Why college football teasers don’t pay

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DIRECT FROM NEVADA WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH

WHY COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEASERS DON’T PAY

Recently I mentioned that several underdogs had been winning outright in college football. Those of you who like winning longshot bets when you wager would be well served to consider moneyline options on your college underdogs as a result. Those of you who like playing teasers in college football though, should have your heads examined!

Unfortunately, there’s a lot more of the latter group than the former group. Squares (the wagering public) loves betting on favorites. They figure the better team is going to win the game. What’s the point of taking a risk on the lesser team when you might just get embarrassed? You see all of those blowout scores on the bottom of the TV screen. Why not just bet favorites and play it safe?

*Squares lay the points with favorites, often not even caring about what the line is.

*Squares will take favorites on the moneyline since “all they have to do is win straight up.” They will lay ridiculous prices for the right to do this. Moneylines are stacked against the public pretty dramatically on these options. It’s one of the dumbest bets on the board.

*Squares who are smart enough to see that moneylines don’t offer fair value will still use college favorites in teasers. This is pretty much the same thing. College teasers don’t pay off anywhere near fair value because the value of a point is worth much less in a volatile sport where games can blow up in any direction.

In all of these cases, the fact that underdogs win a lot of games straight up proves to be a killer. You’re not going to cover the spread with favorites in a blanket strategy. There are certainly favorites that make sense (like my GAME OF THE MONTH for November last week on Ohio State over Northwestern). You’re not going to win your moneyline bets, because those upset losses are just brutal when you’re laying the extra juice. And, teasers aren’t going to work either. It only takes one surprise to mess up your day.

If you’re playing nothing but favorites, or A LOT of favorites, you’re going to bleed your money away.

I made a list of favorites “in the strike zone” that lost outright last week. What I’m talking about here are the medium sized favorites (about 6-10 points or so) that are common choices for the public in gimmick bets. They’ll either bet the moneyline, or use these teams in teasers because the favorites just have to win the game to get them their money. Check out all of these favorites who couldn’t win their games last week:

Illinois (-8) lost to Western Michigan 23-17

Duke (-4) lost to NC State 27-17

Penn State (-7.5) lost to Iowa 24-23

West Virginia (-7) lost to Cincinnati 26-23 in overtime

Minnesota (-7) lost to Michigan 29-6

San Jose State (-7) lost to Louisiana Tech 21-0

New Mexico (-6) lost to UNLV 27-20

Louisiana Lafayette (-10) lost to UTEP 37-24

There were some near misses too. East Carolina won by a field goal in overtime as an 8-point favorite over Marshall. Colorado was a 10-point favorite that had to rally for a 4-point win over Iowa State.

Of course, we can’t forget about Tennessee (-25) losing outright to Wyoming! That kind of game is popular with teaser players because they figure it’s going to be a blowout anyway so those free points make it a sure thing. They’ll move Tennessee down to -19 on two-teamers figuring they’ll at least win by 20 or 21 points. Squares LOVE putting big favorites in three-teamers that move the line 10 points, and four-teamers that move the line 13 points. Tennessee missed the spread by more than 30 points!

I’ve talked often in the past about a “basic strategy” approach in the NFL that uses only games that cross both the 3 and the 7 (key numbers in football) in one fell swoop. There’s enough parity in the NFL, that taking those extra points in teasers have historically been a sound move. Any other NFL teasers won’t win over the long haul though. There isn’t a basic strategy for colleges that I’ve seen work very well. Maybe if you combine it with handicapping (teams a sharp handicapper likes---like Ohio State over Northwestern---and the addition of crossing critical numbers).

Squares don’t have sound strategies, so they’re not likely to isolate teams that are going to make sense for teasers anyway.

Please keep all of the following in mind if you’re thinking about playing college teasers this weekend…

*Upsets happen a lot more often than you realize. Even when ESPN keeps calling every Saturday “Upset Saturday,” they still happen more often than you realize! “All they have to do is win the game” is not a sound approach for trying to pick winners.

*College football is very volatile. Turnovers are more common at this level than in the pro’s (particularly once you’re outside of the 40 best teams). Special teams play is much more uneven from top to bottom. Points are scored outside of the standard offense vs. defense scenario much more often. Points are less valuable in terms of what they mean in the Vegas line as a result.

*Games with high spreads are MORE vulnerable to erratic play. If the power team shows up, they can run up the score. But, we’re seeing a tendency in recent years for those top teams to play flat when the opponent doesn’t get their juices flowing (this year’s Big 12 South is an exception). Turning a 35-point favorite into a 29-point favorite in two-teamers, or a 25-point favorite in three-teamers is of absolutely no value if the favorite doesn’t show up with intensity.

*Las Vegas doesn’t pay at true odds in college football with moneylines, teasers, parlays, really anything! It’s more like a roulette wheel where you’re betting for the fun of it. Now, serious handicappers can find an edge betting sides and totals against 11/10 vigorish. Serious handicappers DON’T PLAY TEASERS and don’t lay moneyline favorite prices either. Sportsbooks exist because the public likes to have fun when they bet. Gamblers pay a price for that fun. If you’re serious about winning, you need to realize what happens in college football so you don’t make the same dumb mistakes the public is making. Don’t try to get cute with teasers or favorite moneylines. Only bet underdog moneylines when you’re very confident of an upset, or at least that the oddsmakers have overpriced the favorite by a good bit. Florida made sense over Ohio State as a moneyline dog two years ago in the championship if you were confident that the public and media were too much in love with Ohio State. Same story last year in the Super Bowl with the Giants over the Patriots.