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   Pro Football Trend Report

   CLEVELAND (3 - 6) at BUFFALO (5 - 4) - 11/17/2008, 8:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   BUFFALO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

   BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

   BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

   BUFFALO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   BUFFALO is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

   CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CINCINNATI (1 - 8 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 3) - 11/20/2008, 8:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CINCINNATI is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

   CINCINNATI is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   PITTSBURGH is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   PITTSBURGH is 4-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

   PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   HOUSTON (3 - 7) at CLEVELAND (3 - 6) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CLEVELAND is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons

   CLEVELAND is 1-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons

   2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   BUFFALO (5 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 9) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NY JETS (7 - 3) at TENNESSEE (10 - 0) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   TENNESSEE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games this season.

   TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.

   TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

   TENNESSEE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

   TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

   TENNESSEE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.

   TENNESSEE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.

   TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons

   TENNESSEE is 1-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NEW ENGLAND (6 - 4) at MIAMI (6 - 4) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NEW ENGLAND is 63-42 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

   NEW ENGLAND is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

   NEW ENGLAND is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

   NEW ENGLAND is 71-44 ATS (+22.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

   NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   MIAMI is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

   MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

   MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

   MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   MIAMI is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons

   NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 7) at DALLAS (6 - 4) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   TAMPA BAY (7 - 3) at DETROIT (0 - 10) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   DETROIT is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   PHILADELPHIA (5 - 4 - 1) at BALTIMORE (6 - 4) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CHICAGO (5 - 5) at ST LOUIS (2 - - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

   CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   MINNESOTA (5 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 6) - 11/23/2008, 1:00 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   JACKSONVILLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   CAROLINA (8 - 2) at ATLANTA (6 - 4) - 11/23/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   CAROLINA is 73-47 ATS (+21.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

   ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons

   4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   OAKLAND (2 - at DENVER (6 - 4) - 11/23/2008, 4:05 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   OAKLAND is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

   DENVER is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

   DENVER is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

   DENVER is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   DENVER is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

   DENVER is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.

   DENVER is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   DENVER is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   OAKLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons

   DENVER is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons

   3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   WASHINGTON (6 - 4) at SEATTLE (2 - - 11/23/2008, 4:15 PM

   There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

   SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NY GIANTS (9 - 1) at ARIZONA (7 - 3) - 11/23/2008, 4:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   NY GIANTS are 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

   NY GIANTS are 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

   NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.

   NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.

   NY GIANTS are 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

   NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.

   NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 6) - 11/23/2008, 8:15 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   INDIANAPOLIS is 32-53 ATS (-26.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

   SAN DIEGO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.

   SAN DIEGO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

   SAN DIEGO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons

   SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   GREEN BAY (5 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 5) - 11/24/2008, 8:30 PM

   Top Trends for this game.

   GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.

   GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

   NEW ORLEANS is 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

   NEW ORLEANS is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in home games since 1992.

   NEW ORLEANS is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.

   Head-to-Head Series History

   NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons

   NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons

   1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 17 2008 2:06pm
2. 0 likes

   KEVIN O’NEILL’S

   THE MAX

   The Maximum Profit Football Weekly

   • Volume 9 Issue 14 November 20-24, 2008 •

   College Football

   Thursday, November 20th, 2008

   @Georgia Tech (-3½) over Miami

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Pretty big game in the ACC, which is either parityladen

   or mediocre, depending on your point of view.

   Maryland’s win over North Carolina was helpful for

   both of these teams, as was Miami’s win over

   Virginia Tech, which also helped the Yellow Jackets.

   Miami wins out and they win the division. Georgia

   Tech has scenarios that could put them in the title

   game, and they all include a win here. So this is a

   big, big game, and it is a game where the unique

   style of Tech, with their hard to defend triple option

   attack, gives them an edge.

   Georgia Tech was a popular “play against” in their

   game against North Carolina. UNC had the week off

   to prep for the triple option and the final score of

   28-7 suggested that the Heels were the right side.

   But as I wrote in my writeup against UNC last week,

   “In fact, the Yellow Jackets all but gift-wrapped the

   game for the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech won rushing

   326-186, total yardage 423-314, and first downs 20-

   13, but lost turnovers 3-0, and that killed them.

   North Carolina used a pair of 4th quarter fumbles

   (one on a punt, one a running play) to turn 7-0 into

   21-0 on TD drives of 30 and 32 yards and then

   tacked one on after a failed onside kick for a 28-7

   win that saw only a single North Carolina scoring

   drove of more than 39 yards. Considering the

   scheduling advantage that UNC enjoyed heading into the

   game it really wasn’t a great performance by the Tar

   Heels, but to the betting public 28-7 looks like a whipping.”

   Early last week, Paul Johnson was apoplectic about Tech’s

   non-performance in that contest. He watched film with a

   couple of beat writers and even those non-football guys

   were amazed at the errors on every play. With that film to

   look at for 11 days, Johnson will have his players’ full

   attention this week. And the Hurricanes are quite a draw

   themselves. Winners of five straight, Miami doesn’t have a

   lot of offense but has been getting by on big plays. Typical

   of recent performances, they outlasted Virginia Tech

   Thursday night, despite gaining only 267 yards of offense

   on 4.1 yards per play. Georgia Tech’s D has a number of

   future NFLers and should be able to limit the Hurricanes.

   Thursday outing leaves Miami with less prep time than

   Tech. And Miami’s athleticism does not necessarily prepare

   them for the assignment football required to defend the

   triple option. ACC teams will defend the option better

   once they see it for a couple of years, but first time

   around, like right here, there will be times that Josh Nesbitt

   and company make the Hurricanes look foolish. ACC

   venues usually don’t supply a tremendous home field

   advantage, but this may be an instance where the Tech

   crowd is pretty pumped. Tech has the edge on both sides

   of the ball in our judgment. Georgia Tech by 10.

   Saturday, November 22nd, 2008

   @Ohio St. (-20½) over Michigan

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   Always a bit hesitant to lay big points in late season

   rivalry affairs, as the old adage “you can throw out

   the records when these two meet” seems to hold at

   least some merit. However, this is one where I

   think the superior team is going to flex its muscles in

   a big way. These late November contests are a true

   indicator of the culture of a program, and I’m not

   sure that Rich Rodriguez has established any kind of

   culture to this point at Michigan.

   We all knew there would be an adjustment period

   for the Maize and Blue to Rodriguez’s new offense,

   and we all expect big improvements next season.

   What is alarming though is that the play has often

   been uninspired on both sides of the ball this

   season. The players, especially the upperclassmen,

   seemingly have not bought into Rodriguez’s system

   and his methods. Several commentators and our

   very own Dave Fobare, a Michigan fan and expert,

   have commented that the team often looks dead on

   the sideline during games. Sure, this is the game

   you would expect the Wolverines play inspired ball,

   and I’m sure Rich Rod will play the rivalry angle and

   tell the troops all about pride and how this game is

   their national championship. However, at this point,

   off of yet another disappointing home loss last week

   against Northwestern, you have to wonder if the words are

   ringing hollow. Rodriguez is not Michigan Football the way

   Lloyd Carr, even when his team was not Top 10 quality,

   was Michigan football. You don’t get the feel that his

   players would run through a wall for him (yet), and that’s

   the type of blind faith that UM would need to be

   competitive here after the season they’ve had. Even if I

   am overemphasizing this angle and the Wolverines do

   somehow summon some confidence and emotion, what

   improvements have we seen in the quality of their play on

   either side of the ball that lend us to think they can hang in

   there with the best opponent that they’ve faced this year?

   This is a 3-8 club with 4 double-digit losses on the season.

   Jim Tressel would love nothing better than to hang a big

   number here for recruiting purposes and to prove that the

   Buckeyes, despite a couple of losses to two of the nation’s

   best teams, haven’t gone anywhere. If he is up in the

   second half, he’ll want to show Rodriguez and the

   Wolverines just how much ground they have to make up in

   this rivalry. No use giving you any stats here, instead just

   trust your eyes. The Buckeyes are much better than UM in

   every phase of the game. Terrell Pryor is the monster that

   recruiting experts told us he would be, and Beanie Wells is

   back to where he was pre-injury. Before this season, OSU

   was on a 12-4-1 ATS run as a home favorite of 17 or more,

   and Tressel will look to restore that killer instinct with a

   blowout here. OSU by 27.

   Florida St (+1) over @Maryland

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   These two teams garnered a lot of respect from

   bettors last week. Florida St was a popular choice

   over Boston College for most of the week, but when

   news broke that multiple player suspensions were

   looming, the Seminoles, or Criminoles in this case,

   lost some of their backers. There was a huge brawl

   at a frat house during the week, and as a result of

   the rumble, five players were suspended. And oddly

   enough all of them were wide receivers. But their

   suspensions really had little influence on the

   outcome of the actual game as Florida St still threw

   the ball for 212 yards. It was their lack of a running

   game (73 yards) that really did them in. The Seminoles

   played a terrible game all around, and as Bobby Bowden

   simply said afterward, “We got whipped.” BC won yardage

   357-285 with a huge 176-73 rushing edge, so Bowden’s

   simple statement basically sums up how the game played

   out. But another simple and obvious statement by

   Bowden, “It was a lousy week,” allows us to give Florida St

   a pass for the bad performance. We’ll just draw a line

   through the results, and expect the Seminoles to bounce

   back strong off the home loss.

   Maryland was in a great situational spot last week, and

   because of it, the Terps took some action. We’ve seen

   Maryland throw in a few clunkers throughout this season.

   But after those bad performances, the Terps have bounced

   back strong. And in fact, after Maryland’s 17-15 win over

   North Carolina, they are now a perfect 3-0 straight up and

   against the spread off a loss. But that last minute win over

   North Carolina really wasn’t all that impressive because

   North Carolina is a team that has been winning inside-out

   games all year. In fact, heading into the Maryland game,

   the Tar Heels had only out-yarded 3 of their 9 opponents

   and amazingly, they won all six of those other games in

   which they lost at the line of scrimmage. And before

   Maryland’s 19-play, 73-yard, nine-minute game-winning

   drive, the Terps were being out-yarded 275-263 by North

   Carolina.

   With Da’Rel Scott in the backfield, Maryland has a very

   good running game. But Scott will face a stiff test here

   against a formidable Florida St rush defense. The

   Seminoles allow a sliver over 100 yards per game on just

   3.3 yards per rush. After BC running back Montel Harris

   rumbled for 121 yards, it marked just the fourth time this

   season in which Florida St allowed more than 82 yards

   rushing in a game. Harris was running with a chip on his

   shoulder, “I wanted to show Florida State and their fans

   how I could play,” because the Florida native was not

   offered a scholarship by Florida St, the school he yearned

   to play for. The Seminoles have not allowed a back-toback

   100-yard rusher all season, and when Maryland has

   been held to less than 100 yards on the ground, they are

   0-2 losing by a combined score of 54-13. Florida St’s

   ground game was stymied by a strong BC rush defense,

   but the Seminoles should carve up Maryland’s 145 yards

   per game, 4 yards per rush defensive line. Off a loss,

   Florida St is 2-0 straight-up and against the spread this

   year winning those games by 18 and 14 points. With

   Bowden 42-24 against the spread off a loss in his coaching

   career, look for the Seminoles to bag a win in College Park.

   Florida St by 7.

   @Virginia (+2½) over Clemson

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Don’t be overly impressed with Clemson’s win over

   Duke. There’s no player in the ACC more important

   to his team than Duke QB Thaddeus Young. When

   Young went out in the first quarter with an ankle

   injury, that was essentially the ballgame. Zack

   Asack is the backup and he played like he used to as

   the starter, “leading” the Blue Devils to four

   consecutive three-and-outs, overthrowing and/or

   throwing behind open receivers, taking sacks, etc.,

   etc. Clifford Harris, the Dookies’ leading rusher,

   broke his arm on his fourth carry. Those absences

   put enormous pressure on the Duke defense and

   like so many teams that lose their offensive leader,

   the D couldn’t handle the short rests and additional

   workload. Virginia has a big edge here with a week

   to prepare. Al Groh has been around the block a

   time or two and game planning is not necessarily a

   strength of Clemson coach Dabo Swinney and his

   staff. Swinney has done a good job representing

   the school and maintaining some enthusiasm, but

   he’s a wide receivers coach and a recruiter, not a

   tactician. Look for UVA to be physical against a

   Clemson team that is more about finesse and speed.

   Prior to their week off, Virginia’s 4-1 turnover

   disadvantage spurred the Cavaliers to a 28-17 loss

   to Wake Forest despite a 307-273-yardage

   advantage. Workhorse back Peerman had a bland

   game, not bouncing back from his fumble in

   overtime against Miami (first of his career) and

   fumbling again (second of his career) and will

   benefit from the week off. Virginia needs a win to

   become bowl eligible, and a win here off a bye week

   is more attainable than next week’s game against

   Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. Last time Virginia had

   a bye week, they broke a two-game losing streak

   with a 31-0 stomping of Maryland as an underdog.

   Can they come off of this bye week by breaking a

   two-game losing streak against an inflated Clemson

   team? Clemson has two wins over 1-AA competition

   and only one of them counts, so they need to win

   both here and against South Carolina to qualify.

   Virginia has played mistake prone football the past

   couple of weeks after a nice run, but expect them to

   regroup here in a very winnable game. A rested

   Virginia team getting off to a fast start could do a lot

   of damage to an emotionally fragile, non-physical

   Clemson team. Virginia by 4.

   @Nevada (+6) over Boise State

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   Jeremy Avery rushed for a career-high 156

   yards and two touchdowns to help No. 9 Boise

   State keep alive its hopes of returning to a BCS

   bowl with a 45-10 win over Idaho on Saturday

   and also clinched at least a share of its sixth

   WAC title in the past seven seasons. To cash

   the big BCS check, the 10-0 Broncos need to

   sweep WAC rivals Nevada and Fresno State,

   and probably need undefeated Utah, No. 7 in

   the BCS standings, to lose.

   Have to respect what Boise has done on the

   road this season. Their 37-32 upset win as +10

   over Oregon looks better every week, and the

   Broncos are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS on the road

   this season. That crosses up the long time

   Broncos ATS personality as a strong home team

   (up to -28) and just mediocre away from their blue

   turf. But that strong road mark plays into the best

   tech material I have on this game, a 58-16 ATS

   system that has covered by an average of more

   than 10 points per game in the past and is 2-1 in

   2008. The last game this system nabbed was Texas

   Tech's epic 38-33 win over rival Texas.

   I also have a 166-100 ATS statistical matchup

   indicator that I've used in this space before which is

   triggered by the Wolfpack's strong ground game.

   This system is one of the rare few that has

   performed better out of sample than overall, a sure

   sign of something solid. Since Boise State is

   undefeated, a whole passel of anti-"perfect road

   team" systems pop up on the tech radar screen. A

   similar theme is contained in a negative 63-114 ATS

   contrary indicator that plays against certain road

   teams with good statistical profiles like Boise's.

   Boise had owned the Wolfpack until last season.

   From 1999 thru 2006 the Broncos won all 7

   meetings by an average score of about 50-7, with

   no victory margin smaller than 31 points. But in

   2007 Nevada's pistol offense finally grew to the

   point it could trouble Boise. They won their 8th in a

   row in this series 69-67 in four overtimes. The game

   set a record for most points in an NCAA Division I-A

   game since 1937, when official record keeping

   began. Much as they have this season, Nevada

   moved the ball well in both phases, but excelled on

   the ground, gaining 396 yards on 52 carries. Both

   teams should be able to move the ball today, but

   history tends to favor the stronger ground game,

   and that is the Wolfpack. The call here is for the

   home team to spring a major upset. Nevada by 1.

   @Arizona (-3) over Oregon St

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   Well aware that this is a big game for Oregon St and

   somewhat meaningless for Arizona. Oregon St, if

   they can win out, will win the Pac 10 title and earn a

   Rose Bowl invitation over USC because they beat the

   Trojans earlier this season. But is this Oregon St

   team really that good to be in this position anyway?

   Don’t think so. The Beavers have three losses on

   the year, but fortunately for them, two of them

   came in out of conference games at Penn St and at

   Utah. Two pretty good teams in their own right.

   Aside from their big win over USC as 24-point home

   underdogs, the Beavers conference wins have come

   against the worst and most beat-up teams in the

   Pac 10 like Washington St, Washington, Arizona St,

   and UCLA. Those four teams have a combined

   record of 9-32 on the year including a 6-23 mark

   inside conference play. So to say that the Beavers

   are a legit 7-3 team is very questionable, and the

   thinking here is that they are a bit overrated.

   Oregon St finally beat a winning team on Saturday

   in their “better than the final score looks” 34-21 win

   over California. The Beavers scored 21 points

   because of special teams and defense. They had an

   86-yard kick return for a touchdown, a 56-yard punt

   return to the California 2-yard line which set-up a

   one play, two yard touchdown drive, and a 25-yard

   interception return for a touchdown. And their other

   touchdown came on a 3-play drive after a 21-yard

   California punt. As you can see, the 13-point win

   over Cal was due to big plays, and not a dominating

   performance. And if their offense doesn’t score

   points in the desert on Saturday, the Beavers have

   no shot against Arizona.

   This is a big step-up in class for Oregon St as far as facing

   a potent offensive attack goes. You have to go all the way

   back to October 2nd when they faced Utah to see a decent

   offensive team they’ve played. In that game, they trailed

   20-9 with their only touchdown coming on an interception

   return. So in reality, it should have been a 20-3 lead.

