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FOOTBALL WEEK 14

DIRECT FROM NEVADA With Linesmaker Nick Bogdanovich

THANKSGIVING WEEKEND IN NEVADA

Thanksgiving weekend is always a lot of fun at sportsbooks in Las Vegas and Reno. You’d think that sports gamblers might take a day or two away from betting to spend time with their families. No chance! Gamblers always find a way to make a bet!

People from other parts of the country have often asked me what Thanksgiving week is like out here. I thought this would be a great chance to paint the picture for you.

Thanksgiving Day starts out a little slow. Remember that the first NFL game kicks off in the morning local time. Business gradually picks up throughout the day as people come in to bet the second NFL game and the evening college game (this year there’s a prime time NFL game too). Who are they betting on? It’s the public. Favorites and Overs! Some get down early on the Friday college football as well.

Friday is much busier because there are plenty of day games in the colleges. It’s not quite as busy as a full Saturday. But, it’s much busier than a typical weekday by a mile. Sportsbooks love the traffic and the additional action. Casinos are hoping that some bettors stop off to play some blackjack or shoot craps. The guys running the books are hoping gamblers devote that money to parlay cards for the weekend. That’s where sportsbooks really clean up because the payoffs are so bad (and because the public is so bad at picking winners!).

Saturday and Sunday are normal football days…which means they’re very busy. This is particularly true if the public won on Thursday and Friday. All of that money comes back in action over the weekend. Sportsbook operators prefer to win every day. But, they’re not crushed if the public wins the first two days because the squares will just come back in and lose it all over the weekend. There was a Thanksgiving Weekend bloodbath not too long ago where the favorites just kept covering every day. Oddsmakers still get mad when they think about it.

I can tell you right now that sportsbooks are afraid of something like that happening again this year. All the favorites seem to be covering the big TV college games of late. Ohio State crushed Michigan last Saturday. That was followed by Penn State doing the same to Michigan State. Oklahoma over Texas Tech was even worse! Florida has been running up the score on people for weeks. Sportsbooks are ready for some big TV dogs to cover!

How does a discussion of Thanksgiving Weekend in Nevada apply to YOU?

Well, it would be great if some of you made the trip out to Las Vegas or Reno to spend the weekend! Business is down in the current economy so you can find some great deals. And, when was gas this cheap for people making the drive? I think all sports fans should try to experience the big events in Nevada at some point. Thanksgiving Weekend. New Year’s Day. The Super Bowl. March Madness. Hey, we serve turkey out here too!

In terms of picking winners over the holiday weekend, which I know all of you will be trying to do, it’s important that you remember the oddsmaker’s strategy for posting lines when public action is going to be heavy.

*The lines are stacked against the favorites! You’ll have to pay at least a 1-2 point tax on most chalk. The higher the line is, the higher the tax. You’d better make sure you LOVE a favorite before laying any points. Value is on the dogs as a general rule. That doesn’t mean the dogs will cover every game. And, some years, they don’t play well at all. Over the long haul, the value is with the underdogs.

*The lines are can be stacked even more against favorites if they’re in a “must win” situation in the BCS or NFL playoff races. This often happens on Thanksgiving because the league tries to schedule a contender in Detroit to make that game interesting, and Dallas is usually in the hunt. The only thing squares love more than betting a favorite is betting a favorite that “has” to win! You’re going to hear about a lot of “must win” situations this coming weekend, whether it’s about the BCS, bowl eligibility, securing a bowl invitation amongst the high number of teams who are already eligible, or the scrambled NFL playoff picture. Betting lines typically overreact to that theme.

*The lines are stacked against the Overs! This is particularly true in the NFL on Thanksgiving Day because the Lions play indoors (Detroit always hosts the early Thanksgiving game), and the Cowboys usually plays in decent weather (Dallas always hosts the second game). The public wants to root for offense. It’s very easy to do in a dome and in good weather. Oddsmakers know this and charge a penalty for the privilege. It seemed like the whole world was on the Over in that Texas Tech/Oklahoma prime time game last week. The whole world won! Don’t let that result trick you into asking for every big TV game this week to go Over its total.

*The lines will really be stacked against the Overs if there are big name quarterbacks on the field in the TV games. Somebody like Brett Favre of Peyton Manning visiting Detroit on Thanksgiving is worth a couple of points right there. Tony Romo would inspire Over money when he’s playing at his best. He’s been inconsistent this year. Colt McCoy of Texas may inspire Over money in the Thursday night college game against the very poor defense of Texas A&M. In the TV games the rest of the weekend, quarterback quality will trigger the totals. If you want to bet an Over, make sure you LOVE the Over.

As I mentioned several weeks ago in this space, it’s a myth that the oddsmakers are trying to “split the action” with their numbers. That almost never happens in the real world. They’re trying to make the public bet at a bad number, knowing that this will pay off big time over a large sampling of games.

In virtually every big TV game over the holiday weekend (or even lousy matchups that happen to be on TV!), sportsbooks will be overloaded from bets on the favorites and Overs…and will be rooting for underdogs and Unders. The action won’t be split. But, if the results split out 50/50 it’s the same thing, and the sportsbooks pocket the vigorish. Because betting at bad numbers often results in a losing record for the public, sportsbooks have a chance to do even better than just collecting the vigorish.

If you want to bet like a sharp, that means focusing your action on dogs and Unders unless you’ve got a very strong math grading or great information on a favorite. I liked TCU over Air Force last week for example as one of my service plays. They were 20-point favorites…but this is a team with a huge physical advantage that was likely to dominate their opponent. I thought 20 points was too low. That turned out to be right when TCU won 44-10. It took a VERY strong handicapping edge for me to consider the favorite here. I didn’t need a dominant edge at the point of attack for my underdog play on Ole Miss. They were the better team getting points. It was nice to score a 31-13 outright winner on the Rebels. You need to find rare monster edges to trust a favorite. It only takes relative equality for the underdog to make sense.

Does this mean I’ll be on nothing but Dogs and Unders on Thursday and all weekend? Well, I’ve got to play every game as it comes based on the information that’s available when it’s time to release BEST BETS to my clients. My employers at Cal-Neva are very likely to be rooting for the dogs and Unders every day. I’ll evaluate the motivation of the lesser teams. If Detroit or Seattle aren’t going to show up with any passion Thursday afternoon, they’re probably not worth serious consideration. It’s great to have an information pipeline for situations like this! All weekend I’ll be looking for underdogs with passion, while restricting favorite play to clear edges in physicality and production. See if you can make this a happier holiday for yourself and your loved ones by playing the TV games intelligently this year. There’s nothing worse than spoiling a family meal or a weekend trip to visit relatives by yelling at the TV because your bets are going down. Gambling degenerates do that. You shouldn’t.

phantom

posted by phantom

Nov. 25 2008 4:08pm
ncaaf nfl

10 replies

  1. 0 likes

    hard to find candy

    Avoided Embarrassment:

    Starting in Game 6, play any NFL team coming off a

    double-digit win on the road over a winless team.

    Pointspread Record Since 1990:

    19-6 (76%)

    This week’s application:

    Tampa Bay over New Orleans

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 25 2008 4:09pm
  2. 0 likes

    Gold Sheet CFL

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COLLEGE ANALYSIS

    KEY RELEASES

    CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 21 over Eastern Michigan (Friday)

    UCLA by 1 over Arizona State (Friday)

    OKLAHOMA by 19 over Oklahoma State

    GEORGIA TECH by 1 over Georgia

    ==================================================

    THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

    *TEXAS 51 - Texas A&M 13—Texas can’t wait for this double-revenge date

    vs. the defenseless Aggies (113th in defense). Longhorns need a big, fat win

    to lock up at least a piece of the Big XII South and to preserve their high status

    in the eyes of the BCS beholders. UT has so much liked the work of new

    defensive coordinator Will Muschamp that he’s been signed as the HC in

    waiting. Colt McCoy (30 TDs, only 7 ints.) played hurt vs. A&M two years ago;

    now he’s at the peak of his game. Unbalanced A&M offense (110th in rushing)

    is -9 in TOs. CABLE TV—ESPN

    (07-TEX. A&M 38-Texas 30...A.27-18 A.48/171 U.30/128 A.25/38/2/362 U.17/32/1/229 A.0 U.2)

    (07-TAM +6 38-30 06-Tam +13' 12-7 05-Texas -28 40-29...SR: Texas 73-36-5)

    =======================================

    FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 28

    West Virginia 26 - PITTSBURGH 17—Add a MAJOR revenge angle to

    latest edition of already-heated “Backyard Brawl,” as seething West Virginia

    was one win away from a berth in LY’s BCS championship game when rival Pitt

    pulled shocking upset at Morgantown. While Panthers frequently a feisty dog,

    thanks to their quick defense and running of star soph RB McCoy (1125 YR &

    18 TDs), most of the big-play potential in this game lies with visiting

    Mountaineers & sr. QB Pat White, a record-setting rusher who’s fired 8 TDP in

    last 4 games. REGIONAL TV—ABC

    (07-Pitt 13-W. VA. 9...P.15-12 P.52/158 W.41/104 W.9/16/0/79 P.10/19/2/67 P.0 W.3)

    (07-Pitt +28' 13-9 06-Wva -10' 45-27 05-WVA -14 45-13...SR: Pittsburgh 60-37-3)

    Ohio 31 - MIAMI-OHIO 27—Find it very difficult to lay points with Miami-

    Ohio side that’s lost 9 of last 10 as a favorite and has dropped last 4 games this

    season by an average of 24 ppg. The RedHawk defense last week allowed

    Toledo RB Morgan Williams 330 YR (!) and yielded 6 TDs on the ground, and

    the Miami offense is one of the least productive in the country (111th in scoring).

    Meanwhile, Ohio U. showed it still has a pulse in rousing 49-42 win against

    Akron behind QB Boo Jackson’s 5 TD passes. Both teams will play with pride

    in rivalry match, but Bobcats (despite lengthy injury list) own second-best

    defense in the MAC. CABLE TV—ESPNU

    (07-OHIO 38-Miami 29...M.28-16 M.41/132 O.38/81 M.22/45/2/247 O.9/18/0/118 O.1 M.0)

    (07-OHIO -1 38-29 06-Ohio -3 34-24 05-Miami -9 38-7...SR: Miami-Ohio 51-31-2)

    MISSISSIPPI 30 - Mississippi State 10—While both squads snapped

    prolonged series losing streaks week ago, prefer soaring Ole Miss, which has

    inside track to 2nd-place SEC West finish and possible Cotton Bowl bid. MSU’s

    bread-and-butter ground attack (RB Dixon had career high 179 YR vs.

    Arkansas) exploited SEC’s worst rush defense week ago. But previouslymoribund

    Bulldog offense goes back into hibernation vs. Rebels stout front 7

    (meager 97 ypg rushing; 2.9 ypc; LSU just 39 YR). Ole Miss’ defense-reading

    QB Snead (19 TDP; 309 YP vs. LSU) cracks (no pun intended) Bulldog 2ndary

    (only 7 ints.) in “Egg Bowl.” CABLE TV—ESPNU

    (07-MISS. ST. 17-Miss. 14...U.21-10 U.50/204 S.25/81 S.15/36/1/192 U.10/30/1/115 S.1 U.1)

    (07-MSU -6 17-14 06-MISS. -3 20-17 05-MSU +2 35-14...SR: Mississippi 59-39-6)

    Akron 42 - TEMPLE 38—A pair of disintegrating defenses face off, as

    Akron has allowed 37 ppg and has gone “over” last 6, while Temple has yielded

    42 ppg in last 3 (all “over”). Owl QB Adam DiMichele had 370 YP & threw for 6

    TDs last week against E. Michigan, and he’s thrown for 13 scores with just 1 int.

    since returning from injury. However, have to be impressed by Akron offensive

    combo of QB Chris Jaquemain (20 TDP, ten 200-yard passing games in ‘08)

    and RB Dennis Kennedy (175 ypg rushing & 14 TDs last 5 games). Revengeseeking

    Zips capable of mild upset.

    (07-Temple 24-AKRON 20...T.23-15 A.37/152 T.39/136 T.23/34/2/242 A.12/21/2/145 T.0 A.0)

    (07-Temple +11' 24-20...SR: Temple 10-7)

    Utep 35 - EAST CAROLINA 33—Injury-ravaged East Carolina has gone from

    solid earner to vexing money-burner in 2008, as Pirates have dropped 8 of their last

    9 spread decisions. UTEP needs one more win to be eligible for postseason

    bid. Red-hot QB Vittatoe has fired 29 TDP vs. just 3 ints. in last 8 games,

    and Miners 11-4-1 their last 16 as visiting dog for wily old mentor Mike Price.

    (07-Ecu 45-UTEP 42 (OT)...U.31-24 E.32/208 U.37/133 U.40/57/1/456 E.19/34/4/299 E.0 U.2)

    (07-East Carolina +3 45-42 (OT)...SR: East Carolina 1-0)

    ***Central Michigan 41 - EASTERN MICHIGAN 20—Despite

    disappointing result against Ball State, expect a top quality effort from classy

    Central Michigan and do-everything QB Dan LeFevour. Chippewas will be out

    to avenge last season’s upset loss to EMU, and a convincing victory would go

    a long way to securing a bowl bid. LeFevour’s 420 yds. of total offense against

    Ball State was the MAC MVP’s best production of the season and 4th-best of his

    career. CMU owns an extremely dangerous weapon in WR Antonio Brown (75

    catches; 2nd in nation in punt returns), and Eastern is 8-16 last 24 vs. spread.

    (07-E. Mich. 48-C. MICH. 45...E.27-25 C.25/231 E.49/214 C.26/37/1/246 E.26/36/1/227 E.0 C.1)

    (07-Emu +14 48-45 06-Cmu -4' 24-17 (OT) 05-Emu +5' 23-20 (OT)...SR: CMU 53-26-6)

    BUFFALO 41 - Kent State 27—Buffalo has clinched its spot in the MAC

    Championship game next Friday night in Detroit, but still favor Turner Gill’s

    Bulls. Buffalo has won 6 straight, covering last 4, and QB Drew Willy has 9 TD

    passes and just 1 int. in the last 5. Bull RB Starks (121 ypg rushing) didn’t get

    his usual amount of touches, as Buffalo had to rally from a 21-0 deficit at

    Bowling Green, but Starks still managed a pair of TDs. Kent (3-7 vs. spread)

    has yielded 42 ppg in last 3, and shoddy defending is a major factor in Golden

    Flashes going “over” 8-2 in ’08. (Bulls “over” 8-3.)

