2 units (+3 TO’s) vs CLE #23 & #30 units (+2 TO’s) the L4W. CLE’s had a very solid gameplan LW vs IND relying on an under used RB Lewis (77 yds 3.2 LW) to control the clock & keep the defense out of trouble. CLE held Manning to 125 yds (71%) with an 0-2 ratio but a fumble on a sack of Anderson that was returned 37 yds which was the difference. CLE lost TE Winslow (ankle) & QB Anderson (left MCL) & will likely be forced to start #3 QB Ken Dorsey who has a 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS record with SF in limited starting duty avg 160 ypg (54%) with an 8-11 ratio. Dorsey hasn’t taken a reg season snap in 3 years & faces a TEN’s pass rush that is 5th in sacks by (34) & the #3 pass defense has an 8-17 ratio. TEN’s #5 rush attack (139 ypg 4.2) should have another solid effort vs a CLE defense that is giving up 141 yds rushing (4.4) TY. The Titans dominated every phase of the game LW vs DET & should make short work of a depleted CLE team that will be spent after an impressive defensive effort at home. FORECAST: TENNESSEE 27 Cleveland 3

    OTHER GAMES

    Oakland at SAN DIEGO - Thursday. SD beat OAK 28-18 as a 7.5 pt AF in for their only road win so far in 2008. OAK had a 15-0 lead at the half but SD scored 18 unanswered points to take the lead. OAK hit a 32 yd FG to tie with 2:47 left but SD hit a 47 yd FG & Tomlinson’s 41 yd TD run (longest run TY) sealed the cover with 1:04 left. SD has to deal with the fact they are basically out of the playoffs on Dec 1st. OAK dropped their game to KC LW but they have already gone on the road & knocked off division rivals KC & DEN. While OAK is usually a horrible Dec team they actually have something to play for in adding to SD’s pain. Turner however needs a big win to start earning his players faith for the 2009 season. Call for the Thursday Night Marquee Play after 3:00 ET for just $9 on the Northcoast Debit Card or http://www.ncsports.com [ncsports.com]">www.ncsports.com.

    INDIANAPOLIS 31 Cincinnati 13 - This is the 3rd meeting in 4Y with IND winning both SU & ATS. IND is 8-4 ATS as a DD fav. CIN is 8-2 as a DD dog. IND comes in having won 5 straight (2-3 ATS) with all 5 wins coming by 6 or less. While IND barely escaped with the win vs CLE LW they were facing a motivated team playing to save their HC’s job & were hindered by poor weather. IND was also without Ctr Saturday & Manning noted that not having him at the start of they year was worse than his 2 knee surgeries entering the season. CIN doesn’t have anyone on their depleted DL that is in the same class as NT Rogers & IND should fare much better here. Manning was held to a season low 125 yds passing (71%) with an 0-2 ratio & he now faces CIN’s #21 pass defense with an 18-8 ratio. CIN was without starting LT Jones & LG Whitworth (IR) LW & an OL that has given up 43 sacks TY (30th) now faces a Colts DL that only has 19 sacks (26th) but has put enough pressure on opposing QB’s to set up a 4-11 ratio for the #7 pass defense. CIN’s #24 defense only has 13 sacks TY (31st) & are without their top 3 DE’s due to injury. CIN could only muster 6 FD’s (1st time since 1992) & 155 yds vs a brutal BAL defense & punted 11 times with a FG, int & SOD on their other 3 drives. With DD fav’s being 5-14 ATS TY this is a dangerous play but CIN is without 10 starters from its projected opening day roster & have nothing to play for here.

    CHICAGO 20 Jacksonville 14 - Both are off prime-time division matchups with JAX now on their 2nd straight road game while CHI returns home off a 3 game road trip. No matter the results for the Bears LW they still find themselves in the division race while the Jaguars were at 7 losses going into MNF & Del Rio admitted they are looking ahead to 2009. JAX is now 3-2 SU & ATS on the road & in the 3 wins they’ve rushed for 183 ypg (4.8 ypc) avg 28 ppg. In their 2 road losses they’ve avg’d 51 ypg (2.7) rushing & only 15 ppg. The matchup doesn’t favor JAX here as CHI is the #5 rush defense allowing just 3.3 ypc TY while holding to teams to 78 ypg (3.1) at home. JAX has covered just 2 of their L8 games both ATS wins were vs the #31 defense of DET & the #28 defense of DEN. CHI has been no bargain at home going 2-9 ATS as a HF but in the 4 games with Orton they’ve avgd 31 ppg & 327 ypg with wins vs PHI, MIN & DET & the only loss being to TB. They have been solid playing off a SU loss going 13-5 ATS (may apply) while also playing off a previous HL to TEN in which QB Orton missed with inj. CHI does have a short week on deck but the situation, weather & motivation all favor the Bears vs a JAX team travelling on a short week to a cold weather site. CHI stays alive for a pair off upcoming primetime games vs other potential NFC playoff teams.

    GREEN BAY 31 Houston 17 - This is a poor situation for HOU who has to travel to a cold weather site after their first ever MNF game & has a home game vs TEN on deck. GB is off 2 big losses that have seen their playoff hopes dim. GB is 8-4-1 ATS as a HF. HOU is 3-9 ATS on the road. While HOU has only been outgained by an avg of 3 yds on the road TY (3-3 ATS) their only SU win as been vs the disappointing Browns. GB is 3-3 SU & ATS at home not because of Rodgers (249 ypg 69% 10-3 at home) but due to a

    defense allowing 147 ypg rushing (5.0) at home. GB started slow vs CAR LW & had 16-7 FD & 285-128 yd edges in the 2H. 54 of CAR’s yards coming on a busted coverage of Steve Smith after he had been held to 3 rec (17.0) in the game. GB gets a great matchup with Jennings (64 rec, 16.5) & Driver (54 rec. 12.9) vs HOU #15 pass defense with a 17-9 ratio. GB does have some injury concerns at the Safety spot & RB Grant (wrist) left LW’s game but RB Jackson had 80 yds (7.3) vs CAR’s #11 def LW. This is a solid situational matchup & while HOU WR Johnson (81 rec, 13.2) will get his yards GB will get the win.

    Minnesota 34 DETROIT 13 - The schedule favors the Lions who have 3 extra days rest vs a MIN team off a SNF game vs CHI. However, DET is off its worst Thanksgiving loss in history as TEN basically had a 3-1 edge in FD’s (19-6) & yards (456-154) in the game. DET went 0-11 on 3rd Dns & allowed two 100 yd rushers vs TB & TEN. After taking a 17-0 lead vs TB the Lions were outscored 73-6 over the next 4+ Qtrs. The Lions have been outgained 401-231 (-5 TO’s) at home TY with a 38-16 avg score. DET played a close game vs MIN earlier TY losing by a 12-10 margin as a 13.5 pt AD. MIN had 18-8 FD & 392-212 yd edges but on 3 drives inside the DET 20 had a fumble, missed FG & made the game winning FG on a drive helped out by a quest Def pass interference penalty on DET. MIN has the #20 & #9 units (-2 TO’s) vs DET’s #30 & #31 units (-9 TO’s) with DET having the spec teams edge. MIN’s biggest advantage is centered around their #6 rush attack avg 138 ypg rushing (4.4) vs DET’s #32 rush defense allowing 177 ypg (5.1). MIN’s DT Williams tandem should finally get the results of their Starcaps suspension this week. The key here will be RB Peterson vs a lowly DET defense that can’t bring pressure vs Frerotte.

    NY GIANTS 17 Philadelphia 9 - The Giants beat PHI 36-31 in a misleading final as a 3 pt AD in the 1st meeting on SNF moving to 3-0 SU & ATS vs their div rival. The Giants had 26-17 FD & 401-300 yd edges but turned the ball over twice which gave PHI TD drives of 9 & 44 yds. The Giants wore out PHI’s defense with 45 rushes (4.9) to earn an 18:50 TOP edge. NFC East division HF’s are 4-11 ATS. The Giants are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home TY with a 371-242 yd edge & 30-13 avg score. However they find themselves in a murky situation with a full 7 days to deal with the Plaxico/Pierce situation & face a PHI team with 3 extra days rest that finally played up to their potential LW vs ARZ. PHI had 32-13 FD & 437-260 yd edges converting an impressive 10 of 15 3rd Dns but that was vs a tired West Coast team travelling on a short week. Westbrook has avg’d 100 combined yds (5. vs NYG who are 7-1 ATS as an AD. However, the Giants have won & covered 6 straight vs teams with a winning record TY (347-283 yd edge +9 TO’s 30-18 avg score) which is the 2nd longest streak in NFL history. The Giants will hunker down & focus on the task at hand but we need to see if MLB Pierce & RB Ward will be available & call this at the line here.

    NEW ORLEANS 31 Atlanta 21 - The Falcons beat the Saints at their own game just 4 Wks ago with a 34-20 win as a 1.5 pt HF. Ryan had 248 yds passing (70%) with a 2-0 ratio. ATL had a 27-6 lead early 4Q before Brees turned it on & passed for 292 of his 422 yds with a 2-2 ratio. ATL is 0-5 SU & ATS as a div dog while NO is 4-9 ATS at home in div play. NO has a Thur Night road game vs CHI on deck but have a good situation here catching a young ATL team off a long road game vs SD. Brees has never had a 4Q comeback win in the NFL as NO lost to TB 23-20 LW. Brees was int’d on NO’s final 2 drives with the 1st setting up TB’s game winning FG. NO has been magical at home TY going 4-1 SU & ATS with a 427-301 yd edge & 33-20 avg score. ATL is off a big road win vs SD (348-201 yd edge) despite 3 TO’s but this isn’t Schottenheimer’s resilient Chargers team. LW’s results give good value here & we’ll side with the home team looking up in the standings.

    Miami 20 Buffalo 17 - Toronto - This game will be played on a worn FieldTurf surface with the dome closed. Jauron had the dome closed in the preseason game vs PIT to familiarize the team with the lighting. The turf is very old & the Bills staff & players weren’t happy with the seams on the field that looked “stitched together.” MIA beat BUF 25-16 as a 1 pt HD in the 1st meeting. BUF was down by 1 at the end of the 3Q but their L4 drives were int, fumble, safety & fumble which MIA turned into 2 FG’s. BUF statistically outplayed SF LW with 18-12 FD & 350-195 yd edges but QB Edwards (groin) was KO’d of the game & his status here is unknown. BUF had two 15 play drives (180 yds) end in 0 points. The Bills had 4 drives total inside the SF 22 but came away with 2 missed FGs, a FG & were SOD. MIA squeaked by STL 16-12 but only had a 49 yd edge despite 3 int by Bulger. MIA was adapting to the loss of #1 WR Camarillo (55 rec, 11.1) & were caught by surprise a bit by the injection STL RB Jackson. Usually the injury system is to play on the team that sustained a loss to a key player (Edwards) but he’s been KO’d earlier TY (vs ARZ) & Losman failed to impress the team LW (93 yds 65% 0-0) at home. While BUF will have a decided crowd edge here MIA is better when no one counts on them.

    DENVER 28 Kansas City 27 - KC got their first win of the season & 1st in 11 months with a 33-19 win as a 9 pt HD in the 1st meeting. RB Johnson had his best game of the year with 198 yds rushing (7.1) vs DEN’s #28 defense. DEN had 4 drives inside the KC 16 but were held to 1 TD, 1 missed FG & 2 FG’s both coming in the 4Q. DEN is 2-6 ATS in div play & 3-15 ATS as a HF. KC is 5-2 ATS away in div play. Cutler has been a bit of a disappointment avg just 234 ypg (51%) with a 4-5 ratio leading to a 0-3 SU & ATS record. He gets a KC team with just 6 sacks TY & the NFL record low is 13 set by the Colts back in 1981. KC’s #25 pass defense has a 7-4 ratio the L6W. Thigpen has done a solid job in the Nevada style Pistol scheme with 225 ypg (61%) with an 11-4 ratio the L6W. The Chiefs avenged their earlier season loss to OAK LW by holding off the Raiders with a 20-13 win. KC converted 2 TO’s into 10 pts & wore down the OAK defense with a 10:22 TOP edge. They now get a DEN team that pulled a nice road upset over a playoff contender with a 484-383 yd edge. #2 CB Bly & DE Ekuban (4 sacks) left LW’s game & their status is unknown. DEN is notorious for playing down to the level of their competition & while they should get the win in a higher scoring game we like the points here.

    Dallas 17 PITTSBURGH 13 - This is a great matchup with one of the best teams in the NFC vs one of the best in the AFC. PIT has the #10 & #1 units (+3 TO’s) the L4W vs DAL #14 & #7 units (+0 TO’s) & both teams have bottom tier special teams units. PIT is 7-3 ATS hosting an NFC team while DAL is 6-3 vs the AFC. PIT laid another layer of sod over Heinz Field after the CIN game to improve the field conditions but they will have 4 high school championship games played on it & conditions similar to LY’s MIA game on SNF could arise. While DAL has 3 days extra rest they are 2-7 ATS away after a Thursday game. RB Barber (toe) & DE Ware (knee) are both expected to return here. ARZ’s defense has a lot of the same tendencies that PIT’s does & Romo did well with 321 yds (63%) with a 3-0 ratio. PIT has faced 4 top 10 offenses TY going 2-2 SU & ATS thumping HOU, losing to PHI giving up 9 sacks, hanging with NYG until they lost their LS & beating NE on the road LW getting 5 TO’s & converting them into 20 pts. PIT will be feeling very confident after beating NE LW but DAL coaching staff knows they have to fight tooth & claw for a Wild Card spot. We like the matchup of TO & WR Williams vs a thin PIT secondary & side with the dog here.