   Forget their wins since that Utah loss because as we

   mentioned above, they’ve come against very weak teams.

   Arizona is not a weak team. The Wildcats have really

   caught on to offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes’ system

   this year. Dykes, former OC at Texas Tech, brought the

   same system to Tucson last year and he guided the Cats to

   the most passing yards in school history. But the reason

   Arizona is much better in ‘08 than last year’s 5-7 squad is

   the emergence of a productive running game. In 2007,

   they ran for just 77 yards per game while averaging 308

   yards through the air. There’s much more balance this

   year with 172 yards on the ground and 240 yards through

   the air per game. And that balance will be something

   Oregon St hasn’t seen in 7 weeks time. Arizona is 4-1

   straight-up (lost to USC 17-10) and a perfect 5-0 against

   the spread at home. Make it 5-1 straight up and 6-0 to the

   number when this game goes final. Arizona by 10.

   Mississippi (+5) over @LSU

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   In the very early 90’s I had a huge couple of

   years pounding non-conference teams playing

   sandwich games against major conference

   opponents. Sandwich games are when a team

   is a non-conference home favorite in between

   two conference games. It doesn’t really work

   any more, as offenses are much more efficient

   than they used to be, making it easier to cover

   against inferior competition even if a team is

   flat. LSU was in that very situation, and were

   down 31-3 to Troy State late in the third

   quarter, remarkably coming back for a 40-31

   win in a largely empty Tiger Stadium. Is an

   effort like that inspiring or tiring? I’m not sure

   (I’m sure Dave Fobare has data on it), but I do

   think that LSU is in vulnerable this week no

   matter what the tech on that kind of situation

   says.

   Facing Troy State’s conference mate Louisiana-

   Monroe, Ole’ Miss took care of business in a huge

   way, reaching the 59-0 final score less than a

   minute into the fourth quarter. Clearly this is a

   team that was much more interested in playing well

   and moving forward in a nothing game against a

   poor opponent. And in their first year under a new

   coach, you know they’re having better practices,

   more attentive meetings, as well as players and

   coaches who feel that they have a lot at stake. LSU

   can’t possibly feel the same way. They’re going

   from the national championship game to a far lesser

   situation.

   Ole’ Miss Coach Houston Nutt knows how to get an

   apparently outmanned team cranked up for a big

   game. In their first year under Nutt, Ole’ Miss is 3-

   0 against the spread as a road dog, losing late at

   Wake Forest 30-28 as a 7½-point dog. Winning

   outright at Florida 31-30 as a 22-point dog, and

   taking 12-point favorite Alabama to the wall in a 24-

   20 loss. Nutt is 20-11 as a road dog in his career,

   and nearly ruined LSU’s national championship

   dreams when his Arkansas team lost that multiple

   OT 50-48 game the day after Thanksgiving last year.

   So the coach has revenge and the team has revenge

   for Ole’ Miss’ 41-24 loss to LSU last year (UM won

   yardage 466-396). The Rebels had the week off

   before the Louisiana-Monroe game, and are fresher

   than an LSU team that is playing for the seventh

   week in a row. Look for an upset with a team on

   the rise that is good in this role vs. a team playing

   for lesser stakes than was expected a few short

   weeks ago. Ole’ Miss by 3.

   NFL

   Sunday, November 23rd, 2008

   Patriots (+2) over @Dolphins

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   Neither of these clubs has anything to be embarrassed

   about following their losses last week despite

   underperforming to the scoreboard. The Dolphins had to

   fight to beat Oakland on a late field goal despite

   dominating their game (382-186 total yards). It was the

   second straight week that Miami slogged to a home win

   over a bad team, the previous week they beat Seattle.

   The Patriots lost at home in overtime after a monster

   comeback. New England made a lot unforced errors early

   in that game and though they came back to tie the

   contest, they just couldn’t pull out the victory. New

   England outgained the Jets 511-375 but much of that was

   in comeback mode. Contributing to the Pats and ‘fins

   underperforming on the scoreboard last week was the fact

   that each gave up kickoffs for touchdowns.

   Patriots have gone from a juggernaut hated by all to a

   scrappy bunch that is fighting to overcome enormous

   personnel losses. If you can get over your hatred for

   Belichick you may even find the New Englanders to be

   borderline likeable. Tom Brady, Rodney Harrison, Laurence

   Maroney, are all guys who are out for the season but that

   just scratches the surface when it comes to injuries

   (Adalius Thomas is just the latest). Their loss on Thursday

   night put them back to 6-4 on the season, but in each of

   their past two losses, against the Colts and the Jets, you

   can make a case that New England played well. The Pats

   are 3-0 straight up and against the spread following those

   losses and that takes them to 15-2 against the spread after

   a loss since the start of the 2003 season. Using the

   “Wildcat” single wing formation, the Dolphins ran all over

   the Patriots 38-13 as Matt Cassel is much better now and

   the defense will be much more prepared. There’s no doubt

   that Belichick took this game as a personal challenge after

   being caught unprepared in the September contest. The

   Pats coaching staff has extra time to prepare for this one

   and the proud veteran players have proven they can react

   well to adversity. Youngsters like Jerrod Mayo and Matt

   Cassel are performing a lot better today than they were

   when Brady first went down.

   Coach Tony Sparano and his team are doing a fantastic job

   in Miami, but they have not played in a lot of big games

   where a good opponent was primed for a top performance.

   And make no mistake, this is an enormous game for New

   England, and one that Belichick, his staff, and the proud

   veterans on the defense have been pointing toward for a

   couple of months. Not only due to revenge, but because

   the Pats chances in the division would be greatly

   compromised if they lose this game, as the Dolphins would

   be one game ahead and would own the head-to-head

   tiebreaker due to a sweep of the series. With the strong

   record off a loss and having always adjusted well to an

   opponent when meeting them for the second time in a

   season, we’ll look for the Patriots to exact their revenge

   over the Fish today. Patriots by 6.

   Eagles (+1) over @Ravens

   Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo

   It’s hard to imagine that an NFL quarterback making

   over 5 million dollars per season doesn’t know the

   rules of an overtime game, especially one that has

   led his team to four different NFC Championship

   games and a Super Bowl. But that’s exactly the

   case with Donovan McNabb. In his post-game press

   conference, McNabb admitted that he did not know

   if neither team scored in overtime then the game

   ended as a tie. “I didn’t know that. I’ve never been

   part of a tie. I never even knew it was in the

   rulebook. I was looking forward to getting the

   opportunity to get out there and try to drive to win

   the game. But unfortunately with the rules, we

   settled with a tie.” Is he for real? And to think that

   we’re going to back McNabb and his Eagles here

   may be even more questionable.

   But it is what it is, right? McNabb should have much

   more incentive now to go out and redeem himself

   for the awful performance he put on in Cincinnati.

   He was terrible against the Bengals; 28 of 58

   (48.3%) while throwing three interceptions and

   fumbling once. His three picks led directly to 10

   Cincinnati points. While the Eagles offense

   sputtered, their defense played tremendously. The

   Eagles held the Bengals to only 282 yards of total

   offense on just 3.4 yards per play including 56 yards

   on the ground on a miniscule 1.9 yards per rush.

   They had an impressive eight sacks in the game,

   which brings their total for the year up to a league

   leading 36. And that’s the key part of this game.

   Defensive coordinator Jim Johnson will confuse the

   heck out of rookie quarterback Joe Flacco with his

   multiple looks. Veteran QB’s can’t handle Johnson’s

   pressure, so there’s no way a rookie with 10 games

   under his belt will. Last week against another

   formidable sack unit in the Giants, Flacco was able

   to avoid the sacks (just one). But the pressure

   forced him into throwing two costly interceptions.

   We can expect more sacks and picks from Flacco

   here.

   Baltimore’s 4-game win and cover streak came to a

   screeching halt in the Meadowlands. And of no surprise,

   the Ravens offense wasn’t putting up big points because

   they didn’t win the turnover battle. Instead, they lost it 2-

   1, and only put up 10 points. Over their four-game run,

   the Ravens scored 27 points or more in every game

   because they had an 8-2-turnover edge. Turnovers are

   not predictable, but considering the Eagles are off a 4

   turnover game and the Ravens good fortune of getting

   turnovers was snapped, we can make an educated guess

   that this will not be another turnover aided game for

   Baltimore. Rather, let’s go out on a limb and say the

   Eagles win the turnover battle because of the pressure

   their defense will put on quarterback Joe Flacco. As most

   rookies do around this time of the season, Flacco may have

   started to hit the wall last week. With Philadelphia off an

   embarrassing game, and Baltimore’s gift-wrapped winning

   streak over, look for the better team to get a comfortable

   win. Eagles by 7.

   Vikings (+2½) @Jaguars

   Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik

   Simply going to back the better team here in

   an underdog role in a game that they must

   have to stay in the playoff race. Jacksonville,

   for all intensive purposes, just lost their Super

   Bowl this past weekend. They had a chance to

   redeem themselves for a bad first half of the

   season and start a second half run. They were

   on their strong home field playing with revenge

   against the NFL’s best team (for my money it’s

   the Giants, but we are talking record-wise

   here). They had the Titans on the ropes,

   leading by 11 at the half, but were unable to

   put their division rival away. I expect a bit of a

   letdown here, as this team who’s been to the

   postseason 2 out of the past 3 seasons, is all

   bit eliminated this year.

   The Jags simply aren’t the same team this

   season, and much of their fall can be attributed

   to an offensive line that has been without 3

   starters and as many as 5 of the top 8 due to

   injury. This has led to a 35 yards per game

   decrease on offense, while their defense

   surprisingly ranks 25th in the league at 5.9

   yards per play, which continues a downward

   trend which started last season. They simply

   are a middle-of-the-pack team right now. The

   schedule has been tough overall, but

   remember in the 3 games preceding the

   Tennessee showdown, the Jaguars lost to

   Cleveland and Cincinnati before blowing out

   the hapless Lions.

   Minnesota is off of a 19-13 loss this past week

   to Tampa in a game where the well-rested

   Buccaneers simply took over in the second

   half. They have played a rugged schedule, and

   this is a make-or-break game for them to stay

   in playoff contention. They are as strong as

   any team in the league in the trenches, as

   indicated by their +1.4 net rushing average.

   They should dominate the Jags on both lines,

   and that alone merits a look when taking

   points. They will put the onus David Garrard

   and the Jaguars inconsistent wide receivers.

   The only area of concern here is their poor

   coverage units against the Jaguars’ return

   game led by Maurice Jones-Drew. If they can

   shore up that weakness here, they are the

   better team on both sides of the ball, and are

   catching Jacksonville at the right time.

   Minnesota by 4

   Panthers (+1½) over @Falcons

   Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare

   Both of these may be winning teams, but there

   certainly are some warts. Panthers come in off a 31-

   22 win over the hapless Lions as a 14-point favorite.

   It’s easy to forgive the non-cover, as winless dogs

   like Detroit are a very good betting proposition.

   Running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo

   Williams had a great day, combining for 250 yards

   and three TDs. But QB Jake Delhomme has a second

   lousy outing in a row against a Detroit secondary

   that is easily the NFL's worst. While six of the first

   seven starting QBs to face the Lions this season had

   career best performances, Delhomme could manage

   just 10 completions in 19 attempts and 98 yards.

   Over the last two weeks Delhomme has completed

   just 17 of 46 throws, and on the season has a 78

   quarterback rating that is the worst in his 11 year

   career.

   The Falcons managed to lose at home 24-20 to a

   Broncos team decimated by injury. Kevin doesn't

   give me enough space or the time to list all the

   wounded, but Denver has put sixteen players on the

   NFL injury list in the last three weeks. Of particular

   interest was the running game. In just the 10

   previous days Denver lost running backs Andre Hall,

   Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain and Selvin Young to

   various ailments. They were so desperate they resigned

   veteran Tatum Bell, who was cut by Lions in

   September. Yet the Falcons still gave up 121 rushing

   yards on just 26 carries to a collection of near

   nobodies led by Peyton Hillis, P.J. Pope, Tatum Bell.

   It gets worse. Spencer Larsen made history in his

   first NFL start. Larsen, a rookie, became the first

   Denver player to start on offense and defense in the

   same game when he opened Sunday as the team's

   middle linebacker and fullback.

   Both teams are members of the NFC South. The NFC South

   is arguably the league's best division. Its teams are a

   cumulative twelve games above 0.500 while the NFC East

   is thirteen games above break even. Winning teams in

   competitive divisions are usually poor betting favorites,

   according to a 180-99 ATS system I've been following since

   2002. Since the move to the current divisional format there

   are fewer plays, but the system is solid having rung up a

   26-16 record over the last 6+ seasons including 4-3 this

   season. I have one other tech system of note on this

   game. It’s a 175-97 ATS statistical indicator that is based

   on Carolina's rush defense. Over the past 6 years the NFL

   has become a league dominated by the passing game, yet

   this system has still managed to perform well, especially

   later in the campaign.

   From a QB perspective Carolina looks like an ugly play.

   Jake Delhomme might be in a slump, but he might also be

   heading downhill permanently. The Falcons' surprising

   rookie Matt Ryan has to be a welcome face in the NFL

   front offices after Atlanta's debacle with Micheal Vick. But

   on overall season numbers I still make the Panthers a small

   favorite, and the proven tech systems tilt to them as well.

   Carolina by 6.

   Colts @Chargers under 50½

   Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill

   We had the Colts over the total against the Texans

   on Sunday, but that had a lot more do to with the

   Texans than it did with the Colts. This matchup is

   much more likely to see a lower score and this total

   is quite high when you consider what kind of ball

   these clubs are playing right now. Indy was

   vulnerable against the run on Sunday, allowing 7.1

   yards per rush. But it was the combination of Steve

   Slaton’s insane speed and the fast turf of Indy that

   created that 70-yard TD run against them, and the

   Colts defense had allowed 3.3 yards rushing or less

   in 4 of their previous 5 games. And Indy’s D clearly

   was flat for this game. They expected to win, and

   they did. But it was just one of those weeks against

   a middling opponent that happens in the NFL. The

   Colts have had three games go into the 50’s, their

   two games against a Texans team that plays very

   high scoring game, and the Monday night game

   against Tennessee that reached a total of 52 thanks

   to three TD’s in the last five minutes of the game.

   Every other game has gone under 50 and with

   Sunday’s wake up call and the respect the Colts

   have for the Chargers D, there’s every reason to

   expect that Indy will do a better job defensively

   here. Offensively, the Colts succeeded Sunday

   because of the competition. In fact they were pretty

   sloppy offensively. They dropped six passes in the

   first half and Manning’s timing with his receivers is

   still off. This simply isn’t the high scoring Colts outfit

   of yore.

   And the Chargers aren’t playing a bunch of shootouts

   either. They’ve played only one over since September, and

   that game was the shootout in London against a Saints

   team that gets into shootouts with everyone. San Diego’s

   213 yards of offense on Sunday in Pittsburgh we can

   blame on the weather (though the Steelers went for 410),

   but it was the fourth time in the last seven games that

   “high powered” San Diego has failed to reach 300 yards of

   offense. Chargers passing game will struggle against a

   Colts defense that allows a high percentage of completions

   (69%, 31st in the league), but a low yards per pass attempt

   (6.7, 13th in the league). Remarkably, the Colts D that is

   31st in the league in completion percentage has allowed

   only 2 TD passes all season, while corralling 10

   interceptions. The Chargers pass defense has a similar

   “keep it in front of you” philosophy, as they rank 30th in

   completion percentage allowed and 16th in yards per pass

   attempt. That indicates they’re play to keep the receivers

   in front of them, which not only keeps the clock running,

   but makes it difficult to score in the red zone.

   This game will not have the 857 yards of offense that

   these two combined for in the playoffs last year. And that

   game saw only 52 points scored in the Chargers 28-24

   playoff victory. This almost has the feel of a divisional

   matchup, as this will be their third meeting in the past 53

   weeks. And that familiarity should improve their chances

   of slowing down each other, especially since both clubs are

   down substantially when it comes to offensive production.

   Ignore their reputations, look at what these teams are

   doing this season, and look to the under.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 18 2008 9:59pm
3. 0 likes

   ** NFL NEWSLETTERS **

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   NCAA FOOTBALL

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   posted by phantom

   Nov. 20 2008 1:35pm
4. 0 likes

   STATFOX

   11/23/2008 (199) NY JETS at (200) TENNESSEE

   Initial reaction has a lot to do with the games I pick each week, and

   while unfortunately, it hasn’t gone as well as usual this season, I refuse

   to abandon what has worked in the past. Frankly, I didn’t expect to see a

   price bigger than 4-1/2 points on this game between the unbeaten Titans

   and the Jets. After all, Tennessee has only been favored by more than

   that amount once in their 10-0 start. To me, it seems that oddsmakers

   have finally caught up. This is actually the first time this season when I

   feel HC Jeff Fisher’s team has been priced too high. This StatFox Super

   Situation is key to me: Play On - Underdogs or pick (NY JETS) - in a

   game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4

   YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 400 or

   more total yards in their previous game. (84-

   45 since 1983.) (65.1%, +34.5 units. Rating

   = 2*). The key part is that both teams are

   average statistically. The Jets have the better

   offense, a trait I like to look for in dogs. They

   also are building confidence each week and

   should be more than competitive here.