    (07-Buf. 30-KENT ST. 23 (OT)...21-21 K.49/217 B.26/49 B.35/45/0/335 K.12/22/0/184 B.0 K.0)

    (07-Buf. +1' 30-23 (OT) 06-BUF. +15' 41-14 05-Buf. +7 10-6...SR: EVEN 8-8)

    Lsu 24 - ARKANSAS 23—Arkansas eliminated from bowl contention

    following come-from-ahead 31-28 loss at Mississippi State, but still prefer to

    buck struggling, overrated LSU, a bankroll-depleting 3-15-1 vs. spread last 19

    reg.-season games. Hogs’ battle-tested sr. QB C. Dick (expected to return after

    missing last week with concussion) figures to outperform Tigers green, true

    frosh QB Jefferson, who’ll probably get the nod for injured Lee (see Special

    Ticker). LSU 2ndary waaayyy down from LY’s ball-hawking unit (21 ints. LY;

    SEC-worst 6 TY), and Tigers red-zone defense dead last in conference.

    Bounce-back game for Arkansas’ versatile RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 141 allpurpose

    yds. pg) after season-low 60 YR last week. (at Little Rock, AR) TV—CBS

    (07-Ark. 50-LSU 48 (OT)...L.25-21 A.53/385 L.48/204 L.22/47/0/209 A.13/24/0/128 A.1 L.0)

    (07-Ark. +13 50-48 (OT) 06-Lsu -1' 31-26 at LR 05-LSU -17 19-17...SR: LSU 34-18-2)

    TOLEDO 35 - Bowling Green 31—Toledo rallied for one of its best efforts

    of the season in crushing Miami-Ohio 42-14 last week, as frosh RB Morgan

    Williams exploded for 330 YR and 3 scores. That game, coincidentally, was the

    first home contest since well-liked Rocket HC Tom Amstutz announced he’d

    resign at season’s end. Bowling Green can become bowl-eligible with a win, but

    that might not mean anything considering Falcons are 5th or 6th-best in a

    conference that’s slotted for no more than 3 or 4 bowl bids. BG collapse last

    week at home against Buffalo has to take something out of Falcs, and expect

    an emotional effort from Rockets in “send-off” game for Toledo Tom.

    (07-B. GREEN 37-Toledo 10...B.27-18 B.44/201 T.28/66 T.21/40/3/256 B.22/36/0/242 B.1 T.1)

    (07-BGU -6' 37-10 06-TOL. -6' 31-21 05-Tol. +6' 44-41 (OT)...SR: Bowling Green 37-31-4)

    NEBRASKA 38 - Colorado 16—The defenseless, chemistry-poor

    Cornhuskers of ’07 gave up a humiliating 65 points LY in Boulder, with Bill

    Callahan fired the next day. Now, the much-tougher, defensive-minded Bo Pelini

    is drawing praise for reviving NU pride. After a long wait, Pelini has re-established

    the Husker Blackshirt tradition for defensive standouts, and the team

    responded next game by allowing only 247 yards at Kansas State, boosting

    sack total to 9 last two games. CU (5-6) fighting for a bowl shot, but depleted

    offense especially challenged on the road (Buffs 0-4 vs. spread as a visitor TY).

    REG TV—ABC

    (07-COLO. 65-Neb. 51...N.28-26 C.52/277 N.20/126 N.31/58/3/484 C.17/29/0/241 C.0 N.0)

    (07-COLO. -4 65-51 06-NEB. -14 37-14 05-Neb. +16 30-3...SR: Nebraska 46-18-2)

    *BOISE STATE 43 - Fresno State 17—It’s certainly not Boise’s fault this

    matchup isn’t the WAC showdown many anticipated in early September. And

    Fresno hasn’t offered much better value to its backers than the Dow Jones,

    dropping 9 of its last 10 spread decisions. But would be wary of pointspread

    inflation, as Bulldogs did play best overall game in two months last Friday at San

    Jose, and Broncos have covered just 1 of 4 as blue carpet chalk TY. TV—ESPN2

    (07-Boise St. 34-FRES. ST. 21...B.21-15 B.43/282 F.26/89 F.21/39/1/263 B.18/29/0/158 B.0 F.0)

    (07-Bsu -3 34-21 06-BSU -22' 45-21 05-FSU -9 27-7...SR: Boise State 6-4)

    ***Ucla 24 - ARIZONA STATE 23—Not sure about rumors that these

    two have contacted Tony Robbins to convince respective troops that a bowl

    invitation could still be in the cards (both need wins in last two to get eligible).

    But a bit more reluctant to lay points with constantly-misfiring ASU bunch that

    has lacked continuity on OL to establish infantry and thus take pressure off

    banged-up QB Carpenter. Norm Chow’s jerry-rigged UCLA “O” finally gaining

    some traction with its own ground game. CABLE TV—ESPN2

    (07-Ariz. St. 24-UCLA 20...A.20-14 A.45/152 U.33/119 A.16/31/0/200 U.14/29/1/181 A.2 U.1)

    (07-Asu -7 24-20 06-Ucla +5 24-12 05-UCLA -3' 45-35...SR: UCLA 15-8-1)

    =================================

    SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 29

    NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27 - Miami-Florida 19—Eager to support

    howling Wolfpack, who have covered 8 of their last 9. Not just that, but recent

    3-game win streak has N.C. State just one victory from bowl eligibility. Count on

    composed RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (14 TDP & no ints. in his last 7 games!) to

    fire host past a talented but young Miami squad that’s still a work in progress.

    (07-N. Car. St. 19-MIAMI 16 (OT)...16-16 M.60/314 N.35/110 N.19/40/0/207 M.1/14/3/84 N.0 M.0)

    (07-North Carolina State +11 19-16 (OT)...SR: Miami-Florida 4-2)

    *Vanderbilt 16 - WAKE FOREST 14—Offensively, there are not many

    discernible edges in this matchup, as both sputtering attacks rank among the

    most feckless in the country. Lean to taking points with visiting Vandy, which

    has been a little more productive on ground than Wake. No surprise if ballhawking

    Deacons (nation-leading 32 “takeaways”) force enough turnovers to

    prevail, however. CABLE TV—ESPNU

    (07-W. For. 31-VANDY 17...V.20-16 W.43/150 V.28/16 V.32/58/2/333 W.21/31/1/146 W.2 V.3)

    (07-Wfu -1 31-17 05-Vandy +8' 24-20...SR: Vanderbilt 7-4)

    BOSTON COLLEGE 21 - Maryland 20—Eagles can clinch trip to ACC title

    game with a victory, and swarming BC defense (31 takeaways, only 270 ypg) is

    most dominant platoon on field. But with host down to its backup QB (see

    Special Ticker), might be good spot to grab points with flaky Maryland squad

    that’s won straight up in its last 6 games vs. ranked foes!

    (07-MARY. 42-Bos. Col. 35...B.27-20 M.40/135 B.27/45 B.33/56/2/421 M.21/27/0/337 M.0 B.0)

    (07-MARY. +6' 42-35 06-BC -7' 38-16 05-Bc -2 31-16...SR: Boston College 3-2)

    VIRGINIA TECH 19 - Virginia 17—A Virginia Tech win sends Hokies to

    ACC championship game for 3rd time in last 4 seasons, while Cavaliers need

    a victory just to be eligible for minor bowl bid. Tech has dominated rivalry in

    recent seasons, capturing 8 of last 9 meetings (7-2 vs. spread). Still, not a bad

    fundamental matchup for UVa defense, which has the veteran, good-sized LBs

    (3 senior starters) necessary to contain a run-oriented Hokie attack that rarely

    does substantial damage in air.

    (07-Va. Tech 33-VA. 21...T.20-15 T.46/131 U.36/97 T.17/26/1/299 U.17/28/1/144 T.1 U.1)

    (07-Tech -3' 33-21 06-TECH -17 17-0 05-Tech -7 52-14...SR: Virginia Tech 47-37-5)

    North Carolina 26 - DUKE 23—Even though starting QB Lewis (check

    status; sat out last week with sore foot) among the key injuries Duke has

    absorbed over last month, highly-regarded new HC Cutcliffe still has Blue

    Devils battling hard down stretch. That’s probably enough reason to not lay

    substantial points with fading North Carolina, which appears to have peaked a

    little too early.

    (07-N. CAR. 20-Duke 14 (OT)...D.23-14 N.32/174 D.48/145 D.21/31/0/215 N.11/24/2/75 N.0 D.1)

    (07-UNC -14 20-14 (OT) 06-Unc -7 45-44 05-UNC -21' 24-21...SR: North Carolina 55-35-4)

    CINCINNATI 41 - Syracuse 10—Credit ‘Cuse for giving lame-duck HC Greg

    Robinson a feel-good win on his way out the door. But vulnerable Orange could

    be ripe for plucking after last week’s satisfying victory at Notre Dame, especially

    with defensively-staunch Cincinnati trying to wrap up Big East title. Bearcats (7-

    2 last 9 as home chalk) likely to stretch margin late if hungry backup QB sr.

    Grutza gets some snaps.

    (07-Cincy 52-SYR. 31...C.24-20 C.32/113 S.34/M15 C.29/43/0/431 S.31/51/0/428 C.1 S.1)

    (07-Cincy -20' 52-31 06-CINCY -6' 17-3 05-Cincy +5' 22-16...SR: EVEN 4-4)

    TEXAS TECH 48 - Baylor 21—Despite their depressing blowout last week

    in Norman, Red Raiders must win to keep their slight title hopes alive.

    Fortunately for TT, Baylor doesn’t have the quality pass rushers Oklahoma did,

    so Bears likely to find themselves in a scoring contest with Harrell & Co.

    Raiders have won 8 straight in series, covering 7. While Baylor greatly

    improved under Art Briles, dual-threat frosh QB Griffin has completed only 48%

    on road for only 144 ypg. Raider OL allowed only 5 sacks TY prior to OU game.

    (07-Tex. Tech 38-BAY. 7...T.29-21 B.35/91 T.17/73 T.44/59/0/490 B.25/47/1/191 T.1 B.1)

    (07-Tech -20 38-7 06-TECH -17 55-21 05-Tech -12 28-0...SR: Tex. Tech 33-32-1)

    MEMPHIS 42 - Tulane 20—Absolutely zero interest in backing shorthanded

    Tulane side that’s dropped its last 7 games by an average score of 41-

    15. Memphis’ previously-injured top QB Arkelon Hall (15 of 35; 42 YR) knocked

    some of the rust off in last week’s home loss to UCF, and Tigers need 1 more

    win to be bowl eligible. Lay it.

    (07-Memphis 28-TULANE 27...T.25-17 T.58/350 M.25/59 M.27/40/1/379 T.8/16/1/105 M.1 T.1)

    (07-Memphis +2 28-27...SR: Memphis 15-11-1)

    Nevada 36 - LOUISIANA TECH 27—Bowl implications, as available spots

    for WAC could get tight if Boise doesn’t land BCS at-large berth. Preference,

    then, for the superior weaponry of Chris Ault’s Nevada Pistol, which leads

    nation in rushing and owns the component most likely to alter outcome, longlegged

    QB Kaepernick. Fundamentals also not bad for Wolf Pack “D” that’s

    adept at stuffing run, especially with dinking Tech QB Jenkins yet to

    demonstrate consistent downfield accuracy.

    (07-NEVADA 49-La. Tech 10...N.29-12 N.55/237 L.33/55 N.18/29/0/404 L.12/29/0/173 N.1 L.3)

    (07-NEVADA -7' 49-10 06-Nevada -18 42-0 05-NEVADA -2' 37-27...SR: EVEN 4-4)

    RICE 44 - Houston 42—The college football equivalent of the long ago Ron

    Lyle-George Foreman heavyweight slugfest? Perhaps, considering the 746

    yards Houston piled on crosstown rival Rice’s “D” in ‘07, not to mention the 104

    total points scored in LY’s meeting. Owls’ offensive competence, however,

    makes any available points look enticing, especially with record-breaking QB

    Clement (now C-USA’s all-time TD leader) making last home appearance, and

    Coug “D” susceptible due to its own leaks.

    (07-HOU. 56-Rice 48...H.28-23 H.45/274 R.34/86 H.26/36/2/474 R.24/44/1/355 H.3 R.1)

    (07-HOU. -22' 56-48 06-Hou. -14' 31-30 05-HOU. -15' 35-18...SR: Houston 25-9)

    UTAH STATE 41 - New Mexico State 30—Will USU circle the wagons for

    lame-duck HC Brent Guy, who got the Ty Willingham-Phil Fulmer-Greg Robinson

    news last week from AD Scott Barnes? And is Hal Mumme about to meet the same

    fate at NMSU? While pondering those intangibles, note Utags (3-0-1 vs. line last

    4) displaying a bit more bite down stretch, thanks to multi-dimensional QB Borel,

    and Guy’s troops covered last 4 at Romney Stadium.

    (07-Utah St. 35-NMSU 17...N.23-19 U.45/166 N.22/88 N.42/58/2/367 U.14/20/0/189 U.1 N.0)

    (07-Usu +8 35-17 06-Nms -6' 42-20 05-Usu -2' 24-21...SR: Utah State 26-6)

    Southern Miss 37 - SMU 16—C-USA sources report SMU’s June Jones

    wrote off ‘08 campaign at midseason, instead beginning full-bore rebuilding

    mode while taking a long look at numerous frosh. Meanwhile, USM counterpart

    Fedora has seen his Golden Eagles make unlikely late-season push for bowl

    eligibility, as formerly-maligned “D” has allowed mere 7.7 ppg in recent 3-game

    win streak. Ponies’ Red Gun can only dream of Golden Eagles’ balance (RB

    Fletcher 1176 YR, QB Davis 2640 YP).