    Washington at BALTIMORE - This is a great geographical rivalry that rarely gets to face off due to the schedule rotation. Both feature stout running games & BAL’s D hasn’t allowed a 100 yd rusher in 30 games but they did get blown up by NYG for 207 yds (6.3). WAS has the quick WR’s to take advantage of BAL’s lack of depth in the secondary but will Campbell (213 ypg 64% 11-4) have the time to take advantage of it? Call for the Sun Night Marquee Play after 11:00 ET for just $9 on the Northcoast Debit Card or http://www.ncsports.com [ncsports.com]">www.ncsports.com.

    Tampa Bay at CAROLINA - TB thumped CAR 27-3 at home in the 1st meeting even with CAR coming in loads of confidence after a 34-0 shutout win the previous week. TB returned a blocked punt for a TD to take an early lead then shut down CAR’s power run game with a 142 (3. to 40 (2.0) rush edge while converting 6 of 13 on 3rd Dns. Delhomme had 3 int with 1 setting up a 52 yd TD drive. Garcia has passed for 227 ypg (68%) 6-1 the L7W since retaking the reigns here but it’s tough to sweep a div foe

    Our Over/Under Section is in its 21st season. Each week we list the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night. An * denotes an estimated line. The 3H Totals are 22-17. Here are this week's plays:

    3★ Browns/Titans UNDER 37

    3★ Eagles/Giants UNDER 44'

    3★ Rams/Cardinals OVER 49

    2★ Vikings/Lions OVER 41*

    2★ Cowboys/Steelers UNDER 41'

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:37pm
15. 0 likes

    THE GOLDSHEET

    COLLEGE ANALYSIS

    KEY RELEASES

    ARIZONA by 21 over Arizona State

    HAWAII by 3 over Cincinnati

    *ARIZONA 34 - Arizona State 13—Not convinced that ASU’s recent

    uptick at the expense of Pac-10 court jesters U-Dub, Wazzu, & UCLA any sort

    of “buy” signal for Sun Devils. Especially since QB Carpenter & HC Dennis

    Erickson’s “O” labored for much of game vs. Cougs and barely gained 100

    yards of total offense in last week’s misleading win over the Bruins when ASU

    “D” scored all Sun Devil TDs. Now, ASU facing live ammunition for first time in

    over a month in form of o.c. Sonny Dykes’ potent Arizona spread and sr. QB

    Tuitama, looking to close home career with a bang. And though Sun Devils

    need a win to get bowl-eligible, there’s plenty at stake for postseason-bound

    Wildcats, too, especially for HC Mike Stoops, who might need a victory (which

    would get Cats to 7-5) to secure his future employment in Tucson. CABLE

    TV—ESPN

    (07-ARIZ. ST. 20-Ariz. 17...S.18-17 S.40/97 U.19/44 U.28/52/2/272 S.20/37/0/247 S.1 U.1)

    (07-ASU -7 20-17 06-Asu +3 28-14 05-ASU -9' 23-20...SR: Arizona 44-36-1)

    *HAWAII 34 - Cincinnati 31—On fundamentals alone, would

    probably be compelled to back bigger, faster Cincinnati squad that’s riding 5-

    game win streak. But this might be the spot to play “psychology” angle—i.e.,

    Bearcats wouldn’t be first team to treat a late-season sojourn to the islands as

    a vacation instead of a business trip. And if Cincy, which has already secured

    the Big East title and an Orange Bowl bid, isn’t fully focused, blossoming Hawaii

    QB Greg Alexander (867 YP & 7 TDP in last 3 games) capable of leading

    Warriors to small upset, especially with Bearcats’ star sr. CB Mike Mickens

    sidelined by knee injury. CABLE TV—ESPN2 (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

    THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

    *RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 21—Schedule-maker the only one able to cool

    off resurgent Rutgers recently, as streaking Scarlet Knights had won 5 straight

    (and covered 7 in a row) prior to last week’s open date. Still, even with Louisville

    fighting for its post-season life, expect host to pick up where it left off. Final

    home game for zoned-in senior QB Mike Teel (68% for 1290 yards & 13 TDP in

    last 4 games!), while NFL-caliber 6-4 jr. WR Kenny Britt, who’s snagged 57

    passes for 929 yards since serving one-game suspension at end of September,

    is a nightmare matchup for depleted Cardinal secondary. And, with Rutgers

    defense unleashing myriad blitzes on limping Louisville sr. QB Hunter Cantwell,

    no surprise if fading visitor continues to self-destruct (Cards have coughed up

    14 turnovers while dropping their last 4 games both straight-up & vs. spread).

    CABLE TV—ESPN

    (07-LVL. 41-Rutgers 38...R.25-21 L.45/240 R.37/153 R.21/32/0/265 L.12/22/0/237 L.1 R.0)

    (07-LVL. -2' 41-38 06-RUT. +6' 28-25 05-LVL. -21' 56-5...SR: Rutgers 5-2)

    FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5

    MAC CHAMPIONSHIP

    (At Ford Field - Detroit, Michigan)

    *Ball State 40 - Buffalo 21—All due respect to Buffalo’s best team in 50

    years, but Ball State has more edges in this game. It was a bad sign for the Bull

    defense to give up 167 YR to QB Edelman and 150 to Flash RB Jarvis in last

    week’s home loss to Kent. And, in its previous game at Bowling Green, UB fell

    behind 21-0. Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis (1570 YR, 20 TDs in ‘08; 10 carries for

    99 YR vs. Buffalo in his only game vs. the Bulls in ‘06) and QB Nate Davis (6667

    YP, 55 TDP, just 12 ints. last 2 seasons; 73%, 6 TDs, just 1 int. in 2 career

    games vs. Buffalo) are capable of putting up monster numbers Respect Buffalo’s “triplets” of RB James Starks (123 ypg rushing), WR

    Naaman Roosevelt (86 recs., 1196 yds.) and QB Drew Willy (64%, 2885 YP, 22

    TDP, just 5 ints.), but Cardinals are at least an equal offensively, and superior

    on defense & special teams. Buffalo allows 12 more ppg than Ball State. The

    Bulls STs are sadly lacking (108th in net punting, 116 in kickoff returns), while

    Ball State is 9th in punt returns. Card QB Davis, 6th in the country in pass

    efficiency, will have all the time he wants, as only 2 teams have collected fewer

    sacks than the Bulls, while Ball State ranks 5th in fewest sacks allowed.

    Also consider the fact that Ball State has never lost to Buffalo, with impressive

    covers in 2 most recent meetings. Realize Bulls have covered 8 straight as a dog,

    but Brady Hoke’s Cards are 15-5-1 last 21 as a favorite. CABLE TV—ESPN2

    (07-BSU 49-Buf. 14...Bs.28-11 Bs.48/274 Bf.27/83 Bs.21/29/0/233 Bf.14/19/1/136 Bs.0 Bf.1)

    (07-BALL ST. -13' 49-14 06-Ball St. -4 55-25...SR: Ball State 6-0)

    SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6

    Navy 26 - Army 10—This year’s version of Army a little more competent

    than the last six Black Knight editions that have been spanked by Navy. But the

    novelty element that worked in West Point’s favor after its return to option

    football earlier in campaign certainly won’t catch the Midshipmen off guard as

    it did several of Army’s midseason foes, and Navy’s suspect 2ndary (ranks 101st

    vs. pass) unlikely to get exposed by QB Bowden and Stan Brock’s land-locked

    offense. So unless the presence of George W. Bush (attending rivalry for first

    time since ‘04) summons extra-special effort from Black Knights, shade recent

    series trends, especially with Navy “D” off first shutout in 4 years and electric

    soph QB Dobbs picking up nuances of Mid option quite seamlessly. (at

    Philadelphia, Pa.) TV—CBS

    (07-Navy 38-Army 3...N.19-15 N.61/287 A.40/100 A.12/23/0/117 N.2/5/0/7 N.0 A.2)

    (07-Navy -14 38-3 at Balt. 06-Navy -19' 26-14 at Phi. 05-Navy -6 42-23 at Phi...SR: Navy 52-49-7)

    CONNECTICUT 26 - Pittsburgh 19—These teams are very similar, starting

    with their respective “ground-centric” offenses that each feature one of the most

    productive RBs in the country (but with each also limited by a QB that rarely

    does substantial damage in air). Can’t expect sudden explosion from either

    signal-caller, as Husky sr. Tyler Lorenzen & Panther jr. Bill Stull have combined

    for just 9 TDP (vs. 14 ints.) this season. And no surprise if marqueé battle

    between UConn jr. RB Donald Brown (nation-leading 148 ypg rushing) & Pitt

    counterpart soph LeSean McCoy (1308 YR & 20 TDs) turns out to be a draw. So

    it might be best to shade significant home-field advantage, which has seen host

    Huskies cover 16 of their last 22 at Hartford. TV—ESPN2

    (07-Conn. 34-PITT 14...P.19-17 C.46/115 P.23/72 P.31/51/4/277 C.12/25/0/174 C.1 P.2)

    (07-Conn. +8' 34-14 06-CONN. +8 46-45 (OT) 05-PITT -12 24-0...SR: Connecticut 3-1)

    *South Florida 24 - WEST VIRGINIA 23—Sure, record-setting

    Mountaineer sr. QB Pat White would love to go out with a flourish in front of rabid

    Morgantown faithful. But there’s a reason why revenge-minded West Virginia

    has dropped last 2 meetings against South Florida—the Bulls’ defense has had

    the speed necessary to contain White & the Mountaineers’ quick-striking

    ground attack. And such appears to be the case again, as the swarming USF

    stop unit is permitting only a paltry 94 ypg rushing this season. Even though Bull

    jr. QB Matt Grothe (9 ints. in last 4 games) has been forcing too many throws

    lately, he’s more likely to make key plays in the air than White, who’s passed for

    200+ yards in a game only twice in last two campaigns. TV—ESPN2

    (07-S. FLA. 21-W. Va. 13...W.21-13 W.48/188 S.38/139 W.23/38/3/249 S.11/20/2/135 S.2 W.3)

    (07-USF +7 21-13 06-Usf +21 24-19 05-Wva -9 28-13...SR: South Florida 2-1)

    CALIFORNIA 48 - Washington 10—No truth to rumors that one of Barack

    Obama’s first acts as president will be Federal bailout assistance to U-Dub

    football program. Not that Huskies couldn’t use all the help they can get,

    especially considering how team has shown no interest in summoning a special

    effort for lame-duck HC Ty Willingham since his imminent departure was

    confirmed over a month ago (winless U-Dub also on nation’s worst 9-game

    spread losing streak). Meanwhile, upbeat Cal is jockeying for improved bowl

    position, and Jeff Tedford not about to let his Bears forget about LY’s humbling 14-

    point loss in Seattle. Cal a noteworthy 6-0 SU and vs. line in “Berserk-eley” in ‘08.

    (07-WASH. 37-Cal. 23...W.20-16 W.56/334 C.27/147 C.20/28/1/236 W.7/19/0/108 W.0 C.2)

    (07-WASH. +7 37-23 06-CAL. -23 31-24 (OT) 05-Cal. -9 56-17...SR: Washington 46-37-4)

    Southern Cal 31 - UCLA 6—We wonder if Rick Neuheisel will seek the

    services of Henry Kissinger to mend any understandable broken fences

    between UCLA’s “O” and “D” after Bruins gift-wrapped a hard-to-fathom, NCAA

    record-tying 4 TDs to Arizona State’s defense in last week’s 34-9 loss at Tempe.

    And indeed, one of the few questions in of this year’s crosstown rivalry is

    whether USC’s stop unit will outscore the mistake-prone UCLA offense on its

    own. But with pointspread likely ballooning into stratosphere, it’s worth

    remembering how Bruin d.c. Walker’s schemes have has been able to “junk up”

    the SC offensive machinery the past two meetings, games which UCLA

    covered (including a memorable 13-9 upset in ‘06). And despite dominating

    conference foes, note that Pete Carroll’s Trojan juggernaut is just 5-11 vs. line

    last 16 on Pac-10 road. If sage Bruin (and ex-SC) o.c. Norm Chow can find a

    way to limit QB Craft’s mistakes, Bruin “D” competent enough to prevent

    complete embarrassment. TV—ABC

    (07-S. CAL 24-Ucla 7...S.26-10 S.49/231 U.25/12 S.21/36/1/206 U.13/29/1/156 S.1 U.3)

    (07-USC -19' 24-7 06-UCLA +12' 13-9 05-USC -21 66-19...SR: Southern Cal 42-28-7)

    ADDED GAMES

    *TROY 34 - Arkansas State 18—It’s not Florida-Alabama, but there are

    postseason implications nonetheless in this Sun Belt showdown, with winner to

    get loop’s automatic bid to New Orleans Bowl. Measured vote, then, for rested

    Troy bunch that unleashed heretofore underutilized infantry (whopping 391 YR,

    including career-high 234 YR by RB D. Harris!) in recent 48-3 smashing of ULLafayette.

    That sort of complement will come in handy for Trojans’ Richmond

    transfer QB Levi Brown, who’s been efficient and mostly error-free (11 TDP, just

    3 picks) since assuming starting role at midseason. Red Wolves not providing

    much value lately (just 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board TY).

    (07-Troy 27-ARK. ST. 0...T.17-11 T.43/200 A.34/116 T.16/26/1/168 A.12/28/3/121 T.3 A.1)

    (07-Troy -5 27-0 06-Asu +8 33-26 05-ASU -3' 9-3...SR: Arkansas State 6-3)

    *FLORIDA INTL. 24 - Western Kentucky 22—True, WKU hasn’t won a

    game since John McCain was leading Barack Obama in the polls (Sept. 20), but

    Hilltoppers hardly being outclassed by future Sun Belt foes, staying within

    earshot vs. some of loop’s most competent sides (Troy, FAU, & MTSU) after

    competitive effort vs. undefeated Ball State in early October. And since FIU

    might find it difficult to summon extra energy after blowing late lead in gutwrenching

    57-50 OT loss vs. rival FAU last week, no surprise if WKU makes it

    interesting again. (05-FIU (NL) 38-35...SR: EVEN 1-1)

    CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

    (H.A. Chapman Stadium - Tulsa, Oklahoma)

    TULSA 40 - East Carolina 35—While the Pirates sewed up C-USA’s

    weaker East Division a few weeks ago, Tulsa needed a narrow win at Marshall

    last Saturday (combined with Rice’s victory over front-running Houston) to earn

    the West’s spot in the conference title game for third time in last 4 years.