   Play: NY Jets +6

   11/23/2008 (201) NEW ENGLAND at (202) MIAMI

   False favorites tend to creep up a lot at

   this time of the year as the contenders and

   pretenders get separated. As it is, Miami

   is easily the worst team in the league to

   have seven or more wins at this point. They

   are only outscoring their opponents by

   1.2 PPG and are yielding a lofty 5.6 yards

   per play defensively. That isn’t the type of

   team you want to be backing consistently

   as a favorite. Now granted, I’m not a major

   fan of the Patriots this season either, but

   remember, they are the ones getting the points here. They are back

   by a nice revenge situation as well: Play On - Underdogs or pick (NEW

   ENGLAND) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, good

   team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (40-14

   over the last 10 seasons.) (74.1%, +24.6 units. Rating = 3*). Take the

   points, but don’t forget the money line as well.

   Play: New England +2.5

   11/23/2008 (213) CAROLINA at (214) ATLANTA

   Carolina is beginning to set itself apart from the rest of the NFC

   South pack and is legitimately staking claim to being the second best

   team in the conference. Atlanta meanwhile, proved it was in over its

   head as it lost to Denver. That type of damaging setback tends to

   carryover, especially when facing a bigger divisional game. Not only

   that, but oddmakers didn’t do the Falcons any favors, giving Carolina

   the motivation of being the perceived underdog. HC John Fox’s team

   has been a great road dog, going 50-31 ATS (20-7 ATS when getting

   7 points or less.) Atlanta has floundered versus good teams down the

   stretch: ATLANTA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing against a toplevel

   team (Win Pct. > 75%) in the second half of the season since 1992.

   I expect these patterns to continue.

   Play: Carolina +1

   11/23/2008 (219) NY GIANTS at (220) ARIZONA

   There is only one StatFox Super Situation

   that applies for Sunday’s big Arizona-NY

   Giants showdown and it backs the host

   Cardinals: Play Against - Road favorites

   (NY GIANTS) - off a home win by 10 points

   or more against opponent off a road win.

   (68-34 since 1983.) (66.7%, +30.6 units.

   Rating = 2*). It isn’t too often when you

   can get a team that is unbeaten at home

   and outscoring teams by 14 PPG as an

   underdog in the NFL. Arizona has shown

   the ability to move the football through the

   air on anybody and everybody. There is no

   reason to think that QB Kurt Warner & Co.

   will be out of this game at any point. This

   looks to be one that if you take Arizona, you

   can only win or push. Perhaps buying the

   hook is in order if you aren’t comfortable

   fading the league’s best team traveling

   across country.

   Play: Arizona +3

   11/24/2008 (225) GREEN BAY at (226) NEW ORLEANS

   I brought up the term “false favorites” before. New Orleans could

   easily apply in this situation, as teams with defenses as poor as the

   Saints never make for good chalk. HC Sean Payton’s team is giving up

   a healthy 24.9 PPG and 5.7 YPP. The Packers have thrived on such

   teams under Mike McCarthy: McCarthy is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. bad

   defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of

   GREEN BAY. The average score was GREEN BAY 26.7, OPPONENT

   14.2 - (Rating = 1*). Green Bay showed its makeup last week in routing

   Chicago, as McCarthy was able to instill a sense of urgency after losses

   to Tennessee and Minnesota. With a +6.4 Outplay Factor Rating, Green

   Bay is climbing the charts quickly. Meanwhile, the Saints are in mediocre

   land at +0.6. That tells me the wrong club is favored. Barring turnover

   concerns, the Packers should get it done here.

   Play: Green Bay +2.5

   TOP STATFOX POWER RATING EDGES:

   1. NEW ENGLAND (+2.5) over MIAMI 16

   2. GREEN BAY (+3) over NEW ORLEANS 13

   3. JACKSONVILLE (-1.5) over MINNESOTA 6.5

   TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:

   1. GREEN BAY (+3) over NEW ORLEANS 9

   2. TAMPA BAY (-9) over DETROIT 7

   3. PITTSBURGH (-11) over CINCINNATI 5

   TOP NFL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 12 (ATS & Total)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (199) NY JETS vs. (200) TENNESSEE

   Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY JETS) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against

   opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins. (49-15 since 1983.) (76.6%, +32.5 units. Rating=4*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (4-2). L5 Seasons: (11-2). L10: (21-9).

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play On - Road teams (CINCINNATI, OAKLAND) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, terrible team,

   winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season. (23-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units.

   Rating=3*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (1-0). L3 Seasons: (15-1). L10 Seasons: (38-21). Since 1983: (101-73).

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (NY JETS, MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two

   average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents) after 8+ games, after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total

   yards last game. (28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating=3*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (0-0). L3 Seasons: (14-1). L10 Seasons: (43-18). Since 1983: (109-82).

   TOP NFL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 12 (ATS & Total)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (219) NY GIANTS vs. (220) ARIZONA

   Tom Coughlin is 12-0 ATS (+12 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game as the coach

   of NY GIANTS. The average score was Coughlin 25.4, OPPONENT 15.7 - (Rating = 6*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (199) NY JETS vs. (200) TENNESSEE

   TENNESSEE is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in all games this season. The average score was TENNESSEE 24.4, OPPONENT

   13.1 - (Rating = 5*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (215) OAKLAND vs. (216) DENVER

   DENVER is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. The

   average score was DENVER 20.9, OPPONENT 29.2 - (Rating = 4*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (209) CHICAGO vs. (210) ST LOUIS

   CHICAGO is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. in the

   second half of the season since 1992. The average score was CHICAGO 9.1, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 3*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (205) TAMPA BAY vs. (206) DETROIT

   DETROIT is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average

   score was DETROIT 16.8, OPPONENT 27 - (Rating = 4*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (221) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (222) SAN DIEGO

   SAN DIEGO is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the

   season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SAN DIEGO 25.9, OPPONENT 14.4 - (Rating = 4*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (201) NEW ENGLAND vs. (202) MIAMI

   MIAMI is 33-11 UNDER (+20.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the

   season since 1992. The average score was MIAMI 16.9, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 3*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (215) OAKLAND vs. (216) DENVER

   DENVER is 28-7 OVER (+20.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992. The

   average score was DENVER 29.9, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 3*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (219) NY GIANTS vs. (220) ARIZONA

   Tom Coughlin is 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game as the coach of NY

   GIANTS. The average score was Coughlin 23.8, OPPONENT 18.7 - (Rating = 4*)

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (205) TAMPA BAY vs. (206) DETROIT

   DETROIT is 12-4 ATS vs. TAMPA BAY since 1996.

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (221) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (222) SAN DIEGO

   SAN DIEGO is 9-4 SU & 10-3 ATS vs. INDIANAPOLIS since 1992.

   Sunday, 11/16/2008 (197) BUFFALO at (198) KANSAS CITY

   The UNDER is 6-0 in the L6 games between KANSAS CITY & BUFFALO.

   Sunday, 11/16/2008 (217) WASHINGTON vs. (218) SEATTLE

   The HOME TEAM is 7-1 SU & ATS in WASHINGTON-SEATTLE series since ‘95.

   Sunday, 11/23/2008 (219) NY GIANTS vs. (220) ARIZONA

   The UNDER is 6-1 in the L7 games between ARIZONA & NY GIANTS.

   __________________

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 20 2008 1:36pm
5. 0 likes

   STATFOX

   11/19/2008 (103) BALL ST at (104) C MICHIGAN

   Being a staunch critic of their political little system, I hate thinking

   about the smirks on the BCS brass’ faces this week as they

   consider the possibilities for all three potential busters going

   down. Ball State, Boise State, and Utah all face their toughest

   tests of the season this weekend, and two of the plays will be

   listed among my Best Bets. The Cardinals are on the road

   taking on perennial MAC power Central Michigan, who has won

   two straight conference titles. The Chippewas are unbeaten in

   league play again this season and come off a gritty 33-30 win

   at Northern Illinois in tough weather conditions. They got stud

   QB Dan LeFevour back for that game and gained a balanced

   430-yards of offense. Overall, in the last

   four games, CMU is averaging 469.5

   YPG on offense. They scored 58 points

   in this same matchup a year ago. Add

   all that up and you have a very capable

   underdog to back in this game.

   Play: C Michigan +6.5

   11/22/2008 (123) BOSTON COLLEGE at (124) WAKE FOREST

   For anyone taking notice, the ACC has

   become a great league in which to back

   underdogs. This is simply because the

   teams aren’t good, and only real strong

   teams prove capable of consistently

   covering favorite lines. In this BC-Wake

   contest, I’m having a hard time coming

   up with a reason as to why the Demon

   Deacons are favored. BC has the better

   record, the better offensive numbers, the

   better stats on the defensive side of the

   ball, and comes off an impressive upset

   win at Florida State. Wake is scoring

   just 16.0 PPG in conference play this year and hasn’t surpassed

   the 350-yard mark on offense since Week 1. The Eagles are

   playing very well defensively and forcing turnovers as well. With

   BC having a +8.4 Outplay Factor Rating, and Wake a +5.3, the

   wrong team seems to be favored.

   Play: Boston College +1.5

   11/22/2008 (133) NC STATE at (134) N CAROLINA

   It’s really admirable that NC State has been able to beat the

   number in six straight ACC games, but these ATS wins have come

   against teams not capable of covering favorite spreads. Finally

   the Wolfpack meet up with a team that can put some points on

   the board. The result figures to be a relatively comfortable win

   for North Carolina. With the 6-0 ATS conference record, and the

   perceived rivalry aspect surrounding this game, you probably

   won’t find too many other people out there projecting a blowout.

   However, I have numbers to support it. First, the StatFox Outplay

   Factor Ratings: UNC +14.3, NC State -3.8. In other words, these

   teams are world’s apart. Adding home field advantage on, it’s

   saying that HC Butch Davis’ team should be favored by 22 points.

   Carolina has the way better defense too, yielding over 9 PPG

   less on the season. Throw in the motivation of wanting to whip a

   state rival, and all the pieces are there for the “hidden blowout”.

   Play: N Carolina -11.5

   11/22/2008 (155) MICHIGAN ST at (156) PENN ST

   Historically, Michigan State has been

   a team that has worn out down the

   stretch. This season has not been

   any different, although a favorable

   schedule and the win the Spartans

   stole against Wisconsin has masked

   the problems. Well, I think it will catch

   up to them this week, as the schedule

   is no longer favorable. In fact, HC Mark

   Dantonio’s makes the toughest trek in

   the Big Ten this season, on the road at

   Penn State, hoping to keep the Nittany

   Lions from wrapping up the conference

   title. The Spartans’ ground game has

   disappeared, as they have averaged

   just 101.5 RYPG over the last six after

   dominating prior. Meanwhile, Penn

   State has crushed foes at home this

   season by an average of 33.2 PPG. It

   is insane to fade that.

   Play: Penn St -14.5

   11/22/2008 (171) BYU at (172) UTAH

   This is a situation where the enormity of the game doesn’t seem

   to fit the pointspread. Just like BYU was strangely favored at TCU

   earlier in the year, and TCU was favored at Utah later, I think

   oddsmakers have overreacted again. Utah is not 6-points better

   than BYU, and series history has shown that laying the points

   with the favorite in the Holy War has been a losing proposition.

   In fact, the underdog has covered 13 of the last 15 meetings

   between these teams. Let’s not forget, the Cougars have just one

   loss themselves and are 32-5 SU in their L37 gams overall. Plus,

   the PPG differentials of these teams are very similar. I just don’t

   see any way Utah wins easily.

   Play: BYU +6

   TOP STATFOX POWER RATING

   EDGES:

   1. RUTGERS (-17.5) over ARMY 12

   2. TROY (-7) over LA LAFAYETTE 7

   3. PENN ST (-14) over MICHIGAN ST 7

   4. OHIO ST (-19) over MICHIGAN 7

   5. UCF (+3) over MEMPHIS 6

   6. HOUSTON (-14) over UTEP 6

   TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:

   1. N CAROLINA (-13) over NC STATE 9

   2. TOLEDO (-3) over MIAMI OHIO 9

   3. TEMPLE (-10.5) over E MICHIGAN 8.5

   4. CALIFORNIA (-9.5) over STANFORD 7.5

   5. PENN ST (-14) over MICHIGAN ST 7

   6. BALL ST (-6) over C MICHIGAN 7

   Top College Football Systems, Trends and Head-to-Head Data

   TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS - WEEK 13 (ATS & Total)

   Friday, 11/21/2008 (111) BUFFALO vs. (112) BOWLING GREEN

   Play Against - Road underdogs (BUFFALO) - off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival

   against opponent off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival. (39-9 since 1992.) (81.2%, +29.1units. Rating=4*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (4-0). L3 Seasons: (10-0). L5 Seasons: (16-0). L10 Seasons: (28-5).

   MULTIPLE GAMES

   Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BOISE ST, UTAH) - off a road blowout win by 28 points or more, undefeated

   on the season. (27-4 since 1992.) (87.1%, +22.6 units. Rating=4*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (2-0). L3 Seasons: (6-0). L5 Seasons: (9-0). L10 Seasons: (19-1).

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (115) E MICHIGAN vs. (116) TEMPLE

   Play On - Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEMPLE) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent

   after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. (30-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (83.3%, +23.4 units.Rating=4*)

   The situation’s record this season is: (4-1). L3 Seasons: (8-3). L5 Seasons: (20-4). Since 1992: (38-15).

   TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - WEEK 13 (ATS & Total)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (145) MARSHALL vs. (146) RICE

   RICE is 13-0 ATS (+13 Units) in home games vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game since 1992.

   The average score was RICE 36.4, OPPONENT 22.6 - (Rating = 6*)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (143) COLORADO ST vs. (144) WYOMING

   WYOMING is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was

   WYOMING 13.1, OPPONENT 30 - (Rating = 5*)

   Friday, 11/21/2008 (113) FRESNO ST vs. (114) SAN JOSE ST

   Dick Tomey is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.75 rushing yards/carry as the

   coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average score was Tomey 24.9, OPPONENT 17.6 - (Rating = 5*)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (157) CLEMSON vs. (158) VIRGINIA

   Al Groh is 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse as the coach of VIRGINIA. The

   average score was Groh 22.9, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 5*)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (183) OLE MISS vs. (184) LSU

   Les Miles is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of LSU.

   The average score was Miles 30.2, OPPONENT 27.2 - (Rating = 5*)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (137) TENNESSEE vs. (138) VANDERBILT

   TENNESSEE is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season. The average score was TENNESSEE

   15.1, OPPONENT 17.1 - (Rating = 5*)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (165) BOISE ST vs. (166) NEVADA

   BOISE ST is 50-16 ATS (+32.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST

   43.7, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 4*)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (159) AIR FORCE vs. (160) TCU

   AIR FORCE is 3-21 ATS (-20.1 Units) off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival since 1992. The average score

   was AIR FORCE 25.5, OPPONENT 31.3 - (Rating = 4*)

   Friday, 11/21/2008 (113) FRESNO ST vs. (114) SAN JOSE ST

   Dick Tomey is 25-6 UNDER (+18.4 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of SAN JOSE ST. The average

   score was Tomey 22.7, OPPONENT 25.5 - (Rating = 4*)

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (149) WASHINGTON vs. (150) WASHINGTON ST.

   The UNDERDOG is 13-2 ATS in WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON ST series since ‘93.

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (175) OREGON ST. vs. (176) ARIZONA

   The FAVORITE is 11-1 SU & ATS in OREGON ST-ARIZONA series since ‘95.

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (131) FLORIDA ST. vs. (132) MARYLAND

   The HOME TEAM is 11-5 SU & 13-3 ATS in FLORIDA ST-MARYLAND series since ‘92.

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (173) IOWA vs. (174) MINNESOTA

   IOWA is 11-4 SU & 12-3 ATS vs. MINNESOTA since 1993.

   Saturday, 11/22/2008 (183) OLE MISS vs. (184) LSU

   The UNDERDOG is 10-2 ATS in OLE MISS-LSU series since ‘96.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 20 2008 1:51pm
6. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

   N. Y. GIANTS-arizona "over"

   There are a handful of enduring "totals" trends in the NFL, few

   more compelling than Arizona's "over" tendencies. And that's

   how we're going to look once more with the Cardinals when they

   play host to the New York Giants Sunday at Glendale. Arizona

   is "over" its first four at home this season, and now "over" its last

   6 at U of Phoenix Stadium. The Cards are also "over" 23-9 their

   last 32 games on the board since late in the '06 campaign.

   Meanwhile, the Giants are also getting into the act, "over" 3 of their

   first 4 on the road this season.

   CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH (Thursday, November 20)... Steelers

   have won and covered last 4 and 8 of last 10 meetings, including 38-

   10 romp at Paul Brown Stadium October 19. Cincy “under” 5-11 last

   16 on board, but Steel “over” 44-16-1 last 61 at Heinz Field. Tech

   edge-“Over” and slight to Steelers, based on “totals” and

   series trends.

   HOUSTON at CLEVELAND...Texans “over” 9-1 TY, now “over” 22-

   8-1 last 31 on board. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

   BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY...Chiefs “over” 9-2 last 11 at Arrowhead.

   Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

   N.Y. JETS at TENNESSEE...Titans 9-1 vs. line TY, but have failed

   to cover at home last 2 years vs. Jets. Favre has covered last 3 in

   ‘08, and Jets “over” last 4 TY. Tech edge-slight to “over”, based

   on recent “totals” trends.

   NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI...Belichick 11-5 vs. line last 16 as visitor,

   also 6-2 last 8 as dog. Miami “under” 5-1 as host TY, while Belichick

   “under” 11-5-1 last 17 since mid ‘07. Tech edge-Patriots and

   “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

   SAN FRANCISCO at DALLAS...49ers “over” 5 of last 6, and “over”

   first 3 under Singletary. Dallas “over” 5-2 last 7 TY. Wade Phillips

   only 1-5 vs. line last 6 as home chalk since late ‘07. Tech edge-

   “Over”, based on “totals” trends.

   TAMPA BAY at DETROIT...Lions 0-4 SU and vs. line at Ford Field,

   now 1-7 vs. spread last 8 as host since mid ‘07. Lions also “over”

   14-4-1 last 19 on board. Gruden only 1-6 as visiting chalk since ‘05.

   Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and

   Lions’ home trends.

   PHILADELPHIA at BALTIMORE...If Andy Reid getting points, note

   his 8-1 spread mark as road dog since ‘06. Birds “over” 7-3 last 10

   as visitor, Ravens “over” 11-5-1 since mid ‘07. Tech edge-“Over”,

   based on “totals” trends.

   CHICAGO at ST. LOUIS...Rams only 4-13 vs. line last 17 at Edward

   Jones Dome, and “over” 8-2 last 10 as host. Bears, however, “under”

   5-0-1 last 6 away. Lovie just 5-12 last 17 as chalk. Tech edge-“Over”

   and slight to Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.

   MINNESOTA at JACKSONVILLE...Jags “over” 17-5 last 22 since

   early ‘07 (“over” 5-4 TY). Jags have also failed to cover their first

   4 as host TY. Vikes “over” 4 of first 5 on road TY. Tech edge-“Over”

   and slight to Vikings, based on “totals” and team trends.

   CAROLINA at ATLANTA...Panthers 5-2 vs. line last 7 in series and

   3-0-1 vs. number last 4 at Georgia Dome. Tech edge-slight to

   Panthers, based on series trends.

   OAKLAND at DENVER...Raiders had covered 4 straight in series

   prior to Broncos’ lopsided 41-14 win in opener. Oakland “over” 8-5

   on road since LY. Raiders also 30-60-1 vs. number since Super Bowl

   XXXVII. Denver “over” 20-9-1 last 30 overall. Shan no covers first 4 as home chalk in ‘08, however. Tech edge-“Over” and slight

   to Broncos, based on “totals” and team trends.

   WASHINGTON at SEATTLE...Zorn has covered his last 3 on road

   TY, and Skins “under” 11-4-1 their last 16 reg.-season games. Tech

   edge-Skins and “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

   NY GIANTS at ARIZONA...Whisenhunt 3-0 as home dog since

   taking over at Arizona LY, and Cards now “over” 13-5 their last 18

   on board. Giants, however, are 16-3 vs. number their last 19 away

   from Meadowlands. Tech edge-“Over”, based on Cards’

   “totals” trends.

   INDIANAPOLIS at SAN DIEGO...Bolts have won last 3 and covered

   last 4 in series. If Dungy a dog note 10-6 spread mark in role since

   ‘03. Colts also “over” 6-2 last 8 away. Tech edge-“Over”, based

   on “totals” trends.

   GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (Monday, November 24)...Saints

   “over” 19-9 last 28 since late ‘06, and 3-1 as Superdome chalk TY

   after subpar 3-11 mark in role past two seasons. Pack “over” 12-

   4 last 14 on road. Pack also 7-1 last 8 as road dog since McCarthy

   arrived in ‘06. Tech edge-“Over” and Packers, based on

   “totals” and team trends

   SYSTEMS SPOTLIGHT

   NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

   NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-

   CAROLINA* over Atlanta#, INDIANAPOLIS

   over San Diego, NEW ENGLAND* over Miami, PHILADELPHIA*

   over Baltimore, GREEN BAY over New Orleans (11/24).

   FAMILIARITY-

   ATLANTA# over Carolina, MIAMI# over New England.

   NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-No plays this week.

   NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-No plays this week.

   SCORE 40 LETDOWN-No plays this week.

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 20 2008 1:52pm
7. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA

   TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

   N.C. STATE

   Although this weekend is not quite as chock full of rivalry

   games as it used to be (many of those battles have now been

   moved to the weekend following Thanksgiving), there are still

   plenty of traditional battles on tap this Saturday. And on Tobacco

   Road, one of our featured Rivalry Dogs is hot North Carolina

   State, which makes the short drive to Chapel Hill for its annual

   battle with bitter rival North Carolina. The Wolfpack has been

   surging lately, covering its last 5 and 7 of its last 8 outings, and is

   always a play in the College Coach as Underdog system with

   HC Tom O’Brien, whose teams as BC and NCS are now 23-9 vs.

   the spread their last 32 as a dog.

   VANDERBILT

   It’s not like the old days as far as Tennessee is concerned. The

   season can’t end fast enough for the disappointed Vols, who

   must travel to Nashville for a Saturday battle vs. rejuvenated

   instate foe Vanderbilt. UT is going nowhere (and not to a bowl,

   either), having dropped its last three vs. the number, while

   recording a very poor -23.50 “AFS” (“Away From Spread”)

   number its last two games. The Commodores have covered 3 of

   the last 4 series meetings vs. better Vol sides, and also qualify as

   a featured Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week.

   RICE

   It might seem as if the role of favorite is an uncomfortable one

   for Rice, but that’s not necessarily the case. The underrated

   Owls have covered 4 of their 5 chances as chalk this season, and

   get another chance to do so Saturday at home when CUSA foe

   Marshall pays a visit to Houston. There’s no reason to fear the

   Herd away from its Huntington, West Virginia home, as Marshall

   stands a poor 6-21-1 vs. the number its last 28 on the road. Note

   that Rice is 11-4 vs. the number its last 15 as host, and qualifies as

   a featured Rested Home Winner this week.

   UTEP

   One of the most enduring team trends in CUSA has been

   UTEP’s success as a road underdog, a role in which the Miners

   find themselves Saturday at Robertson Stadium for a crucial

   conference clash vs. Houston. UTEP stands a solid 10-4-1 vs. the

   line its last 15 as a visiting dog, qualifying it as a featured

   recommendation this week with HC Mike Price in the College

   Coach as Underdog system.

   MIAMI-FLORIDA at GEORGIA TECH (Thursday, November

   20)...GT has won and covered last 3 meetings, courtesy Chan. Paul

   Johnson 3-1 vs. line at home TY, 6-2 vs. line overall. Canes have 3

   straight covers as visitor after 3-10 previous 13 vs. line away from

   home. Tech edge-slight to GT, based on series trends.

   MIAMI-OHIO at TOLEDO (Friday, November 21)...RedHawks

   have fared okay on road TY, covering 3 of 5 away, now 9-3 last 12

   as road dog (3-2 TY). But Miami just 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board. Tech

   edge-slight to Miami-O, based on extended trends.

   BUFFALO at BOWLING GREEN (Friday, November 21)...BGSU

   now on uptick with wins last 2 and covers last 3 in ‘08,but just 3-12

   vs. line last 15 as host. Meanwhile, Turner Gill has covered 6 straight

   as road dog! Tech edge-Buffalo, based on team trends.

   FRESNO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE (Friday, November

   21)...Fresno no covers last 9 TY, now 9-27-1 last 37 on board! Home

   team has covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 in series. Tech edge-SJSU,

   based on series and team trends.

   EASTERN MICHIGAN at TEMPLE...EMU only 2-7 vs. line TY, now

   6-15 last 21 on board. Temple yet to lose vs. line at home TY (1-0-

   2) and now 8-3-2 vs. spread at Linc since ‘06. Tech edge-Temple,

   based on team trends.

   ARMY at RUTGERS...Rutgers has won 4 straight and covered last

   6, while Army 6-1 vs. line last 7 on board. Stan Brock has covered

   all 4 road games TY, while Rutgers had failed to cover its first 3 as

   chalk before finally getting over the hump vs. Syracuse. Tech edge-

   Army, based on recent trends.

   ILLINOIS at NORTHWESTERN...NU has covered 6 of last 8 in

   series, but failed to do so LY in 41-22 Illini romp. If Wildcats chalk, note

   2-1 spread mark in role TY at home after 0-5 performance previous two

   seasons. Tech edge-slight to NU, based on extended trends.

   PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI...Series edge to ‘Stache, who has

   won and covered last 3 vs. Cincy (only one of those vs. Brian Kelly,

   however). ‘Stache has also won and covered last 3 on road, two

   of those as dog. ‘Stache also 7-2 last 9 as dog. Bearcats only 2-3

   as chalk TY, though Brian Kelly still 13-7 vs. spread with Cincy and

   28-10-2 last 40 vs. number overall at CMU & Cincy. Tech edge-Pitt,

   based on series and recent team trends.

   BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST...Wake had covered 4

   straight in series prior to BC’s 38-28 win LY. Deacs have also

   covered 2 of last 3 as Winston-Salem chalk and now 5-4 vs. line as

   home favorite since LY (had failed to cover 13 straight in role prior

   to turnaround in home chalk fortunes LY!). Tech edge-slight to

   Wake, based on team trends.

   INDIANA at PURDUE...Old Oaken Bucket! Home team has covered

   8 of last 10 in series, although IU covered its last trip to Ross-Ade.

   Hoosiers 2-8 vs. line TY. Tiller only 8-15 vs. line at home since ‘05

   (2-3 TY). Tiller finale at Purdue. Tech edge-Purdue, based on

   IU negatives.

   MICHIGAN at OHIO STATE...Tressel won 6 of 7 SU vs. Lloyd Carr

   (5-2 vs. line). Road team has covered last 3 in series, but Wolverines

   only 1-3 vs. line away TY and 2-9 against spread overall. Buckeyes

   no covers first 5 on line at horseshoe TY and no covers last 6 on board

   as host! Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on recent OSU

   home woes.

   DUKE at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer has won last 4 handily (all by

   24 or more) vs. Duke and covered last 3 in series. Tech edge-

   Beamer, based on series trends.

   FLORIDA STATE at MARYLAND...Ralph had covered 3 straight in

   series prior to FSU’s 24-16 win and cover LY. Terps, however, are

   6-0 SU (4-1 vs. line, one NL) at College Park TY. Noles 1-2 vs. line

   away TY, 4-8 last 12 in role. Tech edge-Maryland, based on

   team trends.

   NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...Heels had covered 4 straight

   in series prior to 31-27 loss at nearly Raleigh LY. Butch has won and

   covered last 2 as home chalk TY after Heels were 3-10 vs. line in 13

   previous tries as Chapel Hill favorite. O’Brien, however, has covered

   last 5 and 7 of last 8 TY, is 12-4 overall vs. number last 16 on board

   and 23-9 last 32 as dog at BCS & NCS. Tech edge-NCS, based

   on recent O’Brien marks.

   IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE...Home team has won and

   covered by DD margins the past three meetings. ISU has dropped last

   9 SU in ‘08 after opening with pair of wins TY. Prince finale at KSU, note

   that Wildcats have covered only 1 of their last 7 final games of the

   season. Tech edge-slight to KSU, based on series home trend.

   TENNESSEE at VANDERBILT...Vandy has covered 3 of last 4 in

   series. Vols no wins or covers last 3 in ‘08. Tech edge-Vandy,

   based on recent trends.

   ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...A real home series, with

   host team covering last 6 meetings! Hogs, however, have covered 4 of

   their last 5 TY. Sly Croom 2-2 vs. line at Starkville TY but just 4-11 last

   15 at home. Tech edge-Arkansas, based on recent trends.

   AKRON at OHIO...Home team has won and covered last 3 in series.

   But Zips have covered 4 of 5 away TY and 5 of last 6 on road dating

   to late ‘07. Zips also 2-1 as road chalk TY after 0-4 mark in role

   previous 3 years. Tech edge- Akron, based on recent trends.

   COLORADO STATE at WYOMING...Border war! Home team has

   won and covered last 5 in series. CSU a real home-road team TY,

   0-5 vs. line away from Fort Collins, 5-0 vs. spread at Hughes Stadium!

   Tech edge-Wyo, based on series and team trends.

   MARSHALL at RICE...Marshall 2-3 vs. line away TY, but that’s am

   improvement from recent seasons (Herd 6-21-1 vs. number last 28

   away from home). Owls 4-1 vs. line as chalk TY. Tech edge-Rice,

   based on team trends.

   SYRACUSE at NOTRE DAME...Ugh! Robinson only 7-18 vs. line last

   24 on board. Cuse also just 1-4 its last 5 as road dog. ND just 9-17

   vs. line last 26 at South Bend, extending back to Willingham era. Tech

   edge-slight to ND, based on Cuse negatives.

   WASHINGTON at WASHINGTON STATE...Apple Cup! Visiting

   team has covered last 4 Apple Cups, and Huskies have covered last

   4 at Pullman. But UW on 8-game spread losing streak in ‘08, while Wazzu

   has covered last 2 TY. Tech edge-WSU, based on recent trends.

   TULANE at TULSA...Tulsa has won and covered big the last three

   meetings. Golden Hurricane has covered first 4 on line at home TY

   and 5 straight as host dating to late ‘07. Wave has lost last 4 outings

   in ‘08 by 17 or more. Tech edge-Tulsa, based on team and

   series trends.

   TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA...Teams have split the last 4 meetings

   SU and vs. spread, with home team winning SU all of those 4.

   Leach 2-0 as dog TY, but Stoops 4-1 vs. line at Norman, 14-4-1 vs.

   spread last 19 as host. Stoops only 1-3 vs. line last 4 in revenge,

   however. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on Sooner home mark.

   MICHIGAN STATE at PENN STATE...Spartans have covered last

   2 in series and are 8-2 vs. line away from home under Dantonio. Tech

   edge-slight to Michigan State, based on Spartan road mark.

   CLEMSON at VIRGINIA...Tigers 9-2 as dog since ‘05 (1-2 TY).

   Cavs streaky TY vs. line, now no wins or covers last 2. Groh still only

   0-1 vs. line as chalk TY and 1-6 as favorite since LY. Tech edge-

   Clemson, based on extended dog mark.

   AIR FORCE at TCU...Force now 7-1 last 8 vs. line as visitor. Frogs,

   however, have won and covered their last 6 in Fort Worth, and are

   13-4 as home chalk since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based

   on team trends.

   STANFORD at CAL...Big Game! Tedford lost his first Big Game LY

   after beating Tree 5 straight. Stanford has covered last 2 Big Games,

   however. Tedford is 5-0 vs. number as Berkeley chalk in ‘08, while

   Harbaugh just 2-4 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to Cal,

   based on recent trends.

   LOUISIANA TECH at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs.

   line last 5 TY, and Ags no covers last 4 on board at Las Cruces TY.

   Tech edge-LT, based on recent trends.

   BOISE STATE at NEVADA...Boise had overwhelmed Nevada in

   recent years prior to wild 69-67 OT win on blue carpet LY. Broncos

   had won and covered previous 7 meetings by huge margins (all by

   31 or more), and Boise has won and covered last 3 at Reno by 140-35

   total score! Ault 19-7 against number at home since returning to sidelines

   in ‘04. Tech edge-Boise, based on extended series trends.

   EAST CAROLINA at UAB...ECU has covered last 3 in series, but

   Skip in retreat with no covers last 3 or 7 of last 8 TY. Included are

   4 straight Ls in once-profitable road role. Tech edge-UAB, based

   on recent ECU woes.

   UTEP at HOUSTON...Mike Price 10-4-1 last 15 as road dog, and

   Miners 11-6 as DD dog since 2003. Tech edge-UTEP, based on

   Price’s extended road dog mark.

   BYU at UTAH...Utes had covered last 3 meetings before BYU

   escaped with 17-10 win LY. Cougs just 3-4 as visiting dog since

   Bronco Mendenhall took over in ‘05. Tech edge-Utah, based on

   recent trends.

   IOWA at MINNESOTA...Floyd of Rosedale! Gophers have covered

   last 2 Floyd battles after Hawkeyes had covered previous 7. If Iowa

   chalk, note Hawkeyes 1-0 on road in role TY, but just 2-8 in role since

   ‘03. Tech edge-slight to Iowa, based on extended series

   trends.

   OREGON STATE at ARIZONA...Series edge to OSU, which has

   won and covered last 2 and 8 of last 9 vs. Arizona. Beavs have

   covered last 3 on road TY and 6 of last 8 away from Corvallis. Beavs

   have also covered 7 of last 8 TY. Cats, however, have now covered

   their last 7 at Tucson (4-0 as home chalk TY). Tech edge-OSU,

   based on series trends.

   WEST VIRGINIA at LOUISVILLE...Home team has won SU last 3

   meetings, although WVU failed to cover in home win LY. Tech edgeslight

   to Louisville, based on series trends.

   UCF at MEMPHIS...Home team has covered last 3 meetings, all of

   those won outright by UCF. Tech edge-slight to Memphis,

   based on recent UCF woes.

   UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rebs have now covered 4 of last

   5 and are 3-1 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-UNLV, based on

   recent trends.

   OLE MISS at LSU...Rebs haven’t beaten LSU since ‘01, but they

   have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Rebs have also covered last 5 as

   road dog since mid ‘07. LSU 4-14-2 vs. number last 20 on board since

   early ‘07, and no covers last 7 on board at Baton Rouge. Tech edge-

   Ole Miss, based on team and series trends.

