MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON any college home dog with a
winning record if they won 8 or more
games last season and were favored
by 25 > points in their last game
versus a foe that is not undefeated.
Play On: HAWAII WARRIORS
ATS W-L Record Since 1980:14-2 (88%)
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
The Chicago Bears are 0-14 SU and ATS
in Game Thirteen when their win percentage
is less than .700 on the season
There have been a total of 31 college football same-season
rematches where one team beat the other in the fi rst game.
In 25 of the 31 rematches, the team who lost the fi rst game
either won the game or played closer in the rematch game!
Thursday, December 4th
RUTGERS over Louisville by 16
Did anyone catch that freight train tearing threw Piscataway? It’s Greg
Schiano’s Scarlet Knights and they’re taking no prisoners during an impressive
5-game winning streak. They have also covered 6 of 7 and show no signs
of slowing down this week, boasting a healthy 5-1 ATS mark in their Last
Home Game when playing with revenge. Schiano’s crew is also 7-0 against
the number with revenge versus a sub .500 foe. And thanks to Louisville’s
4-game losing skid that’s seen its defense shredded for 132 points, that’s
exactly where Kragthorpe’s Redbirds reside – under the water level. The
visitors desperately need a win to become bowl eligible but, at 6-6, that may
not even be enough to guarantee an invitation. With the series visitor 0-3
SU and ATS recently, we’ll be jumping on the bandwagon…err, freight train,
known as Rutgers. All aboard!
Friday, December 5th
MAC CHAM P IONSHI P
Ball St over Buffalo by 13
Can’t blame the Gonads if they don’t go ‘balls-out’ in tonight’s MAC
championship. After all, while a win does complete a perfect 13-0 campaign
for the 12th-ranked Cardinals, they’ll likely be relegated to a bowl game
south of January 1st. Turner Gill’s Bulls appear to be a dangerous dog in this
spot as our trusty database informs us that championship dogs of more than
6 points who score 21 or more points are a sterling 14-3 ATS – and the Bulls
have lit up the scoreboard for 21 or more in all but one game this season. Oh,
we should also inform you about this other interesting tidbit: teams in MAC
title games off 3 SU wins are just 1-5 SU and 0-4-2 ATS. Throw in the fact
that undefeated favorites of 17 or less points are 1-5 ATS in championship
games and it looks like the men of Muncie enter this showdown with the
proverbial noose around their necks. We’re not quite ready to run with the
Bulls so we’ll opt for a slow jog instead.
Saturday, December 6th
Navy over Army by 14
In a desperate bid to attract viewers to the annual battle for the
Commander-In-Chief trophy, CBS is actually promoting this weekend’s
Army-Navy game as “one of the greatest spectacles in all of sports.â€
Uh… can you run that by us one more time? Yes, we are a nation at war
and it may be considered disrespectful to downplay the signifi cance of
Saturday’s matchup but we honestly don’t know a single person without
a sizable wager on the outcome who’s going to watch this mind-numbing
scrum. However, we can tell you that our ticket will have ‘NAVY’ stamped
all over it in plain view. We’re aware that the QB with the impossibleto-
spell-or-pronounce last name may not be manning the helm for the
Middies but that’s not a problem. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs, who had looked
impressive coming off the bench in 3 straight games, got his fi rst start last
week against a tough Northern Illinois defense and rushed for 124 yards
en route to the Mids’ 16-0 win. He also directed his offense to scoring
drives on its fi rst two possessions while hogging the ball for more than
17 minutes in the fi rst half. Yes, we’re aware Navy has locked up a bid
to appear in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C. but that
won’t lessen their intensity here in a bid to secure the Academy’s 6th
straight CIC Trophy. Not only are the swabbies a super 10-1 as chalk with
rest, they’re an outstanding 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 5-plus years
versus Military opposition. No doubt that Army’s improved on both sides
of the ball this year; in fact, both teams have posted remarkably similar
numbers in yards gained and allowed. But the Middies are far less likely to
beat themselves, racking up 27 takeaways this season for a +14 turnover
margin compared to Army’s -12 TO embarrassment. Navy also converts a
higher percentage of 3rd-down situations, averages 1.1 yards more per
play than the Cadets and just so happens to catch Army marching straight
down the path to pointspread oblivion: the Black Knights are a woeful
1-17 SU and 2-16 ATS with rest versus an opponent with a win percentage
of > .333. With the Midshipmen outscoring the infantry by 16 PPG while
navigating a much tougher schedule, we think it’s time to go full speed
ahead with the Annapolis armada. Sail on, sail on, sailor…
UCONN over Pittsburgh by 4
Jeez, as much as we’ve ragged on Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt
this season the fact is Wanny’s Panthers are sitting at 8-3 and poised to lead
their Steel City fans to a bowl game for the fi rst time since 2005, the year
then-coach Walt Harris’ skein of 5 straight bowl appearances was snapped.