    As usual, the case for the Golden Hurricane pretty much begins and ends

    with its prolific attack (No. 1 in total offense, No. 2 in scoring offense), as clever

    coordinator Gus Malzahn’s creative scheme has racked up 78 TDs & nearly

    7000 yards this season. It would not be a major surprise if Tulsa’s wellbalanced

    offense eventually overwhelms an East Carolina defense that has

    been thinned by key injuries.

    However, taking points with the Pirates appears to be higher-percentage

    play. While ECU’s overall performance vs. the spread has taken a downturn

    this season, HC Skip Holtz is still 19-7 as an underdog since taking the helm at

    Greenville in ’05. And, since savvy senior QB Patrick Pinkney has enough

    weapons to do substantial damage to the very vulnerable Hurricane defense

    (44th in nation), pesky Pirates likely to take this one the distance.

    CABLE TV—ESPN

    (06-Tulsa -2' 31-10 05-TULSA -9' 45-13...SR: Tulsa 5-2)

    ACC CHAMPIONSHIP

    (Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, Florida)

    Virginia Tech 19 - Boston College 13—This is fourth clash between Tech

    & BC in last two campaigns, with Eagles capturing both regular-season

    meetings, but Hokies prevailing in last year’s conference title game.

    With familiarity factor at work (in addition to two bad-ass defenses), favor

    “under” more than either side. Neither of these offenses has mustered more

    than 28 points in any of its last 7 games, and BC is down to talented but raw RS

    frosh Dominique Davis at QB. However, rock-ribbed Eagle defense (only 87

    ypg rushing) matches up very well against bread-and-butter Hokie ground

    game, and ball-hawking BC (33 takeaways—2nd most in nation) will be ready

    to pounce on any mistakes from still-learning Tech soph QB Tyrod Taylor.

    Still, with both teams likely playing it close to the vest on offense,

    placekicking could end up being a decisive factor, and Hokie sr. Dustin Keys (20

    of 25 FGs) has a lot more range than Eagles’ sr. counterpart Steve Aponavicius,

    who’s hit just 7 of his 13 attempts from 30 or more yards. TV—ABC

    (08-BOS. COL. 28-Va. Tech 23...B.22-14 V.38/150 B.37/82 B.16/32/3/218 V.12/27/1/90 B.2 V.0)

    (07-Bos. Col. 14-VA. TECH 10...B.19-15 V.41/116 B.18/32 B.25/53/2/285 V.15/25/0/149 B.0 V.2)

    (07-Va. Tech 30-BOS. COL. 16...B.24-22 V.36/98 B.25/84 B.33/52/2/305 V.21/33/1/202 V.1 B.0)

    (08-BC -3 28-23; 07-Bc +3 14-10, Tech -4' 30-16 06-BC +2' 22-3 05-TECH -13' 30-10...SR:Tech 9-7)

    SEC CHAMPIONSHIP

    (Georgia Dome - Atlanta, Georgia)

    Florida 35 - Alabama 17—Granted, we haven’t been presented with many

    “slugger vs. boxer” analogies in Florida games this season. That’s because the

    Gators haven’t had to deal with the sort of physical, pounding “O” in combo with

    a righteous ”D” as presented by Nick Saban’s unbeaten Alabama.

    By the same token, however, the Crimson Tide has been mostly feasting

    upon transitional offenses and shaky opposing QBs in SEC West...hardly the

    case presented by roaring Florida. Indeed, Gators’ recent demolition run has

    included humiliations of competent defenses such as Kentucky, Georgia, and

    South Carolina. And no team outside of the NFL attacks with as much speed

    as does Urban Meyer’s deep and versatile spread, which hardly figures to skip

    a beat even if homerun threat Percy Harvin is limited or otherwise compromised

    by high ankle sprain. That’s because other weapons Chris Rainey (8.0 ypc!) &

    Jeff Demps (9.6 ypc...yikes!) equally adept at creating fireworks, while

    Heisman QB Tim Tebow (25 TDP, just 2 picks in ‘08!) has been nearly flawless

    since Florida’s lone slip on banana peel in late September vs. Ole Miss.

    Not as convinced that Bama QB Wilson will be able to match scoring shots,

    especially since voracious Gator “D” likely to wreck Tide’s offensive balance by

    ganging up on RBs Coffee & Ingram. And don’t mind laying reasonable number

    with Florida, since Gators are a near-spotless 10-1 vs. the line despite imposing

    imposts each week. TV—CBS

    (06-FLORIDA -15 28-13 05-ALABAMA +3' 31-3...SR: Alabama 20-13)

    BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP

    (Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, Missouri)

    *Oklahoma 52 - Missouri 26—Missouri does have the edge of having

    played Kansas last week on a sloppy, re-sodded field at Arrowhead, which is

    likely to diminish some of the Sooners’ speed advantage. But Oklahoma is on

    such a high-octane roll (11-1 SU, 9-2 vs. the number, 10-1 “over,” four straight

    60-point games) that the pointspread must be very large before we could back

    the 9-3 Tigers. As competent and well-coached as it is, 9-3 Mizzou stands 91st

    in total defense and gave up 41 ppg in its three losses to Oklahoma State,

    Texas & Kansas—all spread-offense teams with excellent QBs.

    Such are the Sooners, with Sam Bradford (left hand will require surgery after

    this game) hitting 68.2% for 4080 yds. with 46 TDs vs. only six interceptions.

    OU beat MU 38-17 in the Big XII title clash LY indoors at San Antonio, pulling

    away after a 14-14 first half. Perhaps only the weather and the field can keep the

    Sooners from moving out earlier TY. OU owned a 166-98 rush edge in LY’s title

    clash, and the Sooners’ big, veteran OL and RBs DeMarco Murray & Chris Brown

    (a combined 1990 YR) figure to establish that advantage earlier this time around.

    Although Tiger sr. QB Chase Daniel (75.1%, 34 TDs, 13 ints.) is relentless,

    and WR/KR Jeremy Maclin a constant threat (88 recs.; 14 combined TDs),

    Mizzou’s zone-blitz defense—still not among the speediest—will be repeatedly

    and severely challenged by Oklahoma’s big-play offense (53.3 ppg to lead the

    country), which has lost only 9 TOs all season, fewest in the nation. Both teams

    possess excellent TEs (MU’s Chase Coffman 79 recs., 9 TDs; OU’s Jermaine

    Gresham 50 recs., 12 TDs), but Gresham strikes for big plays, while Coffman

    is overcoming a recent foot injury. TV—ABC

    (07-OKLA. 41-Mo. 31...M.24-21 O.33/118 M.30/57 M.38/49/3/361 O.24/34/0/266 O.2 M.1)

    (07-Okla. 38-MO. 17...M.23-19 O.40/166 M.32/98 M.23/39/1/219 O.18/26/0/209 O.0 M.0)

    (07-OK. -12 41-31, Ok. -3 38-17 (at S.A.) 06-Ok. +1' 26-10...SR: Okla. 65-23-5)

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:37pm
16. 0 likes

    THE GOLDSHEET

    MINNESOTA by 24 over Detroit

    CAROLINA by 16 over Tampa Bay (Monday night)

    OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Francisco game

    Minnesota 37 - DETROIT 13—Lions’ last decent chance to notch a win

    TY? Games at Indy, vs. N.O., and at G.B. follow. Too bad the Vikes are 12-1

    SU the last 13 meetings. Maybe the commissioner will help by suspending

    Minny’s “Williams Brothers” DTs and DE Jared Allen (11 sacks). But even that

    might not be enough for Detroit, which is 0-6 vs. the spread at home TY and

    must deal with Adrian Peterson (1131 YR) after giving up nearly 300 YR to the

    Titans on Thanksgiving. Detroit “over” last five due to its overwhelmed defense

    (only two ints. TY!).

    (08-MINN. 12-Det. 10...M.18-8 M.31/135 D.24/100 M.18/33/1/257 D.12/21/0/112 M.2 D.1)

    (07-DET. 20-Minn. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)

    (07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)

    (08-MINN. -13 12-10; 07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINN. -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 62-30-2)

    OVER THE TOTAL SAN FRANCISCO 28 - N.Y. Jets 26—Niners now

    a respectable 2-3 SU & 3-2 vs. the spread under Mike Singletary, and the Jets’

    defense was exposed a bit last week by the Broncs. That N.Y. unit can play

    better, but Brett Favre not helping matters with his 14 interceptions. S.F.’s

    secondary among the more experienced in the league. Will take note, however,

    that 49ers are “over” 4 of the 5 games under Singletary; Jets “over” last six TY!

    (04-NY JETS -10 22-14...SR: San Francisco 8-2)

    *CAROLINA 26 - Tampa Bay 10—Must expect home-loving Carolina

    (6-1-2 vs. spread last 9 in Charlotte) to run the ball much better in rematch after

    being out-rushed 189-99 in first meeting in T.B. Oct. 12. RBs DeAngelo

    Williams (955 YR) & Jonathan Stewart (586) should own the day on the ground

    in this battle for NFC South supremacy, and Steve Smith is the top WR on the

    field. DE Julius Peppers (11 sacks) is back to being a primetime intimidator,

    and the Bucs’ wideouts are not too scary vs. Panthers’ experienced press

    coverage. CABLE TV—ESPN

    THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4

    *SAN DIEGO 24 - Oakland 17—S.D. has dominated the series recently,

    winning & covering the last 3, and covering 10 of the last 11. Can the Chargers

    extend that domination in a disappointing season in which they seem bent on

    playing just about everyone to the wire? Note that 3 of their 4 wins, however,

    have been decided by double figures. But the S.D. defense is way down, and

    LaDainian Tomlinson (only 3.7 ypc) misses old FB Lorenzo Neal, while the

    slightly improving Raiders are 4-2 vs. spread on the road. TV—NFL NETWORK

    (08-S. Diego 28-OAK. 18...S.18-15 S.30/141 O.23/72 O.22/37/1/251 S.14/25/2/154 S.0 O.1)

    (07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)

    (07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3)

    (08-San Diego -8 28-18; 07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-41-2)

    SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7

    INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Cincinnati 17—Colts are back to their winning ways (5

    straight), but not exactly leaving much room for error (all by 6 or fewer). Indy

    offense felt the absence of key C Jeff Saturday in last week’s late escape at

    Cleveland (only Colt TD on fumble return). Expect a more characteristic effort

    from Peyton Manning after his first TD-less game since ‘03! But huge favorites

    usually not a high-percentage play in the NFL, and Indy only has one victory by

    more than six points TY!

    (2008 Preseason: Cincinnati +3 beat Indianapolis 27-7 at Indianapolis)

    (06-INDIANAPOLIS -3' 34-16...SR: Indianapolis 15-8)

    CHICAGO 30 - Jacksonville 20—Bears (including their coaching staff with its

    decisions) seemed to be determined to play a game of “giveaway” last week at

    Minnesota. But Chicago ought to be able to get Matt Forte (1005 YR) going

    against the Jags’ defense. More importantly, the Bears’ penetrating front four

    seems a good match vs. Jacksonville’s injury-thinned OL. Even in sometimes

    windy & wintry Chicago, Bears have a knack of going “over” at home (4-1 TY;

    19-5 last 24).

    (04-JACKSONVILLE -7 22-3...SR: EVEN 2-2)

    GREEN BAY 30 - Houston 28—G.B. defense appears to have flown south for

    the winter, with the Packers having yielded 86 points in their last two games.

    Houston (allowing 26.6 ppg TY prior to its Monday game vs. Jacksonville)

    hardly much better. So, with all the quality receivers in this game, orchestrated

    by the fertile offensive minds of Mike McCarthy & Gary Kubiak, prefer to look

    “over,” with the Pack “over” 22-8 last 30; Texans “over” 22-9-1 prior to their

    Monday nighter.

    (04-Green Bay -3 16-13...SR: Green Bay 1-0)

    TENNESSEE 28 - Cleveland 10—Browns have covered six straight as a dog.

    But with No. 3 QB Ken Dorsey being forced into action (Derek Anderson’s knee

    injury appears to have finished him for the season), and with the growing

    likelihood of a HC/GM housecleaning in Cleveland after the season, we’re

    reluctant to be enticed by the big pointspread vs. 11-1 Tennessee, even though the

    Titans are a “low variance” team. Browns 28th vs. the rush through 11 games.

    (05-CLE. -2' 20-14...SR: Cleveland 33-27)

    BALTIMORE 19 - Washington 9—Washington’s power outage now acute,

    with recent offensive blackout (only 4 TDs last 4 games; banged-up Clinton

    Portis just 22 YR last week vs. NYG) jeopardizing the Skins’ once-buoyant

    playoff hopes. Things don’t figure to get easier vs. Ray Lewis and the Baltimore

    defense that hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in any of its first five games at

    M&T Bank Stadium TY! Meanwhile, Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco (280 YP, 2

    more TDP, 0 ints. last week at Cincy) continues to soar. “Totals” alert–Skins

    “under” 7-0-1 last 8.

    (04-Baltimore -1 17-10...SR: Baltimore 2-1)

    N.Y. GIANTS 27 - Philadelphia 13—Props to Donovan McNabb for silencing

    the vultures on 610 WIP radio with four 4 TD passes Thanksgiving night vs.

    Arizona. But the pattern has been mostly inconsistent for McNabb (6 TDP vs.