   IDAHO at HAWAII...Leahey has won and covered big the last four

   years in series, and has covered 5 of last 6 on board TY. Vandals

   only 2-7 vs. line last 9 as visitor (1-4 TY). Tech edge-Hawaii, based

   on team trends.

   FLORIDA ATLANTIC at ARKANSAS STATE...ASU no covers last

   5 on board TY. Schnellenberger 8-2 vs. line last 10 Belt games away

   from Lockhart Stadium. Tech edge-FAU, based on team trends

   UL-MONROE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...Weatherbie 15-8-1

   as road dog since ‘05, and has won and covered handily the last 2

   vs. FIU. Tech edge-ULM, based on team and series trends.

   NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU in control lately

   with big wins and covers last 2 meetings. UNT 7-14 vs. line for Todd

   Dodge since LY, 14-30-1 last 45 overall. Tech edge-MTSU, based

   on recent series trends.

   UL-LAFAYETTE at TROY...Ragin’ Cajuns 9-4 vs. spread last 13 as

   visitor. Trojans no covers last 2 as chalk TY after 11-3-1 run previous

   15 in role. Tech edge-slight to ULL, based on recent trends.

   UCONN at SOUTH FLORIDA (Sunday, November 23)...Home team

   has won and covered the last 3 years. But USF only 1-4 vs. line at

   Tampa TY, and poor 2-8 vs. line (all as chalk) in ‘08. Huskies only 1-

   6 vs. line their last 7 away from home, however. Tech edge-slight

   to UConn, based on recent USF chalk woes.

   COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

   COACH & POINTSPREAD-

   BALL STATE over Central Michigan

   (11/19), GEORGIA TECH over Miami-Florida (11/20), ARKANSAS

   over Mississippi State, BYU over Utah, CINCINNATI over Pitt, ULMONROE

   over Florida International@, MICHIGAN STATE over penn

   State, OHIO STATE over Michigan@, TCU over Air Force@, VIRGINIA

   TECH over Duke.

   COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-

   UL-MONROE over Florida

   international@, MICHIGAN STATE over Penn State@, NC STATE over

   North Carolina, UTEP over Houston.

   RIVALRY DOGS-

   SAN JOSE STATE over Fresno State (11/21),

   INDIANA over Purdue, NORTHWESTERN over Illinois, MICHIGAN over

   Ohio State, NORTH CAROLINA STATE over North Carolina, TENNESSEE

   over Vanderbilt, WYOMING over Colorado State, WASHINGTON

   STATE over Washington, STANFORD over Cal, MINNESOTA over

   Iowa, OLE MISS over Lsu.

   POWER UNDERDOGS-

   MIAMI-FLORIDA over Georgia Tech (11/

   20)@, AIR FORCE over Tcu@, BOSTON COLLEGE over Wake Forest,

   BYU over Utah, MICHIGAN STATE over Penn State@, OREGON

   STATE over Arizona, TEXAS TECH over Oklahoma@.

   PAINFUL MEMORY-

   OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech@.

   POWER REVENGE-

   OKLAHOMA over Texas Tech@, PENN STATE@

   over Michigan State.

   RESTED HOME WINNERS-

   MEMPHIS over Central Florida, FLORIDA

   INTERNATIONAL over UL-Monroe@, HAWAII over Idaho, OKLAHOMA

   over Texas Tech@, RICE over Marshall@.

   IMPOTENT FAVORITES-WASHINGTON STATE over Washington

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 20 2008 1:53pm
8. 0 likes

   Red Sheet 11/19--11/24

   --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   NOV 22, 2008, VOL 40, NO 13 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

   VANDERBILT 23 - Tennessee 10 - (12:30 EST) -- Line opened at Vanderbilt minus 2½, and is now minus 3.

   Commodores are normally a mid-teen or higher dog in this contest, but fortunes of the 2

   have certainly changed. Vols playing out the string, with a mere 3 wins, & Fullmer just

   counting the days. Tennessee ranks 117th in total offense, with a running game which

   checks in at #107 (63 RYpg last 6). The 'Dores now bowl eligible, & have been highly

   competitive vs all opponents, but Florida, & Gators are in a class by themselves. Check a

   39:18-20:42 time edge in upset of Kentucky, with QB Nickson back in form. Revenger!

   RATING: VANDERBILT 89

   North Carolina State 27 - NORTH CAROLINA 26 - (12:00) -- Line opened at NorthCarolina minus 13, and

   is now minus 11. Altho standing at just 4-6 SU, the Wolfpack have been a pleasant surprise

   this season, especially in the battle vs the oddsmakers. As a matter of fact they are a

   perfect 6-0 ATS in conference play, with back-to-back upsets the past 2 weeks. QB Wilson

   has been on the mark, with 11 TDs in his last 6 games, & that rushing "D" has held its last

   2 opponents to 94 & 98 yds. The Heels are heading for a bowl, but it has been the TO,

   which has propelled them, as they rank just 92nd on offense. A call for rivalry upset.

   RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 89

   TULSA 67 - Tulane 13 - (3:00) -- Line opened at Tulsa minus 27½, and is now minus 29. There cannot be

   another squad in the nation, which is more eager to strap it on & get it going, than these

   highly potent 'Canes, who have had to endure a week of living with the stigma of a 40-pt

   loss, despite topping 500 yds on offense. Not only was their defense invisible in that embarrassment

   at Houston, but they abetted in their downfall with 5 turnovers, & allowed a TD on

   a KO return. Have to see return to the form, behind QB Johnson (37 TD passes), & decimated

   Wave provides the perfect foil, having allowed >40 pts in 4 of its last 6 tilts.

   RATING: TULSA 88

   Stanford 27 - CALIFORNIA 24 - (3:30) -- Line opened at California minus 9½, and is now minus 9. Cards

   broke out hearts a week ago, with an 18-yd TD pass vs USC, on the game's final play, after

   deciding against a meaningless FG, following a time out by Trojan boss Pete Carroll, meant

   to "ice" the kicker. The Trojans were a 4* Phone Play. So a 22-pt loss to mighty USC, but

   just a 51-yd deficit, with a 21-21 FD push. Fact is, Stanford has been more than competitive,

   with a combined 2-pt edge over the likes of OregonSt, Arizona, & Oregon. Cal in off

   managing just 13 & 11 FDs, along with 173-27 & 194-85 RY deficits. An upset!

   RATING: STANFORD 88

   New England 27 - MIAMI 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Miami minus 1, and is now minus 2½. The Dolphs,

   as a chalk in this series, sure is foreign, as you have to go back to '03, to find the last time

   that has occurred. Fact is that the Patriots were the first victims of the "Wildcat Offense" of

   the Fish, when they simply blasted NewEngland, 38-13 (as 12½ pt dogs), in front of a

   stunned crowd in Foxboro, with a 461-216 yd advantage. And Miami has continued along,

   winning 5 of its 7 games, in the interim. But this time Belichick & Co won't be taken by

   surprise. Note that they are 3-0 ATS off losses, & the dog is 8-0 ATS in Miami games.

   RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88

   New York Giants 31 - ARIZONA 17 - (4:15) -- Line opened at NewYork minus 3, and is now minus 3½.

   Can't find many fans who aren't pleased with the fine play of the Cards, & especially of QB

   Warner, who has suffered through some rough times, including his stay at NY, when he was

   just serving time, until Eli was ready. WRs such as Boldin & Fitzgerald sure make his job

   easier. However, the Giants are a different matter. Well acquainted with this field, where

   they prevailed in LY's Super Bowl, they excel away from home. In off >200 RYs vs stone

   wall that is Baltimore's defense, & own 2nd rated passing defense. NY, yet again.

   RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88

   NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Utah, Rice, Arkansas, PennSt, NotreDame - NFL: Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay

   LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): NoCaroSt (+13 to +11); WashingtonSt (+9½ to +7½);

   BallSt (-5½ to -7); OhioSt (-19 to -20½); Tulsa (-27½ to -29); Memphis (-3 to -4½); FlaInternat'l (-5 to -6½) -

   NFL: Miami (-1 to -2½); Dallas (-10 to -11½); Baltimore (Pick to -1½); Jacksonville (-1 to -2½); Cincinnati

   (+11 to +10) - TIME CHANGES: Falcons/Panthers: 4:15 - KEY INJURIES: Arkansas RB Smith (shoulder)

   probable; Arkansas QB Dick (concussion) ??; BYU TE Pitta (knee) ??; Cincinnati QB Pike (sternum) probable;

   Duke QB Lewis (foot) ??; EastCarolina WR Harris (foot) doubtful; FresnoSt RB Mathews (knee) doubtful;

   GaTech QB Nesbitt (ankle) ??; KansasSt QB Freeman (concussion) probable; Louisville RB Anderson

   (head) probable; Memphis QB Hall (thumb) probable; Memphis RB Steele (hamstring) probable; Minnesota

   WR Decker (ankle) probable; Purdue QB Painter (undisclosed) probable; SanJoseSt QB Reed (groin) ??;

   SoFla QB Grothe (ankle) probable; WashSt QB Lopina (concussion) ??; Western Mich RB West (ankle) ??

   - NFL: Arizona TE Patrick (knee) ??; Baltimore RB McGahee (ankle) ??; Cincy WR Chatman (neck) doubtful;

   Cincy WR Simpson (ankle) ??; Denver CB Bailey (groin) ??; Denver RB Young (groin) ??; GreenBay WR

   Driver (toe) ??; Houston QB Schaub (knee) out; Houston WR Davis (finger) ??; KC RB Charles (ankle) ??;

   NYGiant RB Jacobs (knee) probable; TampaBay RB Graham (knee) out

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 20 2008 1:55pm
9. 0 likes

   THE GOLD SHEET

   KEY RELEASES

   BUFFALO by 8 over Bowling Green (Friday)

   NORTHWESTERN by 9 over Illinois

   VANDERBILT by 17 over Tennessee

   MISSISSIPPI by 5 over Lsu

   *Buffalo 34 - BOWLING GREEN 26—Hot Buffalo has won 4 straight,

   as QB Drew Willy hasn’t thrown an int. in the streak. Bull RB Starks bounced

   back from injury to rush for 171 ypg and 7 TDs in last 3 games. BG QB Sheehan

   has cooled with the temperature in last 3 games, and Falcons make more

   mistakes than title-minded Bulls. HC Gill’s Bulls have covered 7 straight on the

   road; BG is 3-13 vs. spread last 16 at home.

   (07-B. Green 31-BUF. 17...Bg.23-17 Bu.30/159 Bg.39/140 Bg.21/30/0/273 Bu.20/33/0/215 Bg.0 Bu.0)

   (07-Bgu P 31-17 06-BGU -23 48-40 (OT) 05-Bgu -24 27-7...SR: Bowling Green 4-1)

   VANDERBILT 27 - Tennessee 10—Now that Vandy is finally bowleligible

   for 1st time since ‘82, must buck lame-duck coached UT, which never

   found a QB or offensive identity TY (16 ppg, 3.4 ypc, just 7 TDP). Contrarily,

   Vandy’s fast, versatile QB Nickson (118 YR, 3 TDP) had superb performance

   vs. Kentucky, with help from gifted two-way performer CB D.J. Moore, who

   caught two TD passes at Lexington. Note, ‘Dores aggressive defense leads

   SEC in sacks (26); Vols dead last (15).

   (07-TENN. 25-Vandy 24...T.22-17 V.41/131 T.28/105 T.29/43/0/245 V.14/26/0/139 T.1 V.0)

   (07-TENN. -12 25-24 06-Tenn. -8 39-10 05-Vandy +11' 28-24...SR: Tennessee 69-27-5)

   Mississippi 28 - LSU 23—Though LSU staged its biggest all-time

   comeback in 40-31 victory vs. Troy, compelled go against Tiger squad that’s just

   1-14 as SEC Baton Rouge chalk since ‘04 (0-6 overall as home favorite TY!). QB

   edge goes to Ole Miss’ Snead (3rd in pass efficiency in SEC; only 1 int. last 3 games)

   over mistake-prone LSU triggerman Lee (15 ints.), who’s tossed an incredible 7

   ints. for TDs. And bowl-eligible, competitive Rebels (5 straight covers as away

   dog) have much more in “tank” following breezy 59-0 debacle vs. UL-Monroe.

   Ole Miss HC Nutt 9-1 last 10 as a road dog! TV—CBS

   (07-Lsu 41-MISS. 24...M.25-21 L.40/228 M.28/201 M.17/39/3/265 L.17/25/0/168 L.0 M.1)

   (07-Lsu -19' 41-24 06-LSU -27' 23-20 (OT) 05-Lsu -16' 40-7...SR: LSU 55-37-4)

   ★ NORTHWESTERN 28 - Illinois 19—Northwestern defense has played

   surprisingly well 3 of last 4 games, and return to action of QB Bacher was a boost

   to the Wildcats in upset at Michigan. Illinois has managed just 3.9 ypc & 2 rush TDs

   in last 4 games, while QB Juice Williams has thrown 8 picks vs. just 6 TD passes

   in that run. Illini season has unraveled with 1-3 SU & spread stretch run.

   (07-ILL. 41-N’western 22...I.32-21 I.65/321 N.18/69 N.29/49/2/310 I.15/23/1/220 I.1 N.0)

   (07-ILL. -14 41-22 06-NWU +2' 27-16 05-Nwu -15 38-21...SR: Illinois 52-44-5)

   THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 20

   *GEORGIA TECH 23 - Miami-Florida 16—Happenin’ Hurricanes have won 5

   straight, as former Kansas d.c. Bill Young’s swarming stop unit begrudged foes

   just 7 points & 139 total yards during third quarter of those games. Miami’s

   offense (only 315 ypg) mostly doing just enough to get by, however. Big plays

   more likely to come from Georgia Tech’s tough-to-prepare-for option attack &

   soph RB Dwyer (1056 YR on 6.6 ypc). Jackets’ DL is top-notch, and crafty HC

   Paul Johnson will have some surprises in store for RS frosh Cane QB Marve (10

   ints., only 7 TDP). TV—ESPN

   (07-Ga. Tech 17-MIAMI 14...G.22-12 G.50/264 M.38/167 G.11/29/1/114 M.8/18/0/56 G.0 M.0)

   (07-Tech +2' 17-14 06-TECH -4' 30-23 05-Tech +18 14-10...SR: Georgia Tech 9-4)

   FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 21

   *Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 25—Both teams played competitively in losses

   last week, but they also each have just 1 SU win in last two months. Miami-O.

   has QB edge with either Clay Belton (out injured last week) or Daniel

   Raudabaugh, who’s coming off one of his best games (254 YP, 0 ints. vs. Ball

   State). Rockets 0-4 SU at home this season and have rushed for just 92 ypg in last

   7 TY. (DNP...SR: Miami-Ohio 27-20-1)

   *SAN JOSE STATE 24 - Fresno State 17—Though earlier WAC contender

   SJS hasn’t been the same since 33-16 home loss vs. Boise State on Oct. 24,

   still prefer to buck banged-up (top RBs hurt), poor-tackling FSU (allowing 5.8

   ypc), which has dropped 9 straight vs. spread, and is 9-27-1 last 37 on board.

   Spartans capable QB Reed & WRs equipped to burn soft-covering Bulldog

   2ndary (meager 6 ints. last 21 games!). Additionally, Tomey’s troops eager to

   atone for previous home effort vs. La Tech (1st shutout in 40 yrs.!), and host has

   covered 5 of last 6 in series. TV—ESPN2

   (07-FRES. ST. 30-Sjs 0...F.22-18 F.43/251 S.30/140 S.22/44/1/254 F.16/26/0/132 F.1 S.0)

   (07-FSU -13 30-0 06-SJS -4 24-14 05-FSU -33 45-7...SR: Fresno State 36-33-3)

   SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 22

   TEMPLE 35 - Eastern Michigan 17—Temple is arguably most snake-bitten

   squad in nation (2 OT losses & 3 others by combined 10 pts.). But with Owls

   productive QB DiMichele (622 YP & 6 TDP last two games) in a groove since

   returning from injury, Temple figures to win handily vs. defensively-porous EMU

   (36 ppg, 5.8 ypc), which is bankroll-busting 6-15 vs. spread last 21. Owls a

   hootin’ 8-3-2 vs. spread at the Linc since ‘06. (DNP...SR: Temple 3-0)

   RUTGERS 36 - Army 10—Return to wishbone-type attack of yesteryear (as

   well as a plucky veteran defense) making rested Army (6-1 vs. spread last 7) a

   tough nut to crack in 2008. But prefer not to buck surging Scarlet Knights (4

   straight victories, 6 covers in a row), as sizzling sr. QB Teel (12 TDP last 3

   games!) figures to burn Black Knights’ secondary early & often.