    (07-S. MISS 28-Smu 7...Me.26-25 Mi.40/209 Me.38/170 Mi.18/27/1/206 Me.19/31/2/191 Mi.0 Me.2)

    (07-SOUTHERN MISS -9 28-7...SR: Southern Miss 1-0)

    Missouri 40 - Kansas 22—Selection complicated by fact Mizzou has

    already clinched the South. But the bitter nature of this rivalry still likely to

    inspire the best from the Tigers. MU’s defense (23 ppg) has improved, but not

    as much as Tiger coaches predicted. Still, KU’s ground game is inconsistent,

    and Jayhawk defense (29 ppg) misses d.c. Bill Young (now at Miami), not to

    mention the tight coverage of CB Aqib Talib (NFL) and much of a pass rush. (at

    Kansas City, MO)

    (07-Mo. 36-Kansas 28...M.29-22 M.43/151 K.22/42 M.41/50/0/368 K.28/49/2/349 M.0 K.0)

    (07-Mo. +2 36-28 at KC 06-MO. -7' 42-17 05-KAN. +5 13-3...SR: Missouri 54-53-9)

    ***Oklahoma 45 - OKLAHOMA STATE 26—OU scoring machine visits

    Stillwater, where Boone Pickens’ bucks, Mike Gundy’s recruiting, Zac

    Robinson’s decision-making, and Dez Bryant’s big plays (16 TDC) have

    upgraded the OSU program to such a level (9-2 SU, 8-2 vs. spread TY) that it

    is a perceived threat to Sooners’ BCS dreams. The problem is the still-building

    Cowboy defense can’t cope with the improving (!) OU no-huddle offense. With

    DeMarco Murray now cutting freely, many future NFL players in its OL, and its

    near faultless pocket passer (Sam Bradford 42 TDs, 6 ints.; rarely played an

    entire game TY), Sooner offense will run up another big number against rival

    Cowboys. TV—ABC

    (07-OKLA. 49-Okla. St. 17...U.27-17 U.56/307 S.39/195 U.13/17/1/180 S.9/23/0/104 U.0 S.1)

    (07-OKLA. -13' 49-17 06-Okla. -5' 27-21 05-OKLA. -19' 42-14...SR: Oklahoma 79-15-7)

    ***Georgia Tech 24 - GEORGIA 23—Since highly-combative GT has

    played just one bad Q of football all season (outscored 21-7 in 4th Q at UNC;

    other two losses by 3 & 7 pts.), compelled to “take” with jacked-up Yellow

    Jackets, eager to snap aggravating 7-game series losing streak. UGA’s QB

    Stafford makes few downfield plays vs. athletic Tech stop unit (19 ppg) that has

    picked off 14 passes and applies steady DL pressure. Yellow Jackets nearly

    had three 100-yd. rushers in dominating 41-23 victory vs. Miami (most rushing

    yds. Hurricanes allowed since 1944!). And GT’s wiley 1st-year HC Paul Johnson

    has thrived in road dog role (13-3 since ‘03). Upset possible! TV—CBS

    (07-Ga. 31-GA. TECH 17...T.22-20 U.39/218 T.39/136 U.14/29/0/214 T.12/32/2/179 U.1 T.1)

    (07-Uga -3' 31-17 06-UGA -2' 15-12 05-Uga -4 14-7...SR: Georgia 59-36-5)

    Tulsa 43 - MARSHALL 25—Difficult to imagine Marshall rallying at this

    stage, as mistake-filled 3-game losing streak has scuttled any bowl hopes,

    putting HC Snyder’s already-tenuous job status in further jeopardy. Meanwhile,

    blowout win over Tulane suggests all well again at Tulsa after recent losing

    streak ended longshot UT’s BCS hopes. Golden Hurricane QB David

    Johnson’s arm well-rested (only 13 passes last week) after RB Tarrion Adams’

    323 YR keyed 489-yard (!) ground assault vs. Green Wave.

    (07-TULSA 38-Marshall 31...T.31-20 T.42/193 M.38/184 T.24/39/0/385 M.21/37/0/260 T.1 M.0)

    (07-TULSA -14 38-31...SR: Tulsa 1-0)

    ALABAMA 30 - Auburn 10—While the old cliche goes, “You can throw out

    the records when these two meet,” we prefer to side with top-ranked Bama’s

    fundamental edges in this “Iron Bowl” matchup. Auburn’s pedestrian, identityless

    attack (13 ppg vs. SEC foes), led by unfinished soph QB Burns, unlikely to

    regularly move pigskin vs. ferocious Tide defense (12.5 ppg, 2.8 ypc). On other

    side, Bama’s steady, mistake-free sr. QB Wilson (59%, just 5 ints.), productive

    RBs Coffee (6.1 ypc, 8 TDs) & Ingram (5.5 ypc, 9 TDs) and frosh phenom WR

    J. Jones (43 grabs, 16-yd. avg.) make muchos more big plays vs. overtaxed

    Tiger defense. Bama’s clever mentor Saban perfect 3-0 vs. spread in revenge

    games TY, and Bama Nation considers this its No. 1 payback after six straight

    losses to arch-rival! TV—CBS

    (07-AUB. 17-Ala. 10...Au.17-15 Au.41/165 Al.36/112 Au.12/22/1/117 Al.12/26/1/113 Au.0 Al.0)

    (07-AUB. -6 17-10 06-Aub. -3 22-15 05-AUB. -7 28-18...SR: Alabama 38-33-1)

    Florida 43 - FLORIDA STATE 20—Points may appear inviting, if only

    because it’s been decades since Florida State has been this big an underdog

    at Tallahassee. Current reality, however, finds Florida at 9-1 vs. spread TY and

    holding substantial fundamental edges all over the field against Seminoles.

    With trip to BCS championship game just a couple of wins away, Gator juggernaut

    (outscored last 7 foes 369-82!) keeps on rolling against outgunned FSU.

    (07-FLA. 45-Fla. St. 12...U.29-17 U.38/279 S.25/99 U.19/28/0/262 S.20/37/0/188 U.0 S.0)

    (07-FLA. -14 45-12 06-Fla. -9 21-14 05-FLA. -4 34-7...SR: Florida 31-19-2)

    *Kentucky 17 - TENNESSEE 16—Though UT has remained “intoxicated”

    after winning the former “Beer Barrel” rivalry for 23 straight years, believe

    rested, bowl-eligible UK able to finally take a swig vs. beatable Vols, who

    avoided school-worst 8 losses in unimpressive 20-10 win at Vandy (UT had just

    243 yds., scored TD on int. return). If Wildcats fast-emerging, mobile, frosh QB

    Cobb (159 YR last two games) keeps mistakes to a minimum vs. tenacious Vol

    defense, UK ekes out win vs. UT sans an SEC-caliber triggerman (21 YP vs.

    ‘Dores). Swan song for Fulmer, who is just 1-11-1 as SEC chalk in Knoxville

    since ‘04. CABLE TV—ESPN2

    (07-Tenn. 52-KY. 50 (OT)...K.37-24 K.48/134 T.37/123 K.39/62/2/430 T.28/45/3/397 T.0 K.1)

    (07-Tenn. +2' 52-50 (OT) 06-TENN. -20' 17-12 05-Tenn. -9 27-8...SR: Tennessee 71-23-9)

    UCF 20 - Uab 17—Since UAB defense finally stopped blowing assignments

    in 17-13 loss vs. ECU (Blazers allowed just 278 yds. & had 5 takeaways), lean

    to Blazers, with the superior QB in dual-threat Webb. Though UCF’s previouslystruggling

    frosh QB Calabrese (22 for 59 last 3 weeks) tossed 2 TDP at

    Memphis, Knights won’t easily pull away from UAB squad 5-2 last 7 as an

    underdog. UCF’s containable attack (only 18 ppg TY; 38 LY) has nobody

    resembling departed RB K. Smith (320 YR in ‘07 meeting).

    (07-Ucf 45-UAB 31...C.24-22 C.52/402 A.35/168 A.20/41/2/175 C.12/20/1/104 C.0 A.0)

    (07-Ucf -20' 45-31 06-UCF -3 31-22 05-Ucf +7' 27-21...SR: UCF 5-0)

    *OREGON STATE 31 - Oregon 23—Even as key injuries mount (check

    status of QB Moevao & frosh RB sensation Quizz Rodgers) with first Rose Bowl

    trip since Tommy Prothro’s 1964 squad within its grasp, don’t think OSU will slip

    up now. Hot Beavs (won last 6 SU, 8-1 vs. spread last 9) have proven a bit more

    resilient than Civil War rival Oregon, as OSU doesn’t lose much with QB

    Canfield or Quizz’ brother James assuming larger offensive roles. Mike

    Bellotti’s QBs have tended to be a bit erratic, and quick-footed Beav “D” can slow

    Ducks potent spread just enough to get to Pasadena.

    (07-Ore. St. 38-ORE. 31 (OT)...S.23-21 S.44/214 U.57/195 S.20/37/1/245 U.13/28/1/144 S.2 U.0)

    (07-Osu +1 38-31 (OT) 06-OSU -3 30-28 05-ORE. -13' 56-14...SR: Oregon 55-46-10)

    *South Carolina 17 - CLEMSON 14—Palmetto State scouts insist Clemson

    HC Tommy Bowden would have been fired before TY if not for his dominance of

    despised rival USC. Tigers going for their 6th win in last 7 meetings against the

    Cocks, which would make Clemson bowl eligible (and perhaps earn interim mentor

    Swinney the regular job). Sub-par Tiger OL figures to have its hands full with

    tenacious USC front 7, however, and last 3 in series decided by total of just 9 points!

    (07-Clem. 23-S. CAR. 21...C.26-17 C.46/214 S.21/80 S.18/31/2/284 C.28/39/1/229 C.0 S.1)

    (07-Clem. -3 23-21 06-Usc +5' 31-28 05-Clem. -3 13-9...SR: Clemson 64-37-2)

    *SOUTHERN CAL 36 - Notre Dame 3—Charlie Weis’ admonishments to his

    roster in wake of Syracuse debacle can’t alter the one undeniable fact about this

    year’s Notre Dame—the Irish just aren’t that good. And though we still have

    some reservations about QB Sanchez and the sometimes-erratic SC attack,

    expect Trojan “O” to have plenty of opportunities after the many three-and-outs Pete

    Carroll’s voracious defense forces vs. QB Clausen & misfiring Irish. TV—ABC

    (07-S. Cal 38-N. DAME 0...S.24-10 S.36/227 N.30/48 S.21/38/0/235 N.17/33/1/117 S.1 N.2)

    (07-Usc -17' 38-0 06-USC -8' 44-24 05-Usc -12 34-31...SR: Notre Dame 42-32-5)

    *HAWAII 48 - Washington State 16—Since Wazzu might not need a plane

    to fly to Honolulu after dramatic Apple Cup triumph, Cougs could

    understandably be in vacation mode. But win over woeful U-Dub not much

    evidence that WSU’s season-long issues on both “O” and “D” anywhere near

    solved. Hawaii hungry for one more win to make it bowl eligible (likely for its

    hometown Sheraton Bowl), and HC McMackin’s QB roulette wheel has landed

    on an winner in juco Alexander (5 TDP, 0 ints. last 2 wins).

    (DNP...SR: Washington State 2-1)

    ADDED GAMES

    Arkansas State 42 - NORTH TEXAS 14—Here’s an eye-catching

    stat...North Texas is 1-19 vs. the points getting more than 18 since early 2002.

    Arkansas State still alive for Sun Belt title and a trip to the New Orleans Bowl,

    and Red Wolves’ running attack (16th in the country; 5.3 ypc), led by RB Reggie

    Arnold & QB Corey Leonard, matches up favorably against the not-so-Mean

    Green defense that ranks as the worst in the nation, allowing 49 ppg & 491 ypg.

    (07-ARK. ST. 31-N. Tex. 27...A.29-23 N.43/221 A.31/167 A.26/53/2/313 N.22/30/1/160 A.0 N.1)

    (07-ASU -15 31-27 06-ASU -10 29-10 05-Asu -2' 31-24...SR: Arkansas State 9-8)

    Florida Intl. 27 - Fla. Atlantic 25—After landing plenty of haymakers on one

    another in recent meetings (closest final margin 31 points!), its unlikely these

    local rivals escape the gravity pull of the other in local Broward vs. Dade County

    grudge match. But season-long improvement on “D” and STs suggests Golden

    Panthers worth a look, especially with frosh WR Hilton (25 yp catch!) emerging

    as legit homerun threat for cool FIU QB McCall. (at Dolphin Stadium)

    (07-Fla. Atl. 55-Fla. Intl. 23...I.24-23 A.30/228 I.34/113 A.22/32/1/343 I.29/49/1/264 A.0 I.0)

    (07-Fau -11 55-23 at Dolphin Stad. 06-Fau -4 31-0 at DS 05-FIU -1' 52-6...SR: FAU 5-1)

    The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Technical Play of the Week

    VANDERBILT over Wake Forest...Vandy 15-3 vs. line last 18 as road dog,

    and Dores have covered last 5 as non-SEC visitor. Meanwhile, Wake just 5-16

    vs. number its last 21 as Winston-Salem chalk.

    This is only one of the featured Technical Plays of the Week in this week’s

    edition of The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Tech Plays off solid 4-1 week!

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 26 2008 12:51am
  3. 0 likes

    Gold Sheet NFL

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    KEY RELEASES

    TENNESSEE by 21 over Detroit

    INDIANAPOLIS by 14 over Cleveland

    OVER THE TOTAL in the San Francisco-Buffalo game

    =================================================

    THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 27

    ***Tennessee 31 - DETROIT 10—Tennessee is licking its wounds after

    its drubbing by the Jets, but at least the pressure of staying unbeaten is off.