    7 “picks” the five previous games). Meanwhile, Philly’s blitz-happy defensive

    style not as likely to work vs. ultra-balanced N.Y. offense that pounded Eagles

    for 219 YR in Giants’ 5-point Nov. 9 win at the Linc. Who needs Plaxico Burress

    (Eli Manning’s first 300-yard game of year last week without him)? G-Men 7-0

    SU and vs. line on latest uptick!

    (08-Nyg 36-PHIL. 31...N.26-17 N.45/219 P.21/106 P.17/36/1/194 N.17/31/1/182 N.1 P.1)

    (07-NYG 16-Phil. 3...16-16 P.23/114 N.27/83 N.14/26/1/129 P.15/31/0/76 N.0 P.1)

    (07-Nyg 16-PHIL. 13...P.18-15 P.28/141 N.27/111 N.17/31/0/207 P.20/31/0/165 N.2 P.1)

    (08-Giants +3 36-31; 07-GIANTS +2' 16-3, Giants +3 16-13...SR: NY Giants 81-67-2)

    NEW ORLEANS 31 - Atlanta 20—Payback time for Saints, who lost 34-20

    four weeks ago in Atlanta despite gaining 521 yards. Drew Brees suffered three

    ints. in that game, something unlikely to re-occur in the rematch on N.O.’s

    friendly home turf, where Saints are a heavenly 4-1 vs. the spread TY. RB

    Pierre Thomas has emerged as a solid weapon; now Reggie Bush is back.

    Brees (3870 YP) is after Marino’s single-season yardage record. Relentless

    N.O. is “over” 7-4-1 TY and 20-10-1 last 31.

    (08-ATL. 34-N. Orl. 20...N.25-18 A.36/113 N.17/105 N.31/58/3/414 A.16/23/0/248 A.0 N.0)

    (07-N. ORL. 22-Atl. 16...A.18-14 N.22/91 A.24/75 A.27/41/0/259 N.22/34/1/219 N.0 A.0)

    (07-N. Orl. 34-ATL. 14...N.23-13 N.30/145 A.16/37 N.28/41/0/328 A.23/40/1/286 N.1 A.0)

    (08-ATLANTA -1 34-20; 07-N. ORLEANS -8 22-16, N. Orleans -3' 34-14...SR: Atlanta 45-34)

    Buffalo 24 - Miami 19—With Trent Edwards suffering a strained groin last

    week, it might be veteran J.P. Losman (11 of 17 off the bench vs. S.F.) for the

    Bills in this game, being played at Toronto’s Rogers Centre, the indoor home of

    the American League Blue Jays. Bills (350 total yards) played semi-well last

    week vs. S.F., only to fall victim to two missed FGs and a fumble. Another loss

    could finish their playoff hopes. Dolphin defense is likely to provide just enough

    openings. (at Toronto, Canada)

    (08-MIAMI 25-Buf. 16...19-19 B.27/119 M.27/52 M.22/30/0/306 B.21/35/1/220 M.1 B.3)

    (07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)

    (07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)

    (08-MIAMI +1 25-16; 07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 51-37-1)

    DENVER 30 - Kansas City 26—Can’t lay points with Denver team whose

    defense is still hurting and which has failed to cover its last 5 at home. The

    underdog is now 9-1 in the Broncs’ last 10 games, while Chiefs 10-4 vs. the

    number their last 14 away. Moreover, the development of QB Tyler Thigpen &

    the return of RB Larry Johnson are providing K.C. with a fairly-competent

    offense. Eleven of the last 14 in the series have gone “over.”

    (08-K. CITY 33-Denver 19...D.22-17 K.33/213 D.22/94 D.29/49/2/352 K.21/28/0/157 K.1 D.2)

    (07-Denver 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)

    (07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2)

    (08-K. CITY +9' 33-19; 07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 53-44)

    ARIZONA 37 - St. Louis 16—Maybe the return of RB Steven Jackson signals

    more competitive efforts forthcoming from St. Louis, which at least “had a look”

    at a possible victory in the second half last week for first time in more than a

    month. Then again, maybe it doesn’t. Jackson was available when Arizona

    stomped the Rams by 21 at the Edward Jones Dome Nov. 2. Marc Bulger had

    3 more picks last week, and St. Louis hasn’t scored more than 16 in its last 6

    games. Potent Cards need one more win to clinch NFC West.

    (08-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 13...A.24-13 A.33/177 S.20/61 A.23/34/0/333 S.16/33/2/170 A.0 S.1)

    (07-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 31...24-24 S.23/123 A.31/102 A.21/41/2/281 S.24/43/3/252 A.0 S.0)

    (07-ARIZ. 48-St. Lou. 19...A.25-13 A.31/123 S.24/75 A.23/39/2/300 S.14/30/3/159 A.0 S.0)

    (08-Arizona -3 34-13; 07-Arizona -3' 34-31, ARIZONA -6 48-19...SR: St. Louis 31-27-2

    Dallas 24 - PITTSBURGH 22—Cowboys are a different team with Tony Romo

    back at the controls, with his anticipation, quick release, and mobility boosting

    the Dallas aerial game to one of the best in the league. Cowboys now control

    their own fate to make the playoffs, and the early reports on the Thanksgiving

    injuries of RB Marion Barber (toe) and LB DeMarcus Ware (knee; 15 sacks TY)

    are both positive. With Steelers also back in a groove, would tend to look “over”

    (Pittsburgh 4-2 “over” at home TY; 45-16-1 last 62).

    (04-Pittsburgh +3 24-20...SR: Dallas 15-14)

    *New England 24 - SEATTLE 16—Even though Seattle is a well-coached

    team laced with playoff veterans, it continues to suffer key losses, the latest

    being starting C Chris Spencer & fiery RG Mike Wahle (check status of both).

    Thus, QB Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee) continues to take a pounding (7 sacks

    on Thanksgiving). N.E. QB Matt Cassel (praised as a quick study) got a lesson

    from the Steelers’ zone blitz week ago. Can he deal with the NFL’s noisiest

    field? Note that Seattle has played five straight “unders.” TV—NBC

    (04-NEW ENGLAND -4 30-20...SR: EVEN 7-7)

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:38pm
17. 0 likes

    KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

    College System from Marc Lawrence,

    Hawaii Oh-Oh: Play against any college football favorite that plays their final regular

    season game in Hawaii if the Warriors win percentage is .500 or greater.

    Pointspread Record since 1980: 14-5 (74%)

    This week’s application: Hawaii (play against Cincinnati)

    College Football

    Saturday, December 6th, 2008

    Army (+11½) over Navy

    @Philadelphia, PA

    Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

    Count me as a fan of this service rivalry. There is

    plenty to dislike in these days in college football. The

    ESPN-ization of the college football season continues

    apace; you can't get serious Heisman cred if your

    games aren't on ABC or ESPN. The Big 12's front

    office apparently decided there should be a new

    Commandment: Thou shalt not be allowed to play

    pass defense. But Army-Navy is always there to

    remind us what "public service" really means and

    what real student athletes look like.

    This is a pretty odd game to handicap. Both teams

    run option-based offenses. Navy runs the ball for 4.8

    yards per rush and gives up 3.9. Army runs the ball

    for 4.8 y.p.r. and gives up 3.5. The Navy pass

    defense is horrible, giving up 8.5 yards per pass.

    Army's pass defense isn't much better, giving up 8.1

    yards per throw. These teams played similar

    schedules, so that can't be the reason why Navy is

    favored by double digits. Well, Navy is 7-4 and

    Army's record is 3-8. Reputation too certainly has a

    lot to with the line; Navy has experienced solid

    success for several years now, and Army is just

    beginning to see some sunshine after spending the

    better part of a decade stumbling in the dark.

    The hardest part to figure though concerns the stats

    I didn't mention: the passing offense. Navy's air

    game has been much, much better than Army's.

    Navy is throwing the ball for 9.2 yards per attempt

    while Army is pitiful at 4.0 yards per throw. But does

    that really mean much? The sample size is very

    small. Army is throwing the ball just over 10 times

    per game, while Navy is launching just over 7

    passes per contest. Texas Tech throws over 6 or 7

    quarters what these guys throw in a season. Can

    these passing numbers really trusted? Because if

    they can't, the Black Knights look very competitive in

    every other phase.

    The general tech goes strongly against the Middies.

    Navy applies to a negative 8-24 ATS last game

    system, a 64-113 ATS system that plays against

    well-rested favorites, and a 180-286 ATS statistical

    matchup indicator that is 13-25 this season. Most of

    my last game systems have not performed well this

    season, but the one that applies against Navy is 1-4

    since I started following it and those five teams have

    lost to the spread by an average of more than 15

    points per game.

    It’s hard to imagine either team suffering from a

    letdown, but if it is at all possible Navy would be the

    victim. The Midshipmen have already retained the

    service academies' Commander in Chief Trophy for

    the sixth straight year, and their holiday travel is

    booked with a visit to the Eagle Bank Bowl. But I

    think the key factor here are the rushing attacks.

    2008 marked Army's return to an option attack, and

    it has been an unqualified success. But in the last

    three games we may be seeing a decline from

    previous years at Navy. Under former coach Paul

    Johnson the Midshipmen played their best ball in

    November and December, averaging better than 37

    points per game from 2002 thru 2007. Running the

    option better than 50 times per game for 3 months

    had a way of fusing inferior athletes into a superior

    offense. But in the first year of Ken Niumatalolo's

    reign Navy has scored just 70 points in three

    November games and were held by a weak Notre

    Dame team to just season low of 178 rushing yards.

    Navy has won the last 6 games in this series by an

    average of 28 points. But this Black Knight defense

    knows the option a lot better than previous editions.

    This game will go down to the wire. Take the points.

    Navy by 3.

    East Carolina (+13½) over Tulsa

    C-USA Championship @Tulsa, OK

    Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

    After whipping UTEP 51-23, East Carolina punched

    their ticket to the C-USA title game. And that 51-

    point outburst was the first game this year in which

    the Pirates scored more than 30 points. Known a lot

    more for their defense, head coach Skip Holtz sees

    the dramatic increase in offense as a confidence

    builder heading into this game. “It was good for

    confidence,” Holtz said of the UTEP win. “Those

    offensive players and coaches have just kept

    hanging in there. I think they're starting to gain

    confidence and it's good for us as a football team.”

    As a whole, the East Carolina team is playing well.

    They enter this game having won five of their last

    six. Those wins were keyed by C-USA’s best

    defensive unit that allows just 20.5 points per game

    on 329 yards per game.

    Something’s got to give here though. East Carolina

    has the much better defense while Tulsa has the

    much better offense. The Pirates have held 10 of

    their 12 opponents to 30 points or less. The Golden

    Hurricane of Tulsa have one of the best offenses in

    all of college football. They scored 45 points or

    more in eight games, which includes three eyepopping

    point totals of 62, 63, and 77 points. As

    you can see, this game comes down to one thing;

    Tulsa’s offense against East Carolina’s defense.

    And in most cases, the defensive team wins out.

    While the Pirates have struggled all year to score

    points, they may be able to progress off their latest

    game as coach Holtz suggests. They’ll face a bad

    Tulsa defense that has allowed 414 yards or more in

    8 of their 12 games while giving up 5.9 yards per

    play. By comparison, East Carolina has allowed

    more than 384 yards in a game just twice this year.

    East Carolina has played the much tougher schedule

    as well. The Pirates played a non-conference slate

    that included a home game against West Virginia, a

    neutral site game against Virginia Tech, and roadies

    at NC State, and Virginia. ECU went 2-2 in those

    games beating both Virginia Tech and West Virginia

    as underdogs. They were road favorites in the other

    two, losing by 6 at NC State and by 15 at Virginia.

    Tulsa played only one game against a BCS

    conference school on the road at Arkansas. They

    lost that game 30-23. Both teams cracked the Top

    25 this year, and to think that these two are rated

    almost two touchdowns apart is hard to believe.

    Skip Holtz has been awesome in the underdog role

    at ECU. In his 4 years, the Pirates are 19-7 against

    the spread as an underdog including 14-4 away

    from home. While the site definitely favors Tulsa,

    East Carolina’s defense should keep this game close

    throughout. Tulsa by only 6.

    Virginia Tech vs. Boston College under 39½

    ACC Championship @Jacksonville, FL

    Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

    Settling their championship today, the ACC is a

    strange conference. 10 of the 12 teams in the

    league finished 5-3 or 4-4. There aren’t many

    offensive weapons and there really aren’t that many

    good teams. These clubs were far from dominant.

    BC outscored conference opponents 206-204.

    Virginia Tech did so 151-143. Virginia Tech is not

    ranked in the BCS top 25, while BC is 17th. Georgia

    Tech is 15th, but misses out on this game due to a

    tough loss to Virginia Tech back in September,

    before their offense really got cranking.

    The way these two teams are built is apparent when

    you look at their national rankings. Tech is ranked

    6th nationally in total defense, BC is 8th. Offensively

    BC is 93rd, Virginia Tech is 103rd. Not exactly Big 12

    South numbers in the ACC. Within their own

    conference, they brought up the rear offensively, as

    Virginia Tech was 9th in offensive yards per play in

    conference game, while BC was 11th. Defensively,

    Virginia Tech held their opponents to 268 yards or

    less in 6 of their 12 games, limiting their last five

    opponents to (most recent is first) 249, 136, 247,

    228, and 248 total yards. Boston College has gained

    244 yards or less in 4 of their last 6 games, and the

    Hokie defense is arguably better than any of those

    opponents. The Eagles have been bailed out by

    their defense forcing 16 turnovers in their last 5

    outings. When BC beat Tech earlier in the season, it

    was by a 28-23 final. But yardage was only 300-240

    in favor of the Eagles. The scoring was due to 2

    Virginia Tech interception returns for touchdowns,

    while BC returned a punt for a score. So 21 of those

    51 total points were on returns.