Pittsburgh has fueled its recent turnaround by winning the close games: 4
of the Black Cats’ 8 wins have come by 1, 5, 3 and 4 points. The visitors are
looking to settle the score for last season’s 34-14 drubbing, losing outright
to UConn as 7.5 point home chalk but Pitt may still be celebrating its second
straight win over West Virginia in their fabled ‘Backyard Brawl’ (Panthers just
2-5 ATS away after WVU). Regardless of the intangibles surrounding today’s
game, both defenses had better be prepared for some smashmouth football
– Connecticut’s Donald Brown and Pittsburgh’s LeSean “Shady†McCoy are
two of the nation’s most hard-nosed, relentless running backs. The Huskies
have cashed in 3 of the 4 most recent meetings and a UConn victory along
with some help from its friends could lead to a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the
conference with Pitt and West Virginia. This just in from our database: bowl
teams playing their Last Home Game with rest as dogs or favorites of less
than 4 points are a solid 23-12 ATS, including 9-3 off a loss. Look for Brown,
the NCAA’s leading rusher, to rebound from a sub-par outing against South
Florida and lead the Sled Dogs to win No. 8 on Senior Day.
WEST VIRGINIA over South Florida by 8
We’ve seen some unexpectedly disappointing performances this season by
decent teams – Tennessee, Fresno State and Purdue to name a few – but
few have slammed into the earth with a more resounding thud than the
battered Bulls of South Florida. With QB Matt Grothe back to direct a team
that had logged consecutive 9-4 bowl campaigns, the Bulls were expected
to stomp through the Big East china shop and emerge with a conference
championship. Adding to USF’s confi dence were a pair of upsets over
conference bear West Virginia – 21-13 as a 7-point home dog last year and
a 24-19 win here as 21-point mutts in ’06. But following a torrid 5-0 SU
start in ‘08, Grothe & company have stumbled badly in league play, going
2-4 SU and ATS. Even worse, if we toss out the 45 points the Bulls put on
lowly Syracuse, they’re averaging a mere 16.8 PPG against Big East foes.
That won’t get the job done against a bunch of double-revenging Hillbillies
eager to make superstar QB Pat White’s fi nal home game with West Virginia
one for the books (White is now college football’s all-time career rushing
QB). The Mounties will be doubly pissed, too, after blowing last week’s
game with Pitt (and a shot at the conference crown) in the closing seconds
at Heinz Field. It’s simple: we’d rather risk our loot on a WVU team that’s
4-0 SU at home off a previous home loss with White than ask the most
underachieving 7-4 squad in American to play with some heart. Lay it if
you play it.