    Now, the pressure is “on” Detroit to remain winless in order to exceed the 1976

    Buccaneers’ 0-14 mark for single-season futility! Daunte Culpepper has four

    ints. the last two games. And Lions 0-5 vs. the spread at home TY. Host

    unlikely to do much business vs. prideful Titan defense (fewest points allowed

    until last week), while Tennessee’s ground game should flourish vs. NFL’s

    worst rush defense. Detroit no wins or covers last four T-Days. TV—CBS

    (04-TENN +2' 24-19...SR: Tennessee 6-3)

    DALLAS 27 - Seattle 19—Like Purdue’s respected mentor Joe Tiller,

    Seattle’s Mike Holmgren announced prior to the season he would not be back

    after TY. How is that working out for those two? However, despite their

    troubles, Seahawks tend to make a game of it when healthy enough (which they

    are these days). And Dallas, despite all its publicity, is rarely a blow-out team

    at home recently (2-5 vs. spread last 7). Hesitant to lay a bundle in this match,

    even though Tony Romo’s thumb improving. TV-FOX

    (06-SEATTLE -2 21-20 (Playoffs)...SR: Dallas 6-5)

    NFL ANALYSIS

    *Arizona 27 - PHILADELPHIA 24—The potent Cardinals have not done very

    well when traveling east so far TY, losing by 7 at Washington, 21 at the N.Y.

    Jets, and 4 at Carolina (covering at the latter). Now they must do so on short

    rest. However, Donovan McNabb (pulled at halftime last week) has been eating

    manure with a shovel since his admission he didn’t know about ties in the NFL,

    and Andy Reid is disappointing many Eagle fans with his seeming lack of

    enthusiasm and inspiration. Cards’ Kurt Warner and his receivers have it

    “going on” offensively; rookie CB Rogers-Cromartie a pleasant addition on

    defense. TV—NFL NETWORK

    (05-ARIZONA -1' 27-21...SR: Arizona 54-53-5)

    SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 30

    NY JETS 31 - Denver 20—Broncs 3-2 vs. the spread on the road TY,

    including victories at Cleveland & Atlanta in last two excursions. Nonetheless,

    the fear exists that Thomas Jones’ running (950 YR) could dominate the Denver

    rush defense (29th thru first 10 games), splitting it wide open for super-quick

    Leon Washington and tough-to-cover rookie TE Dustin Keller (26 recs. last 5

    games), who’s quickly becoming a Favre favorite. Thanks largely to DT Kris

    Jenkins drawing double teams, Jets (four straight covers) among the leaders in

    sacks. Bronco defense has only four ints. all year!

    ***OVER THE TOTAL BUFFALO 31 - San Francisco 21—Bills got back on track in

    way in last week’s 54-31 win at K.C., with Trent Edwards (24 of

    32, 2 TDs) passing with authority. And rookie CB/KR Leodis McKelvin supplied

    needed relief to a banged-up secondary. This is a big game for Edwards and RB

    Marshawn Lynch (Stanford & Cal, respectively), both northern California

    natives. Niners 4-0 “over” the total since Mike Singletary took over.

    (04-Buffalo -11 41-7...SR: Buffalo 5-4)

    TAMPA BAY 28 - New Orleans 20—No reason to overreact to RB Earnest

    Graham’s ankle injury, as Warrick Dunn (90 YR last week at Detroit) and return

    of Cadillac Williams (16 attempts) give Bucs plenty of options. A bit more

    concerned about personnel situation for N.O., with possible suspensions

    looming, further hurting depth already tested by injuries in secondary (top CBs

    McKenzie & Porter gone). Drew Brees no mystery to Monte Kiffin’s sticky

    “Tampa Two” schemes; playoff-seeking Bucs on 5-1 SU run since Jeff Garcia

    re-assumed QB duties in mid-October.

    (08-N. ORL. 24-T. Bay 20...T.18-16 T.20/146 N.27/101 N.23/32/1/337 T.24/41/1/206 N.0 T.0)

    (07-T. BAY 31-N. Orl. 14...N.19-14 N.26/99 T.32/87 N.26/44/1/244 T.10/16/0/243 T.0 N.1)

    (07-T. Bay 27-N. ORL. 23...T.24-13 T.26/172 N.21/84 T.29/37/1/294 N.17/23/0/162 T.0 N.1)

    (08-N. ORL. -3 24-20; 07-T. BAY +4' 31-14, T. Bay +3' 27-23...SR: New Orleans 20-13)

    Carolina 24 - GREEN BAY 23—Packers were hot (five straight covers) going

    into their Monday nighter at New Orleans. But G.B. could have its hands full vs. the tough-running Panthers, who are able to repeatedly strike the Packers where it is most vulnerable—vs. the run. Carolina had allowed the fewest points in the

    NFC prior to last week’s loss in Atlanta, and the Panthers have usually been one

    of the league’s top road dogs

    (21-10-2 last 33). G.B. “over” 20-8 at home.

    (07-G. BAY 31-Car. 17...C.21-18 C.29/131 G.27/103 C.19/37/2/251 G.22/30/0/214 G.0 C.1)

    (07-GREEN BAY -9' 31-17...SR: Green Bay 7-3)

    NY Giants 23 - WASHINGTON 16—Giants led 16-0 late in first half of

    opening-day meeting between these two, and they appear to have improved

    since, even with declining contributions from Plaxico Burress (10 for 133 in first

    game). N.Y. is 12-1 vs. spread last 13 on road and appears improved since that

    game, being triple deep at RB (check Brandon Jacobs’ status), while

    Washington’s Clinton Portis (1206 YR) carrying a huge load. Skins’ defense

    tough, but has only 17 sacks.

    (08-GIANTS 16-Wash. 7...N.21-11 N.32/154 W.24/84 N.19/35/1/200 W.15/27/0/125 N.0 W.0)

    (07-Giants 24-WASH. 17...N.19-14 N.30/96 W.27/82 N.21/36/2/219 W.16/34/0/178 N.1 W.1)

    (07-Wash. 22-GIANTS 10...W.20-14 W.35/153 N.28/139 N.18/53/0/168 W.8/25/0/156 W.0 N.1)

    (08-NY GIANTS -4 16-7; 07-NY Giants +3' 24-17, Wash. +5 22-10...SR: NY Giants 87-62-4)

    Miami 31 - ST. LOUIS 16—Given the fact St. Louis has been outscored 123-

    13 in the first half of its last four games, the main mystery of Ram games these

    days is what the Vegas sportsbooks decide to do with their first-half prices

    (we’re guessing St. Louis trading at a pretty deep discount). No matter, have no

    interest in backing dispirited Ram crew that now might see QB Bulger

    (concussion last week vs. Bears) join Steven Jackson & Orlando Pace on

    sidelines. Can’t wait to see what havoc Miami’s “Wildcat” formations wreak vs.

    soft Ram “D” allowing nearly 5 ypc. (04-MIAMI +6 31-14...SR: Miami 8-2)

    Baltimore 23 - CINCINNATI 10—With Cincy’s makeshift OL causing

    Harvard man Ryan Fitzpatrick to risk the sort of beatings once reserved for the

    likes of George Chuvalo and Tex Cobb, we shudder to think what damage Ray

    Lewis and the ravenous Raven defense might cause. Remember, Bengals had

    most hands on deck, including QB Palmer and diva Ocho Cinco, when held to

    just 158 yards in opener at Baltimore. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco has been mostly

    heady and steady, and no shame in any of Ravens’ defeats (vs. Steelers,

    Titans, Colts, & Giants).

    (08-BALT. 17-Cincy 10...B.21-8 B.46/229 C.23/65 B.15/29/0/129 C.10/25/1/89 B.2 C.1)

    (07-CINCY 27-Balt. 20...B.20-13 B.25/107 C.23/55 B.22/40/2/207 C.20/32/0/181 C.2 B.4)

    (07-Cincy 21-BALT. 7...C.17-16 C.34/70 B.18/66 C.23/34/0/256 B.23/34/2/206 C.0 B.4)

    (08-BALTIMORE +2 17-10; 07-CINCINNATI -2' 27-20, Cincinnati +3' 21-7...SR: Baltimore 14-11)

    ***Indianapolis 31 - CLEVELAND 17—Browns’ defense (98 points in

    last three games prior to last week) appears to be slipping, and, now, emerging

    QB Brady Quinn had to be pulled last week because of his finger fracture. Plus,

    there’s new speculation a losing season might cost Romeo Crennel his job

    (more Bill Cowher talk fired up last week). Cleveland has covered its last five as

    a dog. But Indy is now hitting its stride, with four straight wins, Manning and OL

    healthy, Joseph Addai back in action, and Colts 23-8 SU on road last 3+Ys.

    Braylon Edwards leads the NFL in drops.

    (05-INDIANAPOLIS -14 13-6...SR: Cleveland 15-13)

    Atlanta 24 - SAN DIEGO 23—M.T. vs. L.T., as Michael Turner (1088 YR)

    returns to S.D., where he gave up a year of free agency LY in order to give the

    Chargers a powerful backup in their derailed try for the Super Bowl. Now, “The

    Burner” has got his new team in the playoff chase, while S.D. is moaning about

    its frequent late losses. We’ll trust in HC Mike Smith & outstanding rookie QB

    Matt Ryan vs. the vulnerable Charger defense.

    (04-ATLANTA -4' 21-20...SR: Atlanta 6-1)

    Pittsburgh 23 - NEW ENGLAND 20—It’s Belichick vs. Roethlisberger when

    the Steelers have the ball, and Cassel vs. LeBeau when the Patriots do.

    Foresee an edge to LeBeau, especially with Pittsburgh getting a much-needed

    few days extra rest their walking wounded (including Roethlisberger & Willie

    Parker). Cassel has hit the 400-mark passing two straight games, but Pitt’s toprated defense has kept all foes TY under 300 total yards!

    (07-N. ENG. 34-Pitt 13...N.21-19 P.32/181 N.9/22 N.32/46/0/399 P.19/32/0/168 N.0 P.1)

    (07-NEW ENGLAND -10' 34-13...SR: Pittsburgh 13-10)

    Kansas City 20 - OAKLAND 17—Payback time for the Chiefs, who saw thenstarting

    QB Damon Huard depart TY’s first meeting with an early concussion,

    leaving then No. 3 Tyler Thigpen to take over. Raiders (no offensive TDs previous

    three games), had an outpouring of three last week in Denver. But Thigpen now

    making use of K.C.’s re-tailored offense and quality targets Tony Gonzalez and

    Dwayne Bowe. K.C. has won five straight in Oakland!

    (08-Oak. 23-K. CITY 8...O.18-15 O.47/300 K.19/55 K.17/38/2/135 O.6/17/0/55 O.2 K.0)

    (07-K. City 12-OAK. 10...K.14-10 K.32/126 O.24/55 O.18/29/1/213 K.16/32/1/164 K.0 O.1)

    (07-Oak. 20-K. CITY 17...O.19-18 K.37/164 O.29/153 O.15/22/0/159 K.12/23/1/128 O.1 K.0)

    (08-Oakland +3' 23-8; 07-Kansas City +2' 12-10, Oakland +4' 20-17...SR: Kansas City 52-45-2)

    *Chicago 24 - MINNESOTA 23—Minny, which has allowed eight defense/

    return TDs TY, gave up three of them in wild first meeting—one each on a blocked

    punt, mishandled punt, and a fumble. Chicago (four ints. of depressed Rams last

    week), unlikely to benefit from such generosity in rematch. However, Vikes

    reportedly face the prospect of having top DE Jared Allen (8 sacks) and key DTs

    Kevin Willams (8½ sacks) & Pat Williams (one) suspended this week because of

    substance violations. With that possibility looming, not eager to lay any points at

    this writing. TV—NBC

    (08-CHI. 48-Minn. 41...M.28-20 M.32/155 C.22/53 M.25/40/4/284 C.21/32/0/274 C.1 M.1)

    (07-Minn. 34-CHI. 31...C.20-16 M.43/311 C.24/83 C.26/45/2/375 M.9/23/0/133 M.0 C.2)

    (07-MINN. 20-Chi. 13...M.21-11 M.34/136 C.17/32 M.18/29/3/236 C.22/38/1/177 M.1 C.0)

    (08-CHICAGO -3 48-41; 07-Minn. +5 34-31, MINN. -10' 20-13...SR: Minnesota 50-43-2)

    MONDAY, DECEMBER 1

    *HOUSTON 31 - Jacksonville 23—Jags only 1-5 vs. spread in trips to

    Houston. And Jacksonville is only a shell of its 2007 physically-dominating self,

    with its OL interior crippled with injuries and its defense lacking LY’s chemistry

    and intimidation. Although Sage Rosenfels (2 more ints. last week) not as reliable

    as Matt Schaub, his supporting cast of rookie RB Steve Slaton (774 YR), and

    receivers Andre Johnson (81 recs.), Kevin Walter (47) and Owen Daniels (48) is

    far better balanced than that of the Jags. Houston “over” 9-2 TY; 13-3 last 16.

    CABLE TV—ESPN

    (08-JACK. 30-Hou. 27 (OT)...H.23-21 J.25/139 H.23/79 H.29/40/0/307 J.23/32/0/236 J.0 H.0)

    (07-JACK. 37-Hou. 17...J.25-23 J.26/244 H.24/61 H.30/43/1/329 J.22/34/0/213 J.3 H.2)

    (07-HOU. 42-Jack. 28...J.24-19 H.34/170 J.23/96 J.25/39/0/285 H.11/18/1/120 H.0 J.1)

    (08-JACK. -7 30-27 (OT); 07-JACK. -6' 37-17, HOUSTON -6' 42-28...SR: Houston 7-6)

    HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2007 (not necessarily Mon. night)

    2008 Reg. Seas.: Jacksonville -7 beat Houston 30-27 at Jacksonville in OT

    2007 Reg. Seas.: Houston -6½ beat Jacksonville 42-28 at Houston

    2007 Reg. Seas.: Jacksonville -6½ beat Houston 37-17 at Jacksonville

    MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY

    Jacksonville and Houston on Monday Night

    Jacksonville is 1-2 straight-up and 1-2 vs. the pointspread on the road on

    Monday Night Football; 6-2 straight-up and 5-3 vs. the pointspread at home

    on Monday Night Football. Houston is 0-0 straight-up and 0-0 vs. the

    pointspread at home on Monday Night Football; 0-0 straight-up

    and 0-0 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.

    PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-08)

    Favorites vs. Pointspread

    Favored by 1-6½ points ..................... Won 92, Lost 94, Tied 4

    Favored by 7 points or more ............. Won 37, Lost 32, Tied 2

    Total ............................... Favorites Won 129, Lost 126, Tied 6

    Home Teams vs. Pointspreads

    Home Team Favorite ......................... Won 92, Lost 94, Tied 6

    Home Team Underdog .................................. Won 32, Lost 36

    Home Team at Pick ........................................... Won 1, Lost 0

    Total .......................... Home Team Won 125, Lost 130, Tied 6

    2008 MONDAY NIGHT RESULTS

    Green Bay -2½ beat Minnesota 24-19 at Green Bay o38

    Denver -3 beat Oakland 41-14 at Oakland o41

    Dallas -7 beat Philadelphia 41-37 at Dallas o47

    San Diego -8½ beat NY Jets 48-29 at San Diego o44½

    Pittsburgh -5 beat Baltimore 23-20 in OT at Pittsburgh o33½

    Minnesota +3 beat New Orleans 30-27 at New Orleans o46½

    Cleveland +8½ beat NY Giants 35-14 at Cleveland o43½

    New England -3 beat Denver 41-7 at New England n48

    Tennessee -4 beat Indianapolis 31-21 at Tennessee o40½

    Pittsburgh +2½ beat Washington 23-6 at Washington u37

    Arizona -9½ beat San Francisco 29-24 at Arizona o47

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 26 2008 12:52am
  4. 0 likes

    Winning Points

    COLLEGE

    ****BEST BET

    MEMPHIS* over TULANE by 32

    Tommy West and his Tigers may have played their way out of the Conference USA

    championship game and any real bowl hopes with that loss to Central Florida, but

    it was more a case of giving a game away than being beaten – they held the Golden

    Knights to 10 first downs and 194 yards of total offense. A defeat like that can

    leave a bad taste, and they have the ideal opponent to vent those frustrations

    against, as the Green Wave arguably have fallen further since week #1 than any

    team at this level. That means that the rout is on. Bob Toledo’s squad simply could

    not afford to take many injuries this season but that is exactly what has happened,

    with the offense lacking a true go-to player at either QB or RB right now, and the

    defense a shell of what it once was. As such in their current 1-4 ATS run they have

    lost every game by at least 17 points, and note that the only cover came in a game

    at L.S.U. in which the offense did not score a touchdown (an interception return

    for a score got them the money in a 35-10 loss as +28). But on Saturday it was truly

    a special low at Tulsa. If we see the Golden Hurricanes putting 56 points on the

    scoreboard we think it is David Johnson and that wide open offense flying all over

    the field, but instead they did everything they could to take it easy on Tulane, with

    59 running plays vs. only 13 passes. But those runs produced a staggering 489

    yards against a defense that has nothing left. With Arkelon Hall working some

    kinks out last week the Tigers can take full advantage. MEMPHIS 48-16.

    ***BEST BET

    NEBRASKA* over COLORADO by 33 (Friday)

    Bo Pelini has been able to make some good things happen in his first season in

    Lincoln – the Cornhuskers are slowly putting the building blocks together for a

    return to those Black Shirts of the past on defense (the numbers are not good this

    season, but compare them to last year). And the physical ground game that went

    MIA under Bill Callahan is also on the way back, going for 1,092 yards in the last

    five games alone. Combine that with the accuracy of Joe Ganz and a solid corps of

    WR’s, and the offense is on a major late-season roll for the second straight year,

    with only Oklahoma holding them to under 31 points over the last six games, and

    no team holding them to less than 400 yards. That spells bad news for a Colorado

    defense that can not key on any aspect of the Cornhusker attack, and will be on

    their heels all afternoon. It also means a weak Buffalo passing attack is going to

    have to play from behind through the day, which is also not their strong suit. But

    perhaps the biggest element here is the line value, which comes from a most unusual

    plot twist – the Cornhuskers have gone 4-3 SU and ATS in Big 12 play despite

    losing the turnover battle in six of seven games, for a combined -10. To sport a

    winning record against good competition with that differential is a major accomplishment,

    and it keeps this line several points short of where it should be.

    Meanwhile Ganz should direct a clean game plan against a defense that has not had

    more than two takeaways in a lined game this season. NEBRASKA 49-16.

    **PREFERRED

    Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan* by 21 (Friday)

    The Chippewas were every bit the match of Ball State in that showdown last week,

    and one could walk away thinking that the final score was not pointing to the correct

    team. Ordinarily that could mean a major letdown in the ensuing game, but

    that is anything but the case here. Instead we expect Dan LeFevour and his teammates

    to use that added preparation time to develop a chip on their shoulder for

    this one, as they keep looking at films of LY’s 48-45 upset loss to these Eagles, the

    only Central Michigan conference defeat in 2007. And with the right focus, there

    are matchups all over the field that they can exploit. The Eastern defense lacks both

    the talent and the will to make stops right now, allowing 41.5 points and 476 yards

    over the last four games, which means a balanced Chippewa offense can move the

    ball at will. And in what is almost assuredly the last game in Ypsilanti for Jeff

    Genyk, where he has only cashed at a 3-7-1 clip as a home underdog, there is little

    fan support to keep a fading side interested. CENTRAL MICHIGAN 43-23.

    Arkansas* over L.S.U. by 6 (Friday)

    Although the Razorback defense let our BEST BET purposes down last week, it

    was yet another solid game from an offense that continues to grow in Bobby

    Petrino’s playbook, with those 442 yards the most allowed by Mississippi State in

    an S.E.C. game this season. And since there is no bowl bid coming this year this

    essentially becomes the bowl game for Petrino and his team, and a chance to build

    momentum into next season. We believe it can happen against a vulnerable L.S.U.

    team that comes in with a most fragile psyche, having nearly been tattooed at home

    by Troy two weeks ago, and then getting soundly whipped in Baton Rouge by Ole

    Miss on Saturday. The deeper we get into the Les Miles era the more we continue

    to lower the Tiger power ratings, and in their first road game in over a month they

    lack the polish to be able to take care of business, particularly at the QB position.

    Razorback seniors have taken the superior program to the final play three straight

    years, winning outright last year, so no intimidation factor. ARKANSAS 33-27.

    Texas Tech* over Baylor by 12

    Although Mike Leach has had a lot of success in Lubbock, his Red Raiders were

    never at the Big Dream level of this particular season before. That makes the physical

    and emotional bruising they took at Norman last week a crushing factor, and

    can lead to a serious hangover for this encounter. And while facing a Baylor team

    already locked into yet another losing season will do little to get them inspired, this

    is one week that they absolutely should be taking the opponent seriously. With

    Robert Griffin at the helm the Bear offense has real pieces to build for the future,

    like 11 touchdowns on plays of 40 yards or better, but how about a defense that

    has 10 interceptions in Big 12 play, including one from Sam Bradford, and two

    each from Colt McCoy and Chase Daniel. In truth, that is rather impressive. And

    having already faced those heavyweights the Bears know what this challenge is all

    about, so with two weeks to prepare for what becomes their bowl game, they have

    the freshness to make a good account of themselves. TEXAS TECH 39-27.

    South Carolina over Clemson* by 8

    The most recent results for each of these teams have put this line into entirely the

    wrong category. South Carolina had been one of the best defensive teams in the

    nation prior to getting humbled at Florida, but note that gap broke wide open

    without the defense having much of a chance at all – they stopped the Gators on

    each of their first two drives, and then it quickly became 21-0 with Florida gaining

    only 27 yards while getting those three TD’s. That brings an excellent unit into

    this one as an under-rated item, and they are more than capable of shackling a

    Clemson offense that may be on a two-game win streak, but still shows little signs

    of finding any real direction. How about 13 first downs and 192 yards in Saturday’s

    win over Virginia, including only 56 overland? A weak OL has never progressed,

    and is badly overmatched here. And not only do we get the best of the line here,

    but also Steve Spurrier with two full weeks to prepare against an opponent that

    lacks the same coaching experience on the sidelines. SOUTH CAROLINA 24-16.

    *CLOSE CALLS

    Ball State* over Western Michigan by 6 (Tuesday)

    We do not know, of course, if Ball State has remained unbeaten by surviving a

    tough challenge at Central Michigan, but if so the pressure builds even more here,

    and if the extra time off enables the Bronco WR corps to get healthy, this is a danger

    zone for the favorite. BALL STATE 33-27.

    Northern Illinois* over Navy by 3 (Tuesday)

    Having already clinched a specific bowl spot, and caught in a Notre Dame/Army

    sandwich, the Midshipmen could be vulnerable vs. a defense that just got a chance

    to see a running QB and some option looks vs. Kent. NO. ILLINOIS 27-24.

    Texas* over Texas A&M by 34 (Thanksgiving)

    There were early reports when Mike Sherman got to College Station that he was

    shocked at how bare the cupboard had been left. His debut season ends on a dismal

    note, and he probably wishes he had stayed retired. TEXAS 48-14.

    West Virginia over Pittsburgh* by 7 (Friday)

    Remember that Pat White as knocked out early of that huge Pittsburgh upset in

    Morgantown last December, and that then Panther defensive coordinator Paul

    Rhoades now designs the X’s at Auburn. WEST VIRGINIA 26-19.

    Miami O.* over Ohio by 3 (Friday)

    The rumors will be swirling all week that this is Shane Montgomery’s last home

    game, if indeed a firing is not announced before kickoff. That hardly leaves the

    RedHawks in the proper mental state, even against a most beatable opponent.

    MIAMI O. 27-24.

    Mississippi* over Mississippi State by 17 (Friday)

    Although the Bulldogs ruined our BEST BET hopes last week with a surprisingoffensive

    showing, their skill people are over-matched by the explosive Rebel performers.

    The road is a different place. MISSISSIPPI 31-14.

    Temple* over Akron by 3 (Friday)

    The schedule has seemed to take the starch out of a young Temple defense that was

    actually sporting decent numbers back in October. But they reach back for just

    enough here, in a game that will mean much more to them than it does to the visitors.

    TEMPLE 31-28.

    East Carolina* over U.T.E.P. by 11 (Friday)

    The Miners let it all hang out in that thrilling near-miss at Houston on Saturday,

    which could leave them with little in the tank when traveling on a short week,

    especially with goals of a winning season and a bowl bid officially gone. EAST

    CAROLINA 34-23.

    Buffalo* over Kent State by 8 (Friday)

    With four overtime games in the last six outings leaving Turner Gill’s Bulls with

    some tired legs, could he turn this into merely a scrimmage, while saving energy

    for next week’s trip to the M.A.C. title game? But will Kent try hard enough to

    make it matter anyway? BUFFALO 38-30.

    Toledo* over Bowling Green by 1 (Friday)

    Although motivation is usually easy to find in this neighborhood rivalry, especially

    when local bragging rights are all that either team has left, lets make the finale

    for Tom Amstutz enough to be the deciding factor. TOLEDO 28-27.

    Boise State* over Fresno State by 25 (Friday)

    In a major showdown game on the road against a hot opponent, Boise went -4 in

    turnovers last week, had two interceptions returned for touchdowns, yet still won

    and covered. That means something, like not wanting any part of Fresno here.

    BOISE STATE 45-20.

    Arizona State* over U.C.L.A. by 11 (Friday)

    When two struggling sides each have two weeks to prepare, it makes sense to call

    the lean to the team that at least has a QB that they can build a game plan around.

    ARIZONA STATE 30-19.

    N. C. State* over Miami F. by 3

    When making nominations for pointspread “Player of the Year”, note that N. C.

    State is 7-0 ATS in A.C.C. games with Russell Wilson as the starting QB, including

    our easy BEST BET ticket at North Carolina last week. N. C. STATE 23-20.

    Wake Forest* over Vanderbilt by 1

    This one comes down to who finds a way to score? Note that three of the four

    touchdowns produced by these teams came in interception returns last week.

    WAKE FOREST 17-16.

    Boston College* over Maryland by 4

    In the muddled A.C.C., this is the “play in” game for a spot in the conference title

    tilt. But to make these waters even more murky, the Eagles have only a weak to

    get Dominique Davis comfy as the #1 QB. BOSTON COLLEGE 20-16.

    Virginia Tech* over Virginia by 6

    We are not convinced that A.C.C. defenses are this good, which means that at

    bowl time we can expose the offenses as being truly awful. And we will get to buck

    one of these sides in the post-season. VIRGINIA TECH 22-16.

    North Carolina over Duke* by 11

    Without Thaddeus Lewis, the Duke passing game reached a truly awful level last

    week, with twice as many interceptions (4) as completions (2). So obviously his status

    is the key factor in this handicap. NORTH CAROLINA 24-13.

    Cincinnati* over Syracuse by 27

    Our margin shows that last week’s Syracuse win in South Bend was much more

    about the state of affairs with Notre Dame than the Orange necessarily reaching

    back for anything special. CINCINNATI 40-13.

    Nevada over Louisiana Tech* by 4

    We will follow the rumor mill closely to see if this becomes a “winner take all” in

    terms of getting a bowl bid, and the Wolf Pack might need that motivation off of

    last week’s draining loss to Boise. NEVADA 31-27.

    Houston over Rice* by 4

    We can not remember the last time this cross-town rivalry had the meaning that it

    does this week, with Houston a win away from clinching a spot in the Conference

    USA title game, and Rice looking to play spoiler. But the Owl ATS hopes are

    diminished by the oddsmakers giving some home field advantage that is really not

    there. HOUSTON 38-34.

    Utah State* over New Mexico State by 2

    By kickoff this could be lame-duck vs. lame-duck on the sidelines, which means

    that the coaches let the kids go out and have some fun by using every trick in the

    playbook. Over, perhaps. UTAH STATE 35-33.

    Southern Miss over S.M.U.* by 16

    Mustang Jessie Henderson needs just 42 more yards on kickoff returns to set the

    all-time NCAA record in that category. That is what inevitably happens when you

    play for a very bad team that allows the opposition to kick off often. SOUTHERN

    MISS 37-21.

    Missouri over Kansas by 14 (Kansas City)

    An injury-riddled Kansas secondary allowed 143 points in losses to Oklahoma,

    Texas Tech and Texas, while getting one interception in 135 pass attempts. There

    is little reason why it is any different against Chase Daniel. MISSOURI 37-23.