    This is the second straight year that these two meet

    in this game in a rematch of a regular season

    meeting. Thus, this is the fourth time they have met

    in the last 58 weeks. Such familiarity helps

    defenses, particularly when the attacks are as

    limited as these two, with very little playmaking

    ability on either offense. If this selection gets beat,

    it is unlikely to be due to an offensive explosion.

    Instead, it will be the opportunism of the defenses

    and special teams, as shown in their first meeting

    that resulted in three returns for TD’s. While

    Virginia Tech has the well-earned reputation over

    the years for creating points out of thin air, BC has 8

    returns for TD’s (2 punts, 5 INT’s, 1 fumble), while

    Virginia Tech had 4 (3 INT’s and a fumble return).

    But that will be drummed into the players’ heads all

    week long and these teams will be coached in the

    extreme to avoid mistakes on offense and special

    teams. With these limited offenses, the adage of

    “fewer mistakes wins” is certainly valid here.

    But while we have some fear for the manufactured

    points, those have also inflated the scoring

    averages, which keeps this line well above a key

    number like 37. With the sound defenses, the lack

    of offensive playmakers, coaches who don’t trust

    their quarterbacks, and the familiarity of playing

    each other for the fourth time since October 25th of

    last year, we’ll look for this to be a low-scoring

    slugfest of a game. Go under.

    Alabama (+10) vs. Florida

    SEC Championship @Atlanta, GA

    Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

    Well, it’s finally here. The game that sports bettors,

    the sports media, the Alabama non-believers, and

    Nick Saban Hate Club have waited the last two

    months for. The game where Alabama finally gets

    what’s coming to them and gets waxed by the

    Florida Gators. The media’s talking heads, who,

    every now and then for some reason choose to act

    like handicappers, sure look smart now as they have

    told the public hundreds of times that Florida would

    actually be favored in this game over the undefeated

    Crimson Tide. Well, they are favored, they are

    favored big, and you know what? You can go ahead

    and lay 10 with them if you like! After all, Florida is

    a lot flashier, with a much more high-powered.

    offense that is more fun to watch than Alabama.

    Yes, down the stretch they destroyed some good

    teams by ridiculous margins. Hell, when it’s all said

    and done, they may indeed be the nation’s best

    team! But let’s talk a little bit about the team you’d

    be laying those big points to.

    Alabama just waltzed through the SEC undefeated

    after opening the season with a massacre of a

    talented Clemson team on a neutral field. They are

    smashmouth football personified, and they have NFL

    caliber talent at a lot of positions, but most

    importantly on both lines. The offensive line has 3

    and possibly 4 1st day NFL draft choices on it, and

    they are as good a group as you’ll see in college

    football. They lead the way for a punishing running

    game that I’m not sure can be neutralized by any

    college football defense, even one as talented as

    Florida’s. On defense they are led by massive NT

    Tay Cody and All-American safety Rashad Johnson,

    and allow only 4.09 yards per play for the season.

    There is no weak link on the team, and although you

    can argue their least talented starter, QB John

    Parker Wilson is at a very important position, the

    running game, NFL caliber offensive line, and

    talented young receivers do Wilson’s job for him.

    Nick Saban’s team executes so crisply, and his and

    DC Kevin Steele’s defense have effectively shut

    down every different style offense that they have

    faced this season. Now UF’s offense may be on a

    totally different level than the rest of college

    football, but besides USC, whose defense is as good

    as Alabama’s? And whose running game is more

    physical? Sure, Florida destroyed a very good

    South Carolina defense, but the Gamecocks had no

    running game to keep UF off the field, and the score

    was 21-0 before the Gators had 80 yards of offense!

    Bama’s combination of ground game and suffocating

    defense can keep Tim Tebow and company off of

    the field, and perhaps win this thing outright.

    I respect Florida immensely, and please note this is

    more a play on Alabama than it is against UF. The

    Gators are +33 in net scoring margin and +3.4 net

    yards per play against a quality schedule. However,

    the Percy Harvin ankle injury is definitely an issue.

    He is the best non-QB skill position player in the

    nation, and UF’s offense was not the same early on

    when he was hobbled (9 points through 3 quarters

    against Miami, only 243 yards of total offense

    against Tennessee). Although I think this line is too

    high even with a healthy Harvin, it is just plain

    absurd if he is hobbled significantly, as he has a

    history of ankle problems. Bama didn’t win as

    prolifically as the Gators all season, but they didn’t

    have to as they were at the head of the pack, while

    Florida needed style points for the voters. Saban

    will play the disrespect card here as a heavy

    underdog, and an outright win wouldn’t shock me.

    Alabama by 1

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:39pm
18. 0 likes

    KEVIN O’NEILL’S THE MAX

    NFL System from Dave Fobare,

    When The Going Gets Tough The Tough Get Going: Play any team in the regular

    season that is tied or leads their division yet is off consecutive losses.

    Pointspread Record Since 1990: 71-49 (59.1%)

    This week’s application: Arizona Cardinal

    Road Chalk Bounceback: Play on any NFL road favorite that lost S/U at home in its

    previous game.

    Pointspread Record Since October, 2005: 33-17-1 (66%)

    This week’s application: New York Jets, New England Patriots

    NFL

    Thursday, November 20th, 2008

    Raiders (+10) over @Chargers

    Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

    The lines in San Diego’s games keep getting

    pushed higher and higher (or lower when

    they’ve been an underdog), due to their

    correctly perceived need to win. However,

    they simply keep losing and now they need

    much more than a win… they need a miracle.

    They now sit three games behind Denver with

    only four left to play. It’s obvious they are

    pressing, but it is even more obvious that this

    is simply not the same team that we saw in

    last season’s playoffs. Their only win in their

    last 6 games is by a single point at home off of

    a bye week against a Kansas City team that

    has two wins and six double digit losses on the

    season! I’m really not sure how that adds up

    to the Chargers laying double digits against

    anyone, let alone an Oakland team who just

    two weeks ago went into Denver and blew out

    the division-leading Broncos by 3 TDs! The

    Raiders are no great shakes, but they are

    better than the Lions and Bengals of the

    league, and at least they are trying. San Diego

    is a mentally and emotionally defeated team

    right now as high expectations, the loss of

    Shawne Merriman, and close loss after close

    loss has simply taken the spirit right out of

    them. LaDainian Tomlinson is obviously

    injured and not the same back we are used to

    seeing, and they are not playing physical on

    either side of the ball. This is not the first time

    that a Norv Turner-coached team has

    underachieved, ya know.

    Oakland has some decent young talent on both

    sides of the ball, and they haven’t given up more

    than 20 points in their last 4 games, all of which

    came against respectable offensive clubs Carolina,

    Miami, Denver and Kansas City. I expect them to

    play with more verve here than the Chargers, as

    they led Diego for 3 quarters in the 1st meeting, and

    were tied with 2 and change left before blowing it

    late. Their special teams are also playing very well

    with ace returner Johnnie Lee Higgins housing a

    couple of punts the last couple of weeks and

    Sebastian Janokowski booting field goals from all

    over the place. Double-digit road dogs in this

    league now stand 17-5 ATS, and the Chargers may

    really fall apart here if things don’t go their way

    early. San Diego by only 3.

    Sunday, December 7th, 2008

    Bengals (+14) over @Colts

    Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

    Yes the Bengals are awful, but the Colts hardly

    deserve to be a two-touchdown favorite over

    anybody, including the Bungles. After 11 games of

    waiting the "real" Peyton Manning has yet to show

    up on a consistent basis. Manning is still accurate,

    completing 63.1% of passes versus a career average

    of 64.1% completions. But the passes are shorter

    and the yards after the catch are less, resulting in

    an average of 6.63 yards per attempt, a full yard per

    attempt lower than his career mark and the lowest

    total since his 1998 rookie season. That decline is

    why Manning's 2008 QB rating is 85.3 in a career

    that has averaged a 94.0 rating. You might want to

    explain why this season is an aberration, or perhaps

    point to the aging Marvin Harrison as the culprit. But

    while this season's drop seems extreme, it is

    nonetheless a continuation of a trend that started in

    2005. In 2004 when Manning managed a career

    best 121.1 rating. In 2005 the rating declined to

    104.1. In 2006 he dropped further still to 101.0. In

    2007 the rating dropped to 98.0. The dropbacks are

    just a bit slower, and the arm isn't quite as strong.

    In short, Peyton Manning is getting old.

    By no means am I arguing that the Bengals are

    undervalued or better than their dismal 1-10-1

    record. They have earned every bit of that mark. But

    if a bettor is willing to be patient and wait for the

    right spots bad teams can make you money. The

    part about being patient is the key. Too many

    bettors want to jump on bad teams when they flash

    a decent effort. If you want to bet a bad team, it is

    generally best to wait until they look REALLY bad.

    And last week's 34-3 home loss to the Ravens and

    their rookie QB Joe Flacco certainly qualifies.

    Cincinnati applies to a 139-83 ATS bad underdog

    scenario that is 5-3 this season, including covers on

    Kansas City and St Louis last weekend. The other

    strong tech I have here is a 25-55 ATS anti-big

    favorite play that applies to the Colts and is 4-9

    since I started following it a couple of years ago.

    The Colts have won 8 games but 7 of those wins

    were by 6 points or less. Good times win games but

    great teams win games easily. Yet NFL bettors

    continue to price the Colts as though they are still a

    great team. All those close wins from a fair offensive team

    have a tendency to cloud bettor's judgments, which is why

    Indy is only 4-7-1 against the number. A piece of general

    tech from my database might explain better the public

    psychology in play: from Game 7 on NFL teams with a

    winning record better than 0.600 that score better than 21

    points per game but outscore their opponents by just zero

    to 3 points per game are just 79-115 ATS since 1990. The

    Bengals may be bad, but from a wagering perspective the

    Colts are worse. Take the points. Indianapolis by 7

    @Packers (-5½) over Texans

    Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

    We went against the Packers at home last

    week in this space but this week we’re going to

    go with the Cheeseheads. The Packers lost to

    the Panthers at home on Sunday, with some

    questionable strategy by Coach Mike McCarthy

    kicking a field goal with the ball on the oneyard

    line in the late stages of a 28-28 game

    when they were having trouble stopping the

    Panthers. Perhaps the coach was spooked by

    consecutive failures on 2nd and 1 and 3rd and 1,

    but after a kickoff return to the 45-yard line,

    the Panthers drove for the game winning TD.

    Carolina was in a good spot in that one,

    coming off a divisional loss that made their

    lead in the standings a little more precarious.

    But Carolina was outplayed by the Packers for

    large stretches of that ballgame. Green Bay’s

    field position issues, poor kick coverage, and

    turnovers allowed the Panthers to engineer 5

    TD drives of between 17 and 55 yards. Very

    seldom will you see a team gain 300 total

    yards yet score 5 TD’s. The Packers 438-300

    yardage advantage and 26-16 edge in first

    downs went for naught.

    For the second straight week, Green Bay was

    burned by big plays in the passing game. And

    the Texans Andre Johnson is certainly a guy

    who can get a big play. But the Texans are off

    a home Monday night contest that is a

    spotlight game for them. Is this warm

    weather/indoor team, out of the playoff hunt, going

    to come up with a big performance in December on

    the road on the Frozen Tundra? Don’t expect that,

    and particularly don’t expect it if the Texans are off

    a Monday night win over the Jaguars (game yet to

    go as we write this).

    The Packers have had a disappointing season, but

    they have enough solid young players that are

    building for the future that we expect to have a solid

    effort for them here. And after laying 3 against a

    solid team in a bounce back spot they are now

    laying not that much more against a non-contender

    in a non-prime scheduling situation. They just need

    to translate some of their success at the line of

    scrimmage last week to the scoreboard. Expect

    much greater efficiency than their defenses 8.5

    yards per point allowed effort on Sunday, as against

    teams ranked better than 27th in offense (aka not

    Browns, Lions, or Bengals), Houston has allowed 28

    points or more every time. Packers by 11.

    Eagles (+9) over @Giants

    Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

    After back-to-back embarrassing performances,

    Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb put on a

    show against Arizona on Thanksgiving night.

    McNabb threw four touchdown passes and zero

    interceptions while completing 69.2% of his

    passes in Philadelphia’s 48-20 win. That’s like

    night and day from his previous two games in

    which he threw just one TD pass and five picks

    while completing only 47.4% of his passes.

    McNabb and head coach Andy Reid seem to

    have moved on from their differences (winning

    heals all), so there should be good focus this

    week in practice. The Eagles are holding on to

    slim playoff hopes, and this is a must have

    game if they want to keep those hopes alive.

    The Giants certainly look like the best team in the

    NFL right now. They are on a 7-game win and

    covering streak, but this looks like a decent spot to

    play against the Giants. They return home after

    playing three of their last four games on the road.

    And one of those games was at Philadelphia. The

    Giants were a 3-point underdog in that game and

    escaped with a 36-31 win. But that was a referee

    aided win. The refs blew two calls in the game that

    allowed the Giants to score two touchdowns that

    turned the whole game around. Aside from that,

    New York did rack up a ton of yards on the ground

    (219), but Eli Manning was unimpressive throwing

    the ball. He was just 17-31 with 191 yards.

    Manning has never been a good quarterback when

    pressured, and Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jim

    Johnson is the best at doing exactly that. Manning

    has faced the Eagles eight times in his career. He’s

    won six, but the wins have come by only 6.6 points

    per game, which makes this line look a bit high.

    These two are very familiar with each other’s

    personnel. And that familiarity will make it hard for

    the Giants to win this game by a significant margin.

    Brian Westbrook is finally healthy, and that spells

    trouble for the Giants. Westbrook has either scored,

    topped 100 total yards, or done both in eight of nine

    games against the Giants since 2003. On the other

    hand, the guy who gives the Eagles fits most likely

    will not be on the field. Plaxico Burress has done

    the same as Westbrook in seven of eight games

    against the Eagles. But considering the gun charges

    he faces, he won’t be catching footballs on Sunday.