   (07-Rutgers 41-ARMY 6...R.25-6 R.72/404 A.20/97 A.7/24/1/55 R.3/12/1/42 R.1 A.4)

   (07-Rutgers -19' 41-6...SR: Army 18-16)

   *CINCINNATI 28 - Pittsburgh 20—First place in Big East at stake. Cincy’s

   Brian Kelly (29-10-2 vs. spread last 41 on line!) is regarded as one of nation’s

   top young mentors, and Bearcats own superior passing attack. Substantial

   edge to Pitt ground game & stellar soph RB McCoy (1043 YR & 16 TDs). Seniorladen

   Cincy “D” hasn’t beaten Pitt and vets will be primed for revenge. TV—ESPN2

   (07-PITT 24-Cincy 17...P.26-18 P.46/260 C.28/121 C.21/32/1/237 P.18/29/1/167 P.0 C.2)

   (07-PITT +10 24-17 06-Pitt -7' 33-15 05-PITT -13 38-20...SR: Pittsburgh 7-0)

   WAKE FOREST 20 - Boston College 14—BC seized inside track to Atlantic

   Division’s berth in ACC title game with last week’s win at Florida State. Wellcoached

   Wake far from out of contention, however. Both defenses are very

   stout vs. rush, and each opportunistic team has 29 takeaways (tied for 2nd in

   nation). Ball security might prove key, and Deacon QB Skinner (only 1 int. last

   6 games) more careful with rock than Eagle counterpart Crane. TV—ABC

   (07-BOS. COL. 38-W. For. 28...24-24 B.27/54 W.24/2 B.32/52/2/408 W.45/60/4/366 B.1 W.0)

   (07-BC -6 38-28 06-WFU +4 21-14 05-BC -14 35-30...SR: Boston College 7-6-2)

   PURDUE 37 - Indiana 19—Most of Purdue’s few highlights this season have

   come at home, and the host has covered 8 of last 10 in “Old Oaken Bucket”

   series. Boiler 5th-year QB Painter flashed prime form in completing 24 of 30

   passes at Iowa, and hurtin’ Hoosier “D” ranks 105th. Purdue primed for special

   effort in HC Tiller’s finale. TV—ESPN2

   (07-IND. 27-Purdue 24...P.25-24 I.41/219 P.32/78 P.28/45/1/281 I.23/39/1/216 I.1 P.1)

   (07-IND. +2 27-24 06-PURDUE -12 28-19 05-Purdue -12 41-14...SR: Purdue 68-36-6)

   OHIO STATE 35 - Michigan 10—This is the losingest Michigan team in

   history, but rest assured Wolverines will muster their best effort in attempt to

   eliminate Ohio State from Big Ten title chance. However, Beanie Wells should

   repeatedly give the Buckeyes ball control, allowing QB produgy Pryor chances

   to run and pass for big gains. TV—ABC

   (07-Ohio St. 14-MICH. 3...O.16-8 O.59/229 M.24/15 M.12/37/0/76 O.7/13/1/50 O.0 M.0)

   (07-Osu -4 14-3 06-OSU -6' 42-39 05-Osu -3 25-21...SR: Michigan 57-41-6)

   *VIRGINIA TECH 32 - Duke 10—Don’t relish laying big points with tepid Tech,

   as stodgy Hokie offense mustering just 289 ypg. Depth-shy Duke defense has

   appeared drained lately, however, and Blue Devil QB Lewis now banged up.

   CABLE TV—ESPNU

   (07-Va. Tech 43-DUKE 14...V.21-13 V.38/99 D.36/72 V.21/30/1/346 D.14/28/1/122 V.1 D.2)

   (07-Tech -13' 43-14 06-TECH -35 36-0 05-Tech -20' 45-0...SR: Virginia Tech 8-7)

   *MARYLAND 19 - Florida State 13—Terps, who are undefeated at College

   Park TY, need victory to set up possible Atlantic Division-deciding showdown at

   BC next week. And, as long as scattershot jr. QB Turner (only 1 int. last 6

   games) continues to at least avoid giveaways, Maryland (nearly 400 YR in last

   2 games) should be able to slug its way past Seminole side that can’t seem to

   avoid off-field distractions. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-FLA. ST. 24-Mary. 16...18-18 F.38/154 M.37/92 M.17/35/1/243 F.16/26/0/204 F.1 M.0)

   (07-FSU -7' 24-16 06-MARY. +3' 27-24 05-FSU -17 35-27...SR: Florida State 16-2)

   North Carolina State 28 - NORTH CAROLINA 27—In the ultra-balanced

   ACC, there’s very little separating teams near the top from those at the bottom.

   In fact, sub-.500 Wolfpack (covered 7 of last is one of league’s hottest

   squads vs. spread. So, eager to grab points with State, as resourceful RS frosh

   QB R. Wilson (12 TDP, no ints. in his last 6 games!) fully capable of leading

   upset over revenge-minded (but still-maturing) rival UNC.

   (07-N. CAR. ST. 31-N. Car. 27...S.24-13 S.43/167 U.20/12 U.23/43/2/291 S.26/42/2/229 S.0 U.0)

   (07-NCS -3' 31-27 06-UNC +3' 23-9 05-Unc +11 31-24...SR: North Carolina 63-28-6)

   KANSAS STATE 30 - Iowa State 26—Last game for KSU’s Ron Prince. Both

   teams happy to see 2008 season come to an end, with ISU having lost nine

   straight, while Wildcats have given up 207 points in their last four games. But,

   with K-State not displaying much discipline or leadership, can’t lay any points

   vs. youthful, but well-drilled Cyclones.

   (07-IOWA ST. 31-Kan. St. 20...K.22-14 I.40/120 K.29/78 K.28/45/2/347 I.17/26/1/228 I.0 K.1)

   (07-ISU +14' 31-20 06-KSU -4' 31-10 05-ISU -7' 45-17...SR: Iowa State 49-38-4)

   Arkansas 24 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 17—With offensively-pedestrian MSU

   (15 ppg) out of bowl contention following 3rd straight SEC loss, favor rested,

   motivated Arkansas (can still finish 6-6) on 9-game series win streak. Hogs own

   decided offensive edge with trio of QB C. Dick (2389 YP, 11 TDs), fast RB M.

   Smith (113 ypg rushing, 5.2 ypc) & sure-handed WR D.J. Williams (48 grabs).

   Croom’s crew a stark 4-11 vs. spread last 15 in Starkville.

   (07-ARK. 45-Miss. St. 31...M.27-20 A.45/206 M.31/80 M.29/51/4/421 A.15/18/0/223 A.0 M.1)

   (07-ARK. -11' 45-31 06-Ark. -14' 28-14 05-ARK. -13' 44-10 at LR...SR: Arkansas 12-5-1)

   Akron 28 - OHIO 21—Akron RB Dennis Kennedy has been on fire in 2nd half

   of season, rushing for 189 ypg and scoring 10 TDs in last 4 games. Zips QB

   Jaquemain has balanced the offense by throwing for 243 ypg & 7 TDs (only 1

   int.) in last 3 games. Akron still has shot at 7-win season and bowl

   consideration.

   (07-AKRON 48-Ohio 37...18-18 A.35/177 O.33/120 A.17/28/1/242 O.17/37/0/239 A.1 O.0)

   (07-AKRON +3 48-37 06-OHIO -5 17-7 05-AKRON -3 27-3...SR: Akron 12-11-1)

   Colorado State 24 - WYOMING 20—More angles than would meet the eye in

   this “Border War,” with CSU a win away from bowl eligibility (really!) and Joe

   Glenn perhaps coaching his last game for Wyo. Do we dare recommend Ram

   side that’s yet to cover (0-5 vs. line) away from Ft. Collins TY? CSU more likely

   to fire scoring shots, with QB Farris more capable of causing damage than

   counterpart Stutzriem, but not comfy laying any significant points with poortravelin’

   Rams.

   (07-COLO. ST. 36-Wyo. 28...C.22-15 C.52/152 W.27/99 C.16/22/1/245 W.21/34/0/229 C.1 W.2)

   (07-CSU -3' 36-28 06-WYO. -4 24-0 05-CSU -3' 39-31...SR: Colorado State 54-40-5)

   RICE 42 - Marshall 28—Sure, being a substantial favorite is an unfamiliar

   pointspread role for long-suffering Owls. But that doesn’t mean rested Rice &

   record-setting sr. QB Clement (87 career TDP) won’t easily blow away poortraveling

   Herd, who’ve managed just 6 covers in last 28 migrating from

   Huntington.

   (07-MARSHALL 34-Rice 21...R.24-22 M.46/254 R.27/130 R.30/49/1/298 M.15/33/0/227 M.0 R.0)

   (07-MARSHALL -9 34-21...SR: Marshall 1-0)

   NOTRE DAME 34 - Syracuse 10—Charlie Weis not out of the woods with

   angry Domers just because ND survived Navy scare last week. And Weis

   knows what would be coming from the “Subway Alums” if Irish can’t take care

   of business vs. Syracuse. Fortunately for Weis, there’s not much “juice” left in

   woeful Orange, with Greg Robinson’s imminent dismissal the worst-kept secret

   since Madonna’s breakup with Guy Ritchie. Sieve-like Syracuse “D” provides

   lots of opportunities for Jimmy Clausen to exploit. TV—NBC

   (05-NOTRE DAME -33' 34-10...SR: N. Dame 3-2)

   WASHINGTON STATE 21 - Washington 20—We’re not even sure James

   Carville could spin a case for either of these “rotten” Apple Cup combatants, but

   we’ll give it a try. Non-effort at home vs. the hated Rick Neuheisel & UCLA

   suggests winless U-Dub has completely spit the bit for the soon-to-depart Ty

   Willingham. And though Wazzu might be down to true frosh Levenseller at QB,

   Cougs at least displaying a little spunk in recent weeks with back-to-back

   covers. Besides, only one of these two (Wazzu, albeit vs. lower-level Portland

   State) has tasted the heady nectar of victory in ‘08!

   (07-Wash. St. 42-WASH. 35...U.22-20 U.50/225 S.26/110 S.27/40/0/399 U.13/37/2/239 S.0 U.1)

   (07-Wsu +6' 42-35 06-Wash. +8' 35-32 05-Wsu -3 26-22...SR: Washington 64-30-6)

   TULSA 63 - Tulane 27—Potent Tulsa (nation-leading 584 ypg) headed back

   home and looking to vent some frustration after 2 straight losses soured its 8-0

   start. Enter punchless Tulane side that’s been decimated by attrition on both sides

   of ball. Ouch!

   (07-Tulsa 49-TULANE 25...Ts.27-21 Ts.49/281 Tn.38/114 Ts.18/27/1/319 Tn.23/39/1/287 Ts.2 Tn.0)

   (07-Tulsa -6' 49-25 06-TULSA -17 38-3 05-Tulsa -15 38-14 at Monroe...SR: Tulsa 3-1)

   *OKLAHOMA 37 - Texas Tech 27—Offensive statistics for both teams and

   QBs are “silly” (Sam Bradford 38 TDs, 6 ints.; Graham Harrell 36 & 5). OU’s nohuddle

   offense has yielded only 9 sacks; TT’s spread, 5. Bob Stoops is 59-2 SU

   in Norman since arriving in 1999. Sooners seeking revenge for LY’s Lubbock

   game, during which Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray were both injured. OU

   strikes for more big plays, but Harrell’s decision-making TY has been nearly

   impeccable. TT (2-4 as road dog L3+Ys) improved on defense TY, but Sooners

   own the ground game that Texas did not in its narrow loss in Lubbock. TV—ABC

   (07-TEX. TECH 34-Okla. 27...T.25-17 O.34/106 T.17/53 T.47/72/2/420 O.23/45/1/302 T.1 O.1)

   (07-TECH +8 34-27 06-OKLA. -8' 34-24 05-TECH -7' 23-21...SR: Oklahoma 11-4)

   PENN STATE 30 - Michigan State 21—Michigan State still has a chance to

   grab a piece of Big Ten crown and is very capable of giving powerful Penn State

   a game. Spartan QB Hoyer has thrown for 548 yds. & 5 TDs in 2 games against

   the Nittany Lions, and RB Ringer is 3rd in the country in rushing. After throwing

   for 12 scores in first 5 games, Nittany Lion attack has downshifted, managing just

   5 TD passes in last 6. Paterno wins Big Ten, but not in a walkover. TV—ABC

   (07-MICH. ST. 35-Penn St. 31...M.21-20 P.40/167 M.39/145 M.17/22/2/280 P.16/37/0/188 M.1 P.0)

   (07-MSU +2' 35-31 06-PSU -17' 17-13 05-Psu -8 31-22...SR: EVEN 12-12-1)

   VIRGINIA 20 - Clemson 19—Both teams need one more win to be bowl

   eligible. No big surprise if up-and-down Virginia, which dropped its last 2 games

   after capturing 4 straight, able to ride stalwart sr. RB Peerman & extra week of

   prep to small victory at Charlottesville. Clemson speedy jr. RB/return man

   Spiller has scored 12 TDs in his career that covered at least 50 yards. But

   Virginia high-percentage play as home dog.

   (DNP...SR: Clemson 35-8-1)

   TCU 33 - Air Force 10—With 16 days to stew over blown BCS at-large

   opportunity at Utah, expect TCU to take out some of its frustrations vs. AFA.

   Falc frosh QB Jefferson yet to face a “D” remotely reminiscent of d.c. Dick

   Bumpas’ voracious 4-2-5 Horned Frog stop unit that tops nation in rush “D” and

   has allowed only Oklahoma to score more than 14 against it. With soph WR

   Young emerging as legit homerun threat for QB Dalton, TCU capable of

   extending margin.

   (07-A. FORCE 20-Tcu 17 (OT)...T.20-15 A.42/146 T.32/89 T.29/45/2/320 A.17/28/1/193 A.0 T.1)

   (07-AFA +8 20-17 (OT) 06-TCU -17 38-14 05-Tcu +1 48-10...SR: TCU 4-2-1)

   Stanford 24 - CALIFORNIA 22—Acknowledge Cal’s prowess at Strawberry

   Canyon TY, as Bears 5-0 SU and vs. line as host. But this is the Big Game,

   where anything can happen (just ask Bear announcer Joe Starkey...”the band is on

   the FIELD!”), and it‘s not much of a stretch to envision bowl-hungry Stanford

   making things interesting as long as Cardinal can establish infantry with slamming

   RB Gerhart, especially with Cal QB Riley’s confidence a bit shaky after subpar

   outing at Corvallis. TV—ABC

   (07-STAN. 20-Cal. 13...S.20-17 S.39/120 C.24/108 C.22/47/2/252 S.21/33/1/196 S.1 C.1)

   (07-STAN. +13' 20-13 06-CAL. -29' 26-17 05-Cal. -5 27-3...SR: Stanford 55-44-11)

   Louisiana Tech 35 - NEW MEXICO STATE 21—With these two programs

   heading in opposite directions, must buck spiraling NMS (5 straight losses

   since stunning Nevada upset), whose embroiled HC Mumme about to be

   “mummified” by administration. 6-4 La Tech envisioning 1st bowl since 2002.

   Fundamentally, Bulldogs dynamic RB tandem of D. Porter & D. Jackson gashes

   sieve-like Aggie front 7 allowing a whopping 5.7 ypc. Speaking of sieves, Aggie

   OL has allowed 10 sacks last two weeks.

   (07-LA. TECH 22-Nms 21...L.20-19 L.26/98 N.36/65 N.29/40/0/319 L.27/47/0/269 L.0 N.0)

   (07-TECH -7' 22-21 06-NMS -12' 50-23 05-TECH -10' 34-14...SR: New Mexico St. 4-3)

   Boise State 34 - NEVADA 23—Nevada won’t be intimidated by Boise as it

   was in years past, not after taking Broncos to multiple OTs in ‘07 and playing

   Texas Tech competitively earlier this season in Reno. And Bronco “D” still

   probably having nightmares about long-legged Wolf Pack QB Kaepernick

   running wild in LY’s shootout. But Boise stop unit has the quicks to somewhat

   diffuse Chris Ault’s Pistol, and deadeye Bronco QB K. Moore can exploit

   bottom-ranked Nevada pass “D” yielding 318 ypg.

   (07-BOISE ST. 69-Nev. 67 (OT)...B.30-28 N.52/396 B.48/274 B.27/36/1/353 N.11/26/0/243 B.1 N.0)

   (07-BSU -26 69-67 (OT) 06-Bsu -2' 38-7 05-BSU -20' 49-14...SR: Boise State 22-12)

   *East Carolina 24 - UAB 23—Since declining ECU attack (12 ppg last 3

   games) showing how much it misses NFL Rookie of the Year candidate Chris

   Johnson (787 YR with Tennessee!), willing to “take” with UAB, shooting for its

   3rd straight cover as a home dog. Blazers dual-threat QB Webb (130 YR, 154

   YP vs. Tulane) should move chains. And with UAB attack displaying improved

   ball security (only one TO vs. Green Wave; 23 in previous , this one decided late.

   (07-E. CAR. 41-Uab 6...E.22-19 E.35/216 U.35/168 E.20/31/0/255 U.17/37/2/128 E.0 U.0)

   (07-ECU -14' 41-6 06-UAB -6' 17-12 05-ECU +5 31-23...SR: UAB 4-3)

   HOUSTON 49 - Utep 42—There’s no question that prolific Houston, which

   has scored at least 41 points in 5 of its last 6 games, possesses devastating KO

   power. But even with Coug QB Keenum striking lots of blows against vulnerable

   UTEP defense, Miners’ undersung soph QB Vittatoe (25 TDP, only 3 ints. last

   7 games) should counterpunch effectively enough to take host the distance.

   (07-Hou. 34-UTEP 31...H.28-17 H.56/306 U.37/193 H.23/36/0/214 U.11/26/0/176 H.0 U.1)

   (07-Houston -6 34-31 06-HOUSTON -6' 34-17 05-UTEP -12 44-41 (OT)...SR: UTEP 3-2)

   *UTAH 26 - Byu 24—Every LDS member from Mitt Romney to Donny Osmond

   will be paying attention to this one, with MWC title and possible BCS at-large

   ramifications. BYU must deal with rugged Utah “D” that’s almost impossible to

   run against (allows only 3 ypc), likely forcing Coug QB Hall to carry extra burden.