    Oklahoma over Oklahoma State* by 4

    The oddsmakers are forced to overly inflate the Sooners off of that Saturday night

    explosion, which makes a solid home team with two full weeks to prepare a most

    dangerous item. OKLAHOMA 34-30.

    Georgia* over Georgia Tech by 12

    The Bulldogs get the bonus of sitting back and watching the Georgia Tech option

    in action last Thursday, and the dynamic performance by the Yellow Jackets will

    have surely commanded their full attention. GEORGIA 28-16.

    Tulsa over Marshall* by 12

    Golden Hurricanes have to win here, and hope for a Rice upset of Houston, to

    make it to the Conference USA title game. They will at least take care of their part

    of the equation. TULSA 36-24.

    Alabama* over Auburn by 13

    It is rare that we see this pointspread range for a team that has lost six straight

    games against the specific opponent. But the Auburn offense is capable of giving

    points away when playing from behind, which lowers our enthusiasm for the concept.

    ALABAMA 26-13.

    Florida over Florida State* by 18

    Instead of perhaps holding back a little with that showdown vs. Alabama on deck,

    Urban Meyer may be more inclined to go for the jugular here, since his team has

    not had to play a serious down in the second half in nearly a month. Of course, he

    tends to go for the jugular most weeks anyway. FLORIDA 30-12.

    Tennessee* over Kentucky by 1

    Yes, the final game for Phil Fulmer brings some extra special emotion. But on the

    other side, Kentucky has lost 23 straight in this series, the longest run of any

    matchup at this level, and the Wildcats can see a genuine opening this time. TENNESSEE

    24-23.

    Central Florida* over U.A.B. by 4

    The Golden Knights have won back-to-back games despite only gaining a combined

    426 yards, which means that putting them in the role of a favorite of any

    kind of margin forces us to at least consider taking the underdog. CENTRAL

    FLORIDA 24-20.

    Oregon State* over Oregon by 1

    The formula for the Beavers is simple – win, and they celebrate New Year’s eve in

    Pasadena. But that means a special level of pressure, and also supplies their arch

    rivals with a unique motivation that they have rarely had in this series. Civil War,

    indeed. OREGON STATE 27-26.

    Southern Cal* over Notre Dame by 31

    Pete Carroll knows that his hopes of getting into a championship game require a

    lot of outside help, but he will relish the opportunity to at least show the voters

    something special. SOUTHERN CAL 41-10.

    Hawaii* over Washington State by 25

    If ever a team was going to turn a week in Hawaii into purely a vacation it would

    be these Cougars, who gave their all on the field to grab the Apple Cup last week.

    Their all is not much. HAWAII 42-17.

    Arkansas State over North Texas* by 18

    Next week’s game at Troy becomes meaningful if the Red Wolves take care of business

    here. Expect the Mean Green to offer only token resistance. ARKANSAS

    STATE 38-20.

    Florida Atlantic over Florida Int. by 7 (Dolphin Stadium)

    Mario Cristobal’s program is getting closer to being able to truly compete for local

    bragging rights, but still needs at least one more season to get over the hump.

    F.LORIDA ATLANTIC 27-20.

    UL Lafayette* over Middle Tennessee by 3 (Wednesday)

    The last home game for Tyrell Fenroy and Michael Desormeaux should call for

    some special focus by the Cajuns, but how damaging was that destruction at Troy

    do to their psyche? LOUISIANA 34-31.

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 26 2008 12:53am
  5. 0 likes

    Cko

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    10 *MISSISSIPPI over Mississippi State

    *OLE MISS 31 - Mississippi State 7

    (Friday, November 28)

    Rebels have had the edge in the Egg Bowl in recent seasons, especially in Oxford, where they are 3-0-1 vs. the

    spread the last four meetings. Everyone in the SEC respects the Mississippi State defense. But the lack of QB

    dynamism and the infrequency of big gainers makes it extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to keep pace with some

    foes, or to play catch-up in games. Meanwhile, the arrival of Houston Nutt has been a boon to the Ole Miss attack,

    with the HC turning Cordera Eason into a dependable power back and soph Jevan Snead into a big-game QB who

    has led wins at Florida and LSU. Nutt’s change-of-pace “Wild Rebel” formation (previously the “Wild Hog” at

    Arkansas) is now widely copied in both college and the NFL. Ole Miss’ big, deep, and experienced DL a nice

    advantage vs. MSU’s strong ground game.

    10 UTEP over *East Carolina

    UTEP 31 - *East Carolina 28

    (Friday, November 28)

    C-USA scouts report UTEP, motivated by a bowl bid with victory here, is not discouraged at all despite blowing DD

    lead in 42-37 loss at Houston last week. Miners, who suffered a late-season meltdown following a similarly heartbreaking

    loss to Rice in November year ago, won’t let that happen again. UTEP HC Mike Price says, “I’m not worried

    how we play the next game. We have a lot of character, a lot of heart. There is a lot of pride on this team.” And

    with banged-up East Carolina in celebratory mood after capturing its 1st-ever East title (Pirates only team with

    winning mark in that weak division), believe explosive, opportunistic Miners (35 ppg, +14 TO margin) avenge bitter

    OT loss to Pirates in ‘07. UTEP’s dynamic, soph QB Vittatoe (31 TDP, just 6 ints.), who has developed super rapport

    with 6-3 soph WR Adams (8 TDC last 3 games!), clearly outperforming ECU counterpart Pinkney, who was

    benched in sloppy (5 TOs) 17-13 squeaker at UAB. Plus, Pirates ground game offering little support (only 59 YR

    vs. Blazers). Miners 11-4-1 last 16 as visiting dog, while Holtz’s squad 1-8 last 9 vs. spread.

    11 *ALABAMA over Auburn

    *ALABAMA 34 - Auburn 6

    It’s been a while since Bama has had the resources to take out its frustrations on Iron Bowl rival Auburn, which

    has won last six meetings. For the first time in nearly a decade, however, Tide enters annual grudge match holding

    most of the cards. Nick Saban’s top-ranked, unbeaten crew has made a point of “taking names” this campaign,

    recording 3-0 spread mark in revenge games. And Saban’s “D” makes another success quite likely, as suffocating

    Bama stop unit (allowing just 12.5 ppg and 2.8 ypc) figures to overwhelm disjointed Tiger “O” that has struggled

    to locate any continuity TY following disastrous experiment with spread formation (and o.c. Franklin’s midseason

    dismissal). No such confusion with balanced Tide attack, piloted expertly by sr. QB Wilson (just 5 picks). And

    rivalry or not, can’t hesitate to buck Auburn bunch that’s covered only 2 of 10 on board in ‘08.

    10 *OREGON STATE over Oregon

    *OREGON STATE 34 - Oregon 20

    This is the biggest “Civil War” match under Oregon State HC Mike Riley’s watch, and have to believe Beavers are

    capable of capturing their sixth straight in the series, and with it a trip to the Rose Bowl. OSU must play through

    some injuries, but QB Sean Canfield filled in for the injured Lyle Moevao against Arizona and threw for 224 yards

    and led the team on a flawless 2-minute-drill drive for the game-winning field goal. Moevao’s return isn’t a concern

    for Riley, and RB Quizz Rodgers, who left the Arizona game with a shoulder sprain was ably replaced by Ryan

    McCants, Jeremy Francis and James Rodgers, who combined for 158 YR and caught 10 passes for another 75.

    The Beavers have won 13 of their last 14 at Reser Stadium (10-3 vs. the points; 1 “off” game), and this tilt has been

    sold out for weeks. OSU has turned it on in the 2nd half of the last three seasons, logging a 19-6 spread mark in

    games played from October on since 2006.

    10 ATLANTA over *San Diego

    ATLANTA 27 - *San Diego 24

    (Sunday, November 30)

    Falcons off a big win last week vs. Carolina. Buit now that they’re within a game of first place in the NFC South,

    look for no let-up despite their cross-country trip. More importantly, the fundamentals are in place for Atlanta,

    which runs the ball well with former Charger Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, passes better than most

    expected TY with heady rookie QB Matt Ryan and much-improved WR Roddy White, and defends better than most

    expected under new HC Mike Smith, the former defensive coordinator of the Jags who is obviously missed TY in

    Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Charger offense, defense, and coaching staff have been afflicted this season with

    continuing issues they can’t seem to escape—injuries, suspensions, poor decisions, and unfortunate officials’ calls.

    TOTALS: UNDER (41½) in the N.Y. Giants-Washington game—Three straight “unders” in the series; Redskins only two “overs”TY ...OVER (39½) in the

    Pittsburgh-New England game—Steeler offense a little healthier after extra rest; Belichick praising QB Matt Cassel (two straight 400-yard games) for his

    attention to detail and rapid learning.

    NINE-RATED GAMES: CINCINNATI (-22) vs. Syracuse—Bearcats strong on defense and can lock up Big East title; Brian Kelly always a high-percentage

    pointspread coach...MEMPHIS (-13) vs. Tulane—Tigers need this one for bowl eligibility; QB Arkelon Hall returned last week, and he’s just in time to face

    injury-ripped Tulane...RICE (+3) vs. Houston—Owls’ veteran offense equipped to trade with potent Houston; Owls 9-3 as a home dog since QB Clement

    arrived...MIAMI (-7½) at St. Louis—Miami desperate to keep its playoff hopes alive; Ram defense not well-equipped to handle the varied Dolphin running

    game...KANSAS CITY (+3) at Oakland—Yes, Raiders’ offense actually found the end zone last week, but that doesn’t mean Oakland is ready to lay points,

    even to K.C. (which has won five straight in Oakland).

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 26 2008 12:54am
  6. 0 likes

    Winning Points

    NFL

    ****BEST BET

    *Washington over New York Giants by 17

    Now that the Giants clearly are established as the best team in the league,

    it’s time for them to lose. Sorry, but that’s just the way it works in the NFL.

    It’s called flat spots. The Giants have a giant one here, leading the brutal

    NFC Eastern Division by a whooping three games. We had the Giants

    pegged as our four-star Best Bet winner last week. In the NFL, though, you

    have to know when to Zig and when to Zag.New York is an astounding 15-

    1 in its last 16 road contests.That level can’t be maintained.The Redskins

    lost to New York, 16-7, during opening week. New York held the Redskins

    to just 209 yards and 11 first downs. But Washington has improved a great

    deal since then. Jason Campbell is comfortable now running new coach Jim

    Zorn’s offense, Clinton Portis has established himself as a legitimate MVP

    candidate leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage and the defense has

    stayed at a high level.The Redskins are physical.They won’t back down or

    be intimidated by the Giants.They are extremely well coached on defense.

    They are that rare team that doesn’t really have any serious deficiencies.

    That makes them a serious roadblock for the Giants. New York had to fly

    back East following a satisfying road win at Arizona.This is the Giants’ third

    away matchup in four weeks. Several key players are banged-up for New

    York, including star running back Brandon Jacobs and wide receiver

    Plaxico Burress. Jacobs didn’t play versus the Cardinals. It was no coincidence

    the Giants failed to run for 100 yards for the first time this season.

    The Redskins’ run defense is better than Arizona’s.Washington entered last

    week ranked fifth in rush defense. Burress aggravated a hamstring injury.

    His absence would cost the Giants their best wide receiver and Eli

    Manning’s favorite Red Zone target.WASHINGTON 27-10.

    ***BEST BET

    *Oakland over Kansas City by 20

    We hit big with the Raiders as a Preferred Bet winner last week in their 21-

    point road upset victory against Denver. We’re coming right back with

    Oakland this week, moving it up to Best Bet status. It’s always wise to be

    aware of the handicapping axiom that a team is never as good or as bad as

    it looked the week before. But in the case of the Raiders, there are strong

    indicators that they can easily cover this matchup. First off, the opponent

    is Kansas City.This is a team that has lost 19 of its past 20, including the past

    seven. The Chiefs have the worst defense in the NFL. The Raiders have a

    respectable running punch of Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden to gash

    the Chiefs’weak rush defense. Remember,Oakland out-rushed Kansas City,

    300-55, in its 23-8 win during Week 2.McFadden ran for 164 of those yards.

    He’s finally over a lingering toe injury.McFadden provides the Raiders with

    a sorely needed outside threat.The Raiders have confidence following their

    impressive road showing at Denver. JaMarcus Russell actually displayed

    touch. He’ll be working against an inexperienced Chiefs secondary that

    had problems with slump-plagued Trent Edwards.Third-string Kansas City

    quarterback Tyler Thigpen has played better than anyone could have

    expected. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes and three interceptions in

    his last five games. However, defenses are picking up on the Chiefs’ spread

    formation offense that initially caught the league by surprise.The Raiders’

    strength is their pass defense, especially now that DeAngelo Hall is gone.

    Hall wasn’t a fit in Oakland’s scheme. It didn’t draw that much attention,

    but Derrick Burgess returned to the Raiders’ lineup last week after missing

    the past six games. Burgess is the Raiders’ most athletic lineman and best

    pass rusher.OAKLAND 26-6.

    **PREFERRED

    Baltimore over *Cincinnati by 16

    The future already has arrived for Cincinnati.That’s not a good thing when

    it’s still November. But with 13 players out for the season and just one win,

    the Bengals simply aren’t competitive. They are 8-21-1 in their last 30

    games. Marvin Lewis holds a 7-4 edge on the Ravens. His respect and

    power, though, have gone way downhill thanks to the meddling of owner

    Mike Brown.The Bengals are at their weakest versus physical teams such

    as their opponent here, Baltimore. The Bengals can’t run the ball. Cedric

    Benson has no burst or power.The Ravens haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher

    during a league-high 30 straight games. The Ravens out-gained the

    Bengals, 358-154, during their 17-10 Week 1 victory.That was with rookie

    quarterback Joe Flacco making his first NFL start. He’s much improved

    since then and the Ravens have added to their offensive package because

    of it. The Bengals had Carson Palmer in their first meeting against

    Baltimore. He was held to less than 100 yards passing and no touchdowns

    in one of his worst games. Palmer is hoping to still make it back this season,

    but it won’t come Sunday. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is just a check

    down thrower. He can’t avoid sacks behind a porous offensive line and

    can’t stretch a defense with downfield passes.This is an easy assignment for

    Baltimore’s defense. BALTIMORE 23-7.