    Over the last three years, the Eagles are 8-2 against

    the spread as a road underdog. They also have

    extra rest and prep time after playing last Thursday,

    which makes them a very live dog here. Giants by

    only 1.

    Chiefs @Broncos over 48

    Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill

    Stymied by injuries, and a midseason slump by Jay

    Cutler, the Broncos are once again playing well,

    especially offensively. The ultra-confident Cutler

    (what’s this week’s pronouncement? Maybe “I’m a

    better basketball player than Jordan ever was.”) has

    once again been red hot the past couple of weeks,

    and he truly may have the best arm in the league.

    In the past four games he has averaged more than

    8 yards per pass attempt three times, with all three

    of those being road wins, including road victories at

    playoff-bound Falcons and Jets. After burning

    through their top four backs, the Broncos stuffed

    fullback Peyton Hillis into a peg that didn’t seem to

    fit, but Hillis ripped the Jets for 129 yards on 22

    carries. And now he faces a Chiefs defense that has

    allowed 20 rushing TD’s this year. That’s just one

    element of the Chiefs defense that the Broncos will

    be pleased to see. The Broncos haven’t been at their

    best offensively at home in a while, but that is cured

    this week with the arrival of the Chiefs defense.

    Don’t let the fact that KC just held the Raiders to 13

    points and 271 yards fool you, as the Raiders

    offense is dreadful. The Chiefs gave up 28 points or

    more in 6 of their previous 7 games. And now the

    Broncos offense, brimming with confidence, gets to

    face a much weaker stop unit than they’ve seen in

    recent weeks. The Chiefs have a defensive injury

    list that needs to be presented on a scroll. And the

    players who are playing have little experience, as

    the unit is loaded with rookies (the Chiefs have 17

    rookies overall). They have zero pass rush (only 6

    sacks through 12 games) and the Broncos onceagain

    high-powered offense will be a rude

    awakening for them after feasting on a feckless

    Raiders attack.

    In their last seven games, the Chiefs offense had

    one horrifically sloppy game, giving up 5 turnovers

    to the Bills. Other than that, KC has turned the ball

    over only twice in that seven game stretch. A

    second year no-name out of Coastal Carolina

    (known for their baseball, not football), Tyler

    Thigpen has shown significant potential. After

    struggling in his first few games, Thigpen has an 11

    TD/4 INT differential lately, while completing passes

    as a higher percentage. He’s very mobile, and

    rolling him out makes up for some of the problems

    on the Chiefs offensive line. And he’s taking on a Broncos

    D that has given up 30 or more in 6 of their 12 games this

    season. So the Chiefs should be able to put some points

    on the board themselves.

    With these two defenses ranked 28th (Denver) and last

    (Kansas City) in the NFL, and both in the lower quadrant of

    most categories, don’t expect either unit to be able to

    replicate their solid Sunday performances. Against these

    lousy D’s both quarterbacks should get a lot done here.

    Keep an eye on the weather, but if that’s not a factor, look

    to the over in Denver.

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:40pm
19. 0 likes

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

    AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

    PLAY ON any college home dog with a

    winning record if they won 8 or more

    games last season and were favored

    by 25 > points in their last game

    versus a foe that is not undefeated.

    Play On: HAWAII WARRIORS

    ATS W-L Record Since 1980:14-2 (88%)

    INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

    The Chicago Bears are 0-14 SU and ATS

    in Game Thirteen when their win percentage

    is less than .700 on the season

    There have been a total of 31 college football same-season

    rematches where one team beat the other in the fi rst game.

    In 25 of the 31 rematches, the team who lost the fi rst game

    either won the game or played closer in the rematch game!

    Thursday, December 4th

    RUTGERS over Louisville by 16

    Did anyone catch that freight train tearing threw Piscataway? It’s Greg

    Schiano’s Scarlet Knights and they’re taking no prisoners during an impressive

    5-game winning streak. They have also covered 6 of 7 and show no signs

    of slowing down this week, boasting a healthy 5-1 ATS mark in their Last

    Home Game when playing with revenge. Schiano’s crew is also 7-0 against

    the number with revenge versus a sub .500 foe. And thanks to Louisville’s

    4-game losing skid that’s seen its defense shredded for 132 points, that’s

    exactly where Kragthorpe’s Redbirds reside – under the water level. The

    visitors desperately need a win to become bowl eligible but, at 6-6, that may

    not even be enough to guarantee an invitation. With the series visitor 0-3

    SU and ATS recently, we’ll be jumping on the bandwagon…err, freight train,

    known as Rutgers. All aboard!

    Friday, December 5th

    MAC CHAM P IONSHI P

    Ball St over Buffalo by 13

    Can’t blame the Gonads if they don’t go ‘balls-out’ in tonight’s MAC

    championship. After all, while a win does complete a perfect 13-0 campaign

    for the 12th-ranked Cardinals, they’ll likely be relegated to a bowl game

    south of January 1st. Turner Gill’s Bulls appear to be a dangerous dog in this

    spot as our trusty database informs us that championship dogs of more than

    6 points who score 21 or more points are a sterling 14-3 ATS – and the Bulls

    have lit up the scoreboard for 21 or more in all but one game this season. Oh,

    we should also inform you about this other interesting tidbit: teams in MAC

    title games off 3 SU wins are just 1-5 SU and 0-4-2 ATS. Throw in the fact

    that undefeated favorites of 17 or less points are 1-5 ATS in championship

    games and it looks like the men of Muncie enter this showdown with the

    proverbial noose around their necks. We’re not quite ready to run with the

    Bulls so we’ll opt for a slow jog instead.

    Saturday, December 6th

    Navy over Army by 14

    In a desperate bid to attract viewers to the annual battle for the

    Commander-In-Chief trophy, CBS is actually promoting this weekend’s

    Army-Navy game as “one of the greatest spectacles in all of sports.”

    Uh… can you run that by us one more time? Yes, we are a nation at war

    and it may be considered disrespectful to downplay the signifi cance of

    Saturday’s matchup but we honestly don’t know a single person without

    a sizable wager on the outcome who’s going to watch this mind-numbing

    scrum. However, we can tell you that our ticket will have ‘NAVY’ stamped

    all over it in plain view. We’re aware that the QB with the impossibleto-

    spell-or-pronounce last name may not be manning the helm for the

    Middies but that’s not a problem. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs, who had looked

    impressive coming off the bench in 3 straight games, got his fi rst start last

    week against a tough Northern Illinois defense and rushed for 124 yards

    en route to the Mids’ 16-0 win. He also directed his offense to scoring

    drives on its fi rst two possessions while hogging the ball for more than

    17 minutes in the fi rst half. Yes, we’re aware Navy has locked up a bid

    to appear in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C. but that

    won’t lessen their intensity here in a bid to secure the Academy’s 6th

    straight CIC Trophy. Not only are the swabbies a super 10-1 as chalk with

    rest, they’re an outstanding 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 5-plus years

    versus Military opposition. No doubt that Army’s improved on both sides

    of the ball this year; in fact, both teams have posted remarkably similar

    numbers in yards gained and allowed. But the Middies are far less likely to

    beat themselves, racking up 27 takeaways this season for a +14 turnover

    margin compared to Army’s -12 TO embarrassment. Navy also converts a

    higher percentage of 3rd-down situations, averages 1.1 yards more per

    play than the Cadets and just so happens to catch Army marching straight

    down the path to pointspread oblivion: the Black Knights are a woeful

    1-17 SU and 2-16 ATS with rest versus an opponent with a win percentage

    of > .333. With the Midshipmen outscoring the infantry by 16 PPG while

    navigating a much tougher schedule, we think it’s time to go full speed

    ahead with the Annapolis armada. Sail on, sail on, sailor…

    UCONN over Pittsburgh by 4

    Jeez, as much as we’ve ragged on Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt

    this season the fact is Wanny’s Panthers are sitting at 8-3 and poised to lead

    their Steel City fans to a bowl game for the fi rst time since 2005, the year

    then-coach Walt Harris’ skein of 5 straight bowl appearances was snapped.

    Pittsburgh has fueled its recent turnaround by winning the close games: 4

    of the Black Cats’ 8 wins have come by 1, 5, 3 and 4 points. The visitors are

    looking to settle the score for last season’s 34-14 drubbing, losing outright

    to UConn as 7.5 point home chalk but Pitt may still be celebrating its second

    straight win over West Virginia in their fabled ‘Backyard Brawl’ (Panthers just

    2-5 ATS away after WVU). Regardless of the intangibles surrounding today’s

    game, both defenses had better be prepared for some smashmouth football

    – Connecticut’s Donald Brown and Pittsburgh’s LeSean “Shady” McCoy are

    two of the nation’s most hard-nosed, relentless running backs. The Huskies

    have cashed in 3 of the 4 most recent meetings and a UConn victory along

    with some help from its friends could lead to a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the

    conference with Pitt and West Virginia. This just in from our database: bowl

    teams playing their Last Home Game with rest as dogs or favorites of less

    than 4 points are a solid 23-12 ATS, including 9-3 off a loss. Look for Brown,

    the NCAA’s leading rusher, to rebound from a sub-par outing against South

    Florida and lead the Sled Dogs to win No. 8 on Senior Day.

    WEST VIRGINIA over South Florida by 8

    We’ve seen some unexpectedly disappointing performances this season by

    decent teams – Tennessee, Fresno State and Purdue to name a few – but

    few have slammed into the earth with a more resounding thud than the

    battered Bulls of South Florida. With QB Matt Grothe back to direct a team

    that had logged consecutive 9-4 bowl campaigns, the Bulls were expected

    to stomp through the Big East china shop and emerge with a conference

    championship. Adding to USF’s confi dence were a pair of upsets over

    conference bear West Virginia – 21-13 as a 7-point home dog last year and

    a 24-19 win here as 21-point mutts in ’06. But following a torrid 5-0 SU

    start in ‘08, Grothe & company have stumbled badly in league play, going

    2-4 SU and ATS. Even worse, if we toss out the 45 points the Bulls put on

    lowly Syracuse, they’re averaging a mere 16.8 PPG against Big East foes.

    That won’t get the job done against a bunch of double-revenging Hillbillies

    eager to make superstar QB Pat White’s fi nal home game with West Virginia

    one for the books (White is now college football’s all-time career rushing

    QB). The Mounties will be doubly pissed, too, after blowing last week’s

    game with Pitt (and a shot at the conference crown) in the closing seconds

    at Heinz Field. It’s simple: we’d rather risk our loot on a WVU team that’s

    4-0 SU at home off a previous home loss with White than ask the most

    underachieving 7-4 squad in American to play with some heart. Lay it if

    you play it.

    CALIFORNIA over Washington by 31

    With Alabama versus Florida starting about an hour after this one, my

    guess is that Nielsen is going to report there was one viewer for this game

    – and that was Ty Willingham’s aunt. We do think the Huskies will play hard

    in Tyrone’s send-off but how do you back the only team in the FBS that’s

    been outgained in EVERY contest this season – and lost the Crapple Bowl to

    pathetic Washington State? When they are facing a Cal squad that appears

    to have already gone into hibernation, that’s how! The Berkeley Bears have

    dropped 2 of their last 3 contests (all three ITS) and are just 1-7 ATS their last

    8 regular games with rest. These guys might be smarter than the average

    bear, but Boo Boo, we ain’t layin’ 5 TDs with this sleep-walking bunch. Take

    it if you absolutely must play it.

    Usc over UCLA by 28

    Remember those posters and print ads that Neuheisel and the Bruins

    produced early in the season promoting UCLA football? We have a feeling

    that the ones that didn’t end up as trash liners in the Memorial Coliseum

    garbage cans are hanging in the USC locker room. With a trip to the Rose

    Bowl on the line, Carroll really doesn’t need much ammo to win this one…

    especially with a smothering “D” that has held 7 opponents to season low

    yardage. To steal a line from one of our favorites, Maxwell Smart, “Would

    you believe a kid on a bicycle with a BB gun?” could probably slow down a

    Bruins offense that is averaging less than 20 PPG on the season. Both teams

    have numbers to support their case. The Trojans boast a 5-1 ATS mark as

    chalk off a non-conference SU win of 21 or more points while the Bruins

    check in at 4-0 ATS in their Last Home Game – plus they’re 5-0 as HD’s of 7 or

    more points. The big number looks just about right but it’s only moving in

    one direction (upward) and that will likely keep us leaning to the dog.

    ARIZONA over Arizona State by 11

    Dennis Erickson’s crew needs this one to become bowl eligible but they

    might not have enough fi repower to get it done. Don’t be fooled by last

    week’s 34-9 “phony” win over UCLA as the Sun Devils were held to just 122

    yards total offense and relied on their defense for a majority of those points.

    However, we’re not “wild” about these Arizona Cats, either, as they bring a

    2-12 ATS Last Home Game mark into this contest – and they’re also a moneyburning

    3-17 ATS as home favorites of more than 3 points. An interesting

    side note to this desert battle: the Sun Devils’ 5th-year SR QB Rudy Carpenter

    has never lost to the Wildcats. We’re just going to watch this one to see if

    Rudy can get one for the thumb. Pass.

    Cincinnati over HAWAII by 3

    It’s only fi tting that the Bearcats should be rewarded with a sun-splashed

    Hawaiian vacation before heading off to their fi rst-ever BCS bowl game

    in January. A win here will push Cincy’s SU record to 21-5 under 2nd-year

    coaching phenom Brian Kelly but pocketing the ATS dough may not be

    so easy. Teams off a home game playing their fi nal game of the season in

    Hawaii are 5-10 SU and ATS when the Warriors own a win percentage of

    .500 or greater. UH also takes protecting its home turf very seriously, going

    10-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 20 or less points. Yes, Cincinnati is

    4-0-1 off a SU Big East home win of 20 or more points and the ‘Cats are 14-1-

    1 ATS off back-to-back home games – but none of those contests involved a

    layover in Honolulu en route to a big bowl game on the mainland. With the

    visitors possibly looking to rest key players and avoid injury, we’ll take a cue

    from this week’s AWESOME ANGLE and side with the Grass Skirts today.