CALIFORNIA over Washington by 31
With Alabama versus Florida starting about an hour after this one, my
guess is that Nielsen is going to report there was one viewer for this game
– and that was Ty Willingham’s aunt. We do think the Huskies will play hard
in Tyrone’s send-off but how do you back the only team in the FBS that’s
been outgained in EVERY contest this season – and lost the Crapple Bowl to
pathetic Washington State? When they are facing a Cal squad that appears
to have already gone into hibernation, that’s how! The Berkeley Bears have
dropped 2 of their last 3 contests (all three ITS) and are just 1-7 ATS their last
8 regular games with rest. These guys might be smarter than the average
bear, but Boo Boo, we ain’t layin’ 5 TDs with this sleep-walking bunch. Take
it if you absolutely must play it.
Usc over UCLA by 28
Remember those posters and print ads that Neuheisel and the Bruins
produced early in the season promoting UCLA football? We have a feeling
that the ones that didn’t end up as trash liners in the Memorial Coliseum
garbage cans are hanging in the USC locker room. With a trip to the Rose
Bowl on the line, Carroll really doesn’t need much ammo to win this one…
especially with a smothering “D†that has held 7 opponents to season low
yardage. To steal a line from one of our favorites, Maxwell Smart, “Would
you believe a kid on a bicycle with a BB gun?†could probably slow down a
Bruins offense that is averaging less than 20 PPG on the season. Both teams
have numbers to support their case. The Trojans boast a 5-1 ATS mark as
chalk off a non-conference SU win of 21 or more points while the Bruins
check in at 4-0 ATS in their Last Home Game – plus they’re 5-0 as HD’s of 7 or
more points. The big number looks just about right but it’s only moving in
one direction (upward) and that will likely keep us leaning to the dog.
ARIZONA over Arizona State by 11
Dennis Erickson’s crew needs this one to become bowl eligible but they
might not have enough fi repower to get it done. Don’t be fooled by last
week’s 34-9 “phony†win over UCLA as the Sun Devils were held to just 122
yards total offense and relied on their defense for a majority of those points.
However, we’re not “wild†about these Arizona Cats, either, as they bring a
2-12 ATS Last Home Game mark into this contest – and they’re also a moneyburning
3-17 ATS as home favorites of more than 3 points. An interesting
side note to this desert battle: the Sun Devils’ 5th-year SR QB Rudy Carpenter
has never lost to the Wildcats. We’re just going to watch this one to see if
Rudy can get one for the thumb. Pass.
Cincinnati over HAWAII by 3
It’s only fi tting that the Bearcats should be rewarded with a sun-splashed
Hawaiian vacation before heading off to their fi rst-ever BCS bowl game
in January. A win here will push Cincy’s SU record to 21-5 under 2nd-year
coaching phenom Brian Kelly but pocketing the ATS dough may not be
so easy. Teams off a home game playing their fi nal game of the season in
Hawaii are 5-10 SU and ATS when the Warriors own a win percentage of
.500 or greater. UH also takes protecting its home turf very seriously, going
10-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 20 or less points. Yes, Cincinnati is
4-0-1 off a SU Big East home win of 20 or more points and the ‘Cats are 14-1-
1 ATS off back-to-back home games – but none of those contests involved a
layover in Honolulu en route to a big bowl game on the mainland. With the
visitors possibly looking to rest key players and avoid injury, we’ll take a cue
from this week’s AWESOME ANGLE and side with the Grass Skirts today.
ADDED GAMES
TROY over Arkansas St by 11
Though the fi nal days of the college football season leave us with a tinge
of sadness, there’s always a silver lining to the dark cloud: we don’t have to
spend any more time analyzing games for a bunch of Sun Belt garbage scows
that shouldn’t even be on the board. Even so, we’ll roll up our sleeves, crank
up the database and take our medicine like big boys. The numbers do not
favor the hosts today. Troy is a miserable 1-7 ATS during the regular season
when playing with rest and they continue to fail in Last Home Game scenarios,
going 1-6 ATS of late (0-3 SUATS L3Y). The Red Wolves have covered 3 of the
last 4 get-togethers and they owe the Trojans big-time for last year’s 27-0
home shutout loss. Arky State also needs to beat Troy today to tie for the SBC
title but with the Alabama Trojans winning the stat wars in 10 of 11 games
this season, we don’t see that happening. You’re on your own here.