    Pittsburgh over *New England by 9

    Tom Brady would be hard-pressed to duplicate what Matt Cassel has done

    the past two games – throw for 815 yards and six touchdown passes. Cassel

    isn’t Brady, though. He needs a ground game to set up his throws.

    Pittsburgh has the No. 1 rush defense in the league.The Steelers have had

    held their last 11 foes under 300 yards. They have the dominant rush

    defense and strong pass rush from their linebackers to make it miserable

    for Cassel, who lacks Brady’s decision-making and throws under pressure.

    The flip side is Ben Roethlisberger can light up an overrated and battered

    New England secondary lacking a shutdown corner, something that Bill

    Belichick has had until this season.The Steelers are used to cold weather.

    They can win under any circumstances, winning four of their five road

    games this season. The situation works well in Pittsburgh’s favor. The

    Steelers have been at home during the past three weeks. They’ve had a

    nine-day layoff to rest and prepare for this conference matchup having

    played a week ago from Thursday.The Patriots, on the other hand, played at

    Indianapolis four weeks ago.They’ve then faced all three of their division

    foes in the last three weeks. They had a huge revenge victory this past

    Sunday against Miami in a physical and emotional matchup.That win could

    take a heavy toll here. PITTSBURGH 23-14.

    *CLOSE CALLS

    Tennessee over *Detroit by 14 (Thanksgiving)

    With Turkey day matchups like this, maybe the NFL should strongly consider

    not having Detroit be the annual Thanksgiving host.The Titans are not

    built for covering mammoth spreads due to their heavy reliance on running

    the ball and establishing field position.The myth of Detroit being competitive

    on Thanksgiving has been shattered this decade. The Lions have

    lost in six of the last seven Thanksgiving games, including the past four.

    Tennessee actually is 4-0 when playing on Thanksgiving.The catch is they

    last were seen on Thanksgiving in 1997.TENNESSEE 27-13.

    *Dallas over Seattle by 11 (Thanksgiving)

    Mike Holmgren will try to salvage a little team pride by having his

    Seahawks get up for this nationally televised matchup. Matt Hasselbeck

    should finally have had enough time to work with his battered receiving

    corps that has started to get healthy.The problem is Dallas’ passing attack

    is capable of overwhelming the Seahawks’ beleaguered secondary that

    ranked among the three worst. The Seahawks will be without their best

    pass rusher, Patrick Kerney. DALLAS 31-20.

    *Philadelphia over Arizona by 7 (Thanksgiving)

    The boo-birds could be out in full force to greet the Eagles playing in their

    first home Thanksgiving home game since 1940. It’s been a disappointing

    season for Philadelphia. However, there are some disturbing trends working

    against Arizona.The Cardinals are 1-16 SU in non-division road contests.

    They also have lost 16 of 18 games played in the Eastern Time Zone since

    2003. Kurt Warner can expect to see an array of blitzes from all direction

    matched up vs. defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. PHILADELPHIA 27-20.

    *New York Jets over Denver by 6

    The Jets have to guard against letting down here, though, following their

    upset of previously unbeaten Tennessee on the road.That’s made them the

    toast of New York.There’s one thing that hasn’t changed about Brett Favre.

    He can be great one week and the following week he can throw a bunch

    of interceptions. Denver isn’t a very good team. Injuries have decimated its

    defense and rushing attack. The Broncos are weather-tested. Quarterback

    Jay Cutler can keep them in games with his big arm, although he may have

    problems if the eastern winds are swirling. NY JETS 27-21.

    *Buffalo over San Francisco by 3

    This game goes early Sunday.That’s important to note considering Pacific

    Time zone teams have yet to win in 14 tries when playing in the Eastern

    Time zone this season. Mike Singletary has put some fire into the 49ers.

    However, the 49ers don’t have much talent and are prone to giving up long

    pass plays. The Bills scored their second-highest total ever, putting up 54

    points on the Chiefs. Two things to keep in mind about that: The Chiefs

    have the worst defense in the NFL and prior to that matchup Buffalo’s

    offense had put up five touchdowns in its last four games. The Bills have

    dropped five of their last seven. BUFFALO 24-21.

    *Tampa Bay over New Orleans by 7

    It’s a bad spot for New Orleans, traveling on a short week following its

    Monday night game and playing on grass.The Saints are 1-4 ATS in officially

    designated road contests this season.Tampa Bay has covered 10 of its last

    14 home matchups.The Bucs are relying on Warrick Dun for their ground

    duties with Earnest Graham out for the year. Drew Brees entered Monday

    night ahead of pace to break the single-season passing yardage mark, while

    leading New Orleans to a No. 1 ranking in total yards.The Saints did have

    17 turnovers and a history of trouble versus physical defenses on the road.

    TAMPA BAY 27-20.

    *Green Bay over Carolina by 2

    Carolina hasn’t looked impressive, winning three of its games by a combined

    eight points. It caught up to the Panthers in a loss last week to

    Atlanta.The Panthers host Tampa Bay next week in what looms as a division

    showdown. Green Bay has covered eight of its past 11 games at Lambeau

    Field.This may be the first time the Panthers encounter bad weather this

    season.The Packers went into Monday’s game versus New Orleans with a

    league-high nine return touchdowns. The Packers are vulnerable to good

    ground attacks. Carolina has two solid runners, DeAngelo Williams and

    Jonathan Stewart. GREEN BAY 23-21.

    Miami over *St. Louis by 8

    The St. Louis fans still haven’t stopped booing. Can you blame them? The

    Rams are last in scoring and near the bottom in defense.They have been

    outscored by an average of 27 points in their last four games and have

    dropped five straight. St. Louis has failed to cover the spread in 11 of its past

    14 games. Even if by some chance the Rams were to get back Steven

    Jackson, offensive tackle Orlando Pace and Marc Bulger they are still

    impossible to back.What keeps us from making Miami a stronger play is the

    Dolphins are in a division sandwich off a physical game against New

    England and playing at Buffalo next week. MIAMI 27-19.

    Indianapolis over *Cleveland by 1

    Those fashionable preseason predictions of the Browns winning the AFC

    North aren’t exactly in style now. Cleveland has dropped its last three

    home games, disgusting their loyal fans. Romeo Crennel very well could be

    a lame duck coach. Brady Quinn may not be able to pass effectively with a

    broken right index finger. Potential bad weather and the questionable status

    of star safety Bob Sanders are reason to temper enthusiasm for

    Indianapolis in this spot, though.The Colts are a dome team.The Browns

    have covered in 14 of the last 17 times they’ve met opponents with a winning

    mark. INDIANAPOLIS 21-20.

    *San Diego over Atlanta by 8

    Michael Turner comes to face his old San Diego teammates having scored

    four touchdowns last week. Turner could begin to wear down, however,

    having already succeeded the number of carries this season he’s had during

    his entire NFL career.Traveling three time zones doesn’t help. Previous

    to last week, Turner has just one 100-yard rushing effort in his past five

    games.This is Atlanta’s first road game in four weeks.The Chargers are off

    a marquee Sunday night home matchup versus the Colts, but the Falcons

    have the bigger letdown factor having blasted division rival Carolina at

    home. SAN DIEGO 28-20.

    *Minnesota over Chicago by 4

    Traditionally the Vikings are tough when hosting the Bears, winning five of

    the past six at the Metrodome while going 4-2 ATS. Minnesota should be

    pumped.This is its only home game during a five-week span.The revengeminded

    Vikings draw Chicago playing in its third consecutive road game.

    The Bears are modestly talented, but own a strong special teams edge and

    have the better quarterback.Kyle Orton lit up the Vikings for 283 yards and

    two touchdowns in a 48-41 Chicago win in Week 7. There’s a chance

    Minnesota two best run-stuffers, tackles Kevin Williams and Pat Williams,

    could be suspended this week.MINNESOTA 24-20.

    Jacksonville over *Houston by 1 (Monday)

    Jacksonville ranks up there among the most disappointing teams. Maybe

    the Jaguars will treat this Monday night game division rivalry like their

    Super Bowl.They should be able to run if the Texans are still missing defensive

    tackles Travis Johnson and Amobi Okoye. The Jaguars got past the

    Texans, 30-27 in overtime in Week 4 despite Houston quarterback Matt

    Schaub throwing three touchdowns and 307 yards. Backup QB Sage

    Rosenfels is turnover prone has a nine-to-five interception-to-touchdown

    ratio. Houston has won four of its last six home games versus the Jaguars,

    covering five of the six. JACKSONVILLE 31-30.

    OVER/UNDER

    **OVER: Jacksonville at Houston – The Jaguars should be able to run

    on Houston’s banged-up defensive front, while the Texans have gone ‘over’

    nine of 11 times this season.

    UNDER: Baltimore at Cincinnati – The Bengals are averaging a meager

    13.4 points and have gone ‘under’ in 11 of their last 17.

    UNDER: Kansas City at Oakland – Oakland has scored two touchdowns

    on offense in the last 17 quarters, but has its best defensive lineman

    back, Derrick Burgess.

    HISTORICAL TRENDS

    Tennessee at Detroit – The Titans beat the Lions, 24-19, at home in 2004.

    Seattle at Dallas – The Seahawks edged the Cowboys, 21-20, at home in

    the playoffs in 2006.

    Arizona at Philadelphia – The Cardinals slipped past the Eagles, 27-21, at

    home in 2005.

    Denver at New York Jets – The Broncos blanked the Jets, 27-0, at home in

    2005.

    San Francisco at Buffalo – The Bills blasted the 49ers, 41-7, on the road in

    2004.

    New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Saints defeated the Buccaneers, 24-20,

    in Week 1.

    Carolina at Green Bay – The Packers beat the Panthers, 31-17, at home

    last season.

    New York Giants at Washington – The Giants beat the Redskins, 16-7,

    opening week.

    Miami at St. Louis – The Dolphins trimmed the Rams, 31-14, at home in

    2004.

    Baltimore at Cincinnati – Baltimore beat the Bengals, 17-10, in Week 1.

    The Bengals are 6-2 SU in the last eight in the series.

    Indianapolis at Cleveland – The Colts slipped past the Browns, 13-6, at

    home in 2005.

    Atlanta at San Diego – The Falcons edged the Chargers, 21-20, at home in

    2004.

    Pittsburgh at New England – The Patriots rolled past the Steelers, 34-13,

    at home last season.

    Kansas City at Oakland – The Raiders knocked off the Chiefs, 23-8, in

    Week 2.The Chiefs are 9-2 SU during the past 11 in the series, but 5-5-1 ATS.

    The Chiefs are 5-0 SU at Oakland during the past five years.

    Chicago at Minnesota – The Bears outlasted the Vikings, 48-41, in Week 7.

    Minnesota is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS hosting the Bears.

    Jacksonville at Houston – The Jaguars edged the Texans, 30-27, in overtime

    during Week 4. The Texans are 5-1 ATS, 4-2 SU at home versus

    Jacksonville.

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 26 2008 12:55am
  7. 0 likes

    POINTWISE NEWSLETTER

    Write-ups to come later...

    COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

    1--Florida over FLORIDA STATE 47-14

    1--MEMPHIS over Tulane 41-17

    2--TEXAS TECH over Baylor 55-17

    3--Georgia Tech (+) over GEORGIA 26-27

    3--NEBRASKA over Colorado 55-27

    4--Tulsa over MARSHALL 41-20

    5--MISSISSIPPI over Mississippi State 37-13

    5--HAWAII over Washington State 55-14

    NFL KEY RELEASES

    2--Baltimore over CINCINNATI 30-10

    3--GREEN BAY over Carolina 30-17

    4--Kansas City (+) over OAKLAND 20-10

    4--SAN DIEGO over Atlanta 27-17

    5--Tennessee over DETROIT 30-10

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 27 2008 3:10am
  8. 0 likes

    RED SHEET ONLINE

    NOV 29, 2008, VOL 40, NO 14 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

    MEMPHIS 45 - Tulane 17 - (3:30 EST) -- Line opened at Memphis minus 13, and is still minus 13. Tigers

    represented our only miss on 9 Pointwise Key Releases LW, when they failed vs CentFla,

    despite holding the Knights to 10 FDs & <200 yds (42 in 2nd half). Thus, they need this one

    for bowl eligibility. Their ability to move the ball, is hardly reflected in their won/loss record,

    as their balanced attack ranks 23rd in running, 29th in passing, & 20th on overall offense.

    And as we wrote a week ago, the depleted Greenies present the perfect foils. In off allowing

    489 RYs, & are minus 126½ pts ATS in their last 8 outings. Lay the 2 TDs.

    RATING: MEMPHIS 89

    ALABAMA 33 - Auburn 10 - (3:30 - CBS) -- Line opened at Alabama minus 14½, and is now minus 14. Topranked

    Tide completes a perfect season with a win here, & altho they hardly need further

    incentive in this splendid rivalry, they nonetheless have the added motivation to break the

    Tigers stranglehold, having taken 6 straight from 'Bama. Simple fact: Auburn ranks 99th in

    the land on offense, while the Tide ranks 3rd in the nation on defense. This marks 'Bama's

    4th revenge play of the season, & thus far it is now only perfect on the field, but has covered

    all 3 previous setups. Frustrations taken out with some to spare.

    RATING: ALABAMA 89

    Florida 49 - FLORIDA STATE 14 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Florida minus 14½, and is now minus 15½. We

    had figured on a spread closer to 20 pts on this contest, so we gladly jump in with the

    smaller spot. The series host has been the way to go when these 2 meet, covering 15 of

    their last 20 meetings, but this Gator team is in a class of its own, with an incredible scoring

    edge of 299-63 in their last 6 lined games (since their loss to OleMiss) covering those halfdozen

    by a combined 127 pts. Check 346 RYs on SoCarolina's brilliant "D", with Tebow the

    perfect steady hand at the controls. Improved 'Noles are simply no match.