   Brian Johnson and Utah “O” no mystery to Bronco Mendenhall, either, but Utes’

   uncanny knack to survive nailbiters (5 wins by 7 or fewer TY) likely to come in

   handy once more.

   (07-BYU 17-Utah 10...B.21-14 B.33/155 U.39/115 B.17/41/1/269 U.17/29/2/129 B.1 U.0)

   (07-BYU -4' 17-10 06-Byu -3' 33-31 05-Utah +10 41-34 (OT)...SR: Utah 49-30-4)

   *MINNESOTA 23 - Iowa 21—Respect Minnesota’s defensive effort at

   Wisconsin in holding Badgers to a season-low 116 YR. Gopher QB Weber

   showed resourcefulness in generating 202 YP & 3 TDs under hostile

   circumstances without services of star WR Decker. Also respect Iowa defense

   and standout RB Shonn Greene (11 straight 100-yard games), but Hawkeye QB

   Stanzi has completed just 49% with 3 ints. & only 2 TD throws in last 3 games.

   (07-IOWA 21-Minn. 16...M.18-17 I.40/139 M.33/125 M.24/41/1/190 I.14/25/1/157 I.0 M.0)

   (07-IOWA -14' 21-16 06-MINN. -2' 34-24 05-IOWA -5 52-28...SR: Minnesota 59-40-2)

   *Oregon State 29 - ARIZONA 27—Will Lyle Moevao become the first OSU

   QB since Paul Brothers (in 1964) to lead Beavers to Rose Bowl? We’ll find out

   soon enough. And, with Arizona proving more susceptible to self-destruct

   tendencies in recent weeks than OSU, Beavs can keep Pasadena hopes alive.

   Remember, OSU d.c. Mark Banker’s schemes greatly flustered Willie Tuitama

   and Wildcat spread LY, and Beaver “O” effectively probing opposition with frosh

   RB Quizz Rodgers’ darting thrusts.

   (07-ORE. ST. 31-Ariz. 16...O.19-15 O.41/187 A.27/9 A.18/38/3/222 O.20/35/2/164 O.0 A.0)

   (07-OSU -3 31-16 06-Osu -2' 17-10 05-Ariz. +9' 29-27...SR: Arizona 20-10-1)

   West Virginia 27 - LOUISVILLE 23—WV trying to stay alive in Big East race;

   Louisville (5-6) fighting for bowl eligibility. Mountaineers not the same TY

   without coach “Rich Rod,” RBs Slaton & Schmitt, and big-play receiver Renaud.

   D.c. Ron English (from Michigan) has stabilized the Cardinal defense, and RS

   frosh Vic Anderson (973 YR) a revelation. But Louisville offense lacking

   receivers. CABLE TV—ESPN

   (07-W. VA. 38-Lvl. 31...L.24-19 W.46/216 L.27/37 L.27/46/2/345 W.16/25/0/181 W.3 L.2)

   (07-WVA -16' 38-31 06-LVL. -1' 44-34 05-WVA +7 46-44 (OT)...SR: West Virginia 7-2)

   MEMPHIS 27 - Ucf 17—Despite losing three QBs TY (starter Arkelon Hall has

   a chance to return), Memphis (which hosts Tulane next week) can still finish 7-

   5 and garner a bowl berth. So, with RB Curtis Steele (1002 YR, 5.96 ypc)

   leading the way, well-rested Tigers (DNP last week) and caretaker QB Brett

   Toney (27 of 47, 3 TDs, 2 ints. last 3 games) likely to prevail.

   (07-UCF 56-Memphis 20...U.28-19 U.59/313 M.36/130 U.17/21/0/288 M.16/33/0/173 U.3 M.0)

   (07-UCF -7 56-20 06-Ucf -2' 26-24 05-UCF +1' 38-17...SR: UCF 3-1)

   *Unlv 41 - SAN DIEGO STATE 17—With SDSU continuing to plumb nearuncharted

   depths of ineptitude (Aztecs couldn’t force even one punt from Utah

   last week!), we’re not holding our breath for Chuck Long’s troops to finally gain

   some traction. After all, surging UNLV in position to become bowl-eligible for

   first time since 2000, as RS frosh QB Clausen proving able reliever for injured

   starter Clayton. Popgun SDSU “O” unlikely to expose Rebels’ defensive

   shortcomings.

   (07-S. Diego St. 38-UNLV 30...U.24-18 U.49/275 S.26/122 U.18/29/1/207 S.17/23/1/196 S.0 U.0)

   (07-Sds +3 38-30 06-SDS -9 21-7 05-UNLV +9' 13-10...SR: San Diego State 10-7

   *HAWAII 47 - Idaho 17—Credit Idaho for at least taking some swings at

   favored opposition in recent weeks (Vandals have covered last 3, and 4 of 5).

   But after Boise battle, Idaho’s emotional tank could be empty vs. recent nemesis

   UH, which has won and covered easily last 4 meetings. True, Warrior Red Gun

   not as menacing as it was in June Jones’ days, but weak Vandal “D” (allowing

   5.8 ypc) can be exploited by any of the QBs that Greg McMackin might wish to

   utilize.

   (07-Hawaii 48-IDAHO 20...H.31-19 H.25/91 I.34/90 H.32/51/5/394 I.19/41/5/213 H.1 I.0)

   (07-Hawaii -24' 48-20 06-HAWAII -26' 68-10 05-Hawaii P 24-0...SR: Hawaii 7-1)

   ADDED GAMES

   Florida Atlantic 27 - ARKANSAS STATE 26—Hot FAU has won four straight,

   with QB Rusty Smith (11 TDP, 3 ints. during streak) regaining his 2007 form (32

   and 9 LY). But this is a tough field in Sun Belt play, and sagging ASU (now 4-

   5 TY; lost last 3 SU; lost last 5 vs. spread) playing first home game since Oct. 11.

   (07-FLA. ATL. 34-Ark. St. 31...F.19-14 A.35/125 F.39/105 F.22/42/2/268 A.19/33/1/131 F.1 A.0)

   (07-FAU -6' 34-31 06-FAU +6 29-0 05-ASU -8' 3-0 (OT)...SR: EVEN 2-2)

   *FLORIDA INTL. 23 - La.-Monroe 22—ULM happy to be back in the Sun

   Belt after being shellacked 59-0 at Ole Miss. FIU (4-5 SU, 6-2 vs. the spread)

   turning the corner after desperate 1-23 mark the L2Ys, and Golden Panthers

   3-0 vs. the spread TY in Miami. But QB McCall hitting only 49.8%, with 8 TDs

   and 8 interceptions. ULM (11-3 last 14 as Sun Belt dog) rarely out of games

   on its own level.

   (07-LA.-MON. 28-Fiu 14...L.21-15 L.40/160 F.38/125 L.17/24/0/270 F.15/36/1/198 L.1 F.0)

   (07-ULM -13' 28-14 06-Ulm P 35-0 05-Fiu +10 31-29...SR: La.-Monroe 3-1)

   MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST. 45 - North Texas 16—Since MTS can avoid only

   its 2nd non-losing campaign since ‘01, will lay lumber vs. defenseless, careless

   NT (49 ppg, 27 giveaways), ripe for 3rd straight blowout loss in series. Blue

   Raiders productive QB Craddock & his speedy WRs light board vs. Mean Green

   2ndary that’s allowed nation-worst 32 TDP.

   (07-Mts 48-N. TEXAS 28...21-21 M.42/132 N.22/87 N.25/45/4/296 M.22/38/0/203 M.0 N.1)

   (07-Mts -13 48-28 06-Mts +4 35-0 05-Unt +5' 14-7...SR: North Texas 5-2)

   *La.-Lafayette 34 - TROY 33—Recuperative powers of both will be tested

   after disheartening recent defeats. But with New Orleans Bowl berth likely on

   line, slight preference for experienced weaponry of ULL and sr. QB Desormeaux

   & RB Fenroy. Besides, Troy’s Richmond transfer QB L. Brown might need to ice

   arm after throwing 72 passes in last week’s bitter come-from-ahead loss at LSU!

   (07-Troy 48-LA.-LAF. 31...T.26-22 L.46/345 T.43/271 T.30/43/1/297 L.21/41/2/159 T.2 L.0)

   (07-Troy -9 48-31 06-TROY P 42-28 05-ULL -3' 31-28...SR: La.-Lafayette 8-3)

   SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 23

   *Connecticut 23 - SOUTH FLORIDA 21—Since the sputtering South Florida,

   “whole” equaling much less than the sum of its talented parts lately, compelled

   to back fundamentally-sound Huskies. Visiting UConn has top QB Lorenzen

   back from injury, features the nation’s leading rusher in Donald Brown, and

   possesses a lot more esprit de corps these days than troubled Bulls (lost 4 of last

   5). TV—ESPN

   (07-CON. 22-S. Fla. 15...C.20-18 S.44/253 C.46/159 C.13/26/1/194 S.16/30/2/189 C.0 S.0)

   (07-CONN. +4 22-15 06-USF -6' 38-16 05-CONN. +7 15-10...SR: South Florida 3-2)

   TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 25

   *BALL ST. vs. W. Michigan—Check http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]">www.goldsheet.com on Tuesday!

   (07-Ball St. 27-WMU 23...W.21-19 W.44/196 B.24/72 B.25/48/0/358 W.21/38/3/237 B.0 W.0)

   (07-Bsu -1 27-23 06-Wmu -3 41-27 05-Bsu +11' 60-57 (OT)...SR: Western Michigan 19-15)

   *NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. Navy—Check http://www.goldsheet.com [goldsheet.com]">www.goldsheet.com on

   Tuesday! CABLE TV—ESPN2

   (07-NAVY 35-Niu 24...Na.24-18 Na.60/359 Ni.44/149 Ni.21/35/1/206 Na.3/6/0/60 Na.0 Ni.0)

   (07-NAVY -16' 35-24...SR: Navy 1-0

   

   posted by phantom

   Nov. 20 2008 2:00pm
10. 0 likes

    Pointwise 11/19--11/24

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

    1--UTAH over Byu 38-17

    1--RICE over Marshall 45-17

    2--MEMPHIS over ucf 41-17

    3--TCU over Air Force 45-20

    3--nc state (+) over NORTH CAROLINA 24-26

    4--TULSA over Tulane 66-13

    5--Texas Tech (+) over OKLAHOMA 48-45

    5--VIRGINIA TECH over Duke 34-7

    UTAH 38 - Byu 17 - (6:00) -- Win here nails down MWC title for Utes. No punts

    in 63-14 rout of SDSt, with 5 Johnson TD passes in 1st half. Series is noted for

    extremely tight games, but TCU comparison can't be dismissed. Coog QB Hall

    now at 34/8, but check BYU allowing 33 ppg in last 3 RGs. Throw in revenge.

    RICE 45 - Marshall 17 - (3:30) -- Eliminate Texas, & the Owls are averaging 41

    ppg this year. Check Clement with 23 TD passes past 6 games, & a brilliant

    32/6 for the season, with 17 TD catches for Dillard. Herd: 17 pts or less in 7

    games thus far, in & off managing just 8 FDs in loss to previously 2-7 CentFla.

    MEMPHIS 41 - Central Florida 17 - (2:00) -- Two straight wins have Tigs at 5-5,

    so bowls are beckoning. Have huge score to settle, & with 306, 285 RYs last 2

    (Steele: 301 yds), no time like the present, as Knights field worst "O" in land.

    Four takeaways in CF's win over Marshall, but just 55 RYpg previous 4 games.

    TCU 45 - Air Force 20 - (3:30) -- Rested Frogs were held scoreless in final 51:16

    in 13-10 loss at Utah, despite 416-275 yd edge. Rolled, 41-7, off first setback,

    & stand at +122½ pts ATS in last 15 games. 'Force had 5-game run snapped

    by BYU, despite 323 RYs (28-10 2nd half deficit). But just 142 RYs in last RG.

    NORTH CAROLINA 26 - North Carolina State 24 - (12:00) -- 'Pack keeps on

    doing it: 5 straight covers, with Wilson at 11 TD passes last 6. Check 94 & 98

    RYs allowed last 2, altho NCSt not an overland giant. Tars suddenly being had,

    ceding 261 RYpg last 2, while posting only 13 & 11 FDs. Points are the play.

    TULSA 66 - Tulane 13 - (3:00) -- Five TOs, along with allowing TDs on INT & KO

    returns, in 70-30 'Cane destruction at hands of Houston. Oh, and a 641-yd "D"

    effort. But overwhelming bounceback assured, in light of decimated Wave

    woes. Just 67 RYpg last 4 (40-16 ppg deficit), & minus 118 pts last 7 games!

    Texas Tech 48 - OKLAHOMA 45 - (8:00) -- This one should take its place among

    all-time classic shootouts. No punts in Tech's annihilation of OkieSt. Check 69

    FDs & 1,208 yds in Raiders' wins over Texas & OklaSt, & >100 RYs in all 10

    games, with Harrell now at a stunning 36/5. Sooners? Try 51 ppg in their last

    11 outings (58 ppg last 4). Try Bradford at a matching 38/6. And try balanced

    328 RYs, 325 PYs in last outing. But also allowing 34 ppg last 5 games. Tech!

    VIRGINIA TECH 34 - Duke 7 - (5:30) -- Obvious that Devils have run out of gas.

    A 300-yd deficit at Clemson; 86 RYpg last 8 games; & pair of 14-pt ATS losses

    last 2 wks. Nearly a 200-RY drop in a week for the Hokies (Evans: from 254 to

    43), but still formidable, defensively, & have feasted on the Imps (Wise Points).

    Ball State 34 - CENTRAL MICHIGAN 20 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Perfect & 14th

    ranked Cards just keep on doing it, behind Davis' leadership (20/6), & running of

    Lewis (1,273 yds). Chips in off blowing a 24-pt lead, before prevailing in OT,

    despite 241-80 RY edge. LeFevour & Co provide quality opposition, but BSt call.

    THURSDAY

    Miami-Florida 24 - GEORGIA TECH 20 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- No breathing room in

    'Cane games, with 6 of last 7 decided by TD or less. Now in atop ACC Coastal,

    after holding Va & VaTech to 77 & 78 RYs, & in possession of land's 13th best "D".

    Also note visitor is 7-1 ATS in UM games by 64 pts. Tech: 2,079-1,021 RY edge

    in lined games, but only covers since 10/4 have come by 2 & ½ pts (-35½ last 4).

    FRIDAY

    Miami-Ohio 27 - TOLEDO 23 - (7:00) -- Pair of 2-8 squads. Rockets covered in

    final 3:42 LW, but 4 straight losses, & they've allowed >30 pts 15 times since

    LY. 'Hawks stayed with BallSt until late going, which pushed dog edge in MU

    games to 17-5 ATS. Can't run (#116) but QB Raudabauch may provide edge.

    Buffalo 31- BOWLING GREEN 24 - (7:00) -- Balance! Check 224 RYs, 252

    PYs in Bulls' OT win at Akron. UB: 33 ppg last 5 behind Willy (18/4) & Starks

    (164 RYpg last 2). Check 17½ minute edge vs Zips. BG can't run, nor contain

    the run, so it's up to Sheehan, who had 2 TD passes yr ago. Not enough now.

    Fresno State 26 - SAN JOSE STATE 23 - (9:30 - ESPN2) -- Impossible to step

    out with either squad. Bulldogs bowl eligible, despite 9 straight ATS losses,

    allowing 30 ppg in those 9. But Spartans an astounding 550-7 RY deficit last

    2 wks, with QB Reed their only "O". Are 0-4 ATS lately, by 57 pts. We pass.

    SATURDAY

    TEMPLE 31 - Eastern Michigan 21 - (1:00) -- Three fumbles killed Owls in tite

    41-38 loss to Kent. Ten TOs in their last 3 losses, & have allowed 622 RYs last

    2 games, after holding previous 4 foes to 57 RYpg. Opposite for EM, which

    has decent run "D" last 2, but mauled prior to that. Plus 24 pts ATS on MAC rd.

    RUTGERS 48 - Army 24 - (12:00) -- From 1-5 start to 5-5 currently for smoking

    Scarlets, who've covered 6 straight, the last 3 by 75 pts, behind 12 Teel TD

    throws. But Cadets also profitable, with 6-1 ATS run, by 89½ pts, with Mooney

    motoring for 994 RYs last 6. But Army was massacred yr ago (Wise Points).

    Illinois 24 - NORTHWESTERN 23 - (3:30) -- Illini could become 1st team since

    '65 (Michigan) to follow Rose Bowl campaign with losing record. Rank 15th on

    "O", but just not doing it. 'Cats 8-3 SU, but in off 127 & 122 RY deficits. Note

    chalk covering by 15, 18, & 23 pts in NW BigTen hosters TY. Just not involved.

    CINCINNATI 31 - Pittsburgh 30 - (7:00) -- We rarely stray from the dog when

    Pitt takes the field (21-5 ATS), so why not another? Only 39 RYs for McCoy vs

    L'Ville (5 takeaways), but note 762 yds previous 5, & Pitt at 35.5 ppg last 6. UC

    in control of BigEast & BCS destiny, but still a bit iffy, overland. Call this tight.