    ADDED GAMES

    TROY over Arkansas St by 11

    Though the fi nal days of the college football season leave us with a tinge

    of sadness, there’s always a silver lining to the dark cloud: we don’t have to

    spend any more time analyzing games for a bunch of Sun Belt garbage scows

    that shouldn’t even be on the board. Even so, we’ll roll up our sleeves, crank

    up the database and take our medicine like big boys. The numbers do not

    favor the hosts today. Troy is a miserable 1-7 ATS during the regular season

    when playing with rest and they continue to fail in Last Home Game scenarios,

    going 1-6 ATS of late (0-3 SUATS L3Y). The Red Wolves have covered 3 of the

    last 4 get-togethers and they owe the Trojans big-time for last year’s 27-0

    home shutout loss. Arky State also needs to beat Troy today to tie for the SBC

    title but with the Alabama Trojans winning the stat wars in 10 of 11 games

    this season, we don’t see that happening. You’re on your own here.

    FLORIDA INT’L over W Kentucky by 3

    If you live near the Miami area, there’ll be plenty of good seats available

    for today’s merciful season-ender between these two underachievers. The

    rusty 2-9 Hilltoppers haven’t played a game in three weeks and will drag

    along an 0-3 ATS ball and chain as favorites or dogs of less than 10 points.

    Having dropped to 4-7 after last week’s overtime loss to Florida Atlantic,

    FIU has no shot at a winning season and will probably just go through the

    motions before heading off to a South Beach keg party. The not-so-golden

    Panthers have been favored by more than 6 points TWICE since coming on

    board – and they lost the whole game both times. FIU also bears the added

    stigma of being installed as home chalk off an OT loss, always a recipe for

    pointspread disaster. Put a gun to our head and we’ll lean to the dog!

    C - U SA CHAM P IONSH I P

    TULSA over E Carolina by 16

    Note to Hurricane head coach Todd Graham: add David Bailiff to your

    Christmas shopping list. Were it not for Rice’s stirring upset over Houston,

    Tulsa would not be playing this week. Instead, they’ll host East Division

    winner East Carolina at H.A. Chapman Stadium for the C-USA cheese. And

    like a storm a-brewing, the numbers are strong in the Hurricane’s favor.

    Aside from owning a 3-0 SU and ATS series mark against the Pirates, Tulsa

    should also like the fact that the home team in C-USA championship game

    history is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Granted, ECU head coach Skip Holtz is 19-

    5 ATS when taking points but his club is on a 2-8 ATS skid in its last ten games

    (the Bandits managed an 0-6 ATS effort as a visitor this season). We also

    note a disturbing 10-31-1 ATS mark as a dog for ECU in games in which they

    surrender more than 38 points. A quick check of Graham’s dossier fi nds that

    Tulsa has averaged 50 PPG at home under his direction. In fact, they’ve lit it

    up to the tune of 60.5 PPG at Chapman Stadium this season. After taking it

    on the chops at UCF in the title game last year in a 44-25 setback, we’ll issue

    a Hurricane warning in Northeast Oklahoma this Saturday. Tulsa Tempest!

    ACC CHAM P IONSH I P

    Va Tech over Boston College by 3

    Play it again, Sam. That could certainly be the theme surrounding the ACC

    Championship game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa this Saturday.

    These same two teams squared off in last year’s title tilt when the Hokies

    captured a 30-16 win, a game in which they were outstatted 389-300.

    Normally that would set the table for a revenge call to BC. The problem is

    they already extracted their piece of fl esh in a 28-23 victory at Chestnut Hill

    earlier this season. Thus it becomes advantage, Frank Beamer. And Beamer

    is at his best when he’s looking to avenge a conference loss where he stands

    20-4-2 ATS against a .500 or greater foe. That weaves nicely into the fact that

    the team looking to settle a score is 2-0 SU and ATS in ACC championship

    games. The Eagles closed strong, going 4-0 SU and ATS in their fi nal four

    games despite losing starting QB Chris Crane to a broken collarbone two

    games ago. The bottom line here is the ever-sagacious SMART BOX comes to

    Tech’s aid and Beamer-ball is at its best in big games. As Ilsa would have said

    to Beamer, “Play it again, Frank.”

    S EC CHAM P IONSHI P

    Florida over Alabama by 7

    We don’t know who will ultimately be matched up in this year’s BCS dogand-

    pony show for the ‘national championship’ but if today’s game even

    remotely lives up to expectations, it could blow the BCS Bowl right out of

    the water. Both Alabama coach Nick Saban and Florida leader Urban Meyer

    are two of the college game’s biggest success stories, molders of aggressive

    and physically overpowering squads that fi nd ways to impose their will on

    their opponents (each man has won a national title with an SEC program).

    However, both coaches own such combative personalities that they’re reviled

    by the media and fans alike for their win-at-all-cost philosophy and refusal

    to make nice during press conferences and interviews. Big deal… Saban and

    Meyer are outstanding evaluators of talent in addition to being top-notch

    motivators and the winner of this mega-showdown will have an opportunity

    to claim a 3rd consecutive national crown for the Southeastern Conference.

    As you might expect, each squad brings some solid pointspread credentials

    to the table today. Bama has cashed 4 straight in the series, the Tide has

    rolled to a near-fl awless 10-0-1 ATS record as dogs of 6 or more points off BB

    SU wins since 1990 and Saban owns a 19-8 ATS log playing off consecutive

    SUATS wins. Also, undefeated teams in conference championship games are

    9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS of late (strangely 0-5 ATS if they allow < 13.5 PPG). The

    swamp-dwellers counter with an 8-0-1 ATS mark vs .850 > conference foes

    from Game Six out, they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in SEC title games and head Gator

    Meyer is 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS when tackling an undefeated opponent.

    Alabama has earned its current position at the top of the BCS heap but this

    year’s Florida team is clearly something special. Not only have the Gators

    annihilated their last 8 adversaries by an average of 39.6 PPG, last week

    they also became the fi rst team ever that was not undefeated to beat the

    Florida State at home when the Seminoles were playing off a previous home

    loss under Bobby Bowden (his teams had gone 23-0 SU under his tenure

    since 1974). But even though Meyer’s dizzying array of offensive formations

    makes the Alabama scheme look like it was taken straight from a bottle of

    vanilla extract, the truth is both teams excel at running the ball and stopping

    the run. That being the case, we just can’t lay doubles to the hungry, wellcoached

    Crimson Tide. Gators chomp their way to the BCS title game but

    Bama pockets the cash.

    B I G 12 CHAM P IONSHI P

    Oklahoma over Missouri by 16

    Don’t mention this game to Longhorn fans: Texas will be watching the two

    teams it beat this season play for the Big 12 championship and a possible

    trip to the BCS title game. It’s just the latest in a sorry series of events that

    will continue to plague college football until a playoff system is fi nally

    approved. Just look at the opening round games if an 8-team playoff format

    using the BCS ratings was in place right now – Alabama versus Penn State,

    Oklahoma in a rematch with Texas Tech, Texas against undefeated Utah and

    Florida versus USC. Wow! Instead, what many think we’ll get here is just

    a glorifi ed scrimmage ending in yet another Sooner rout. A litany of ATS

    numbers does little to challenge that expectation. Mizzou owns a lifeless

    1-18 SU and 7-12 ATS mark in the last 19 meetings and the underdog has

    cashed only 4 times in 12 tries in Big 12 championship games. Even worse for

    the Tigers, they’re 16-73 ATS in games where they allow 35 or more points

    – and Stoops’ troops have scored 35 or more in EVERY GAME this year. In

    fact, OU’s powerful offense has scored an incredible 61 TDs in 71 tries in the

    Red Zone this season and they may get to face Missouri without the Tigers’

    all-world WR Jeremy Maclin, hurt last week in a loss to Kansas. But – and

    it’s a really BIG but – despite all this overwhelming support in favor of the

    Sooner juggernaut, they’ve still “got to play the game” and we think QB

    Chase Daniel and company will not go quietly tonight. Coming off a lastminute

    setback to the Jayhawks and burning to get even for last year’s 38-17

    embarrassment by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, Mizzou could use

    the Arrrowhead Stadium crowd support to major advantage. However, the

    biggest reason we’re waffl ing here is the line: opening at 15.5 points, the

    number has climbed to 18 and will probably go even higher before kickoff.

    We’ll wait and see where things settle before pulling the trigger

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:41pm
20. 0 likes

    MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

    5 BEST BET

    GREEN BAY over Houston by 17

    Now here’s a cold weather site we can sink our teeth into. There’s

    nothing like the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to get the juices

    fl owing. Much like Minnesota’s ‘must-win’ game against the Bears

    last week, Green Bay fi ts the mold today. At 5-7 on the season, it’s

    suddenly win or stay home time for the Packers. Enter Houston, fresh

    off its climate-controlled Monday night division revenge win over

    the Jaguars. With that we turn to our trusty database for just the

    numbers that fi t this game like an abacus. It seems that since 1980

    the Cheeseheads use their home environment to a major advantage

    this time of the year where they are 33-6 SU and 25-13-1 ATS as home

    favorites in December, including 18-4 ATS when hosting an opponent

    off a win! They are also 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS at Vince’s place from

    Game Ten out when playing off a SU favorite loss. Couple that with

    the Texans’ 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS mark on the road off a win in their

    history, including 0-5 SU and ATS against .500 or less opposition, and

    you can understand our craving for extra cheese. As you please.

    4 BEST BET

    CAROLINA over Tampa Bay by 14

    To say life at home is sweet for residents of the NFC South Division this

    season would be an understatement. That’s confi rmed by a staggering

    21-2 SU and 16-6-1 ATS mark in 2008, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in

    division duke-outs. That sets the table for tonight’s play… that and

    our ever reliable PROVE IT ALL NIGHT Monday Night theory from

    Marc Lawrence. The Bucs have been hot since the insertion of QB Jeff

    Garcia, for sure. But they are just 1-10 ATS in December with a .500 or

    greater record when coming in off a division game. Couple that with

    the Panthers’ 21-2 ATS mark at home in SU division victories in their

    franchise history and we have the makings of another big play from

    the Boss. As he says, “If you want it, you take it, you pay the price…”

    3 BEST BET

    Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 3

    It’s not easy building a case to fade the best team in the league but

    we’re doing just that here with the Eagles today. After getting off

    the .500 hump with an impressive win over the Cardinals Thanksgiving

    evening (a 5* Playbook Best Bet), Andy Reid’s crew will look to avenge

    a 36-31 home loss suffered a month ago. We’ve lauded Reid’s success in

    division revenge on these pages. Simply put he’s in a class by himself in

    these games, especially on the road where the Eagles are 10-4 SU and

    12-2 ATS when avenging a division loss under Reid, including 7-0 SU

    and ATS the last seven games! Tie that into the fact that teams riding a

    7-game exact win streak who have covered the spread in each of their

    last 3 games are just 2-10-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points and

    just like that we have the makings of a live dog. No Big Blue here. Just

    a nice and natural straight-up win for a hungry puppy. Eagles soar!

    Thursday, December 4th

    SAN DIEGO over Oakland by 8

    Go fi gure. The Chargers beat the Raiders in Oakland, 28-18, as 8.5-point

    favorites and come back home in the rematch at a price in the same

    neighborhood! That’s how bad things are going for Norv Turner’s troops

    these days. In fact, San Diego will need to win each of their fi nal four games

    to avoid its fi rst losing season since 2001. We’d love to sink our teeth into

    these underachievers but experience has taught us different. When a team

    is going bad you NEVER want to lay double-digits with them. They tried it

    when hosting the Chiefs a month ago and barely escaped with a 1-point win.

    Sure, San Diego has dominated this series (10-1 ATS last eleven games) but

    the Raiders counter with a 9-0 ATS mark as division dogs with revenge off a

    division game when playing an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. Oakland’s

    overland game – they gain 4.3 Yards Per Rush; Diego allows 4.0 Yards Per

    Rush – becomes the edge in tonight’s affair. Turner drops to 12-26 ATS in his

    NFL career as a division host.

    Sunday, December 7th

    INDIANAPOLIS over Cincinnati by 13

    Okay. All those teams interested in squaring off against the Colts in this year’s

    playoffs please step forward. We said… please step forward. Hmm. Where

    are all the wannabes? Our best guess is they will be busy doing everything

    in their power from now until season’s end to avoid any such confrontation.

    With 5 straight wins in their pocket, there’s a real good chance Peyton’s

    pals will be riding a 9-game win streak come January. Tony Dungy’s task will

    be to keep his club fully focused, especially against the lightweights of the

    league. And the battered and beaten Bengals certainly fi t that description

    here today (wait until they host the Lions next Sunday!). While the Ponies

    are 12-4 ATS in this series, they are just 1-2 ATS when laying 7 or more points.

    And therein lies the complacency issue. Cincy’s inept offense is the worst

    in the loop, averaging a mere 13 PPG and 233 YPG on the season… and

    an even worse 11 PPG and 226 YPG without Carson Palmer behind center.

    Thanks, but no thanks. We’ll pass.

    Jacksonville over CHIGAGO by 3

    Another matchup of two teams that have been colossal underachievers this

    2008 season kicks off in the Windy City. Then again, Lovie Smith’s bunch

    has basically fl atlined ever since losing XLI, going 13-15 SU and 12-15-1 ATS.