FLORIDA INT’L over W Kentucky by 3
If you live near the Miami area, there’ll be plenty of good seats available
for today’s merciful season-ender between these two underachievers. The
rusty 2-9 Hilltoppers haven’t played a game in three weeks and will drag
along an 0-3 ATS ball and chain as favorites or dogs of less than 10 points.
Having dropped to 4-7 after last week’s overtime loss to Florida Atlantic,
FIU has no shot at a winning season and will probably just go through the
motions before heading off to a South Beach keg party. The not-so-golden
Panthers have been favored by more than 6 points TWICE since coming on
board – and they lost the whole game both times. FIU also bears the added
stigma of being installed as home chalk off an OT loss, always a recipe for
pointspread disaster. Put a gun to our head and we’ll lean to the dog!
C - U SA CHAM P IONSH I P
TULSA over E Carolina by 16
Note to Hurricane head coach Todd Graham: add David Bailiff to your
Christmas shopping list. Were it not for Rice’s stirring upset over Houston,
Tulsa would not be playing this week. Instead, they’ll host East Division
winner East Carolina at H.A. Chapman Stadium for the C-USA cheese. And
like a storm a-brewing, the numbers are strong in the Hurricane’s favor.
Aside from owning a 3-0 SU and ATS series mark against the Pirates, Tulsa
should also like the fact that the home team in C-USA championship game
history is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Granted, ECU head coach Skip Holtz is 19-
5 ATS when taking points but his club is on a 2-8 ATS skid in its last ten games
(the Bandits managed an 0-6 ATS effort as a visitor this season). We also
note a disturbing 10-31-1 ATS mark as a dog for ECU in games in which they
surrender more than 38 points. A quick check of Graham’s dossier fi nds that
Tulsa has averaged 50 PPG at home under his direction. In fact, they’ve lit it
up to the tune of 60.5 PPG at Chapman Stadium this season. After taking it
on the chops at UCF in the title game last year in a 44-25 setback, we’ll issue
a Hurricane warning in Northeast Oklahoma this Saturday. Tulsa Tempest!
ACC CHAM P IONSH I P
Va Tech over Boston College by 3
Play it again, Sam. That could certainly be the theme surrounding the ACC
Championship game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa this Saturday.
These same two teams squared off in last year’s title tilt when the Hokies
captured a 30-16 win, a game in which they were outstatted 389-300.
Normally that would set the table for a revenge call to BC. The problem is
they already extracted their piece of fl esh in a 28-23 victory at Chestnut Hill
earlier this season. Thus it becomes advantage, Frank Beamer. And Beamer
is at his best when he’s looking to avenge a conference loss where he stands
20-4-2 ATS against a .500 or greater foe. That weaves nicely into the fact that
the team looking to settle a score is 2-0 SU and ATS in ACC championship
games. The Eagles closed strong, going 4-0 SU and ATS in their fi nal four
games despite losing starting QB Chris Crane to a broken collarbone two
games ago. The bottom line here is the ever-sagacious SMART BOX comes to
Tech’s aid and Beamer-ball is at its best in big games. As Ilsa would have said
to Beamer, “Play it again, Frank.â€
S EC CHAM P IONSHI P
Florida over Alabama by 7
We don’t know who will ultimately be matched up in this year’s BCS dogand-
pony show for the ‘national championship’ but if today’s game even
remotely lives up to expectations, it could blow the BCS Bowl right out of
the water. Both Alabama coach Nick Saban and Florida leader Urban Meyer
are two of the college game’s biggest success stories, molders of aggressive
and physically overpowering squads that fi nd ways to impose their will on
their opponents (each man has won a national title with an SEC program).
However, both coaches own such combative personalities that they’re reviled
by the media and fans alike for their win-at-all-cost philosophy and refusal
to make nice during press conferences and interviews. Big deal… Saban and
Meyer are outstanding evaluators of talent in addition to being top-notch
motivators and the winner of this mega-showdown will have an opportunity
to claim a 3rd consecutive national crown for the Southeastern Conference.