    RATING: FLORIDA 88

    NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27 - Miami-Florida 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 1½, and is now

    minus 2. The Wolfpack just keeps on doing it. Now 6 consecutive covers, and 7 straight

    payoffs in ACC play. Check back-to-back-to-back upsets in their last 3 games, with last

    week's rout of arch-rival UNC, resulting in not only keeping them alive in their bowl quest,

    but an amazing 43-pt cover. And check a yardage edge of 466-203 in that contest. Led by

    QB Wilson (13 TD passes the last 7 weeks), their confidence factor is peaking. 'Canes in

    off allowing most RYs in 64 years (472) in loss to GaTech, & failing in last 2 revengers.

    RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 88

    South Carolina 22 - CLEMSON 10 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 1½, and is now minus 1.

    Three covers in Tigers' last 4 games, after opening on a 5-game spread slide, so they are

    clicking on all cylinders, right? Hardly. Their supposedly potent offense, featuring the

    overland brilliance of Davis & Spiller, along with the overhead excellence of Harper, has

    never materialized, with Clemson ranking 91st in rushing, & 70th in total offense. Thus, a

    revenge call for the Gamecocks, whose solid "D" has had to live with that embarrassment

    vs Florida, for 2 weeks. Look for Spurrier & Co to gain their pound of flesh this wk.

    RATING: SOUTH CAROLINA 88

    Kansas City 23 - OAKLAND 13 - (4:15) -- Line opened at Oakland minus 3, and is still minus 3. Any time

    that the Raiders are installed as a chalk, it is normally a prudent play to jump in with their

    opponent. As a matter of fact, Oakland has been on the wrong end of a 9-0 spread run in

    that designation since the middle of the '05 season. They came thru nicely for us a week

    ago, in their 31-10 rout of the Broncos, while the Chiefs were being bombarded by Buffalo,

    54-31. But that combo only serves to give us fine value here. Remember, KC has covered

    its last 2 RGs by 10 & 14 pts, & the visitor stands at 11-1 ATS in this series.

    RATING: KANSAS CITY 88

    NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Oklahoma, USC, SoMiss, TexTech, Nevada - NFL: Ravens, Browns, Jaguars

    LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): BoiseSt (-17 to -20½); USC (-27 to -29½); EastCarolina

    (-13½ to -15½); Nebraska (-15 to -17); Missouri (-12 to -14); OregonSt (-2 to -3½); Hawaii (-27½ to -29) -

    NFL: Indianapolis (-3½ to -4½) - TIME CHANGES: BC/Maryland: now 3:30; NoCarolina/Duke: 3:30;

    TexasTech/Baylor: 3:30; Oklahoma/OklaSt: 8:00; SoCarolina/Clemson: 12:00 - NFL: Jets/Broncos: 4:15 -

    KEY INJURIES: Arkansas RB Smith (hamstring) doubtful; Ark QB Casey Dick (concussion) probable; BC

    QB Crane (collarbone) out; Duke QB Lewis (foot) ??; GaTech RB Dwyer (knee) probable; Kansas RB Sharp

    (ribs) ??; Kansas WR Meier (leg) ??; LSU QB Lee (knee) doubtful; Miss'ippi QB Snead (shoulder) probable;

    Nebraska QB Ganz (shoulder) probable; OklaSt RB Hunter (leg) probable; OregonSt Rb Jacquizz Rodgers

    (shoulder) doubtful; OregonSt QB Moevao (shoulder) ??; SMU WRs Robinson & Sanders (suspension) out;

    Vanderbilt RB Hawkins (foot) doubtful; WVa QB White (leg) probable - NFL: Carolina RB Stewart (foot)

    probable; Chicago TE Clark (knee) ??; Cincy WR Johnson (suspension) probable; Cleveland QB Quinn

    (finger) probable; Indianapolis S Sanders (knee) ??; NYGiant RB Jacobs (knee) ??; NYGiant WR Burress

    (hamstring) ??; Eagle QB McNabb (none) will start; SanDiego FB Tolbert (shoulder) ??; StLouis RB Jackson

    (thigh) probable; StLouis QB Bulger (hand) ??; Tenn DT Haynesworth (head) ??..

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 27 2008 3:11am
  9. 0 likes

    Kelso Sturgeon - Newsletter

    COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS

    Saturday, Nov. 29

    10 Units - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (-29½) 55 over Notre Dame - The truth is nothing can outrank Notre Dame's upset at the hands of a terrible Syracuse team last week but my figures say this one might come close for a variety of reasons. First of all, Notre Dame (6-5) is little more than an average football team and does not have the talent, speed, quickness, focus, tenacity or coaching to stay on the same field with USC (9-1) which has a lockdown defense and is still alive for a chance to play for the national championship. USC will hit the field fired up and ready to beat Notre Dame as badly as is possible. When I say by 55, I may be being conservative.

    5 Units - N.C. STATE (+2½) over Miami - N.C. State (5-6) comes into its final game playing its best football and as an underdog in its last three games has knocked off Duke, Wake Forest and North Carolina. The Wolf Pack is at the top of its game and is playing at a level that should produce another upset win. Miami (7-4) was crushed at Georgia Tech last week and in that lost showed it was nothing special.

    4 Units - CENTRAL FLORIDA (8½) by 14 over UAB - Central Florida (4-7) has been an up-and-down team all season because it is going through a major rebuilding program. It all came together for UCF last week in a 28-21 road upset at Memphis, and that followed a 30-14 upset of Marshall in Huntington. This team is playing good football right now and would like nothing better than to go out a winner before the home folks. UAB (3-8) looks like a sitting duck in this one.

    NFL BEST BETS

    5 Units - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-5) by 14 over Atlanta Falcons - Some things are simply not meant to be - and one of those things must be the San Diego Chargers (4-7) in 2008. This was a team that was one of the co-favorites to win the Super Bowl but has instead turned into one of the most snake-bitten teams in recent memory. Last week, the Chargers lost to Indianapolis 23-20 on a last-second field goal. The week before, it was an 11-10 loss at Pittsburgh. The seven Charger losses this season have come by a total of 28 points, or an average of 4.0 points per game. Still, San Diego comes to play and one can expect the Chargers to fire up again for this one against the surprising Atlanta Falcons (7-4). There is no question San Diego has the more talented team and my figures say they will at last get "lucky" against the Falcons, who are led by a rookie quarterback and that is always a hazard on the road.

    4 Units - NEW YORK JETS (-7½) by 13 over Denver Broncos - Some magic things are happening for the New York Jets (8-3) since they acquired veteran quarterback Brett Favre, who set a world of records at Green Bay. New York comes into this game after handing the Tennessee Titans their first loss of the season, 34-13, and just in case one thinks that road victory was a fluke, please note it was New York's fifth straight win and its seventh in its last eight games. The Jets have become a very good football team under the ability and leadership of Favre and they seem to have almost all the edges in this home game against the Denver Broncos (6-5), the most over-rated team in the NFL. If Denver could not muster any offense or defense in last week's 31-10 home loss to the hapless Oakland Raiders, why should one think they can do much against a dramatically better New York team? My money says they can't and won't as the Jets win their sixth in a row and their eight in their last nine games.

    3 Units - BUFFALO BILLS (-7) by 13 over San Francisco 49ers - Just call this a best bet play made on the basis of that old tried-and-true West Coast to East Coast rule. For the record, 11 times this season teams from the Pacific time zone have flown east to compete in the Eastern time zone and 11 times they have met defeat. That's 0-11, my friend, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome here. San Francisco (3-8) even has the added disadvantage of traveling cross country for the second straight weekend. Last week they were in Dallas and lost 35-22. Now they face the double whammy of going all the way and history says it will cost them the game. Buffalo (6-5) turned it all loose against a bad Kansas City team and won 54-31. If the Bills can play anywhere remotely as well as that this week, they should own the 49ers - much improved but

    simply in a bad spot.

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 27 2008 3:11am
  10. 0 likes

    CKO

    CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

    11 *ALABAMA over Auburn

    Late Score Forecast:

    *ALABAMA 34 - Auburn 6

    It’s been a while since Bama has had the resources to take out its frustrations on Iron Bowl rival Auburn, which

    has won last six meetings. For the first time in nearly a decade, however, Tide enters annual grudge match holding

    most of the cards. Nick Saban’s top-ranked, unbeaten crew has made a point of “taking names” this campaign,

    recording 3-0 spread mark in revenge games. And Saban’s “D” makes another success quite likely, as suffocating

    Bama stop unit (allowing just 12.5 ppg and 2.8 ypc) figures to overwhelm disjointed Tiger “O” that has struggled

    to locate any continuity TY following disastrous experiment with spread formation (and o.c. Franklin’s midseason

    dismissal). No such confusion with balanced Tide attack, piloted expertly by sr. QB Wilson (just 5 picks). And

    rivalry or not, can’t hesitate to buck Auburn bunch that’s covered only 2 of 10 on board in ‘08.

    10 *MISSISSIPPI over Mississippi State

    Late Score Forecast:

    *OLE MISS 31 - Mississippi State 7

    (Friday, November 28)

    Rebels have had the edge in the Egg Bowl in recent seasons, especially in Oxford, where they are 3-0-1 vs. the

    spread the last four meetings. Everyone in the SEC respects the Mississippi State defense. But the lack of QB

    dynamism and the infrequency of big gainers makes it extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to keep pace with some

    foes, or to play catch-up in games. Meanwhile, the arrival of Houston Nutt has been a boon to the Ole Miss attack,

    with the HC turning Cordera Eason into a dependable power back and soph Jevan Snead into a big-game QB who

    has led wins at Florida and LSU. Nutt’s change-of-pace “Wild Rebel” formation (previously the “Wild Hog” at

    Arkansas) is now widely copied in both college and the NFL. Ole Miss’ big, deep, and experienced DL a nice

    advantage vs. MSU’s strong ground game.

    10 UTEP over *East Carolina

    Late Score Forecast:

    UTEP 31 - *East Carolina 28

    (Friday, November 28)

    C-USA scouts report UTEP, motivated by a bowl bid with victory here, is not discouraged at all despite blowing DD

    lead in 42-37 loss at Houston last week. Miners, who suffered a late-season meltdown following a similarly heartbreaking

    loss to Rice in November year ago, won’t let that happen again. UTEP HC Mike Price says, “I’m not worried

    how we play the next game. We have a lot of character, a lot of heart. There is a lot of pride on this team.” And

    with banged-up East Carolina in celebratory mood after capturing its 1st-ever East title (Pirates only team with

    winning mark in that weak division), believe explosive, opportunistic Miners (35 ppg, +14 TO margin) avenge bitter

    OT loss to Pirates in ‘07. UTEP’s dynamic, soph QB Vittatoe (31 TDP, just 6 ints.), who has developed super rapport

    with 6-3 soph WR Adams (8 TDC last 3 games!), clearly outperforming ECU counterpart Pinkney, who was

    benched in sloppy (5 TOs) 17-13 squeaker at UAB. Plus, Pirates ground game offering little support (only 59 YR

    vs. Blazers). Miners 11-4-1 last 16 as visiting dog, while Holtz’s squad 1-8 last 9 vs. spread.

    10 *OREGON STATE over Oregon

    Late Score Forecast:

    *OREGON STATE 34 - Oregon 20

    This is the biggest “Civil War” match under Oregon State HC Mike Riley’s watch, and have to believe Beavers are

    capable of capturing their sixth straight in the series, and with it a trip to the Rose Bowl. OSU must play through

    some injuries, but QB Sean Canfield filled in for the injured Lyle Moevao against Arizona and threw for 224 yards

    and led the team on a flawless 2-minute-drill drive for the game-winning field goal. Moevao’s return isn’t a concern

    for Riley, and RB Quizz Rodgers, who left the Arizona game with a shoulder sprain was ably replaced by Ryan

    McCants, Jeremy Francis and James Rodgers, who combined for 158 YR and caught 10 passes for another 75.

    The Beavers have won 13 of their last 14 at Reser Stadium (10-3 vs. the points; 1 “off” game), and this tilt has been

    sold out for weeks. OSU has turned it on in the 2nd half of the last three seasons, logging a 19-6 spread mark in

    games played from October on since 2006.

    10 ATLANTA over *San Diego

    Late Score Forecast”

    ATLANTA 27 - *San Diego 24

    (Sunday, November 30)

    Falcons off a big win last week vs. Carolina. Buit now that they’re within a game of first place in the NFC South,

    look for no let-up despite their cross-country trip. More importantly, the fundamentals are in place for Atlanta,

    which runs the ball well with former Charger Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood, passes better than most

    expected TY with heady rookie QB Matt Ryan and much-improved WR Roddy White, and defends better than most

    expected under new HC Mike Smith, the former defensive coordinator of the Jags who is obviously missed TY in

    Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Charger offense, defense, and coaching staff have been afflicted this season with

    continuing issues they can’t seem to escape—injuries, suspensions, poor decisions, and unfortunate officials’

    calls. The value in this game lies with the dog.

    TOTALS: UNDER (41½) in the N.Y. Giants-Washington game—Three straight “unders” in the series; Redskins only two “overs” TY...OVER (39½) in the Pittsburgh-New England game—Steeler offense a little healthier after extra rest; Belichick praising QB Matt Cassel (two straight 400-yard games) for his attention to detail and rapid learning.

    NINE-RATED GAMES: CINCINNATI (-22) vs. Syracuse—Bearcats strong on defense and can lock up Big East title; Brian Kelly always a high-percentage pointspread coach...MEMPHIS (-13) vs. Tulane—Tigers need this one for bowl eligibility; QB Arkelon Hall returned last week, and he’s just in time to face injury-ripped Tulane...RICE (+3) vs. Houston—Owls’ veteran offense equipped to trade with potent Houston; Owls 9-3 as a home dog since QB Clement arrived...MIAMI (-7½) at St. Louis—Miami desperate to keep its playoff hopes alive; Ram defense not well-equipped to handle the varied Dolphin running game...KANSAS CITY (+3) at Oakland—Yes, Raiders’ offense actually found the end zone last week, but that doesn’t mean Oakland is ready to lay points, even to K.C. (which has won five straight in Oakland).

    phantom

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 27 2008 3:11am

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