    WAKE FOREST 17 - Boston College 15 - (3:30) -- Just 11 ppg for Deacons in

    5 of last 7 outings. Not much, overland (<113 yds 6 times TY), but a decent

    "D", & Skinner sporadically productive. Eagle "D" has 10 INTs last 3 wks, but

    also can't run (97 ypg 5 games previous to LW). Call defensive struggle here.

    PURDUE 33 - Indiana 13 - (12:00) -- Matchup of 3-8 squads. Chance for Tiller

    to go out with decent showing, despite failing to top 7 pts 4 of last 7. Indy minus

    120 pts ATS last 11 games, allowing 34+ pts 7 of last 9. Last 2 weeks: 18 FDs,

    a 625-256 RY deficit, as well as a 89-17 pt deficit. Series host the way to go.

    OHIO STATE 31 - Michigan 17 - (12:00 - ABC) -- First-ever 8-loss season for

    Wolverines, who rank 95th in rushing "D". But note a 413-142 RY edge past 2

    wks, while covering their last RG by 30½ pts. Bucks: 40 ppg last 3 RGs, but

    just 11 ppg in last 2 HGs, with the visitor covering the last eight OSU games .

    Wells: 140, 143 RYs last 2 wks, & Bucks own 7th best "D". But Michigan call.

    Florida State 22 - MARYLAND 20 - (7:45) -- Bowden suspended 5 WRs in loss

    to BC (3 INTs), thus tipping former balance. Check 13 TOs in 'Noles 3 losses.

    Terps in off taking UNC in final 1:42 (8:42 drive), coming from 285-RY deficit to

    120-RY edge in a week. Dog is now plus 142½ pts ATS in Maryland games.

    KANSAS STATE 38 - Iowa State 30 - (3:30) -- Yet another dilemma. Sieve "D"

    'Cats have allowed 58, 58, 56 pts in last 3 HGs, & in off 610-247 yd deficit

    hosting Nebraska. But check 9 straight losses for Cycs, allowing 52 ppg in

    those 9. Currently on a 1-5 ATS slide by 73 pts, but not bad, stat-wise, last 3.

    VANDERBILT 20 - Tennessee 10 - (12:30) -- Hooray! Vandy now bowl eligible

    for 1st time in 26 years. Nickson: 3 TD passes, & 118 RYs in solid upset of

    Kentucky (1st game above 14 pts since Sept 20), & now +61 pts ATS this yr.

    Vols sinking fast: 3 straight losses, 63 RYpg last 6, & Fullmer playing out string.

    MISSISSIPPI STATE 22 - Arkansas 19 - (2:30) -- Host series, so we meekly go

    along. Bulldogs let us down LW, as 7-5 lead lead in 2nd, turned into 32-7 loss.

    Killed by the punt return. In Tide/OleMiss sandwich, & not much "O". But solid

    "D". Hogs ceding 34 ppg in last 14 lined tilts, with just 50 & RYs last 2 games.

    Akron 38 - OHIO U 20 - (3:30) -- Bobcats in search of an offense, managing only

    11 ppg in their last 3 outings, while posting only 71 RYpg in those 3. Zips just

    the opposite, with 42, 47, 40 pts in their last 3 tilts, with "balance" their byword.

    Jacquemain (5 TDs last 2) & Kennedy (1,047 RYs) lead this rather comfy win.

    WYOMING 24 - Colorado State 20 - (2:00) -- Nearly 3 straight covers for the

    'Boys (232 RYpg in those 3, with a decent run "D"). Led UNLV in the 4th, &

    covered their last HG by 19½ pts. Host team is now on an 11-0 ATS run in

    Ram contests, & CSt is allowing 40 ppg away this season. That's enuff for us.

    NOTRE DAME 38 - Syracuse 10 - (2:30 - NBC) -- Incredibly, the Irish nearly

    squandered 20-pt lead in final 1:39, in squeaking win over Navy. Have a 10-1

    TO deficit last 2 wks, with 6 INTs from Clausin. But check allowing only 24

    FDs combined, to BC & Navy. 'Cuse: 7, 8 FDs; 168, 147 yds last 2 wks. Rout!

    Washington 34 - WASHINGTON STATE 27 - (3:00 - FSN) -- Now or never for

    Huskies, who stand at 0-10 SU (1-9 ATS), allowing 42 ppg in their last 12 tilts.

    But check amazing 524-91 pt deficit for Coogs in lined games TY. Two straight

    covers, but still minus 197 pts ATS for the season. Means something to them.

    PENN STATE 41 - Michigan State 17 - (3:30) -- A win here, & the Lions are Big

    10 champs. Have a combined pt edge of 433-131 thus far, behind superbly

    balanced "O", & 5th ranked "D". Let us down with 1st-half walk-thru vs Indy,

    but focused here. Spartans need it for share of title, but revenge rears head.

    VIRGINIA 24 - Clemson 22 - (12:00) -- All the earmarks of a normal ACC nailbiter,

    with neither anything special (both 5-5 SU). Cavs have been held under 18 pts

    6 times this year, but are +75½ pts ATS in last 6 outings. Tigers are in off rare

    impressive showing (326 PYs), but running game still a mystery. To the wire.

    Stanford 24 - CALIFORNIA 23 - (3:30) -- Card got cover vs USC on 18-yd pass

    on final play, after Carroll "iced" would-be FG attempt. Ouch! Stanford stats

    well (234 RYpg last 8, behind Gerhart), & just 11 pts from 9-0 ATS run. Bears:

    173-27 & 194-85 RY deficits last 2 games (13, 11 FDs). Visiting series again.

    Louisiana Tech 38 - NEW MEXICO STATE 24 - (4:00) -- Three straight wins for

    Bulldogs, who came from 38-35 deficit, for 45-38 win over UtahSt. Check a

    697-257 RY edge for Tech in last 3 games. Ags minus 9 RYs LW, & 21 RYpg

    last 5 outings. Are minus 126½ ATS 10 of last 12, & Holbrook is in off 5 sacks.

    BOISE STATE 41 - Nevada 38 - (4:00) -- Bucking either squad in this situation is

    frightening. Boise +59 pts ATS away TY, (31 unanswered pts to wind up LW),

    but 'Pack has >40 pts 7 times already, & has a 2,418-368 RY edge in its last 7

    games, with Kaepernick in off 147 RY, 192 PY effort, & 388 Tuau RYs last 2.

    East Carolina 23 - UAB 20 - (7:00) -- Blazers latest to take advantage of Tulane

    & its injuries, in 41-24 win. But note ranking just 117th on "D" before that one,

    & allowing 33 ppg in last 15 lined games. Pirates: just 2 TDs in their last 3

    games. Can't run, but a decent "D". Dog is 9-2 ATS in ECU games by 118 pts.

    HOUSTON 57 - Utep 44 - (3:30) -- Wow! Coogs' 70-30 rout of Tulsa made many

    fans stand up & take notice, but their "O" has been super all yr. Check 3,492

    yds in last 6 games, with Keenum's 6 TDs LW, upping his total for the year to

    35/9. Miner QB Vittatoe: 25 TD passes last 7 tilts, & Utep +33 pts ATS last 2.

    Iowa 27 - MINNESOTA 20 - (7:00) -- Three straight losses for Gophs, with a 317

    RY deficit in those 3, altho they did put it to us in tight loss to Wisc (Weber: 3

    TD passes). Are 0-2 ATS at home lately, by 44½ pts. Hawks in off 13-pt ATS

    loss, despite 248-86 RY edge. Greene (1,585 RYs, 6.2 ypr) is the difference.

    Oregon State 24 - ARIZONA 22 - (7:00) -- Two more wins for Beavs, & RoseBowl

    is theirs for 1st time since '64. OSt: allowing 73 RYpg last 5 games; held Cal to

    11 FDs; & Jacquizz at 1,233 RYs. And try +108 pts ATS last 7 games. 'Zona

    not at its best in this type setup (Wise Points), but note 30 FDs & 527 yds at

    Oregon, while ranking 14th in the land, defensively. But the Beavs own series.

    West Virginia 23 - LOUISVILLE 20 - (12:00) -- Bye week came at right time for

    Mounties, who've averaged just 4.2 & 2.3 ypr in their last 2 outings. Cards at

    5-5, with nation's 7th ranked run "D" (only Syracuse ran on 'em). The host is

    plus 57½ pts ATS in 'Ville's last 5 games, & Cards well remember LY's wrencher.

    MEMPHIS 41 - Central Florida 17 - (2:00) -- Two straight wins have Tigs at 5-5,

    so bowls are beckoning. Have huge score to settle, & with 306, 285 RYs last 2

    (Steele: 301 yds), no time like the present, as Knights field worst "O" in land.

    Four takeaways in CF's win over Marshall, but just 55 RYpg previous 4 games.

    Unlv 38 - SAN DIEGO STATE 10 - (8:00) -- Season mercifully comes to close for

    hapless Aztecs, who stand at 1-10 SU, with a 323-94 pt deficit in their last 7

    games, while ranking 108th on "O" & 112th on "D". Vegas needs it for .500

    campaign, & has topped 26 pts 7 of last 8 (TCU). Despite Rebs' lousy rd log.

    LSU 30 - Mississippi 27 - (3:30) -- Bengals: 4 drainers in previous 5 games,

    including LW's overcoming of a 31-3 deficit in the 3rd. Solid rush "D", but just

    4-14 ATS lately, with visitor 21-7 ATS in LSU tilts. Rebs have been in every

    game, & in off 59-0 blasting of Monroe (350 RYs, 3 Snead TDs). Rebels yell!

    HAWAII 44 - Idaho 14 - (11:05) -- First of 3 HGs to wind up for now 5-5 'Bows.

    Have allowed 31, 30, & 30 pts last 3 outings, but should take quick command

    of a Vandal squad which has allowed 50 ppg in its 5 RGs to date. Sure, Idaho

    has 215 or more RYs in 3 of its last 5 tilts, but 31-0 deficit windup LW says it all.

    SUNDAY

    SOUTH FLORIDA 27 - Connecticut 22 - (8:00) -- Amazingly, Bull QB Grothe

    has tossed no less than 8 INTs in his last 3 games (all upset losses). Just 2

    covers for SFla, which is minus 145 pts ATS in 9 of its last 10 games. UConn

    came from a 5-0 TO deficit, to a 3-0 TO edge, & Brown now at 1,537 RYs. Tight.

    TUESDAY

    BALL STATE 37 - Western Michigan 24 - (8:00) -- Assuming Cards take CMich,

    they will stand at a perfect 11-0 here. Plus 81½ pt ATS for the season, & at 37

    ppg in their last 12 contests. WMich at 9 wins for just 3rd time its history, with

    Hiller now at 33/6, & note covering last RG by 14½. But BSt keeps it going.

    Navy 33 - NORTHERN ILLINOIS 27 - (7:00 - ESPN2) -- Nearly a spectacular

    comeback win for Mids at NoDame, but no cigar, & note only 11 FDs, along

    with 100-yd deficit. Have allowed >26 pts 15 times since LY. NIU 3-0 ATS vs

    non-MAC schools, but formerly sturdy "D" has allowed 39 ppg last 2 contests.

    ADDED GAMES

    Fla Atlantic 23 - ARKANSAS ST 20

    FLA INTERN'L 27 - La-Monroe 24

    MID TENN ST 46 - North Texas 10

    TROY 23 - La-Lafayette 17

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 20 2008 2:01pm
11. 0 likes

    CKO

    11 CONNECTICUT over *South Florida

    Late Score Forecast:

    CONNECTICUT 31 - *South Florida 20

    (Sunday, November 23)

    Connecticut isn’t getting nearly the respect it deserves. The Huskies offense boasts the country’s leading rusher

    in Donald Brown (1537 YR, 5.6 ypc, 16 touchdowns), and the attack should be more productive now that starting

    sr. QB Tyler Lorenzen has returned from injury (started last week at Syracuse after missing 4 games). UConn is

    15-4 SU with Lorenzen at the controls. But the Huskies also have an underrated defense, which ranks 9th in the

    country in pass efficiency defense, 19th in scoring “D,” and allows just 3.6 ypc. After a sparkling 5-0 start,

    disappointing South Florida has dropped 4 of last 5. In the last 3 games (all SU & spread losses) USF QB Matt

    Grothe has thrown 8 ints., not out of character for Grothe considering his career 39 int./38 TD pass mark against

    BCS teams. UConn picked off Grothe twice in last season’s game, as the Huskies won despite Brown getting just

    1 carry (Andre Dixon rushed for 167 yards for the Huskies in that rainy affair).

    10 ARKANSAS over *Mississippi State

    Late Score Forecast:

    ARKANSAS 24 - *Mississippi State 13

    Long-time SEC scouts report disappointed MSU players not easily regaining focus and intensity in early practices

    for Arkansas, following all-out, bowl-eliminating loss vs Bama, coupled with “Egg Bowl” rival Ole Miss on deck.

    And scouts seriously doubt Bulldogs heavily-criticized Gulf Coast attack (just 14 ppg) suddenly erupts vs.

    ripening and refreshed Arkansas defense (off needed bye week) getting solid interior play from mammoth 6-3, 305

    sr. NT Mitchell & 6-3, 289 DT Sheppard (10 TFL, 4.5 sacks). That’s an unfavorable scenario for MSU’s limited QB

    Lee (only 139 ypg passing, 5 TDP), ill-supported by sagging ground game mustering 147 YR in last 3 SEC games.

    On other hand, Hogs multi-tasking, speedy RB M. Smith (SEC-leading 150 all-purpose ypg) continues to roll vs.

    Bulldogs thinning front 7 (DT Bowman joins MLB Chaney on sidelines with season-ending injury). And battletested

    sr. QB C. Dick licking his chops after career-best 14 of 17 for 199 yds. & 4 TDP in 45-31 series victory LY.

    So, good bet bowl-seeking Arkansas captures 10th straight in series in Starkville, where MSU is only 6-14 SU vs.

    major foes since ‘05.

    10 *NOTRE DAME over Syracuse

    Late Score Forecast:

    *NOTRE DAME 41 - Syracuse 10

    The fact Syracuse finally hit the eject button on HC Greg Robinson after last week’s loss to UConn merely confirms

    one of the worst-kept secrets in college football. And it hardly presages an emotional Orange effort for its

    departing coach, as the team rarely rallied for Robinson and his staff when it might have been able to help save

    their jobs earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Charlie Weis not likely to bypass a chance to build some goodwill with a

    growing legion of disgruntled Domers. So no surprise if Notre Dame “O” goes full throttle, expanding upon

    emboldened infantry that Weis finally unleashed vs. Navy, while capable Irish “D” throttles a Cuse attack that can’t

    get out of its own way (QBs Dantley & Robinson a combined 11 of 42 passing for 86 YP and sacked 10 times in

    last 2 games...really!).

    10 BYU over *Utah

    Late Score Forecast:

    BYU 27 - *Utah 24

    Yes, 11-0 Utah is fighting for an undefeated season and a berth in one of the BCS bowls. Too bad that will make

    their bitter rivals to the south all the more eager to upset the Utes’ applecart. The underdog is 8-2 the last ten

    meetings in this classic rivalry series. And the Cougars have the veteran QBing in Max Hall and enough balance

    on offense to keep Utah nervous all afternoon, and even to spring the upset. Note that Utah’s schedule has been

    surprisingly lenient TY, with Michigan a mere shadow of its former self. In their home games vs. Oregon State and

    TCU, the Utes won by only three points each time—vs. the Beavers on last-second FG, and vs. the Horned Frogs

    on a last minute-TD after TCU missed two FGs in the fourth quarter. No surprise if this is another nail-biter, nor a

    win by the 10-1 Cougars.

    10* KANSAS CITY over Buffalo

    Late Score Forecast:

    *KANSAS CITY 27 - Buffalo 19

    (Sunday, November 23)

    Now that Larry Johnson, Kansas City’s hammering RB (67 YR in his first game in four weeks vs. New Orleans last

    Sunday) is back in action to keep defenses honest, value lies with the Chiefs, whose youngsters have spent

    much of the early part of the season learning the ropes. Now, with 10 games under their belts, they should have

    the edge over visiting Buffalo, traveling on short rest after Monday Night Football and suffering from some attrition

    on defense. Chiefs’ QB Tyler Thigpen is now playing with confidence, hitting 60% with 8 TDs vs. only 1

    interception in a four-game stretch. Coach Herm Edwards has adapted the offense to the mobility of Thigpen, who

    has helped Chiefs earn three covers their last four games

    TOTALS:

    UNDER (42) in the New England-Miami game—The Dolphins can’t count on surprising Bill Belichick twice in a row with their “Wildcat” formation;

    Miami 5-1 “under” at home; UNDER (42) in the Carolina-Atlanta game—Panthers’ defense very solid; both teams prefer the power run in order to control the ball.

    NINE-RATED GAMES:

    CINCINNATI (+10) at Pittsburgh (Thursday)—Bengals have jelled (such as they can) well enough to fully stress the laboring

    Steelers...

    RUTGERS (-17) vs. Army—Scarlet Knights know how to stop the option, can become bowl eligible here, and have exploded on offense to cover

    five straight...

    PURDUE (-13) vs. Indiana—Last game for Joe Tiller & Curtis Painter catches Hoosier defense in distress...

    MINNESOTA (+5) vs. Iowa—

    Vastly-improved Gopher defense should make life miserable for shaky Iowa QBs...

    HAWAII (-23) vs. Idaho—Defensively-superior UH has had extra rest,

    while Vandals taking long trip after all-out effort vs. hated Boise

    __________________

    

    posted by phantom

    Nov. 20 2008 2:03pm