    And if you’re into ‘Game Numbers’ then be sure to check out this week’s

    INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2! It fi ts nicely into Lovie’s 2-9-1 ATS mark in nondivision

    scrapes against opponents off back-to-back losses, including 0-5 ATS

    at home. Yes, we realize playing on the shore of Lake Michigan in December

    is not an ideal antidote for struggling teams from Florida but the Jags are

    17-7 ATS as road dogs under Jack Del Rio before Game Fourteen, including

    4-0 ATS against a foe off a loss. In addition to going 8-0 ATS when taking

    points off a road loss, they are also 10-3 SU and ATS in Game Thirteen in

    their franchise history, including 4-0 ATS as dogs. Too many good numbers

    to pass up here.

    TENNESSEE over Cleveland by 10

    Like a $29 suit, the Browns appear to be coming apart at the seams. And so

    it goes for Romeo Crennel in what is likely his last season on the sidelines

    in Cleveland. Losing his top two quarterbacks and a Pro Bowl tight end is

    tough enough. Now he’s forced to bring cohesion to a team that plays with

    as much chemistry as jailbirds on a prison break. Through it all the Browns

    have had their moments in the sun this season. Witness all four wins coming

    SU as underdogs, including the Giants’ only defeat this year. To their credit,

    Tennessee rebounded nicely off their initial loss of the season with a wireto-

    wire win over Detroit on Thanksgiving day. They do, however, close out

    the season with a pair of division games and a tilt against Pittsburgh for

    conference supremacy. Thus today’s game has the makings of a fl at spot. The

    Browns have won and covered the last three meetings in the series and are

    also 3-0 ATS on this fi eld. Take it if you must play it.

    DETROIT over Minnesota by 1

    Vikings leave the Hefty Pad with a much-needed Sunday night revenge win

    over the Bears in their back pocket. Their mission today, should they choose

    to accept it, would be to get into and out of the Motor City without busting a

    gut from excessive laughter. To that we say STOP RIGHT THERE. If there is any

    one game the listless Lions are going to win this season, it will likely be here

    against Minnesota today (stop LOL). Let’s examine the situation, if we may.

    For openers the Vikes have been outstatted in 3 of their last 4 road games. In

    addition, their YPG from Game Eight out has slipped 45 net YPG since their Bye

    Week. Small indicators, but indicators nonetheless. Then there’s this deal about

    teams playing three consecutive home games off back-to-back home losses.

    They’ve been a solid moneymaker over the years, including 7-0 SU and ATS the

    last seven games! Toss in Daunte Culpepper’s vengeance against the team that

    dissed him and the ole reliable ‘Ugly Pig’ factor and suddenly there’s a ray of

    hope for these pussycats. There’s no doubt they have long suffered from a bad

    case of the MMMM’s (Millen, Mornhinweg, Mariucci and Marinelli) but today

    could be the day for the cowardly Lions. After all, the Tin Man got his heart; the

    Scarecrow got a brain; and the Lion found his courage. All you need is a just a

    pinch of each to make this play. Follow the yellow brick road…

    BALTIMORE over Washington by 3

    The Ravens continue to fl y under the radar in the eyes of the public. The

    linesmakers, on the other hand, have grown quite fond of the Black Birds of

    late and as a result this game is priced accordingly. This neighborhood brawl

    pits two teams jockeying for playoff positioning with the underdog close to

    dire straits. After a 4-1 SU and ATS start to the season, Skins’ supporters have

    paid ‘the man’ 6 times in the last 7 games. On the other side of the coin,

    Baltimore has brought home the bacon 6 of the last 7 weeks. As a result this

    price has been heavily adjusted. Washington is at its best in games as a dog

    after scoring single digits in its last game, going 10-1 ATS. With the Ravens in

    the middle of a division sandwich and just 1-8 ATS off a double-digit SU and

    ATS win in games before facing the Steelers, the take is on.

    NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta by 7

    The Saints’ disturbing loss at Tampa puts them back into ‘must-win’ mode

    in this revenge rematch with the high-fl ying Falcons. And according to our

    database they’ve got the numbers to make their case. That’s because 6-6

    teams off one-loss exact are 12-3 SU and ATS in Game Thirteen of the season

    when seeking revenge, including 5-0 SU and ATS this decade. Looking inside

    the stats we fi nd a New Orleans squad that has outyarded ten of its twelve

    opponents this season. Granted, they’ve failed miserably as division home

    chalk over the years (2-12 ATS last 14) but they are 4-0 ATS with revenge

    in this series and they catch Atlanta off a big win at San Diego last Sunday.

    Look for the Dirty Birds to fall to 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS in games off back-toback

    SU and ATS wins. Bourbon Street!

    NY Jets over SAN FRANCISCO by 7

    The Flyboys jet out to the West Coast following last week’s debacle against

    the Broncos hoping life on the road continues its winning ways this Sunday.

    That’s where New York is 4-2 SU and ATS this season, including 3-0 SU and

    ATS in its last three travels. Meanwhile, the Niners return home off last

    week’s ‘inside-out’ win at Buffalo (won the game, 10-3, but were outgained

    350-195). Home has NOT been where the money is for Frisco this season:

    they’re just 2-4 SU and ATS. Given the fact that road teams off a SU home

    favorite loss that was preceded by back-to-back SU and ATS road victories

    are 8-3 ATS (5-0 ATS if off a spread loss of 14 or more points), look for Brett

    to butter the bread.

    BUFFALO over Miami by 4

    Following a 4-0 start, Buffalo is having a diffi cult time paying the bills lately

    as they enter today’s game on a 2-6 SU and ATS slide. This ailing squad is

    hoping the Rogers Centre in Toronto will prove to be just what the doctor

    ordered. At 6-6 on the season and off one-loss exact, they assume the same

    identical Game Thirteen critical role outlined in the Saints game above. To

    reiterate, these teams playing off one loss-exact and with revenge are 12-3

    SU and ATS, including 5-0 ATS this decade. The revenge comes from a 25-16

    loss in Miami, a loss that sent them into their current funk. The 7-5 Dolphins

    have been hanging on by a thread, going 0-4 ATS in their last four contests.

    No surprise here to see the Bills improve on their 7-1 ATS series mark north

    of the border today.

    DENVER over Kansas City by 7

    Both teams came up big last week, each pulling off upset wins on the road.

    The difference is one team will be prepping for the post-season, the other

    for the golf course. The Broncos took it on the chin, 33-19, earlier this year

    in Kansas City as 9-point favorites. They will lay a similar number here today

    knowing they are 1-10 SU and 0-11 ATS off a win against an opponent off a

    double-digit SU underdog win. Ouch. They are also 1-8 ATS in December off

    a double-digit ATS win. The Chiefs check in at 7-0 ATS on the road off a SU

    division underdog win. Denver’s dominance as a host in this series (7-1 ATS last

    8 games) quells thoughts of snapping the rubber band. Revenge be damned.

    ARIZONA over St. Louis by 11

    The Cardinals return to Glendale looking to get their playoff act back in

    order, hosting a reeling Rams unit they walloped, 34-13, earlier this season.

    St. Louis was without the services of their two main weapons, QB Marc

    Bulger and RB Steven Jackson. They’re back and that makes St. Louis

    formidable. The problem is the Rams’ nauseating 1-11 ATS mark in division

    games when they own a losing record. Then again, Arizona has lost the

    money 12 games in a row at home with a .500 or greater record in division

    games! Tough call.

    Dallas over PITTSBURGH by 1

    The Boys are back. Yes, Dallas is back and right in the NFC playoff hunt

    thanks to the return of QB Tony Romo. Is it a coincidence they are 3-0 SU and

    ATS since Romo re-entered the starting lineup three weeks ago? We think

    not. While Wade Phillips may not be Tom Landry, the fact of the matter is

    the Cowboys are 10-2 SU in regular season games following their Bye Week

    under his lead. The Steelers turned a tight game with New England into a

    2nd-half rout last week thanks to a strong defensive performance. Pay close

    attention to the line in this game as the Burgher Boys are 1-10 SU and ATS

    as favorites of less than 3 points when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS

    wins. Like we said, the Boys are back.

    New England over SEATTLE by 8

    There are times when a coach in a certain role is worth more than any current

    trend has to offer. Such is the case here today. We’ve outlined the fact that

    teams have struggled in games after taking on Mile Tomlin’s Steelers (now

    9-18 SU and 6-21 ATS). The overriding factor here is Bill Belichick, a coach

    that does not take well to losing. That’s evidenced by his 13-1 ATS mark on

    the road with the Patriots when playing off one-loss exact, including 9-0 SU

    and ATS the last nine games. With the Seahawks going through the motions

    and simply spinning their wheels, look for Belichick to improve to 14-2 SU

    and 15-1 ATS in his NFL head coaching career against NFC West Division

    opposition. Again.

    5* OVER HOUSTON / GB

    4* UNDER INDY / CLEVE

    3* UNDER BALTIMORE / WASH

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 2:41pm
21. 0 likes

    DIRECT FROM NEVADA

    WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH

    WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT ALABAMA/FLORIDA AND OTHER TITLE TILTS

    I've never seen anything like it!

    We've got the undefeated #1 team in the country...late in the season when they've had 12 games to establish their credentials...playing on a neutral field...GETTING 10 POINTS FROM AN OPPONENT!

    That's insane!

    But, given how the money has been coming in on the Florida Gators, and Florida keeps covering, it's clear to me that the sportsbooks will be rooting for Alabama this weekend even at that insane price.

    The sharps will be rooting for Alabama too. They bet the Tide at +10.5 on the opener, and at +10 after the first move. As I write this, the line is down to +9.5. I expect the public will come in hard Saturday on Florida, just like they've been doing all season. That will create a situation this weekend where the public bets at -9.5 and -10...with the sharps probably re-investing on Alabama whenever the line moves to double digits.

    Sportsbooks will be rooting for Alabama because public money outweighs sharp money in high profile games like this.

    Sportsbooks will be rooting REALLY hard that the game doesn't land on exactly 10!

    Personally, I think we'll see a great game. The head coaches are a push, with both Nick Saban and Urban Meyer proving they know how to win big games under the spotlight. Alabama has the better defense, but Florida has done a great job of stopping people too. Florida has the better quarterback with Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow. But, John Parker Wilson isn't a garbage can. He can manage a game and make plays.

    Should Florida be a 10-point favorite?

    I'd say no, particularly when you're talking about an undefeated #1 team getting that many points! But, Florida does win BIG when things are going well. They were -17 at Florida State last week in a monsoon, and still won by 30.

    I'll decide by game day whether it's the dog or pass for my clients and I. Today's article is about what the sharps are thinking in the championship games. They're definitely on Alabama at +10 or better. I haven't seen much action on the total yet.

    In the other conference championship games this weekend:

    MAC CHAMPIONSHIP: BALL STATE VS. BUFFALO (in Detroit Friday)

    Ball State opened at -13, then got bet up to -15. That crosses the key number of -14. Sharps know that favorites have a good history in championship games, and that the public wants to bet favorites who are still trying to make a statement. Ball State is mad that Utah and Boise State are getting all the publicity. So, there are sharps who figure this is going to be a blowout...and they want position to shoot a middle if the public drives the line even higher. This may not be a game the public gets too excited about because it's Friday Night instead of Saturday. It's not like the squares are going to bet Buffalo. So, the line will either stay where it is now or go up. Totals players hit the Over hard at 59 and 60. It's currently sitting at 61.5. This game is being played indoors, and could turn into quite a shootout.

    CUSA CHAMPIONSHIP: EAST CAROLINA AT TULSA

    All the conference championship matchups will be played Saturday except for that Ball State/Buffalo game. Note much interest in this one so far. The sharps don't pay too much attention to CUSA anyway except for some of the totals guys who like playing Overs with the spread offenses. They'll want to see what the weather is like in Tulsa on game day before investing in that at such a high number. Tulsa opened at -13 and the line has been at that or -12.5 all week. The total is 65.5 or 66. If the weather turns out to be great, I'd expect the totals guys to come in on the Over.

    ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: BOSTON COLLEGE VS. VIRGINIA TECH (in Tampa)

    This game opened at pick-em. I'm seeing pick-em or Boston College -1 right now. A lot will depend on the status of the Boston College quarterback. He watched last week's win over Maryland on the sidelines. Sharps rarely bet early in the week when there's a quarterback injury involved. My read is that the sharps will like Boston College if the quarterback is going to be anywhere near full strength. The low total of 39 hasn't inspired much action. This is a game sharps would normally play Under...but there's little margin for error at that kind of number.

    BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP: OKLAHOMA VS. MISSOURI (in Kansas City)

    There was very strong early action in this game on the favorite and the Under. Oklahoma opened at -14, but the line jumped all the way up to 16.5 very quickly. It probably would have gone to -17, but oddsmakers knew all the early sharp bettors would buy back Missouri at that price for a huge 14-17 middle opportunity. The public may come in on Oklahoma over the weekend because they love betting favorites who run up the score. So, sharps may still get that middle opportunity...possibly at an even higher line! Oddsmakers may decide to take a position on Missouri at +16.5 against the public and root VERY hard for a closer game. Tough call for the house when the action is this one-sided. What number would make the public bet on Missouri?

    The total opened at 84, and plummeted to 79. This is an outdoor game at night in Kansas City, which allows for weather possibilities. These two teams played on this field last year, with a lot of the same talent...and scoring was curtailed by both the weather, and Oklahoma's decision to sit on a big lead in the second half rather than keep piling up the points. I'm not a totals guy, but I was surprised when an 84 was sent out as the advisory for the opener. It could get there. But, this isn't a game where Oklahoma needs style points any more.

    Is there any value left on Oklahoma and Under at the current prices? History suggests that the value has been bet out once you see moves that big. You might be able to make a handicapping case for more. And, if the weather turns out to be bad, you'll definitely see more Under money coming in.

    

    posted by phantom

    Dec. 4 2008 6:43pm