As you might expect, each squad brings some solid pointspread credentials
to the table today. Bama has cashed 4 straight in the series, the Tide has
rolled to a near-fl awless 10-0-1 ATS record as dogs of 6 or more points off BB
SU wins since 1990 and Saban owns a 19-8 ATS log playing off consecutive
SUATS wins. Also, undefeated teams in conference championship games are
9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS of late (strangely 0-5 ATS if they allow < 13.5 PPG). The
swamp-dwellers counter with an 8-0-1 ATS mark vs .850 > conference foes
from Game Six out, they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in SEC title games and head Gator
Meyer is 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS when tackling an undefeated opponent.
Alabama has earned its current position at the top of the BCS heap but this
year’s Florida team is clearly something special. Not only have the Gators
annihilated their last 8 adversaries by an average of 39.6 PPG, last week
they also became the fi rst team ever that was not undefeated to beat the
Florida State at home when the Seminoles were playing off a previous home
loss under Bobby Bowden (his teams had gone 23-0 SU under his tenure
since 1974). But even though Meyer’s dizzying array of offensive formations
makes the Alabama scheme look like it was taken straight from a bottle of
vanilla extract, the truth is both teams excel at running the ball and stopping
the run. That being the case, we just can’t lay doubles to the hungry, wellcoached
Crimson Tide. Gators chomp their way to the BCS title game but
Bama pockets the cash.
B I G 12 CHAM P IONSHI P
Oklahoma over Missouri by 16
Don’t mention this game to Longhorn fans: Texas will be watching the two
teams it beat this season play for the Big 12 championship and a possible
trip to the BCS title game. It’s just the latest in a sorry series of events that
will continue to plague college football until a playoff system is fi nally
approved. Just look at the opening round games if an 8-team playoff format
using the BCS ratings was in place right now – Alabama versus Penn State,
Oklahoma in a rematch with Texas Tech, Texas against undefeated Utah and
Florida versus USC. Wow! Instead, what many think we’ll get here is just
a glorifi ed scrimmage ending in yet another Sooner rout. A litany of ATS
numbers does little to challenge that expectation. Mizzou owns a lifeless
1-18 SU and 7-12 ATS mark in the last 19 meetings and the underdog has
cashed only 4 times in 12 tries in Big 12 championship games. Even worse for
the Tigers, they’re 16-73 ATS in games where they allow 35 or more points
– and Stoops’ troops have scored 35 or more in EVERY GAME this year. In
fact, OU’s powerful offense has scored an incredible 61 TDs in 71 tries in the
Red Zone this season and they may get to face Missouri without the Tigers’
all-world WR Jeremy Maclin, hurt last week in a loss to Kansas. But – and
it’s a really BIG but – despite all this overwhelming support in favor of the
Sooner juggernaut, they’ve still “got to play the game†and we think QB
Chase Daniel and company will not go quietly tonight. Coming off a lastminute
setback to the Jayhawks and burning to get even for last year’s 38-17
embarrassment by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, Mizzou could use
the Arrrowhead Stadium crowd support to major advantage. However, the
biggest reason we’re waffl ing here is the line: opening at 15.5 points, the
number has climbed to 18 and will probably go even higher before kickoff.
We’ll wait and see where things settle before pulling the trigger
but is a ? for this gm after suffering an ankle inj in UF’s 45-15 win over rival FSU LW. UF has rushed for 300+ yds in the L/3 gms. UF is allowing 102 ypg rush (3.3) and is #5 in our pass D rankings. #1 Bama is the only undefeated BCS team left and Saban has led his team to a 5 gm improvement over LY in just his 2nd yr at the helm. Bama is off a 36-0 win over rival Aub which ended Aub’s 6 gm Iron Bowl series win streak. UA has won gms with a strong rush attack avg 202 ypg (4.